GSNP during October

[medicjenn76]

Hey everyone,
I'm in the process of planning a section along the AT from Clingmans Dome back to Fontana starting Oct.5. I have an over night stay at Hike Inn already lined up as well as they are shuttling me. I have never been in the Smokies during this time of year and can't wait. Hoping for some really great fall color. Besides reserving shelter space ASAP, what can I expect (not that you can predict) for weather that time or year? I've read everything from 40's-high 20's at night and possibly even snow. Can anyone offer some other advice? Thanks in advance..

[MuddyWaters]

Well, worst case would be like Hurricane Sandy. About 3 ft of snow requiring hikers to be rescued.....

Probably best time of year. You should have great time.

[TNhiker]

Yeah....hurricane sandy dumped many feet of snow on the ridgeline....

i plowed through 3-4 feet of rapidly melting snow (it was very warm a few days later) to get to icewater shelter.....

october----it can be warm or it could be cold....

[Dan Roper]

October is remarkably variable, so you'll have to judge as best you can as the long-range forecasts become shorter range, adjusting your clothing and rain gear accordingly. I've been comfortable in shorts and short sleeves in November. I've seen it 35 degrees and 40 mile-an-hour winds on October 1 at Clingmans Dome. Fortunately, weather forecasts are generally pretty accurate that time of year. If you catch things right, starting just after a cold front has passed through, you can often expect uninterrupted sunny skies with cold nights and cool days. But if you arrive just before a cold front comes through, it can be very hot day one, very wet and cold day two. So monitor forecasts and make adjustments.

Water in early October can be pretty scarce, especially at places like Derrick Knob Shelter and Mollies Ridge Shelter. So check for water conditions. If water is scarce, carry extra capacity and load up whenever you do find it.

Early October is usually too early for real color.

[illabelle]

We did that same section, Clingman's to Fontana in mid-October a few days before Sandy went through. Other than being chilly when we started at Clingman's, we had pleasant weather.

[moldy]

Seeing how they have already sidetracked this to Sandy. Just for fun, Go to "Trailjournals.com" Hiker "Solo" Steve Ainsworth, 2012. October 29,30,31. This is an example of what not to do. The truth is that a big Winter storm for early October is pretty rare. I hike GSMNP in October frequently and have had great weather and hiking conditions. I would bring a 20 degree bag and a small tent, just in case. It is also more crowded than you might imagine. October 5th on most years will be at least 2 weeks from peak Fall colors and on some years it's quite green. You should see a bear or two especially if you hike on into dusk. The bears don't hibernate up there, they tend to move to a lower altitude. You will have a great trip.

[Rain Man]

I have had good luck hiking in the GSMNP in October. Then again, I rely on good weather forecasting. Here ya go --

GSMNP weather site. (http://www.outragegis.com/weather/grsm/)

[HooKooDooKu]

It is highly unlikely that you will encounter snow in October.
While there is always the possibility of a one-off event (such as Sandy) most the snow that does fall in GSMNP does so in December, January, and February.
Even then, 'typical' weather patterns have day time highs rising above freezing at even Clingman's Dome. So the snow that does fall doesn't stay around.
I would say that if you were to look at the historical data from the web cams that watch over the Smokies, there is only about a 20% chance of seeing any snow on the ground for a given day during these three months, and less than a 1% chance of seeing snow on any given day in October.

Typical weather patterns have day time hi/lo temps along the ridge line to be 50's/30's, with typical variations easily allowing for a range of 60's/20's. While not impossible, it is unlikely that you will encounter temperatures below mid 20's along the ridgeline that time of year.

[TNhiker]

Seeing how they have already sidetracked this to Sandy. Just for fun, Go to "Trailjournals.com" Hiker "Solo" Steve Ainsworth, 2012. October 29,30,31. This is an example of what not to do. The truth is that a big Winter storm for early October is pretty rare.




you kinda contradict what you are saying........

Steve wasnt exactly the definition of what not to do as you say that a snowstorm in october is rare.....

He planned for what would be an "average" october but got stuck in a rare snowstorm (due to sandy)....

[HooKooDooKu]

October 5th on most years will be at least 2 weeks from peak Fall colors and on some years it's quite green.
Fall colors begin at the upper elevations as early as September.
In a typical year, leaves reach their peak colors in mid-October around the middle elevations (~4,000).
This peak then travels down the mountain where the lowest elevations usually reaches their peak in late-October.

So starting at Clingman's Dome on October 5th, you should see some fall color. But moldy is right in that you will be too early to see a mountain side in full of color.

[medicjenn76]

Thank you all so very much for your insight and advice... A wealth of knowledge...