PDA

View Full Version : Where is the southbound bubble???



ColleenGoldhorn
09-24-2016, 00:14
Hello!

I was planning on completing a thru hike this year but had to get off the trail due to an illness in July. I was planning on getting back on around Harper's Ferry and head SOBO next week to knock out another 700 miles before to year is over.

I know there isn't technically a southbound bubble, but does anyone know if the larger concentration of southbound hikers have already pasted this point or where they're at now?

Thanks so much happy hiking!

Engine
09-24-2016, 05:24
By this point, the south bounders are spread pretty thin, it would be hard to call any section of them a "concentration". But, I would think you could catch the middle of the string between Harpers Ferry and Shenandoah about now.

map man
09-24-2016, 08:33
Here is a table showing typical progress from a study of SOBO completers who journaled at trailjournals.com (Engine's estimate of somewhere between Harpers Ferry and Waynesboro right now is right on the money):

Med. Date.....Mean Date..........Landmark
June 23.............June 24..............Katahdin
July 8................July 10...............Stratton
July 20..............July 21................Gorham
Aug. 1...............July 31...............Glencliff
Aug. 21.............Aug. 23...............Kent
Aug. 31.............Sept. 4................Delaware Water Gap
Sept. 14............Sept. 20..............Harpers Ferry
Sept. 24............Sept. 30..............Waynesboro
Oct. 17..............Oct. 23...............Damascus
Nov. 11.............Nov. 12...............Fontana
Nov. 21.............Nov. 23...............Springer

jimmyjam
09-24-2016, 10:41
I talked to the people at Standing Bear last night and they had 16 hikers on Thursday. No breakdown into sobo/section/nobo etc.

b-square
09-24-2016, 13:05
Map Man - very interesting table there - did you find that on TJ or I guess the better question for me is - do you have one for 2016 NOBO's? Realizing most are done - I'd just be interested in seeing past progressions.

LoneRidgeRunner
09-24-2016, 13:17
Last couple years I been doing sections in western NC north of the Smokies and being meeting SOBO thrus in this area from late October into November and a few even in early December. The highest numbers have been in late October and November.

SawnieRobertson
09-24-2016, 14:40
What would we do without you, Map Man? Bravo!
Here is a table showing typical progress from a study of SOBO completers who journaled at trailjournals.com (Engine's estimate of somewhere between Harpers Ferry and Waynesboro right now is right on the money):

Med. Date.....Mean Date..........Landmark
June 23.............June 24..............Katahdin
July 8................July 10...............Stratton
July 20..............July 21................Gorham
Aug. 1...............July 31...............Glencliff
Aug. 21.............Aug. 23...............Kent
Aug. 31.............Sept. 4................Delaware Water Gap
Sept. 14............Sept. 20..............Harpers Ferry
Sept. 24............Sept. 30..............Waynesboro
Oct. 17..............Oct. 23...............Damascus
Nov. 11.............Nov. 12...............Fontana
Nov. 21.............Nov. 23...............Springer

map man
09-24-2016, 18:02
Map Man - very interesting table there - did you find that on TJ or I guess the better question for me is - do you have one for 2016 NOBO's? Realizing most are done - I'd just be interested in seeing past progressions.

Here is the one for NOBOs (it's an article here at WB and Table 3 has the progression):

http://whiteblaze.net/forum/content.php/44-AT-Hiking-Rates-Section-by-Section

Here is the article for SOBOs. The progression is in the last comment on the article:

http://whiteblaze.net/forum/content.php/697-Southbound-AT-Hiking-Rates

There are a lot of interesting articles here at WB full of useful information but they are not as easy to find as they used to be (some have also been cut). They can be accessed over in the left-hand column of the home page under the heading, "Departments."

ARambler
09-24-2016, 19:23
Of course mapman is a god but I think there are many bubbles in the tail.
I hiked nobo to Franconia Notch, NH on Thursday 9/22 million and saw several hopeful sobos.
Go slow or go nobo and you will see lots of sobos.

ARambler
09-24-2016, 19:26
Million = nobo to Tim Cookies.

greensleep
09-24-2016, 20:51
Mapman, thanks! Your info/stats will definitely help me in my sobo planning.

V Eight
09-25-2016, 07:56
I have been seeing 3/5 Southbound thur hikers a day somewher between
Bland & Daleville,over the last month or so. In that time frame I have been out around 15 days.

V8

Capt.Scott
09-25-2016, 15:48
I just hiked SOBO thru MA/ CT into NY. Around 9/11 met SOBOs going fast with deadlines. Later I came across what I believe was the tail end of SOBOers and hiked with them into NY. I am also trying to figure when these hikers that I met will be in VA.

Kaptainkriz
09-25-2016, 19:30
Just saw "midwest" working south at Rock Spring shelter in SNP.