View Full Version : NOBO Starting Dates
blackdog
11-30-2016, 10:54
My thru-hike isn't until 2018 but since I'm trying to flesh out all of my gear, I am really trying to pinpoint a start date. I am seriously trying to avoid the bubble at all costs - I know that its inevitable but I'm hoping to get somewhat of a head start so that me and my dog have a little bit of time to settle in to a rythym.
I am from New England and the prospect of starting in the cold is not something I'm adverse to. I know how to get warm andand stay warm, and I know how to avoid hypothermia. My dog is also very good in the cold and will have booties and a coat with her in cold areas anyway.
I am currently thinking of starting a few or ciuple days before March 1st to avoid that huge bubble that starts that day. I would love to hear from some people who started the last week of February and what that was like.
I dont think starting later is a great idea for me personally.because I want as much time as possible between me and October 15th.
illabelle
11-30-2016, 16:08
If you're comfortable in cold weather, maybe you'd should consider coming down and getting the Smokies done first, then have your dog join you at Springer. When you get up to Fontana, you can sprint ahead of the crowd and won't have to board the dog, just keep on going.
soumodeler
11-30-2016, 17:54
The crowds now pretty much start in early Feb and go until mid April.
Personally I would start in mid to late April to avoid the crowds.
Slo-go'en
11-30-2016, 18:22
It no longer matters when you start, it will be busy. The one good thing about starting before March is it thins out real quick. But then the ones who started later begin to catch up since you've been doing low mileage due to weather and short daylight.
Starting in Mid April is much better.
By the Smokies most of the crowd will have thinned out. Avoid weekends and certain popular dates like March 1st, 15th, 17th, and April 1st. By starting mid-week you'll have less of a crowd to deal with.
I see Feb. 24 and 25 are on a weekend in 2018. I wouldn't start on that weekend or the three days between that weekend and March 1. A fair number of folks will get the same idea as you and leave a couple days before March 1. Starting a full week before March 1, on Thursday the 22nd, should cut down a lot on how many people you see those first few days.
Seeing the post about the Smokies,
How about a flip-flop of sorts. Knock out the Smokies as early as you dare. Pick up your dog at the north end of the park.
Come back at the end and finish up Fontana south.
Wayne
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Steppenwolf60
12-01-2016, 07:50
I've been watching a number of 2016 thru hikers on You Tube and Jacob Downing started his hike on 2/27/16. You can search his name on You Tube and watch his videos from his early start to see how the weather affected his hike in Georgia.
By the Smokies most of the crowd will have thinned out. Avoid weekends and certain popular dates like March 1st, 15th, 17th, and April 1st. By starting mid-week you'll have less of a crowd to deal with.
I don't think that's the case. Fontana is only 160 miles from Springer. I've been there in the nobo rush in mid/late April. Smokies also get plenty of non thru-hiker traffic, eg. college kids on spring break.
I imagine starts-per-day as a roughly Gaussian distribution centered on March 15. Jan 15 would be 2 sigma early and May 15 would two sigma late. >95 % of all NOBO starters between 1/15 and 5/15. Just my best guess. In recent years, fifty starts per day at the peak, is the figure I recall reading. It's crazy. Yes, April 1 is a popular start date.
The good news is that "stealth" sites aren't difficult to find in that general area. You can camp away from the crowds if you like.
My wife and I are going to beat the March/April NOBO crowd by starting in HF mid March, hike 6 or 7 weeks north, then jump down to Springer about May 1. We will have the AT all to ourselves the first 6-7 weeks, and hit Springer after the Spring rush is over. Can't wait.
I don't think that's the case. Fontana is only 160 miles from Springer. I've been there in the nobo rush in mid/late April. Smokies also get plenty of non thru-hiker traffic, eg. college kids on spring break.
I imagine starts-per-day as a roughly Gaussian distribution centered on March 15. Jan 15 would be 2 sigma early and May 15 would two sigma late. >95 % of all NOBO starters between 1/15 and 5/15. Just my best guess. In recent years, fifty starts per day at the peak, is the figure I recall reading. It's crazy. Yes, April 1 is a popular start date.
The good news is that "stealth" sites aren't difficult to find in that general area. You can camp away from the crowds if you like.
According to the figures I read, approximately 35% of those who drop out do so by Fontana. In addition, many who still remain will have hiked low mileage per day for the first few weeks. Hence, my statement about the crowd thinning out. Of course, if you start on a weekend or popular date, you'll still have higher than average numbers left even after a couple weeks.
Hmm I would actually do the opposite and start later vice earlier. I started on May 1st and finished on Sept 17 with plenty of zeros.
By starting later you avoid the inevitable down days you will experience due to inclement weather in the Smokies which just bunch you up with those starting later than you. A 1 March start is not functionally 30 days ahead of 30 March as there will be a number of down days in that month due to weather issues. By May 1 you should never have that happen.
By starting that late that big percentage who are going to drop out in the early miles are already long gone and you will never meet them. Since there are not many starting as late as you your starting 'bulge' will be small. This effect will last the entire hike for you.
The best way to avoid crowds is to not stay at shelters and instead camp at the in between (stealth) sites. This also works better in May than early in the year when many of the in between sites are covered in snow or just mud.
A later start also guarantees you will have much nicer weather also as you will eliminate a high chance of snow storms and lots of icy cold rain.
plodalong
01-10-2017, 13:12
Hi Blackdog, my wife and I are in a similar place (literally since we are in MA) as you. Needing to button down long term dates due to retirement paperwork considerations. Would be interested in what date you are leaning towards. We have pretty much narrowed down to that last week of Feb/first week of March or the following midweek. Like you we probably will need as much time as possible to complete. I guess we are at the point of resigning ourselves that no matter what the date we start on we will be in some sort of bubble and will just embrace what we can, enjoy what we can, avoid what remains.
sadlowskiadam
01-10-2017, 15:48
I would suggest to any new hiker to start anytime after April 15th. Unless you have significant hiking experience, I would advise against hiking in February and early March because of the significant cold and snow conditions you will face. A hru hike is tough enough as is, and there is no reason to add extreme weather conditions to the equation if at all possible. Don't get me wrong, plenty of new hikers start in February and March and finish in Maine; however, by starting in winter conditions you likely increase the chances of quiting the trail. I may be biased, but I started April 28 and finished on Oct 12. The question of "starting date" was a significant issue for me as well because I was a novice hiker. By avoiding the winter weather, I helped set myself up for success. Not sure if I would have completed the trail if I started in February or March. Just my thoughts.
johnnybgood
01-10-2017, 18:04
Continuing on the theme of starting third week of April as opposed to late February there are a few things I'm not sure you've considered.
Longer days will result in more miles. Daylight will increase from an average of 11 hrs. in Feb. to 13.5 hrs. by Aril 20th. A net gain of 2 1/2 hrs~equaling more miles of hiking.
Night-time temps will be typically above freezing in the Georgia Mountains in late April, February on the other hand sees a myriad of inclement weather with temps below 32 * on average.
* Start later
* Pack lighter
* Hike faster , hike farther , in better weather conditions.
Continuing on the theme of starting third week of April as opposed to late February there are a few things I'm not sure you've considered.
Longer days will result in more miles. Daylight will increase from an average of 11 hrs. in Feb. to 13.5 hrs. by Aril 20th. A net gain of 2 1/2 hrs~equaling more miles of hiking.
Night-time temps will be typically above freezing in the Georgia Mountains in late April, February on the other hand sees a myriad of inclement weather with temps below 32 * on average.
* Start later
* Pack lighter
* Hike faster , hike farther , in better weather conditions.
Everything you mentioned is very true, but to play the devil's advocate....a late April start means.
* Hike through a sauna in the mid-atlantic states
* Stricter schedule with less wiggle room to get to Katahdin before October 15
* Greater insect related issues for most of the trail
* Warmer start, but definitely going to need cold weather gear from the White's on through Maine, so heavier loads and less pack capacity at the point when the trail is hardest along with longer stretches between resupply.
Everything you mentioned is very true, but to play the devil's advocate....a late April start means.
* Hike through a sauna in the mid-atlantic states
* Stricter schedule with less wiggle room to get to Katahdin before October 15
* Greater insect related issues for most of the trail
* Warmer start, but definitely going to need cold weather gear from the White's on through Maine, so heavier loads and less pack capacity at the point when the trail is hardest along with longer stretches between resupply.
Well not really for a lot of people as those who start earlier are normally caught by those who start later due to the factors johnny mentioned. By the time I got to Harpers Ferry I was passing people who started 5 weeks earlier than me.
I started May 1 and finished Sept 17 with 12 zeros. So this talk of mid-Oct puzzles me a bit.
Sure it gets a bit hot, but a lot of that is exaggeration as one hikes in the shade at least 95% of the time. And smart hikers get up and start hiking as the light comes up in the sky - say 0600 - and then they take a long break for lunch and a nap to let the heat die down. And then they hike until they feel like camping. Doing this it is easy to put in miles in the low 20's or more until one hits Mousilake. And this pace is nothing special as young folks were running past the 50 some year old me all the time.
There is no avoiding insects while hiking though it is true that a later start might get a few more. The only place biting insects were a problem on my hike was in New Jersey to Connecticut. But then I just bought a medium sized spray can of Deep Woods OFF whenever I needed a new one. The extra weight was more than balanced by the fun when all the other hikers in camp wanted to borrow it :)
And no I did not need any warmer gear than I had in Georgia up to Shenandoah Park where I sent my sleeping bag and other warm gear home. I picked it back up somewhere north of Hanover. And the Whites are not really that hard. I did slow down to about 17 mpd there but not because I couldn't go faster (one is strong by then) but because it is the nicest part of the hike and I lollygagged along. The only long carry on the entire trail is the 100 mile wilderness and it can be broken up if one wants to - but it is only 5 days and one does not have to carry a lot of water so the loads there are no big deal and the trail is flat too.