View Full Version : Weather Predictions - AT 2017
One Half
12-06-2016, 11:43
Any weather "prognosticators" on here want to put in their WAG (wild @$$ guess) as to what the weather will be on trail next year? Maybe post your WAG by section, including month. Something like: GA in Jan & Feb will be excess snow and cold, continuing through March and April with the cold. April will see frequent rain and colder than normal. May will become less cold but still expect rain. (I won't go beyond May for GA at this point).
Maybe I can figure out a point system to make this fun and then give a away a prize at the end of the year next year!
It will be cold and hot, wet and dry, rocky and smooth, up hill, down hill and flat. It will be everything except what you would expect. But it will be the adventure of a lifetime.
One Half
12-06-2016, 12:17
It will be cold and hot, wet and dry, rocky and smooth, up hill, down hill and flat. It will be everything except what you would expect. But it will be the adventure of a lifetime.
Bwahahaha
yes.
I grew up in New England and heard all types of old timers with their predictions based on natural occurences and I have to say that some of them were pretty spot on. Things like the woolly caterpillars and their color "bands." The black bands predicting severe winter weather, the brown bands predicting mild. Acorn trees producing LOTS of nuts predicts a very snowy winter - this one has proven to be true in my experience. Combine those two, lots of nuts but few black bands, and you get severe cold but little snow. Lots of nuts and lots of black = lots of snow, and very cold between the snow storms, etc.
evyck da fleet
12-06-2016, 12:45
Hikers will start in February and March trying to get an early start on the bubble. It will snow in NC/TN and they will seek shelter in towns forming the beginning of the bubble. In Mid April hikers will start with warm weather clothes thinking the cold has past but more likely trying to keep their pack weight down and will be surprised by a cold spell.It will also rain a lot. Come June and July water sources will dry up fromVirginia to New York. Thankfully about half of the thrus will have quit by now and are unaffected. It rains some more. In August and September weather happens but those still on the trail don't care because they're in shape and enjoying NH/ME or looking towards the finish.
lyagooshka
12-06-2016, 13:54
"Weather forecast for tonight: dark. Continued dark overnight, with widely scattered light by morning." Pretty sure it'll hold true for 2017. Haven't checked the Old Farmer's Almanac yet. Not that I believe it 100%, but it's fun to read. Here's to having many "mostly void partially stars" kind of days...
hikernutcasey
12-06-2016, 15:36
Who knows? I will say that with the drought the southern states experienced this fall, if things do not improve water could be hit or miss for the first 300 to 400 miles next spring. We have been fortunate to receive a fair amount of rain over the last week or so but that's not a fix all. We need it to continue and some accumulating snowfall would really help the water table as well.
The NWS "official" forecast for this winter calls for a warmer and drier than average winter for the southeast, as far north as Tennessee. From that point north, the expectation is for normal average temps and precipitation. Keep in mind, when we're talking about warmer and drier, it's only by 1-2 degrees from the historic average, but precipitation can vary wildly (as we've recently been reminded of). None of this rules out some significant winter weather events, which are still quite likely to occur, especially at elevation, it's just an overall average.
https://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/noaa_winter_temp_1020_0.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0
https://dsx.weather.com//util/image/w/winter_precip_noaa_1020.jpg?v=ap&w=980&h=551&api=7db9fe61-7414-47b5-9871-e17d87b8b6a0
This forecast model is based on comparisons against historic weather following the same relatively weak La Nina we are seeing now. There is some disagreement from other meteorologists in regard to this. The early winter in Siberia has been cold and wet, and often that translates to a rough winter here. But, as in all weather forecasting, everything could change and we might see record cold and snow...it's highly unlikely though.
The drought in the GA/NC/TN is forecast to continue into late winter, if leaving early be ready to pack more water and camel up at available sources.
http://www.weather.gov/gsp/drought
YoungBloodOnTrail
12-27-2016, 08:57
it will rain
rocketsocks
12-27-2016, 13:46
Second week in February in the north east you can hike in a t-shirt.
Based on the last 2 weeks of 2016 in Boone and Asheville, winter has been canceled. However, it has rained. The wind has blown. The fog has been thick. Temperatures above freezing at 3,000+ feet.
All of that could go down the tubes tomorrow.
Be dry. Be warm. Be safe. Have fun.
Wayne
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too hot for me to want to hike in july
Based on the last 2 weeks of 2016 in Boone and Asheville, winter has been canceled. However, it has rained. The wind has blown. The fog has been thick. Temperatures above freezing at 3,000+ feet.
All of that could go down the tubes tomorrow.
Be dry. Be warm. Be safe. Have fun.
Wayne
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Correction. Already going down the tubes. 10:07 pm. Boone, NC. The wind is blowing like stink here at 3,100'. I can't imagine what it's doing up high. Temperatures going down the drain too.
Maybe winter is finally coming.
Wayne
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AfterParty
12-27-2016, 23:19
Rain sun and wind
One Half
12-28-2016, 00:43
Second week in February in the north east you can hike in a t-shirt.
this is always true. especially if you are from there.
portablesounds
12-28-2016, 00:48
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ Whatever this says :). Although looking at this it appears we may have a warmer than usual start for NOBOs and potentially a reduction in the extreme drought conditions (like seriously thumb over the current drought conditions. Georgia is just as bad as California!).
rocketsocks
12-28-2016, 01:19
this is always true. especially if you are from there.Yes, it does seem so over the past several years.