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meat803
01-07-2017, 10:31
Any input as to how crowded the trail will be this year? I'm considering doing another thru but not if is is going to be the gaggle that it was last year. Has the Hollywood hysteria died down yet?

Huli
01-07-2017, 10:56
There is a graph put out by the ATC, I got the link on WB... Will link it here if I can find it again.

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Huli
01-07-2017, 10:56
Like magic!
http://www.appalachiantrail.org/home/explore-the-trail/thru-hiking/voluntary-thru-hiker-registration/2016-thru-hiker-registration-charts

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meat803
01-07-2017, 11:11
Yeah I found that but would need to know comparable numbers on this day a year ago to compare. Does anyone remember?

jeremys
01-07-2017, 12:14
2016 numbers are on the same page, scroll to the bottom.

Engine
01-07-2017, 14:00
Any input as to how crowded the trail will be this year? I'm considering doing another thru but not if is is going to be the gaggle that it was last year. Has the Hollywood hysteria died down yet?

No, and I wouldn't expect it to soon, if ever. Once the numbers climb, it's kind of self perpetuating. If you look at the chart for 2017 registrations so far, March 1st and 15th are already in the red from both the Approach Trail and Springer. There are already around 50 hikers starting their hikes on both of those days alone, and you can expect MANY more to register yet. It's going to be a banner year...or not, depending on your view.

moldy
01-07-2017, 18:10
There was no Hollywood hysteria. No stampede to hike the trail. We had the usual number of hikers last year and will have the usual numbers this year. If the US population goes up 1% then the number of hikers will also go up. There is no real science in the numbers, no accurate count has ever been done and may not be possible. ATC estimates for past numbers was high. The only real data in the past was "sign in at the start of the approach trail", "drop in's at Harpers Ferry" and"sign in at Baxter" This data is poor at best, not everybody does the approach trail, not everyone drops by the ATC and not everyone is truthful. The high estimates were part of the "trail promotion" effort by the ATC. Now the data is being used as part of the effort to reduce crowding conditions on the Southern end during March and April. Are the numbers going up, probably. What influences this increase,... who knows?

MuddyWaters
01-07-2017, 18:26
There was no Hollywood hysteria. No stampede to hike the trail. We had the usual number of hikers last year and will have the usual numbers this year. If the US population goes up 1% then the number of hikers will also go up. There is no real science in the numbers, no accurate count has ever been done and may not be possible. ATC estimates for past numbers was high. The only real data in the past was "sign in at the start of the approach trail", "drop in's at Harpers Ferry" and"sign in at Baxter" This data is poor at best, not everybody does the approach trail, not everyone drops by the ATC and not everyone is truthful. The high estimates were part of the "trail promotion" effort by the ATC. Now the data is being used as part of the effort to reduce crowding conditions on the Southern end during March and April. Are the numbers going up, probably. What influences this increase,... who knows?

Kennebec ferry thru hiker totals showed 18.5% increase in nobo reaching that point last year, and startling increases in SOBO and flipflops as well. 36.8% increase in SOBO, and 74% increase in flipfloppers. Which show the ATC efforts to promote alternatives are somewhat working to dissuade a few from the nobo herd.

It is not correct to say the "usual" numbers, as they were clearly much higher across the board.

In total, there were 28% more hikers at Kennebec identifying themselves as thru hikers.

28%.

Christoph
01-07-2017, 18:40
Not sure about the numbers game, but I started on April 19th, 2015 headed North from the falls. My "number" was 1286. In the 43 days I hiked and ultimately ended my attempt just past Daleville on the parkway. Passed a few groups but nothing crazy where I couldn't have any solitude where i spent the night or insane crowds along the way. The biggest (and best) impact I had on my hike was the amount of trash/poo/etc... For the most part, the trail was very clean, shelters were exactly what I expected (maybe a little better), and while some privy's were close to full it wasn't the horror stories I've heard about. Honestly, I wouldn't worry about numbers unless you're starting on one of the high volume days, but people will thin out as they go.

Engine
01-07-2017, 18:51
Kennebec ferry thru hiker totals showed 18.5% increase in nobo reaching that point last year, and startling increases in SOBO and flipflops as well. 36.8% increase in SOBO, and 74% increase in flipfloppers. Which show the ATC efforts to promote alternatives are somewhat working to dissuade a few from the nobo herd.

It is not correct to say the "usual" numbers, as they were clearly much higher across the board.

In total, there were 28% more hikers at Kennebec identifying themselves as thru hikers.

28%.


Exactly, the ATC has expressly noted the dramatic increase and is taking an active interest in trying to reduce the impact of the increased numbers.

swisscross
01-07-2017, 18:58
Exactly, the ATC has expressly noted the dramatic increase and is taking an active interest in trying to reduce the impact of the increased numbers.

Please tell!

Engine
01-07-2017, 19:01
Please tell!

Spend a few minutes on their website...

swisscross
01-07-2017, 20:14
Spend a few minutes on their website...

I have.
I must have missed required regristration for hopeful thru hikers.

Fact is, the ATC does not have a backbone to save your beloved trail from over use.

Engine
01-07-2017, 20:18
I have.
I must have missed required regristration for hopeful thru hikers.

Fact is, the ATC does not have a backbone to save your beloved trail from over use.
Never said anything about required registration...I said they are taking an active interest. Can you refute that? No? Thought not...

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swisscross
01-07-2017, 20:31
Never said anything about required registration...I said they are taking an active interest. Can you refute that? No? Thought not...

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active interest? As in ignoring the issue of over use?
much like the Catholic Church covering up the abuse of their youth.

Engine
01-07-2017, 20:33
active interest? As in ignoring the issue of over use?
much like the Catholic Church covering up the abuse of their youth.
You have every right to your opinion.

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colorado_rob
01-07-2017, 22:19
What's with the ridiculous animosity towards the ATC?

Anyway, the active interest I've seen recently is the promotion of alternative thru hikes of the AT, like creative flip-flops, to spread out folks and ease the crowding. Good for the ATC!

Emerson Bigills
01-07-2017, 22:40
I think the ATC is working to mute the increasing number of NOBO's that leave in Mar and Apr. The voluntary registration is a great idea, but sadly one only needs to look at the number of hikers that still sign up for the 1st and the 15th of those months, when there are adjacent days with far fewer planned starts.

As Muddy stated, clearly the ATC's promotion of Flip/Flops has been successful, but too many hikers are still doing exactly what they want. I think a compulsory registration has to be somewhere in the future, as too many in the hiker community do not want to police themselves. There are ways to drive compliance of a controlled permit system, even with the thousands of points of ingress and egress on the trail.

Engine
01-08-2017, 07:15
What's with the ridiculous animosity towards the ATC?

Anyway, the active interest I've seen recently is the promotion of alternative thru hikes of the AT, like creative flip-flops, to spread out folks and ease the crowding. Good for the ATC!

Thank you CR for stating what my lack of patience wouldn't allow me to.

Fireplug
01-08-2017, 13:34
I started April 1st in 2016. I was hiker 32 that day started at 2 pm. Not sure where they all went NEVER seen more than 15 to 20 at a shelter. Either way if your worried about too many people either start earlier or do a SOBO OR FLIP FLOP. Me. I don't care about to many people by Franklin it will be thinned way out, if not sooner.

rafe
01-08-2017, 13:53
Any input as to how crowded the trail will be this year? I'm considering doing another thru but not if is is going to be the gaggle that it was last year. Has the Hollywood hysteria died down yet?

Here's a thought. Having done it once, and having observed the crowding, etc. -- maybe consider one of many alternative thru hikes that will get you out of the crowds? Or just hike elsewhere. PCT, CDT, CT, LT, or roll your own.

Trooper920
01-08-2017, 20:54
There was no Hollywood hysteria. No stampede to hike the trail. We had the usual number of hikers last year and will have the usual numbers this year. If the US population goes up 1% then the number of hikers will also go up. There is no real science in the numbers, no accurate count has ever been done and may not be possible. ATC estimates for past numbers was high. The only real data in the past was "sign in at the start of the approach trail", "drop in's at Harpers Ferry" and"sign in at Baxter" This data is poor at best, not everybody does the approach trail, not everyone drops by the ATC and not everyone is truthful. The high estimates were part of the "trail promotion" effort by the ATC. Now the data is being used as part of the effort to reduce crowding conditions on the Southern end during March and April. Are the numbers going up, probably. What influences this increase,... who knows?
Last year Easter was in March, make sense if people started during Easter Break.

hailstreak
01-09-2017, 20:03
I attempted a thru in April 2015, but had to leave the trail in the Smokies. I didn't mind seeing a lot of people on the trail, but some of the campsites I stayed at were way overcrowded and obviously not very good for their local environments (Hawk Mountain and Lance Creek come to mind). This year, I am attempting a thru again; however, I am opting to take the Benton MacKaye Trail from Springer to the Smokies. The BMT seems to be a ready-made solution to this problem. If a fraction of hikers took this route, it would go a long way toward relieving congestion on the AT in the south during the spring bubble. I can't wait to experience it myself.

Oventoasted
01-09-2017, 20:50
Ugh, now im worried its going to be packed when i hike. :(

maybe i can just do sprints the first couple of weeks to get out ahead. then blow out my legs and hobble the rest of the way to Maine.

Engine
01-10-2017, 06:46
Ugh, now im worried its going to be packed when i hike. :(

maybe i can just do sprints the first couple of weeks to get out ahead. then blow out my legs and hobble the rest of the way to Maine.

Avoid starting on a weekend, and especially avoid March 1, 15, 17, April 1, and 15. The numbers from prior years will provide a good indicator of when you should leave to avoid the greatest numbers. That's how we eneded up choosing March 8th, midweek and between the high points of the 1st and 15th. But, based on the number the ATC is showing already registered (as of Jan. 5th) for our chosen day, there are currently 13 starting from Amicalola and 11 at Springer. It's still early, more will register and many will hike without registration.

There are currently 46 total registered for March 1st and 50 on March 15th. Also, keep in mind these numbers will quickly bleed over into groups starting on adjacent days as some hikers will be much slower and some faster.

The dates with the lowest number of registered hikers as of this morning are:

Anything in February

March 3 - 8 total

March 9 - 7 total

March 18 - 6 total

March 19 - 8 total

From March 23 on, it's not too bad as of right now.

Ktaadn
01-10-2017, 11:43
active interest? As in ignoring the issue of over use?
much like the Catholic Church covering up the abuse of their youth.
Counting hikers is being compared to the decades long systematic rape of children? You are lost.

flutch
01-11-2017, 12:48
So I just tried to register and it says that I can't leave between March 15 and March 25 from Springer...... The only option I can pick is flip flop.....

If they want real numbers they should allow for us to select the days we are leaving from and from what point.

Flutch

colorado_rob
01-11-2017, 12:58
So I just tried to register and it says that I can't leave between March 15 and March 25 from Springer...... The only option I can pick is flip flop.....

If they want real numbers they should allow for us to select the days we are leaving from and from what point.

Flutch?????? Really? Someone is somehow restricting starts dates? This is new, right?

Engine
01-11-2017, 13:14
Registration isn't mandatory or binding, so even though they place a cap on daily registration numbers, it doesn't restrict someone from leaving on that date.

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flutch
01-11-2017, 13:23
Registration isn't mandatory or binding, so even though they place a cap on daily registration numbers, it doesn't restrict someone from leaving on that date.

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I agree. Still leaving from Springer.

Flutch

trailmercury
01-11-2017, 14:06
Nobody will stop you from starting whenever you want...
They are only making a "strong recommendation"
If you are dead-set on your date, just don't register and go to Springer when you want

colorado_rob
01-11-2017, 15:04
Registration isn't mandatory or binding, so even though they place a cap on daily registration numbers, it doesn't restrict someone from leaving on that date.

Sent from my XT1585 using TapatalkAha, I see, makes sense, I sure would have been surprised if some authority was restricting things at Springer. that would have to be a Chattagoo-chee (no idea how to spell that!) NF thing, right?

So, by at least implying there is some sort of limit at Springer, the ATC is really trying to steer folks towards the flip-flop thing, which again, is fantastic. Again, good for them.

boshettee
01-11-2017, 15:16
If getting the yellow ATC tag is a must then make up any date you want.

MuddyWaters
01-11-2017, 16:19
So, by at least implying there is some sort of limit at Springer, the ATC is really trying to steer folks towards the flip-flop thing, which again, is fantastic. Again, good for them.

And if people dont voluntarily abide, it wont stay voluntary much longer.

trailmercury
01-11-2017, 16:27
And if people dont voluntarily abide, it wont stay voluntary much longer.
You really think they'll have a checkpoint at Springer Mountain?
If it comes to that, it's fair to say that some will just head north from USFS 42

trailmercury
01-11-2017, 16:30
Or it could be required to possess a permit for the entire trail length, but then who enforces that?
Volunteers? Make the overworked NPS work even harder? USFS personnel?
What penalty? Fined? Kicked off the trail for trespassing?
Very slippery slope indeed

BillyGr
01-11-2017, 16:40
Avoid starting on a weekend, and especially avoid March 1, 15, 17, April 1, and 15. The numbers from prior years will provide a good indicator of when you should leave to avoid the greatest numbers. That's how we eneded up choosing March 8th, midweek and between the high points of the 1st and 15th. But, based on the number the ATC is showing already registered (as of Jan. 5th) for our chosen day, there are currently 13 starting from Amicalola and 11 at Springer. It's still early, more will register and many will hike without registration.

There are currently 46 total registered for March 1st and 50 on March 15th. Also, keep in mind these numbers will quickly bleed over into groups starting on adjacent days as some hikers will be much slower and some faster.

The dates with the lowest number of registered hikers as of this morning are:

Anything in February

March 3 - 8 total

March 9 - 7 total

March 18 - 6 total

March 19 - 8 total

From March 23 on, it's not too bad as of right now.

Not too major, but it actually looks like the first "red line" on the AFSP section is on Feb 28th and not March 1st (though March 1st isn't far behind)? Where the ones for Springer itself are March 1st & 15th.

MuddyWaters
01-11-2017, 16:45
Theres already a serious public health hazard created that the atc and nps are so far complicit in.

Gsmnp is the first potential throttle point using existing trail management. How many will hike nobo if they had to skip it? And skip SNP. And cant enter BSP.

These days are right around corner.

trailmercury
01-11-2017, 16:49
Make both the traditional ATC and BMT "official" routes down south, register for either one...
By the end of the Smokies, the health hazard is much less anyway, correct?

trailmercury
01-11-2017, 16:52
An option for Springer NoBo AT overcrowding,
Make the traditional AT and the BMT as both "official" routes down south, and let folks register for one or the other,
By the end of GSMNP, the health hazard is much less of a concern anyway, correct?
Crowds are thinned/spread out significantly by then.

trailmercury
01-11-2017, 16:52
sorry double post, mods delete 1st one plz

MuddyWaters
01-11-2017, 16:56
An option for Springer NoBo AT overcrowding,
Make the traditional AT and the BMT as both "official" routes down south, and let folks register for one or the other,
By the end of GSMNP, the health hazard is much less of a concern anyway, correct?
Crowds are thinned/spread out significantly by then.
Actually norovirus tends to break out north of the gsmnp.Like Erwin.
Maybe its warmer condition, maybe people become less hygenic after a month.

Increasing capacity on south end...does nothing for BSP, which is approaching limit.

Getting people to spread out best addresses this. Which is why ATC has pursued present strategy. If they dont spread out, they will be forced at some point. So they should do the right thing for those that follow.