View Full Version : Benefits of an Earlier Start Date...
I have a question for the experienced thru-hikers among us.
Caboose and I are currently scheduled to step off from Springer on March 8th. Looking at current registration numbers, realizing they'll only get higher and represent maybe 50% of the actual numbers, we're starting to rethink our decision. From the bell curve that's becoming obvious on the registration charts, March 8th is much closer to the middle of the bubble than I would have thought when we chose that date.
I'm guessing more hikers are choosing to start earlier in March in order to avoid the crowd. With all of that in mind we're seriously looking at moving our start date to February 26th. I know it's only 10 days earlier, but it seems to move us out of the peak of the bubble. Looking at historical weather averages for both dates, we're only talking about 2-3 degrees difference on average. But, it would expose Caboose to almost 2 more weeks of cold weather and while she'll tolerate it, she's NOT a fan.
We have winter gear, microspikes, and I grew up in Northern Michigan, so winter weather activities are not a new experience.
Looking for pros, cons, and brutal honesty. Any reasons not I've already mentioned why this would be a particularly bad idea?
You could attempt a search for Map Man's summary of start dates and successful finishes.
My recollection is May 1, plus or minus a week, was the optimal starting time.
If you have scheduling difficulties with May 1, then February it is.
Good luck.
Wayne
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fastfoxengineering
01-29-2017, 21:00
I'm not going to say it dangerous. But do the research, carry adequate insulation, and be able to handle being cold and wet without the opportunity to get in the car at the end of the day. I've been planning an AT thru hike. I would like to start early. Changes to gear I would make. I would bring my xtherm and 0 degree bag for starters. Plus a winter down jacket. I probably wouldn't want to to hike in trail runners either. Typically the weather slows you down and the bubble can catch up to you anyways cause your moving slowly in the begining. There's a lot to think about if starting an early thru hike and you still wanna be comfortable. Most will tell you, an early thru hike means proper winter gear.
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booney_1
01-29-2017, 21:06
With the weather patterns in the South East, starting this early is partly a gamble. You are more likely to be forced off the trail for a few days, or put together a number of low mileage days. But than you might miss any bad weather and get a great start.
Note that hiking in the Appalachians in the winter is different than the North. Bad weather in the South is likely to be much wetter than you are used to. It's really hard to stay warm when it's 33 and drizzling.
I'd suggest reading some Trail Journals from other years. You might convince Caboose easier, if you promise if a winter storm comes you bail and put her up and the local motel/hostel.
Add extra funds to the list. You might be in towns more often to escape the crap weather. A multi day rain event in the North Carolina mountains is uncomfortable in July. They can be brutal in February and March.
The herd clustered around the March 8 date you quoted aren't the brightest bulbs in the room either.
Good luck to you all!
Wayne
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booney_1
01-29-2017, 21:10
saw the above post about not hiking in trail runners....If I was hiking this time of year i'd wear boots, or trail runners with overboots.
bamboo bob
01-29-2017, 21:48
My sense is that people who start early get slowed by weather. NOBO I started 4/4 and 4/24 and i passed a lot of people who started in March. SOBO I started 5/31 and after a week saw very few people at all.
Spirit Walker
01-29-2017, 22:19
I would start later rather than earlier. End of April or early May will allow you to enjoy the trip more than a February start. Both my thruhikes were April 1 starts and I had snow on both but for the most part I was walking with spring. I did a section hike a few years ago starting March 1. We had snow and ice on the trail for the 11 days we were on the trail. It wasn't that cold, but hiking up and down on icy trail was not fun. Hiking in winter, with no leaves, no flowers and no birds or squirrels was also depressing.
Turk6177
01-29-2017, 22:32
I wouldn't let a "bubble" affect my start date. There are so many non-shelter camping sites between Springer and the Smokeys that I don't know why you wouldn't be able to avoid the hiker train I have heard of.
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Slo-go'en
01-29-2017, 22:44
Starting the first week of March is a toss of the dice. Might go good, might go bad. It's been a mild winter, even up here in NH, but it has been a stormy one too. You got about 4 weeks to guess what the weather might do in March. If it's a stormy February down south, starting early March might not be a good idea.
The only advantage of a real early start is you get into northern VA and PA when the weather is still cool and damp. That can be much better then wicked hot and humid, like if you get there in late June or July. But then, you might have to deal with horrid conditions in New England if you get there too early.
Slo-go'en
01-29-2017, 22:58
I wouldn't let a "bubble" affect my start date. There are so many non-shelter camping sites between Springer and the Smokeys that I don't know why you wouldn't be able to avoid the hiker train I have heard of.
There are a finite number of those "non-shelter" camping sites and during the peak of the season, there are can be as many people looking for those spots as there are spots available. When you have 50 hikers all moving more or less at the same rate, they all end up more or less in the same place at the end of the day, even if many are camping somewhere between shelters. Consider that some 2000 hikers started in a window of 6 weeks last year, which means an average of 47 hikers started every day for 6 weeks.
You could attempt a search for Map Man's summary of start dates and successful finishes.
My recollection is May 1, plus or minus a week, was the optimal starting time.
If you have scheduling difficulties with May 1, then February it is.
Good luck.
Wayne
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This is a link to the post Venchka mentions:
https://whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php/115608-NOBO-start-dates-and-completions?highlight=
Venchka's memory of the start dates with highest completion percentages is a little off. It's March 21 to April 7 that have the highest completion percentages. Furthermore, in another article I find that male/female completing couples keeping a journal at trailjournals.com take an average of around 180 days to complete. If engine and Caboose turned out to be "average" completers then starting in late April or around May 1 would be a bad idea -- it wouldn't leave them enough time.
...You might convince Caboose easier, if you promise if a winter storm comes you bail and put her up and the local motel/hostel.
It's definitely part of the overall strategy. She's one tough lady, but at 108 pounds there's not much insulation.
My sense is that people who start early get slowed by weather. NOBO I started 4/4 and 4/24 and i passed a lot of people who started in March. SOBO I started 5/31 and after a week saw very few people at all.
I've seen that factor discussed often and we're taking it into consideration. Starting out in the cold, only to eventually be swallowed by a slow moving herd really defeats the purpose...but in the end it's kind of a gamble.
I would start later rather than earlier. End of April or early May will allow you to enjoy the trip more than a February start. Both my thruhikes were April 1 starts and I had snow on both but for the most part I was walking with spring. I did a section hike a few years ago starting March 1. We had snow and ice on the trail for the 11 days we were on the trail. It wasn't that cold, but hiking up and down on icy trail was not fun. Hiking in winter, with no leaves, no flowers and no birds or squirrels was also depressing.
As much as I love the mountains that time of year, we are constrained somewhat by the availability of our dog sitters...
There are a finite number of those "non-shelter" camping sites and during the peak of the season, there are can be as many people looking for those spots as there are spots available. When you have 50 hikers all moving more or less at the same rate, they all end up more or less in the same place at the end of the day, even if many are camping somewhere between shelters. Consider that some 2000 hikers started in a window of 6 weeks last year, which means an average of 47 hikers started every day for 6 weeks.
This is exactly our concern. There are already nearly 600 hikers registered (maybe almost that many not registered?) in the 20 day stretch centered on March 8th, and that number will only grow. Even if weather slows us down some, by the time we get caught the numbers will have decreased at least to some degree.
I've started about March 1 in the three previous years I've been on the trail. In 2012 I saw a few snow flakes coming down at one point, and one day I saw snow on the distant mountains. Other than those events, I never hiked on or in snow. The weather was wet, and really cold for a bit, but the trail was nice and exposed. In 2013 I did not hike on exposed trail for the first 22 days. There were successive snow storms that kept the trail snowy and were deep enough in the higher mountains that I was postholing a fair bit there. Going over Roan in a blizzard was an experience I'll not forget. In 2015 there was some significant snow for a short while, but it wasn't all that bad. Waiting a few days, or taking slow days was a good practice. This year I plan to start at Springer 2/26, and hole up if the weather is really bad. I'm not in a big rush, and have made the discovery that taking my zeros or neros during the bad weather intervals makes my hikes so much more pleasant and enjoyable.
I agree that there are a lot of people on the trail early in the season, and some of the camping spots away from shelters might have multiple people camped, but I don't recall being at any camping spot early in the season where there was not room for another tent. Some of the nicer spots would have perhaps 5 or 6 other tents, but many of the spots are quite spacious.
ScareBear
01-30-2017, 09:12
I think that the earlier start date would be a "last resort" option if you couldn't wait until the last week of April. Although, it also depends on what you feel your best daily MPH will be. Starting May 1, you only have 5 months for certain to get to K. October is your crap shoot there. So, if your confidence factor in bagging big mile days is low, I'd say go with the earlier start. But, be prepared to be prepared. Two ways at looking at a February start. One, you will bring all the gear you need, i.e. 0 degree bag, spikes, maybe MSR snow shoes, tall gaiters, full-on hardshell top and bottom and extra food. Or, two, you will bring your normal kit, hope for the best, and just have a bail-to-town plan in place in case the weather goes FUBAR on ya. IMHO, the first option is partner-dependent. How does the Caboose feel about the potential hardships of a February start? Also, the second option is finance-dependent. You can spend a lot of time in town in motels waiting out winter crap until you get past Hot Springs...
garlic08
01-30-2017, 09:26
It sounds like experienced hikers here agree to start later, and I'll add my voice to the chorus. I started Apr 4, my wife started Apr 15 on her thru, we both agree we'd start in early May if we did it again.
I'd stress the above advice to not underestimate spring storms in the south--I spend a lot time in winter above treeline in the Rockies and the southern Appalachians seriously got my attention.
I'll also stress the additional time and cost of an early start, waiting out harsh conditions in town.
A late start may require a strong start, and some more attention to your pace.
I started February 28th and we got lucky with the weather. Yes it was cold but we never got more than an inch or two of snow. I mostly remember it raining a lot. I started on a Thursday because I figured many people would be starting on Friday or Saturday. But honestly, there were still a lot of people. Not so much hiking during the day...lots of people hiking roughly the same pace will never see each other during the day unless one of them stops to take a break...but the shelters will be full. The first time I remember a shelter that wasn't full was the first shelter past the NOC. But once you get to the smokies they will be full again. As much as people talk about all of those who drop out early, there are still enough to fill the shelters at least until you get to Hot Springs. The first time I remember seeing an empty shelter was Erwin, and that was mainly because people slackpacked in and out of Erwin. But count on a lot of people being on the trail for the first four to six weeks of a thruhike.
This is a link to the post Venchka mentions:
https://whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php/115608-NOBO-start-dates-and-completions?highlight=
Venchka's memory of the start dates with highest completion percentages is a little off. It's March 21 to April 7 that have the highest completion percentages. Furthermore, in another article I find that male/female completing couples keeping a journal at trailjournals.com take an average of around 180 days to complete. If engine and Caboose turned out to be "average" completers then starting in late April or around May 1 would be a bad idea -- it wouldn't leave them enough time.
Thanks for correcting my faulty memory.
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booney_1
01-30-2017, 14:13
The other thing to keep in mind...With today's technology, you can easily keep an eye on the weather and plan a bail out. You should a have a couple days notice of bad weather moving in. It's unlikely you'd go two days without cell coverage. So it's not as huge a gamble as it used to be.
You could easily avoid any bad weather.
This would not work in the summer, as these mountains in the south suffer from pop up thunderstorms all the time.
Ironbelly
01-30-2017, 17:16
You don't have to wait out bad weather in town just because you started early. Take more proper winter gear and have at it. It's really not that big of a deal. You will have plenty of opportunities to modify your gear if you find you need more or less in the winter department. We are talking about what a 1 or 2 week difference here? Bring spikes, a good down jacket, maybe a warmer sleeping bag or a fleece liner, and a good shell top and bottom some extra food and fuel and have at it. With the basic winter items accounted for you can make it through darn near anything and enjoy yourself while doing so. I did 3 months dec-feb. But perhaps I am a sadist and just love the winter.
Thanks to everyone for all the good input! After discussing it at length, it appears Caboose and I will hit the approach trail on February 26th. We have microspikes and cold weather gear already, since March 8th was going to be a weather gamble anyway. If it gets too bad, we'll get her in a warm motel room for a day or so...
Man, not much time now. :banana
ScareBear
01-30-2017, 19:14
Just thinking out loud...does Caboose have a 10 or 0 degree bag and an R4 or better mat? It might be worth springing for a $15 CCF rollup or a ZSolLite to put on top of the mat for her as well...down booties? My former trail partner often weighed in at or under 100 pounds and there is literally no body fat. She wore her fleece multi balaclava constantly and had to have a liner and full sleep clothes. But, she would heat up fast too...once she was on a roll and it got steamy and she just calmly cut off the sleeves of her long-sleeve zip t as she kept hiking....leg warmers, she said....
Just thinking out loud...does Caboose have a 10 or 0 degree bag and an R4 or better mat? It might be worth springing for a $15 CCF rollup or a ZSolLite to put on top of the mat for her as well...down booties? My former trail partner often weighed in at or under 100 pounds and there is literally no body fat. She wore her fleece multi balaclava constantly and had to have a liner and full sleep clothes. But, she would heat up fast too...once she was on a roll and it got steamy and she just calmly cut off the sleeves of her long-sleeve zip t as she kept hiking....leg warmers, she said....
Yes, she has a 10* EE Revelation Quilt with a STS Thermolite Reactor extreme liner, a Women's NeoAir Xlite, and a GG Evazote pad for underneath. She's comfortably taken this down into the mid 20's with just a lightweight baselayer. She also has the EE booties and hood, which along with her down puffy should get her another 10 degrees. It's amazing the extreme difference in our sleeping comfort zone, I would overheat in 10 minutes with her system. LOL
Secondmouse
01-30-2017, 20:28
I have a question for the experienced thru-hikers among us.
Caboose and I are currently scheduled to step off from Springer on March 8th. Looking at current registration numbers, realizing they'll only get higher and represent maybe 50% of the actual numbers, we're starting to rethink our decision. From the bell curve that's becoming obvious on the registration charts, March 8th is much closer to the middle of the bubble than I would have thought when we chose that date.
I'm guessing more hikers are choosing to start earlier in March in order to avoid the crowd. With all of that in mind we're seriously looking at moving our start date to February 26th. I know it's only 10 days earlier, but it seems to move us out of the peak of the bubble. Looking at historical weather averages for both dates, we're only talking about 2-3 degrees difference on average. But, it would expose Caboose to almost 2 more weeks of cold weather and while she'll tolerate it, she's NOT a fan.
We have winter gear, microspikes, and I grew up in Northern Michigan, so winter weather activities are not a new experience.
Looking for pros, cons, and brutal honesty. Any reasons not I've already mentioned why this would be a particularly bad idea?
this has been a warm year. we already have trees and shrubs blooming in ATL.
if you start early, it can give you a bit of time to take it easy and get acclimated before the bubble catches up with you. or, you can stay ahead of them. more time only gives you more possibilities...
Secondmouse
01-30-2017, 20:29
Thanks to everyone for all the good input! After discussing it at length, it appears Caboose and I will hit the approach trail on February 26th. We have microspikes and cold weather gear already, since March 8th was going to be a weather gamble anyway. If it gets too bad, we'll get her in a warm motel room for a day or so...
Man, not much time now. :banana
there you go. with an earlier start date you have the option to bail out for a day or two if it gets to be too much. at this time of year that is about the longest you can expect cold weather to stick around...
ScareBear
01-30-2017, 20:29
Yes, she has a 10* EE Revelation Quilt with a STS Thermolite Reactor extreme liner, a Women's NeoAir Xlite, and a GG Evazote pad for underneath. She's comfortably taken this down into the mid 20's with just a lightweight baselayer. She also has the EE booties and hood, which along with her down puffy should get her another 10 degrees. It's amazing the extreme difference in our sleeping comfort zone, I would overheat in 10 minutes with her system. LOL
Yeah, I'm the same way. The only two things that really bother me are cold feet and head when I am trying to sleep...
here is another benefit. you don't have to walk by or step in or set your tent up in 2000 piles of human waste everyday.
I did springer to harpers ferry 2014 starting mid feb - some icy trail but other wise the weather was not that big of a deal - "swallowed by the bubble" that is a bunch of B.S. - maybe swallowed by solitude - after the middle of the smokies, I was alone till I caught up with dakota joe and some others in perisburg
colorado_rob
02-01-2017, 10:33
Can someone share this start date data for this year? We chose (coincidently) March 8th as our start date as well, thinking we'll be somewhat ahead of the average, but admittedly still in a fairly large group, but we hike fairly big miles, meaning we can hike "out" of some of the early (early March-early) bulk. Plus, having done the complete AT, I think I have enough experience to easily deal with any crowds (timing using camp sites vs. shelters, week days vs. weekends, etc).
We can start basically anytime we want, and have zero problem with snow/cold, but that being said, 2 extra weeks of colder weather (2-3 degrees is significant) would wear down on us more, so March 8th, give or take, seems perfect for us.
And with due respect to Mapman, and I love reading his numbers and stats, there has to be a causal relationship, at least a hypothetical one, to make much out of start time vs. completion rate. One such probably causal relationship is giving up early due to snow/cold from an early start. I would think differences in completion rate for hikers in the mid-March through mid April time frame are more about demographics then anything else. All of this has been discussed thoroughly in the past, and I don't mean to start all that discussion up again...
IIRC, engine and caboose are trail runners of sorts? I don't think there will any problem "finishing in time" with later start dates.
http://www.appalachiantrail.org/home/explore-the-trail/thru-hiking/voluntary-thru-hiker-registration/2016-thru-hiker-registration-charts
colorado_rob
02-01-2017, 11:30
http://www.appalachiantrail.org/home/explore-the-trail/thru-hiking/voluntary-thru-hiker-registration/2016-thru-hiker-registration-chartsthanks! A quick eyeball shows that a March 8th start is at roughly the 1/3rd spot (33rd percentile) for traditional a NOBO from Springer. Relatively quick hikers should be able to get well into the 20th or 25th percentile of "leading edge" fairly easily. As we all know, this will still entail plenty of folks along the way for a while, at least.
One reason for our decision to start on March 8th is that my wife WANTS to be part of a bit of "the bubble", she is very social, and looks forward to meeting lots of fellow hikers.
The Solemates
02-02-2017, 16:55
If I ever did the AT NOBO again I would never consider starting after 1 Feb or before 1 May. Miss the bubble altogether.
If I ever did the AT NOBO again I would never consider starting after 1 Feb or before 1 May. Miss the bubble altogether. We aren't able to start later in the year due to logistical concerns related to our dog sitter, so it needed to be before March 31st. With that in mind, even if we could start later, the news today related to BSP seems to have made the earlier start a double win.
In 2010 I started on Feb 25, so just about the same as your proposed start date. But I'm sure every year is different. For me it meant some nights where temps got down into the teens; I've never slept as cold on any other trail, FWIW, had to crack the ice in my frozen trail runners to get into them more than once. Snow and ice at times, lots of snow in the smokies, and in 2010 there were a lot of blowdowns as well, not like blowdowns other places --- this was as much brush-like as trees, but made the going slower.
All that said, I was glad to be well ahead of the herd. Shelters weren't full, with just one exception that I can think of. And in that case it was just a pleasure to be jammed in with some really excellent people. I was the 42nd NOBO to sign-in at Neels Gap.
Overall I found that one benefit of starting earlier was that I had the sense that the overall caliber of folks on the trail was higher, or at least those that stayed on trail more than a few days, and even those that didn't really.
I appreciated too the fact that when I got to a hostel or motel there was pretty much always space for me to stay. Really, I thought that the number of people hiking at that point was just about the right number --- good socialization, but not an overwhelming crowd.
A hiking friend was going to thru-hike in 2014, so another friend and I hiked the first month with him to give him a good send-off. He/we started on March 12th. This too involved quite a lot of snow going through the Smokies. Someday I'd like to hike through the Smokies without snow to see what that's like ...
But even starting March 12th the crowd wasn't that bad really; certainly more crowded than for me in 2010, but it seemed to thin out somewhat as we just kept our pace up.
Being just cold a lot can be wearing though. It was a great feeling as the weather warmed up later in the trip. AND I did some gear swaps at Pearisburg to lighten my pack load.
Before you pick a start date let's look at why 80% of the hikers fail and try to change the odds. Quite a few of the 80% quit early in their hike, why. My answer would be that they could not cope with the conditions. For the best start conditions start after April 10 th. You have plenty of time to finish and don't have to put up, as much, with cold, snow and wet. The bubble will be ahead of you and hiker starts will be slowing. It's a rough hike when you are cold and wet for days on end. I started my thru on April 12. At 66 years old I had a successful thru.
I started last year on February 21st, and it worked out well for me. Certainly there were a few cold nights, one in the single digits, but with the right bag and right gear you'll be okay. Definitely more nights of sleeping with your water filter to keep it from freezing if you do start early. Some of the early mornings when its cold and the trees are covered in rime are the most beautiful on the trail.
One major concern with starting early is the weather in the smokies. Last year we were lucky, it was 60 and sunny for most of the smokeys in early march, but its entirely a crapshoot. Sometimes they'll get storms that drop a good bit of snow at elevation. Just keep an eye on the weather and be smart about taking zeroes or nearos when the weather gets bad.
A lot of people I hiked with, myself included, agreed that we would start just as early or earlier if we did it again. You'll never avoid the crowds in their entirety but a mid february start date can prevent some of the log jam in the early phases. Good luck, have a great hike. I'm on here again because of nostalgia, wishing I was starting again!