VA/TN/NC Section Question - Bubble Encounters

[Crawfling]

I'm considering starting a SOBO section hike from Bryant Ridge Shelter in VA to the GSMNP northern border in two weeks, on or around March 10. If I'm going slowly, maybe averaging around 10 miles per day once nero/zero days are factored in, when could I reasonably expect to start encountering large groups of NOBO hikers?

[johnnybgood]

I hated these rate-time-distance problems in high school. When will these two trains meetup...

Better question : How can you start a sobo section hike at Bryant Ridge Shelter unless you backtrack from Jennings Creek ? That's probably 4 miles.

To your question;
Unlike the word problems in school there are too many variables, only wild guesses at this point.

[Turtle-2013]

I will add that in my experience it takes about 3 weeks for most thru hikers to make it from Springer through GSMNP .... in case that helps.

[HooKooDooKu]

Here's how I would break down the math.
Total Distance: About 2,200 mile.
Average Dates: April 1 to October 1 (6 month ~= 180 days)
Required Speed: 12.5 mpd
Distance to Bryant Shelter: 760 Miles
Dates to Reach Bryant Shelter: 60

So my estimate is that the bubble should reach Bryant Shelter about June 1.

[bigcranky]

So my estimate is that the bubble should reach Bryant Shelter about June 1.

Yes, but the southbound train won't be at Bryant Shelter as it left the station March 10 averaging 10mpd. Math makes my head hurt.

I usually see thru-hikers in Southwest Virginia in April and May.

[map man]

At 10 miles per day it would take you 29 days to get to Damascus (Damascus is 291 miles from Bryant Ridge Shelter) -- about April 7th if you start on March 10th. The leading edge of the NOBO bubble leaves Springer within a day or two either side of March 1 and takes about six weeks to get to Damascus -- let's say about April 10th. So you ought to see a noticeable increase in NOBO encounters about the time you enter Tennessee, south of Damascus, and that should continue for the rest of your hike. You will see NOBOs long before Damascus with increasing frequency but not in the kinds of numbers that you will during the last three weeks of your trip.

I enjoy these kinds of questions:).

[Crawfling]

Thanks for the responses.

Map man, I knew there had to be someone on WhiteBlaze who enjoyed doing these types of word problems. I appreciate it!