View Full Version : NOBO May 21: Too late?
Do y'all think is plausible to finish by Oct. 15th with a May 21st start date?
fastfoxengineering
03-29-2017, 17:18
Lots of people can finish in 4-5 months. Lots can't. Depends completely on you making miles
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Hikingjim
03-29-2017, 17:20
I would say that's ideal for someone that likes to put in pretty good miles. not much time for "easing into things" at 8 mpd, excessive zeros, or extended injury breaks, etc
Great time to start with lack of crowds, good weather in May, catching some fall in new england at the end, etc
colorado_rob
03-29-2017, 18:06
Why do you need to finish by Oct 15th? You really don't. This is a continually perpetuated myth. Sure, it is desirable to do so, but not required. A finish later in October should still work, though you might have to wait for your Katahdin summit day if they close the mountain for a few days. And you'll have to camp/stay outside the park perhaps. So what?
The Maine folks on here might know a statistic: How many days, on average, is Katahdin closed from Oct 15 to, say, mid November?
evyck da fleet
03-29-2017, 21:12
I started April 19th doing 12 mile days with a few 15s thrown in and finished August 29th. I took 22 zeros and did about 25 marathon days. Its possible if you're ready to go at the start. Obviously less zeros means less miles per day but a lot of my zeros were necessary to rest from overuse. I hadn't backpacked before the AT and found I didn't like hanging around camp. If there was enough sunlight to make it to the next shelter, known water source with a place to tent, I kept going.
Awesome! I thought it was more of an of limits kinda deal, I should be good then. Thanks!
Slo-go'en
03-30-2017, 01:02
The Maine folks on here might know a statistic: How many days, on average, is Katahdin closed from Oct 15 to, say, mid November?
A lot, and it can start earlier then Oct 15th.
Do the math, you have to average 19 miles a day, every day, from the get go. So realistically, you have to pull a lot of 20+ days to get that kind of overall average. So, it all depends on how fit you are and if you can maintain that pace. A reasonable amount of prior experience helps significantly.
colorado_rob
03-30-2017, 01:17
A lot, and it can start earlier then Oct 15th.
Do the math, you have to average 19 miles a day, every day, from the get go. So realistically, you have to pull a lot of 20+ days to get that kind of overall average. So, it all depends on how fit you are and if you can maintain that pace. A reasonable amount of prior experience helps significantly. "A lot" is pretty vague, hoping for some historical stats.... but I don't quite get the math... May 21 to October 15 (using that arbitrary "hard" end date) is 6 days short of 5 months, which would be approximately 144 days, times 19 MPD is about 2700 miles (!), all math approximate done in my head. Dividing the actual AT mileage of 2190 by 144 is more like 15 miles a day, right? is MY math wrong here?
Even keeping a 15 MPD average over a long hike is significant, but manageable. Minimize those silly zero days. I did three total zeros on an entire AT hike, and two of those were to meet my wife at a town.
bigcranky
03-30-2017, 07:00
Yeah, five months for a 23 year old is doable. Average of just over 15mpd. You can start with shorter days if you want, and do longer ones in VA and the mid Atlantic.
Also, if you end up slowing down and thinking you won't make it in time (and you don't want to push), you can do a flip flop: get a ride to Katahdin and start hiking south back to where you got off.
You would need to average 15 miles a day which does not mean trying to do 15 a day right off the bat -- slowly ease into it instead. Twenty miles a day from Virginia through Vermont would allow yourself to hike less than 15 a day in the very south, and in the more rugged New Hampshire and Maine, and to take the occasional zero day.
lwhikerchris
03-30-2017, 09:29
Anything's possible.
Krippledprophet
03-30-2017, 10:29
Why do you need to finish by Oct 15th? You really don't. This is a continually perpetuated myth. Sure, it is desirable to do so, but not required. A finish later in October should still work, though you might have to wait for your Katahdin summit day if they close the mountain for a few days. And you'll have to camp/stay outside the park perhaps. So what?
The Maine folks on here might know a statistic: How many days, on average, is Katahdin closed from Oct 15 to, say, mid November?
Don't know a statistic but snow is a real possibility end of October. Birches is closed but meh camp outside Baxter hire a shuttle.
Slo-go'en
03-30-2017, 12:02
Sorry, I should have looked at the calendar to figure out how many days he had. Just shy of 5 months does make it more realistic.
frontovik193
04-03-2017, 22:41
Due to some problems with work and other logistics I will not be leaving until early-mid may. I am trying to make the same timeline but will see where I'm at when I make it to harpers. If it's too late in the season I am going to make it up to Katahdin and sobo, that way I am not on any time crunch.
I'm open to either option, a buddy of mine did that last year due to an injury
Unless you enjoy hiking in the prime heat and humidity season of the mid Atlantic and a healthy dose of it in the south you might consider a flip flop. NOBO to ?(somewhere near where you live); then SOBO from Mt K. This has the advantages of a cooler hike doing the SOBO portion, no time constraints due to weather at BSP, and you're hiking back towards home down the stretch which should inspire you to finish. If you do wind up dallying a bit there's more wiggle room for a later finish. Fall in the mid Atlantic on the AT can be fantastic.
In other words don't divide the AT in half to hike. Divide it up into a shorter southern segment and longer SOBO northern segment.
I got hurt in GA a few weeks ago when I started nobo, I might have to sobo too.
Do y'all think is plausible to finish by Oct. 15th with a May 21st start date?
In 2006 at the age of 51 I started May 1 and finished Sept 17th and took 12 zeros. It is not hard to do what you propose at all. Show up to the start in shape (as in having a base mileage of a good 70 miles per week with a pack) as this will eliminate most chances for injury and you don't have to dwadle along for weeks trying to get in shape. Get up early and walk all day. No need to hurry at all just walk. Doing that alone will result in an average over 20mpd. Avoid too many zeros. You will finish in Sept.
JamesHenryTrotter
04-16-2017, 20:50
Met a bunch of NOBO thru hikers who left April 1st, cranking out 30 mile days, looking to be done in June. You should be fine to finish by Oct.
Kathal2017
04-25-2017, 20:47
I think I am starting mid May; and expect that one could finish with the 5 months between then and October 15. You may miss all the partying and multiple zero days, but I am more interested in getting out there and moving.
Met a bunch of NOBO thru hikers who left April 1st, cranking out 30 mile days, looking to be done in June. You should be fine to finish by Oct.
Who wants to hike in rotten snow in vt, nh and Maine? June finish is hiking in snow in a lot of the mountains in New England.
Don't understand why anyone would rush the trail. You will miss so much.
luckythirteen
04-26-2017, 01:29
I'll be out there among all late start thru hikers! Can't wait.
Someone mentioned getting some New England fall in and that's always been on my mind. I've always thought that I might do a flippity flop, which is my term for double flip... start late, say in the Smokies headed Nobo, flip around at some point to Baxter and head Sobo to get through the Whites in early Sept and the rest of NE in late Sept early Oct. Then flip again back to the southern section to complete the AT to Springer and into Amicalola (might as well, right?) during late fall early winter.