View Full Version : record numbers of thru hikes this year?
Megapixel
06-28-2017, 15:44
I was just reading a trail journal and unless it's a misprint he was number 1600 or so starting at Springer and now he's 1200 or so at Harpers. I thought I had read somewhere that the attrition rate is around 50% or greater by Harpers, but according to this journal it's more like 25% this year. Just curious as to peoples thoughts on this and the impact this will have for SOBOS - available campsites/shelters/ issues in the Whites? And more importantly, with these increases do you think the AT will ever issue yearly permits like the JMT?
BuckeyeBill
06-28-2017, 15:49
There was a big push for flip flop hikes starting at Harpers Ferry. I think that the numbers include these flip-flop hikers, as they intend to do their thru hike in a different fashion.
Megapixel
06-28-2017, 16:00
There was a big push for flip flop hikes starting at Harpers Ferry. I think that the numbers include these flip-flop hikers, as they intend to do their thru hike in a different fashion.
That makes a bit more sense if that is the case... but still 4-500 flips?
Tipi Walter
06-28-2017, 16:00
And more importantly, with these increases do you think the AT will ever issue yearly permits like the JMT?
Just for laughs wouldn't it be great to get the AT to use the Smokies rules---Every campsite reserved with permission and $4 a night??
So, let's see---in 3 months on night 85 where exactly will you be camping?? You gotta reserve a spot!! And just think, at $4 a night well you could really spend some cash.
BuckeyeBill
06-28-2017, 16:19
That makes a bit more sense if that is the case... but still 4-500 flips?
Yep, they had a big ole party and send off for the flippers. I have stated in the past my feelings about overcrowding and permits on the trail. I will not restate them as I stepped on a few toes that caused things to get out of hand.
Slo-go'en
06-28-2017, 16:54
I believe Flip floppers are counted separately. When I was on Springer about April 22nd, the count was over 2,000 if I remember right. Maybe as high as 2500?
No one does the AT anymore. It's too crowded...
Last time we checked (a few weeks ago), the count at Amicalola Falls State Park was 2,122. However, that number represents only slightly more than half of northbound thru-hikers.
The official estimate by ATC of the number of starters this year is 3,735.
Currently, the count of nobos reaching Harpers Ferry is 1236. If trends are normal, we should see something close to 1700 nobos in Harpers Ferry before the season is over.
We've seen 255 flip-floppers in Harpers Ferry that were starting somewhere other than Georgia so far this year. Many started in Harpers Ferry, but quite a few started in Shenandoah and other points mostly south, but some north. There were about 30 that started in Harpers Ferry over the 4-day period from Friday-Monday of the Flip Flop Festival, so even that small number of flip-floppers we are encouraging to spread out. This time a year we might see 15-50 nobos a day.
Yes, I'm one to earnestly believe some type of quota limits will eventually be part of the AT thru-hiking experience. PLEESE, please let's not all get into it for the umpteenth time how or if that will be instituted. It's already happened on the PCT and JMT. The PCTA and NPS has seen what has happened on the AT and wisely sought to limit usage. The ATC, which I support, still is kicking this can down the road by pushing alternative itineraries as a result of not wanting to change with the times interpreting MacKay's vision that the AT should welcome all even if it means the AT is not how it was ever envisioned.
Laurie's data does explain the numbers in that trail journal, Megapixel, with fairly normal attrition rates -- historically you do not see dramatic changes from year to year in drop-out percentages.
It's also flawed to use a comparison of the hiker number for this one hiker at Springer and that hiker's number at Harpers Ferry. If that hiker got an early start and was hiker number 1200 out of 3750 to pass Springer but then was really pokey getting to Harpers Ferry and ended up being hiker number 1200 out of 1700 to reach that milestone, your method of comparison would make it look like there was no attrition at all. Conversely, a hiker leaving late (let's say number 3000 out of 3750) but moving fast and getting to Harpers before most NOBOs (say 600th out of 1700 for the season) would make it look like the attrition was huge!
Yes, I'm one to earnestly believe some type of quota limits will eventually be part of the AT thru-hiking experience. PLEESE, please let's not all get into it for the umpteenth time how or if that will be instituted.
Thanks for the laugh!
Thanks for the laugh!
I also come to WB for the entertainment. Dogwood is my stage name. :D
To answer the initial question of the thread: yes, it is a record year for A.T. northbound thru-hike starters.
As of June 19, Baxter had counted 217 southbounders. The dropout rate was reportedly very high right at the start due to the late snowmelt and large amount of rain. Last year's total number of sobos counted by Baxter was 490; hard to know if we'll end up higher or lower.
MuddyWaters
06-28-2017, 22:50
Yes, I'm one to earnestly believe some type of quota limits will eventually be part of the AT thru-hiking experience. PLEESE, please let's not all get into it for the umpteenth time how or if that will be instituted. It's already happened on the PCT and JMT. The PCTA and NPS has seen what has happened on the AT and wisely sought to limit usage. The ATC, which I support, still is kicking this can down the road by pushing alternative itineraries as a result of not wanting to change with the times interpreting MacKay's vision that the AT should welcome all even if it means the AT is not how it was ever envisioned.
The catalyst will be when someone gets sick and actually dies because the ATC and NPS perpetuate a known health hazard every year where large numbers get sick. In fact, people could end up prosecuted.
These are great reasons to try other trails. My son & I hiked the Monadnock-Sunapee Greenway trail the week before Memorial Day. 4 days, 55 miles. We saw a dozen day hikers on Mt. Monadnock at the start of day 1, and 5 day hikers the rest of the trip. Each night we spent alone except for the coyotes and moose.
lonehiker
06-28-2017, 23:32
The catalyst will be when someone gets sick and actually dies because the ATC and NPS perpetuate a known health hazard every year where large numbers get sick. In fact, people could end up prosecuted.
This thread just became a comedy.
Was hiking in the vicinity of Mt. Rogers a couple of weeks ago and surprised to meet numerous northbounders each day. I figured the peak of the wave is probably in PA or NJ about now, so it was surprising to meet so many. I didn't think the wave was that wide.
These are great reasons to try other trails. My son & I hiked the Monadnock-Sunapee Greenway trail the week before Memorial Day. 4 days, 55 miles. We saw a dozen day hikers on Mt. Monadnock at the start of day 1, and 5 day hikers the rest of the trip. Each night we spent alone except for the coyotes and moose.
That was our experience also, except that we started at Monadnock on a rainy weekday, so even that mountain was all but abandoned.
Traveler
06-29-2017, 09:09
The catalyst will be when someone gets sick and actually dies because the ATC and NPS perpetuate a known health hazard every year where large numbers get sick. In fact, people could end up prosecuted.
I am not sure what Federal or State statutes would support a criminal charge for collective hygiene failure of footpath users. Perhaps civil action, but it will be difficult to prove negligence on the part of Federal, State, or Local jurisdictions, and I doubt any lawyers would take up the suit. Hyperbole aside, there will likely be a tipping point where the hygiene-illness connection becomes the primary dissuasion and numbers will drop over a period of time much like tourism to areas of the world that have cholera or other illness outbreaks.
gracebowen
06-29-2017, 10:37
Well honestly I hope there are no permits if and when I get to hike. I am currently anticipating a flip flop from Harpers Ferry in 3 years.
Uncle Joe
06-29-2017, 10:50
Permits so you can go somewhere and feel free.
I feel free driving across the U.S. despite needing auto insurance, registration, and a DL. Hey, human population keeps exponentially expanding a permit will be required for many things. Besides, permits for backpacking or camping don't just take into consideration you and your dreams but other folks desires and needs. :)
Tipi Walter
06-29-2017, 14:25
I feel free driving across the U.S. despite needing auto insurance, registration, and a DL. Hey, human population keeps exponentially expanding a permit will be required for many things. Besides, permits for backpacking or camping don't just take into consideration you and your dreams but other folks desires and needs. :)
Bad analogy. Better analogy is if you require all roads to be toll roads with cash payment to drive them, a quota on how many can drive that road, and requiring a permit to reach a certain destination. THEN it's similar to backpacking permits, fees and reservations. Want to drive Atlanta? First you must contact the Georgia DOT to see if you can get a permit to enter the city etc. This is what's happening more and more to the backcountry and backpacking destinations.
Well honestly I hope there are no permits if and when I get to hike. I am currently anticipating a flip flop from Harpers Ferry in 3 years.
There already are permits - GSMNP, SNP, Baxter SP, restrictions/rules for The Whites...The rules will increase at some pt. As the BSP Superintendent has stated there can't eternally be a come one come all to the AT management style. Something will eventually be hashed out or we can forget about the AT, PCT, JMT, etc as we may have remembered it. Change is inevitable.
Bad analogy. Better analogy is if you require all roads to be toll roads with cash payment to drive them, a quota on how many can drive that road, and requiring a permit to reach a certain destination. THEN it's similar to backpacking permits, fees and reservations. Want to drive Atlanta? First you must contact the Georgia DOT to see if you can get a permit to enter the city etc. This is what's happening more and more to the backcountry and backpacking destinations.
I, and certainly you, aren't currently required to have ANY permit in all the places we backpack and camp.
Heck, just went 400 + miles in three states and had no permit requirements.
Bad analogy. Better analogy is if you require all roads to be toll roads with cash payment to drive them, a quota on how many can drive that road, and requiring a permit to reach a certain destination. THEN it's similar to backpacking permits, fees and reservations. Want to drive Atlanta? First you must contact the Georgia DOT to see if you can get a permit to enter the city etc. This is what's happening more and more to the backcountry and backpacking destinations.
There're already are these things in place but worded or defined in such a way we might miss what they really are.
Tipi Walter
06-29-2017, 14:33
I, and certainly you, aren't currently required to have ANY permit in all the places we backpack and camp.
Look what recently happened to the 500,000 acre GSMNP---all campsites must be reserved beforehand, you must camp at designated spots, and it costs $4 per night. With around 100 official campsites, at let's say 2 acres each, you've just put aside 200 acres for overnight camping spots out of 500,000 acres that are authorized for overnight backpacking sites. Crazy.
What about the other 499,800 acres for camping? Sorry about that. These are the kind of rules I'm talking about. Car and motorcycle access into the Smokies? Unregulated and unlimited. Oh btw, the Park has the worst air pollution in the country.
FreeGoldRush
06-29-2017, 15:13
ch, you've just put aside 200 acres for overnight camping spots out of 500,000 acres. What about the other 499,800 acres for camping? Sorry about that. These are the kind of rules I'm talking about. Car and motorcycle access into the Smokies? Unregulated and unlimited. Oh btw, the Park has the worst air pollution in the country.
Well said. Yesterday I hiked up to Mt LeConte and two of the nearby vistas. You can hear cars from just about anywhere if you listen carefully and you can see parking lots, such as the one at Newfound Gap. Automobiles have a huge impact on the park yet hikers can't even tent on bare ground near a shelter unless the shelter is full AND they register as a thru hiker. Removing all camping regulations wouldn't even have the impact cars do. You can't see or hear campsites on the trail from anywhere except in the immediate vicinity of the campsite.
Also keep in mind that hikers want to camp in backcountry areas where there are no day hikers to see the bare ground they used. The camping regulations that don't allow you to setup a tent 20 miles from the nearest road are only "protecting" the same hikers that benefit from setting up a tent. It's really strange. I'm going to say that tenting 10+ miles from the nearest asphalt road is entirely reasonable.
With around 100 official campsites, at let's say 2 acres each, you've just put aside 200 acres for overnight camping spots out of 500,000 acres that are authorized for overnight backpacking sites. Crazy.
Even crazier still that so few backpackers will appreciate the wisdom behind your comment.
There are WAY too many folks defining the "problem" as the number of people on the AT.
Repeat that enough times, and everyone will accept it as a given.
The problem is not the number (or even distribution) of hikers, but rather overflowing privies, and over crowded shelter areas located on or very close to the treadway.
So long as the birds, bear and turtles are OK with hikers, stewards of the trail should embrace its popularity and address the infrastructure issues and rules head on -- and without apologies.
TJ aka Teej
06-29-2017, 17:08
...of not wanting to change with the times interpreting MacKay's vision that the AT should welcome all even if it means the AT is not how it was ever envisioned.
Thank God we have the trail Avery built, and not the trail MacKay proposed.
TJ aka Teej
06-29-2017, 17:19
As of June 19, Baxter had counted 217 southbounders. The dropout rate was reportedly very high right at the start due to the late snowmelt and large amount of rain.
Over a dozen dropped out during the first week after the Hunt Trail opened - before they even left Baxter.
I agree with you up to a pt TW. I don't like all the cars in places like NP's and some other areas either. I like what Zion NP did. I wish Yellowstone NP did something similar IF feasible. But, I'm not going to be 100% against all vehicle traffic in all NP's and some of these other areas because all people are not like you or myself, camp like us, or able to walk deep into back country areas or want to even if they could. And, I'm not going to endlessly bitch about these things because they don't fit my desires or itineraries. The NP's operate on the NPS balancing accessibility of visitors - ALL VISITORS - with conservation and preservation mandates. Do they always get it right? IMO, I also agree, NO! But I certainly can't claim to know all the details that the NPS and individual NP Superintendents contend. Do you? In this time when NP budgets are under attack with many politicians seeing them as something to cut, reduce, or limit from state and Federal budgets IMO the NPS is having to find ways to juggle many things.
In the individual case of GSMNP, according to NPS data, which I tend to overwhelming find accurate, most of the vehicle use is centered along Hwy 441, a well used Hwy that existed before the NP was established. Also, according to NPS data GSMNP is the most visited NP in the U.S. It would seem, at least from my perspective, this calls for some individually specific rules as it does in various NP's. I don't like a lot of rules either as you certainly have made the case for MANY times. BUT, I know rules are needed or otherwise there would be chaos. Let me remind others that rules are also in place that protect some of what we do. Should we also do away with those regs? I don't think you'd like that very much!
Thank God we have the trail Avery built, and not the trail MacKay proposed.
We have some elements of what MacKay envisioned. I think I know what you're referring and I agree. If MacKay's vision was attempted to be totally realized the problems would be greater.
TJ aka Teej
06-29-2017, 17:30
As the BSP Superintendent has stated there can't eternally be a come one come all to the AT management style.
Baxter is a wildlife preserve that has always operated as a limited access property.
Limiting ATers by treating them like all others visitors is inevitable.
Even crazier still that so few backpackers will appreciate the wisdom behind your comment.
There are WAY too many folks defining the "problem" as the number of people on the AT.
Repeat that enough times, and everyone will accept it as a given.
The problem is not the number (or even distribution -(concentration) of hikers, but rather overflowing privies, and over crowded shelter areas located on or very close to the treadway.
So long as the birds, bear and turtles are OK with hikers, stewards of the trail should embrace its popularity and address the infrastructure issues and rules head on -- and without apologies.
AT numbers sure seem an issue to the NPS, ATC, Wilderness Area Supervisors, AMC, GSMNP, BSP, etc etc etc. Sure seems to be a concern for the PCTA or Yosemite and SEKI NP authorities on the PCT and JMT. Are they all wrong and you're right? Are you saying the AT usage numbers and concentrations during various seasons aren't or shouldn't be an issue? If so I'll take authorities of these areas assessments, stats, and concerns before I'll take yours Rick.
It seems your contradicting yourself in your underlined sentence.
Baxter is a wildlife preserve that has always operated as a limited access property.
Limiting ATers by treating them like all others visitors is inevitable.
As I think it should be. Why should ATers always always expect special treatment the center of the hiking and outdoor world as if they are an entitled group somehow more import than others? It's routinely observed in the cocky AT hiker attitudes especially among thru-hikers. Is that just an east coast thing or what? Mind you keep in context that I'm a TCer and born and raised on the east coast growing up mainly in chip on our shoulders New Jersey.
Thank God we have the trail Avery built, and not the trail MacKay proposed.
We have some elements of what MacKay envisioned. I think I know what you're referring and I agree. If MacKay's vision was attempted to be totally realized the problems would be greater.
When I refer to problems I also mean much greater regulation.
Uncle Joe
06-29-2017, 21:39
I feel free driving across the U.S. despite needing auto insurance, registration, and a DL.
Just pointing out the irony.
AT numbers sure seem an issue to the NPS, ATC, Wilderness Area Supervisors, AMC, GSMNP, BSP, etc etc etc. Sure seems to be a concern for the PCTA or Yosemite and SEKI NP authorities on the PCT and JMT. Are they all wrong and you're right?
How one defines the problem will drive the solution.
Think Zion NP.
Had they defined their problem simply as "too many people" the solution would have been a given-- just reduce thier number.
Instead they defined the problem as lack of parking and traffic jams. In defining it that way they were free to consider other solutions as a big part of the solution.
And so, we have shuttle buses there now.
See the difference?
DownEaster
06-29-2017, 23:36
I feel free driving across the U.S. despite needing auto insurance, registration, and a DL.
Bad analogy.
No, it's really not a bad analogy, Tipi. You're taking state reciprocity of accepting drivers' licenses for granted, but that's not federally mandated. (If it were an Article IV, Section I Constitution issue -- i.e the "Full Faith and Credit" bit", the states would also have to accept concealed weapons licenses from all other states as well.) There's something called the "Driver License Compact (http://apps.csg.org/ncic/Compact.aspx?id=56)" which most states have joined. Mostly it's a matter of states wanting to avoid the hassle of having to certify all drivers and vehicles which enter their roads.
States could set up test stations for vehicles and drivers entering their borders, just as they set up truck weigh stations. My California-bought car has only had smog checks, not the safety checks required for a vehicle to be registered in Maine. Right now I could drive my car to Maine and operate it without having to prove it's safe (by Maine standards) to operate. Doesn't mean that situation, as a matter of law, will continue.
Gotcha Rick. See your pt in that example. :)
Baxter is a wildlife preserve that has always operated as a limited access property.
.
Certainly there is a great deal of truth to what you say, but the park is much more than just a wildlife preserve.
Jensen Bisselll (now the park director) knows that.
Years ago he moved some of his scientific forestry management operation closer to the Tote Road (over the strenuous objection of Buzz Caverly) in large measure to inform and educate the public and further best practices in forestry. That was (and remains) part of the park's mission, right?
Baxter himself knew that is park was meant for people to use "to the fullest extent" when he wrote:
"I do not intend that the Park forever shall be a region unvisited and neglected by man. I seek to provide against commercial exploitation, against hunting, trapping and killing, against lumbering, hotels, advertising, hot-dog stands, motor vehicles, horse-drawn vehicles and other vehicles, air-craft, and the trappings of unpleasant civilization.".... "I want it made available to persons of moderate means who with their boys and girls, with their packs of bedding and food, can tramp through the woods, cook a steak and make flapjacks by the lakes and brooks. Every section of this area is beautiful each in its own way. I do not want it locked up and made inaccessible;I want it used to the fullest extent but in the right unspoiled way."
The 1000+ people traveling the Tote Road on their snow machines each week during the winter know that it's not just a preserve -- as do those wildlife managers who acquiesce to this significant wildlife stresser. I do wonder what Baxter would have though about this accommodation, however. What do you think?
The generations of families that return to traditional camps each summer within the park to share ponds with nesting loons know that. I think these places are fantastic, however. Don't you?
Not saying your sentiments are not important, TJ. You know how special and unique Baxter SP is -- just suggesting that Thru Hiker use within the park should be put in context.
If there is a untenable conflict between the park and the AT right now, I would suggest that it is more with the personalities and culture -- than with the wildlife you rightfully point out is so important.