PDA

View Full Version : Increase in Winter NOBOs



sadlowskiadam
02-08-2018, 13:10
I have been following many of winter starters on trailjournals.com and other blogs online. It appears that more and more NOBO thru hikers are starting in February "to hit the trail early" and "avoid the crowds." Almost all the early starters I've followed this year have never thru hiked before and their winter hiking experience is limited (if any). Why are more inexperienced hiking starting so early? Is there any way "get the word out" that it is not necessary to start this early? I guess I'm simply frustrated seeing so many of the hikers I'm following get off the trail one week in because they were unprepared. I want to see as many thru hikers make it to Maine, but it seems many are not even giving themselves a realistic chance by starting so early (the hike is hard enough without having to deal with extreme winter conditions). Just my thoughts and would welcome others' insights.

- Counselor

DavidNH
02-08-2018, 13:22
I can only hazard a guess on this. It might be that many of those early northbounders (leaving Springer in early February) do want to avoid crowds but don't realize that just because they are in the southern Appalachians, doesn't necessarily mean it will be an easy go at high elevations, such as in the Smokies. These hikers will likely hit the GSMNP (where elevations are often over 5,000 feet and in places like Clingman's Dome well over 6,000 feet) sometime late February to early to mid March. Pretty good chance they will encounter cold rain, ice, even deep snow at the high elevations and many won't be prepared. I started my 06 hike on March 21 and still had some really cold days and nights. I was fortunate though to hike a week through the Smokies with nice weather and not getting rained on.

These hikers will, incidentally, miss out on New England's fall colors because those who finish will finish too early.


DavidNH

Tipi Walter
02-08-2018, 13:29
Most if not all will probably be spending the worst, coldest weather in towns and indoors and off the trail.

Sarcasm the elf
02-08-2018, 13:44
I think you answered your own question. I love winter backpacking but it sucks and most inexperienced folks don't understand how much it sucks until they get out there.

Berserker
02-08-2018, 13:44
Maybe some folks are using the info here (and perhaps registering at the same time) to help determine when they want to start: http://www.appalachiantrail.org/home/explore-the-trail/thru-hiking/voluntary-thru-hiker-registration/2018-thru-hiker-registration-charts. Per the current chart there are going to be a ton of people out there in late February/early March, and that's just showing the ones that registered.

Also, in the past few years the winters in the SE have been fairly mild, and a February start wasn't a big deal. This year has been different though, it's been a significantly colder winter thus far.

MuddyWaters
02-08-2018, 13:45
Hyoh

Means let other hike their own as well.

They know it's out of the ordinary, they know it's winter, they have their own personal reasons for wanting to do it so let them.

They will have more interesting time than starting in april

Knee Jerk
02-08-2018, 14:41
I can only hazard a guess, as well, but avoiding the party crowds - in full rut - who start in March/April is a powerful urge.

Because, even though the ATC denies that there is a problem, we've all seen the same reports of overrun campsites and late-night carousing in the first 500 miles of the trail. And some hikers just don't want any part of that. I've spoken to more than a few people who have wrestled with this decision and while they may be making a mistake by heading out into awful weather, their choice usually comes down to this: "Do I want to do a flip-flop, go SOBO or go NOBO like God and Grandma Gatewood intended?" If your decision is "go NOBO," then the second part of that question is "do I want some level of quiet or not?"

So the only choice for some is to start early and hope for the best. Let's face it, most of us head into the woods for the solitude. But somehow, in the past five years, hiking the AT has turned into a vast northbound mating ritual for the un (der) employed. (Hey, lycra, bro-beards, vlogging, selfie-sticks, cellphones and IPA's for everyone!)

Some hikers don't want any part of that and clearly, I agree with that sentiment.

HYOH has the unwritten understanding of "by yourself."

So maybe it should be: "HYOH-BY"

Tipi Walter
02-08-2018, 14:56
And some hikers don't want any part of that.

So don't do the AT and instead backpack the thousands of miles of trails all around the AT.

Example: Start on the BMT at Springer Mt thereby avoiding the AT. Hike north into Cohutta/Big Frog wilderness. Pull all the trails there on intricate loops. Return to the BMT and continue north.

At Sandy Gap veer off down Kirkland and do some loops on Brookshire and State Line Ridge and maybe a side trip on Henderson Top/Cow Camp to Bald River wilderness.

Stay north on the BMT and go over Sugar Mt and head up Sycamore Creek to Whiggs Meadow and do all the trails in the Snowbird backcountry and all the trails in the Citico/Slickrock wilderness.

Point is, there's hundreds and hundreds of miles of trails without the AT human glut. And mercifully without hardly any detested AT shelters.

DavidNH
02-08-2018, 15:01
I think you answered your own question. I love winter backpacking but it sucks and most inexperienced folks don't understand how much it sucks until they get out there.

If you truly loved winter backpacking.. then it wouldn't suck would it? and if it does suck, how could you love ot?

trailmercury
02-08-2018, 15:04
, hiking the AT has turned into a vast northbound mating ritual for the un (der) employed. (Lycra, bro-beards, tattoos, vlogging, cellphones and IPA's for everyone!)

Some hikers don't want any part of that



Some people don't want any part of lycra? go figure!

Feral Bill
02-08-2018, 15:06
If you truly loved winter backpacking.. then it wouldn't suck would it? and if it does suck, how could you love ot? Things can suck and wonderful at the same time. Biking up long hills, for instance. Use your imagination.

Heliotrope
02-08-2018, 15:09
Hyoh

Means let other hike their own as well.

They know it's out of the ordinary, they know it's winter, they have their own personal reasons for wanting to do it so let them.

They will have more interesting time than starting in april

Exactly. And do we really “need” everyone that starts to make it to Maine?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Deadeye
02-08-2018, 15:12
Hyoh

Means let other hike their own as well.

They know it's out of the ordinary, they know it's winter, they have their own personal reasons for wanting to do it so let them.

They will have more interesting time than starting in april

I'm in this camp. It's nice that you're concerned, but it's really not your business

Knee Jerk
02-08-2018, 15:14
So don't do the AT and instead backpack the thousands of miles of trails all around the AT.

No cache for the unwashed masses.

Sarcasm the elf
02-08-2018, 15:18
I can only hazard a guess, as well, but avoiding the party crowds - in full rut - who start in March/April is a powerful urge.

Because, even though the ATC denies that there is a problem, we've all seen the same reports of overrun campsites and late-night carousing in the first 500 miles of the trail. And some hikers just don't want any part of that. I've spoken to more than a few people who have wrestled with this decision and while they may be making a mistake by heading out into awful weather, their choice usually comes down to this: "Do I want to do a flip-flop, go SOBO or go NOBO like God and Grandma Gatewood intended?" If your decision is "go NOBO," then the second part of that question is "do I want some level of quiet or not?"

So the only choice for some is to start early and hope for the best. Let's face it, most of us head into the woods for the solitude. But somehow, in the past five years, hiking the AT has turned into a vast northbound mating ritual for the un (der) employed. (Lycra, bro-beards, tattoos, vlogging, cellphones and IPA's for everyone!)

Some hikers don't want any part of that and clearly, I agree with that sentiment.

HYOH has the unwritten understanding of "by yourself."

So maybe it should be: "HYOH-BY"

If nothing else, at least the quality of the beer is improving.

Dogwood
02-08-2018, 15:28
Why are more inexperienced hiking(hikers?) starting so early?


Because it's the AT, characterized by a greater percentage of inexperienced thru-hikers/thru hike attempters.


Perhaps, also playing a factor are publicly advertised winter hikes by others who virtually always are more experienced and wider skill set possessing LD hikers. Then, those not possessing such traits assume if they did it they too can do it. Maybe, they can. Maybe, they can't. Either way we gain personal experience by doing, trying based on first times. IMHO, there certainly are better ways to approaching gaining that experience though.

I strongly suspect what Tipi said will happen. It very well might lead to an even higher than avg AT thru hike attempter drop out rate or even higher than avg fudging of completed thru-hikes.

putts
02-08-2018, 15:33
It boils down to the difference between what the hiker imagined starting early to be like, what it really is, and their willingness to adapt and embrace what it really is.

I won't knock a newbee for trying a winter start, and won't say I told ya so if it doesn't work out. Call it a great learning experience.

Knee Jerk
02-08-2018, 15:49
The thing is the ATC has a party-crowd problem. Their trail has suddenly become TOO popular, it's being trampled and the experience is being altered by too many feet and too much technology.

And because the ATC doesn't have a solution to the problem, they deny the problem exists at all - a very corporate way of handling things - but not really a solution.

Have you ever wondered what Benton McKaye would think about having pizza delivered to a lean-to?

But instead of coming up with a solution, ATC officials dance around the issue by using all sorts of code words that don't adequately describe or solve the problem or even acknowledge that the problem exists.

Crossing your fingers and wishing upon a star is not a very good plan of action.

I certainly don't have a solution, but I suspect that in the future we may see a monetary tariff imposed. But by that time millennials may have discovered a different right of passage and wandered off in that direction.

To me, at least, it's obvious that if you solve the party-crowd problem, you'll begin to solve the inexperienced-hikers-starting-too-early problem.

Don't get me wrong: I'm not anti-young - I'm anti-overuse. Too many people flocking to anything is just a bad idea.

El JP
02-08-2018, 16:38
Exactly. And do we really “need” everyone that starts to make it to Maine?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I may come off as a bit of a jerk with this but......If the AT wasn't a big challenge, I wouldn't be doing it.

Slo-go'en
02-08-2018, 18:15
Have you ever wondered what Benton McKaye would think about having pizza delivered to a lean-to?

Actually, McKaye wanted AMC style huts all along the AT with meals and bunks. Or was that Avery? Pretty sure it was McKaye.

It's hard to say how many of those who start in Feb and then go home after a week wouldn't have done the same thing had they started in April. Well, maybe instead of just a week, they'd last 2 or 3 :)

There was a string of fairly mild winters which helped push the start dates earlier and earlier. Now we're back to more "normal" winters. With the saggy jet stream this season and last, the artic vortex dipped way south and that directed storms right into the southern Appalachians. This well could be the new normal for a while. That will put a stop to all the early starts.

I've often said, I love hiking in the winter but I hate camping in it. Especially for more then an overnight. 24/7 for the foreseeable future is not fun.

Zed
02-08-2018, 18:46
If folks are starting this early just to avoid crowds, it's just not necessary. I started April 14 last year. I guess that is behind the modern day "bubble" but there were still several dozen staying at Stover Creek Shelter that first night. I hiked about one half mile on and had a campsite all to myself. Same at Devil's Kitchen on night 2. I got water and camped about 1 mile past by myself. Gooch was empty when I passed it morning of day 3..

The trail didn't feel overcrowded in my experience. Larger groups are easy to avoid just by staying away from the shelters.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

MuddyWaters
02-08-2018, 18:50
I may come off as a bit of a jerk with this but......If the AT wasn't a big challenge, I wouldn't be doing it.
Thats a misconception. The at isnt that much of a challenge really.
Too many services, people, shelters. Whats challenging anout it? Walking every day?
Yup. The challenge is....walking 15 mi...almost every...day.
Some people just defeat themselves. Too much too fast.

Winter may add a bit more challenge for some im sure, and thats attractive. Or at least give a story or 2.

Perhaps the increase in early starters is a sign of the way the AT has been beaten into submission so that is not so difficult to do today. The communications, internet, effusive services, etc have made this so. Increase in completion rates in last 30 yrs show this. Some may be looking for more of a challenge.

4eyedbuzzard
02-08-2018, 19:41
Actually, McKaye wanted AMC style huts all along the AT with meals and bunks. Or was that Avery? Pretty sure it was McKaye...It was MacKaye. He envisioned a trail, with communes, and farms, as a lifestyle cure for the ills of early 20th century industrialization. The idea languished under MacKaye's initial chair of the newly formed ATC, started rolling a bit more under Major Welch's chair, and then when Judge Perkins replaced him as chairman (1928), Perkins brought in Myron Avery, who was as strong a practical builder as MacKaye was a visionary. Avery bulled ahead actually physically building the parts of the AT that weren't linked/done (including ALL of ME), and then Perkins became ill and died (1930-1932) and Avery took over ATC - for the next 22 years. Avery and MacKaye were as compatible as oil and water. MacKaye wanted a completely wilderness trail or nothing. Avery wanted to build the trail. Period. MacKaye, disillusioned, left the ATC in 1937 and co-founded The Wilderness Society. The trail got built - the rest of MacKaye's vision never happened.

4eyedbuzzard
02-08-2018, 19:48
Just a note to the above - lots of shelters were built under Avery's lead, by hiking clubs, CCC, and others, as tents were quite heavy canvas things at the time.

Dogwood
02-08-2018, 19:49
....It's hard to say how many of those who start in Feb and then go home after a week wouldn't have done the same thing had they started in April. Well, maybe instead of just a week, they'd last 2 or 3 :)

There was a string of fairly mild winters which helped push the start dates earlier and earlier. Now we're back to more "normal" winters. With the saggy jet stream this season and last, the artic vortex dipped way south and that directed storms right into the southern Appalachians. This well could be the new normal for a while. That will put a stop to all the early starts.


...Winter may add a bit more challenge for some im sure, and thats attractive. Or at least give a story or 2.

Perhaps the increase in early starters is a sign of the way the AT has been beaten into submission so that is not so difficult to do today. The communications, internet, effusive services, etc have made this s Increase in completion rates in last 30 yrs show this. Some may be looking for more of a challenge.

Don't ATC thru-hiker stats demonstrate NOBOers that leave the earliest have a higher drop out rate than the somewhat later NOBO starters? I thought I recall Laurie stating something to that effect. Do I have that wrong? And, if that is right are early starters aware of those statistics? And, if they are aware of it how are they, if they are, addressing it for their individual attempts?

fastfoxengineering
02-08-2018, 19:53
I'll be hiking this year. I feel like the AT is only going to deteriorate even more in the years to come.

I feel as if the culture surrounding a thru hike has vastly changed over the past 4 seasons on the AT.

Too many services, electronics, etc.

Vlogs, I'm guilty of making some hiking videos. But vlogs need to go away. Too many selfie sticks running down the trail nowadays.

As for winter starts. People who start in March usually catch up to them. They also spend more money and take more zeros.

I'll be on trail sometime in April. Just enjoying the trek.



Sent from my Moto G (5) Plus using Tapatalk

map man
02-08-2018, 20:12
Don't ATC thru-hiker stats demonstrate NOBOers that leave the earliest have a higher drop out rate than the somewhat later NOBO starters? I thought I recall Laurie stating something to that effect. Do I have that wrong? And, if that is right are early starters aware of those statistics? And, if they are aware of it how are they, if they are, addressing it for their individual attempts?

Dogwood, the following post was my attempt to answer this question and it was partially computed with data Laurie shared:

https://whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php/115608-NOBO-start-dates-and-completions?highlight=

MuddyWaters
02-08-2018, 20:19
Don't ATC thru-hiker stats demonstrate NOBOers that leave the earliest have a higher drop out rate than the somewhat later NOBO starters? I thought I recall Laurie stating something to that effect. Do I have that wrong? And, if that is right are early starters aware of those statistics? And, if they are aware of it how are they, if they are, addressing it for their individual attempts?

Who said anyone cared only about finishing?
Few do.
They want to do, what THEY WANT to do
May be starting in winter, might be bringing a dog, or lots of heavy crap

Or..making own choices do it dont seem like they are a minion following a recipe hike.

To some, doing it their way IS more important than making it all the way.

Many never contemplate actually finishing, and are amazed when realize they might or will,. And then start to focus on that.. Others start with the experience to know they WILL finish in x days.

El JP
02-09-2018, 03:03
Thats a misconception. The at isnt that much of a challenge really.
Too many services, people, shelters. Whats challenging anout it? Walking every day?
Yup. The challenge is....walking 15 mi...almost every...day.
Some people just defeat themselves. Too much too fast.

Winter may add a bit more challenge for some im sure, and thats attractive. Or at least give a story or 2.

Perhaps the increase in early starters is a sign of the way the AT has been beaten into submission so that is not so difficult to do today. The communications, internet, effusive services, etc have made this so. Increase in completion rates in last 30 yrs show this. Some may be looking for more of a challenge.

So it's a casual stroll in the boonies, along a nice cleared path, where we enjoy comfortable evenings sipping cocktails after making our way.....somewhere from somewhere else.

Isn't there something about climbing Everest 15 times? Or the rain, rocks, mud, bugs, etc, etc? Nothing of the sort? Hot damn, this is going to be a snap. Might as well make plans to knock off the PCT and CDT the next chance i get since this AT thing is just a mere walk in the woods.

MuddyWaters
02-09-2018, 03:07
So it's a casual stroll in the boonies, along a nice cleared path, where we enjoy comfortable evenings sipping cocktails after making our way.....somewhere from somewhere else.

Isn't there something about climbing Everest 15 times? Or the rain, rocks, mud, bugs, etc, etc? Nothing of the sort? Hot damn, this is going to be a snap. Might as well make plans to knock off the PCT and CDT the next chance i get since this AT thing is just a mere walk in the woods.

I have to remind you it's been thru hiked by geriatrics, young children, a blind man, and a guy.....carying.....a.... Tuba.....

It's a path in the woods. You choose to make it as hard as you want it to be by how far and how fast you try to go per day and the weight you carry. The mental side is harder than the physical

Everest, is also only 12,000 feet base to Summit. Denali has more vertical than Everest.
If you had Everest altitude then maybe you'd have something. An average day on A.T , or many mountain trails, can be 3000-5000 vertical ft. Woohoo. Comparing to Everest is kind of stupid. It's done to make it seem more difficult than it really is because Everest is difficult ( due to weather and altitude). The AT is nothing like Everest.


Some people actually enjoy hiking and do it for....... Fun

El JP
02-09-2018, 04:13
https://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php/122392-Breaking-point

https://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/archive/index.php/t-104708.html

https://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/archive/index.php/t-104708.html

https://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/archive/index.php/t-32540.html

https://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/archive/index.php/t-101715.html


If you ran your premise around where i'm at right now, people will either treat you as a retard and walk off or punch your teeth out for blatant disrespect.

If it's so easy, why are there countless dropouts every year?

MuddyWaters
02-09-2018, 04:24
https://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php/122392-Breaking-point

https://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/archive/index.php/t-104708.html

https://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/archive/index.php/t-104708.html

https://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/archive/index.php/t-32540.html

https://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/archive/index.php/t-101715.html


If you ran your premise around where i'm at right now, people will either treat you as a retard and walk off or punch your teeth out for blatant disrespect.

If it's so easy, why are there countless dropouts every year?

Why do 50% of marriages end in divorce?
It's easier to quit, than to make it work. The average person is lazy, weak-minded, and self-centered. And quick to quit anything when it gets even moderately difficult. This is why obesity rates are so high in the US. You would think having a modicum of self-respect would rate high on somebody's priority list. So you would think also that making their marriage, their life-long commitment work would too. But you be wrong on both counts for much of the population . Why would attempting a thru-hike be any different?

Many reasons for dropping out .

Injury
Money
Poor preparation
Lack of real committment
Friends quit/got ahead
Sickness
Loneliness
Not having fun
Combined factors just become overwhelming and they aren't mentally strong enough to maintain positive attitude.

With the right prep and attitude.....it's fun. It's why some people here have hiked tens of thousands of miles.

If anyone quit in the first 500 miles (where many do), and they weren't seriously injured, then they simply were never serious about hiking the trail in the first place. Or doing it for the wrong reasons.


I think many people's initial downfall is putting a time limit on their hike in the first place, or trying to keep up with others.

rickb
02-09-2018, 07:39
I may come off as a bit of a jerk with this but......If the AT wasn't a big challenge, I wouldn't be doing it.

Of course it is a big challenge.

But one thing that is so cool about thru hiking is that it is a big challenge that is attainable by a wide range of people.

Those who who would equate that with it being easy, fail to understand the AT — or at least so many people’s experience on it.

When you meet that challenge, you take away something that sticks with you forever. Something far different than just memories of places and people like you would get from a great traditional vacation, traveling the world, or signing up for a pre-packages adventure with a predetermined outcome.

Or not. Out of the 10,000+ people who have hiked the entire AT,I am sure some feel differently. Glad I am not one of them.

FrogLevel
02-09-2018, 08:16
Wow a lot of old fuddy duddies in this thread. A lot of the comments scream "My way is the right way."

You can hike it exactly as it was done in 1950 if you wish. Even then I'm sure there were still people bitching about those damned kids using plastic forks and rubber soled shoes.

Knee Jerk
02-09-2018, 10:21
Let's try to keep the focus on the original poster's premise: Specifically, why are more hikers starting in January and February? (The assumption is that there were always people starting early but recently the numbers seem much higher.)

So the question isn't how - but why. And are they starting early to avoid the party-crowds? My answer is yes they are starting earlier to avoid the party crowds. I base my response on conversations I have had with potential and recent thru-hikers. Fact, it's almost always the first or second item broached in our conversation. (And I talk to tons of hikers. It's my job.)

In my opinion, large numbers of people trying to do anything ruins the experience for others. For example, if 2,000 college kids show up at your favorite Florida beach for spring break you have a nice festive atmosphere. But if 20,000 show up you have a disaster that overwhelms neighborhoods, EMS, police, trash and fire services and pisses off everyone except the local beer distributor.

And that's what has happened to the AT in the past five years. Too many hikers, most starting at the same time, looking for a fun time, drugs and hookups. Which means that others will start too early or late or go SOBO or flip-flop to avoid the party-hardy crowd.

The trail is becoming too popular. Why? Well, you can start by blaming social media and cellphones in general and YouTube videos more specifically. Since 2015, David "AWOL" Miller, author of the AT Guide, has been asked by owners to remove 9 different trailside hostels from his book. Apparently, they didn't want any part of the party animals.

Look, I don't have a solution to the problem and apparently neither does the ATC. But it was this exact same issue that caused the Baxter State Park officials to call a meeting with their ATC counterparts and tell them, essentially: "Get control of this crowd or go find yourself another place to end your trail."

Here is a link to a recent Backpacker Magazine story about the problem: Trail Daze (https://www.backpacker.com/stories/trail-daze)

There are many other such articles dealing with this subject.

rickb
02-09-2018, 10:51
Wow a lot of old fuddy duddies in this thread. A lot of the comments scream "My way is the right way."

You can hike it exactly as it was done in 1950 if you wish. Even then I'm sure there were still people bitching about those damned kids using plastic forks and rubber soled shoes.

You got to understand that a lot of us are just buying time until we get accepted into the group of old men complaining about people on welfare and nursing their small coffees for hours on end in the corner of our local McDonalds.

Until then, WB is a natural outlet.

BTW, my personal feeling is that many people who start early might be doing so out of the misplaced notion that by giving themselves more time, they actually increase their chances of making it to Katahdin.

Back when men were men and thru hikers were backpacking royalty, “6 months” was considered to include a cushion for the unexpected or the less able.

Now that common wisdom tells us that 6-months is the norm even for fit young people, I think some of those with less confidence in their hiking ablities/speed might be accelerating their starts to provide that cushion.

If that is the case, add me to the list of people who would suggest that may not be the best strategy for success. Probably should keep my mouth shut on that though, my knowledge is stale and if someone ****s up their chances it’s really not my problem.

Just a theory.

Shrewd
02-09-2018, 11:17
I wonder if it’s something to do with impatience? Wanting to hurry up and get out there?

I was told years ago April was the standard start time and then people started pushing earlier.

I left in mid March, which seemed at the time to be pretty common.

Now that March is super common it’s not surprising that people are pushing earlier.

I think wanting to push the envelope is a trait common to people that decide to attempt a thru hike in the first place.

Eventually it’ll bounce back and and people will start leaving later again.

In reality I never had an issue with “the crowds.” There were one or two camp sites in the beginning that were quite full; but people were respectful and polite.

The only real **** shows I saw were in towns - Erwin and Damascus - and even then the real drama was always caused by a few specific people, not some murderous group of technology addicted kids.

Go easy on the kids, most are great.
Go easy on the technology, it’s not to blame. We all watch YouTube gear reviews and trail videos.

And good lord go easy on the pizza.

I can’t imagine my reaction being anything but laughter if someone had told me it was wrong to have pizza delivered to me on trail.

That pizza was a breath of life!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Tipi Walter
02-09-2018, 11:20
If folks are starting this early just to avoid crowds, it's just not necessary. I started April 14 last year. I guess that is behind the modern day "bubble" but there were still several dozen staying at Stover Creek Shelter that first night. I hiked about one half mile on and had a campsite all to myself. Same at Devil's Kitchen on night 2. I got water and camped about 1 mile past by myself. Gooch was empty when I passed it morning of day 3..

The trail didn't feel overcrowded in my experience. Larger groups are easy to avoid just by staying away from the shelters.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

Your post is spot-on. I practice the same technique when I'm backpacking the AT---get to a shelter, load up water at the spring, hike on another half mile or mile, find a camp and spend the night. I have never spent the night in a box shelter---no need when there's thousands of campsites fore and aft.

And it's fun to sit in camp by my tent at dusk and watch the AT backpackers rushing by on their quest to be at the next shelter---almost running to get there. What's the allure??? Can't figure it out.

AllDownhillFromHere
02-09-2018, 11:41
Why is it "not necessary" to start this early? if someone feels the need to start in February, then they need to start in February. Let them HTOH.

Berserker
02-09-2018, 11:52
The thing is the ATC has a party-crowd problem. Their trail has suddenly become TOO popular, it's being trampled and the experience is being altered by too many feet and too much technology.

And because the ATC doesn't have a solution to the problem, they deny the problem exists at all - a very corporate way of handling things - but not really a solution.

Have you ever wondered what Benton McKaye would think about having pizza delivered to a lean-to?

But instead of coming up with a solution, ATC officials dance around the issue by using all sorts of code words that don't adequately describe or solve the problem or even acknowledge that the problem exists.

Crossing your fingers and wishing upon a star is not a very good plan of action.
Not trying to start an argument as I'm unbiased on the issue you discuss above (no affiliation with the ATC either), but I think you are a bit inaccurate as to what the ATC is doing to solve the problem. They acknowledge that there is an overcrowding issue as documented here: http://www.appalachiantrail.org/home/explore-the-trail/thru-hiking/voluntary-thru-hiker-registration. The solution is a voluntary registration, and asking people nicely to adjust start dates if there are too many people starting on a certain date. It's not gonna totally resolve the problem, but it's a good start.

Zed
02-09-2018, 12:16
Why is it "not necessary" to start this early? if someone feels the need to start in February, then they need to start in February. Let them HTOH.If someone wants to start in February for whatever reason, they're free to do so.

If someone is starting in February because OMG CROWDING! it's not necessary, but they're still free to do it.


Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

Wyoming
02-09-2018, 12:30
There certianly are a lot of folks starting earlier than is really necessary but I wonder if looking at it with the assumption that there is a huge change going on is correct.

One way of looking at stats is the way the OP mentioned it. Total numbers of early starters have gone way up. This is a fact.

But the total numbers of starters overall has also gone way up. A fact

But an illuminating figure would be is the "percentage" of total starters who start early any "different' than what that percentage was 10 years ago. I don't konw the answer to this, but if it turned out the percentage had not changed then the assumption of the OP would be incorrect. And that we are seeing exactly the number of earlier starters we would expect given the surge in total starters.

BTW the PCT is also seeing a large number of very early starters. The most likely imho reason for this is the 50 per day limit on starters resulting in a push towards the two margins.

AllDownhillFromHere
02-09-2018, 12:50
If someone wants to start in February for whatever reason, they're free to do so.If someone is starting in February because OMG CROWDING! it's not necessary, but they're still free to do it. Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

Since the entire thing is a personal hobby/diversion/sport, then if a person deems crowding as a show-stopper, it is. There's no accounting for taste.

You sarcastically saying "OMG CROWDING" hints to me that it's not a big deal for you. However, for others, it might be. Your opinion on "crowding" does not invalidate theirs.

Zed
02-09-2018, 13:19
Since the entire thing is a personal hobby/diversion/sport, then if a person deems crowding as a show-stopper, it is. There's no accounting for taste.

You sarcastically saying "OMG CROWDING" hints to me that it's not a big deal for you. However, for others, it might be. Your opinion on "crowding" does not invalidate theirs.You would be correct. Crowding is not a big deal to me because I can avoid it by where I camp.

"An early start to avoid crowds isn't necessary" is my opinion and sharing that opinion doesn't invalidate anyone else's opinion. Someone with an idea to start early to avoid crowds but without a commitment either way is free to read all opinions then make their decision. What that decision ultimately is matters not to me. It's their hike.

I'm sure you're familiar with the saying about opinions and arseholes. Without a whole lot of one and occasionally some of the other, the Internet, at least the message board section, would be pretty empty.

nsherry61
02-09-2018, 13:21
Since the entire thing is a personal hobby/diversion/sport, then if a person deems crowding as a show-stopper, it is. There's no accounting for taste.

You sarcastically saying "OMG CROWDING" hints to me that it's not a big deal for you. However, for others, it might be. Your opinion on "crowding" does not invalidate theirs.
Yeah, but if one wants a wonderful thru-hiking experience without the crowding, there are so many other trails that are less crowded, more scenic and some that even have more history, it seems the only reason to hike the AT is really to enjoy the culture (i.e. the crowds) in the context of the trail. . . but then, I suppose one could be tuning their crowdedness to their taste and try to get some but not all the "culture".

But then, there are probably other places that are nicer to backpack in February than the southern AT, but then, I haven't been there then so I probably shouldn't talk.

Tipi Walter
02-09-2018, 13:43
Yeah, but if one wants a wonderful thru-hiking experience without the crowding, there are so many other trails that are less crowded, more scenic and some that even have more history, it seems the only reason to hike the AT is really to enjoy the culture (i.e. the crowds) in the context of the trail. . . but then, I suppose one could be tuning their crowdedness to their taste and try to get some but not all the "culture".


You must've not read my last post---

https://whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php/128305-Increase-in-Winter-NOBOs?p=2192820&viewfull=1#post2192820

MuddyWaters
02-09-2018, 13:54
It was MacKaye. He envisioned a trail, with communes, and farms, as a lifestyle cure for the ills of early 20th century industrialization. The idea languished under MacKaye's initial chair of the newly formed ATC, started rolling a bit more under Major Welch's chair, and then when Judge Perkins replaced him as chairman (1928), Perkins brought in Myron Avery, who was as strong a practical builder as MacKaye was a visionary. Avery bulled ahead actually physically building the parts of the AT that weren't linked/done (including ALL of ME), and then Perkins became ill and died (1930-1932) and Avery took over ATC - for the next 22 years. Avery and MacKaye were as compatible as oil and water. MacKaye wanted a completely wilderness trail or nothing. Avery wanted to build the trail. Period. MacKaye, disillusioned, left the ATC in 1937 and co-founded The Wilderness Society. The trail got built - the rest of MacKaye's vision never happened.

The only thing MacKaye got right , was that a trail would be a good idea. To that end, he was also only extending the idea of the Long Trail, he was copying it. He was looking at the long trail when it it occurred to him.

After that, he was completely off base and receives too much credit for the AT . He wasnt exactly a visionary that shaped anything. His vision was unneeded, and unwanted.

rickb
02-09-2018, 14:14
The only thing MacKaye got right , was that a trail would be a good idea. To that end, he was also only extending the idea of the Long Trail, he was copying it. He was looking at the long trail when it it occurred to him.
After that, he was completely off base and receives too much credit for the AT . He wasnt exactly a visionary that shaped anything. His vision was unneeded, and unwanted.

If anyone is interested in reading about MacKay in a bit greater depth (or on the history of the AT in general) this is a GREAT place to start:

http://www.appalachiantrail.org/docs/atj/00-trailyears.pdf

TX Aggie
02-09-2018, 14:25
The rules in the smokies don’t help much where everyone MUST camp at shelters. I’ve never hiked there, but from all the stories I hear just as a casual observer is that the Smokies during the bubble are just simply a nightmare. I’m not going to debate the merits or issue with the policies except to say that IF I were to ever do a thru hike, avoiding the bubble in the Smokies would be priority #1 for the first section of the trail.

TX Aggie
02-09-2018, 14:39
Oh, I left out one important aspect:
Global warming is simply making hiking in July and August unbearable. Better to get out and deal with the cold than suffer the heat.

(BTW, that was meant to be mildly sarcastic, fair warning.)

Dogwood
02-09-2018, 14:45
Who said anyone cared only about finishing?
Few do.
They want to do, what THEY WANT to do
May be starting in winter, might be bringing a dog, or lots of heavy crap

Or..making own choices do it dont seem like they are a minion following a recipe hike.

To some, doing it their way IS more important than making it all the way.

Many never contemplate actually finishing, and are amazed when realize they might or will,. And then start to focus on that.. Others start with the experience to know they WILL finish in x days.

What?

Didn't the thread starter say in their second sentence "it appears that more and more NOBO thru hikers are starting in February "to hit the trail early"" and "avoid the crowds?"

I never said anything about anyone was only concerned about finishing. Finishing is inherent to being called and self labeling as a thru-hiker. What the heck does the word thru-hiker entail if it does not include following through...to completion - finishing???


I was asking simple questions. Was I not clear? Do those earliest starting NOBO thru-hikers(self labeled), those starting in Feb for example, have a higher drop out rate than those who start somewhat later(about mid Mar - late April)? If so, and early starters know it, what are they doing about it?

MuddyWaters
02-09-2018, 14:59
I was asking simple questions. Was I not clear? Do those earliest starting NOBO thru-hikers(self labeled), those starting in Feb for example, have a higher drop out rate than those who start somewhat later(about mid Mar - late April)? If so, and early starters know it, what are they doing about it?

What I'm saying is simply they do know. If they don't know it's freaking winter they're morons. If they use Google's they will find lot's of post on Reddit or here or other places saying bad idea.

They simply don't care.

Over the years several notable Yahoo's have come on here who really didn't know what they were doing, we're stubborn, refuse to take advice, went out and started in January or February due to some reason, ended up off trail with their tail handed to them. Often burning through large amounts of money in town before they got out of Georgia.

Some people are just plain like that. They want to do what they want to do, and they don't want to listen to anybody who tells them otherwise. Sometimes those people are capable, like the hiking viking. Many aren't.

Like the kid who insisted in going out in hiking the Ozark Highlands Trail during the middle of summer when it was overgrown. Even though a dozen people said bad idea he still insisted on doung it. Made it all over 40 miles before having to quit due to losing trail.

This type of person probably applies to quite a few people that don't make it out of Ga. 25% of all thruhikers don't complete 80 miles. How is that even possible if someone has the tiniest idea of what they are doing and has listened to any advice? A lot of those people prepped for a year to not be able to hike 80 miles as well.

You've really got to be special today not to have heard of the internet or Google, it's unfathomable that somebody is too stupid to query information for a thru hike. So....what explanations are left?

nsherry61
02-09-2018, 15:21
You must've not read my last post---

https://whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php/128305-Increase-in-Winter-NOBOs?p=2192820&viewfull=1#post2192820
Nope. Clearly I didn't. :rolleyes:

Reverse
02-09-2018, 15:36
Imagine for a minute if all the Feb starts held off to the end of March/April. Crowding would be horrid.

Reverse
02-09-2018, 15:37
They may not know that this is even possible as the trails you mentioned don't get the same press as the AT.
So don't do the AT and instead backpack the thousands of miles of trails all around the AT.

Example: Start on the BMT at Springer Mt thereby avoiding the AT. Hike north into Cohutta/Big Frog wilderness. Pull all the trails there on intricate loops. Return to the BMT and continue north.

At Sandy Gap veer off down Kirkland and do some loops on Brookshire and State Line Ridge and maybe a side trip on Henderson Top/Cow Camp to Bald River wilderness.

Stay north on the BMT and go over Sugar Mt and head up Sycamore Creek to Whiggs Meadow and do all the trails in the Snowbird backcountry and all the trails in the Citico/Slickrock wilderness.

Point is, there's hundreds and hundreds of miles of trails without the AT human glut. And mercifully without hardly any detested AT shelters.

DownEaster
02-09-2018, 15:57
I'm starting the approach trail February 28, and the AT proper March 1. I am starting early in part to avoid the party people. I understand the suckitude of winter hiking. I've got a sleeping bag, a silk inner liner, an SOL Escape Bivvy outer liner, an insulated air mattress, fleece long johns, extra-thick merino socks, fleece beanie, and even a quart Nalgene that I can use as a hot water bottle. I've got experience backpacking in New England mountains in winter, so it seems I've got a reasonable chance to manage the last 19 days of the season in the South.

I'm definitely not starting early enough to avoid the (non-party) crowds, because there were already 50 people registered for a March 1 start the week after I got my registration number. But (excepting freezing rain, where shelter space beats tenting) I won't mind sharing the trail with other hikers because I can have solitude in my tent at night.

A lot of the reason I'm getting an early start is I have a harder time persevering in the heat than the cold. I may start taking afternoon siestas around the time I get to New Jersey instead of hiking through the hottest part of the day. That's assuming I don't suffer some debilitating foot/ankle/knee injury, which I regard as my biggest noncompletion risk.

So I have thought this through. I can't speak for the hundreds of others making Winter NoBo attempts, of course.

El JP
02-09-2018, 16:42
The rules in the smokies don’t help much where everyone MUST camp at shelters. I’ve never hiked there, but from all the stories I hear just as a casual observer is that the Smokies during the bubble are just simply a nightmare. I’m not going to debate the merits or issue with the policies except to say that IF I were to ever do a thru hike, avoiding the bubble in the Smokies would be priority #1 for the first section of the trail.

This big time ^^^^^^^^

Read enough trail journals and one begins to think of it as the "Smokey Sprints"

Dogwood
02-09-2018, 17:21
MW, now I gotcha. Thx for clarifying without sounding irritated or offended.

Dogwood
02-09-2018, 18:31
...You've really got to be special today not to have heard of the internet or Google, it's unfathomable that somebody is too stupid to query information for a thru hike. So....what explanations are left?



It's not just knowing what to do but doing what you know to do. There's a world of difference.



Many also know the info is readily available but don't gain access to it for a variety of reasons. I venture one reason is that we are living in a sound bite culture with shortened attention spans while simultaneously having access to an overloaded of info and choices. It can be difficult to determine exactly what info and choices are relevant and should be prioritized or accessed. This is true for Newb thru-hike attempters. It's true for you and me. At any one time the vast majority of potential awarenesses are not being recognized because our minds have been conditioned to subliminally delete much of it. This condition has only grown overall despite having greater potential access to knowledge than ever.



It comes full circle too. Maybe a sound bite -if anything is worth doing it's worth doing fast- culture can be at least partly rooted in the overload of choices.



I further venture this can lead to desiring others to make choices for us, what to access, and prioritize. How many times have we allowed ourselves to be put in this exact position here on WB when someone wants another to do the research for them? This isn't simply a matter of laziness or stupidity!



More is not always more.



You might find this Ted talk interesting: https://www.ted.com/talks/barry_schwartz_on_the_paradox_of_choice#t-269255



If you wanted to wade in deep I'm usually all too eager when the topic is about being aware ;)

Slo-go'en
02-09-2018, 18:54
except to say that IF I were to ever do a thru hike, avoiding the bubble in the Smokies would be priority #1 for the first section of the trail.

Wait until it rains. I left the Fontana Hilton in a cold drizzle on a late April day with one other brave soul. We had already waited out one day of rain and the shelter was getting packed. Who knows how many others were over in the lodge.

Bill and I got to Molly's Ridge shelter and it was packed too. Seems everyone who had hiked up in the rain the day before didn't want to hike in the rain another day. So, Bill and I pushed on to the next shelter, where there was only two others. Apparently the only two who left Molly's Ridge that day. Except for one night, it was then just the four of us in shelters for the rest of the way through the park. With quite a crowd a couple of days behind us.

Dogwood
02-09-2018, 19:07
...from all the stories I hear just as a casual observer is that the Smokies during the bubble are just simply a nightmare. I’m not going to debate the merits or issue with the policies except to say that IF I were to ever do a thru hike, avoiding the bubble in the Smokies would be priority #1 for the first section of the trail.


It's not just the bubble AT times. Offering some greater perspective, GSMNP is stated as the most visited NP in the country. The AT through GSMNP is the most used trail. Assemble experienced GSMNP hiking opinions such as 800 milers - TN Hiker, HooKooDukoo, etc. Many if not most will tell you they restrict hiking the AT. GSMNP is SO SO MUCH MORE than the AT. Hiking/backpacking, even relegated to the east, is SO SO MUCH MORE than the AT. Tipi says it as well. The AT is NOT the center of the hiking/backpacking world!

Dogwood
02-09-2018, 19:08
...from all the stories I hear just as a casual observer is that the Smokies during the bubble are just simply a nightmare. I’m not going to debate the merits or issue with the policies except to say that IF I were to ever do a thru hike, avoiding the bubble in the Smokies would be priority #1 for the first section of the trail.


It's not just the bubble AT times. Offering some greater perspective, GSMNP is stated as the most visited NP in the country. The AT through GSMNP is the most used trail. Assemble experienced GSMNP hiking opinions such as 800 milers - TN Hiker, HooKooDukoo, etc. Many if not most will tell you they restrict hiking the AT. GSMNP is SO SO MUCH MORE than the AT. Hiking/backpacking, even relegated to the east, is SO SO MUCH MORE than the AT. Tipi says it as well. The AT is NOT the center of the hiking/backpacking world!

devoidapop
02-09-2018, 19:20
...from all the stories I hear just as a casual observer is that the Smokies during the bubble are just simply a nightmare. I’m not going to debate the merits or issue with the policies except to say that IF I were to ever do a thru hike, avoiding the bubble in the Smokies would be priority #1 for the first section of the trail.


It's not just the bubble AT times. Offering some greater perspective, GSMNP is stated as the most visited NP in the country. The AT through GSMNP is the most used trail. Assemble experienced GSMNP hiking opinions such as 800 milers - TN Hiker, HooKooDukoo, etc. Many if not most will tell you they restrict hiking the AT. GSMNP is SO SO MUCH MORE than the AT. Hiking/backpacking, even relegated to the east, is SO SO MUCH MORE than the AT. Tipi says it as well. The AT is NOT the center of the hiking/backpacking world!

At the risk of doing it wrong, would it be more enjoyable to hike the BMT from Springer and continue on the AT after the Smokies? And I know it's not a novel idea, but a way to avoid overcrowded shelters and chewed up trail.

TX Aggie
02-09-2018, 19:46
At the risk of doing it wrong, would it be more enjoyable to hike the BMT from Springer and continue on the AT after the Smokies? And I know it's not a novel idea, but a way to avoid overcrowded shelters and chewed up trail.

I apologize for my ignorance of that area, does the BMT not run thru SMNP? Different rules vs AT? (Not trying to be an ass, I honestly don’t know.)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

devoidapop
02-09-2018, 20:04
At the risk of doing it wrong, would it be more enjoyable to hike the BMT from Springer and continue on the AT after the Smokies? And I know it's not a novel idea, but a way to avoid overcrowded shelters and chewed up trail.

I apologize for my ignorance of that area, does the BMT not run thru SMNP? Different rules vs AT? (Not trying to be an ass, I honestly don’t know.)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I just meant if the crowds are the problem and they are concentrated on the AT in March and April, why not take another trail through the Smokies.

For what it's worth I met an early starter at Overmountain red barn last February and I'm pretty sure he said he started early because that's what worked with his schedule.

illabelle
02-09-2018, 20:32
I apologize for my ignorance of that area, does the BMT not run thru SMNP? Different rules vs AT? (Not trying to be an ass, I honestly don’t know.)
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The BMT goes through the Smokies, mostly at a lower elevation. So far as I know there are no shelters, only campsites. Per GSMNP rules, you would not qualify for the relaxed AT thru-hiker rules, so you would have to get a reservation for each campsite you use.

TX Aggie
02-09-2018, 21:16
I just meant if the crowds are the problem and they are concentrated on the AT in March and April, why not take another trail through the Smokies.

For what it's worth I met an early starter at Overmountain red barn last February and I'm pretty sure he said he started early because that's what worked with his schedule.
Yeah, I get that part I just didn’t know if the restrictions in SMNP applied just to the AT or on all the trails.


The BMT goes through the Smokies, mostly at a lower elevation. So far as I know there are no shelters, only campsites. Per GSMNP rules, you would not qualify for the relaxed AT thru-hiker rules, so you would have to get a reservation for each campsite you use.

Thanks for the info. That sounds like even more of a PIA than using the shelters.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

DavidNH
02-09-2018, 21:21
I wonder if starting TOO early could cause the hike to be longer due to more time needed off trail due to inclement weather such as snow and ice.

rmitchell
02-09-2018, 21:46
The BMT goes through the Smokies, mostly at a lower elevation. So far as I know there are no shelters, only campsites. Per GSMNP rules, you would not qualify for the relaxed AT thru-hiker rules, so you would have to get a reservation for each campsite you use.

One shelter, Laurel Gap. By my count 20 backcountry camp sites.

I wonder if the ATC would consider the BMT through the Smokies as a legitimate alternative to the AT through the park. And still consider it a thru?

Zed
02-09-2018, 21:54
One shelter, Laurel Gap. By my count 20 backcountry camp sites.

I wonder if the ATC would consider the BMT through the Smokies as a legitimate alternative to the AT through the park. And still consider it a thru?I doubt they would consider such a thought without buy in from the NPS and the Benton Mackay Trail Association.

If memory serves it has been discussed here, and it was stated that The BMTA was not on board with becoming an official alternate AT.

Carl7
02-10-2018, 00:10
For a good recent AT winter perspective, check out The Legend of Tear Drop on YouTube, as he hikes through PA this winter. There's nothing like sleeping in an OLD 16 degree bag when it's -10 to -20 in the snow. FYI: This may not be "family friendly" due to language. However, this is the real world on the AT.

George
02-10-2018, 00:59
my take: feb in southern AT is 90% nice days

July on the AT, other than maybe the N 400 miles is 90% sucky hot

I will gladly trade more of the former for less of the later

TimOnWhiteBlaze
02-10-2018, 02:00
Last year's Reddmage, from LA, started 'round Feb. 5, and as a first-timer newbie non-party hiker did some of his hike just fine in winter. He was very inspiring to me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9BnzcwxRdA

Nothing that I know of to do with him, but maybe all this talk about BSP limits contributes to the problem.

MuddyWaters
02-10-2018, 03:26
I wonder if starting TOO early could cause the hike to be longer due to more time needed off trail due to inclement weather such as snow and ice.

Often yes.
Most people don't budget two weeks in town before gsmnp, but it happens. And they run out of money. Often they make no faster Pace than people that start later overall.

Then there's people who have to leave the trail permanently due to things like....frostbite damage of fingers and toes. Or even hospital visits b they slipped and hurt themselves.

Can really just depend on what weather you hit.

But to me they probably have a very unique and interesting and adventurous time if they stay in the mountains and try to weather out the storms as opposed to running to town

There's people that can do it though there's even people that will thrive in the conditions when they get bad. Quite a few other people though will have their tail handed to them and slink back home. To me that's their decision. Especially since they're old enough to use Google and know what they're getting into..

The hiking vikings sobo deep winter hike was nothing short of amazing. Some people can do really incredible things. Far more people however think they can do incredible things ,and are wrong.

map man
02-10-2018, 09:57
A couple people have speculated about completion rates for people who start early and about how long early starters take to complete the trail. Here are some numbers that address those questions -- first, an estimate of completion rates for different starting date groups:

8% -- January or earlier
19% -- February
19% -- March 1-7
24% -- March 8-14
24% -- March 15-21
31% -- March 22-31
31% -- April 1-7
29% -- April 8-30
28% -- May or June

This estimate was taken from this post: https://whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php/115608-NOBO-start-dates-and-completions?highlight=

Second, completion times for those who do make it all the way to Katahdin, by start date (taken from one of the comments to this article: https://whiteblaze.net/forum/content.php/44-AT-Hiking-Rates-Section-by-Section) -- notice that the earlier successful completers start, the more zero days they take:

Zeros~~~Total Days~~~Departure Date
26.0.............170.2..........Jan. 1 -- Feb. 24
23.3.............174.2..........Feb. 25 -- March 10
21.1.............173.2..........March 11 -- March 24
18.4.............167.4..........March 25 -- April 7
16.1.............151.0..........April 8 -- May 20

Dogwood
02-10-2018, 12:33
At the risk of doing it wrong, would it be more enjoyable to hike the BMT from Springer and continue on the AT after the Smokies? And I know it's not a novel idea, but a way to avoid overcrowded shelters and chewed up trail.



This is what several non confined to, non infatuated with the AT typical NOBO hiking itinerary box have suggested. In context of a very early start, which is what this thread was originally about, this could and IMO should be considered because as said the BMT route is generally at a lower elevation making for perhaps less severe winter weather. Comparatively the BMT is much much less used and competition for CS's and the two shelters is hence much less than anything on the AT.



The BMT crosses or connects with the AT in several places so one doesn't have to take the BMT entirely, rather than the AT, all the way from Springer to the northern area of GSMNP if they don't want. They can take piece(s) of the BMT as an alternative. For example, just taking the alternative BMT through GSMNP. This has already been well mapped out and logistically analyzed. The ATC and in general the hiking community have not officially recognized this in 2000 mile certificates or AT NOBO thru-hikes though. I wish they would. All of this has been discussed several times on WB and several other sites. This already occurs to various degrees on the CDT and PCT. I sincerely hope it never changes on those hikes.



Another worthy less cookie cutter early starting NOBO alternative is starting on the Pinhoti Trail that connects to the BMT that connects to the AT. It doesn't have to take a longer time/much longer time overall to do it either. Again, all the stuff is in place to do it other than the willingness "stuff" inside a hiker to veer from the cookie cutter mentality.


This more accurately reflects how the AT was envisioned by its founders...as a part of a larger interconnected trail system. The AT was but one "super trail "part of this system.


This is some of what I was thinking about when stating earlier, "and, if they(early starters) are aware of it(higher drop out rates) how are they, if they are, addressing it for their individual attempts?"

Dogwood
02-10-2018, 12:44
Thanks to MapMan for posting those stats. They confirm much of what was stated. They are revealing. Early starters who are desiring to complete thru-hikes/their hikes, have very frugal budgets, very narrowed or set timeframes, limited or no winter LD hiking experience at a generally higher east coast elevation, etc. might(should) consider them.

saltysack
02-10-2018, 12:52
I’ll take the cold over the crowds any day.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Dogwood
02-10-2018, 13:13
I’ll take the cold over the crowds any day.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


So says the Floridian probably laying in his Pawleys hammock warm with sunshine on his face. ;)

saltysack
02-10-2018, 15:48
So says the Floridian probably laying in his Pawleys hammock warm with sunshine on his face. ;)

Haaaaaa....you must be psychic! Actually chilling in my new Dutchware chameleon with the pup...it’s a balmy 75*....as soon as my UQ gets here I’m headed out for a lil section to beat the crowds!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Dogwood
02-10-2018, 18:08
Not psychic. Just have a great GPS satellite connection. Salty, you have something stuck in your teeth. :D Shrubs need a trimming too. :D

Dogwood
02-10-2018, 18:09
You have to start a thread reviewing Dutch's Chameleon.

Cathole
02-11-2018, 00:40
Interesting discussion here...
I'll be starting NOBO on Feb 20 willing to roll the dice a bit on the weather to avoid the bubble. I know that GA solitude is easy to find even in April but I'm not so keen about competing for hostel space and town services (although some won't be open early in season). I also know that local resident tolerance for the few "bad seeds" is finite and figure the seeds won't sprout 'till I'm up the trail. The past few years have also seen many new suppliers offering quality lightweight winter weather gear (though be it at high cost) extending the "comfort" season. I'm going into this after much thought and research and am equipped, financed, and prepared as well as I know how. I do most of my backpacking in winter and the challenge of of it appeals to me. I suspect many of my fellow Early Birds share these thoughts.

Shrewd
02-11-2018, 11:24
I'm starting the approach trail February 28, and the AT proper March 1. I am starting early in part to avoid the party people. I understand the suckitude of winter hiking. I've got a sleeping bag, a silk inner liner, an SOL Escape Bivvy outer liner, an insulated air mattress, fleece long johns, extra-thick merino socks, fleece beanie, and even a quart Nalgene that I can use as a hot water bottle. I've got experience backpacking in New England mountains in winter, so it seems I've got a reasonable chance to manage the last 19 days of the season in the South.

I'm definitely not starting early enough to avoid the (non-party) crowds, because there were already 50 people registered for a March 1 start the week after I got my registration number. But (excepting freezing rain, where shelter space beats tenting) I won't mind sharing the trail with other hikers because I can have solitude in my tent at night.

A lot of the reason I'm getting an early start is I have a harder time persevering in the heat than the cold. I may start taking afternoon siestas around the time I get to New Jersey instead of hiking through the hottest part of the day. That's assuming I don't suffer some debilitating foot/ankle/knee injury, which I regard as my biggest noncompletion risk.

So I have thought this through. I can't speak for the hundreds of others making Winter NoBo attempts, of course.

You’ll be good, man.

I started on the 12th last year and never really had an issue. A few of the early shelters were full but I found it led to interesting groups of people and good chats. Plus one of them always made a fire, which I’m always happy for :)

I actually liked camping near shelters; especially in the beginning when we were all new and nervous. I’d set my hammock up a short walk away then being my cooking stuff over to the shelter and chat while we took care of water and food and such.

Most of the partying took place in town, or from day hikers coming to a shelter for a night with booze.

Even then they usually offered me beer and asked questions about my thru.

The only real obnoxious times I had were at a hostel in Damascus, and Uncle Johnny’s in Erwin, where the party died down around 5am

saltysack
02-11-2018, 18:08
You have to start a thread reviewing Dutch's Chameleon.

No...I’ve only played around in my yard with it...should have my new quilts and tarp in a few weeks and plan on getting out for few days probably pick back up at Spivey gap to 19E...also need to try out the new burn....


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Ethesis
02-11-2018, 21:37
Interesting discussion here...
I'll be starting NOBO on Feb 20 willing to roll the dice a bit on the weather to avoid the bubble. I know that GA solitude is easy to find even in April but I'm not so keen about competing for hostel space and town services (although some won't be open early in season). I also know that local resident tolerance for the few "bad seeds" is finite and figure the seeds won't sprout 'till I'm up the trail. The past few years have also seen many new suppliers offering quality lightweight winter weather gear (though be it at high cost) extending the "comfort" season. I'm going into this after much thought and research and am equipped, financed, and prepared as well as I know how. I do most of my backpacking in winter and the challenge of of it appeals to me. I suspect many of my fellow Early Birds share these thoughts.

reading the shelter logs on a section hike near the roller coaster complete with 40+ people in a campground in the bubble when the privy failed.

Convinced me that the bubble needed to be avoided if I ever through hike.

I met a number of people who started ftom Feb 15 to March 1 and they had it much better.

Neat to read about some of them on trail journals. ( Sweet Cherks and Piccolo for example).

George
02-11-2018, 21:40
if you go with the lone wolf "just walking" theory - then you need an early start for any kind of challenge

Dogwood
02-11-2018, 21:59
Umm, starting in Feb/early Feb at the AT southern terminus avoiding the bubble might be the least of your issues. That's what I believe the OP was getting at. One could avoid many aspects of the bubble and not have to start in Feb. That's been anal-yzed ad nauseam on WB. Starting in Feb entails a greater amount of very real winter LD backpacking.

LittleRock
02-12-2018, 10:51
You know, I used to think hiking the AT was a challenge. Then I had 2 kids, and now it's my vacation.

juma
02-13-2018, 17:23
I can only hazard a guess, as well, but avoiding the party crowds - in full rut - who start in March/April is a powerful urge.

Because, even though the ATC denies that there is a problem, we've all seen the same reports of overrun campsites and late-night carousing in the first 500 miles of the trail. And some hikers just don't want any part of that. I've spoken to more than a few people who have wrestled with this decision and while they may be making a mistake by heading out into awful weather, their choice usually comes down to this: "Do I want to do a flip-flop, go SOBO or go NOBO like God and Grandma Gatewood intended?" If your decision is "go NOBO," then the second part of that question is "do I want some level of quiet or not?"

So the only choice for some is to start early and hope for the best. Let's face it, most of us head into the woods for the solitude. But somehow, in the past five years, hiking the AT has turned into a vast northbound mating ritual for the un (der) employed. (Hey, lycra, bro-beards, vlogging, selfie-sticks, cellphones and IPA's for everyone!)

Some hikers don't want any part of that and clearly, I agree with that sentiment.

HYOH has the unwritten understanding of "by yourself."

So maybe it should be: "HYOH-BY"

I've always enjoyed the "rut" and I think its helped keep me young!

sadlowskiadam
03-23-2018, 19:20
I completely agree. This puts added stress on hiker budgets and morale. By starting later in the season, the weather is significantly better and the days are longer because of more sunlight (which allows higher mileage days). I've been reading lots of horror stories at trailjournals.com in the past couple of weeks with the bad winter weather the southeast has been experiencing this year.

Venchka
03-23-2018, 19:45
March has been relatively normal from what I’ve been watching. After all, The TN/NC border above 5,000’ more closely resembles New England than Knoxville or Charlotte. Unfortunately, about 99% of the population can’t grasp that reality.
Good luck to everyone out there. Be safe.
Wayne