View Full Version : The Numbers And The Odds
http://www.appalachiantrail.org/home/explore-the-trail/thru-hiking/voluntary-thru-hiker-registration/2018-thru-hiker-registration-charts
After being absolutely wowed at the amount of thruhikers registered with the ATC, i began to wonder about the odds vs the traditional numbers. Being a Vegas type this kind of thing is sorta natural. Hell, if i would have been thinking a bit ahead i would have hustled up a few bets concerning my progress up the trail.
To be honest i'm having trouble trying to word this, but... For those that are really, really familiar with the AT, what do you figure on a successful thru hike this year? Especially with the mass that is heading out. We've all seen the usual 24 percent but with the sheer size of the bubble now the numbers have got to be skewed some. One thing that i'm thinking is that it will be rather stiff competition of sorts for limited shelter and tent sites in certain areas, especially the Smokies, until at the very least Damascus.
I know this might be silly as all hell to people here but i'm pretty much wired into thinking of these things in terms of odds and percentages. I've been curious about all this for some time but for one reason or another virtually every video or journal i checked out didn't really involve the bubble.
Apologies if i'm rambling as this would be a much easier question face to face.
http://www.appalachiantrail.org/home/explore-the-trail/thru-hiking/voluntary-thru-hiker-registration/2018-thru-hiker-registration-charts
... For those that are really, really familiar with the AT, what do you figure on a successful thru hike this year? Especially with the mass that is heading out. We've all seen the usual 24 percent but with the sheer size of the bubble now the numbers have got to be skewed some. One thing that i'm thinking is that it will be rather stiff competition of sorts for limited shelter and tent sites in certain areas, especially the Smokies, until at the very least Damascus.
I know this might be silly as all hell to people here but i'm pretty much wired into thinking of these things in terms of odds and percentages. I've been curious about all this for some time but for one reason or another virtually every video or journal i checked out didn't really involve the bubble.
Apologies if i'm rambling as this would be a much easier question face to face.
If I understand your question correctly, are you asking whether the number of people attempting to thru hike changes the odds of completing one? Others may have different ideas on this, but the ATC has data going back a number of years. I don't think there is much variance from year to year so I would suspect historical numbers to stay relatively the same (large sample size of data)going forward. I would think weather would have a stronger affect but even then there is really not much change year over year.
The gear gets better, as does the data and info, there's more people to be sure...but the underlying reasons people don't complete a thru still remain. Starting with more (or less) people doesn't have much bearing on these things. IMO.
nsherry61
02-27-2018, 09:23
It seems you're having trouble wording your question . . . the question you didn't really ask in the OP?
Are you asking if the odds of successful completion change with the size of the bubble if you are in the bubble?
Are you asking if the odds of successful completion change as the number of hikers overall change?
Speculation without any hard data is always fun.
I would imagine that overall, as gear and resources along the trail improve, the odds of completion improve, so a trend over time of improved success rate.
I believe that the AT has had an overall increase in thru-hiker attempts over time, probably due to improved accessibility, greater public awareness, better gear (including food), and who knows what else. So thus, a correlation between increased numbers and increased ease of success and thus overall success.
Now, on the shorter term:
I speculate that there is greater social pressure (trail families) and greater ease of completion (more help and resource) when there are more people on the trail completing it.
I also speculate that on years that see unusually high bumps in numbers due to some event like a new movie or book, that there is a sudden jump in proportion of hikers hiking with less knowledge and preparation (fad driven increase instead of overall community growth driven increase) and thus the proportion of successful completions would go down a bit relative to the fad driven bump size.
On the other had, as you point out, resources can get limited in big bubbles. My speculation on the response to that is pretty much nill. With my experience, the more people that are using the trail the more comfortable people with less experience are on the trail, regardless of the damage and limited resources. Hell, there's more party possibilities. But, the more people on the trail, the less likely I am to want to hike it. But, if I choose to hike it, I will be more likely to finish.
So, regarding resource limitation, you may drive away experienced people from even starting the trail and thus skew the population toward even more inexperienced hikers more likely to fail. But, the failure is countered by the increased likelihood of success from the "community effect" of their being more people, more social connections.
Now, where are the numbers to prove this unfounded speculation right or wrong?
Cheers. Have fun. Rock the trail trial whichever one(s) you choose.
I believe that the AT has had an overall increase in thru-hiker attempts over time, probably due to improved accessibility, greater public awareness, better gear (including food), and who knows what else. So thus, a correlation between increased numbers and increased ease of success and thus overall success
I think the internet and availability of info is helping to drive hiker numbers. Nowadays, any possible question can be answered via this forum (and others) along with the various guidebooks. There is less "mystery" around doing a hike of this nature than there was 30+ years ago. I don't think people head to Springer or Mt. K worried about crazed hillbillies or dying of starvation or being eaten by bears or whatever anymore.
nsherry61
02-27-2018, 10:03
. . .I don't think people head to Springer or Mt. K worried about crazed hillbillies or dying of starvation or being eaten by bears or whatever anymore.
I know. It's so, so sad. . . where has the sense of adventure gone?
Okay, I disagree on the bears. People are still crazy scared of being eaten by bears, killed by spiders or snakes or disabled by ticks. Heck, the tick thing is even sorta real.
nsherry61
02-27-2018, 10:05
Hey, we could do that odds calculation thing with more people on the trail and the associated increase or decrease in likelihood of being eaten by bears or being "befriended" by hillbillies.
rocketsocks
02-27-2018, 10:14
Odds of trail being loved to death...% hunah pacent!
Sarcasm the elf
02-27-2018, 10:16
Hey, we could do that odds calculation thing with more people on the trail and the associated increase or decrease in likelihood of being eaten by bears or being "befriended" by hillbillies.
Do you think there is a correlated increase or decrease in total number of hillbillies depending on the number of hikers in the bubble? :cool:
Do you think there is a correlated increase or decrease in total number of hillbillies depending on the number of hikers in the bubble? :cool:
According to data that I have collected and charted (# of hikers as independent variable and # of hillbillies as the y, or dependent variable) I consistently obtain an R squared value of roughly .865 (+/- .002). But as we all know - "correlation is not causation!". R value is, of course, the negative square root of that number because of the inverse relationship between these two things.PM and I'll provide values for the least squares regression line. Very useful for understanding or predicting how many hillbillies you might encounter given the number of hikers you start with.
Slo-go'en
02-27-2018, 11:02
It's really easy to guess, but really hard to know.
Overly crowded campsites and overflowing hostels early on could put off some people. I think a bigger factor is the weather. Being cold and wet most of the time for the first month, combined with the bleak landscape is pretty depressing.
We've all seen the usual 24 percent but with the sheer size of the bubble now the numbers have got to be skewed some. One thing that i'm thinking is that it will be rather stiff competition of sorts for limited shelter and tent sites in certain areas, especially the Smokies....
It’s not my stomping ground so I cannot say what is going on, but I have seen a bunch of posts from people having deep concern regarding crowds in the Smokies.
Not sure why that is. I can see how crowds would be a turn off, and how some will really want to avail themselves of a shelter — even though the bear resistant chain link has long been removed — but in the end it’s a relatively short stretch for a thru hiker, right?
Just don’t see why one would be overly concerned about crowds there in particular — unless I was a resource manager or worked for the ATC.
Anyone?
As for the crowded conditions causing a higher dropout rate, I would not bet on that.
Seems like the numbers have been remarkably steady over a long period of time — and over a period where there have been some remarkable changes (like the Internet, rise of shuttles, phones and social media on the Trail itself, frequent resupply, lighter weight loads and more offtrail accomodations and focus) that hardly made a dent in the completion percentages.
So...
Please come up with your reduced number for a crowded year— and I will probably the over!
nsherry61
02-27-2018, 11:53
. . . Being cold and wet most of the time for the first month, combined with the bleak landscape is pretty depressing.
Yes, but in what way does that correlate to the number of hikers or the size of the bubble? :-?
As for hillbilly abundance and interactions, we can only assume that hikers don't effect the abundance of hillbillies as hillbilly production is likely tied to other forcing variables.
But, for any given number of hillbillies, an increase in the number of hikers should increase the number of interactions but decrease the likelihood of any one person having an encounter.
I can only speak to one thing, and that is the common hearing "x% (I typically hear 30%) will quit by the time they get to Neels Gap)". I have not found this to be even remotely true. I think with the level of planning and prep that goes into a thru hike effort, yeah there may be a shock effect for some, but I think it takes alot more than 30 miles for somebody to quit.
ldsailor
02-27-2018, 13:22
I can only speak to one thing, and that is the common hearing "x% (I typically hear 30%) will quit by the time they get to Neels Gap)"
When I started the trail at Springer I had a partner. I lost him at Woody Gap. I linked up with two more hiking partners at Woody Gap and I lost both of them at Neels Gap. I gave up on the hiking partner thing and continued by myself. 30% by Neels Gap? Yeah, I believe it and maybe more.
I got the impression the OP was asking what we thought the % completion of intended thru hikers is. If I were to hazard a guess, I'd say 40% - 50% either drop out or skip major parts of the trail (skip 100 miles or more).
gracebowen
02-27-2018, 14:38
Now I'm wondering how many start but don't tell anyone then quit.
nsherry61
02-27-2018, 15:48
Now I'm wondering how many start but don't tell anyone then quit.
Exactly 326.5 last year. ;)
Slo-go'en
02-27-2018, 17:59
I think the completion rate has at least doubled from the 80's when 10-15% finished to now when 20-25% finish. Or so we guess.
The 30% by Neel gap figure could be the 30% of those who eventually drop out. That would be a reasonable number. Once the truly unprepared and/or naïve hikers bail, the rest slowly fall by the wayside for a host of reasons. Injury, running out of money, getting bored and so on. By the half way mark, about half of those who started are still going.
Sarcasm the elf
02-27-2018, 18:04
Exactly 326.5 last year. ;)
Is the other 0.5 still lying on the trail somewhere? :eek:
I can only speak to one thing, and that is the common hearing "x% (I typically hear 30%) will quit by the time they get to Neels Gap)". I have not found this to be even remotely true. I think with the level of planning and prep that goes into a thru hike effort, yeah there may be a shock effect for some, but I think it takes alot more than 30 miles for somebody to quit.
In an attempt to avoid the idea of schadenfreude, I think it is strange watching the youtube hikers drop off so quickly this year. It is as if they feel the need to reach Mountain Crossings and say they are not part of the dropout rate only to drop out soon after. 2017 was the first time I was able to watch video of several hikers complete their hike from Springer to Katahdin each in a different way. It was inspiring to witness, but apparently this has spawned a new wave of unprepared hikers.
It is like the Bryson affect, but maybe worse. Any thoughts?
MuddyWaters
02-27-2018, 22:38
Don't know about Neel gap
But i met quite a few getting off trail in ga.
I think 25% drop by end of ga is real
rocketsocks
02-27-2018, 22:39
In an attempt to avoid the idea of schadenfreude, I think it is strange watching the youtube hikers drop off so quickly this year. It is as if they feel the need to reach Mountain Crossings and say they are not part of the dropout rate only to drop out soon after. 2017 was the first time I was able to watch video of several hikers complete their hike from Springer to Katahdin each in a different way. It was inspiring to witness, but apparently this has spawned a new wave of unprepared hikers.
It is like the Bryson affect, but maybe worse. Any thoughts?Partiers partyin’
The proportion of flip flop hikers to NOBO/SOBO hikers could impact the overall success rate as this group has at least double the success rate as those who NOBO or SOBO. If the proportion falls, the rate could go lower and vice versa if the proportion increases.
In an attempt to avoid the idea of schadenfreude, I think it is strange watching the youtube hikers drop off so quickly this year. It is as if they feel the need to reach Mountain Crossings and say they are not part of the dropout rate only to drop out soon after. 2017 was the first time I was able to watch video of several hikers complete their hike from Springer to Katahdin each in a different way. It was inspiring to witness, but apparently this has spawned a new wave of unprepared hikers.
It is like the Bryson affect, but maybe worse. Any thoughts?
I think the Georgia weather (fog and rain with no views) this year has had an impact on the hikers more than in the past.
hillbilly production is likely tied to other forcing variables.
.
ie: friendliness of cousins
Emerson Bigills
02-28-2018, 00:10
I suspect past drop out rates will persist again this year. There has been a bubble for quite a while now. Some folks love that social aspect. I think the folks who drop out in the first 50 miles probably really didn't belong out there to begin with. That may sound cruel, but the trail doesn't play favorites. Those folks can figure out what they lacked and try again next year. The most important thing is to stay healthy, but letting your mental focus wane and ability to enjoy what often becomes boring and repetitive, send some good hikers home. It's a long grind and you never know who is going to finish.
Thanks for helping make some sense out of an admittedly vague premise.
I'm almost tempted to call Mountain Crossing about a week before i go just to ask for their opinions on the drop out rate there this year. Great points above about equipment, videos, internet info etc. That's pretty much how i got things going and Whiteblaze made me make some radical changes in gear and planning.
Funny that cwinkle mentioned the Bryson Effect. Once i got the idea to do this i went out of my way to avoid the book until quite recently. I've seen the film trailer maybe twice. It would be nice to ask others up on Springer as to why they are hiking and how they are going about it but all things considered, it'll be much better to just set up camp and keep quiet.
I know this might be silly as all hell to people here but i'm pretty much wired into thinking of these things in terms of odds and percentages.
You know, I am now thinking you may be on to something.
The ATC’s numbers online for the past 8 years show an amazingly consistent rate of NOBO hikers that make it to Harper’s Ferry up — right around 50%. — up through 2015.
For 2016 and 2017 that number has dropped about 5 percentage points.
Not sure why, but seems significant.
MuddyWaters
02-28-2018, 08:56
You know, I am now thinking you may be on to something.
The ATC’s numbers online for the past 8 years show an amazingly consistent rate of NOBO hikers that make it to Harper’s Ferry up — right around 50%. — up through 2015.
For 2016 and 2017 that number has dropped about 5 percentage points.
Not sure why, but seems significant.
Ponder this:
There are people on here, and other places as well
With thousands to tens of thousands of miles under feet.
Their chances of completing any long hike, excepting some unforseen injury, approach 100%.
Why?
What's the difference between them.....and new attempters?
It's really simple. They actually enjoy it. Even alone. Nothing else they would rather do. Don't need support group to keep them on trail.
So what's the corrollary?
If you have a body that's is conditioned to hiking
Don't short yourself on time or money
Don't hike more than you can comfortably hike per day
And actually enjoy being out there
Your chances of success are extremely high
nsherry61
02-28-2018, 11:41
. . . hillbilly production is likely tied to other forcing variables. . .
ie: friendliness of cousins
Now be careful about generalizations. I live on the Boston south shore in a house that was built in 1766 by the eldest son of our nation's first Chief Justice (Cushing). One would think the opposite of a hillbilly. But, Mr Pickles Cushing (the guy that built our house) built our house the year he married his first wife who's maiden name was . . . are you ready . . . Ruth Cushing. Cousins? After 8 or 10 children, Ruth died. Guess what our town records show for the maiden name of his 2nd wife and mother to his second set of 8 or so children . . . you won't believe it . . . her maiden name of record was also Ruth Cushing!! Hmm. More cousins and maybe an older generation matron of note named Ruth that everyone named their daughters after?? I think there is more to hillbilly production just inbreeding. Heck look at the many generations of inbred European monarchy that we don't refer to as hillbillies, even if we should. :banana
http://www.appalachiantrail.org/home/explore-the-trail/thru-hiking/voluntary-thru-hiker-registration/2018-thru-hiker-registration-charts
After being absolutely wowed at the amount of thruhikers registered with the ATC, i began to wonder about the odds vs the traditional numbers. Being a Vegas type this kind of thing is sorta natural. Hell, if i would have been thinking a bit ahead i would have hustled up a few bets concerning my progress up the trail.
To be honest i'm having trouble trying to word this, but... For those that are really, really familiar with the AT, what do you figure on a successful thru hike this year? Especially with the mass that is heading out. We've all seen the usual 24 percent but with the sheer size of the bubble now the numbers have got to be skewed some. One thing that i'm thinking is that it will be rather stiff competition of sorts for limited shelter and tent sites in certain areas, especially the Smokies, until at the very least Damascus.
I know this might be silly as all hell to people here but i'm pretty much wired into thinking of these things in terms of odds and percentages. I've been curious about all this for some time but for one reason or another virtually every video or journal i checked out didn't really involve the bubble.
Apologies if i'm rambling as this would be a much easier question face to face.
I think that the % rate of those that finish the whole trail, i.e.. thru-hike, has probably stayed in the same range over the past 20 years or so. I believe using todays standards that more and more folks claim they thru-hiked even though they skipped sections or quit before the end has driven the published compleation % up. It's a millennial thing. "I went out, hiked some so now I'm a thru-hiker." I have met several.
nsherry61
02-28-2018, 18:03
. . . more folks claim they thru-hiked even though they skipped sections or quit before the end has driven the published compleation % up. It's a millennial thing. . .
I don't know. There have been debates since the very beginning about people skipping sections and what counts or doesn't. And I really mean the beginning, starting with Earl Shaffer.
Well the numbers definitely are up. I read on Trail Journals that a hiker started today and was number 369 at Amicalola. Tomorrow 50 are registered to start. There are more people registered to date than the total number of reported complete hikes in the 1980's. The number of hikers registered this year almost equal the total number of hikers who completed the trail from 1930 to 1990.
Well the numbers definitely are up. I read on Trail Journals that a hiker started today and was number 369 at Amicalola. Tomorrow 50 are registered to start. There are more people registered to date than the total number of reported complete hikes in the 1980's. The number of hikers registered this year almost equal the total number of hikers who completed the trail from 1930 to 1990.
Wish them the best but understand from folks down around Springer that they are getting pounded with daily rains, swollen creeks and more on the way.
Welcome to the AT!
It's those stupid signs that make people quit. I was at Newfound Gap over the weekend and saw the sign that said 1972 miles to Katahdin. Made me wonder why the hell anyone would keep going.
Slo-go'en
03-01-2018, 00:59
I'm thinking of getting a clicker so I can keep track of how many NOBO's I pass by in Virginia as I go SOBO from HF.