View Full Version : 2017 Kennebec Ferrry Service year-end report
craig dickstein
04-23-2018, 09:26
The Ferry Operator has posted his year-end report at www.matc.org/for-hikers/kennebec-river-ferry (http://www.matc.org/for-hikers/kennebec-river-ferry/). Please page down beyond the 2018 schedule to see the 2017 report. Constructive commentary is always welcomed. Offline comments may be sent to
[email protected].
-craig Dickstein, Kennebec Ferry Overseer
TJ aka Teej
04-23-2018, 11:59
Thanks, Craig.
Odd Man Out
04-23-2018, 17:01
It's interesting to have this one point of the trail where there is an accurate accounting of all hiker (thru, section, day, NOBO, SOBO, flip flop, etc...). I'm a little surprised that there are so many more thru hikers than section hikers.
It's interesting to have this one point of the trail where there is an accurate accounting of all hiker (thru, section, day, NOBO, SOBO, flip flop, etc...). I'm a little surprised that there are so many more thru hikers than section hikers.
the answer perhaps lies in the unanswerable question of how many people at any given moment are engaged in a "serious" section hike attempt.
whatever that number is, only some small percentage of them will need to cross the kennebec in any given year.
the interesting stat to me every time this data is released are the day hikers. to me the lowness of this number is why those who support just building a bridge across no matter the cost aren't seeing things clearly.
sure, were a bridge to be built there and a count of dayhikers was then taken, it might increase some. but at the end of the day i think the evidence shows that aside from when the bubble of nobos (and maybe sobos) comes through there are just very very few people who have any interest in crossing the river as part of a hike.
so a good guess from that would be 2500 finished in 2017 ?
craig dickstein
10-30-2018, 14:23
The 2017 year-end report has been replaced with the 2018 report on the MATC website. Attached here is a copy of the 2017 report.
-Craig Dickstein, MATC Kennebec Ferry Overseer,
[email protected]
TJ aka Teej
10-30-2018, 16:14
40 or so 2018 SoBos quit before getting to the Kennebec Ferry. 420 signed out at Katahdin Stream, 381 signed in at the Kennebec.
That's not bad IMO. Only a 10% loss after about two weeks of decent terrain.
T.S.Kobzol
10-30-2018, 17:03
I don't have a dog in the fight but I'd say that if You build a bridge beyond the services of the 'canoe' then you will attract additional hikers, bikers, snowmobillers etc.. You will also pickup winter traffic perhaps on the way to the Grand Falls Hut.
MuddyWaters
10-30-2018, 17:34
40 or so 2018 SoBos quit before getting to the Kennebec Ferry. 420 signed out at Katahdin Stream, 381 signed in at the Kennebec.
Or they yellow blazed a bit...same thing basically
LazyLightning
10-30-2018, 18:21
1,213 northbounders crossed the ferry and on Oct 17th I was #1,280 registering nobo at Baxter.
someone filling in for the ranger when I got there and signed up told me they usually have 2,000 nobos by this point , does this sound right?
That's about right. Probably with all the rain and weather problems down South, many just quit,
LazyLightning
10-30-2018, 19:54
I've been hearing there was a bigger drop out rate but I was surprised to see that big of a difference. There were no more then 50 people that signed up and summited after me, probably much less. According to those numbers that's about 1/3 less then average finishing which I've always heard is less then 25% of those who start.
In regards to the lowness of the number of day hikers using the ferry -
I can only speak for myself, but I've never day hiked southbound from Caratunk, with the main cause being that I didn't want to burden the ferry. I've probably day hiked from every other road accessible trail head in Maine going both directions. Of course, I used the ferry for thru and section hikes. I think the day hiker numbers would go up if a bridge was built, at least by 1. But I don't even know if a bridge is feasible.
Upon re reading my post - I'm not at all saying that day hikers shouldn't use the ferry because they are a burden. Only that I havent because I'm lucky enough to be able to get to any trail head, mostly any time I want, and so the ferry guy can save a few of his calories for the masses of long distance walkers.
In regards to the lowness of the number of day hikers using the ferry -
I can only speak for myself, but I've never day hiked southbound from Caratunk, with the main cause being that I didn't want to burden the ferry. I've probably day hiked from every other road accessible trail head in Maine going both directions. Of course, I used the ferry for thru and section hikes. I think the day hiker numbers would go up if a bridge was built, at least by 1. But I don't even know if a bridge is feasible.
Upon re reading my post - I'm not at all saying that day hikers shouldn't use the ferry because they are a burden. Only that I havent because I'm lucky enough to be able to get to any trail head, mostly any time I want, and so the ferry guy can save a few of his calories for the masses of long distance walkers.
dont live in the area and have only hiked thru once but my take on why there arent many day hikers goes like this-
1- if someone wants to day hike on a certain side of the river they can just park somewhere on that side. its hard to imagine a day hike that requires crossing the river and continuing an appreciable distance on either side, and then presumably crossing back again. this is generally true of most big river crossings. i live 40 mins from the bear mountain bridge and an hour from the crossing of the Delaware river. while i hike frequently in both areas i never plan hikes that requires me crossing the river back and forth. theres just no reason to do it.
2- here my memory may really be faulty, but i do believe it is quite a few miles AT south of the river before you encounter something that can be described as a likely popular day hike destination.
3- as others observe, dealing with the ferry is obviously perhaps more trouble than a day hiker may want to take on.
now #3 said, i still think #1 and #2 mean that building a bridge will not cause a sudden uptick in day hikers. well, aside from people who want to walk on the new bridge at first. i still think it would ultimately be a big expensive bridge that is used one time each by 2500 or so people a year.
A bridge crossing the Kennebec would have to be huge. Probably cost several million dollars and there is still no guarantee it won't wash out in the Spring floods.
This is the first year I can remember where there is tangible proof of fewer thru-hikers in Maine. There were 1302 NOBOs at the Kennebec in 2017 versus 1213 in 2018; 426 SOBOs in 2017 versus 381 in 2018; 275 flip-floppers in 2017 and 265 in 2018. Yes, it's possible that attrition was higher for NOBOs this year but that doesn't explain why SOBOs were also down in about the same proportion.
peakbagger
10-31-2018, 09:56
A bridge crossing the Kennebec would have to be huge. Probably cost several million dollars and there is still no guarantee it won't wash out in the Spring floods.
The James River Footbridge is probably the closest approximation. That was built on top of a set abandoned abutments of a railroad bridge It also didn't need to deal with ice flows.
swisscross
10-31-2018, 10:34
A bridge crossing the Kennebec would have to be huge. Probably cost several million dollars and there is still no guarantee it won't wash out in the Spring floods.
not that a bridge should be built but is Chinese can build a 34 mile sea bridge one would have to believe a bridge could be built over the Kennebec.
not that a bridge should be built but is Chinese can build a 34 mile sea bridge one would have to believe a bridge could be built over the Kennebec.
building a bridge is the easy part...
getting funding to build such bridge would be the tougher part......
T.S.Kobzol
10-31-2018, 10:56
Just send in the robots
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/04/07/mx3d-made-a-3d-printed-steel-bridge-in-midair.html
(Just kidding...I understand that bridge cost a fortune too)
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
not that a bridge should be built but is Chinese can build a 34 mile sea bridge one would have to believe a bridge could be built over the Kennebec.
there already several bridges over the kennebec. can one be built is clearly not the issue. not remotely. does it make sense to? thats another issue and one that requires being able to view the situation as not just being about the desires of a couple thousand hikers a year.
https://bridgehunter.com/category/waterway/kennebec-river/
LazyLightning
10-31-2018, 15:34
I thought the ferry crossing was awesome, took a little video going across. I think it goes well with the nature aspect of the trail being non motorized and not crossing a bridge for vehicles, or even any man made bridge. Maybe an official detour trail to the nearest bridge for when the ferry isn't running? …. I'm not saying that will stop anyone set on fording but just an option for an alternate way around, even if one is to hike back to the AT when the ferry is there to complete the entire thing. I have no idea how far the nearest bridge is though.... or if there is already an alternate way but I don't recall seeing any.
MuddyWaters
10-31-2018, 16:26
Aint that hard
Not that expensive
At least not impossibly expensive
Exist in backcountry in various places
But a canoe and paddler is cheaper
Dont need something a car can drive across
One of these
43965
Aint that hard
Not that expensive
At least not impossibly expensive
Exist in backcountry in various places
But a canoe and paddler is cheaper
Dont need something a car can drive across
One of these
43965
that looks a heck of a lot shorter a span than the kennebec.
last time we had this discussion someone cited this bridge as proof of feasibility of bridging the kennebec-
https://www.backpacker.com/news-and-events/new-bridge-finally-opens-vermonts-long-trail-end-to-end
from looking at pictures of it though it seems as though the actual part thats over the river is way shorter than the span of the kennebec. the overall length of the bridge is long but a good portion appears to be over land and the two towers are on the banks, not in the river.
but really i think thats all besides the point. a bridge simply doesnt need to exist just so 2000 people a year can walk across it one time.
it raises an interesting related, somewhat, question- what is the longest footbridge on the AT built entirely for purposes of the trail being on it? (so james river is out)
most of the major river crossings are sidewalks on motor vehicle bridges. the tye river maybe? its about all that comes to mind. the pochuck boardwalk perhaps, if you want to count all of that as being bridge. same for the similar one in VT i forget the name of.
Just Bill
10-31-2018, 17:09
That's not bad IMO. Only a 10% loss after about two weeks of decent terrain.
Certainly much lower drop rate than NOBO's in the same time period.
This the first year I can remember where there is tangible proof of fewer thru-hikers in Maine. There were 1302 NOBOs at the Kennebec in 2017 versus 1213 in 2018; 426 SOBOs in 2017 versus 381 in 2018; 275 flip-floppers in 2017 and 265 in 2018. Yes, it's possible that attrition was higher for NOBOs this year but that doesn't explain why SOBOs were also down in about the same proportion.
The following statements are not my personal opinion, but some observations and overhearings:
"The AT is overcowded and boring."
"There is nothing to see and you never really break treeline."
" It's infected with too many (insert group here) people."
On the positive side, perhaps things are calming down a little. The PCT is not only gaining in popularity but is also increasing in accessibility for beginners.
The old adage that one must do the AT before the PCT (and the PCT before the AT) is also no longer true and that may relieve some pressure.
Awareness of other trails is increasing, and the quality of those trails are going up too. No longer is the AT the only well cared for trail, nor the PCT the only 'remote' alternative. The CDT is not some taboo trail reserved for triple crowners only. There are a solid dozen good options out there.
There are decent long distance hikes available in nearly every region of our country now as well. So it's possible to scratch that first timers itch without trekking to Georgia to do it.
Also possible that those local trails are not only taking up a little slack, but also weeding out a few dreamers.
Or perhaps the curmudgeon's stance is correct; people like one and done day trips and extended hikes are not as popular.
And general outdoor use is down overall.
I realize that wasn't really what you were getting at...
But changes in usage patterns everywhere seem uncharacteristically off.
Aint that hard
Not that expensive
At least not impossibly expensive
Exist in backcountry in various places
But a canoe and paddler is cheaper
Dont need something a car can drive across
One of these
43965
That bridge is cute. Wouldn't make it through the first Spring thaw over the Kennebec. In a few months, I'll drive up to Caratunk and take some pics of the crossing, if I can get close enough to it.
Some info to clear up some misconceptions about the Kennebec crossing
The river is approximately 400-450 feet across at Caratunk, but a bridge would have to be a fair amount longer, my guess is 600 or more feet, to clear the banks and to be above the potential spring flood height and to also stay clear of the ice dams that happen every few winters up there.
The nearest existing bridge is 13 miles south as the crow flies in Bingham. In reality is more like a 20ish mile logging road walk down Bowtown Road and Carry Pond Roads.
The only other way across is to the north and would require using the Maine huts and trails system starting near Long Falls Dam road to cross the Dead River and onto their parking lot on rt 201. Then roadwalk from just above the forks roughly 8 miles down a very twisty heavy trafficked dangerous rt 201 to Caratunk. This would take you way way off the AT skipping over 17ish miles of the AT.
The last way to get across that I can think of is to use the Arnold Trail to shortcut the route to Bingham. Leaving the AT on the west side of East Carry Pond and following that to Carry Pond Road and then on to Bingham, 12ish miles or so.
Slo-go'en
10-31-2018, 21:08
The weather was not kind to thru hikers this year. The early starters got slammed with a couple of big snow storms and nasty cold temps. Then came the thunderstorms and resulting floods. Then the heat and humidity. I'm sure all that was a big factor in the lower numbers this year.
MuddyWaters
10-31-2018, 21:18
That bridge is cute. Wouldn't make it through the first Spring thaw over the Kennebec. In a few months, I'll drive up to Caratunk and take some pics of the crossing, if I can get close enough to it.
Only an example of a hiker suspension bridge.
Plenty more
Such as
43967
43966
Anyone that thinks it cant easily be done is foolish.
But paying some guy afew bucks to paddle people across is cheapest option. The payout on the bridge would probably take 50 yrs, not including maintenance costs
The payout on the bridge would probably take 50 yrs, not including maintenance costs
and why would anyone think that was worthwhile?
a bridge wide enough to carry 4 lanes of traffic in each direction and allow freighters to pass underneath it could be built at that location. it hasnt been done not because no one knows how, but because it isnt necessary.
neither is a bridge for hikers.
MuddyWaters
10-31-2018, 22:08
and why would anyone think that was worthwhile?
a bridge wide enough to carry 4 lanes of traffic in each direction and allow freighters to pass underneath it could be built at that location. it hasnt been done not because no one knows how, but because it isnt necessary.
neither is a bridge for hikers.
When you get down to it, neither is a canoe for hikers necessary.
Or having the AT at all
What you have AT for , is because people like it
And most do not like the canoe
They would rather have a bridge and cross at their convenience, under own power, if cant ford.
Reason more dont ford, is ATC has scared them into not fording anymore.
Id rather see AT with zero shelters, and a bridge.
Cost of 245 shelters might pay for a nice one.
somers515
10-31-2018, 22:23
It seems to me that the 224 foot LT Winooski footbridge (north of Maine junction so just LT not LT/AT) only saves a few miles of road walking and was put in for a cost of roughly 2 million dollars. Also I would think that there are fewer LT hikers north of Maine junction then AT hikers in Maine each year. It's an absolutely beautiful bridge by the way and I very much enjoyed crossing it.
https://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/news/local/2015/06/12/long-trail-footbridge-finally-opens-hikers/71143178/
Sounds like the Green Mountain Club had this as a goal though for a very long time.
I'm not familiar with the Kennebec crossing but thought this information re the LT bridge might add to the discussion. I take no position on what the best solution for the Kennebec crossing is but I'd be interested on the MATC's stance is on the matter if anyone knows. I would guess that they have given it some thought.
It seems to me that the 224 foot LT Winooski footbridge (north of Maine junction so just LT not LT/AT) only saves a few miles of road walking and was put in for a cost of roughly 2 million dollars. Also I would think that there are fewer LT hikers north of Maine junction then AT hikers in Maine each year. It's an absolutely beautiful bridge by the way and I very much enjoyed crossing it.
https://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/news/local/2015/06/12/long-trail-footbridge-finally-opens-hikers/71143178/
Sounds like the Green Mountain Club had this as a goal though for a very long time.
I'm not familiar with the Kennebec crossing but thought this information re the LT bridge might add to the discussion. I take no position on what the best solution for the Kennebec crossing is but I'd be interested on the MATC's stance is on the matter if anyone knows. I would guess that they have given it some thought.
That bridge is half the length of what would be required on the Kennebec, been in the planning stages for over a hundred years. I wouldnt hold my breath for a suspension bridge over the Kennebec any time, soon :-)
Another thing that can impact AT volume is the economy. When the economy is not doing well you get more older hikers taking early retirement and younger ones that are not able to find the job they want, and thus go on a long hike. When the economy is doing well a lot of your potential older hikers keep working and the younger ones find jobs they are interested in putting that alternative of a long distance hike off. I realize that does not impact everyone's decision, but could impact the 10-20% difference.
MuddyWaters
11-01-2018, 04:25
Another thing that can impact AT volume is the economy. When the economy is not doing well you get more older hikers taking early retirement and younger ones that are not able to find the job they want, and thus go on a long hike. When the economy is doing well a lot of your potential older hikers keep working and the younger ones find jobs they are interested in putting that alternative of a long distance hike off. I realize that does not impact everyone's decision, but could impact the 10-20% difference.
I find the trend of # AT journals on trailjournals interesting.
Peaked in 2014, declining the last few yrs. Has declined from.495 to 325. Lots of people that never start of course, but it shows something going on in peoples awareness or desire to hike AT. Potentially impact of movies,etc. Then again, people have realized how horribly and disgustingly overcrowded it is in spring, evidenced by early start shift.
2017-2018 decline.....coincidentally.....10%
Mapman. I'd surmise Just Bill has given you the answer. More folks are going elsewhere to hike or be outdoors. The AT is no longer the epicenter of the world's hiking venues. For the AT curmudgeons that doesn't however mean the AT is no less feeling "well used."
When you get down to it, neither is a canoe for hikers necessary.
Or having the AT at all
What you have AT for , is because people like it
And most do not like the canoe
They would rather have a bridge and cross at their convenience, under own power, if cant ford.
Reason more dont ford, is ATC has scared them into not fording anymore.
Id rather see AT with zero shelters, and a bridge.
Cost of 245 shelters might pay for a nice one.
Then there'd be hikers sleeping under the bridge. Trash and mice would follow.
And most do not like the canoe
They would rather have a bridge and cross at their convenience, under own power, if cant ford.
this assumes facts not in evidence
I find the trend of # AT journals on trailjournals interesting.
Peaked in 2014, declining the last few yrs. Has declined from.495 to 325. Lots of people that never start of course, but it shows something going on in peoples awareness or desire to hike AT. Potentially impact of movies,etc. Then again, people have realized how horribly and disgustingly overcrowded it is in spring, evidenced by early start shift.
2017-2018 decline.....coincidentally.....10%
people write less is probably a simpler answer given that the number of hikers was still going up while your trail journal numbers were declining.
MuddyWaters
11-01-2018, 07:36
this assumes facts not in evidence
Less so, than opposite view.
The AT is no longer the epicenter of the world's hiking venues.
was it ever? i have my doubts.
When you get down to it, neither is a canoe for hikers necessary.
very true. i really dont know why the AT isnt just routed over the nearest motor vehicle bridge. my guesses are theres some historical reason behind the location, theres issues with land access or its to avoid a roadwalk or something else otherwise undesirable.
but if it is going to cross where it crosses then some means of getting people across is probably wise.
as for not liking the canoe- i remember and likely will always remember crossing the kennebec because it was in a canoe. if it was a bridge i walked across its very doubtful i would.
peakbagger
11-01-2018, 10:42
Short version is MATC and NPS spent a lot of time and money in the 80s to lock the trail route through protected lands and have spent a lot more time and money getting the footbed in shape over these reroutes. The Maine Huts and Trails route that connects to the AT near Long Falls Dam road could access a bridge crossing over the Kennebec runs over private and Native American owned lands until RT 201. With a road walk south to Caratunk it could avoid the boat crossing.
The original AT route would have required serious aqua blazing as it is now under Flagstaff lake. This was formerly the Dead River prior to the dam being built flooding two towns not long after the AT was built. The original AT guides have descriptions of both the original AT route and the Arnold Trail and either route was official. Prior to the dam going in, they switched to the current Arnold Trail route which is a historical trail used by the Arnold expedition to attack Quebec during the revolutionary war. Think of them hauling large boats up out of the river up the steep slope and then through the woods when you hike through there. Mt Bigelow is named after the second in command as Mt Benedict Arnold may not a name that stuck a around long ;)
gpburdelljr
11-01-2018, 10:59
this assumes facts not in evidence
Less so, than opposite view.
That makes absolutely no sense.
Short version is MATC and NPS spent a lot of time and money in the 80s to lock the trail route through protected lands and have spent a lot more time and money getting the footbed in shape over these reroutes.
again, i dont remotely know all the details, but i wonder if maybe dedicating a great wealth of resources to a trail route that had issues with crossing the river was wise or not. perhaps other avenues were attempted and failed.
MuddyWaters
11-01-2018, 11:42
That makes absolutely no sense.
Plenty of evidence that a percentage of hikers prefer not to take canoe ride. In spite of hazard . Theres those that ford, and for every one that do, many talked about it and chicken out.
Wheres evidence that anyone would prefer canoe ride to another less hazardous option. Zero.
Given a suspension bridge or guy with canoe at same spot, same time....how many would get in canoe instead of walking across? Thats your ultimate answer. My prediction....virtually none. And that dont take into account
Restrictive hours of operation, or the wait either.
Seatbelt
11-01-2018, 11:53
The only complaints that I have read about the canoe ride are the limited hours of operation. I have not personally been there so I am not stating my opinion. I read numerous journals every year and watch as many vlogs as I can stomach, I don't remember anyone complaining about it(the ride itself) or voicing another preference.
Trainguy
11-01-2018, 12:45
Some info to clear up some misconceptions about the Kennebec crossing
The river is approximately 400-450 feet across at Caratunk, but a bridge would have to be a fair amount longer, my guess is 600 or more feet, to clear the banks and to be above the potential spring flood height and to also stay clear of the ice dams that happen every few winters up there.
The nearest existing bridge is 13 miles south as the crow flies in Bingham. In reality is more like a 20ish mile logging road walk down Bowtown Road and Carry Pond Roads.
The only other way across is to the north and would require using the Maine huts and trails system starting near Long Falls Dam road to cross the Dead River and onto their parking lot on rt 201. Then roadwalk from just above the forks roughly 8 miles down a very twisty heavy trafficked dangerous rt 201 to Caratunk. This would take you way way off the AT skipping over 17ish miles of the AT.
The last way to get across that I can think of is to use the Arnold Trail to shortcut the route to Bingham. Leaving the AT on the west side of East Carry Pond and following that to Carry Pond Road and then on to Bingham, 12ish miles or so.
Speaking of your ice jams on the Kennebec. Last Winter just above Caratunk. They can get worse and these broke up just before getting worse. It's quite the racket when these break up and a small wall of water heads downstream.
43968439694397043971
gpburdelljr
11-01-2018, 13:21
Plenty of evidence that a percentage of hikers prefer not to take canoe ride. In spite of hazard . Theres those that ford, and for every one that do, many talked about it and chicken out.
Wheres evidence that anyone would prefer canoe ride to another less hazardous option. Zero.
Given a suspension bridge or guy with canoe at same spot, same time....how many would get in canoe instead of walking across? Thats your ultimate answer. My prediction....virtually none. And that dont take into account
Restrictive hours of operation, or the wait either.
The fact that some ford the river is not evidence that they prefer it over the canoe. The fact that they do it does not make it a fact that they prefer it. Maybe they just don’t want to wait for the canoe, maybe they want to cool off in the water, which is also not a fact, but speculation just like your statement is not fact, or evidence, just speculation.
Your prediction that virtually no people would take the canoe if a bridge was available is only a prediction, based on no facts. Maybe after so much walking a short canoe ride might be a pleasant distraction, but that’s also not a prediction, or fact, just a possibility.
Muddy, you've provided no evidence whatsoever for the claim that most hikers prefer not to take the canoe.
Your prediction that virtually no people would take the canoe if a bridge was available is only a prediction, based on no facts. Maybe after so much walking a short canoe ride might be a pleasant distraction, but that’s also not a prediction, or fact, just a possibility.
i think if i arrived at a river and had my option of walking across a bridge or being paddled across in the canoe theres a very strong chance i'd take canoe. theres be other factors- weather, time of day, etc, but isnt like the canoe is just an absolute no under any circumstances
was it ever? i have my doubts.
For naw jarzeeins NJ is the epicenter of the world...period. :D
Lone Wolf
11-01-2018, 20:05
i prefer fording
MuddyWaters
11-01-2018, 21:23
i think if i arrived at a river and had my option of walking across a bridge or being paddled across in the canoe theres a very strong chance i'd take canoe. theres be other factors- weather, time of day, etc, but isnt like the canoe is just an absolute no under any circumstances
I think im pretty typical.
If there was a line or wait for canoe to return, id walk 100%.
But if it was 1/2mi farther via bridge than canoe....id probably likely wait for canoe, at least 30 min
Everything equal...id go with whats fastest, walking. But then ive been in canoes. Maybe it would be novel for people that never have.
The ATC had to work to get people to take canoe when first implemented. Smear campaign on fording, and call canoe the official route, painting blaze on it. Not everyone embraced it. A few notable old hikers still havent.