Weather: When to reschedule?

[VashFive]

Hey friends,

My question is, at what point in considering thunderstorms do you reschedule or change plans?

I plan on hiking Albert Mountain to NOC this weekend. Looks like there is a chance of thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.
The lightning storm thread got me rethinking this.



More Specifically:
Saturday: A chance of rain showers between 9am and 1pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66. Chance of precipitation is 50%.Saturday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. Chance of precipitation is 60%.Sunday: Rain showers likely before 1pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66. Chance of precipitation is 60%.Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7pm and 10pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. Chance of precipitation is 30%


Thoughts?

Thanks!

[Jayne]

When it's no longer fun? It really depends on what you want to accomplish and your experience level. If you've got appropriate gear and some experience then there is no reason that you couldn't go IMHO. If you want to build your hiking in the rain skills then by all means go. HYOH. At a certain point section hiking in thunderstorms just seems like suffering for the sake of suffering to me though.

[FlyPaper]

Here is the section in question...

http://www.atdist.com/atdist?k1=AXX&k2=BI&h=dbb08225&year=2018

That is 37.0 miles for a weekend. Seems like a fast pace.

Although rain is not pleasant, it doesn't sound like a total wash out and you're not really asking about that.

For lightning, I'd mainly be concerned with being on a peak, especially a bald during lightning. I don't recall there being a whole lot of ridge walking nor open areas in that section. Usually lightning storms pass over quickly and you may have to wait it out for half an hour to an hour in a safe location if you're caught in one. That might be tough to do when covering 37 miles in a weekend.

Instead of postponing your trip, you may consider shortening it to give yourself a little more flexibility in dealing with rain and lightning.

[devoidapop]

Looks like the most likely time period for thunderstorms is Saturday night. Where do you plan to camp that night? You might be able to get a more accurate forecast for that location from AT weather or mountain forecast.

[MuddyWaters]

If you want to hike you're going to have to hike in the rain.
It's not a big deal . Its part of it . Makes you appreciate it when it quits raining.

50 or 60% chance of rain is 40 or 50% chance of sun it's not going to rain all day even if you get a little sprinkle.

When the forecast is for 90 or a hundred percent chance of rain all day that's when it's time to double think your plans

There's also a rain bias in the weather forecast. People are happier to hear it's going to rain and it doesn't than if they are told its not going to rain and it does.

[Fredt4]

I hiked out of the White Mountains in 2011 during (as in the middle of) hurricane Irene. About the only thing I have to say is that you don't have to worry about rain gear as you will be wet. I came down a trail that had no marked streams and the most spectacular stream was running down the ways, yes it was a temporary stream but it was spectacular nevertheless. As a thru-hiker I didn't really consider it and extraordinary event at the time. As a section hiker I might reconsider. Here's what Wikipedia has to say about it.
"In Vermont, rainfall totals of 4–7 in (100–180 mm) were common. Approximately 800 homes were damaged or destroyed. Additionally, nearly 2,400 roads and 300 bridges were damaged or washed away, several of which were covered bridges (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Covered_bridges)built more than 100 years prior to the storm. Flooding in Vermont was considered the worst since the flood of November 1927 (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Vermont_Flood_of_1927), with uninsured losses alone reaching about $733 million."

In short I'd say let your experience determine whether you reconsider the hike, but remember it may be the hike you'll remember.

[Berserker]

When it's no longer fun? It really depends on what you want to accomplish and your experience level. If you've got appropriate gear and some experience then there is no reason that you couldn't go IMHO. If you want to build your hiking in the rain skills then by all means go. HYOH. At a certain point section hiking in thunderstorms just seems like suffering for the sake of suffering to me though.
This ^

If you are experienced in hiking in the rain and don't mind it then go for it. If getting just a tad bit damp causes you great mental anguish then reschedule. As for the lightening, just stay off the peaks when it is storming.

[tdoczi]

I hiked out of the White Mountains in 2011 during (as in the middle of) hurricane Irene.

side note- the whites are the one place i always tell people not to go to in bad weather. not because of danger or anything like that, but having hiked parts of it in good weather and parts of it in bad weather it just feels like a total suckfest when the weather is bad. utter misery with little to no redeeming value. any thru hiker i ever met who said they hated the whites, if i talk to them a bit about it, without fail, they had rain.

unless you have a thing for hiking in the rain it just really seems like youre making a mistake and missing out by hiking through them in bad weather.

theres probably some other places here and there like that as well. thats part of my determination of whether to go in the rain sometimes. a hike in MD and southern PA in the rain is an entirely different proposition than a hike in NH/ME in the rain.

i'm not personally familiar with the area youre considering so cant really comment in that sense.

[Emerson Bigills]

Fred's last comment was very key. You can have numerous hikes, the ones in 60 degree and sunny weather you will enjoy, but quickly forget about and never talk to your friends about them. Hike on a ridge in a rainstorm and you will never forget it and talk about it frequently. Type 2 fun is the reason backpackers keep going back out. Like Muddy suggested, if it sounds like a 90% chance of a washout, you might want to stay home, but dancing with Mother Nature is one of the thrills out there.

[BuckeyeBill]

The only time I don't go is if the trail is closed where I intended to hike. Rain, snow (I have snow shoes), hale or lightning doesn't stop me from heading out. If the weather turns real sour, I hunker down and ride it out. I wonder what people do when they are already out hiking then the ***** hits the fan weather wise, go home, find a motel, or ride it out? Depends on how long they have been hiking and knowing how to read the signs for foul weather. Also you can really check out how you and your gear under the worst conditions. I can tell you my CF tarp from Hammock Gear is great to be under during a rain storm. Reminds me of laying in the barn hay loft with a tin roof during a rain storm. Puts you right to sleep.Have fun on your hike, hope all goes well for you.

[peakbagger]

It really depends on the exposure. If its above treeline or an exposed ridge, I will probably find an alternative. When section hiking the AT with car support, we would mix up slackpacks to avoid bad weather on exposed sections by switching over to low elevation woods walk.

[Tundracamper]

Isn't that the section that experienced the wildfire? If it is, I hiked that section last year and there wasn't much new growth and most of the trees were dead. If it hasn't re-grown much, it seems to me you would experience lots of mud. Also, not much tree cover on the ridgeline. Perhaps someone that has done that section recently can comment on the ground cover, if any. I could see that section turning into one big mud puddle in a heavy rain

[lonehiker]

I've shifted a short hike a day or two to avoid starting a trip in crappy weather. If you have the flexibility why not choose better weather? If you are on a more rigid schedule then sometimes it means hiking in the rain. On long hikes it just becomes another day. If lightning is involved I will continue hiking if I'm in wooded terrain but if entering exposed areas I will hunker down until the lightning quits. I have had two strikes so close that it left a taste in my mouth. So I have become a bit more cautious around lightning.

[Ashepabst]

even at 100% chance, that's still just telling you that it's going to rain at some point. what deters me is a chance of rain all day, which the forecast a'int gonna tell you until a few days prior. If the weather folks parsed their words a little more carefully they would say that there's a chance of rain, which might involve thunderstorms.

I've done surely dozens of trips with that kind of forecast over the years --you really can't avoid it in the warmer months in the East-- and I can only recall a few strong storms that I've experienced in the backcountry. none of them were worse than a persistent cold rain.

[evyck da fleet]

For a weekend trip with a forecast of 100% rain both days I’d reschedule. If this is the only time you can go I’d plan on being on Albert Mtn for sunrise, past Siler Bald by 1pm and hope to catch a good weather windows for the other towers. Or you could wait for the forecast to improve and reschedule if it doesn’t. You can always go back.

[Huntmog]

One of my favorite weekend trips of all time will forever be 24 hours of rain with 3 good friends and sleeping in paul c Wolfe as the monsoon beat the roof. One of my least favorite will always be solo hiking in hurricane Matthew. My lesson learned: friends made the misery of rain worth it.