Karel Sabbe supported attempt

[chknfngrs]

Starting in two weeks willing to bet it’ll be fun to watch

[TravisRex]

Here's his declaration post on FKT.com

Hi all, I'm now about one week before starting my speed record attempt on the A.T. and as it's getting really busy with last-hand preparations I'm announcing it officially here now.

I'm Karel Sabbe from Belgium and I'm a 28 year old hiker / ultrarunner. I learned a lot about running a long-distance hiking trail by setting the F.K.T. on the Pacific Crest Trail in 2016, which is why I take on this new challenge and why I believe there's a possibility that I'll make it. I also have long-distance hiking experience from hiking New Zealands Te Araroa Trail, the Pyrenean High Route, the Sierra High Route, Corsica's GR-20, .. I also ran the Marathon des Sables in 2016 during which I learned a lot about running in heat and how to hydrate in those conditions.

My friend and brother-in-law Joren Biebuyck will be there to support me all the way again (he's a physiotherapist which is very helpful during this record attempt) and he also has a lot of crewing experience from being there the entire PCT which is way more remote and harder to access for crews.

In addition I'm having some friends coming over to run sections with me (of 1-3 weeks), and my wife Emma will be there during the entire month of August.

I'm going for the overall record set by Joe McConaughy last year, and I've been in touch with him a lot discussing my record attempt. He'll probably join us for a weekend as well which would be awesome. Jennifer Pharr Davis, Scott and Karl have all been really helpful as well with advice - that is one of the nice things about this FKT community.

Like my PCT run I will also verify this record as a Guinness World Record attempt, because it is nice to go for an official world record and to have a neutral and professional instance analyze all my data and claims. After my PCT run they asked very detailed questions like "Why were you running at 40mph on day 29 in the evening?" (I forgot to switch off my Strava and was in the car to go to a pizza place near the trail).

I will start on Springer Mountain, on the 18th of July and will be going northbound. It will be very hot but Joe has proven that it is possible to do it at this time of year. Other times of the year have other hazards so I'm feeling OK with what is coming and will try to adapt and overcome as things come up to us (heat waves, storms, etc.)

Like during my PCT run I will use a tracker that updates my location every 4 minutes. In addition I will track everything on Strava and will upload to Strava when cell service allows. The live-tracking website will be www.ATspeedrecord.com . We'll try to include Joe's GPS data on this site so you can see Joe moving on the map as well so people can have an idea of how I'm doing compared to the current record. We'll try to add Scott's data as well but he hasn't been able to extract it yet from his DeLorme device/website.

Updates will come on the Facebook page Karel Sabbe Ultrarunning.

The reason of the attempt is pretty simple: I love running and I love adventures. It's a unique opportunity to be able to run a trail like this with a crew, and I feel privileged to be able to do it. I don't know the Appalachian Trail which is a weakness but also a strength as I'm very curious to what's coming and to the scenery that I'll run through. I think the A.T. is a unique trail and I look forward to hike/run it. I also have the possibility of being record holder of both A.T. and P.C.T. at the same time which would be a first (David Horton and Joe McConaughy have held both records but not a the same time I think).

Hoping for a safe and unforgettable experience!

Wish me luck,

Karel

[capehiker]

I like that he is registering with Guinness Book of World Records as this will solidify a specific FKT format going forward.

[Slo-go'en]

No doubt his running mantra will be "They call this a trail?"

[Burrhead]

Good luck!! Remember...it's not the heat, it's the humidity.

[matthew.d.kirk]

Here's his declaration post on FKT.com

Thanks TRex for the repost. Karel’s site appears as if it will be as transparent as Harvey’s. Such accessible and detailed tracking is quite laudable for any serious FKT attempt in this day and age. Not trying to drift too far here, but I’d like to share a thought:

A recent opinion piece by JPD (linked in the Harvey thread) is an interesting critique of some aspects of supported attempts like Harvey’s. I anticipate a similar sentiment for Karel’s given the doppelganger commercialized tracking sites, but we’ll see.

As a big fan of the small footprint and self-supported style since BMT in 2009, I’m mostly in agreement with JPD’s view, but have to stop short of putting Joe’s performance on such a high pedestal. This irks me, as I too would love to lavish the praise.

Timely transparency is a perpetual shortcoming for some recent self-supported efforts on the AT. On one hand, this is understandable. There’s likely no energy drink IT/social media machine managing and mapping such small-scale efforts…

On the other hand, if a couple techno-noobs can produce publicly accessible, timely and thorough records of FKT efforts from the trail by fat-fingering flip phones (sans-SPOT) circa 2013/14, it’s reasonable to expect at least as much from those that follow.

I understand the need for opacity while on the trail, especially when cruising crewless. But to deem decent documentation and stealth for safety’s sake as mutually exclusive is wrong. Just look at Joey’s blog. He also trialed a DIY delayed track map last year.

Now that the bar’s set so stratospherically high, spending just one hour vlogging (rough estimate total from 2013) might seem too costly a time expenditure for an FKTer (I don’t agree). A “set it and forget it” mapping solution could help quell this concern.

In short, despite critique, most supported FKT attempts have had timely transparency pretty dialed, while self-supported attempts, not so much. There’s still some room for improvement on JPD’s pedestal. So for the FKTers to come, I say watch and learn.

[TravisRex]

I like that he is registering with Guinness Book of World Records as this will solidify a specific FKT format going forward.

Well...yes and no. Pete Kostelnick, who ran cross country went through the effort of submitting for a Guinness World Record. And the verification is still pending. He was recently a guest on the TenJunkMiles podcast and wouldn't go into much detail but it was clear if he was doing it again, he wouldn't bother with the certification efforts. There's a post somewhere about his TransCon where he shows binders of information that he submitted and on the Pete's Feet Across America Facebook page there is a picture of witness statements from the police officers when one of the crew vehicles was involved in an accident. The amount of information needed for certification by Guinness is incredibly high, and arguably too high for anyone but a supported runner.

[Just Bill]

I like that he is registering with Guinness Book of World Records as this will solidify a specific FKT format going forward.
Agree with Travis Rex. As a parent... this just strikes me as going to mommy for permission after daddy told you no.

Simply put: I'm sure Guinness is perfectly capable of verifying that somebody covered 2600 miles of distance in the manner they claimed.
The issue was that the FKT community did not agree that the 2600 miles covered were the correct 2600.

These are not road races or controlled environments. The fact they take place in an inherently unpredictable natural environment on a tenuously maintained trail is what makes them what they are.
You can do everything right and still fail; that's life in the woods.

If simply to run a multi-thousand mile race were the goal... there are much better ways to do it... including recording and verification.
All the random perils of the trip and the highly unlikely probability that all will go your way makes them special.

That said- you may be right that it would solidify a specific FKT format.

However that format would be different than the one that Karel voluntarily set out to partake in.
The very format and community who cares for the FKT he chose to chase.
If he had declared his intentions with guiness, and submitted his hike only to them... more power to him.
But that is not what he did.

As I see it... he voluntarily agreed to participate in the format that existed.
And he is doing so again by declaring his intentions to the community on the FKT site. (with a few digs at that community too).
And he is 'hedging his bets' that if he doesn't like the decision of the community he agreed to join that he will go outside it once more if needed.
As always- my best to any hiker.
Walk in Peace.

[Just Bill]

And for whatever it's worth-
Horton and Stringbean have both held AT and PCT records, but not at the same time.
The honor of holding them both at once is a podium that Heather Anderson stands alone on.
Though if you wanted to talk overall regardless of style I believe Stringbean bested her time on the PCT prior to her AT record.
However Heather's supported time still stands.
Technically Anish held the AT, PCT and AZT self-supported FKT at the same time.

Course you could debate that simply snagging the overall is not enough as Stringbean's current gauntlet was thrown down self-supported.
Overall is overall but if truly comparing mano y mano its hard to ignore style.
Course that claim would be assuming you'd be willing to ignore the asterisk on Karel's current PCT effort and the AT doesn't surprise him with the unique challenges it has presented to others before him.

Perhaps Guiness can sort it out.
I know drinking them is of tremendous assistance.
A stout glass of pumpernickel comes in handy when I've had a few too many Belgiums the night prior.

[SteelCut]

It looks like Karel's tracker is now live:

https://www.skins.net/usa/appalachian?

[DownYonder]

It looks like Karel's tracker is now live:

https://www.skins.net/usa/appalachian?

I like the tracker but doesn't give his time. Does anyone know his official start time?

[TrailRunnerGuy]

If you zoom in and click it looks to be 4:31:48am today (July 18). btw the circled numbers are in KMs, right? Gooch Mountain (15.7 miles) is showing between the 20 and 30. He's about 20KM in at 7:52am, so 12 miles in just over 3 hours.

[TrailRunnerGuy]

I'm not saying that's official, but it's probably really close.

[Odd Man Out]

If you zoom in and click it looks to be 4:31:48am today (July 18). btw the circled numbers are in KMs, right? Gooch Mountain (15.7 miles) is showing between the 20 and 30. He's about 20KM in at 7:52am, so 12 miles in just over 3 hours.

The circled numbers are kilometers, but they seem to be only approximations. The data I have for 2018 says the total length of the AT is 2190.9 miles. This converts to 3525.9 km. But if you zoom in on Baxter peak on his tracker, you see this is marked at just past 3417 km.

[DownYonder]

If you zoom in and click it looks to be 4:31:48am today (July 18). btw the circled numbers are in KMs, right? Gooch Mountain (15.7 miles) is showing between the 20 and 30. He's about 20KM in at 7:52am, so 12 miles in just over 3 hours.

When I zoom in and click all I get is today's date, time and % battery remaining.

[SteelCut]

Toggle to OSM map. opentopomap.org appears to be having problems. The toggle to switch maps is on the right by the zoom controls.

[DownYonder]

Day 1: 83km....15km ahead of Stringbean

[Odd Man Out]

When I zoom in and click all I get is today's date, time and % battery remaining.

On my screen I go to the "Participant List" window to the left of the screen and click the "Show Participants Course" icon (looks like a folded map, between the eyeball and magnifying glass). Zoom in close and you will see a series of blue dots connected by a yellow line. Click on the blue dot to get the data for that tracking point. They are usually running one per minute, with a few gaps. Speaking of gaps, there is a bit of an anomaly at the end of today's track.

[James GAME2009]

No doubt his running mantra will be "They call this a trail?"
This I doubt. It has been noted that Karel has completed the Sierra High Route, which is certainly one of the contiguous 48's most challenging hiking objectives. The AT, even in many of its most difficult sections, is a stroll in comparison.

Speaking of the SHR, I was unable to find any details on how long it took Karel to hike it. Does anyone have any insight or additional information? From what I've read of Karel and this attempt thus far, he has my vote of confidence.

[DownYonder]

11:30 am at NC/GA border.

https://www.instagram.com/explore/tags/whereskarel/

[kolokolo]

I don’t see any tracking updates since 7:24 AM today around km 186. Frustrating....

[black chucks]

Update at 11:22 am Saturday:
288 km
(about 16 miles short of Clingmans Dome)

[pbakwin]

It's a bummer to see such large gaps in the tracking - nearly 27 hours and over 100 km. That may provoke controversy later, especially since there are no updates on IG during the same time. I hope someone is in contact with Karel's crew & can let them know that this is a potential issue. But, I expect they'll fill it in with non-tracker GPS data later (GPX).

[Odd Man Out]

There was a comment on his Facebook page yesterday and a reply from the crew, so yes they are aware.

[chknfngrs]

Better than cable tv I tell ya

[matthew.d.kirk]

It's a bummer to see such large gaps in the tracking - nearly 27 hours and over 100 km. That may provoke controversy later, especially since there are no updates on IG during the same time. I hope someone is in contact with Karel's crew & can let them know that this is a potential issue. But, I expect they'll fill it in with non-tracker GPS data later (GPX).
PB, do you know what kind of tracker he’s using? I’m not familiar with the mapping platform either, but this missing data may be recoverable. Such kinks reinforce the need for alternate forms of documentation. Trackers aren’t perfect on the AT.

Still feel guilty relaying the recommendation for a spot trace to Joey last year. Seems the MTB folks over at trackleaders.com really like these relatively light/cheap units, but Joey found it to be a bit of a PIA on his AT SOBO. Despite setbacks, I’d still deem his trial of a delayed live-track map a success.

[pbakwin]

I do not know what tracker they're using. SPOT devices have proven over and over to be poor on the AT. Karel should have known this by now, and should have used an InReach. These days not having good tracking on the AT is a problem for the FKT. GPX files don't cut it. They'll need excellent photo evidence, combined with GPX and a thorough trip report. Then you (Matt) & Just Bill, or somebody, will have to spend weeks vetting whatever they submit! Frustrating. Once again, no track point since yesterday afternoon, and no posts on IG anyway (I'm not following FB). Joe & Joey both did much better while self supporting.

[matthew.d.kirk]

Frustrating. Once again, no track point since yesterday afternoon, and no posts on IG anyway (I'm not following FB). Joe & Joey both did much better while self supporting.

Scott used an InReach. Anyone else? His seemed the most detailed and accessible track to date for an AT FKT, so I certainly understand your plug. When eventually made accessible, Joe’s and Anish’s tracks proved pretty good (i.e. averaging multiple signals per 24 hours) and I think both were using spots. I have no personal experience (or financial interest) to plug one over the other.

Maybe there’s already another device out there better at penetrating the canopy of Appalachian rainforest. Or maybe there’s an app that supplements GPS signal with triangulation of cellular towers…? RE FKT validation: no matter what type of tracker, or what mapping platform is/isn’t used, the best data would be both timely (live, or near to) and transparent (publicly accessible).

IMO, it’s best to get as many eyes on this stuff ASAP. You’ve said it before that you don’t want to be the arbiter here, and I’ll tell you right now, neither do I! Bill can speak for himself;). Please understand that I really appreciate your efforts to get FKTers to publish their info concurrently with any claim and not month(s) after the fact. As for Karel, he may be ahead in kilometers, but falling behind in documentation.

…There are still many miles, er kilometers left to Big K!

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Scott used an InReach. Anyone else? His seemed the most detailed and accessible track to date for an AT FKT, so I certainly understand your plug. When eventually made accessible, Joe’s and Anish’s tracks proved pretty good (i.e. averaging multiple signals per 24 hours) and I think both were using spots. I have no personal experience (or financial interest) to plug one over the other.



I'm virtually certain Harvey Lewis used InReach as well. You could view his track through https://share.garmin.com/harveylewis , and when I saw the physical tracker it looked like an InReach when I view it now. I think his team just put a front end program on it with Esri/ArcGIS. I think TravisRex might have explained it in Harvey's thread.

Scott's tracker was a little spotty early on. I was watching closely as he was approaching my area, to try to get a few miles in with him, but saw nothing that day. I only knew where they had stopped the night before, but didn't realize he got a late start. When I did finally see him on the trail, I asked and he said he thought it wasn't working so he had turned it off. Or maybe back then you had to hit a button to mark a point, rather than it happening every x minutes automatically, and he had stopped doing that. I told him it had been working well the day before, and he started using it again.

[pbakwin]

The InReach uses a much better satellite network than SPOT, and seems to work in forest cover much better. This is well known. Having the tracker set for 1 min. intervals is pointless and invites problems, including running out of batteries. It is much better to have several (strategic) points per day, every day, than 150 points one day and zero the next. Any gap of longer than a few hours is problematic as it can invite speculation of a section of the trail being skipped. Others have had both tracking and pretty frequent (at least daily) social media updates. Scott was posting on Twitter, and tons of people were meeting him & running with him, so it would have been virtually impossible for him to skip a section. So far we haven't heard from anyone who has met with or run with Karel. There's been a gap of nearly 28 hours (Fri a.m. to Sat a.m.), and now apparently just 1 point since yesterday evening. What's going on out there? It's early in the trip, but these issues need to be addressed & fast! This is the AT, not some rinky-dink FKT attempt on an obscure trail!

[matthew.d.kirk]

I'm virtually certain Harvey Lewis used InReach as well. You could view his track through https://share.garmin.com/harveylewis , and when I saw the physical tracker it looked like an InReach when I view it now. I think his team just put a front end program on it with Esri/ArcGIS. I think TravisRex might have explained it in Harvey's thread.

Thanks for the clarification, TrailRunnerGuy. Credit where credit's due: Harvey and team did a great job with tracking, no doubt about it.


There's been a gap of nearly 28 hours (Fri a.m. to Sat a.m.), and now apparently just 1 point since yesterday evening. What's going on out there? It's early in the trip, but these issues need to be addressed & fast! This is the AT, not some rinky-dink FKT attempt on an obscure trail!

Don't worry, Guinness will surely sort it all out... :rolleyes:

[pbakwin]

Don't worry, Guinness will surely sort it all out... :rolleyes:

So the Irish say. Oh wait you’re not talking about the beer...

[Odd Man Out]

On their FB page, WRT the tracking fail, the team posted that they were confident the data is stored on the device and will be made public later. If true, then this is only a big problem for us armchair trail-runners.

[chknfngrs]

yep it’s still very early.

[pbakwin]

On their FB page, WRT the tracking fail, the team posted that they were confident the data is stored on the device and will be made public later. If true, then this is only a big problem for us armchair trail-runners.

Actually, no. The point of real time tracking is that it gives data in real time so there is transparency & it’s relatively hard to falsify. If the data is “stored on the device” (which SPOT & InReach devices don’t do), then it’s just like a gps watch. This also highlights an issue with the interface they’re using to display the data from the device. A skeptical person could ask “How do we know they’re not feeding fake data into the display interface?” We don’t even know what tracker they’re using. Karel’s team should give us the direct link to the real time tracker data, which is a step closer to what’s actually happening on the trail.

Sooner or later a journalist is going to call & say “what do you think?” To now Karel’s tracker is returning about 40-50%. How is this better than, say, Knotts? If a journalist calls tomorrow I’ll have to say “who knows what Karel is doing?”

Or, to turn the scenario around, what if a malicious person falsely reports witnessing Karel yellow blazing? How would we know if that’s not true? Tracking is for the benefit of the ATHLETE. No one reacts well to others doubting their claims, so make it easy to believe. Actually, you want to make it hard NOT to believe.

[pbakwin]

OK, I'll walk back a bit of what I said above. I looked at legendstracking.com , which is the service they are using. It is not SPOT or InReach, and I am not familiar with it. Apart from whether it's a wise choice to use a new (for our purposes untested) service like this for a big AT FKT attempt, it seems legit. As far as I can tell, the tracker does NOT send data to a satellite, but rather uses cell technology to transmit the data to the legendstracking site. So, the gaps either reflect the tracker not connecting to the gps satellites (therefore not being able to determine position), or the tracker not being able to connect to the cell network and send the data out. IF the latter, then their comment that the data is stored on the device might be correct. HOWEVER, the legendstracking site clearly states that the device will hold "up to 3000 points". At 1 min intervals that's just over 2 days, which is about how much data is already missing from the tracking site. Also, data is supposed to be automatically uploaded from the device once the cell connection is re-established, and this clearly has not happened since if it did the data gaps would be filled in.

Won't some one lend them an InReach device!?

I've emailed Karel directly about these issues, but he has not responded (no surprise) & I personally have no other way of getting in touch with the team (I'm not on FB). My goal is to help them be as transparent as possible, which will save hassles for them (& ME!) later.

[LittleRock]

Did the km units on his tracker throw anyone else off?

I checked it and went from "430 miles in 5 days?!?" to "Wait, he's in Hot Springs... that's not 430 miles!!!" to "Ohhhh... it's in kilometers.".

This must be what people from other countries think when they come to the US.

[Tundracamper]

It looks like Karel's tracker is now live:

https://www.skins.net/usa/appalachian?

When I click this link, it goes to a page for Women’s Sportswear. What am I missing?

[matthew.d.kirk]

I've emailed Karel directly about these issues, but he has not responded (no surprise) & I personally have no other way of getting in touch with the team (I'm not on FB). My goal is to help them be as transparent as possible, which will save hassles for them (& ME!) later.

Peter, is this a different tracking platform than what Karel used on his PCT FKT? Speaking of, as far as I know, Karel deferred (preferred) the Guinness analysis and ruling over that of the PCT FKT community. Assuming an AT FKT claim, the same thing will likely unfold here. Which begs the question, all beer jokes aside, what data analysis could Guinness possibly use to rule out some of these concerns?

[pbakwin]

This system wouldn't work on the PCT because there is seldom cell coverage. I don't recall what tracker (if any, maybe just a GPS watch?) Karel used on the PCT. I don't believe he announced his PCT attempt on the old Proboards FKT website.

[stefschuermans]

Hi Peter and others, this is Stef from Legends Tracking (www.legendstracking.com). Allow me to answer some of the questions that have come up regarding Karel’s live gps tracking.

1. As Peter mentioned in a previous post, Karel is not using a SPOT or a Garmin InReach device, but a tracker that gets its position from a satellite (just as the SPOT or a Garmin inReach) and then sends that position to the application server via mobile network (unlike SPOT or Garmin InReach which also use satellite for that). There are multiple reasons why we (and Karel) use this type of tracker (1) as we all know, the quality of the SPOT satellite network and reception is not that good (in numerous tests where a runner had both a SPOT and our device, our device significantly outperformed the SPOT). (2) The SPOT and Garmin are about 4 times heavier compared to our tracker. (3) Using our tracker allows for a lot more positions to be taken instead of the 2.5min, 5min or 10min standard intervals. (4) Karel used exactly the same tracker during his PCT attempt in 2016, which worked fully as expected.

2. When there is no mobile network available, the tracker will store the positions received from the satellite (every minute) in an internal buffer, and the tracker can store up to 3000 locations in its buffer. As soon as there is mobile network again, the tracker gives priority to new positions (live) but then also starts emptying its buffer. For example, today between 10.57am and 11.22am, there was on and off mobile reception and the tracker was able to send 22 new positions, and about 200 positions out of the buffer (Please note that you can see the difference between ‘live’ points and ‘buffered’ points by the dark and light blue colour). Network signal was not strong enough and not available for enough time to send all lines out of the buffer, so they will come in during the next moment of mobile reception. Please note that Karel has two trackers, meaning 6000 possible buffer lines, accounting for 100hours (and since the tracker is turned off at night, this should be good for a couple days each time). UPDATE: while writing this, another set of positions has been sent from the buffer.

43244
43245

3. Unfortunately, compared to 2016 on the Pacific Crest Trail, all mobile providers except T-Mobile, have de-activated GPRS (2G) networks in the United States. We should have known that, but didn’t, so we’re to blame for that. This explains why the mobile reception for the trackers (so not for his facebook or instagram or other stuff, which I assume he’s doing with a mobile phone) is so low at the moment. Here in Europe, where Legends Tracking mainly operates and where we have ca. 200 events each year, sometimes events with more than 500 participants with a tracker at the same time, every country has GPRS (2G), and will have so at least for the next 10 years.

4. For now, we will have to hope that from time to time Karel passes a zone with T-Mobile network coverage, so that his positions can be sent to our servers (and immediately automatically displayed on the tracking website). Next week, Karel’s wife will be coming to the US as well, and she will bring 2 new trackers that also operate on UTSM (3G), which will drastically increase the ‘live’ coverage of Karel’s adventure, because then the tracker can use any mobile provider again.

5. As a side note, please see below an image of the locations that Scott Jurek (previous record holder) shared on his Garmin InReach page during the first 14! days (each blue dot is a location).
43246
The image below is a detail of Scott’s tracking data the section where Karel is at the moment. Indeed, you see it correctly, no tracking at all from Scott in this section.
43247

6. As a second side note, when looking at the tracking data of Joe (Stringbean) McConaughy, which we received from Joe himself, I can see that during the first 6 days, there were in total 17 positions send with his SPOT. Looking at both the quality of data from Joe and Scott (unfortunately we couldn’t get the data of Karl Meltzer), I don’t think Karel is doing bad in providing data.

7. As a third and last side note, for those having issues with the kilometer markers, get used to how things are done in the rest of the world 
Don’t hesitate to ask more questions about the platform and the technology. Please note that I’m not going to answer on other questions regarding Karel’s FKT, since that is fully up to him and his crew of course.

[CalebJ]

Stef, thanks for taking the time to clarify a lot of the background info here!

[matthew.d.kirk]

Don’t hesitate to ask more questions about the platform and the technology.

Stef, It looks as if you have the files, so is trackleaders still planning to add Scott's and Joe's historical NOBO tracks to the participants list of the map (for comparison purposes)? Thank you for helping to walk us through the learning curve. Good luck to Karel on his quest to become a 2000-miler, or should I now say 3500-kilometerer?! :p

[Just Bill]

The proper beer for sorting things out remains the same:
43252

Though rotating photos remains an obstacle.

Nobody wants to be a referee... I'd rather drink and sew things.
Besides everyone knows my specialty is concise posts well grounded in reality. I think we'd all prefer I stick to that :D

Until folks turn in solid and complete trips from start to finish... questions will remain.

As the sport grows, and more folks learn what that truly means I think the concept of community review gets closer each year.
Especially as the fan base becomes more aware of, and less tolerant towards, shenanigans.
I also think having these discussions publicly helps folks understand better what is involved.

Though it would be helpful if the actual participants would.

In the meantime...
I drink. And I know things.

[Just Bill]

Stef-

Merci or Dank u to you for jumping in... language in Belgium is as hard as Kilometers for us. Though your beer remains deliciously and pleasantly complicated.

It was a bit strange to us here during Jurek's high profile attempt why Garmin didn't provide a staff member or some sort of PR person to help promote their service... so well done on that to your company. Overall Jurek's trip was a missed opportunity to highlight the tracking and if your service is superior I wish you luck in taking this opportunity to promote it.

How is your device powered? Battery life?
I assume Karel is carrying two devices so that his crew can charge one and exchange it with another?

Waterproof devices... or are they prone to failure?
The AT is like a rainforest down south and notorious for ending the lives of electronic devices prematurely... especially when one is hiking in the rain and not taking cover from it.

Not sure that fully would explain any gaps if all was working properly... but as you point out Scott had problems that had little to do with the device (like leaving it in the van).

I'm not much a of technology guy... but was shocked how simple it is to use these files and data when reviewing a past hike.
With a short lesson I could easily create a tracking map from the comfort of a coffee shop or ideally a local bar.

Not your problem for karel specifically... but as we are always looking for a cleaner solution overall:
What is unique about your service that could prevent data manipulation?
Does the mapping software self-correct or 'smooth out' any errant pings?

As flawed as Spot is in terms of coverage... at the end of the day a non-tech person like myself can see the raw GPX track file get downloaded and supplied by Spot on their letterhead. So the raw data isn't filtered through any presentations or spreadsheets if one wants to review it. Though the time zone conversions remain as perplexing as Kilometers... at the end of the day individual pings can be cross referenced to other forms of documentation.

Does Legends Tracking store this data in it's original unaltered form for public view or do you only release it to the participant? (or only through mapping software)
Does having two trackers active present any challenges? Such as combining the data stream or comparing time stamps?

How does the time stamp work when upload is delayed? Does the device keep it's own time log?
This is an issue I have seen before when an athlete and the device disagree... sometimes the athlete is right actually.

We are interested in finding a solution to tracking issues.
Unfortunately each service promises a solution, but there is always some issue that arises that causes it to fall short. As a result; it can be handy to know what the limitations are.

For example- A conscientious Spot user could actually put together a very good GPS track if they turn off live tracking.
As Peter mentioned, selective use of the Spot can easily generate a good ping per hour in nearly any conditions if one works with the device itself.

I'm not implying anything other than sharing my experience and general knowledge.. T-Mobile is one of the better cell service providers in the southern Appalachian Trail area. There are several trail towns where ATT or Verizon work- but not both. T-mobile seems more willing to piggyback onto other networks and has success as a result. To be fair- Hot Springs North Carolina is a clear black hole for T-Mobile in particular.

Just pointing out that one of those 'tricks' if you are relying on that service is to spend a bit of time on a peak, overlook, or high point as while T-mobile won't be ticking along with solid service... a few minutes with on a high spot will let you get a call or even a data connection more easily than some others because T-mobile doesn't have dedicated towers they seem to do a better job using anything they can.

Overall- guess we will see how things play out.
Hard to blame the tracker when Scott leaves it in the van... or other attempts run out of batteries... or simply fails to turn it on.
Even when someone like Joey Camps does dry runs ahead of time... something can happen with a device and it simply fails to 'go off'.
And we do have to simply accept that while few things are in the middle of nowhere any more... you're still off the grid with enough depth that your tech won't work right.

So if there are ways to educate a user on how to best use your service those are always helpful.

Again thank for joining the conversation and for addressing your product.

[Just Bill]

A quick follow up thought-
Tracking manually with a spot improves it's use... mainly because in the dense canopy when the spot doesn't get a signal it gets 'confused'.
So instead of pinging every 5 or 10 minutes it spends an hour or more trying to send the first ping out before it resets itself and tries again.

If signal is good... all works.
If it misses a transmission... it tries to talk over itself basically as sending and receiving are on the same 'line'.

That's my average guy interpretation of it.

It sounds as if your device avoids this problem?
Basically you have a clear path to receive info and create points.... and a separate way to transmit (or store if needed)?

So tracking continues uninterrupted and so long as you don't exceed the onboard memory before it can upload you're good?

Is there a way to pair your device with a smartphone (to increase storage of the track)?
Or to perhaps send the GPX file via text message? It's not hard for a person to stop on a high point and glance at their phone.
I often use texting in this manner... type the texts up... phone stores them... when I get to a view and take a break I click on the failure to send messages and can visually verify that they go out when I know I have a signal.

Much of the issue with Spot or other devices is you're simply crossing your fingers and hoping they work.
Even the most conscientious user can have an issue with no verification.
Joey Camps and others defaulted to manually restarting the device several times a day simply to verify it was working as that initial start up ping tends to go through... especially if you cherry pick your location to send.

[Odd Man Out]

Thanks stefschuermans for the details on the tracking. I have a follow up a question, if you are still following this thread.

I was tracking Karel's progress and noticed that the distances he has been posting on his Facebook page don't quite match the 2018 distances provided by the ATC. I am completely fluent in the metric system so this isn't just a case of converting miiles to km. I assume the ATC data comes from GPS tracking. Are the distances posted coming from his tracker? If so, it would seem the two are giving slightly different numbers. Of course in the end it doesn't really matter since it is where you are (not the distance measurement) that's important. According to Karel's FBj posts, he has covered 332.5 km to get to Icewater Spring Shelter in four days but according to the ATC, that should be 338.6 km. Please note that I am NOT accusing Karel of skipping a few kilometers. I am just observing that his measurements are consistently 1.8% less than the ATC numbers.

[pbakwin]

Stef,

THANK YOU for clarifying about Karel's tracking. This is extremely helpful. Your device is not widely used in the USA, and in fact up to now I'd never heard of it. But, the technology makes a lot of sense for many trails where cell service is common. I'd be very interested to talk with you more about the use of your service for FKT purposes more generally. Your website is pretty thin on details about what you offer - no info about costs for the tracker or services. I'd love to learn more, so if you'd like to discuss please contact me at peter at fastestknowntime dot com.

One comment is that tracking something like the AT is about QUALITY not QUANTITY. You can have track points every minute going through a town or along a road section, but it's better to have occasional points far from roads. I've encouraged people (especially the self supported crowd) to only activate their SPOT trackers (if they must use SPOT!) when they are in open areas and well away from roads. This saves batteries and gives a better chance of good results. For every device you need to know how it works, what it's limitations are, etc. You wouldn't go into the wilderness with a camp stove you didn't know how to use, but somehow people often don't pay the same attention to their trackers. On the AT having a point every minute is pointless (no pun intended) - Karel will move maybe 100m in that time, and it will create much more backlog of points to be uploaded when cell service becomes available, as well as a greater possibility of losing data points if service is lacking for an extended period.

Thank you & best of luck to Karel in the coming weeks! Really fun to watch. And I agree with Bill that we should be talking about Belgian beer...
PB
fastestknowntime.com

[pbakwin]

This is what I have so far, with Karel's distances from https://www.summitpost.org/appalachian-trail-mileage-chart/593282 (so could be some inconsistencies with Stringbean's reported distances). Note that it appears he slept the night of 7/21 at a shelter away from the road. Corrections appreciated.



Day
Karel
Stringbean
ahead
Karel’s ending location
date


1
50.9
43.2
7.7
Unicoi Gap
07/18/18


2
103.9
86.3
17.6
Rock Gap
07/19/18


3

137.3


07/20/18


4
207.7
183.2
24.5
Icewater Spr Shelter
07/21/18


5
251.2
229.9
21.3
Max Patch Rd
07/22/18

[Just Bill]

This is what I have so far, with Karel's distances from https://www.summitpost.org/appalachian-trail-mileage-chart/593282 (so could be some inconsistencies with Stringbean's reported distances). Note that it appears he slept the night of 7/21 at a shelter away from the road. Corrections appreciated.



Day
Karel
Stringbean
ahead
Karel’s ending location
date


1
50.9
43.2
7.7
Unicoi Gap
07/18/18


2
103.9
86.3
17.6
Rock Gap
07/19/18


3

137.3


07/20/18


4
207.7
183.2
24.5
Icewater Spr Shelter
07/21/18


5
251.2
229.9
21.3
Max Patch Rd
07/22/18




137 is the always memorable and always visited NOC. Nantahala Outdoor Center
US19-Nantahala River, NC @ 136.5 per this years

http://www.atdist.com/
This is what I use as a double check for year to year updates.

Someone else could chime in perhaps but there was another site (created by a member here I think) that also allowed you to create an elevation profile for a given section. It was recently shared in the harvey thread?
That's probably easier to use as you have a quick map to scan rather than a list of places that mean nothing to you.

Icewater spring makes sense as that's only a 3 mile walk heading north from Newfound Gap (US441- the big parking lot that splits the ridge in the smokies).
So late day resupply and walking on (no overnight parking there I believe) would fit a supported hike as that's about your only access point. (or if you're a self supported young lady getting dropped off)

Stringbean struggled a little out of the gate if I recall off hand.
He did best mid trail... and silly fast up north.
(still like to hear that story but I digress)

Fifty a day down south isn't shocking (comparably/overall)- especially if Karel is willing to do a bit of a hybrid approach and isn't tying himself to road crossings as other supported hikes tend to.

I didn't look hard- but there was mention of a crew chief and a pacer.
If the pacer was willing to mule sleep gear for Karel (or his crew chief hustle it in) then a late day road meetup/dinner/therapy with a team push afterwards to round out his ' daily fifty' would be a solid tactic.

[chknfngrs]

Sound logic

[Tundracamper]

I’m a little perplexed why someone would undertake such a monumental effort without first testing the equipment to make sure it performs as expected.

[Just Bill]

I’m a little perplexed why someone would undertake such a monumental effort without first testing the equipment to make sure it performs as expected.
You’re not alone

[Odd Man Out]

137 is the always memorable and always visited NOC. Nantahala Outdoor Center
US19-Nantahala River, NC @ 136.5 per this years

http://www.atdist.com/
This is what I use as a double check for year to year updates.

Someone else could chime in perhaps but there was another site (created by a member here I think) that also allowed you to create an elevation profile for a given section. It was recently shared in the harvey thread?
That's probably easier to use as you have a quick map to scan rather than a list of places that mean nothing to you....

I think it was me who posted that link, which is here, but last I checked it said it was unavailable. https://bentwells.shinyapps.io/atdata/
That site report to use the 2018 data from the ATC. If you set the start as Springer, the end as Katahdin, get an output of the whole trail, then Copy and Paste into Excel, and you get a spreadsheet with all the mileage and elevation data for 1793 points along the trail. My tracking is pretty much the same as posted above, but my mileages are slightly different using these data. The StringBean locations are from what he posted on the FKT site. His mileages are are adjusted for the 2018 data. Karel's locations for days 1, 2, 4, and 5 can be confirmed as they were when his tracker was reporting. He ended day 3 in the middle of the long section where his tracker wasn't reporting. I am speculating he stopped at Yellow Creek Gap, as this is the only road crossing that is consistent with the mileage for that day he posted on his Facebook page. As you can see he has been very consistent to date.




Karel

StringBean




Day
Location
Day Miles
Location
Day Miles
Ahead of Pace


0
Springer Mtn/AT Southern Terminus

Springer Mtn/AT Southern Terminus




1
Unicoi Gap/GA Hwy 75
52.3
Low Gap Shelter
42.6
9.7


2
Rock Gap Shelter/USFS Rd 67
53.1
Standing Indian Shelter
43.1
19.7


3
Yellow Creek Gap/NC Rd 1242 ?

52.5

Nantahala, NC/US Hwy 19/74
50.8
21.4


4
Icewater Spring Shelter

52.5
Spence Field Shelter/Eagle Creek Trail
46.8
27.1


5
Lemon Gap/TN Hwy 107
49.7
Cosby Knob Shelter
47.4
29.4

[Violent Green]

Holy moly! Can people just use a normal, cheap everyday inReach device for tracking so we can all move on with our lives?? 2G cell service!?!? What is this, 2005???
Lol... Just poking at ya. Seems like a cool setup

[JPerry]

Question with regards to using an inreach. How would you go about setting it up so that there is a delay on your map? Is that possible on Garmins Mapshare or would you have to register it with a 3rd party to do that?

[chknfngrs]

If you follow only on instagram you’re not getting data but are getting proof of life at least. Uniformity would be nice to throw in mileage (or kilometerage) or wait according to JPDs article the local language “miles” should be used

[Just Bill]

I think it was me who posted that link, which is here, but last I checked it said it was unavailable. https://bentwells.shinyapps.io/atdata/


Yar, that's the one I was thinking of... too bad it is down. I looked at it briefly and figured it would be handy for something/somebody.
I'm used to reading AWOL's book on PDF so that's still my go to generally with ATDist if I need to run a quick point to point check.

This is the map I tend to use for GPX checks- http://tnlandforms.us/at/googleat.php?lat=37.05773&lon=-81.39933&mt=3&scale=11

I think Peter still likes CalTopo... and Matt flexes his google foo.

Handy having all you smart people with higher edumacation.

Chemists, Engineers, Physical Therapists.... if only we could get an Atmospheric Physicist to really get that solid overall global perspective to tie it all together.

[stefschuermans]

Hi everybody, Stef again, in this post, I’ll try to provide some more explanations on the questions that you guys had based on my previous post.

1. We have indeed the data from Joe’s FKT and the ones from Scott are publicly available (https://share.delorme.com/scottjurek) . In a couple days we will add those data to the tracking website. Given the sometimes very low density of location points for both athletes, it wouldn’t really make sense to put them already earlier, because it would only confuse the visualization on the map. Once Karel has done a decent part of the AT, the differences caused by not having enough location points will be less significant.

2. The tracker is powered by Li-Ion batteries, rechargeable by a standard mini-USB cable. With the current settings for Karel, the batteries will probably last around 3 days of running.

3. The tracker is IPX5 compliant, so not fully waterproof, but it is stored in a waterproof bag that we also use for Triathlon and SUP events.

4. The big question about possible data manipulations: the tracker sends its data messages to our server. These messages contain a password, obviously the location and time information, unique identifiers regarding the tracker and the simcard, MCC-MNC-LAC and CellId, which basically define the mobile provider and cell tower the message is sent from, and a hash for verification. If one would try to send false information, it probably can be done, but you would have to be a very good hacker. Just as it can be done to SPOT or Garmin by a good hacker. So the risk of getting data not coming from the tracker itself is virtually impossible.
Can we (Legends Tracking) change the data? Well, technically, of course we can since it is stored in a database which can be altered. Just as an employee of SPOT or Garmin could alter data. But he would probably be fired, and we would be out of business very fast.

5. Time stamps: we actually have 3 time stamps: (1) the time when the gps position was taken by the tracker, this is the LocationTime. (2) the time when the tracker tries to send the gps position to our server, this is the ReportTime. We can for example configure the tracker to take a position each minute (LocationTime) and only send all those positions to the server every 10 minutes (ReportTime). (3) the time when the location arrives on our server, this is the ReceivedTime. When there is no mobile network available, the ReportTime will be different from the ReceivedTime.

All times are in UTC, so there should be no reason for time stamp issues.

6. Data visualization: we show on the map the marker at the position of the last position that the tracker has sent us (Please note that ‘last’ means LocationTime, not ReportTime or ReceivedTime). When you click on the small map icon next to Karel’s name, we show ALL the points that the tracker has sent us. These data is not manipulated, time, latitude and longitude come directly and unaltered from the tracker. The mapping software does not self-correct or smooth out errant pings.

7. Using two trackers at the same time, which is not the aim, but could happen, should not give any issues. The only thing that we will see is that there will be 2 points per minute now. Of course, if his crew turns on one of the trackers while not being together with Karel, we might see strange points appearing …

8. In order to make things more convenient for you guys, and for anybody following Karel’s FKT attempt, we will include a button on the tracking site where you can download the full gpx including all location points coming from Karel’s trackers. There will be no delay or manipulation on this gpx.

9. There was a question on pairing the tracker with a smartphone, but I don’t see the point of it (It is not possible by the way). Bill explained how he uses his smartphone often to type a text, which is not sent, but then an a mountain top or something, he pushes to resend and then it works. This is actually a very good analogy for the working of the tracker, which tries to send its messages as soon as there is network available. Note that due to the minimal size of each message, and the use of 2G, the tracker often will get a connection and send messages even if your phone tells you that there is no connection at all.

10. On the distances covered, very interesting question actually. The KM markers are calculated automatically based on the provided gpx. With over 200 events each year, it would be impossible to try and do this manually (I wouldn’t see any benefit to it anyway). For Karel’s tracking site, we took the gpx files from https://www.gaiagps.com/datasummary/folder/dedfe4c3-dc0e-496e-b505-c47f14548a52/?layer=mapquestaerial, which seems to be the ‘official’ gpx files.

The distances are calculated using an Haversine function (the most complex but also most accurate method to calculate the distance between 2 points on a sphere) on each coordinate in the gpx file. If the quality of the gpx file is lower (read: less points), the distance will by definition be shorter than the actual distance on the ground. Especially on long routes, differences might become more significant.
So, bored you enough now with technical talk.

If you guys have good ideas or recommendations about what would make the tracking site even more interesting or useful, just let me know, and we can see if we can implement something.

[Just Bill]

Stef-
Thanks again! Sounds promising overall actually.

A roughly 60 gram unit correct?
More the merrier I suppose, but as Peter pointed out Quality of the track is desired over Quantity of pings.
Simple way to say it; if a device delivered 1 ping per hour, every hour, every time... that would be a HUGE improvement. If you can deliver that... then 2 per hour, 3 per hour, etc.
As Peter mentioned; at roughly 6.4 KM/HR (4 mph you filthy yanks)... we are not talking speeds that you might see in your other events (cycling, marathons, water sports). So the SPEED part of these FKT's is relatively low.
Even at 10 minute intervals you're talking a KM per ping.... which is way more detail than is required.
We aren't talking about an urban environment where someone could 'cheat' by ducking around the wrong street corner; for the most part there isn't a lot of opportunity to go off course, nor is there much advantage to doing so when in the middle of the woods. Even most 'shortcuts' one might take are several miles so with 3 pings per hour anyone cheating on a distance of more than a KM would get found out.
So with that in mind:
It sounds as if you're fairly confident in getting the GPS data from the satellites... which I think most who use GPS on the trail via smartphone or other devices agree on.
Sending that data back out is the bigger ongoing issue- a 20 minute interval means only 72 pings per day to store at 24 hours.
4 pings over 16 hours is easy enough too just in case one ping per hour fails.
Which seems like your device can easily store in the buffer.

Even in the worst possible scenario, with three days of battery (or more) and the capability to send a burst of 200 or so in a single shot... Karel's section through the Smokies could have been recorded and even if you never got a single signal on that whole 3 day stretch the device would blast the route out and catch up the data at the first cell tower it hit.

The section the device struggled in is Smoky Mountain National Park... a very large area with little cell tower coverage. So an issue is to be expected there. However your device did get a few transmissions out.
IF Karel was using a lower density interval we would have gotten a very solid and clean track out.

As it was... we got small sections of way too many tracks. And large sections of nothing. Bursts of quantity but no quality.
I have to imagine at this point... the buffer is clear and those sections that haven't 'caught up' are lost?
Not picking on your device... just trying to understand those limitations to improve the performance.


Point being- it appears that the device would function as a very solid tool for long distance hiking trails if set up for this type of event.

I assume you'd see a big boost in battery life too?
Even a self-supported athlete like Joe M is hitting a town or resupply stop every 3-4 days at this point. If the device could last 4 or 5 days, and store 80 pings per day for that duration.... sounds like you're talking about being able to clear all that buffer data easily during a resupply or meal stop with no problem. One could recharge in town and head on confidently to the next point.

That was supposed to be what the Spot Trace delivered... but sounds like your device actually does it.

With some tweaks- this may be a winner for these events.
Might even be worth advising Karel to 'turn it down' if possible.


As far as data manipulation:
I'm not saying your site (or Spot, or Garmin) would manipulate the data. Or even that an employee would.
More that a dishonest athlete or team could.
For self supported (solo) hikes it is in the athlete's interest to delay the track by a few days.
So per the latest and greatest effort- the data gets dumped into an excel sheet and displayed on a map to create the delay automatically.

Also, given sponsor requests and other changing realities... it's getting more common for us to get the data 'filtered' in some way.
Even with Karel... you are running the plug in I assume... but we are going to his sponsor's site to view the track.Others do the same thing... it's not that the GPS service would alter the data... but that the athlete would want to present the data on their platform of choice.
If we ONLY get the information from this filtered approach or custom map... that map can say anything they want it to say.
However if at the end we also get the raw data from the GPS service (third party)... then we know it wasn't manipulated.

It sounds as if this is not an issue on this hike.

We are just all looking for a good solution and keeping the data in the hands of a third party for final verification is in all our best interests.
Having reliable, independent mapping for sponsors to use (as skins is now) is likely something they would really appreciate as a $ponsor doesn't want to get tied up in any funny business.... which come to think of it I think Skins has already dealt with a high profile long distance disaster.


Your number 10:
Gaia feed may be the issue. They list 2097 miles total... trail distance is actually 2190.
Not exactly Odd Man Outs 1.8% variation but probably part of it.
I know the very basics of the distance problems, especially on a very rugged trail... but maybe a better file will get you closer.

Might even be a minor rounding issue between KM and miles... though as has been pointed out... "Its not about the kilometers, its about the smilometers."
Clearly proof that not everything works better in the metric system.

https://appalachiantrail.org/home/explore-the-trail/gis-data

That's the official I believe... others know better than I do.

What could improve the experience visually for hikers would be to add a layer of shelters. Hikers are used to 'viewing' the trail this way and they provide good reference points in sections where there are not named mountains or handy landmarks to cross reference.

http://tnlandforms.us/at/index.php

[Just Bill]

For what it's worth-
I recalled Karel using a different site/webpage on the PCT (and several Strava comments). :-?

Running back through Peter's old site I see that he did use this service- though it went to a site he set up for the event (similar to this one but not a plug in).
The Strava was backup it seems and not a serious source of critical tracking. (I thought he tried to do the whole thing)

I also see a Stef chiming in on that effort as well who I strongly suspect is the very same Stef we are talking to now.

A skeptical backwoods bastard I may be... but all seems to check out.
So just sharing my homework with the class... :rolleyes:

[Just Bill]

https://whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php/129657-AT-data-and-elevation-profiles-app

Original thread on that elevation profile tracker for those interested.

[Odd Man Out]

BTW, a lot of the tracking data seems to have been now been uploaded. There are still a few gaps, but not as many. It appears that his overnight stops shown above are confirmed. He got to Irwin by early PM. If he continues with his pattern of 50+ MPD, he should get to Iron Mtn Gap by this evening, putting him 37 miles ahead of Stringbean.

[matthew.d.kirk]

Question with regards to using an inreach. How would you go about setting it up so that there is a delay on your map? Is that possible on Garmins Mapshare or would you have to register it with a 3rd party to do that?
I’m not sure if InReach has that function. Trackleaders said it offers this option although I’ve yet to see it implemented with any of its users. It may be something that Stef and Legendstracking would want to offer, if they don't already. I know other users besides self-supported FKTers may be interested in delaying the posting of their waypoints on public maps.

As a DIY kind of guy, I did piece together a workaround, which involves pairing the email alert for check-in/movement feature offered by SPOT (and probably other tracking devices) with a (free) IFTTT applet: http://goo.gl/UQB1zL and then linking the output spreadsheet with mapalist.com. This linkage creates an intrinsic delay of several hours on the output mapalist map. With some spreadsheet formulas, you can further obscure the timestamp to show only elapsed time vs. date/time such as what we did with Joey's track last year. Yeah a bit of work, but not too bad. Here's the Joey example: https://mapalist.com/map/638124 And here is the mapalist feeder sheet (with formulas): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...yeE/edit#gid=0 (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HyBO-VDFj0QBsTmC5TUHCv50ArorS7Jvm6MHNRdEyeE/edit#gid=0)


In order to make things more convenient for you guys, and for anybody following Karel’s FKT attempt, we will include a button on the tracking site where you can download the full gpx including all location points coming from Karel’s trackers. There will be no delay or manipulation on this gpx.

Thank you, I noticed this download button and do appreciate the feature (especially when compared to fussing about trying to do the same with Jurek's InReach track). Question though: can you confirm that the timestamps are on this gpx download? I downloaded Karel's track this evening and did not see any timestamp data in the 29MB file. Speaking about file size, to reiterate Just Bill's and Peter's recommendation, I don't see the reason for such high signal frequency. I doubt even the pros over at Guinness World Records would even require it...?

[Odd Man Out]

There was much discussion in the last FKT thread about the relative merits of self-supported vs support speed hikes. To this point, Karel has been able to cover from 49.7 to 53.2 miles and still be able to meet his support team at a road crossing overnight. The only exception was when he went an extra 2 miles beyond the trail head to overnight at Icewater Springs Shelter, I'm assuming because staying overnight in the parking lot is not allowed in the National Park.

Today, Karel looks to finish the day in an area where there aren't many road crossings, between US19E (30.8 miles) and US 321 (64.1 miles). The roads in that stretch are small local roads or USFS roads. I don't know how accessible they are, especially with all the rain they have been having, and none would allow him to be at a road crossing after doing the miles he has done to date (51.5 +/- miles). So today he will either have to stop short, push a little further, or arrange for a support crew to meet him on the trail, and hope the roads are passible.

[SteelCut]

Those roads are accessible.

[One Half]

Can someone please post updates on the progress? Possibly compare his progress to the current FKT holder? I am having a problem with the map and would really love to know 1- how far he has gone and 2 - how far Joe had gone in the same time frame and 3 - if continuing at this pace, what is his projected completion time?

[Odd Man Out]

Can someone please post updates on the progress? Possibly compare his progress to the current FKT holder? I am having a problem with the map and would really love to know 1- how far he has gone and 2 - how far Joe had gone in the same time frame and 3 - if continuing at this pace, what is his projected completion time?

His start point for tomorrow is speculated based on his last post. I think it is too early to project a finish date. To beat the record he would have to finish by late afternoon on Sep 1.





Karel

StringBean




Enter Start Day
Day
Location
Day Miles
Location
Day Miles
Ahead of Pace


18-Jul
0
Springer Mtn/AT Southern Terminus

Springer Mtn/AT Southern Terminus




19-Jul
1
Unicoi Gap/GA Hwy 75
52.3
Low Gap Shelter
42.6
9.7


20-Jul
2
Rock Gap Shelter/USFS Rd 67
53.1
Standing Indian Shelter
43.1
19.7


21-Jul
3
Yellow Creek Gap/NC Rd 1242
52.5
Nantahala, NC/US Hwy 19/74
50.8
21.4


22-Jul
4
Icewater Spring Shelter
52.5
Spence Field Shelter/Eagle Creek Trail
46.8
27.1


23-Jul
5
Lemon Gap/TN Hwy 107
49.7
Cosby Knob Shelter
47.4
29.4


24-Jul
6
Devil Fork Gap/NC Hwy 212/TN Hwy 352
50.7
Hot Springs, NC/NC Hwy 209
43.6
36.5


25-Jul
7
Iron Mountain Gap/NC Hwy 226/TN Hwy 107
53.2
Bald Mtn Shelter
52.7
37.0


26-Jul
8
?Dennis Cove Rd/USFS Rd 50

55.5
Roan High Knob Shelter
51.5
41.0

[pbakwin]

If he stopped at USFS 50 tonight (as above) he's I think 43 miles ahead after 8 days. But, that doesn't mean all that much. Stringbean was good in the first half, but killed it in the second half, which also has sections of harder, more technical trail (Rocksylvania, White Mtns, etc.) Harvey Lewis was around 15 miles ahead after 10 days, but then struggled and quickly fell behind. But, obviously if Karel continued to gain 3/4 of a day per week on Stringbean he'd finish 4-5 days ahead of the record. He's been super consistent so far. Fun to watch, especially now that the tracking seems to be working better!

[Slo-go'en]

He better hope it stops raining in the north east soon.

[LittleRock]

Looks like he's headed into Damascus today...

[Just Bill]

He better hope it stops raining in the north east soon.
Might be too late already...
At this pace he's 10-11 days away from stretches of trail currently underwater in Penn.

How bad is vermont? I didn't see how much of the storms are tracking into the northern states.
I heard wet spring, but then dried up springs in some spots... so hard to say if that will dry up or not. It's really only 20 days out if all goes as planned for Karel.

Not saying it would be impassible by any means... but it would be very rough on a fella trying to safely and consistently run 50's.
Overall- the nice steady pace is nice- but as he clears Damascus and southern VA I'd hope to see several days at or near 60 despite his 'lead' at the moment.
He's less than a week away from reaching that zone from central VA to roughly the midpoint where bigger days happen and if too wet he will likely lose that chance to bank miles before he hits Maine Junction.

[chknfngrs]

Might be too late already...
At this pace he's 10-11 days away from stretches of trail currently underwater in Penn.

How bad is vermont? I didn't see how much of the storms are tracking into the northern states.
I heard wet spring, but then dried up springs in some spots... so hard to say if that will dry up or not. It's really only 20 days out if all goes as planned for Karel.

Not saying it would be impassible by any means... but it would be very rough on a fella trying to safely and consistently run 50's.
Overall- the nice steady pace is nice- but as he clears Damascus and southern VA I'd hope to see several days at or near 60 despite his 'lead' at the moment.
He's less than a week away from reaching that zone from central VA to roughly the midpoint where bigger days happen and if too wet he will likely lose that chance to bank miles before he hits Maine Junction.

Yikes that’s a little nerve wracking to consider

[Slo-go'en]

Might be too late already...
At this pace he's 10-11 days away from stretches of trail currently underwater in Penn.

How bad is vermont? I didn't see how much of the storms are tracking into the northern states.

Most of the rain has been in PA and NY, but Vermont has been getting it's fair share. I suspect Vermud will not disappoint.

Northern NH has missed much of the rain, but we've been getting bands of it the last few days as the Bermuda high slowly moves farther out to sea and pulls the rain east. Looks like the weekend won't be too bad, but later in the week we'll have another 3-4 days of rain.

Currently, the ground is soaking up the rain like a sponge so the trails aren't impacted too much yet. The main issue is if it's actively raining, that slows you down a lot.

[Math Teacher]

The weather has been extremely dry in the Northeast this spring and summer until this week. Harvey Lewis had practically bone dry conditions through Vermont, NH, and Maine, but appeared to me to be very cautious on the rough ground. He clearly is more confident on smooth trails in the middle of the country and in the West. I was hoping for some high stream crossings, mud, slippery roots and rocks, etc. to make things interesting. What is it with ultrarunners and Mother Nature? Jurek wouldn't even of had the record if not for a splendid stretch of weather in NH and Maine. We'll see how this turns out with Karel, but he has the credentials and a small, but effective support team. With decent weather, he should be able to gain some miles on Stringbean in the Whites since the Bean was pretty beat up at that point and had several low mileage days even for that terrain. Either way this turns out, Ryan will still have the unsupported record which is a time that is remarkable beyond words.

[Just Bill]

Most of the rain has been in PA and NY, but Vermont has been getting it's fair share. I suspect Vermud will not disappoint.

Northern NH has missed much of the rain, but we've been getting bands of it the last few days as the Bermuda high slowly moves farther out to sea and pulls the rain east. Looks like the weekend won't be too bad, but later in the week we'll have another 3-4 days of rain.

Currently, the ground is soaking up the rain like a sponge so the trails aren't impacted too much yet. The main issue is if it's actively raining, that slows you down a lot.

That's good to hear... Things are pretty stable in my area this year, but I keep hearing from those on the east coast about this season being pretty wild... mainly Harpers up to VT though it seems at the moment.

I love hiking in the rain down south... except for those clay slicks hidden under some leaves.

That once a week rain up north won't kill it if it's dried out but if it gets saturated up there... Joey's first NOBO trip comes to mind but that was earlier in the season too before the Northwoods had a chance to fully dry out. Plus Joey brought a hurricane in his pocket which was a dumb choice on his part.

Course a bit of heat to dry out the middle of the trail after this would make for a BRUTAL sauna.

I'd say I feel bad for this year's NOBO hikers... but having said that for a few seasons in a row now this is the new normal and a 'good' year will be something we old washed up desk jockey cyber hikers wistfully discuss here at WB while others hike on blissfully unaware of the good old days.

[Math Teacher]

A new supported record by Karel would set up perfectly for Stringbean to get a strong support team next year and strive to go sub-40 and take back one of the 2 records of his that Sabbe will have broken.

[matthew.d.kirk]

Rain or shine, unless Karel's a true mutant, the miles will eventually take their toll. Even the Stringbean, in lieu of other details, kept a log of his aches and pains (column J): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fapbSF6WyEOxp6jtpL7TPwjGcrNhACmmGwgYettbQX8/edit?usp=sharing

1/4 down, so far so good...

[DownYonder]

His start point for tomorrow is speculated based on his last post. I think it is too early to project a finish date. To beat the record he would have to finish by late afternoon on Sep 1.





Karel

StringBean




Enter Start Day
Day
Location
Day Miles
Location
Day Miles
Ahead of Pace


18-Jul
0
Springer Mtn/AT Southern Terminus

Springer Mtn/AT Southern Terminus




19-Jul
1
Unicoi Gap/GA Hwy 75
52.3
Low Gap Shelter
42.6
9.7


20-Jul
2
Rock Gap Shelter/USFS Rd 67
53.1
Standing Indian Shelter
43.1
19.7


21-Jul
3
Yellow Creek Gap/NC Rd 1242
52.5
Nantahala, NC/US Hwy 19/74
50.8
21.4


22-Jul
4
Icewater Spring Shelter
52.5
Spence Field Shelter/Eagle Creek Trail
46.8
27.1


23-Jul
5
Lemon Gap/TN Hwy 107
49.7
Cosby Knob Shelter
47.4
29.4


24-Jul
6
Devil Fork Gap/NC Hwy 212/TN Hwy 352
50.7
Hot Springs, NC/NC Hwy 209
43.6
36.5


25-Jul
7
Iron Mountain Gap/NC Hwy 226/TN Hwy 107
53.2
Bald Mtn Shelter
52.7
37.0


26-Jul
8
?Dennis Cove Rd/USFS Rd 50

55.5
Roan High Knob Shelter
51.5
41.0



DANG!! :mad: My daughter and I were in Ground Hog shelter by 1:00 on the 23rd. That is 13 miles short of Lemon Gap where he spent that night. The shelter is .2 miles off the trail. Would have loved to see him fly by!!!

[Just Bill]

A new supported record by Karel would set up perfectly for Stringbean to get a strong support team next year and strive to go sub-40 and take back one of the 2 records of his that Sabbe will have broken.
Or Karel can carry his own pack and try to do it the right way :D

[chknfngrs]

I think a supported record is cool but it’s way more bada$$ to carry your own kit the whole way. Much harder and more challenging for sure!!

[Math Teacher]

I think a supported record is cool but it’s way more bada$$ to carry your own kit the whole way. Much harder and more challenging for sure!!

I agree wholeheartedly. The self-supported record is the monster record. Now the tracker is showing where Stringbean finished each day. It leaves an odd taste seeing a comparison of supported and self-supported times. It just happens that the FKT was self-supported. He's really going against Meltzer's supported time since the self-supported mark could withstand challenges (few and far between) for years to come. Concerning the PCT supported record and fire reroutes and an asterisk, etc., Stringbean also had some reroutes that he followed. The big key was that he hiked last and he knew the mark he had to beat. The amazing thing was by how many days Joe had lowered the record. It's very doubtful that Karel would have pushed himself as hard and taken 6 days off the 59 day time.

[TrailRunnerGuy]

He's really going against Meltzer's supported time since the self-supported mark could withstand challenges (few and far between) for years to come.

Technically Meltzer holds the supported record, but I don't think anyone, supported or unsupported, has any target other than Stringbean's time. Because, really, all Stringbean had to do a minute after finishing the unsupported trek was to ask someone for a candy bar and tap the sign again, and say, there, I've got the supported record time now too.

[pbakwin]

Well, *technically* everything Stringbean did is legal under supported rules, so he has both self supported & supported.

[pbakwin]

Karel's IG says they're going for 93km today, which I think would put him at VA615 near Bland? If he gets there tonight I calculate he'll be 52 miles ahead of Stringbean. Unfortunately tracking hasn't been good today.

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Tracker shows him about 3 miles south of Pearisburg at 437pm this afternoon, so about mile 633 on day 12, with a few hours of daylight left.

[DownYonder]

Karel's IG says they're going for 93km today, which I think would put him at VA615 near Bland? If he gets there tonight I calculate he'll be 52 miles ahead of Stringbean. Unfortunately tracking hasn't been good today.

I don't understand why anyone is comparing his efforts to Stringbean's. Karel is a phenomenal ultra-marathoner but the only thing that he has in common with what Stringbean did is that he is running the same course that Stringbean backpacked. The two efforts can not be compared. Self supported vs message at night, icing his legs, someone cooking his meals, fresh clothes, not having to resupply, etc, etc.

NOTE: I'm not trying to diminish the ultra-run that Karl is attempting but they are two totally different animals.

[pbakwin]

We’re comparing because Stringbean has the record. If Karel beats SB’s time then SB will still have the self-supported record.

[Odd Man Out]

Yesterday, Karel covered the exact same section on day 11 that Stringbean covered on day 12, putting him one day ahead. It was also his biggest mile day at 56.6 miles so he has a 56.6 mile lead. If he matches Stringbean today, he will make it to Craig Creek (51.8 miles). To keep his current cushion he would also need to go up and over Brush Mtn (past the Audie Murphy Memorial) to Trout Creek (59.1 miles). If he continues his consistent pace he will be going up and over Dragon's Tooth early tomorrow (that will slow him down) and then to McAfee Knob for his photo op, later tomorrow morning. Unfortunately it is supposed to cloudy with a thunderstorm there tomorrow AM. Not a good time to be posing on McAffee Knob. Stay safe Karel.

[chknfngrs]

I feel like I’m watching the World Cup all over again with our commentary.... “As it stands right now...” the announcers would say about the score, with lots of game left to play. He’s played his cards right to this point and has been a veritable automaton of sort, but Saabe (does he have a trail name yet? Why not call him The Real Muscles from Brussels) lots of trail left for things to go wrong.

[matthew.d.kirk]

Next week, Karel’s wife will be coming to the US as well, and she will bring 2 new trackers that also operate on UTSM (3G), which will drastically increase the ‘live’ coverage of Karel’s adventure, because then the tracker can use any mobile provider again.
It's been a week, so I suspect this happened. But the 'live' coverage hasn't noticeably increased. Just curious if the tech is still getting bogged down.


We’re comparing because Stringbean has the record.

Speaking of comparing, I downloaded Karel's gpx file again and noticed that the timestamp data is now there. For some reason, conversion software such as GPSBabel and GPSVisualizer cannot extract the timestamps, perhaps due to some formatting glitch in the file. I'm no pro at this stuff, so it could be user error ;)

Anyway, I was able to write some formulas in a spreadsheet and convert the file (after downsizing the massive data) to run an animated playback of the action thus far: http://www.animaps.com/pb/568540001/3830/karel_vs_stringbean.

This playback may offer a somewhat better comparison than the historical pins on the legends tracking map, which aren't moving in synchronicity with Karel's elapsed time. I've noticed Stringbean's pin has been stuck several hours behind elapsed time while poor Scott's is days behind now.

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Anyway, I was able to write some formulas in a spreadsheet and convert the file (after downsizing the massive data) to run an animated playback of the action thus far: http://www.animaps.com/pb/568540001/3830/karel_vs_stringbean.

This playback may offer a somewhat better comparison than the historical pins on the legends tracking map, which aren't moving in synchronicity with Karel's elapsed time. I've noticed Stringbean's pin has been stuck several hours behind elapsed time while poor Scott's is days behind now.

That is awesome! Really shows well how he is doing compared to Stringbean.

[TimDeVriendt]

It's been a week, so I suspect this happened. But the 'live' coverage hasn't noticeably increased. Just curious if the tech is still getting bogged down.



Speaking of comparing, I downloaded Karel's gpx file again and noticed that the timestamp data is now there. For some reason, conversion software such as GPSBabel and GPSVisualizer cannot extract the timestamps, perhaps due to some formatting glitch in the file. I'm no pro at this stuff, so it could be user error ;)

Anyway, I was able to write some formulas in a spreadsheet and convert the file (after downsizing the massive data) to run an animated playback of the action thus far: http://www.animaps.com/pb/568540001/3830/karel_vs_stringbean.

This playback may offer a somewhat better comparison than the historical pins on the legends tracking map, which aren't moving in synchronicity with Karel's elapsed time. I've noticed Stringbean's pin has been stuck several hours behind elapsed time while poor Scott's is days behind now.

Hi Matthew, this is Tim, I'm the colleague of Stef at Legends Tracking. As far as I know, Karel's wife is flying to the US tomorrow, so just a little more patience.

Regarding the gpx, the reason you have timestamps now and didn't have them before is because before you didn't download Karel's gpx, but just the whole route of the AT (Hence the 27MB file). When you downloaded that file last week, we didn't even add the link to download Karel's gpx. We will have a look at the timestamps, might be that the datetime format coming straight out of the database is not compatible with gpx standards.

The pins of Joe and Scott are moving based on the data that we have, and Scott is missing a couple days of data on his Garmin page (I read before that his tracker was not turned on for a couple days I think). Joe is indeed often a couple hours behind, but only because we don't have more points, that is also why we added the 'Elapsed time' at the top of the page, and in the popup when you click on Joe's marker, so that a comparison can be made.

[One Half]

That's cool! matthew.d.kirk!

[matthew.d.kirk]

That's cool! matthew.d.kirk!

Thanks! I'll try and keep it updated. Despite the apparent gpx file formatting issue, now with the spreadsheet worked out, it's a pretty easy task: copy/paste and delete 'redundiculous' waypoints. Even after copious trimming on my part, Karel's waypoint count already exceed's Stringbean's entire track.

[chknfngrs]

Thanks! I'll try and keep it updated. Despite the apparent gpx file formatting issue, now with the spreadsheet worked out, it's a pretty easy task: copy/paste and delete 'redundiculous' waypoints. Even after copious trimming on my part, Karel's waypoint count already exceed's Stringbean's entire track.

Better, more reliable equipment, no?! The force is strong with this one!

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Yesterday, Karel covered the exact same section on day 11 that Stringbean covered on day 12, putting him one day ahead. It was also his biggest mile day at 56.6 miles so he has a 56.6 mile lead. If he matches Stringbean today, he will make it to Craig Creek (51.8 miles). To keep his current cushion he would also need to go up and over Brush Mtn (past the Audie Murphy Memorial) to Trout Creek (59.1 miles). If he continues his consistent pace he will be going up and over Dragon's Tooth early tomorrow (that will slow him down) and then to McAfee Knob for his photo op, later tomorrow morning. Unfortunately it is supposed to cloudy with a thunderstorm there tomorrow AM. Not a good time to be posing on McAffee Knob. Stay safe Karel.
I saw the tracker showing him at Craig Creek at 451am this morning, so that's either where he stopped last night, or a little short of there and got an early start.

He's ~3 miles past Lambert Shelter at 130pm, which puts him 6-7 miles from the Daleville/220 crossing. That's ~34 miles in 8 hr 39 min so far today. Really good time since he has Dragon's Tooth early this morning, as you said.

I don't know if we'd hear how his legs are doing, but he seems to have made it past the point where Jurek and Lewis were slowed down with leg issues. Doesn't mean he's in the clear, but it's a good sign. Younger legs? He's 28?

[Math Teacher]

Karel could have some huge days coming up. He is starting to develop a lead whereby an "extremely" poor stretch of weather or debilitating injury would be the only things that derail a new record.

[Just Bill]

Matt-
Looks cool as always.



Technically Meltzer holds the supported record, but I don't think anyone, supported or unsupported, has any target other than Stringbean's time. Because, really, all Stringbean had to do a minute after finishing the unsupported trek was to ask someone for a candy bar and tap the sign again, and say, there, I've got the supported record time now too.

That would be pretty gangster.
Though not sure how well that would go over realistically.
Not that I could... but that's really only something an arsehole like me would do.


Karel could have some huge days coming up. He is starting to develop a lead whereby an "extremely" poor stretch of weather or debilitating injury would be the only things that derail a new record.

Joe started slow. Jurek tore a quad.
Joey tore a quad and bottomed out to a 10mi day... can't really think of one person off hand who didn't have a bad one.

Could Karel have a perfect trip?... he'd be the first.


Traditionally speaking... one should be about three days ahead if not more before Maine Junction if you're looking at a linear pace comparison NOBO.
Comparing directly to Joe... best time up north by a good bit I believe.

So yar... some big days before he leaves VA would be helpful no matter how you want to see it.

[Mr Strict]

I think they are two different events. like a sprint vs cross country. There are advantages to both supported and unsupported. if you don't have the right crew, the crew can be a liability. ex. if you are carrying only enough supply to get to the next crew stop and the crew is not there, it will affect time and moral etc. the synergy has to be right between crew and runner/hiker for 46 days straight (on AT). In theory, the supported FKT should be faster but not that much faster (Stringbean on the AT is messing with the theory) However, if Stringbean had the perfect crew, the current AT FKT would be 44 days.

[Slo-go'en]

Karel could have some huge days coming up. He is starting to develop a lead whereby an "extremely" poor stretch of weather or debilitating injury would be the only things that derail a new record.
Those are always the unknown variables in these attempts and very little can be done to control them.

He seems to be cooping with the heat and humidity. But he's about to hit Northern VA and
he has to run up and down some pretty big hills (and a lot of little ones) in the next few days. But after that, the SNP is like an interstate. And after that, well, the easy part is over with.

[TrailRunnerGuy]

I think he stopped at BRP MP 97.7 last night, if anyone is keeping a spreadsheet. 54-55 mile day. If the tracker is still working well like it is now I'll try to see him as he passes by me tomorrow.

[CalebJ]

Where are you located, TRG? I'd missed that we were in the same area until now.

[Odd Man Out]

I think he stopped at BRP MP 97.7 last night, if anyone is keeping a spreadsheet. 54-55 mile day. If the tracker is still working well like it is now I'll try to see him as he passes by me tomorrow.




Karel

StringBean




Day
Location
Day Miles
Location
Day Miles
Miles Ahead


0
Springer Mtn/AT Southern Terminus

Springer Mtn/AT Southern Terminus




1
Unicoi Gap/GA Hwy 75
52.3
Low Gap Shelter
42.6
9.7


2
Rock Gap Shelter/USFS Rd 67
53.1
Standing Indian Shelter
43.1
19.7


3
Yellow Creek Gap/NC Rd 1242
52.5
Nantahala, NC/US Hwy 19/74
50.8
21.4


4
Icewater Spring Shelter
52.5
Spence Field Shelter/Eagle Creek Trail
46.8
27.1


5
Lemon Gap/TN Hwy 107
49.7
Cosby Knob Shelter
47.4
29.4


6
Devil Fork Gap/NC Hwy 212/TN Hwy 352
50.7
Hot Springs, NC/NC Hwy 209
43.6
36.5


7
Iron Mountain Gap/NC Hwy 226/TN Hwy 107
53.2
Bald Mtn Shelter
52.7
37.0


8
Dennis Cove Rd/USFS Rd 50
55.5
Roan High Knob Shelter
51.5
41.0


9
Damascus, VA/US Hwy 58
52.0
Watauga Lake Shelter
51.5
41.5


10
Slab Town Rd/VA Rd 672
53.4
Saunders Shelter
49.6
45.3


11
Laurel Creek/VA Rd 615
59.4
Partnership Shelter/VA Hwy 16
53.9
50.8


12
Pearisburg, VA/VA Hwy 100
52.2
Jenkins Shelter/Hunting Camp Creek
46.4
56.6


13
Craig Creek/VA Rd 621
51.8
Pearisburg, VA/VA Hwy 100
56.6
51.8


14
Blackhorse Gap/USFS Rd 186/BRP 97.7
54.5
Craig Creek/VA Rd 621
51.8
54.5

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Where are you located, TRG? I'd missed that we were in the same area until now.

I'm at Wintergreen. I just replied to your post on Tim's FB page where you asked if he was going to try to catch up with him. Tim & I both followed along with Harvey for awhile.

[CalebJ]

Gotcha - I definitely hadn't put together that you were the same person.

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Either stopped at punchbowl shelter with a good hour of daylight left, or the tracker isn't getting signal there. If he's stopped, that's a 53-54 mile day. Big climbs on Cole Mountain, down the Priest, and up 3 Ridges tomorrow.

[chknfngrs]

Maybe he’ll stop in at Devils Backbone for a beer and free hat

[pbakwin]

I guess he'd stop at the highway, or maybe the FS road just beyond? May have lost cell signal as he was running down the hill.

[TrailRunnerGuy]

I guess he'd stop at the highway, or maybe the FS road just beyond? May have lost cell signal as he was running down the hill.

The pull-off at the parkway is tiny and right on the road, so it's not a good place to sleep. I think I recall losing cell service around there so I think the FS road is a good possibility, if they could find it. I thought they might even keep going toward the reservoir with some daylight. Anyway, he's over route 60 and over that big hill now. Rainy day, with some heavy rain probably this afternoon.

[Just Bill]

Did he win yet?

[Mr Strict]

Karel

StringBean




Day
Location
Day Miles
Location
Day Miles
Miles Ahead


0
Springer Mtn/AT Southern Terminus

Springer Mtn/AT Southern Terminus




1
Unicoi Gap/GA Hwy 75
52.3
Low Gap Shelter
42.6
9.7


2
Rock Gap Shelter/USFS Rd 67
53.1
Standing Indian Shelter
43.1
19.7


3
Yellow Creek Gap/NC Rd 1242
52.5
Nantahala, NC/US Hwy 19/74
50.8
21.4


4
Icewater Spring Shelter
52.5
Spence Field Shelter/Eagle Creek Trail
46.8
27.1


5
Lemon Gap/TN Hwy 107
49.7
Cosby Knob Shelter
47.4
29.4


6
Devil Fork Gap/NC Hwy 212/TN Hwy 352
50.7
Hot Springs, NC/NC Hwy 209
43.6
36.5


7
Iron Mountain Gap/NC Hwy 226/TN Hwy 107
53.2
Bald Mtn Shelter
52.7
37.0


8
Dennis Cove Rd/USFS Rd 50
55.5
Roan High Knob Shelter
51.5
41.0


9
Damascus, VA/US Hwy 58
52.0
Watauga Lake Shelter
51.5
41.5


10
Slab Town Rd/VA Rd 672
53.4
Saunders Shelter
49.6
45.3


11
Laurel Creek/VA Rd 615
59.4
Partnership Shelter/VA Hwy 16
53.9
50.8


12
Pearisburg, VA/VA Hwy 100
52.2
Jenkins Shelter/Hunting Camp Creek
46.4
56.6


13
Craig Creek/VA Rd 621
51.8
Pearisburg, VA/VA Hwy 100
56.6
51.8


14
Blackhorse Gap/USFS Rd 186/BRP 97.7
54.5
Craig Creek/VA Rd 621
51.8
54.5



thanks for the spreadsheet. 50 miles a day is on record pace but not ahead of it (stringbean had to do some magic in the north, including 112 miles without sleep at the end). fun to watch GL

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Did he win yet?

This morning's forecast was 80% chance of hard rain this afternoon, yet the sun is shining. So yeah, he's winning.

[matthew.d.kirk]

Did he win yet?

Not even half time yet😃

What's on queue for half time show??

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Not half time yet, but Karel is killing it! He stopped at Dripping Rock today, just after 630pm, which is mile 849. 52 or 53 mile day. He prefers early morning to later in the evening, plus it is starting to rain harder, plus they got a room at Wintergreen to relax in. And I suspect he doesn't want to overdo it one day, but instead have rest to do it well again the next day. He ran a lot of that mile, somewhat technical and a little uphill, no sign of a limp, and says he feels fine. I'm going to try to meet him in the morning to run a few miles at the start of the day. Then he will be out of my area and I will stop making so much noise here! And yes, they are getting a burger and maybe a beer from Devils Backbone, but his crew guy is picking it up.

[Mr Strict]

Not half time yet, but Karel is killing it! He stopped at Dripping Rock today, just after 630pm, which is mile 849. 52 or 53 mile day. He prefers early morning to later in the evening, plus it is starting to rain harder, plus they got a room at Wintergreen to relax in. And I suspect he doesn't want to overdo it one day, but instead have rest to do it well again the next day. He ran a lot of that mile, somewhat technical and a little uphill, no sign of a limp, and says he feels fine. I'm going to try to meet him in the morning to run a few miles at the start of the day. Then he will be out of my area and I will stop making so much noise here! And yes, they are getting a burger and maybe a beer from Devils Backbone, but his crew guy is picking it up.

I just realized that advantage, why "he prefers early morning". 4am here would be close to his normal 9am wakeup at home. all the others, even the ones living on the east coast, had to make sleep cycle adjustments. Thanks for the insight.

[Mr Strict]

Not half time yet, but Karel is killing it! He stopped at Dripping Rock today, just after 630pm, which is mile 849. 52 or 53 mile day. He prefers early morning to later in the evening, plus it is starting to rain harder, plus they got a room at Wintergreen to relax in. And I suspect he doesn't want to overdo it one day, but instead have rest to do it well again the next day. He ran a lot of that mile, somewhat technical and a little uphill, no sign of a limp, and says he feels fine. I'm going to try to meet him in the morning to run a few miles at the start of the day. Then he will be out of my area and I will stop making so much noise here! And yes, they are getting a burger and maybe a beer from Devils Backbone, but his crew guy is picking it up.

I just realized that advantage, why "he prefers early morning". 4am here would be close to his normal 9am wakeup at home. all the others, even the ones living on the east coast, had to make sleep cycle adjustments. Thanks for the insight.

[black chucks]

​
Not half time yet, but Karel is killing it! He stopped at Dripping Rock today, just after 630pm, which is mile 849. 52 or 53 mile day.
Killing it is correct. I was with him on that last section and I fell back, only running the easier parts, and I hit dripping rock at 6:53pm, way behind Karel. He never seemed tired and I think he did that last section at a faster pace than he was running most of the day. Also, comparing with Scott and Speedgoat both of whom I ran with in the same area, his morale is lots better in my opinion.
TRG, aren’t you the same person who brought a tank of water to Jurek’s van and sat on the back of my pickup as we waited for Scott? After we had kept him company from Maupin Field to Reids Gap? I did that part today with Karel, also went down Priest with him between about 12:30 and 1:30 today.
Fun, especially when he said he got stoked having someone come out to the trail (me) and it made him go faster. Enjoy running with Karel in the morning!

[TrailRunnerGuy]

​

TRG, aren’t you the same person who brought a tank of water to Jurek’s van and sat on the back of my pickup as we waited for Scott? After we had kept him company from Maupin Field to Reids Gap?

Yes, that's me. I just got back from the morning run, went from Dripping Rock at 4am and turned off at the side trail to Humpback parking. He dropped me on the climbs and after the last one it took me 2 miles to catch him on the downhill. He really looks strong. I know it'll get a lot rockier in New England but he handled this stuff with ease in the dark. He's within a mile of SNP now, about 730am.

[chknfngrs]

Yes, that's me. I just got back from the morning run, went from Dripping Rock at 4am and turned off at the side trail to Humpback parking. He dropped me on the climbs and after the last one it took me 2 miles to catch him on the downhill. He really looks strong. I know it'll get a lot rockier in New England but he handled this stuff with ease in the dark. He's within a mile of SNP now, about 730am.

Too cool! Bet that was a lot of fun!

[chknfngrs]

Side comment about sleep: what’s this dude doing for sleep? I know he was in a hotel recently but what do he and his crewdogs do?! Photos on instrgam show a car with a roof top box, do they have tents they deploy or do they sleep in and around the car? Meltzer and Jurek had vans. Does Saabe?

[LittleRock]

Based on current rate of progress my guess is he's shooting for Harper's Ferry by Sunday night. That would be a little over 1000 miles covered in 19 days - pretty darn impressive!!!

[Just Bill]

Not even half time yet

What's on queue for half time show??
Was working on one of yours and one of mine....

Maybe 2+2=5 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c6GO7c-zO6E

Or the globally minded Wanderlust- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJRiBDMfrTU

Or to cut things down maybe a bit of Thom; bjork combined-
Though 'I've seen it all' would be a poor choice, and while Nattura is more appropriate few of us speak Icelandic and Thom lends his voice as the wind- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z0ORpf3fILw

Since Warren has gotten involved maybe an old fella singing well about the pain of this type of journey could participate- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vt1Pwfnh5pc

Given Karel is from Belgium, their beers and hiking is addicting, and I only know one band from Belgium- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JT2SsWOCoEw
So I did book them for the opening act in exchange for some beer.


But since this is a competition mainly involving punching down personal demons to become the current G.O.A.T (Greatest Overall Appalachian Trail)...

I booked james to sing as the main act with the help of sponsorship money from Guinness and a generous donation from Secret Men's Unscented Antiperspirant.
Unplugged of course; but with plenty of support from the band and the crowd.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=POcxCvxq4FQ

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Side comment about sleep: what’s this dude doing for sleep? I know he was in a hotel recently but what do he and his crewdogs do?! Photos on instrgam show a car with a roof top box, do they have tents they deploy or do they sleep in and around the car? Meltzer and Jurek had vans. Does Saabe?

I really only spent about 10-15 minutes around the only support guy I saw, and I didn't ask. I spent about half the run trying to catch Karel, and he didn't seem too chatty while I was around. I figured maybe he wanted to concentrate on the trail in the dark so other than some intro chatting I just gave him some tips to make sure he stayed on the main trail around Humpback and at the I-64 crossing at Rockfish Gap.

Anyway, AFAIK they just have the SUV, and from a quick look inside it didn't look in any way set up to have room for sleeping. Last night they rented a place at Wintergreen (too bad, had I known I would've offered my house, but by the time I found out it was too late to cancel) and I read that they stayed at Angels Rest(?) hostel a couple days ago. They said the hot showers last night was really nice so I don't think they do anything like that often. It looks like they may have stayed in a shelter the night before based on the tracker, though that may have just been a signal issue. So maybe a lot of places under a roof, and I suspect they pitch tents other days. They don't seem to have an issue with staking out and driving away from trail. It helps that he can get the miles he wants and still end early. Jurek's wife said Scott liked to stay in the van at the trail head whenever possible to not lose time that could be spent running, eating or sleeping. Probably the same with Meltzer.

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Did he win yet?

Just curious, is there an issue with talking about Karel's run in a thread about Karel's run in a sub-forum about speed records?

[Just Bill]

Just curious, is there an issue with talking about Karel's run in a thread about Karel's run in a sub-forum about speed records?

Irony. :D

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Irony. :D

I guess I haven't been around long enough so I don't get it. Just checking to see if it's a passive aggressive way of saying there's too many posts about it, or we're getting ahead of ourselves.

I don't think anyone is saying he's got it wrapped up. But I will say, unless something pretty major happens, IMO he is going to lower the record by days, not hours. Or at least he won't be in a sleep deprived push at the end to get the record. I base this on first hand observation of how healthy and strong he looks, his disposition, how much he was actually running, how well he climbs, how well he handles rocky terrain, how he's eating while on the move, and that he's hitting this mileage without having to do 17-18 hour days, so he doesn't seem to be building up a sleep deficit. From what I saw his crew seems to be on the ball. Admittedly this was just 2 sightings for 3 hours total in a 12 hour window but Black Chucks reports a lot of the same, and so did a friend of mine that saw him later today. I know Stringbean finished strong, but he also had back to back sub 30 mile days in the 2nd to last week.

[chknfngrs]

Stringbean carried everything. Major difference to note.

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Stringbean carried everything. Major difference to note.

Of course. If Karel continues at this pace, Stringbean will still have the unsupported record, with great respect. Just like Matt had before him, only a little more because it is faster than all of the other supported treks. I lead hikes for the local nature foundation sometimes, and they like us to have a "theme" for the hike. Sometimes I take them out on the AT and talk about the trail, thru hikers, history, etc. I always mention the speed records, both supported and unsupported, male and female.

[Just Bill]

Yar... the main inside joke if you want to call it that;
This year... and maybe later in the season last year... would mark the first time we haven't wasted 60% of the thread simply describing what an FKT is to other hikers, and 30% of the thread fighting with other hikers who wanted to complain about the hikes despite this sub-forum of the site being dedicated to those of us who wish to discuss the very topic at hand.

Certainly won't take credit, but I do try to kindly chase such folks away.

However this does leave us with quite a bit of time on our hands and nothing to do as we enter the placid stage of the hike.

Everything should be on cruise control. It's the smooth section of the trail and baring a crash this is the boring part of the race where we just watch and wait for things to get interesting.

Here are two oldies, but I still think goodies...
https://1drv.ms/b/s!Apygyt54yYPwmil5J60YNvO1I5YF
https://1drv.ms/b/s!Apygyt54yYPwoAnog06wd_N37rWc

The first is a calculator I made based upon the numbers map man was kind enough to patiently crunch.
The second is an old (2014) graph but it still does show you the part you aren't getting if you'd like to have one to not get.

The calculator shows all kinds of stuff- but to keep it simple: The slowest part of the trail (whites) is the baseline. On average the part of the trail that Karel is really tearing it up is 164% faster/easier.

Joe- at roughly 48MPD divided by 1.64 would be 29.26 in the whites... so slightly below what the calculator predicted.
Karel- at let's call it 52MPD here in speedy town would be 31.7MPD if all goes perfectly well.

What the graph shows is a visual representation of the difficulty of the trail, along with several hikes overlaid on it from the past. You will see that Joe's "back to back 20's" are quite in keeping with where every hiker ever bottoms out.

What Karel has done well for a NOBO... is to do well on the first stretch to NOC.
If you look at Odd Man Out's post you will see that Karel jumped to a whopping 20 mile lead (roughly) right out of the gate.
Which makes sense as its a very good section strategically and historically to do well.

Other than that... simple steadiness and not having to resupply has expanded his lead.
While it's never been very well spelled out by Stringbean... not impossible to piece together his hike though I'd rather hear it from him.

But one can easily see his up and down swings of miles once he cleared hot springs in a basic pattern.
Something like x, x+2, x+3, x+5 then crashing back to x.

A runner might read that as pushes followed by fatigue. As inconsistency.
A backpacker reads that as a heavy pack (and belly) out of a resupply with a steady increase in speed as packweight drops before hitting town again.

That's not even giving much time to resupply but if you were to simply tell Karel that every three and a half days he must limit himself to a 12 hour day, you'd likely see a few dips in his ticking miles.

If one looked carefully you might even note a few spots where Stringbean faced a full pack and a rougher than average section of trail... where he would likely do worse than if he hit that same spot with a few gels and 12 ounces of water in his vest.

Yar... still some holes to exploit in Stringbean's spreadsheet.
But on the flipside he is from Boston and by most accounts didn't stroll lightly into the whites.

Jen did okay, but in pushing though the weather she got hit with a bout of hypothermia that followed her for a few hundred miles beyond that day. She might yet hold the overall if not for that... skinny ass ultra folks just ain't built fer that stuff ;)

Karel may not do as well as Joe... going from carrying little with a well oiled crew into a stretch of hills where meetups are few and further and safety gear and provisions carried increase. To an extent the self-supported hiker has a minor advantage in that they are used to carrying stuff. It's easy to make light of... but having watched a few SUL speed folks I know agonize over a single pound to maintain pace... might be just enough to grind the gears on this well oiled machine.

All good reasons why comparing Stringbean and Karel can be futile... but Stringbean selected his method of choice and so did Karel. No issue there- just makes a head to head analysis a bit more complex overall.

What I see-
The good jump off Joe might have gotten... but Joe started well enough.
Karel hit the shennies- running well, good crew, off trail in 12-14 hours and still steady in the low fifties.
All very good signs for sure and reasons to stay hopeful.
Weather has seemed to be good, if not exceptional.
His good luck piggy bank seems exceptionally full as well... but that's not any animosity just simply that everyone has something go wrong so odds are decent they will for him too.

But like I says... other than a massive wreck this is just watching the cars circle round the track for a few hundred miles or more for a bit. Until he hit's Maine junction we are just waiting for the real race to start.

But it's a good time fer all of us to goof around, get to say hi, and generally stand around the FKT water cooler. :D

[black chucks]

...Anyway, AFAIK they just have the SUV, and from a quick look inside it didn't look in any way set up to have room for sleeping...
Yep, no van, just a car.

Karel has his driver/physiotherapist back from his PCT run two years ago. They worked out the crewing and trail sleeping over 52 days on that trail, so this is old stuff for them.

The other crew person for this section runs 25 or more miles each day with Karel for company. He said he was very surprised how much uphill running is happening. The driver calculates trail speed to be 6km/hour (3.7 mph or about 16:15 minutes a mile) and Karel has arrived early and surprised him sometimes.

Meltzer, on the AT, said he was happy anytime his mile was under twenty minutes and I think his average was about 18:45. Karel and his crew are making this look easy so far. 28 days to go.

[Just Bill]

Of course. If Karel continues at this pace, Stringbean will still have the unsupported record, with great respect. Just like Matt had before him, only a little more because it is faster than all of the other supported treks. I lead hikes for the local nature foundation sometimes, and they like us to have a "theme" for the hike. Sometimes I take them out on the AT and talk about the trail, thru hikers, history, etc. I always mention the speed records, both supported and unsupported, male and female.
One last inside joke...
We like it when Team Backpacker beats Team Runner...

even though we are all on the same team.

One last insight joke...
Ward Leonard's hike was a myth, an Urban legend that sat for over two decades.
Going self supported under 60 days, imagining and proving it could be done... was pioneering.

Heather's hike was an attention getter, and Joey Camps is pretty special all around.

Stringbean will likely stay king of the trail fer some time fer many here regardless of what happens with Karel... much like there was something special about Jennifer Davis's effort despite excellent efforts by the gentleman that followed.

Unfortunately we are mainly bumping the bar an inch or two at a time to see who can clear it next... no less impressive... just harder to really stand out or get super fired up for.

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Points taken on both posts.


One last inside joke...
We like it when Team Backpacker beats Team Runner...

even though we are all on the same team.

I get that. I guess that's why I'd like to see a runner take it back, myself being a runner. It's a little embarrassing (for lack of a better word) to have your best trail runners (maybe a little long in the tooth, but not that much off their prime) go out there and get beaten by someone without support. If Karel edges him it doesn't change much, but at least a runner will be back on top overall.


Unfortunately we are mainly bumping the bar an inch or two at a time to see who can clear it next... no less impressive... just harder to really stand out or get super fired up for.
Maybe it'll get bumped a little more this time. On the Harvey Lewis thread there was some discussion that it would probably take a hybrid approach to significantly reduce the time. Karel really isn't doing anything different than what Meltzer and Jurek did, but so far he is well ahead. Maybe he's just had pretty ideal circumstances so far and that won't continue, or maybe he's just doing it better. That's one thing I find interesting here, that maybe it doesn't take a much different approach.

One interesting thing he told me yesterday is that he didn't follow Harvey's run because he had a plan, and didn't want to alter it at the last minute based on factors that may or may not apply to him. We did not discuss anything about what the plan actually is and how/if it might differ from others.

[illabelle]

What's the latest with the flooding in Pennsylvania? Seems like he'll be there early next week. All clear now?

[brew]

I don't know, y'all. I haven't followed as closely for Karel's attempt as for Harvey's. The tracker's not as "user friendly" and there's not as much fun stuff on Facebook, although I do like the cartoons. But the dude seems to be absolutely crushing it. In the words of the great Cal Naughton, Jr. "Frenchy can drive." I know he's Belgian, but whatever. He's from across the pond and he's hiking like a mofo.

Warren (Doyle) called me a week or two ago and had camped out (as he's known to do) at Sam's Gap for when Karel and crew were coming through. Warren really liked them. Said they were humble and friendly. He also brought up that when Jen did the women's record in 2008 and hiked "only" 38 miles a day, David Horton who was helping Warren and me crew Jen toward the end said "You're not hurting enough. You're making it look too easy." Warren said that's pretty much what Karel looked like to him. Which is freaking ridiculous to think about with him averaging 53 mpd or whatever he's been doing.

I think Karl (not Karel, which I've gotten a kick out of since Karl did the #WheresKarl thing and now we've just added an "e") said a few years ago somebody could get it in the 44s and it's definitely looking that way.

I haven't been following the weather too closely up north- flooding, heat waves, etc. But usually people have an injury by now (and the low that comes with it) and Karel's blown through that. Unless something freaky happens weather wise or he has a severe, non-overuse injury (broken ankle or something), he's looking really really good. Good on ya, Karel (and crew)! Keep it up.

[chknfngrs]

Yep I think his crew is doing just as much to make Karel with An E’s run look so effortless.

[black chucks]

...they were humble and friendly... ...You're making it look too easy... ...Good on ya, Karel (and crew)! Keep it up.

Amen to that.

They are modest. Karel was telling me about being on the PCT and he wasn't going to mention that he finished it in record time. When I told "Jo" the driver I appreciated how hard his job is, he said it seems easy to him. And Kristian the current "pacer" (actually he runs behind KS on trail) who had never run with KS before his first AT morning, said he got used to the job easily.

Humble and friendly and making it look easy.

Example: At the Tye River trailhead at 1:40pm Thursday, after a long morning with some big climbing earlier and long downpours (hungry, feet soaking wet and puddles everywhere), the crew car wasn't there yet and no cell signal. In front of him was 10.6 miles over the Three Ridges- a pretty big climb. I shared some food which he appreciated. But it didn't affect morale at all. Karel said if I hadn't been there he would have left a note for the crew and gone on, no worries, its all good, feeling fine, big smile.

27 days to go!

[Odd Man Out]

I've added a column to my spreadsheet to calculate Karel's lead over Stringbean. The spreadsheet has distance measurements for 1792 segments of the trail. For each of those, it calculates the time it took Stringbean to hike. For example, From Justus Mtn to Justus Creek it is 1.4 miles. Stringbean hiked this on a day he covered 42.6 miles. That means that segment took him 0.033 days to cover. Then at the end of each day, the spreadsheet adds up the time it took Stringbean to get from where he was at the end of that day to where Karel was at the end of that same day. Assuming Karel ended Day 17 at Hightop Gap, by this formula he is 1.68 days ahead of Stringbean and has matched or exceeded Stringbeans pace on all but one day.

43348

[chknfngrs]

Love the analysis that’s cool!

[Violent Green]

Go Karel! Looking good so far. Hoping for good health and weather.

[Mr Strict]

Well, *technically* everything Stringbean did is legal under supported rules, so he has both self supported & supported.

I think I agree with your assertion. UNSUPPORTED has a certain set of rules. SUPPORTED adds "that you can accept preplanned help" I dont think it means that you must accept that help.

[chknfngrs]

I ended up in Harper's Ferry yesterday and wishing I was there today to see KS cruise by. Wondering if he'll have enough time to stop in at ATC HQ for some public relations and into Battlefield Bakery (free refills for hikers) for some good grub. It's such a touristy spot I hope someone there recognizes him and gives him a high five!

[chknfngrs]

*I got a refill on my coffee the last time I hiked through and I believe chatted with the owner who offered me a refill. Not to say it's a place with free refills. Paid $7.99 for a draft beer, which is egregiously expensive but worth it because it's vacation, right?

[Scythe]

I ran with him from northern Shanedoah National Park to High Knob (due to time constraints). Overall he was running well, power hiking at a good pace, and eating and drinking with minimal stops.

His early morning approach (4am starts to accrue miles) is really smart since you get the mental lift of first light and finishing before dark. He's also snagging 8+ hrs of sleep. Overall he's looking extremely good with no foot or leg issues. He's taking all of Karls advice and applying it to his routine.

It's going to take something pretty serious to hamper his attempt since most already had physical problems by now

[chknfngrs]

Love reading these accounts of people running with him! Valuable

[pbakwin]

Looks like he crossed the 1000 mile mark!

[chknfngrs]

Can someone track him closely thru Maryland? Is it possible he could set an FKT across that state while going after the overall? That’s be cool to see.

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Can someone track him closely thru Maryland? Is it possible he could set an FKT across that state while going after the overall? That’s be cool to see.

Won't happen. He's not going that fast. I don't know what the Maryland record is, but the 4 state (VA, WV, MD, PA) 41 mile record is 6:39. I doubt Karel is going to do faster than 4mph, which would take 10 hours. It would be foolish to try.

[chknfngrs]

Gotcha. Didn’t think it was that low. He is absolutely hauling already today.

[brew]

I ran with him from northern Shanedoah National Park to High Knob (due to time constraints). Overall he was running well, power hiking at a good pace, and eating and drinking with minimal stops.


His early morning approach (4am starts to accrue miles) is really smart since you get the mental lift of first light and finishing before dark. He's also snagging 8+ hrs of sleep. Overall he's looking extremely good with no foot or leg issues. He's taking all of Karls advice and applying it to his routine.

It's going to take something pretty serious to hamper his attempt since most already had physical problems by now

I agree. Jen would start at 4:52 every morning, no matter what. She didn't go as fast as it sounds like Karel is going so she didn't get as much sleep (usually 6-6.5 hours), but dawn was definitely a boost, as was getting in a big chunk of miles before noon. If things go south you still have a lot of time in the afternoon/evening to make up ground and get to a road. And worst case if you're getting near an exposed ridge and don't want to cross in a storm you can wait it out an hour or two and take a nap without disrupting your sleep routine as much. An early start is key to setting yourself up for success on a daily basis. Too bad I don't heed my own advice at home. :)

[matthew.d.kirk]

Wow, he really opened up a lead in N VA http://www.animaps.com/pb/568540001/3830/karel_vs_stringbean

He should cross halfway at ~21d12h. Before LL Cool J comes on, I'll offer my halftime prediction: barring disaster, he'll match that time on the second half. Despite the expected slowdown in NH/ME, which is par for the course, Karel has several more days to bank some miles.

[matthew.d.kirk]

He should cross halfway at ~21d12h.

Bad math, sorry. I meant 20d10h. I'll keep the prediction, as inconceivable as it seems :)

[chknfngrs]

Tracking via his website seems locked as of 9:47am today

https://www.skins.net/usa/appalachian

Is that normal for him to break for 2 hours? Or is the tracking not so live?

[Odd Man Out]

Tracking via his website seems locked as of 9:47am today

https://www.skins.net/usa/appalachian

Is that normal for him to break for 2 hours? Or is the tracking not so live?

I don't think he takes a break. There was a post a few pages back about his tech. It relays data via a cell phone connection so if he's in a phone dead spot, the tracking isn't live. When he gets a phone connection again, it will update some of the missing data which is stored in the device. If you check again, you will see he kept moving and there have been more recent updates. He is now almost to Lambs Knoll (33.7 miles so far today)

[chknfngrs]

Where’d he start today? Thanks for the clarification

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Pretty sure he started at VA-7, Snickers Gap, just after the Rollercoaster section. I have no idea what time, but I assume 4am-ish because he ended at 6:15 yesterday.

[chknfngrs]

So wolfsville rd/md 17 for today would be 52ish

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Stringbean did 58.5 on day 22 which was pretty much this section. I don't know if Karel is looking at low 50s every day or will look to go longer on an "easier" day like this.

[Scythe]

I don't think he takes a break. There was a post a few pages back about his tech. It relays data via a cell phone connection so if he's in a phone dead spot, the tracking isn't live. When he gets a phone connection again, it will update some of the missing data which is stored in the device. If you check again, you will see he kept moving and there have been more recent updates. He is now almost to Lambs Knoll (33.7 miles so far today)

When he meets up with the crew, he does a quick gear triage and then off he goes. Our pit stop was 5 minutes max, and part of that was gearing up one of his crew members to pace along. He had second breakfast (a couple of McDonald's breakfast sandwiches) and was eating while hiking the uphills. He saves the sitting and relaxing for the evenings it seems.

His intent is to keep with 50+ mi days, but said he had planned for some easier days as the terrain changes. He was also happy about his lead time which allowed him to take a break should weather/terrain/injury come about but he hasn't had a need to take one yet. His early morning starts allows him to rack up around 15mi near sunrise, which he takes at more of a "warm up" pace before speeding up. Just based on his attitude, pacing, and how dialed in his crew is I think he has a really strong chance to best the current record.

[chknfngrs]

So last night it looks as if he camped at Warner Springs Hollow in MD, which I don’t think you’re supposed to do. Is that considered an opportunity cost? Or similar to the Jurek Katahdin Drama?

[TrailRunnerGuy]

So last night it looks as if he camped at Warner Springs Hollow in MD, which I don’t think you’re supposed to do. Is that considered an opportunity cost? Or similar to the Jurek Katahdin Drama?
I don't know anything about that road crossing, whether camping is allowed or not, but unless you have a picture or witness, don't assume they even camped there. I know they've driven off the trail at least twice to stay elsewhere. Don't make up drama.

[chknfngrs]

Not making it up.

https://www.instagram.com/karelsabbe/?hl=en

[chknfngrs]

And I’m only talking about it so I understand the “rules” of it all. Shouldn’t detract from this at all.

[colorado_rob]

And I’m only talking about it so I understand the “rules” of it all. Shouldn’t detract from this at all. But it will (detract from the main point). Sigh.....

[chknfngrs]

Ok ignore it then. I don’t care where he slept. Is he crushing the Appalachian Trail right now? The answer is most definitely yes.

[pbakwin]

As far as FastestKnownTime.com is concerned, we don't judge whether a person obeys all laws / rules while doing the FKT. That's beyond the scope of what we do, or are able to keep track of. Scott did the AT, and he (or his team) broke some rules in Baxter State Park. The latter does not invalidate the former. Whether or not the trail (AT) community thinks breaking rules is "bad form" is another matter. I think it's clear that the Baxter kerfuffle DID detract / distract from Scott's achievement, but it's also clear that it did not invalidate the achievement.

[chknfngrs]

As far as FastestKnownTime.com is concerned, we don't judge whether a person obeys all laws / rules while doing the FKT. That's beyond the scope of what we do, or are able to keep track of. Scott did the AT, and he (or his team) broke some rules in Baxter State Park. The latter does not invalidate the former. Whether or not the trail (AT) community thinks breaking rules is "bad form" is another matter. I think it's clear that the Baxter kerfuffle DID detract / distract from Scott's achievement, but it's also clear that it did not invalidate the achievement.

Yes, thanks for clarification

[colorado_rob]

Yep, thanks Peter.

[Math Teacher]

If Sabbe goes 43.8 days or less, he will be the first record holder to break the 50 miles per day barrier on the AT. He was the first on the PCT. Stringbean's time was about 2 hours too long to accomplish that on the PCT.

[Captain Blue]

So last night it looks as if he camped at Warner Springs Hollow in MD, which I don’t think you’re supposed to do.

Let it go, please!

[chknfngrs]

Let it go, please!

Gone like the wind!

[Just Bill]

Points taken on both posts.


I get that. I guess that's why I'd like to see a runner take it back, myself being a runner. It's a little embarrassing (for lack of a better word) to have your best trail runners (maybe a little long in the tooth, but not that much off their prime) go out there and get beaten by someone without support. If Karel edges him it doesn't change much, but at least a runner will be back on top overall.

Maybe it'll get bumped a little more this time. On the Harvey Lewis thread there was some discussion that it would probably take a hybrid approach to significantly reduce the time. Karel really isn't doing anything different than what Meltzer and Jurek did, but so far he is well ahead. Maybe he's just had pretty ideal circumstances so far and that won't continue, or maybe he's just doing it better. That's one thing I find interesting here, that maybe it doesn't take a much different approach.

One interesting thing he told me yesterday is that he didn't follow Harvey's run because he had a plan, and didn't want to alter it at the last minute based on factors that may or may not apply to him. We did not discuss anything about what the plan actually is and how/if it might differ from others.

Every good sport needs a little rivalry ;)
Though the nice thing about this is we can all cheer along for individuals testing human limits.

I would expect him (or anyone giving this an honest shot) to follow his own plan for sure. I'm still reminded of Brett Maune's JMT run. Much like Matt Kirk he asked a better question than how do I race the last guy's split sheet.

The question to ask is 'What's the best I can do?'

If anything, this reminds me more of Brew and Jen's effort and style than any others.
In that respect he's doing several things differently than Karl, Scott, or Harvey.
They seem very comfortable with each other, and have a previous attempt together under their vest.
They are rolling along out of a car, sleeping right on the trail as often as possible, and do not seem to be adverse to walking away from the road to set up when that is to their advantage.

While the connection is fresh for the Belgians... whatever you think of Doyle; he's a handy friend to have.

Though the hot tub and brewery visits seem to be a bit lacking, and I don't believe any rounds of put-put have been played.

Karel seems to have adopted the 'joe(y)' strategy of committing fully to running when possible. Really though that's not a huge change to Jen's style of consistent, steady output... it does get you off trail a bit faster mixing in a bit of running where it makes sense.

It was a bit mind blowing watching either Joe rip off 'a quick 50' but the advantage is clear and getting the extra few hours of recovery time was worth it. It seems to be working for Karel as well.

If nothing else it's clear that we are crossing the threshold where 20 minute miles for 16 hours a day isn't quite going to do the job at the current mark. In some sense you could say it's circling back to 'run' mentality... but instead of hopping in the van and heading to the hotel room that time is invested in staying on the trail a few more hours and/or focusing on recovery and maintenance.

So other than who's carrying the crap... it looks like team camping runner or running backpacker is turning into more or less the same thing as far as covering the miles themselves.

[Just Bill]

Wow, he really opened up a lead in N VA http://www.animaps.com/pb/568540001/3830/karel_vs_stringbean

He should cross halfway at ~21d12h. Before LL Cool J comes on, I'll offer my halftime prediction: barring disaster, he'll match that time on the second half. Despite the expected slowdown in NH/ME, which is par for the course, Karel has several more days to bank some miles.

Poor Sinkalip...


"Frenchy can drive."

Dog Will Hunt!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBQ2305fLeA


Happy halfway to Karel!
So long as he don't drop the nacho's or hit a telephone pole things are looking good.

[chknfngrs]

Great song choice Justy B!

[Just Bill]

Great song choice Justy B!

Not many know my underground DJ name...

[Math Teacher]

Karel has made Rocksylvania look easy so far, and he's had bouts of rain. He should reach New Jersey by noon tomorrow.

[chknfngrs]

He’s definitely made the entire southern half look easy. Even without a full kit on his back what he is doing is amazing!

[TimDeVriendt]

Karel has now the improved tracker (working on all US mobile networks). Took a little longer than foreseen because of a sudden death in the family last week.

[TrailRunnerGuy]

At 3:25 this afternoon, day 24, he's a couple miles from a road crossing. If he continues on, which seems likely since he'd "only" be at about 46 for the day, the next logical stopping point would be the Leroy A. Smith shelter, where Stringbean stopped at the end of day 26--so potentially a 2 day difference. That would be a 58 mile day, so maybe he'll just camp on the trail before then. Another 2.6 miles beyond that would be another road crossing, but does he want a 60 mile day?

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Ah, there's another road crossing it looks like he's stopped at, about 3.5 miles short of that shelter. ~53 miles today, where Stringbean covered 50. I think yesterday was ~48 where Stringbean covered 51.9.

[One Half]

2 days since any update here

[matthew.d.kirk]

2 days since any update here

Karel's in NY. Still rocking. Tracker's working better: https://karelsabbeat.legendstracking.com/

Not much of a nail-biter. If it's quiet, some fans may already be exiting the stadium to beat the traffic.

Just Bill didn't even stick around for his whole half time show...:D

[Slo-go'en]

We're just waiting to see what happens when he gets to NH and ME.

[pbakwin]

Karel has quite a cushion - about 103 miles after 26 days. We put a special page on FastestKnownTime.com (http://fastestknowntime.com) to bring together info and track his progress in the back stretch of this thing. I took the liberty of using some excellent quotes from you all to lend some color to the material! LMK if you're not OK with that.

Just over 800 miles to go! He puts in 50+ miles virtually every day. 40 days???!!!

[chknfngrs]

2 days since any update here

I think you are referring to his Instagram account, and not what Captain Kirk provided, the ever so important tracking.

[Just Bill]

Karel's in NY. Still rocking. Tracker's working better: https://karelsabbeat.legendstracking.com/

Not much of a nail-biter. If it's quiet, some fans may already be exiting the stadium to beat the traffic.
Just Bill didn't even stick around for his whole half time show...:D
Got the new stadium wrapped up last week and kicked off the opening games this weekend. Got a few quilts out, three prototypes I was itching to try, and started a batch of bridges.
New Sewing Shop (https://1drv.ms/f/s!Apygyt54yYPwg8FHld9o05_0QyGG_Q)
On a side note- as Karel approaches... the first commercial bridge hammock released on the market was from Jack's R Better and named for the Bear Mountain Bridge.
http://www.jacksrbetter.com/shop/bear-mountain-bridge-hammock/

We're just waiting to see what happens when he gets to NH and ME.


Karel has quite a cushion - about 103 miles after 26 days. We put a special page on FastestKnownTime.com (http://fastestknowntime.com) to bring together info and track his progress in the back stretch of this thing. I took the liberty of using some excellent quotes from you all to lend some color to the material! LMK if you're not OK with that.

Just over 800 miles to go! He puts in 50+ miles virtually every day. 40 days???!!!

Special page (and the new site as a whole) looking good... but yar it's a nice time to hit the head and grab beers before the final quarter.
Few days yet until Vermont border and a day or so beyond that to Maine Junction (Killington).

Of minor interest and historical perspective: Hitting the Bear Mountain Bridge area.
Stringbean was 18-24 hours behind Jurek's record at this spot... just to get an idea of how quickly he was moving.
Jurek ran out of gas the last day or two... but while dramatic at the time he still covered the miles overall pretty well on the north end.

And for those of us who know the section southbound... Joey Camps blew his quad out just north of Pawling.
He ordered some trekking poles and picked them up at the landscaping store.
Then he did the down to the bridge and the up into Harriman...can't imagine doing that particular stretch the day after tearing my quad.

Karel's fast start probably covers 30 miles and problem free consistency built from there.
Fully agree it's looking good but Joe was FAST up north.

I think the easiest way to think of it is to compare it to the Long Trail- twice.
Looking at that handy dandy website- https://fastestknowntime.com/route/long-trail-vt

Basham ripped though at 60 MPD fully supported... a time that's held nearly a decade now.
(Also worth noting this fella ripped off a Colorado Trail FKT of roughly 60MPD in 2006)
Travis nearly pulled 41 MPD unsupported eight years ago.

So call that the upper limits. But given that's an all out effort of 4.5 and 6.7 days respectively:
Adjust from there as you see fit to cover the 1500 miles that precedes that... and consider you have turn around and do the Long Trail twice.
So 40 ish seems to me a very respectable average time up north as an upper limit.

It's a pretty close comparison. The Long trail has sections that are perhaps harder than the AT... but it also has the southern 100 ish that overlaps the AT that is mildly easy.
Katahdin discounted... the first 60 ish miles of the AT are pretty easy (if dry enough) and there is a stretch or two of easy stuff in there as well.
So on average... two Long Trails (yo-yo) is roughly even in terms of difficulty mix compared to the final 500-600 or so of the AT.

You could probably toss in a presi traverse FKT or something to look at if you wanted to drill down a specific stretch or expand the discussion... but to me boiling down the North AT to a back to back LT (especially NOBO) seems about right. Plus doing a one off 24 ish hour effort is vastly different so it's not much of a valid comparison for me.

I'm not neigh saying like a broken down donkey... but it still seems close to me overall.

Here's a pretty decent hike... one Karel basically looks to be on.
35 days at a 51MPD average= 1785
10 days at a 40MPD average= 400
For a 45 day 2185 FKT (mix and match the last 15 days as you like)

Going NOBO- here's what a 40 day should look like roughly.


52
10
520


57
10
570


65
10
650


42
10
420


.MPD
day
2160




You'd need a crazy day or two... Georgia in a day ala Meltzer. Or a big push in the middle ala Matt's 100 mile Shennies... and maybe one more 60+ and crawl up Katahdin.
I don't think it's impossible... though SOBO is likely the way it will need to be done.

That's the reason overall I was looking for more 60's to pop up for Karel before I got too excited about.
I'm more inclined to believe that this will be more of a Jurek Vs Jen squeezer than a Stringbean vs Melzer shocker.


Anywho... we got a few days. Speculating is fun.
Fer being Belgian Karel is running like a swiss watch.

Finally -condolences to Karel and his family.
Courage and Peace to him.

[matthew.d.kirk]

Agreed that 40 days is unlikely. Matching his split for the southern half also seems out of reach without him sneaking in a couple 100+k days before things get gnarly. But why mess with success? The swiss watch can keep ticking off 50s for as long as the trail allows and still nab the record by a couple days. Good luck to Karel for a strong finish!

[pbakwin]

Yeah, sorry, my 40 day number was a brain fart in the math department. If he kept up 50s for the last 800 that would be 42 days. I'm going to throw out a prediction of 42.75 days! vs. Joe's 45.5. Only because predictions are fun.

[chknfngrs]

Good clean fun right there... I’m calling 42days 12 hours 30 minutes

[TrailRunnerGuy]

At this point it's almost a matter of how much he wants to break the record by, assuming no major issues and he handles the rocks reasonably well.

I don't think he's gone past 7pm this month. So he's probably fresher than anyone has been at this point. He could probably push 14-15 hour days into 16-17 if he wants, and perhaps keep close to 50 mile days even on harder terrain. I think he probably still goes another 7-10 days before starting a final push, but he could just decide why risk fatigue issues when he can break the record without pushing to the limit?

Right now he's about 3 miles past where Stringbean stopped, 2 days later in his trek. My prediction is that he pretty much matches Stringbean to the finish, without the final sleepless day. I'll say 43 days, 6 hours, but I could see him going a full day faster if he wants to really push it. An extra 1.5-2 hours the last 10 days would give him another 5 miles/day is my logic. We'll see how NH goes.

[CalebJ]

While we're throwing numbers out, I'm going to be optimistic and say he clears the 42 day bar.

[Just Bill]

24
8/9/17
Conodoguinet Creek site
Yellow Springs Village site
39.7
1171


25
8/10/17
Yellow Springs Village site
Windsor Furnace
51.9
1222.9


26
8/11/17
Windsor Furnace
Leroy A Smith Shelter
50
1272.9


27
8/12/17
Leroy A Smith Shelter
Gren Anderson Shelter
52.1
1325


28
8/13/17
Gren Anderson Shelter
Fitzgerald Falls site
50.2
1375.2


29
8/14/17
Fitzgerald Falls site
Shenandiah Campsite
51.9
1427.1


30
8/15/17
Shenandiah Campsite
Caesar Brook Campground
53.3
1480.4


31
8/16/17
Caesar Brook Campground
Jerusalem Rd site
60.2
1540.6


32
8/17/17
Jerusalem Rd site
Wilbur Clearing Shelter
48.6
1589.2


33
8/18/17
Wilbur Clearing Shelter
Stratton Pond Shelter
50.8
1640


34
8/19/17
Stratton Pond Shelter
Governor Clement Shelter
50.2
1690.2


35
8/20/17
Governor Clement Shelter
Norwich, VT
55.3
1745.5


36
8/21/17
Norwich, VT
NH-25 site
44.9
1790.4


37
8/22/17
NH-25 site
Liberty Springs Campground
27.9
1818.3


38
8/23/17
Liberty Springs Campground
Saco River site
25.5
1843.8


39
8/24/17
Saco River site
Near Carter Dome site
31.8
1875.6


40
8/25/17
Near Carter Dome site
Mahoosuc Notch
40
1915.6


41
8/26/17
Mahoosuc Notch
Spruce Mtn site
40.6
1956.2


42
8/27/17
Spruce Mtn site
Crocker Cirque Campsite
37.4
1993.6


43
8/28/17
Crocker Cirque Campsite
Kennebuc River
44.3
2037.9


44
8/29/17
Kennebuc River
North Pond site
39.7
2077.6


45
8/30/17
North Pond site
Mud Pond
58.4
2136


46
8/31/17
Mud Pond
Mt Katahdin
53.1
2189.1

[Just Bill]

Stringbean's second half above.

Not that I consider the calculator I put up gospel... but it does generally hold up pretty well. If it falls short somewhere it's usually for the high numbers that pop off in virginia here and there.

Joe did about 50.5 on the 'easy' middle.
Calculator would tell you 31.56 average in the whites.
Real world average was 28.4

Karel is not quite far enough but close enough to say 53.1 MPD average on the easy middle.
So calculator guesses... 33.19 average for the whites.
Being supported... I'd guess closer to that number if weather is clear.

I don't feel like digging them up but few, if any, break 30 MPD. Just a natural speed limit.
If I recall correctly... most fall closer to Stringbean and come in a bit under.
Most do a bit better than the calculator would predict in the south... which makes sense as the calculator is based off thru-hiker times and the SOBOs typically run into daylight issues and colder weather despite posting faster times.
Others may disagree but the actual 20 mile presi traverse isn't really the worst of it if weather is good... but most do find that natural notch to notch hop a bit of a barrier in terms of where/how you'd extend it in either direction by much more than a shelter or camp site hop. The general strategy is to hold back a bit and survive the whites... especially SOBO. Even Nobo there are still some opportunities to race if needed.
Though people emphasize the whites and forget that Southern Maine is just as brutal if not quite as concentrated. In some ways the whites may be better in that concentration of difficulty to deal with.

I'm going 44.5-45d for Karel and agree he seems to be cruising along well with some gas in the tank.

I'd be pleasantly surprised to see someone cruise the whites and southern maine... though I think you would need all the good graces of the sun, stars, moon, weather and the trail itself to score a perfect three day stretch.

You'd probably have to be SOBO.

And you'd probably need to be named Killian.

Though anything is possible... which is the fun of these after all.
Sometimes even your average Joe can turn into Superman.

[Math Teacher]

Karel will average 35+ for the Whites. You can't compare Karel's potential speed to Stringbean carrying a pack and being all beat up at that point. He definitely won't have any days below 30 unless a hurricane comes up the coast, some super heavy rain, or an injury. Note, 40+ mile days are not unheard of during speed hikes through the Whites.

[Math Teacher]

Peter Palmer went from Glencliff, NH (NH25) to Carlo Col Shelter, 114.8 miles, in 3 days or 38.3 mpd.

[Just Bill]

Karel will average 35+ for the Whites. You can't compare Karel's potential speed to Stringbean carrying a pack and being all beat up at that point. He definitely won't have any days below 30 unless a hurricane comes up the coast, some super heavy rain, or an injury. Note, 40+ mile days are not unheard of during speed hikes through the Whites.
Yar... that's not of a direct comparison of Joe to Karel... but Joe to the trail and Karel to the trail.
Pretty much every hike I have splits for (JPD and forward) pretty well matches up supported or unsupported, NOBO or SOBO.

Karl had a very nice North at 34.8, with a 33.7, 31.1, 47.1, 27.1. Just an amazing day in there to lift it but still a day below 30 despite going SOBO and tackling it relatively early.

Jurek came in hard... too hard perhaps. But pulled an average of 40 overall on the final 10 days despite bottoming out to a 21.



36
NH 25A
46.7


37
Galehead Hut
48.5


38
Mizpah Spring Hut
21.1


39
Imp Shelter
32.7


40
Full Goose Shelter
29.4


41
South Arm Rd.
30.1


42
Spaulding Mtn. Leanto
45.1


43
Main Logging Rd.
41.9


44
ME 15 Monson)
45.3


45
near Little Boardman Mtn.
48.8


46
Abol Bridge
50.6


46.38194444
Katahdin
15.1


JPD- did exactly 40 MPD for her first 10 day average... then 48 MPD from there.
Jen did a pretty sweet 33.25 average...
Course for the 4 days after Jen averaged 'only' 41 MPD as she dealt with hypothermia and related exhaustion. By the fifth day she was back to 47 and barely dipped below that again.


Peter Palmer went from Glencliff, NH (NH25) to Carlo Col Shelter, 114.8 miles, in 3 days or 38.3 mpd.


I'd be mainly talking out of my ass for Andrew, Peter or Horton. (Not much different than talking current folks many may say!)

My understanding is Andrew and Pete are both very strong up north.

Just is what it is really.

These are simply stats... they don't dictate what will happen.
40 and 20 still makes 30.. oh my!
And any feller who went to fancy number manipulation classes beyond my debatable high school diploma would point out the flaws in citing a handful of speedy folks and the few hundred from Map Man's data set to produce anything truly useful.

A little faster than Joe.. would be about 30.
A little faster than Karl... would be about 36.
I don't think we have Horton, Palmer, and Thompson in a daily split sheet format...

My dear Pappy was mainly too busy telling us how everyone who doesn't go NOBO is a butt hurt puss-wad to get into any details on Pete's hike :D

But I'll take a math teacher's word fer it. That'd make Palmer the fastest I've heard at 38.3... and it was a nobo.
Anything is possible.
Don't make it likely.

If nothing else- I expect a Matt Kirk like steadiness and discipline outta Karel.
Credit where credit is due... I gather he has a solid plan and can crunch a number or two himself.
I expect a boring and steady continuation of metronome footsteps to the finish.
Doesn't really strike me like the sort to gamble it all on destroying the time when all that is required is a minute.
If there is a sprint to the finish it will be the last week... there is zero reason to push the whites or southern maine for Karel. No desperate push needed when you are already in the lead... turtle power to the finish.

I think his luck and good fortune have run a bit longer than most and figure something will slow him up a bit.... not that he has any real flaws personally or isn't capable of doing well or better up north.

But we've got all week for some good solid ****e talking and turd slinging afore we find out. :dance:dance:bse:jump:clap:datz

[pbakwin]

If Karel just matches Joe from here on out he'd finish just under 44 days. If he can do 40s for those 3 days where Joe averaged 28, that takes off about 0.75 days. Karel has been super strong and consistent so far. Instead of breaking down (Jurek, Meltzer) he's staying healthy and probably just getting fitter. You see this in long multidays (e.g., TransAm) - you either break down or you get stronger & faster. One of the biggest predictors there is whether you can maintain body weight, which Karel appears to be doing just fine & Jurek (especially) & Meltzer didn't. Plus he seems to be getting plenty of sleep - I don't know if Joe did? My guess is he'll do very well in the Whites. Fun to speculate!

[Math Teacher]

I think it pretty much depends on whether Karel wants to push it and come in a few hours later than he has been. He sure appears to have the ability to put up a minimum 35-40 mpd in the toughest terrain. Peter Palmer had motivation to significantly lower Horton's record. He knew Horton and had run against him in ultras and been bettered. I think the motivation for Karel will be going 43.8 days or less and cracking the 50 mpd barrier.

[Odd Man Out]

Here is what I have for his progress to date. I have been calculating his performance in Stringbean-days. Each section of the trail is measured in how many days it took Stringbean to cover that section (miles per section divided by miles/day Sringbean hiked on the day he covered that section). Then I add up all the SB-days for all the sections covered by Karel on any given day. He has been very consistently covering just a little over one SB-day every day. You can add these numbers up to calculate how far Karl is ahead in SB-days. This works out to the sum of the SB-days for all the sections SB would have to cover to catch up to Karl on any given day. You can then plot Karl's lead per day (graph below).



Day
SB Day


0



1
1.23


2
1.16


3
1.07


4
1.11


5
1.10


6
1.02


7
1.03


8
1.08


9
1.04


10
1.00


11
1.24


12
0.92


13
1.00


14
1.30


15
1.18


16
1.07


17
1.07


18
0.98


19
1.02


20
1.03


21
1.00


22
1.18


23
1.06


24
1.04


25
1.02


26
1.02


27
1.03


28
1.04



43477

[chknfngrs]

Does this data indicate Deerfoot is one point zero four days ahead of string bean?

[CalebJ]

No. 1.04 days on day 28 is the amount he covered on that day compared to Stringbean's 28th day (as I understand it). The chart below explains the cumulative difference in their performances. At present, it's a bit over 2 days of separation.

[ScottS]

No.
"Each section of the trail is measured in how many days it took Stringbean to cover that section (miles per section divided by miles/day Sringbean hiked on the day he covered that section)."




We put a special page on FastestKnownTime.com (http://fastestknowntime.com) to bring together info and track his progress in the back stretch of this thing.
Thank you so much for explaining the terminology at the top!

[pbakwin]

Add the numbers and subtract 28 (the # of days so far) = Karel is 2.04 days ahead. He covers 6.7% more miles than SB each day. If he continues like that he'll finish in 42.6 days (45.5 / 1.067) !

Is Deerfoot his real trail name? I was thinking QUADrapel would be good for the Belgian! (eh, Bill?)

[Just Bill]

Fresh perspective and nicely done Odd Man Out.

Deerfoot... close to the Jurker's non hiker trail name.

Well... the not quite always truthfully polite writer in me finds 'Guinness' to be an appropriately poetic choice.

We could let the Belgian set the bar based upon how much he lowers the mark... Dubbel, Tripel, or Quadrupel.

If'n I'm feeling a bit more stylistically accurate:A Belgian Strong seems most accurate.

While he may not have picked up enough sunshine yet to be a true blonde; Duvel may be a good option being about an hour or so from his home and his golden yellow shirt.
Along with bucking a bit of tradition and creating a slightly new style in the 'golden strong', expert craftsmanship, quick, light, smooth, lively and above all: consistent.


Though a good solid Belgian Strong Dark seems the best pairing. Chimay Bleue is not too distant either and while Matt Kirk may the 'The Grand' this beer is the Grande Reserve.
And in this case, I will bow to Chimay's description as it seems to fit quite accurately given Peter's observations yesterday on breaking down or getting stonger:
"The Chimay Grande Réserve is a dark ale with a powerful aroma. Its complex flavor improves with passing time."

Though he may wish to go with the more general 'Grand Cru' as the name applies only to the best... and his crew has been amazing.

If the bastard figures out how to pull out a 40- St. Bernardus Abt 12 is the only viable option.

[Just Bill]

On a more relevant note:
The news in the midwest mentioned a pretty ripping storm racing right on up the strip of trail from Bear mountain clear up to Killington.
Hate to use the term fake news... but seems every weather event is covered as a horrific disaster if they can score some film of a flooded ditch or swollen creek.

So what's the word on the ground- Did the trail get wholloped or just enough clogged sewers in the lowlands to make a headline out of?

[pbakwin]

My head is spinning from your facility for beer-related trail names! Don't know about local weather, but looks like he'll get his usual 50+ today.

Forgive me while I do my scientist thing: You can see on OMO's graph that the curve is leveling out slightly. It took him 11 days to get 1 day ahead, then another 16 days to extend that to 2 days. Maybe SB got stronger relative to KS, or maybe KS is resting on his laurels after banking a significant cushion? Either way, if the trend continues he won't finish 3 days ahead.

[TrailRunnerGuy]

This is basically the section that Stringbean did 60 miles in, isn't it? I see 57 tops today (Main Rd), and he'd be going til at least 8pm to get that far. 3 other smaller road crossings before then, around 51, 53, 55 miles, more or less.

[Odd Man Out]

No. 1.04 days on day 28 is the amount he covered on that day compared to Stringbean's 28th day (as I understand it). The chart below explains the cumulative difference in their performances. At present, it's a bit over 2 days of separation.

Close. What is means is that on day 28 Karel covered a section of trail that Stringbean took 1.04 days to cover on the day Stringbean covered it (which wasn't necessarily day 28). When Karel got a bit of a lead over SB, I realized that my original algorithm for comparing the hikers had a flaw. Suppose on day X of their respective hikes, Karel hiked 52 miles vs SB who hiked 48. It would seem that Karel built a 4 mile lead that day. But if Karel had a day lead over SB, he may have been hiking a section that was relatively easy on day X whereas SB (a day behind) may have been hiking a more difficult section on day X. So it was more consistent to compare what Karl did on day X to what SB did on day X+1. But since the lead isn't a whole day, the number crunching I did was to calculate the time SB took on each section of the trail and use this as a benchmark.

[CalebJ]

Close. What is means is that on day 28 Karel covered a section of trail that Stringbean took 1.04 days to cover on the day Stringbean covered it (which wasn't necessarily day 28). When Karel got a bit of a lead over SB, I realized that my original algorithm for comparing the hikers had a flaw. Suppose on day X of their respective hikes, Karel hiked 52 miles vs SB who hiked 48. It would seem that Karel built a 4 mile lead that day. But if Karel had a day lead over SB, he may have been hiking a section that was relatively easy on day X whereas SB (a day behind) may have been hiking a more difficult section on day X. So it was more consistent to compare what Karl did on day X to what SB did on day X+1. But since the lead isn't a whole day, the number crunching I did was to calculate the time SB took on each section of the trail and use this as a benchmark.
I re-read that later and caught the mistake. Your version makes are a lot more sense for comparing one hike to another.

[chknfngrs]

Regarding Deerfoot, that’s the name being used on his Facebook page. I suppose it could be one of his crew.

[Just Bill]

Dumped this into a single sheet. Being a non scientific carpenter... not my area of expertise but excel graphs fancy enough to do the job I think.
I'd guess one of you could do something more dynamic with the data but from past discussion on the subject I personally find this more useful.

For the new kids:
Map Man published an article here digesting a few hundred hikes to give us some data. https://whiteblaze.net/forum/content.php/44-AT-Hiking-Rates-Section-by-Section
I believe that's the latest one.
It's been a handy guide overall for hikers.

Backaways I used his info to blend together a calculator for regular hikers, and then realized I could adopt it for Speed hikers. As mentioned before- It isn't gospel but it does a decent job showing the 'natural speed limit' of the AT.

Because of Map Man's innovative approach to breaking down the trail by sections that make more sense... it also allows us to look at hikes relative to each other in either direction without getting too bogged down in stretching time or distance relative to each hike.

To build the chart; I just convert the daily splits into close enough whole days that match up with Map Man's section breaks. Then an average MPD is calculated to represent that section.
The graph just visually displays the chart.
This may not get me in the good graces of any statisticians... but it does help everyone see the trail in a slightly different way and compare efforts on a section by section basis.

Attached-
The chart
All hikes graphed- including the average NOBO, average SOBO, and the curve I use for speed hike calculations.
Just the speedy hikes graphed- for a bit better view I cut out anything below 27 MPD

Generally- most FKT hikes do better on the Springer to Fontana section- but that makes sense given most FKT's blast off or finish strong compared to an average hiker.

For the most part things line up... where they don't there is usually a decent reason.
One notable exception is Matt Kirk's first section

43478SOBO (Katahdin to Stratton) where Matt dealt with huge rains and flooded stream crossings.

I put dashed lines in for hikes based upon my calculator- a 45 day goal and a 40 day goal.
I put Knotts hike in with a dashed line as you will note it has some notable exceptions visually and statistically (like two 70 Mile days and a busted split sheet overall).

I put Karel in as a bold line. For the moment- I slapped in two 52 days for 28/29 just to complete one more section.
FWIW... he's matching decently with the 45 day line in my opinion.
JPD (other than a very FKT like start and finish) matches up pretty well with this general curve.
Karl was more up and down due to injury and recovery... and despite the drama Scott ended up doing very well up north. He lagged in the south due to the quad injury.
43479
43480

For anyone who'd like them- here is a link to the folder with these- including the Excel Sheet used.
https://1drv.ms/f/s!Apygyt54yYPwg8FKha_-igCzAY-8qw

[Odd Man Out]

This is basically the section that Stringbean did 60 miles in, isn't it? I see 57 tops today (Main Rd), and he'd be going til at least 8pm to get that far. 3 other smaller road crossings before then, around 51, 53, 55 miles, more or less.

Yes, SB did a 59 mile day going into Tyringham MA, which is where Karel started this morning. This is a good example of where different ways of crunching the numbers give slightly different results. Yesterday, Karel's lead (in miles) over SB increased from 106.1 to 111.0 miles, but his lead (in days) decreased from 2.04 to 2.00. This is because yesterday, Karel covered on his day 29 the section that SB covered on his day 31. Karel's 56.8 miles yesterday padded his lead in miles (vs SB's 51.9 on day 29), but he lost a little in time because he "should" have covered 59 miles yesterday. The difference in this part of the trail is small and it obviously evens out in the end. But in a few days when Karel gets to the Whites, the difference will be more pronounced. Suppose from this point out where Karel had exactly a 2 day lead he just matched SB's performance. His lead would always be exactly 2 days. However his mileage lead would drop in half and then recover, reflecting the different times the two were covering the difficult sections in NH and ME. However that loss of lead would not be real and would be an artifact of the way the numbers are crunched. Here is what it would look like if Karel matched SB exactly for the rest of the hike to break the record by two days.



Day
Lead in Miles
Lead in Days


29.00
111.0
2.0


30.00
108.2
2.0


31.00
100.0
2.0


32.00
101.0
2.0


33.00
105.2
2.0


34.00
100.7
2.0


35.00
74.1
2.0


36.00
53.0
2.0


37.00
58.2
2.0


38.00
70.5
2.0


39.00
79.6
2.0


40.00
79.9
2.0


41.00
81.2
2.0


42.00
84.8
2.0


43.00
98.4
2.0


43.51
110.7
2.0

[Odd Man Out]

And for the record, I'm partial to Duvel.

[Just Bill]

And for the record, I'm partial to Duvel.
Had one from Peter's town- https://www.averybrewing.com/beers/the-reverend

Had a Stella Artois on hand as well.

Yesterday's discussion made me thirsty and that's what I had in the fridge.

Duvell, Gulden Drakk are bout a coinflip fer me...

Probably going to end up in that section next resupply.

[chknfngrs]

Duvel is proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy

[Math Teacher]

Clockwork Orange Belgian Wit made by Grand Rapids Brewing Company ... "Clockwork Orange" might be a good trailname for Karel since so far he's been in early like "clockwork"

[chknfngrs]

Orange however may be too close to Netherlands and not Belgium. .

[Math Teacher]

looking like some rain and mud today for Karel in Vermont

[Just Bill]

With day 28 posted- I popped a number into the calculator that matched his actual times well enough.
Calculator and the mark I pulled from me bum line up about right.

43486

[pbakwin]

Looking at the route for today, it seems like he either has to do about 58.5 miles to VT Hwy 11, or camp in a shelter? Looks like a wet, muddy day for him in any case.

[Math Teacher]

It appears that the tracker has become mud-splattered and waterlogged at the base of Stratton Mountain.

[chknfngrs]

It appears that the tracker has become mud-splattered and waterlogged at the base of Stratton Mountain.


Hilarious! Hopefully it’ll right itself

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Not sure where he stopped, but at 430 he was just north of Spruce Peak shelter, south of 11.

[Math Teacher]

He got in his 50 miles yesterday as indicated by where he is this morning at 8 am. He should finish today a few miles after climbing Killington. It wouldn't surprise me if Karel the Belgian Blur enjoys the muck. He doesn't seem to be fazed by much.

[pbakwin]

I guess probably Wm B Douglas shelter last night? With an unusual 3am (ish) start!

[black chucks]

...unless Karel's a true mutant, the miles will eventually take their toll...

That post was three weeks ago. Have we decided if he is one yet? :)

Just Bill said "I expect a boring and steady continuation of metronome footsteps to the finish."

I agree the Karel-tronome is up to finishing the job. I just wonder if he stops at K or will he just get up at 4 and keep on 50-mileing!

[pbakwin]

That post was three weeks ago. Have we decided if he is one yet? :)


Yes & no. On average Karel has continued to move faster than SB, but somewhat less so as time goes on. For the first three 10-day periods Karel was 8.6%, 6.9% and 4.0% (respectively) faster than SB. If this trend continues Karel will finish between 2 and 3 days faster than SB. But, we'll have to see about the White Mtns, of course. Is Karel slowing down or did SB speed up? Karel averaged 52.5, 53.4 and 53.5 miles in each of these 10 day periods (respectively), while SB averaged 47.8, 49.7 and 50.5. So, Karel sped up, but SB sped up more! [Caveat to all this being that they weren't on exactly the same terrain during their respective 10 day intervals - leaving that nuance to OMO!]

Probably Karel is a supported mutant, and SB is a self-supported mutant.

[TrailRunnerGuy]

I guess probably Wm B Douglas shelter last night? With an unusual 3am (ish) start!

Maybe the tracker was right all along, and he stayed at Story Spring with an early finish? I didn't check to see if it had moved at all very late in the evening but I think it was still right around there in the same place since 16:30 at dark. I think there were pretty big storms yesterday afternoon and it may have been safer to just end the day early, and maybe he got up super early this morning? It doesn't matter that much except for statistics of daily mileage.

[pbakwin]

The new tracker seems to work better than the old one, except that the new one seems to do a worse job of filling in the buffered points. Anyway, yes, he was either at Story Spr or Douglas last night. Douglas gives him his usual 50+. Tracking resumed once he got above Manchester Center early this morning. From Douglas to US4 is 56 miles, which is what he'll have to do to avoid another night in a shelter.

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Looks to be stopped at a minor road crossing (Upper Cold River Rd) south of Killington. I think he just used a little of his buffer yesterday to stop early with a thunderstorm at Story Spr, 41 miles, and has done 55 from there today. Stayed safe and maybe lost 6 miles of his buffer to Stringbean on this section--no big deal. Possibly not done for the day but it's been over 90 minutes there now.

[TrailRunnerGuy]

A friend of mine who's thru hiking says "He just passed us on Killington." I'm not sure if "on Killington" is anything past VT103 which means tracker could be right, or if he's actually further along and near the top. She says "he looks okay". First report of anything less than "strong" or "great", but toward the end of day 32 I guess he's entitled to be just only okay! He did have someone with him. I don't want to push her too much for info as she probably has other stuff to catch up on at the end of her day. And not that I think this is all anything but totally legit, but it is nice to get another report of a sighting on trail.

[pbakwin]

What? No, the tracker shows him going more than an hour past Story Spring. There's no way he'd have turned back to that shelter. He made it to Stratton Pond Shelter at a minimum. Great to learn of a sighting today! I wouldn't see him stopping early today unless the weather really went to ****. At 4:20pm he had <20km to the highway. I wonder if he'll push a little late to get a shower!?

[TrailRunnerGuy]

OK, I haven't looked hard enough at the tool to see anything but his last reported location so I can't see where I was looking yesterday early evening when he appeared to be stopped. I thought what I saw was very near Story Spring but I could be wrong, and like I said it could've updated later in the evening. If you saw something else that's probably right.

[Math Teacher]

Karel got in another 50 miles yesterday and the extended weather forecast is good other than maybe a dismal day on Wednesday when he will most likely traverse the Presidentials.

[Math Teacher]

The Belgian Blur is flying today. He might be through Mahoosuc Notch by tomorrow morning.

[matthew.d.kirk]

That post was three weeks ago. Have we decided if he is one yet? :)

Oh, he's definitely a mutant in my book! The sheer number of 50+ MPD boggles my mind... no matter how he finishes out thru NH/ME.


He might be through Mahoosuc Notch by tomorrow morning.

hmmm, not so sure about that. These next couple of days will be interesting to watch.

[pbakwin]

To get his 50+ he'll need to get past Hanover tonight. Another 50 after that will put him over Moosilauke tomorrow night!

[Furlough]

Though a good solid Belgian Strong Dark seems the best pairing. Chimay Bleue is not too distant either and while Matt Kirk may the 'The Grand' this beer is the Grande Reserve.
And in this case, I will bow to Chimay's description as it seems to fit quite accurately given Peter's observations yesterday on breaking down or getting stonger:
"The Chimay Grande Réserve is a dark ale with a powerful aroma. Its complex flavor improves with passing time."


Now you are talking. My choice to celebrate this amazing feet.....err feat is: "Cuvee Van de Keizer - Goulden Carolus - exceptional dark ale, ages well, developing a refined complexity amid intense aromas". Given this Karel's herculean efforts I think hoisting this brew in his honor is befitting his incredible accomplishments. I'll let mine age a bit more until the deed is done.

Furlough

[Math Teacher]

Well, Karel did not tarry in Hanover.

[pbakwin]

He sure has a penchant for stopping places with no cell coverage... I'm guessing Hanover Ctr Rd / Etna, + or -. That'd be 52.7 for the day. Yawn....

[TrailRunnerGuy]

He sure has a penchant for stopping places with no cell coverage... I'm guessing Hanover Ctr Rd / Etna, + or -. That'd be 52.7 for the day. Yawn....

Could be that he's getting to a road and shutting off the device before it has a chance to either take a reading or transmit the last position.

[pbakwin]

Likely we'll have spottier tracking in the Whites, and really from here on out. Someone should lend him an inReach tracker! Seems like the buffering isn't working well with this newer tracker.

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Tracker shows him just past Beaver Brook, probably made it to Lost River Rd (112). About 2 days + 10 miles ahead. 57 miles from Mt Washington.

Here's where it gets interesting. Tuesday night into Wednesday looks like terrible weather--heavy rain, thunderstorms and winds up to 70mph. Thursday is windy but clear. The smart move would be to push tomorrow as late and far as he can, and hunker down Wednesday and even take a zero if it's bad all day. Then up and over Mt Washington on Thursday. Adjust as needed if the forecast changes. Backseat driving from someone who's never been to NH. Stringbean did 27.9, 25.5, and 31.8 in this section.

[chknfngrs]

The last thing he needs is to be blown off the white mountains. Dudes been mechanical to this point hasn’t he, and seems skilled enough to know his limits

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Just watched a bit of facebook live as he's going up Mt. Lafayette. A little tired but moving well--22 miles already by 10:45! He says he wants to make it through the Whites without injury, and once he gets to Maine he knows there is still some difficult terrain but thinks he'll be able to smell the barn. He says this is probably his favorite section, and the good weather so far has helped. If he said anything specific about weather and plans for tomorrow I missed it. The forecast no longer says heavy rains and winds are slightly diminished--35-50mph with 65mph gusts.

[spfleisig]

Just watched a bit of facebook live as he's going up Mt. Lafayette. A little tired but moving well--22 miles already by 10:45! He says he wants to make it through the Whites without injury, and once he gets to Maine he knows there is still some difficult terrain but thinks he'll be able to smell the barn. He says this is probably his favorite section, and the good weather so far has helped. If he said anything specific about weather and plans for tomorrow I missed it. The forecast no longer says heavy rains and winds are slightly diminished--35-50mph with 65mph gusts.

A few weeks ago I hiked to the top of Mt. Washington with my son. We were planning on doing it on the Saturday but the summit forecast was nasty and had the word tornadic in it. So we bailed on Saturday and went up Sunday. Saturday's weather turned out fine so you just never know up there.

[pbakwin]

Early start this morning after early end yesterday. I'd guess he'll gun for Crawford Notch, which would be a 45 mile day in the heart of the Whites! And he'd be cued up for the Presi Traverse tomorrow. Wind & rain - classic White Mtns!

[TrailRunnerGuy]

Early start this morning after early end yesterday. I'd guess he'll gun for Crawford Notch, which would be a 45 mile day in the heart of the Whites! And he'd be cued up for the Presi Traverse tomorrow. Wind & rain - classic White Mtns!
If he makes that, and I agree that seems likely, that gives him essentially a 3 day lead.

[chknfngrs]

He’s up mt Jackson, staying at the hut over there maybe? Awesome day

[Odd Man Out]

He’s up mt Jackson, staying at the hut over there maybe? Awesome day

I saw that. He seems to be going later today than previous days. Today he will have covered nearly twice the distance that Stringbean covered in this section (1.87 SB days) and his lead over record pace would be 3.21 days.