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Corley
09-10-2018, 11:51
The Virginia Department of Emergency Management (VDEM) is warning residents and visitors to prepare for Hurricane Florence. The current storm track has this category 3 hurricane hitting NC late Thursday evening. This slow moving storm is strengthening this morning so its likely to produce very high winds and torrential rains affecting most of the AT in VA. The most recent updates on this storm can be found at http://www.vaemergency.gov/

VDEM put the Shenandoah Mountain Rescue Group and other SAR units on standby last night.

Venchka
09-10-2018, 12:01
And the Carolinas. And Tennessee.
The mountains are already soggy.
New rain won’t be any fun.
Be safe Y’all!
Wayne

Bird Dawg
09-10-2018, 12:35
I started section hiking the AT in 2015. My first trip was supposed to go from Erwin, TN, to Damascus. That year, we hiked straight into the teeth of Tropical Storm / Hurricane Juaquin. I had to get off the Trail at Mountain Harbor Hostel because the chafing was so bad I could not continue. In 2016, my buddies and I continued north - from Damascus - and have hiked every year since. This year, I am all set to hike the missing section between Mountain Harbour and Damascus. Want to guess when? I'm leaving this Wednesday and will hit the Trail Thursday with a friend who's never been on the AT. I guess I'll just have to refer to the section between Erwin and Damascus as "Hurricane Alley". Wish us luck!

DownYonder
09-10-2018, 13:14
I started section hiking the AT in 2015. My first trip was supposed to go from Erwin, TN, to Damascus. That year, we hiked straight into the teeth of Tropical Storm / Hurricane Juaquin. I had to get off the Trail at Mountain Harbor Hostel because the chafing was so bad I could not continue. In 2016, my buddies and I continued north - from Damascus - and have hiked every year since. This year, I am all set to hike the missing section between Mountain Harbour and Damascus. Want to guess when? I'm leaving this Wednesday and will hit the Trail Thursday with a friend who's never been on the AT. I guess I'll just have to refer to the section between Erwin and Damascus as "Hurricane Alley". Wish us luck!

They are currently projecting as much as 12" of rain in that area. Having gone thru Hugo 20 miles away from Damascus, I can tell you that you might want to review your plans on Wednesday evening. It was just upgraded to CAT 4 and might be worse than Hugo. Good luck!!!!

Quik
09-10-2018, 13:33
I'm hiking SOBO with a fairly weak signal off and on.

Has there been a landfall path(s) posted by the weather forecasters, any predictions of path after making landfall?

Any info posted here would be helpful for me and others currently hiking south. It's better to be in town and out of weather like this than hanging between two trees.

thanks

Crushed Grapes
09-10-2018, 14:08
I'm hiking SOBO with a fairly weak signal off and on.

Has there been a landfall path(s) posted by the weather forecasters, any predictions of path after making landfall?

Any info posted here would be helpful for me and others currently hiking south. It's better to be in town and out of weather like this than hanging between two trees.

thanks

This is from NOAA as of 11 am this morning
43632

DownYonder
09-10-2018, 14:08
I'm hiking SOBO with a fairly weak signal off and on.

Has there been a landfall path(s) posted by the weather forecasters, any predictions of path after making landfall?

Any info posted here would be helpful for me and others currently hiking south. It's better to be in town and out of weather like this than hanging between two trees.

thanks

Crushed Grapes post shows what most models predict.

SteelCut
09-10-2018, 14:11
[QUOTE=Quik;2222538Has there been a landfall path(s) posted by the weather forecasters, any predictions of path after making landfall?thanks[/QUOTE]
The current forecast track is for landfall around south-eastern NC coast and then curving up through central NC and central/southwest VA. Landfall is projected late Thursday or early Friday with sustained tropical storm force wind strength winds (>40mph) out ahead of the storm that will impact the NC/VA AT sections as early as Thursday.

Of course, these predictions and tracks can change.

Good luck.

Crushed Grapes
09-10-2018, 14:14
Crushed Grapes post shows what most models predict.
Crazy how well defined the cone is, if I remember correctly a few days ago it was all over the place

gpburdelljr
09-10-2018, 15:05
From the ATC:

http://www.appalachiantrail.org/home/explore-the-trail/trail-updates

SawnieRobertson
09-10-2018, 15:17
They are currently projecting as much as 12" of rain in that area. Having gone thru Hugo 20 miles away from Damascus, I can tell you that you might want to review your plans on Wednesday evening. It was just upgraded to CAT 4 and might be worse than Hugo. Good luck!!!!

Where did you learn that there may be 12" ahead for this area? Thanks.

Venchka
09-10-2018, 15:46
Soggy earth. Dead trees from fires in recent memory.
More rain on soggy ground.
Dead trees falling.
Be safe Y’all!
Wayne

Venchka
09-10-2018, 15:51
Where did you learn that there may be 12" ahead for this area? Thanks.
Reason enough to keep a close watch on the storm. Stay home if there’s any possibility of flooding and wind and downed trees.
Watch the weather, wind & rainfall, in Asheville and Boone North Carolina. If it’s bad there it’s pretty much bad throughout the mountains.
Be safe!
Wayne

Venchka
09-10-2018, 16:15
Where did you learn that there may be 12" ahead for this area? Thanks.
Currently watching the Weather Channel. It’s all canned warnings and hyped computer model numbers right now. Gotta keep the ratings up. Too early to tell what will actually happen.
Suffice to say this year has been very wet already in the Carolinas and Virginia. More rain will not be pretty.
Hiking in the mountains this week and next would be interesting to say the least.
Wayne

johnnybgood
09-10-2018, 16:34
Where did you learn that there may be 12" ahead for this area? Thanks.
There are two climatological weather data models used to predict storm tracks for hurricanes. One is the European model and the other is the U.S. data model.
The Euro model has the track more westerly and "hanging up" in the foothills of the Appalachian Mountains spinning around like a washing machine.
More than 12" over 3-5 days is very possible. Even the U.S. which has it turning more north has the entire state picking up significant rainfall over the entire weather event.

bbikebbs
09-10-2018, 17:07
Maybe this site will be of some help:

https://www.atweather.org/

Traveler
09-10-2018, 17:21
There are several models used to track these storms, called "Spaghetti models". These are updated every 6-hours (5am, 11am, 5pm, and 11pm). These models have a lot of tracks depending on the data set being used, many of them now showing a possible trend to the north, making landfall around Cape Haderas and into Southern VA. Some of the tracks are trending more west into the Raleigh area with outliers to Charlotte area.

Making landfall predictions are very difficult and are rarely accurate until a day or two prior to landfall, so many things change from the water temperature to steering wind development.

43634

There will be some changes in the forecast, but most everyone on the eastern coastal areas will get wet.

Quik
09-10-2018, 18:51
This is from NOAA as of 11 am this morning
43632


The current forecast track is for landfall around south-eastern NC coast and then curving up through central NC and central/southwest VA. Landfall is projected late Thursday or early Friday with sustained tropical storm force wind strength winds (>40mph) out ahead of the storm that will impact the NC/VA AT sections as early as Thursday.

Of course, these predictions and tracks can change.

Good luck.


There are several models used to track these storms, called "Spaghetti models". These are updated every 6-hours (5am, 11am, 5pm, and 11pm). These models have a lot of tracks depending on the data set being used, many of them now showing a possible trend to the north, making landfall around Cape Haderas and into Southern VA. Some of the tracks are trending more west into the Raleigh area with outliers to Charlotte area.

Making landfall predictions are very difficult and are rarely accurate until a day or two prior to landfall, so many things change from the water temperature to steering wind development.

43634

There will be some changes in the forecast, but most everyone on the eastern coastal areas will get wet.

Thanks everyone. I should be in Kent CT on Wed, have an overnight stay there reservation already made. Will have better internet access and weather updates, then decide what is best at that point, proceed or hold up. Heavy rain is one thing I can deal with, 12" is something entirely different then add in the wind to a saturated ground, no thanks. It's time for dinner and a good night sleep, back at it early in the morning.

DownYonder
09-10-2018, 18:57
Maybe this site will be of some help:

https://www.atweather.org/

Thanks for posting this!! I had never seen it.

Mother Natures Son
09-10-2018, 19:05
As of 6:30 P.M. (Monday.) Hurricane Florence is now a Cat. 4. It may turn into a weak Cat. 5 before hitting the coast. Be careful everyone. If I remember correctly when Hurricane Agnes hit, it was a nightmare for those on the trail. So many high water rescues I lost count. (Central PA.) Our prayers are thoughts are with everyone in the path of this monster.

gpburdelljr
09-10-2018, 20:08
Rainfall potential as of 5 PM, 9/0/18:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/205721.shtml?rainqpf#contents

Venchka
09-10-2018, 20:50
It’s raining right now. The Blue Ridge Mountains, Smokies, Tennessee, Virginia.
Wayne

krshome
09-10-2018, 21:16
It’s raining right now. The Blue Ridge Mountains, Smokies, Tennessee, Virginia.
Wayne
Ya its been raining here since March

Venchka
09-10-2018, 21:52
That’s why it’s called a Rain Forest.
Wayne

Huntmog
09-10-2018, 22:55
I was in a tent, solo, at Maupin when Matthew hit. It sucked. Never again.

I live in Currituck, which includes part of the Outer banks. For the first time I may leave. And there is absolutely nowhere to go within 6 or 7 hours. Not due to bookings, but due to the size. This storm is big and impressive. If you're inthe woods, be safe. If you're on the coast be safe....

Venchka
09-10-2018, 23:24
This is interesting.
App State has a home game in Boone Saturday against Southern Mississippi. Good luck!
Wayne

Riocielo
09-11-2018, 04:35
As of 6:30 P.M. (Monday.) Hurricane Florence is now a Cat. 4. It may turn into a weak Cat. 5 before hitting the coast. Be careful everyone. If I remember correctly when Hurricane Agnes hit, it was a nightmare for those on the trail. So many high water rescues I lost count. (Central PA.) Our prayers are thoughts are with everyone in the path of this monster.Having experienced Camille and Katrina, I don't think the word "weak" should ever precede the words "Cat. 5.". :)

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

sketcher709
09-11-2018, 10:25
Currently watching the Weather Channel. It’s all canned warnings and hyped computer model numbers right now. Gotta keep the ratings up. Too early to tell what will actually happen.
Suffice to say this year has been very wet already in the Carolinas and Virginia. More rain will not be pretty.
Hiking in the mountains this week and next would be interesting to say the least.
Wayne

Please don't do that. This is a serious storm and minimizing it by portraying it as hype for ratings could have very serious consequences for anyone who reads your post and moves on. It is pretty obvious these days how many people get their information from poor sources and can not seem to distinguish form good sources. Don;t be a poor source.

There are a multitude of models and they are in relatively strong agreement in that there is a potentially catastrophic rain event headed for the NC coast and even moreso the mid-state region. Whether it hit north NC or South NC is still to be determined. It is also still to be determined whether this system shoots to mod-state and dumps 12+ inches of rain on the mountains. The flooding will be pretty bad, let along toppling trees in soggy ground.

There is high potential for this to be a Very bad Time to be hiking in this area. Be smart, get off the trail and if it were me, I'd probably get off on the western side of the mountains if at all possible.

Consider yourself lucky to find a room as people are reporting no places to stay 6-7 hours out from the coast. Imagine if this storm hits and moves to the central part of NC to dump 20" or more rain as some models predict? So, add the potential logistics of getting a shuttle to an open room at the last minute. If it were me, I would be getting off the trail today or at the very least lining up my pre-paid reservation and transport.

FlyPaper
09-11-2018, 10:39
I was just about to post this exact image. The link may update the image, which will be most useful in the short term, but for historic reasons, here is a static snapshot (hopefully I'm using the image attachment mechanism correctly). It is looking more like wind won't be the biggest issue for most of NC/VA, other than near the coast. The storm is projected to cross land very slowly, which means that total rainfall is the biggest threat.



Rainfall potential as of 5 PM, 9/0/18:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/205721.shtml?rainqpf#contents

FlyPaper
09-11-2018, 10:41
Okay, apparently I didn't use the image tool correctly. Can't edit my last post. Here is the image.
43635
I was just about to post this exact image. The link may update the image, which will be most useful in the short term, but for historic reasons, here is a static snapshot (hopefully I'm using the image attachment mechanism correctly). It is looking more like wind won't be the biggest issue for most of NC/VA, other than near the coast. The storm is projected to cross land very slowly, which means that total rainfall is the biggest threat.

Quik
09-11-2018, 12:13
This is interesting.
App State has a home game in Boone Saturday against Southern Mississippi. Good luck!
Wayne

I see you're adding to your post count


Please don't do that. This is a serious storm and minimizing it by portraying it as hype for ratings could have very serious consequences for anyone who reads your post and moves on. It is pretty obvious these days how many people get their information from poor sources and can not seem to distinguish form good sources. Don;t be a poor source.

There are a multitude of models and they are in relatively strong agreement in that there is a potentially catastrophic rain event headed for the NC coast and even moreso the mid-state region. Whether it hit north NC or South NC is still to be determined. It is also still to be determined whether this system shoots to mod-state and dumps 12+ inches of rain on the mountains. The flooding will be pretty bad, let along toppling trees in soggy ground.

There is high potential for this to be a Very bad Time to be hiking in this area. Be smart, get off the trail and if it were me, I'd probably get off on the western side of the mountains if at all possible.

Consider yourself lucky to find a room as people are reporting no places to stay 6-7 hours out from the coast. Imagine if this storm hits and moves to the central part of NC to dump 20" or more rain as some models predict? So, add the potential logistics of getting a shuttle to an open room at the last minute. If it were me, I would be getting off the trail today or at the very least lining up my pre-paid reservation and transport.

Sketcher, thanks, he likes seeing is post count go up by adding useless info

I'm in Salisbury CT now and have better internet access, I see the storm is aiming for the NC-VA coast, this is something I couldn't see yesterday. We won't know for a few days which way it will follow after landfall. I think my biggest concern is it taking a northern turn, can't control it but definitely don't want to hike into it. I'm leaving Salisbury after I eat lunch should be in Kent later tomorrow, will check the storm status then. Hope the SoBo's have access to safe accommodations as this storm makes its way inland. Stay safe out there.

Venchka
09-11-2018, 12:31
Been through hurricanes since grammar school. The first one I remember came up the Connecticut River valley right over our house. Katrina changed our lives.
The Government did the right thing. Evacuation in progress without clogging the roads. Well done.
When I posted the Weather Channel info it was too early to know anything definite.
I wish everyone well. Be safe.
I’m glad Y’all are watching my post count. I’m not.
Wayne

Venchka
09-11-2018, 12:34
PS:
One more post.
We have family in North Carolina. We are in constant contact with them. Praying for their safety.
Y’all be safe too.
Wayne

scope
09-11-2018, 13:44
Don't be too dismissive of the potential wind threat. I was forced to seek lower elevation on a Ga camp along the AT several years ago due to the long arms of Sandy, which didn't even make landfall.

LittleRock
09-11-2018, 14:07
We're all prepping for Florence down here in the flatter parts of NC.

Two years ago I was on the last day of a section hike in Central VA when Hurricane Matthew made landfall. The hike out the last day wasn't fun, the drive home straight into the path of the storm even less so. Near home I had to make a detour from another detour because of fallen trees blocking the road.

Be safe, y'all!!!

gpburdelljr
09-11-2018, 14:38
For storms like this it’s a good idea to have a NOAA radio, or smart phone, on the trail.

Tundracamper
09-11-2018, 14:47
I was on the trail a couple of years ago during one of those torrential fronts. It rained like 6+ inches those few days. Even without the winds, it was miserable. Rain, rain, and more rain.

I rarely cancel any trips due to weather forecasts, since they are usually wrong. If I were supposed to go this weekend, I’d definitely stay home! If you do go, I think you’re nuts.

Berserker
09-11-2018, 16:50
I'm leaving this Wednesday and will hit the Trail Thursday with a friend who's never been on the AT. I guess I'll just have to refer to the section between Erwin and Damascus as "Hurricane Alley". Wish us luck!
If I had plans to head out this weekend anywhere in NC or VA I'd be cancelling. Never know what's gonna happen till it happens, but the current predictions have this thing making landfall somewhere on the NC coast and then sitting over NC/VA for multiple days. That would be one sucky wet hike best case scenario. Worst case is that it's also windy and limbs and trees are coming down.

Feral Bill
09-11-2018, 18:07
Been through hurricanes since grammar school. The first one I remember came up the Connecticut River valley right over our house.Donna, No? I remember that one when I lived on Long Island as a kid. Katrina changed our lives.
The Government did the right thing. Evacuation in progress without clogging the roads. Well done.
When I posted the Weather Channel info it was too early to know anything definite.
I wish everyone well. Be safe.
I’m glad Y’all are watching my post count. I’m not.
Wayne Be careful, one and all.

Venchka
09-11-2018, 19:10
Right you are Bill!
Donna roamed around for a couple weeks. From the Keys to Maine.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Donna
Wayne

johnnybgood
09-11-2018, 19:41
Shenandoah National Park will close noon Thursday.
All backcountry hikers must leave the backcountry tomorrow in advance of what is sure to be deteriorating weather conditions. The Skyline Drive will close 10 am Thursday.

liptackj
09-11-2018, 19:43
With the huge amounts of rain the entire Appalachian Mountain range received this year, the soils are totally saturated. Any additional rain and even moderate winds will be bringing down trees left and right, roots and all. Look at what happened in NY earlier this summer when a strong front came through when the soils were similarly saturated. There were miles of the trail that were obliterated by blowdowns. The trail in that area was closed for weeks. Anyone out on the trail or in a tent when this storm hits landfall is at an increased risk. Better to be safe off the trail than putting your life on the line. The trail will still be out there when this monster passes.

Venchka
09-11-2018, 19:56
I’ve been saying the same thing since yesterday afternoon.
Blowdowns don’t get mentioned on TV.
The Weather Service has also brought up the possibility of mud slides.
It won’t be pretty out there for awhile.
Wayne

Hosh
09-11-2018, 20:45
I’ve been saying the same thing since yesterday afternoon.
Blowdowns don’t get mentioned on TV.
The Weather Service has also brought up the possibility of mud slides.
It won’t be pretty out there for awhile.
Wayne
Everybody wants to be Geraldo Rivera, +1

rmitchell
09-11-2018, 21:07
September of 2009 I section hiked from Dick's Creek Gap to Amicalola Falls. Just after being dropped off it started to rain. Rained the entire trip. Later I heard that a rain gauge nearby registered 18 inches of rain in 3 days.

This was before I had a cell phone and I didn't pay attention to the weather forecast. At times the trail was ankle deep in water for a hundred yards or more. Chipmunk holes had water gushing up like little fountains. I stopped trying to stay dry and just kept moving. Until I got to Neel's Gap I had no idea of the extent of the flooding. Not a hurricane, but people died in Atlanta

A couple that I met at Neel's Gap said they had to wait a day to cross Stover Creek. By the time I got there it was a rock hop. Rain started again when I got to the falls. Water was over the pavement at the top of the falls. When I got to my truck the bed was completely full of water.

The good thing was that most nights I had the shelters completely to my self. Had I known then what I know now I would have postponed the hike even though it would have been a year before I could have gone back.

Hurricane Florence is a massive storm. If it stalls it could drop epic amounts of rain. Small streams could become a dangerous ford. There a lots of dead ash and hemlock trees just ready to fall.

Sit this one out.

futureatwalker
09-12-2018, 04:19
The latest European model has the storm tracking slightly South. So, it could be a wet weekend on the GA/NC bit of the trail...

https://www.facebook.com/denisphillipswfts/photos/a.143735539020261/1978689288858201/?type=3&theater

Mother Natures Son
09-12-2018, 05:30
This is crazy. So many people are affected. The trail will be devastated.

ncwild
09-12-2018, 06:43
Feel bad for all the work the Maintainers have done. Can't imagine what the trail conditions will be like a week from now.

TSWisla
09-12-2018, 08:21
I am planning to hike GSMNP starting Oct 1st. Should I change any plans?

ncwild
09-12-2018, 08:36
Would not be surprised if they close that down, as well as other trails, for perhaps weeks (?)...

illabelle
09-12-2018, 08:59
We're headed to Vermont next week. Keeping our fingers crossed that the storm peters out well before it reaches New England.

BuckeyeBill
09-12-2018, 09:30
Definitely wishing everyone to be extremely careful in the coming days. I have lived through both hurricanes and nor'easters and wouldn't play in either one again. Wayne, only two more posts and I get a toaster.

scope
09-12-2018, 10:20
I am planning to hike GSMNP starting Oct 1st. Should I change any plans?

Not from a weather perspective, but do check the GSMNP site later next week to make sure there has been no damage where you're hiking or at shelters.

p.s. numerous sites/shelters are closed now due to bear activity

gpburdelljr
09-12-2018, 10:31
Latest path (Wednesday AM)
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/092830.shtml?cone#contents

Latest 7 day rainfall prediction
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/092830.shtml?rainqpf#contents

Mountain Laurel
09-12-2018, 10:40
Seeing the massive blowdown damage with gigantic uprooted trees everywhere in Lance Creek, etc., during our section hike this past May from Irma, I am heartsick at what's to come to the trail from this storm. Florida native, born and raised, and the amount of rainfall that's forecast from this storm is mind boggling. Anybody out there please stay aware, alert, and head off the trail if advised. Everybody in the path, be safe.

Corley
09-12-2018, 11:40
Below is SNP's latest press release on Hurricane Florence:

Luray, Virginia: Shenandoah National Park will close at noon on Thursday, September 13 in anticipation of severe weather associated with Hurricane Florence. Meteorologists are forecasting a significant wind-rain event, particularly in Shenandoah’s higher elevations. Damaging winds combined with already saturated soil will make for hazardous conditions with trees toppling and branches falling.

Shenandoah’s backcountry will be closed to overnight camping as of Wednesday, September 12. Staff have suspended issuing permits and are contacting those with permits to advise them of the closure.

Skyline Drive will be closed to incoming traffic at 10:00 a.m. on Thursday.

Shenandoah’s concessioner, Delaware North, will close its properties including Big Meadows and Skyland lodges and visitors will be evacuated by noon on Thursday. For more information about the concessioner’s closures, please call 877-847-1919.

SoFlo
09-12-2018, 20:10
Seeing the massive blowdown damage with gigantic uprooted trees everywhere in Lance Creek, etc., during our section hike this past May from Irma, I am heartsick at what's to come to the trail from this storm. Florida native, born and raised, and the amount of rainfall that's forecast from this storm is mind boggling. Anybody out there please stay aware, alert, and head off the trail if advised. Everybody in the path, be safe.
Ditto your advise. I'm also a Florida native and have ridden out (3) strong hurricanes with the eye passing over my house. I've also section hiked the AT with 6 days of straight rain and high wind and rather enjoyed battling the elements. Florence is a different animal with the amount of water that is about to be dumped on the trail and I would not be out there. Be safe everyone.

rmitchell
09-12-2018, 21:19
Feel bad for all the work the Maintainers have done. Can't imagine what the trail conditions will be like a week from now.

Yeah. There are a half dozen or so large dead hemlocks on the section I help maintain. Too big to cut with hand tools and Park Service limits chain saw usage to certain timeframes.

Every time out we try to guess which way they will fall.

Wind this time will likely be from the east instead of the usual westerly .

Venchka
09-13-2018, 07:11
Thursday morning forecast.
https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1040188141464956931/photo/2
Wayne

Venchka
09-13-2018, 07:50
Track through Monday.

https://www.google.com/amp/www.brevardtimes.com/2018/09/noaa-hurricane-florence-projected-path-spaghetti-models/amp/

Wayne

Mother Natures Son
09-13-2018, 19:41
The local media is already saying the ground is saturated with all this rain we had already. Does any of the clubs (Or groups.) need an extra hand fixing the trail after the storm?

Slo-go'en
09-13-2018, 20:07
The local media is already saying the ground is saturated with all this rain we had already. Does any of the clubs (Or groups.) need an extra hand fixing the trail after the storm?

I'm sure they will, but much of this will be chainsaw work, which requires certification, for which the requirements depend a lot on who has jurisdiction for that section. Still, there will be plenty of grunt work to do, like moving limbs and tree trunks, fixing eroded sections of trail and so on. Small mud slides blocking the trail could occur in places.

Of course, someone has to walk the trail to assess damage and record it.

rmitchell
09-13-2018, 21:11
I received this email today:

To: All SMHC/ATMC Maintainers,
We have received the following directions from ATC:
Hurricane Florence is currently predicted to bring extreme winds and heavy rains, up to 10 inches, to portions of the Appalachian National Scenic Trail including Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania. Many of these areas have already seen flood-like conditions over the past few days. Falling trees, high winds, flash flooding, and landslides are among the predicted hazards.
All National Park Service owned sections of the Appalachian National Scenic Trail from North Carolina through Virginia will be closed. During this extreme weather event all hikers are being advised to get off the trail and seek shelter or postpone their hike. Additional closures are in effect for other National Park units, USFS and State Parks that the trail traverses. Any additional closures will be determined as the storm progresses.
A.T. maintainers and Trail club volunteers should cease work on the A.T. and its side trails in closed areas by 5pm Thursday, September 13. Conditions will be extremely hazardous and rescue services will potentially be unable to reach you in the event of an emergency. Therefore, all A.T. maintenance must cease for the duration of the storm.
The health, safety, and well-being of our volunteers is our priority. Once the storm passes, volunteers should use extreme caution when starting to evaluate the condition of the trail. We will reopen as conditions allow. The recovery efforts will likely be significant and could be extremely complex. Volunteers are encouraged to perform operational risk management and walk away from any situation they deem too dangerous. NPS emergency funds or resources may be requested to assist in clean up. Contact your ATC regional office for more information.

Carl7
09-13-2018, 22:50
Well, I live in Charlotte, NC, and the hurricane is on the way. My plane to Albany, NY takes off tomorrow at 8:30 pm and then I take a bus to Rutland, VT to do my next to last section southbound for a week. American Airlines has yet to cancel the flight out of Charlotte. They may be able to sneak in a takeoff before everything breaks loose in Charlotte. If so, I am out of a ticket. Anyway, I can't go off and hike and leave the wife, kids, and house to the hurricane. Everyone have a good week, I'll send pics! It also sounds like the storm track is heading up north. So maybe I do the 12/13 hour drive from Charlotte the first week of October. I've never hiked in the Northeast that time of year. It's either then or I have to wait another year. It want be those 14 hour days I had last summer, but maybe some fall colors. Man it takes a long time to knock out these sections a week or two at a time, and all I want to do is hike them. I guess it's all good things in due time.

C4web88
09-14-2018, 15:02
Well, I live in Charlotte, NC, and the hurricane is on the way. My plane to Albany, NY takes off tomorrow at 8:30 pm and then I take a bus to Rutland, VT to do my next to last section southbound for a week. American Airlines has yet to cancel the flight out of Charlotte. They may be able to sneak in a takeoff before everything breaks loose in Charlotte. If so, I am out of a ticket. Anyway, I can't go off and hike and leave the wife, kids, and house to the hurricane. Everyone have a good week, I'll send pics! It also sounds like the storm track is heading up north. So maybe I do the 12/13 hour drive from Charlotte the first week of October. I've never hiked in the Northeast that time of year. It's either then or I have to wait another year. It want be those 14 hour days I had last summer, but maybe some fall colors. Man it takes a long time to knock out these sections a week or two at a time, and all I want to do is hike them. I guess it's all good things in due time.

Did they end up cancelling the flights? Best of luck and stay safe, let us know how you guys did down there... we dodged it down in the tidewater region of VA, little more than some wind and rain.

Quik
09-14-2018, 19:36
I'm still hiking SOBO, has the storm changed directions, if so what is its latest path?

somers515
09-14-2018, 21:45
I'm still hiking SOBO, has the storm changed directions, if so what is its latest path?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/213156.shtml?cone#contents

DownYonder
09-14-2018, 22:31
Well, I live in Charlotte, NC, and the hurricane is on the way. My plane to Albany, NY takes off tomorrow at 8:30 pm and then I take a bus to Rutland, VT to do my next to last section southbound for a week. American Airlines has yet to cancel the flight out of Charlotte. They may be able to sneak in a takeoff before everything breaks loose in Charlotte. If so, I am out of a ticket. Anyway, I can't go off and hike and leave the wife, kids, and house to the hurricane. Everyone have a good week, I'll send pics! It also sounds like the storm track is heading up north. So maybe I do the 12/13 hour drive from Charlotte the first week of October. I've never hiked in the Northeast that time of year. It's either then or I have to wait another year. It want be those 14 hour days I had last summer, but maybe some fall colors. Man it takes a long time to knock out these sections a week or two at a time, and all I want to do is hike them. I guess it's all good things in due time.

American Airline has waived their fees to reschedule your flight. Check your carrier to see if they have done the same. Looks like late Monday or Tuesday are doable from CLT.

Quik
09-15-2018, 06:45
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/213156.shtml?cone#contents

Thanks! I've been hiking with Tin and Can, they're getting off at the Hudson today completing their section hike and said they will pick me up at any road crossing so I can continue on. Looks like late Tuesday or early Wed then a hotel stay for me until it passes. From whatever point I get off >>> on to Harpers Ferry will depend on trail conditions and a much slower pace. I fully expect mud and blowdowns.

Traveler
09-15-2018, 06:48
I'm still hiking SOBO, has the storm changed directions, if so what is its latest path?
As of 6:00am on Saturday 9/15 the storm track was forecasted from landfall to push west northwest through central South Carolina, at some point changing from a tropical storm to a tropical depression moving slowly north and past Charlotte to the west with a gradual curve north northeast through eastern Tennessee and Kentucky, southeastern Ohio, downgrading to a low pressure system cutting east through Pennsylvania and New England and out to see across the Canadian Maritimes by Thursday morning. Lots of rain will be carried by the storm with flash flood and landslide warnings through most of that journey. Impact to the AT will be high during the next five days or so.

Lauriep
09-17-2018, 13:03
Folks may have grown weary of hurricane - now tropical depression - reports now that wind speeds and drama have lessened. But Traveler was right; the biggest impacts for the Appalachian Trail were for the last day or so and now for the next few.

Here's what ATC posted on our Trail Updates page <www.appalachiantrail.org/updates (http://www.appalachiantrail.org/updates)> around noon today, based on messaging from the Appalachian Trail Park Office after their call this morningwith other park units along the Trail:


Potential for localized tornado events in Virginia today. The rain amounts expected are from 1 - 6 inches from Virginia into West Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York through today and overnight. Flash Flood Watch in effect for many of the areas mentioned above. The A.T. passes through many low-lying areas in the mid-Atlantic.

Shenandoah National Park: Skyline Drive is closed due to adverse weather. Numerous trees are down from 20 mph sustained winds with heavy rain and low visibility. Backcountry access is closed.

For areas north of the closure, please use extra caution as debris may still fall, saturated soils from several weeks of rain could cause trees to uproot, landslides and isolated areas of flooding.

The Potomac River at Harpers Ferry has the potential to flood at the C&O Towpath section, which would necessitate a closure of the footbridge connecting Harpers Ferry and Maryland.

And the earlier messaging (note A.T. corridor lands, including northern Virginia, the McAfee Knob/Triple Crown Area; the Blue Ridge Parkway; and other areas and roads are also still closed):

Overview of Appalachian Trail Closures and Storm Impacts


Hurricane Florence, which has been downgraded to a tropical depression, has been predicted to bring extreme winds and heavy rains, up to 10 inches, to portions of the Appalachian National Scenic Trail including Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania. Many of these areas have already seen flood like conditions over the past few days. Falling trees, flash flooding, mudslides and rock slides are among the predicted hazards.

All National Park Service owned corridor lands of the Appalachian National Scenic Trail from North Carolina through Virginia will be closed after 5pm on Thursday, September 13. During this extreme weather event all hikers should get off the trail and seek shelter or postpone your hike. Rescue services will potentially be unable to reach you in the event of an emergency. Closures are in effect for other National Park units, USFS and State Parks that the trail traverses. Additional closures will be determined as the storm progresses.

The health, safety, and well-being of the public and visitors to the Trail is of our number one priority. The trail will be evaluated for health and safety and reopened as conditions allow following the storm passage.

Hikers are strongly encouraged to practice extreme caution and monitor weather sites such as the NOAA National Hurricane Center and this page for alerts and closures, and re-openings after the hurricane passes, assessments are conducted, and clean-up and trail repairs are completed.

More details are listed in state-by-state sections. We will update the page as sections are re-opened and alerts lifted.

Laurie P.
ATC

FrogLevel
09-17-2018, 20:53
Absolutely nothing of note happened here in Tennessee. We have stronger storms with more wind and rainfall almost weekly in the summer. We MIGHT have had two inches in two days, which is nothing really.

Quik
09-17-2018, 21:34
I decided to get off the trail for a couple of days, had hoped to make it to NJ, but todays heavy rain persuaded me to call it and be safe, besides sitting in a shelter isn't my thing. Tin and Can picked me up, I will stay with them for a couple of days until this passes and water has time to recede.

daddytwosticks
09-18-2018, 07:11
Thank God, nothing here in far western North Carolina. Maybe 4 tenths of an inch of rain and very little breeze. Hopefully it was the same at higher altitudes. Hoping to get a hike in this weekend around the state line (Ga - NC). :)

Venchka
09-18-2018, 13:58
The northwest corner, Boone area, got a bit more than the Georgia end of the state line. Nothing terrible. My daughter said that they are fine.
Thank goodness!
Wayne

George
09-21-2018, 20:38
well, the springs should have good flow for fall hiking in the south

BuckeyeBill
09-22-2018, 13:36
The northwest corner, Boone area, got a bit more than the Georgia end of the state line. Nothing terrible. My daughter said that they are fine.
Thank goodness!
Wayne

Glad to hear that your family is fine. I know you were worried there for awhile.

Venchka
09-22-2018, 18:40
Glad to hear that your family is fine. I know you were worried there for awhile.
Thanks Bill! They’ve been in the mountains long enough to know how to get along come what may.
Boone has gotten much more severe flooding from passing thunderstorms in recent years.
We’ll be there next month. Looking forward to seeing them.
Wayne