Needing advise of a starting point for a Southern bound, 6 week hike on the AT.

[Desperado2018]

Hello all. I will be heading out in mid November to do a partial AT hike for about 6 weeks. I will be heading south. Not worried about where I finish, just looking to stay ahead of winter weather conditions. Wondering if VA would be a good starting place. Any advise would be so appreciated.

[Slo-go'en]

Hard to say. Since you'll be out until mid January, winter weather will be impossible to miss. Even if it doesn't snow on you or get especially cold, it will likely rain a lot with temps in the 30's and 40's and that's worse then snow. It's a whole different world up at 5-6000 feet in NC/TN.

Even if you start say mid way through VA at Daleville/Roanoke, you'd be hitting the higher elevations of NC/TN in mid December and that's when winter catches up to the mountains down there. Exactly where you end up depends on how far you manage to get each day with the short hours of daylight and possibly often sloppy conditions. I wouldn't count on much more then 10 miles a day, or shelter to shelter, which could be as much as 15 in some places.

Anyway, your going to want to be ready for winter conditions or have the money to wait out storms in town - and hope you get to a motel before the storm hits. Which means keeping a close eye on weather forecasts.

[Just Bill]

Hello all. I will be heading out in mid November to do a partial AT hike for about 6 weeks. I will be heading south. Not worried about where I finish, just looking to stay ahead of winter weather conditions. Wondering if VA would be a good starting place. Any advise would be so appreciated.
Slo's got the right idea... you're actually going into elevation going Sobo so you're not really staying ahead of winter so much as walking up into it.
As a thought to keep things more open ended... what about starting in Damascus (or wherever) and heading north to combat the elevation.

Kinda depends how many miles you anticipate covering, but Virginia might be realistic making the southern border a decent choice to start. That puts you midway through by december and hiking the fairer and flatter northern half of VA towards harpers ferry. You can keep going if you do well, but with one zero a week for six weeks VA is roughly 14 MPD average hiking day. Not bad for cold weather.
You could use middle of VA as a rough end point and work backwards as well.

If SOBO was what you were looking for... you could potentially start up in the mid-atlantic states or southern new england. In theory anywhere from southern VT down to lower VA is 'lower elevation' if you're willing to deal with the occasional bad day. We've had some pretty shifting seasons so if you stayed flexible you might be able to sneak in further north. We've only had a few leaves turn here in Northern Indiana... it's thinking about being fall today but we could easily get another few weeks of warm temps so hard to say where or when 'fall/winter' occurs anymore.

If you have a little spare money in the budget you could wait until late, hunt down the last fall colors and hop on trail at that point and try to race fall south. If you get caught up or it's rough... then hop down the trail further. If you get lucky though... you could get a great hike up in the eastern hardwood forests as fall wanes. The best thing about the AT is the flexibility and options... you can pretty easily drop in wherever and go.



The other option would be to simply hike a southern trail like the Florida trail, Pinhoti, Sheltowee, etc. BMT may be one though you're up on the ridges in smokies too with the elevation same issues.

[Desperado2018]

We will be done just prior to Christmas so the January weather will not be a consideration, however, the mid+ December weather will. Based on your replies, which are very helpful, we will adjust the trip. Thank you very much!

[Venchka]

Something my wife shared with me this morning.
Paraphrasing:
Boone, NC. Elevation 3,300’.
For the last few years the first snow of the year has been in October.
The Blue Ridge Mountains make their own weather. The high points on the AT south of Hwy 19 E at Mountain Harbor B & B are approximately 3,000’ above Boone. That’s at least 10 degrees cooler and much stronger winds.
Be prepared for winter along the NC-TN border in November and December. Real winter.
Ray’s Weather for the mountains:
http://raysweather.com
Be warm. Be dry. Be safe.
Wayne