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gpburdelljr
12-08-2018, 11:01
Up to 18 of snow is forecast in western North Carolina over the next few days. I hope no one is out hiking.

MuddyWaters
12-08-2018, 11:20
Up to 18 of snow is forecast in western North Carolina over the next few days. I hope no one is out hiking.

Id wager we see a trip report from one stalwart soul that revels in it.

Not an issue if you are prepared for it. Could even be fun.

I had to postpone some planned hiking in Arkansas on Buffalo River , insertion was gonna be issue with expected 3-6" of snow and ice accumulation. Hopefully it thaws if get it and a week later will work.

Im done working for this year :).

CalebJ
12-08-2018, 11:28
Last I looked, Mount Mitchell was slated for about 40 inches.

FrogLevel
12-08-2018, 11:31
Up to 18” of snow is forecast in western North Carolina over the next few days. I hope no one is out hiking.

I will be!

Christoph
12-08-2018, 11:35
I've been craving a winter hike (for some unknown reason). But I'll have to do a little more planning, so hopefully next year I can get on trail in the winter time. The snow pics people post up are absolutely amazing.

Slo-go'en
12-08-2018, 12:42
Sounds like it will be quite the mess down there. Mean while all we get up here is subzero temps for the next week. Was -3 at my place this morning. At least the sun is shinning and it's warmed up to 15 :)

Astro
12-08-2018, 13:00
Id wager we see a trip report from one stalwart soul that revels in it.

Not an issue if you are prepared for it. Could even be fun.

I had to postpone some planned hiking in Arkansas on Buffalo River , insertion was gonna be issue with expected 3-6" of snow and ice accumulation. Hopefully it thaws if get it and a week later will work.

Im done working for this year :).

I am an hour or so south. Just a lot of wintry mix so far, but stayed warm enough from freezing on the roads. Looking to start actually snowing soon.
Weather may change from forecast but I believe you could head out Monday/Tuesday and be fine.

soumodeler
12-08-2018, 13:12
Up to 18” of snow is forecast in western North Carolina over the next few days. I hope no one is out hiking.

If I wasn't worried about my truck getting stuck somewhere, I would be out hiking in it!

LazyLightning
12-08-2018, 15:55
I've been wondering about all the southbounders I saw heading to GA when I was passing through NH and ME in Sept/Oct.... and there was a lot of them still heading all the way south. Even at the fast pace most thru hikers go at, I think most of them were in for a surprise, winter weather wise.... some maybe even by the time they hit the Whites.

MuddyWaters
12-08-2018, 16:24
I am an hour or so south. Just a lot of wintry mix so far, but stayed warm enough from freezing on the roads. Looking to start actually snowing soon.
Weather may change from forecast but I believe you could head out Monday/Tuesday and be fine.

They backed off forecast a bit. Monday night was gonna also be around 15F . With high only near freezing . Wasnt looking forward to that anyway. Late in week lookin much better. Sun, 30 or so at night, 40-45 day

TNhiker
12-08-2018, 16:33
Id wager we see a trip report from one stalwart soul that revels in it.





what's the over/under on a report from Tipi?

soumodeler
12-08-2018, 16:39
what's the over/under on a report from Tipi?
100% guarantee he is out for this...

MuddyWaters
12-08-2018, 16:47
100% guarantee he is out for this...

If hes not hes kicking himself...

soumodeler
12-08-2018, 16:54
If hes not hes kicking himself...
I bet. He might have even made last minute plans seeing the forecast.

Dan Roper
12-09-2018, 00:58
For southbounders its been tough down south. I've lived in north Georgia for 40 years. Typically, November is about the finest hiking month of the year - cool, not frigid, dry, low humidity. That may tail off towards the end of the month, but it's almost as regular as clockwork. This year, the heat didn't break until around October 7. Then came a steady step downwards, mixed in with frequent rain and/or wind. This has been by far the gnarliest November that I've seen. Pretty similar to most Januaries here. We've had over 62 inches of rain this year, with probably 12-15 inches since about the middle of October. During the Great Drought of 2016, we had less than a quarter inch of rain from late August through early December. Just wildly different.

brian2o0o
12-09-2018, 19:28
I was headed up to Franklin, NC this morning and had to turn around near Anderson, SC due to the icy roads. I have family in Brevard, NC that said they had 12+ inches early this morning with plenty more coming.

FrogLevel
12-09-2018, 20:09
Almost a foot in Roan Mountain.

PatmanTN
12-10-2018, 10:47
I did an overnight in the GSMNP last weekend Saturday to Sunday. Went up the Sugarland Mountain trail from Fighting Creek Gap to MT Collins Shelter and during the evening the snow drifted up knee-deep around the shelter site and in the trench of the SM trail. Was a bit worried about making it to work on time today at first, as it was really slow going, but of course as I descended the snow level did too.

I'm not sure if it's pride or what the psychology is, but I've never brought snow shoes into the Smokies. I've post-holed for miles when snow shoes would have been really nice. But I guess it's the value proposition. You'd wind up carrying them on your pack a lot too around here.

Tennessee Viking
12-10-2018, 15:08
Got 16" here in Morganton. I am about 30 minutes from the gorge.

Quik
12-10-2018, 15:12
Finish the Art Loeb about just after noon today, snowshoed a lot of the way, icy crust on top of snow today, in Brevard now for hot food. We had a blast!

PatmanTN
12-10-2018, 15:26
Finish the Art Loeb about just after noon today, snowshoed a lot of the way, icy crust on top of snow today, in Brevard now for hot food. We had a blast!
Quick, did you finish at the Boy Scout camp? If so, I'm curious if you were able to follow all those switchbacks down the mountain. I'm guessing they were hard to see...

saltysack
12-10-2018, 16:03
Finish the Art Loeb about just after noon today, snowshoed a lot of the way, icy crust on top of snow today, in Brevard now for hot food. We had a blast!

Nice!!! Im hoping to do ALT start December 27 if weather improves.....


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Gambit McCrae
12-10-2018, 16:54
My best friend lives in Brevard, NC. He sent me videos of 20"+ of snow from this weekend. We were suppose to go visit him but I called it off due to the snow. We would have been stuck there for several days where he lives.

martinb
12-10-2018, 18:55
what's the over/under on a report from Tipi?
Looking forward to his butt-cold trip report.

Quik
12-10-2018, 20:54
Quick, did you finish at the Boy Scout camp? If so, I'm curious if you were able to follow all those switchbacks down the mountain. I'm guessing they were hard to see...

PatmanTN we started there, didn't have any problems.


My best friend lives in Brevard, NC. He sent me videos of 20"+ of snow from this weekend. We were suppose to go visit him but I called it off due to the snow. We would have been stuck there for several days where he lives.

I don't know what kind of snow fall this area gets on average, but they got it this time. We really enjoyed the trail and water wasn't a problem, just melted snow at night and caught it off our tarp. Some of the drifts were deep and glad we decided to take the snowshoes, wind made it tough in the open. We decided to stay over in Brevard tonight, both of us were beat from slow going snowshoeing.

saltysack
12-10-2018, 21:00
PatmanTN we started there, didn't have any problems.



I don't know what kind of snow fall this area gets on average, but they got it this time. We really enjoyed the trail and water wasn't a problem, just melted snow at night and caught it off our tarp. Some of the drifts were deep and glad we decided to take the snowshoes, wind made it tough in the open. We decided to stay over in Brevard tonight, both of us were beat from slow going snowshoeing.

I hope it clears up in a few weeks...us Florida boys aint got snow shoes!!!


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Quik
12-10-2018, 21:06
I hope it clears up in a few weeks...us Florida boys ain’t got snow shoes!!!


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hahaha...yeah that would have been a problem this weekend.

saltysack
12-10-2018, 21:53
hahaha...yeah that would have been a problem this weekend.

Personally I would love to get out in a Tipi winter hell-storm and test out my duomid and quilt layering system..


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Quik
12-10-2018, 21:59
Personally I would love to get out in a Tipi winter hell-storm and test out my duomid and quilt layering system..


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nice shelter you have, I mostly use a Solomid, on this trip we shared my Supermid

rmitchell
12-11-2018, 00:07
And winter doesn't officially start until the 21st. What happened to the shoulder seasons?

It was hot then we had week of balmy weather now it's cold. Seems as if the opposite happened in April. One week of spring like weather then hot. :confused:

MuddyWaters
12-11-2018, 10:18
And winter doesn't officially start until the 21st. What happened to the shoulder seasons?

It was hot then we had week of balmy weather now it's cold. Seems as if the opposite happened in April. One week of spring like weather then hot. :confused:
There is no average
Its all highly variable

As a kid growing up in florida
I remember winter where never got under 40f
And a christmas eve that was 10F

Im just glad we got a real winter going it seems

On my list of complaints....seems like its been raining for months, with only slight pause

Time Zone
12-11-2018, 10:52
There is no average
Its all highly variable


Of course there's an average. Just because the variance may be high doesn't mean there's not an average.

It would be more accurate to say that for planning purposes, the average isn't very useful by itself.

MuddyWaters
12-11-2018, 11:10
Of course there's an average. Just because the variance may be high doesn't mean there's not an average.

It would be more accurate to say that for planning purposes, the average isn't very useful by itself.


Averages.....are a numerical calculation.
Not necessarily represented by any actual data in a distribution. Which is why there are many types of other constructs, mode, weighted averages, dispersity indexes, etc used to attempt to describe distributions better than a simple average.

If two people have four apples, and two people have two apples, the average is 3. But nobody actually has three apples. What does the average tell you? Not much.

gpburdelljr
12-11-2018, 11:26
And winter doesn't officially start until the 21st.

Winter is just getting in some good practice.

gpburdelljr
12-11-2018, 11:30
Averages.....are a numerical calculation.
Not necessarily represented by any actual data in a distribution. Which is why there are many types of other constructs, mode, weighted averages, dispersity indexes, etc used to attempt to describe distributions better than a simple average.

If two people have four apples, and two people have two apples, the average is 3. But nobody actually has three apples. What does the average tell you? Not much.
A population of 4 is not statistically significant, and other constructs on a population of 4 are no more telling than the average.

Astro
12-12-2018, 14:21
Who would have thought that White Blaze would be providing a refresher from Stats class. :D

Maybe next week we can do Calculus, I have used that stuff in 35 years.