Article on Joel Polsom

[rickb]

Thru hiker Joel Polsom was the first person reported murdered on the AT (1974).

Apart from a short contemporaneous newspaper article noting his murder and the kidnapping of his hiking companion, I had never seen anything published on this until finding this in-depth piece published online last month:


https://www.outsideonline.com/2359316/appalachian-trail-shelter-first-murder-1974

[perrymk]

This was an interesting read. Thank you for posting it.

[FrogLevel]

The stuff of nightmares for any hiker.

[skiBee]

Once I started reading it I couldn't stop.
But now my first day back on the trail will be interesting.



60 Miles of the AT complete.

[chknfngrs]

Gripping read! Thanks for sharing!!

[rmitchell]

Thanks for the post. It is helpful to get the perspective of someone directly involved. Unlikely the much information could be gathered from the killer.

I noticed that Joel had very limited communication with his murderer. Margaret talked to him quite a bit. I'm not a psychologist , but wonder if interacting with the killer made her seem more human. Could that have possibly saved her life?

[Huntmog]

I need to stop reading these articles... but i can't...im gonna be side eyeing everyone from now on.

[MuddyWaters]

Thanks for the post. It is helpful to get the perspective of someone directly involved. Unlikely the much information could be gathered from the killer.

I noticed that Joel had very limited communication with his murderer. Margaret talked to him quite a bit. I'm not a psychologist , but wonder if interacting with the killer made her seem more human. Could that have possibly saved her life?

I would expect a captive to try to get on their captors good side. By saying or doing whatever it took to make them believe they sympathized with them or even liked them. It's called surviving.

[gpburdelljr]

I need to stop reading these articles... but i can't...im gonna be side eyeing everyone from now on.

Joel’s first instinct was to distrust the other hiker. Trust your instinct, if something seems off then move on.

[imscotty]

Senseless,

and another reason to avoid shelters

[soilman]

Thanks for the post. I didn't know the details in Joel's murder. I camped in Low Gap back in 1977 but don't remember there being a shelter where I camped. Also there is no mention of a shelter in the 1975 guidebook. I remember hearing the Vandeventer shelter was haunted when I passed by there in 1980.

[FrogLevel]

Thanks for the post. I didn't know the details in Joel's murder. I camped in Low Gap back in 1977 but don't remember there being a shelter where I camped. Also there is no mention of a shelter in the 1975 guidebook. I remember hearing the Vandeventer shelter was haunted when I passed by there in 1980.

Janice Balza was murdered there in 1975 by Paul Bigley. He used an ax.

[rickb]

Thanks for the post. I didn't know the details in Joel's murder.

Sorry that I spelled Joel Polson’s name incorrectly.

The Outside Magazine author, Earl Swift, also did the piece on Geoff Hood and Molly LaRue: https://www.outsideonline.com/2011326/murder-appalachian-trail

I was most impressed with his reasearch skills, and appreciated links to primary documents. He has real talent. Perhaps Swift will some day shed some light on the Balaza and Lily murders, which standout among all others on the AT insofar as those victims were traveling alone.

[Crushed Grapes]

Read this yesterday evening, subsequently had a nightmare last night about being followed in the woods. Aye

[chef4]

You can take a risk management approach to thinking about hiker deaths on the AT from homicide. First, they’re fortunately quite rare (although if it is you that doesn’t matter). Second, the killers most often appeared ill-prepared for long distance hiking, and in many cases seemed out of place in the woods; sometimes the victims appeared to have sensed this, and perhaps didn’t respond to their feeling ill-at-ease, but one doesn’t want to blame the victims for not leaving the scene immediately, as this is highly subjective, and if you’re tired an at a shelter it can be hard to move on. It has been true that the most often attacked victims were couples, and the mean age of the victims is mid 20s.

Probably the most effective strategy to take is to act on your intuition. A good read on this is Gaven Debecker’s ‘the gift of fear’, which is really intended for those of us living far from hiking trails in towns and cities. He has a number of very practical suggestions to help you recognize if you are getting into a bad place with an unstable and possibly threatening person; in many cases this is not a single interaction, however, as one would have while hiking, it is part of a pattern of relationship. And of course, the last thing I want to do when backpacking is to look at everyone else as a source of harm, this is really only really, really rarely useful, and far, far more likely for us to encounter someone like this living in major population centers. Where the backroads come close to the trails, however, once in a great while this person shows up.

[perrymk]

Read this yesterday evening, subsequently had a nightmare last night about being followed in the woods. Aye
Crazy. After reading the story I had a dream about following someone in the woods. Amazing how people have such different reactions to the same story.

[rickb]

You can take a risk management approach to thinking about hiker deaths on the AT from homicide. First, they’re fortunately quite rare (although if it is you that doesn’t matter). Second, the killers most often appeared ill-prepared for long distance hiking, and in many cases seemed out of place in the woods; sometimes the victims appeared to have sensed this, and perhaps didn’t respond to their feeling ill-at-ease, but one doesn’t want to blame the victims for not leaving the scene immediately, as this is highly subjective, and if you’re tired an at a shelter it can be hard to move on. It has been true that the most often attacked victims were couples, and the mean age of the victims is mid 20s.

Probably the most effective strategy to take is to act on your intuition. A good read on this is Gaven Debecker’s ‘the gift of fear’, which is really intended for those of us living far from hiking trails in towns and cities. He has a number of very practical suggestions to help you recognize if you are getting into a bad place with an unstable and possibly threatening person; in many cases this is not a single interaction, however, as one would have while hiking, it is part of a pattern of relationship. And of course, the last thing I want to do when backpacking is to look at everyone else as a source of harm, this is really only really, really rarely useful, and far, far more likely for us to encounter someone like this living in major population centers. Where the backroads come close to the trails, however, once in a great while this person shows up.


That makes a great deal of sense to me.

I googled up that book https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Gift_of_Fear and some of the highlights resonated with my own experiences.

And yes, these incidents are rare. But most do have a great deal in common.

If God forbid the Trail ever sees another one, the ATC will be quick to remind the public’s that the Trail sees 3 million visitors each year, and safer than our homes. They might even be right.

And yet, 6 thru hikers and 1 long distance hikers have been murdered on the Trail.

If that many thrus were killed by any other common vector — lightening, bears, snakes, cars, drowning, falls, etc. — I suspect you would see more discussion on how to manage that risk.

[nsherry61]

. . . 6 thru hikers and 1 long distance hikers have been murdered on the Trail.

If that many thrus were killed by any other common vector — lightening, bears, snakes, cars, drowning, falls, etc. — I suspect you would see more discussion on how to manage that risk.

I was not aware that there had been that many thru-hikers murdered.
But, we do talk a great deal more about the risks of lightening, bears, snakes, cars, drowning, falls, etc. than we do about murders. And, that is how it should be since those do provide a greater risk. . . except the bears, of course.

[MuddyWaters]

I was not aware that there had been that many thru-hikers murdered.
But, we do talk a great deal more about the risks of lightening, bears, snakes, cars, drowning, falls, etc. than we do about murders. And, that is how it should be since those do provide a greater risk. . . except the bears, of course.

I think data shows , that a thru hiker being murdered.....is actually a greater risk than death from most of those other things, and possibly on par at least with rest.

Comprehensive data would be interesting if ATC has it.

[rickb]

I think data shows , that a thru hiker being murdered.....is actually a greater risk than death from most of those other things, and possibly on par at least with rest.

Comprehensive data would be interesting if ATC has it.

I think it important to note that none of the murders of thru hikers that occurred on the AT occurred during the contemporary northbound bubble.

In every case the victims encountered a lone male at an otherwise empty shelter with no nearby campers and that is uncommon indeed for today’s northbounders. Never has there been a murder attempt on a group of three or more — though there was one brutal but non-leathal assault on a larger group of schools girls by a gang of men some years ago — also outside of the contemporary NOBO bubble.

i would welcome corrections, but I am rather confident these numbers are substantially correct :

Number of AT thru hikers killed by bears: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by lightening: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by drowning: 3
Number of AT thru hikers killed by cars: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by exposure/starvation: 1
Number of AT thru hikers killed by snakes: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by deadfalls: 0
Number of AT thru hikers under age 55 killed by heart attacks: 0
Number of AT thru hiker killed by falls: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by hantavirus: 0
Number of AT thru thru hikers killed by a train: 1
Number of AT thru hikers killed by rabies: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by complete stranger at or near a shelter: 6

[gpburdelljr]

i would welcome corrections, but I am rather confident these numbers are substantially correct :
Number of AT thru hikers killed by bears: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by lightening: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by drowning: 3
Number of AT thru hikers killed by cars: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by exposure/starvation: 1
Number of AT thru hikers killed by snakes: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by deadfalls: 0
Number of AT thru hikers under age 55 killed by heart attacks: 0
Number of AT thru hiker killed by falls: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by hantavirus: 0
Number of AT thru thru hikers killed by a train: 1
Number of AT thru hikers killed by rabies: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by complete stranger at or near a shelter: 6

What is the source of your data that makes you so confidant? With 14 states, and multiple jurisdictions, trying to compile such a list would be a monumental task, and I doubt that this list is anywhere close to accurate.

[Gambit McCrae]

sad story but a great read

[rickb]

What is the source of your data that makes you so confidant? With 14 states, and multiple jurisdictions, trying to compile such a list would be a monumental task, and I doubt that this list is anywhere close to accurate.

My observation is limitted to Thru Hikers, 95% of whom started their hikes after I completed mine (in the same year ALDHA was founded) and began paying attention.

Even though the number people who have attempted a thru hike now hovers around 100,000 the Trail grapevine is alive and well — especially in the age of the Internet which is when the great majority set out.

To my way of thinking, it is virtually impossible that a thru hiker could have been killed by a snake or bear (for example) with out it becoming know to those who are plugged in. Same for the other less dramatic ways to go, albeit to a lesser degree. I may have missed some of these, and readily invite the crowd to set me straight. I expect there are some — for example there was an older thru hiker who had a heart attack after leaving a hut some years back and I have no firm knowledge of whether the cause of deaths was listed as an MI or the exposure that followed (though I expect it was the former)

Again, my observation is limitted to thru hikers.

Happy for others input. The ATC probably can cite a few examples, but I expect not many at all.

[full conditions]

I think it important to note that none of the murders of thru hikers that occurred on the AT occurred during the contemporary northbound bubble.

In every case the victims encountered a lone male at an otherwise empty shelter with no nearby campers and that is uncommon indeed for today’s northbounders. Never has there been a murder attempt on a group of three or more — though there was one brutal but non-leathal assault on a larger group of schools girls by a gang of men some years ago — also outside of the contemporary NOBO bubble.

i would welcome corrections, but I am rather confident these numbers are substantially correct :

Number of AT thru hikers killed by bears: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by lightening: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by drowning: 3
Number of AT thru hikers killed by cars: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by exposure/starvation: 1
Number of AT thru hikers killed by snakes: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by deadfalls: 0
Number of AT thru hikers under age 55 killed by heart attacks: 0
Number of AT thru hiker killed by falls: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by hantavirus: 0
Number of AT thru thru hikers killed by a train: 1
Number of AT thru hikers killed by rabies: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by complete stranger at or near a shelter: 6

I know of one thru hiker for certain killed by an auto - 1976, just north of Monson near a strange little spot called Bodfish Farm - truck hit a hiker that I had spoken with not an hour before the accident. He was just about to enter the 100 mile wilderness.

[Uriah]

I think it important to note that none of the murders of thru hikers that occurred on the AT occurred during the contemporary northbound bubble.
In every case the victims encountered a lone male at an otherwise empty shelter with no nearby campers and that is uncommon indeed for today’s northbounders. Never has there been a murder attempt on a group of three or more — though there was one brutal but non-leathal assault on a larger group of schools girls by a gang of men some years ago — also outside of the contemporary NOBO bubble.
i would welcome corrections, but I am rather confident these numbers are substantially correct :
Number of AT thru hikers killed by bears: 0 Number of AT thru hikers killed by lightening: 0 Number of AT thru hikers killed by drowning: 3 Number of AT thru hikers killed by cars: 0 Number of AT thru hikers killed by exposure/starvation: 1 Number of AT thru hikers killed by snakes: 0 Number of AT thru hikers killed by deadfalls: 0 Number of AT thru hikers under age 55 killed by heart attacks: 0 Number of AT thru hiker killed by falls: 0 Number of AT thru hikers killed by hantavirus: 0 Number of AT thru thru hikers killed by a train: 1 Number of AT thru hikers killed by rabies: 0 Number of AT thru hikers killed by complete stranger at or near a shelter: 6
I'm not sure what "lightening" is, but I do believe lightening one's load will actually help preserve one's life. Anyway, I believe there have been seven murders of thru-hikers:
2011: SCOTT LILLY, a hiker from South Bend, Indiana, who died from "asphyxia by suffocation" on the AT on August 12, 2011, near Cow Head Gap Virginia. His murder remains unsolved.
1990: MOLLY LaRUE and GEOFF HOOD were found murdered in the Thema Marks Shelter just outside Duncannon, PA. Geoff had been shot and killed; Molly had been raped, tortured and killed. Paul David Crews, a troubled, troublesome loner who continued hiking the trail, was tracked down eight days later and arrested while wearing some of Hood's gear. He was convicted and sentenced to death by lethal injection. He's still alive today, alas, but remains in prison. The shelter has been removed, replaced and renamed.
1981: ROBERT MOUNTFORD JR. an LAURA SUSAN RAMSAY.
1975: Paul Bigley murdered twenty-two year-old Green Bay, WI native JANICE BALZA with a hatchet at the Vandeventer Shelter in Tennessee, near the Watuga Dam. Balza was hoping the hike the whole trail. Bigley wanted the backpack she was carrying. He died in prison.
1974: JOEL POLSON, twenty-six year-old from South Carolina, was killed at a shelter in Georgia by Michigan fugitive Ralph Fox, who continued to walk south and then caught a bus to Atlanta, where he was arrested. This is the first recorded AT murder.

There are one or two hikers who remain missing, and there have been other homicides of those hiking on the AT, although they weren't thru-hikers...
2008: Meredith Emerson. A sad story. Google tells a lot.
2001: Louise Chaput, a fifty-two year-old Canadian, was stabbed to death in the White Mountains, NH. She was found near the Glen Boulder Trailhead, just south of the Appalachian Mountain Club's Pinkham Notch Headquarters. Her murder remains unsolved.
1996: Julie Williams and Lollie Winans were both discovered with their throats cut in Shenandoah National Park. Darrell David Rice was indicted for the crime in 2002, while serving time in prison for another attempted abduction.
1988: Rebecca Wight and Claudia Brenner were making love in the woods in a Pennsylvania State Park while hiking the trail. Stephen Roy Carr shot the women eight times. Brenner was injured but managed to escape. Wright died at the scene. Carr was incarcerated.

[gpburdelljr]

My observation is limitted to Thru Hikers, 95% of whom started their hikes after I completed mine (in the same year ALDHA was founded) and began paying attention.

Even though the number people who have attempted a thru hike now hovers around 100,000 the Trail grapevine is alive and well — especially in the age of the Internet which is when the great majority set out.

To my way of thinking, it is virtually impossible that a thru hiker could have been killed by a snake or bear (for example) with out it becoming know to those who are plugged in. Same for the other less dramatic ways to go, albeit to a lesser degree. I may have missed some of these, and readily invite the crowd to set me straight. I expect there are some — for example there was an older thru hiker who had a heart attack after leaving a hut some years back and I have no firm knowledge of whether the cause of deaths was listed as an MI or the exposure that followed (though I expect it was the former)

Again, my observation is limitted to thru hikers.

Happy for others input. The ATC probably can cite a few examples, but I expect not many at all.

So your list is not based on any research, or documented data, it is only based on what you have heard about, and as such is totally unreliable.

[MuddyWaters]

So your list is not based on any research, or documented data, it is only based on what you have heard about, and as such is totally unreliable.
Unsubstantiated and unreliable are two different things.

There has been active community around the trail for many years, with NPS, ATC and local trail group oversight. We would know if thru hikers were dieing from various causes. Could one be missed/forotten? Sure. 7? Nope.

Murder is without a doubt a bigger threat than most other things.

The trail is a very small place. Its 2185 mi long, but only 2' wide. Thats about 600 acres....with hundreds of people on it at any time. Word travels fast.

[Seatbelt]

I think it important to note that none of the murders of thru hikers that occurred on the AT occurred during the contemporary northbound bubble.

In every case the victims encountered a lone male at an otherwise empty shelter with no nearby campers and that is uncommon indeed for today’s northbounders. Never has there been a murder attempt on a group of three or more — though there was one brutal but non-leathal assault on a larger group of schools girls by a gang of men some years ago — also outside of the contemporary NOBO bubble.

i would welcome corrections, but I am rather confident these numbers are substantially correct :

Number of AT thru hikers killed by bears: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by lightening: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by drowning: 3
Number of AT thru hikers killed by cars: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by exposure/starvation: 1
Number of AT thru hikers killed by snakes: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by deadfalls: 0
Number of AT thru hikers under age 55 killed by heart attacks: 0
Number of AT thru hiker killed by falls: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by hantavirus: 0
Number of AT thru thru hikers killed by a train: 1
Number of AT thru hikers killed by rabies: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by complete stranger at or near a shelter: 6

I would be surprised if the drowning victim total is not higher. Did you include the 2 guys who drowned in Laurel Falls (Hampton) in 2013? They were attempting a thru hike.

[jungleland1972]

Wow, I am amazed that there isn't a recorded incident of a thru hiker being killed by lightning or by falling.

[gpburdelljr]

Unsubstantiated and unreliable are two different things.

There has been active community around the trail for many years, with NPS, ATC and local trail group oversight. We would know if thru hikers were dieing from various causes. Could one be missed/forotten? Sure. 7? Nope.

Murder is without a doubt a bigger threat than most other things.


The trail is a very small place. Its 2185 mi long, but only 2' wide. Thats about 600 acres....with hundreds of people on it at any time. Word travels fast.
I think the number of murders is probably correct, because murders generate a lot of interest and get reported in a number of places. Deaths from lightning strikes, anaphylactic shock from an insect bite, heart attack, etc., may get little or no reporting. For example, post #20 list 0 deaths from deadfalls, but the following link documents a death by deadfall.

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/local/regional/2015/03/24/in-wake-of-death-appalachian-trail-experts-highlight-need-for-safety/70411404/

Post #20 also lists 0 deaths from falls. The following link documents a death from a fall.

https://www.heraldmailmedia.com/news/local/appalachian-trail-hiker-who-died-after-fall-from-annapolis-rock/article_d75906ea-7036-11e5-80f9-f7182b44bc76.html

To think that because you’re a hiker, and know lots of other hikers, you would have heard about any deaths on the trail is ridiculous.

The list in post #20 is undocumented AND unreliable.

[MuddyWaters]

Any death on trail attracts lots if attention, not just murder.

Medical examiners, goverment employees for SAR, etc, are involved. Deaths end up being reported in local media. People dont die on trail without being noticed and cause determined.
Ever.

Differentuation was made between hiker and thru hiker here.

A few hikers have fallen , frozen, drowned, heart attack, falling trees, lightning etc. Still not numbers that eclipse murders, though.....but similar magnitude. But these werent thru hikers to my knowledge. You have cited death of just hikers.
Not thruhikers.

You very well may have lower risk of death by violence on trail than at home, but any way its looked at, its still one of the significant risks of death on the trail.

And beyond shadow of a doubt.....hikers need to worry about people and not about bears.

[trailmercury]

https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/local/regional/2015/03/24/in-wake-of-death-appalachian-trail-experts-highlight-need-for-safety/70411404/

Post #20 also lists 0 deaths from falls. The following link documents a death from a fall.

https://www.heraldmailmedia.com/news/local/appalachian-trail-hiker-who-died-after-fall-from-annapolis-rock/article_d75906ea-7036-11e5-80f9-f7182b44bc76.html

[/QUOTE]

Neither were thru hikers however, so it wouldn't change the list in post #20

[gpburdelljr]

Any death on trail attracts lots if attention, not just murder.

Medical examiners, goverment employees for SAR, etc. Deaths end up being reported in local media. People dont die on trail without being noticed and cause determined.
Ever.
Differentuation was made between hiker and thru hiker here. A few hikers have fallen , frozen, drowned, heart attack, falling treest lughtnungl etc. Still not numbers that eclipse murders, similar magnitude. But these werent thru hikers to my knowledge. You have cited death of hikers
Not thruhikers.

The first through hiker was 70 years ago. Are you saying that you would have heard about all deaths, from all causes, in the 70 years of thru hikers, and could provide statistics on causes of deaths? Not even the ATC attempts to keep a comprehensive list of deaths and injuries. The following is a quote from the first link in post #30:

“....Although the ATC does not keep comprehensive records of deaths or injuries that occur on the trail, since it passes through so many local, state and federal jurisdictions, Sommerville said deaths from other weather-related causes such as lightning and hypothermia are more common.....”

If you can provide documented statistics about number and causes of death on the Appalachian Trail I would be most interested in seeing it, regardless of whether it is for thru hikers only, or all hikers.

[MuddyWaters]

You act like 70 yrs is a long time.
Its not.

Individuals like Doyle have been closely associated with it for about 47 yrs and still going.

And there were few thru hikers prior to that time.

Trail maintaining clubs are knowledgeable of everything that has happened on their sections. Its not a black hole no one knows about.
Just because no one keeps inclusive formal records, doesnt mean anecdotal is seriously in error. It just means theres no value in maintaining those records.

Non thru-hikers could slip through the cracks pretty easy,
But thru hikers have other friends on the trail and they notice and word gets around when somebody dies. Just as sure as if a student died at a school, everybody at that school will know it.

Sociologists have term this grapevine affect the chain of attachment between people. And it' can be as short at 6 people between any two strangers in the United States. This is why news spread so fast and effectively.

[TNhiker]

There are one or two hikers who remain missing, and there have been other homicides of those hiking on the AT, although they weren't thru-hikers...




there's at least one missing hiker (not determined to be a thru or section or day------speculation is suicide though) that started out at newfound gap and has never been found....


derek lueking is his name....


he bought a bunch of camping/hiking gear and told people not to look for him and left newfound gap.............

his car was up there, but he has never been found.....

[gpburdelljr]

You act like 70 yrs is a long time.
Its not.

Individuals like Doyle have been closely associated with it for about 47 yrs and still going.

And there were few thru hikers prior to that time.

Trail maintaining clubs are knowledgeable of everything that has happened on their sections. Its not a black hole no one knows about.
Just because no one keeps inclusive formal records, doesnt mean anecdotal is seriously in error. It just means theres no value in maintaining those records.
My experience as an engineer is that anecdotal information is often seriously in error. I don’t doubt that if one dug deep enough one could dig up most, but probably not all, records on deaths on the AT, but so far I haven’t seen any info to indicate that has been done by anyone. Seventy years is a long time, when you consider that a lot of paper records more than 20 to 30 years old were never put into easily searchable electronic format. So your statements about the most significant causes of death on the trail are just your opinion, based on anecdotal evidence, which you have chosen not to, or cannot, verify.

[rickb]

The first through hiker was 70 years ago. Are you saying that you would have heard about all deaths, from all causes, in the 70 years of thru hikers, and could provide statistics on causes of deaths?

Some incident could certainly be missed — especially those that occurred in the early years of thru hiking. No doubt I have missed a few.

But keep in mind that most thru hikes were completed in the age of ALDHA and the the Internet.

Some time back I calculate that I was among the first 1000 people to register a thru hike, which probably meant I was among the first 5000 to attempt one. That was in 1983.

As of this year about 20,000 people have completed the Trail and about 100,000 have attempted one. The death of a thru hiker - especially in the Information Age - does not go unnoticed.

Its perfectly OK to conclude I am wrong on certain specifics, but consider the possibility of a larger truth on this.

[rickb]

I would be surprised if the drowning victim total is not higher. Did you include the 2 guys who drowned in Laurel Falls (Hampton) in 2013? They were attempting a thru hike.
I did not.

Are you sure they were thru hikers?

Google told me that a 42 year old man and his 15 year old son drowned their in 2012. Could those be the guys you are talking about? This article said they had been hiking for less than 2 weeks.

https://www.johnsoncitypress.com/Local/2012/07/05/Father-and-son-s-bodies-recovered-from-Laurel-Falls

[gpburdelljr]

Its perfectly OK to conclude I am wrong on certain specifics, but consider the possibility of a larger truth on this.

The larger truth is that you have provided no data to back up your assertions, therefore all the specifics must be questioned. If you have a data source supporting your assertions, then please let us know what it is.

[importman77]

I'm not sure what "lightening" is, but I do believe lightening one's load will actually help preserve one's life. Anyway, I believe there have been seven murders of thru-hikers:
2011: SCOTT LILLY, a hiker from South Bend, Indiana, who died from "asphyxia by suffocation" on the AT on August 12, 2011, near Cow Head Gap Virginia. His murder remains unsolved.
1990: MOLLY LaRUE and GEOFF HOOD were found murdered in the Thema Marks Shelter just outside Duncannon, PA. Geoff had been shot and killed; Molly had been raped, tortured and killed. Paul David Crews, a troubled, troublesome loner who continued hiking the trail, was tracked down eight days later and arrested while wearing some of Hood's gear. He was convicted and sentenced to death by lethal injection. He's still alive today, alas, but remains in prison. The shelter has been removed, replaced and renamed.
1981: ROBERT MOUNTFORD JR. an LAURA SUSAN RAMSAY.
1975: Paul Bigley murdered twenty-two year-old Green Bay, WI native JANICE BALZA with a hatchet at the Vandeventer Shelter in Tennessee, near the Watuga Dam. Balza was hoping the hike the whole trail. Bigley wanted the backpack she was carrying. He died in prison.
1974: JOEL POLSON, twenty-six year-old from South Carolina, was killed at a shelter in Georgia by Michigan fugitive Ralph Fox, who continued to walk south and then caught a bus to Atlanta, where he was arrested. This is the first recorded AT murder.

There are one or two hikers who remain missing, and there have been other homicides of those hiking on the AT, although they weren't thru-hikers...
2008: Meredith Emerson. A sad story. Google tells a lot.
2001: Louise Chaput, a fifty-two year-old Canadian, was stabbed to death in the White Mountains, NH. She was found near the Glen Boulder Trailhead, just south of the Appalachian Mountain Club's Pinkham Notch Headquarters. Her murder remains unsolved.
1996: Julie Williams and Lollie Winans were both discovered with their throats cut in Shenandoah National Park. Darrell David Rice was indicted for the crime in 2002, while serving time in prison for another attempted abduction.
1988: Rebecca Wight and Claudia Brenner were making love in the woods in a Pennsylvania State Park while hiking the trail. Stephen Roy Carr shot the women eight times. Brenner was injured but managed to escape. Wright died at the scene. Carr was incarcerated.

Not to nit pick but the story said they hiked to Unicoi Gap after they left the Low Gap shelter. That would have them travelling North not South.
This story was especially interesting to me for several reasons. One, both Hartsville and Sumter are approximately an hour away from my home. Second, I too spent a semester at The University of South Carolina before going on to try other things. Third, I've shopped at The Backpacker numerous times. Fourth, about 4 years ago while spending the night at Low Gap I lay awake for hours texting my soon to be bride totally unaware that this incident had happened there. And lastly, shortly after marrying my wife we took a vacation to Helen and visited Cleveland a few times. Kind of feels like I have a connection to the story. Just feels strange having been in all of those places a number of times.

[rickb]

The larger truth is that you have provided no data to back up your assertions, therefore all the specifics must be questioned. If you have a data source supporting your assertions, then please let us know what it is.
When evaluating any information, we are all subject to something g called “confirmation bias”.

Undertanding that can open up a whole new level of understanding.

All the best!

[gpburdelljr]

When evaluating any information, we are all subject to something g called “confirmation bias”.

Undertanding that can open up a whole new level of understanding.

All the best!

In post #20 you stated that you were confident your numbers were correct. Now,you seem to say you are subject to “confirmation bias”, which is the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one's existing beliefs or theories. In other words, the “larger truth” is that you are no longer confident that your numbers are correct.

[TexasBob]

I think it important to note that none of the murders of thru hikers that occurred on the AT occurred during the contemporary northbound bubble.

In every case the victims encountered a lone male at an otherwise empty shelter with no nearby campers and that is uncommon indeed for today’s northbounders. Never has there been a murder attempt on a group of three or more — though there was one brutal but non-leathal assault on a larger group of schools girls by a gang of men some years ago — also outside of the contemporary NOBO bubble.

i would welcome corrections, but I am rather confident these numbers are substantially correct :

Number of AT thru hikers killed by bears: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by lightening: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by drowning: 3
Number of AT thru hikers killed by cars: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by exposure/starvation: 1
Number of AT thru hikers killed by snakes: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by deadfalls: 0
Number of AT thru hikers under age 55 killed by heart attacks: 0
Number of AT thru hiker killed by falls: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by hantavirus: 0
Number of AT thru thru hikers killed by a train: 1
Number of AT thru hikers killed by rabies: 0
Number of AT thru hikers killed by complete stranger at or near a shelter: 6

I think that to not include those who have injured but not killed by falls, bears, dead falls, snakes etc. tends to underestimate the danger. Murder is rare but serious injuries may not be so rare.

[MuddyWaters]

I think that to not include those who have injured but not killed by falls, bears, dead falls, snakes etc. tends to underestimate the danger. Murder is rare but serious injuries may not be so rare.

Focus was on deaths.

There has been numerous cases of other people hazards, uch as robbery, theft, assault, kidnap, rape. And even more attempted cases. People have been held up at gunpoint.

The trail averages 200-300 reported petty crimes per year, about 1 assault per year, and 1 rape every 3 years. According to ATC from a washington Post article in 2008.

50% of thru hikers surveyed reported at least one situation which made them feel unsafe.

[somers515]

When evaluating any information, we are all subject to something g called “confirmation bias”.

Undertanding that can open up a whole new level of understanding.

All the best!


Rickb speaking of confirmation bias . . . seems like you have a strong belief that people die less frequently from falls or lightning or anything other then murder on the trail and now you appear to be just completely making up stats to fit your own bias and potentially misleading others. Now I know this is the internet and I can't stop you from posting made up data. But just like I felt I had to correct your implication in another thread this is now the second time I'm linking this article in response to you. I just don't want people who go out hiking to get the wrong idea of what the dangers are.

https://www.backpacker.com/survival/a-dozen-ways-to-die.

Hopefully anyone who goes backpacking makes themselves aware of all the risks and does their best to mitigate the various risks they will face. And remember sitting at home on the couch every day carries risks too.

I do thank you for linking the original article. I found it an interesting read.

[rickb]

I just don't want people who go out hiking to get the wrong idea of what the dangers are.

I think you make a good point.


But please take note that I am in no way suggesting any of the threats on my list do not exist, but rather Thru Hikers seem to have found ways to mitigate them — at least to the point that very, very few have died from hem.

I also think it is perfectly OK for anyone to reject me as an all-knowing “expert witness” on this topic- I am not. i am nothing more than one person who has been paying close attention longer than most.

And I make no claim to have 100% of the data. That’s why I wrote I am RATHER confident that I am SUBSTANCIALLY correct- and that I welcomed others who might correct me on anything I may have missed.

But consider this. About 70% of the 20,000 people who have reported completing a thru hike and the 100,000 people who have attempted one have done so since the year 2000.

How likely do you think it would be for the Whiteblaze community alone to have missed reports of Thru Hiker deaths during that time span?

if you think the probrablity is high that more than a few would have gone unnoticed and let pass without comment here alone, I would suggest that we understand the thu hiking community differently.

Again, very Ok to reject my list as wholly with out merit if you so choose. It out there and I stand to be corrected on any of it.

I remain rather confident that it is substancially correct.

[wolfywolfy]

[QUOTE=rickb;2231586]

In every case the victims encountered a lone male



Same with bears, watch out for the Lone males.

[MuddyWaters]

But consider this. About 70% of the 20,000 people who have reported completing a thru hike and the 100,000 people who have attempted one have done so since the year 2000.

How likely do you think it would be for the Whiteblaze community alone to have missed reports of Thru Hiker deaths during that time span?

if you think the probrablity is high that more than a few would have gone unnoticed and let pass without comment here alone, I would suggest that we understand the thu hiking community differently.

Again, very Ok to reject my list as wholly with out merit if you so choose. It out there and I stand to be corrected on any of it.

I remain rather confident that it is substancially correct.

Precisely

There was almost no usage, relatively speaking, of trail before 1970, few even heard of it. Even people that lived near it often hadnt heard of it.

The idea there was a great pool of thru hiker deaths no one knows about that would seriously skew the statistics we do know about is ....not logical.

The numbers of total accidental deaths we do know about clearly corellate with trail usage, ie .they are increasing with trail use #s and time. Most are in the modern time. This is as would be expected. If trail use mirrors thru hike statistics, something like 95+% has occurred since early 1970s. 90% since 1980s, etc.

[Seatbelt]

I did not.


Google told me that a 42 year old man and his 15 year old son drowned their in 2012. Could those be the guys you are talking about? This article said they had been hiking for less than 2 weeks.

https://www.johnsoncitypress.com/Local/2012/07/05/Father-and-son-s-bodies-recovered-from-Laurel-Falls

Are you sure they were thru hikers?

These are the ones. I was going by memory and did not look it up first. I remember staying at Mtn Harbour the week after they had passed thru and read their entries in the hostel logbook. They were apparently planning to continue to Katahdin or as far as they felt they could. I assumed they were thru-hikers, and the other hikers I talked to referred to them as such. I do not know where they started, so they might not have technically been thru-hikers.

[MuddyWaters]

Are you sure they were thru hikers?

These are the ones. I was going by memory and did not look it up first. I remember staying at Mtn Harbour the week after they had passed thru and read their entries in the hostel logbook. They were apparently planning to continue to Katahdin or as far as they felt they could. I assumed they were thru-hikers, and the other hikers I talked to referred to them as such. I do not know where they started, so they might not have technically been thru-hikers.
They were not thru hikers.
The son was a 15 yr old boy scout , from Lafayette , La
Who had to be back in high school the first week of august

They were on a multi week section hike.
This was well discussed in some scouting communities
One of which was my sons at the time.

Always tragic when death is due to ignorance of hazards, and self-inflicted.

[Seatbelt]

They were not thru hikers.
The son was a 15 yr old boy scout , from Lafayette , La
Who had to be back in high school the first week of august

They were on a multi week section hike.
This was well discussed in some scouting communities
One of which was my sons at the time.

Thanks for the info.

On a side note, not sure why we are only discussing "thru-hiker" deaths and not including all deaths on the trail. Was there a reason that I missed somewhere? And why the specific thru-hiker designation which by definition excludes all others, section hikers, day hikers, etc.

[MuddyWaters]

Thanks for the info.

On a side note, not sure why we are only discussing "thru-hiker" deaths and not including all deaths on the trail. Was there a reason that I missed somewhere? And why the specific thru-hiker designation which by definition excludes all others, section hikers, day hikers, etc.

No reason, its just what evolved.
Tracking all deaths and injuries is much harder due to sheer numbers.
And there is a definite disconnect between serious hikers...and the general public

As the woman lost and died at clingmans dome a few mo ago indicates.

For instance, Maine rescues or receives reports of 28 hikers lost/ need help on AT each year.
How many are thru hikers? Maybe 0-2?

A large portion of deaths from falls......are people attempting to get photos. ( Problem in all national parks, etc)

[Huntmog]

While i agree with the point about data gathering, the idea that thru hikers are somehow better suited is laughable at best. Google will show you the vast majority of thrus start with very limited experience. Here's one of many links you can find.

https://thetrek.co/appalachian-trail/2016-appalachian-trail-thru-hiker-survey/

A smarter approach to all of this would really be to look at likelihood of an event happening. That would be based on outcome/time on trail. Thrus spend more time on trail (assuming they finish) but section folks add more data points. Merge those two words by taking all of it into looking at time on trail.

Happy holidays, everyone go outside and enjoy it 🤙🤙🤙

[MuddyWaters]

While i agree with the point about data gathering, the idea that thru hikers are somehow better suited is laughable at best. Google will show you the vast majority of thrus start with very limited experience. Here's one of many links you can find.


Thru hikers do have a couple of advantages over general population however:

1. Typically carrying necessary gear to survive , and a guidebook at least
2. Typically have a support group to backstop them and aid decision making
3. Typically have several mo experience by time get to more difficult /remote terrain
4. Typically, travel in pairs to groups nowadays

5. Typically in better shape, and aware of personal limitations in more remote terrain.

Rest is likely sheer numbers. Thru hikers are a small population of total trail users and should be involved in small percentage of total accidents.

That they are a large percentage of murders is .....interesting

[gpburdelljr]

I think data shows , that a thru hiker being murdered.....is actually a greater risk than death from most of those other things, and possibly on par at least with rest.

Comprehensive data would be interesting if ATC has it.
You THINK, but don’t KNOW. Give me some real data, other than “I would have heard about it”, and me and others might start to believe you.

[MuddyWaters]

You THINK, but don’t KNOW. Give me some real data, other than “I would have heard about it”, and me and others might start to believe you.


I really dont care what you believe.

Why dont you gather some data that its not?

The ATC may not keep official records, but they have a darn good idea. Contact Laurie P. She was information specialist for ATC for many yrs. If anyone knows...she does.

[trailmercury]

You THINK, but don’t KNOW. Give me some real data, other than “I would have heard about it”, and me and others might start to believe you.

This isn't a peer reviewed journal!
This is not an academic setting!
It's an online forum about a leisure activity, where folks share information.
Use the information if you want, or don't.

[gpburdelljr]

[QUOTE=MuddyWaters;2231749]I really dont care what you believe.

Why dont you gather some data that its not?

The ATC may not keep official records, but they have a darn good idea. Contact Laurie P. She was information specialist for ATC for many yrs. If anyone knows...she does.[/QUOTEI

I only asked if the assertions made in post #20 were based on analysis of real data, which it appears that it is not, because a number of people quickly found examples proving it wrong. If I start making assertions about statistics, I will provide links to data, or studies that support the assertion. If I offer an opinion, like you have, I will readily state it is only an opinion. Like the post #45 said, “I just don't want people who go out hiking to get the wrong idea of what the dangers are.”

I don’t know one way or another what the real statistics are, and have never claimed I did. Since you claim to KNOW, why don’t YOU gather some data, or contact ATC to see if they know. If not, why not just say that it is your opinion, and is not supported by any data analysis.(Edit: There is no need for you state that you have no data analysis to support your claims, since that has become obvious).

[gpburdelljr]

This isn't a peer reviewed journal!
This is not an academic setting!
It's an online forum about a leisure activity, where folks share information.
Use the information if you want, or don't.

A lot of people that have never hiked, but are considering it, come to this forum to learn. Sometimes it may be difficult for these people to figure out if a post is just an opinion, possibly erroneous, or is based in fact. These people need to have real information on the risks involved. I have no problem with anyone offering an opinion, as long as they admit it an opinion, and not claim it is fact. It doesn’t help a new hiker to think the biggest risk they face is getting murdered (Edit: unless of course that is actually the case).

[pickle]

I think I saw a YouTube on a murder that happened on the A.T

[nsherry61]

Reality is often very different from perception. I perceive that these forums represent a significant part of the AT culture because all kinds of people that are active along the AT participate in them regularly. BUT NO, only a tiny minority AT hikers, even thru-hikers, ever use these forums. The perception of what people do and the gear they like aren't even in particularly good parity between these forums and actual hiker surveys. Clearly there are shared trends and influences. But this forum is a self-selected group of people that like to talk about hiking on-line which many, probably most, hikers don't do.

To think that we, as a hiker community, have a generally thorough idea of what all has happened along the AT is a complete fallacy. Yeah, we're part of it and we get to follow all kinds of things that get shared and amplified in this community. BUT, all kinds of people hike the trail and/or leave the trail without communicating much with others. There could be all kinds of hiker deaths tied to the trail but not on the trail because they were evacuated by some locals or self evacuated before dying and there wasn't a news article tying them to the AT. There could be murders that we haven't discovered yet. Geez, the list goes on, and in reality, probably isn't even all that interesting. Without someone thoroughly communicating with every single one of the 100's of local authorities through each jurisdiction along the trail, there is no way to suggest that we have a good handle on all the death and mayhem that occurs.

But, we can still have great discussions about what we know about. Just don't generalize it to a false sense of confidence in our knowledge.

[Gambit McCrae]

Sorry that I spelled Joel Polson’s name incorrectly.

The Outside Magazine author, Earl Swift, also did the piece on Geoff Hood and Molly LaRue: https://www.outsideonline.com/2011326/murder-appalachian-trail

I was most impressed with his reasearch skills, and appreciated links to primary documents. He has real talent. Perhaps Swift will some day shed some light on the Balaza and Lily murders, which standout among all others on the AT insofar as those victims were traveling alone.
Thank you for posting this link, i found both of these to be great reads.

[rickb]

This isn't a peer reviewed journal!
This is not an academic setting!
It's an online forum about a leisure activity, where folks share information.
Use the information if you want, or don't.


Perhaps some have become oversensitized to “fake news”.

When I stated that I was rather confident my stats were substancially correct but welcomed corrections, I had assumed that those reading them would infer I had based them on 35 years of paying attention to these matters, rather than than detailed historical research.

Lets hope there are not scores of thru hikers who have been killed along the AT by some of my more pedestrian examples.

In other words, let’s everyone hope to God that I am correct about this!

But this is becoming a bit repetitive. I may start another thread by expressing my dismay that the songbird population has dropped dramatically over the same span of time.

I will be unable to cite any studies, just my own eyes. Anyone who chooses to disagree may certainly do so.

[gpburdelljr]

Since my original question, and reasons for it, have been satisfied to my satisfaction, as described below, this will be my last post on this thread:

1) Since no poster could point towards the analysis of, or even existence of, a comprehensive data set on AT deaths, I can only conclude that any stats posted are merely opinion, unsupported by any real data.
2) Because of number 1, a new member trying to find information on actual risks of hiking the AT is now unlikely to take these unsubstantiated opinions as facts.

[TexasBob]

At what point into a hike do you transition from a section hiker to a thru hiker to be included in these statistics? I thought a thru hiker is someone who has finished the trail in one year. By definition no one murdered on the trail is a thru hiker. Is intention to finish the trail enough to be considered a thru hiker for the purpose of the statistics that have been quoted? Who decides? Seems a bit arbitrary.

[FrogLevel]

At what point into a hike do you transition from a section hiker to a thru hiker to be included in these statistics? I thought a thru hiker is someone who has finished the trail in one year. By definition no one murdered on the trail is a thru hiker. Is intention to finish the trail enough to be considered a thru hiker for the purpose of the statistics that have been quoted? Who decides? Seems a bit arbitrary.

The official definition by the ATC of a thru hiker is someone who hikes 2000 miles on the trail in a calendar year.

Nobody keeps track of official crime statistics on the trail because no one agency is responsible for policing the trail.

I live near the Hampton/Roan Mountain section and I can personally attest to the fact that deaths, injuries, and crimes (mostly theft/vandalism) do occur on the trail. I've heard of numerous heart attack deaths, personally witnessed a lightening strike on Roan, and read local news stories about other crimes on or near the trail that never get reported anywhere else (or even reported to any agency). That said, the trail is very safe when compared to any other activity.

[bighammer]

That's some serious nightmare material, there. :eek:

[MuddyWaters]

The official definition by the ATC of a thru hiker is someone who hikes 2000 miles on the trail in a calendar year.

Nobody keeps track of official crime statistics on the trail because no one agency is responsible for policing the trail.

I live near the Hampton/Roan Mountain section and I can personally attest to the fact that deaths, injuries, and crimes (mostly theft/vandalism) do occur on the trail. I've heard of numerous heart attack deaths, personally witnessed a lightening strike on Roan, and read local news stories about other crimes on or near the trail that never get reported anywhere else (or even reported to any agency). That said, the trail is very safe when compared to any other activity.
The ATC, does not keep official records, they dont want that job. They do however, keep track of crimes reported to them.

The more serious crimes, or incidents, DO get reported. Petty crimes like theft and vehicle break ins may largely be unreported by victims. Although there are hundreds of these reported to ATC each year.

Understand that in rural areas, small towns, the SAR and police, emts, etc....are some of the same people that are in the local trail maintaining clubs. In reality, its not like a great deal of serious crimes or incidents fall thru cracks unnoticed . When a body is recovered, people take notice and determine why.

2 -3 million people walk some portion of trail each year. Keeping track of everything would be a daunting task. Which is why its intersting , to me , that small subgroup, thru hikers, are involved in about 70% of the murders . Way out of proportion. And thru hikers have always been a very small part of trail users .

[Traveler]

The anecdotal data suggests to avoid being murdered, don't be a thru hiker. Though the same data suggests non-thru hikders may fall down more frequently with a higher level of injury potential.

Clear as milk!

[Bubblehead]

Yeah, I agree that no one has died due to falling. I've hiked 1511 miles of the trail to southern Massachusetts, and I remember one day in Pennsylvania where I was hiking alone along some very narrow rock cliffs where if I had lost my balance and fell, no one on the trail would have ever seen me. There are many places on the AT where if you fell, no one would see you...

[MuddyWaters]

Several non-thru hikers have died from falls definitely.

I can recall a few in last decade. And its not like im looking for it.

Google will bring up a bunch in recent years.

[Bubblehead]

Also, just last year, in the span of 3 days, I came upon 2 men, one at Wiley Shelter in NY, and the other at Mt Algo Shelter in Ct. I felt very uncomfortable with the guy at Wiley Shelter, so I moved on. At Mt Algo Shelter, I stayed, but tented a couple of hundred yards from the shelter. They both told wild stories about what they were doing on the trail...neither of their stories did I believe. You can tell by the stories they have, and the lack of gear, that they are not serious hikers....probably hiding from the law, or just plain homeless...