When is hiker traffic heaviest - Bear Mountain Bridge north 80 miles?

[Rusty Joints]

I plan to do the section from Bear Mountain Bridge NY to Falls Village CT, about 80 miles, this year. I'm retired and have some flexibility about when I go. The bridge is about 1500 miles from Springer, so my guess, using April 1 and 12 miles/day, is that the heaviest hiker traffic is around mid-July. I had expected that someone smarter than I am had published something about the density as it moves along the trail, but I haven't been able to persuade Mr Google to give it up. Anybody know anything like that, or have more informed opinions than mine?
Thanks
RJ

[Slo-go'en]

Mapman has done studies on when the bulk of hikers show up at various points along the trail. The numbers are somewhere on Whiteblaze.

Anyway, you pretty close. The early/fast ones will be showing up in June, even late May in some cases. Then you have section hikers like yourself which is an unknown. After Memorial weekend, all bets are off.

The week before Memorial weekend would be a good time if the weather is nice. Still reasonably cool and water is not an issue. Not a lot of others out yet. The climb out of the Hudson river is a bit of a grunt, then after that it's pretty mellow. I liked that part of NY.

[4eyedbuzzard]

This may give you an idea https://www.wherearethehikers.com/heatmap/ Also bring up the "Landmark" tab and it will show a graph of the estimated number of hikers at a location over time. It's all an estimate based upon self reporting from trail journal entries, but it at least gives an idea. Weekend and summer section and day hikers may skew these results though.

[Rusty Joints]

Perfect. Just what I was hoping for.

[LIhikers]

Let me suggest that you time your hike so that you are at the Ralph's Peak Hikers' Cabin shelter during the July weekend that the Ralph's Peak Hikers' Cabin Volunteer Club has it's annual work weekend. It's a long weekend filled with food, camaraderie, and trail work. I've been several times and it's a lot of fun as well as important work for the A.T. in that part of New York. You can find the Ralph's Peak Hikers' Cabin Volunteer Club on the internet. I don't have the web address but it can't be to hard to find.

[kolokolo]

I hiked a hundred miles of the AT last year right before Memorial Day, and ended at Bear Mountain. I did see some thrus, but they were almost all flip-flowers who had started at Harpers Ferry. A couple conventional thrus who were trying to finish the trail in under 100 days The trail was beautiful, with lots of day hikers and section hikers.

I’m planning a long section North from Bear Mountain this year the week before Memorial Day. Maybe I’ll see you on the trail, if you go at that time. Let me know if you’re looking for a hiking partner. Anyway, hope you have a great hike!

[Rusty Joints]

Thanks, everybody.
About Ralph's Peak Hikers' Cabin: I wondered what that RPH stood for on the map. They have a Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/RPHCVC/ Looks like good folks.
I have a hiking buddy, although a fairly useless, lazy one. If he bails, I may take kolokolo's offer up.

[map man]

Mapman has done studies on when the bulk of hikers show up at various points along the trail. The numbers are somewhere on Whiteblaze.
Here is a link to my article that Slo-go'en mentions. The pertinent info for your question is in table 3. But that article only refers to NOBO thru-hikers and there are lots of other folks on the trail as well so someone who hikes a lot in that section might know better than I.

https://whiteblaze.net/forum/content.php/44-AT-Hiking-Rates-Section-by-Section

[Rusty Joints]

Wow, mapman. In real life I was an epidemiologist, did research my whole 40-year professional life. I can tell what an enormous amount of time and attention you put into it.