How will coronavirus affect hiking this year?

[FlyPaper]

Doesn't seem easy to predict. It might be a good time to be away from civilization, but not sure how smart it would be to sleep in shelters.

Anyone thinking about this other than me?

[Five Tango]

Actually,I am wondering why nobody in the media has reported that over 16,000 Americans have died from influenza so far but only one death reported from Corona Virus and I think less than a 100 or so confirmed cases.................meanwhile,the surgeon general recommends you not buy the masks as they will do you no good but all hospital personnel will be using them.......

Your best bet is to keep your hands clean and stay away from people who are coughing.

[FlyPaper]

Actually,I am wondering why nobody in the media has reported that over 16,000 Americans have died from influenza so far but only one death reported from Corona Virus and I think less than a 100 or so confirmed cases.................meanwhile,the surgeon general recommends you not buy the masks as they will do you no good but all hospital personnel will be using them.......

Your best bet is to keep your hands clean and stay away from people who are coughing.

It appears the coronavirus is 10-20 times more deadly than the common flu and has a infection ratio estimated as 2-4 (versus 1.3 for common flu). As for what the coronavirus has already done, that wouldn't even register as news. The concern is what it might become.

Perhaps being in a tent in the woods is not a bad place to be this spring.

[Puddlefish]

Yes, what FlyPaper said.

I'd also like to discuss trail hygiene at this time. 1. Washing with soap and water is more effective at rinsing viruses off of skin than hand sanitizer.

2. I hear far too many grumpy old men, stating "I don't get sick, I built up a tolerance!" They don't get sick, or at least not very sick themselves because they've contracted the virus previously, and have an immunity, that might last a few years, or might last a lifetime. Each specific virus comes with it's own rules. Because you're old, you've caught a bunch of flu and cold viruses over your lifetime, and you'll rarely get sick from a specific cold/flu virus you've encountered before. That's all. So, yes, kind of true, but irrelevant.

You can still carry that virus to another human through poor hygiene/habits on your part. You've never gotten this particular coronavirus before, don't count on your immunity from the more common strains of flu to save you from this one. You don't want to be like Typhoid Mary and get a bunch of people sick or killed because you think you're doing them some kind of favor by toughening them up. Be responsible.

[imscotty]

Those of who have to fly to our trailhead have to consider if flights on these moving petri-dishes will even be available when the time comes. I've been holding off purchasing my flights until there is a little more clarity to the situation in the USA.

Once on the trail you can bet I will be following my usual practice of staying away from shelters. I am happy to socialize with the hikers I meet on my hike, but this time I might keep some extra distance. Washing of hands frequently seems to be the wisest preventative method and remembering not to touch my face, mouth or eyes until I have washed thoroughly.

To Puddlefish's comment above, right on. Now more than ever it is important to practice good hygiene, seek treatment if you are showing symptoms, if you feel sick and don't know what you have, stay home. While I am not personally worried about what CoVid-19 would do to me, it would be hard to live with myself if I carelessly passed the virus on to someone else and it resulted in a fatality. We need to take extra care and precautions around the elderly and immune suppressed.

[BillyGr]

Those of who have to fly to our trailhead have to consider if flights on these moving petri-dishes will even be available when the time comes. I've been holding off purchasing my flights until there is a little more clarity to the situation in the USA.


Shouldn't be a huge issue, since just about any part of the country can access any part of the trail within a few days of travel via ground methods. After all, if one is doing a hike of many weeks (or months), an extra week or two shouldn't be a big issue.

And, if someone does pre-book reservations, even though they may be called "non-refundable" if the service isn't actually provided then they would be required to refund that money (if they won't directly, the card used would for a services not provided as described claim).

[Five Tango]

Yes, what FlyPaper said.

I'd also like to discuss trail hygiene at this time. 1. Washing with soap and water is more effective at rinsing viruses off of skin than hand sanitizer.

2. I hear far too many grumpy old men, stating "I don't get sick, I built up a tolerance!" They don't get sick, or at least not very sick themselves because they've contracted the virus previously, and have an immunity, that might last a few years, or might last a lifetime. Each specific virus comes with it's own rules. Because you're old, you've caught a bunch of flu and cold viruses over your lifetime, and you'll rarely get sick from a specific cold/flu virus you've encountered before. That's all. So, yes, kind of true, but irrelevant.

You can still carry that virus to another human through poor hygiene/habits on your part. You've never gotten this particular coronavirus before, don't count on your immunity from the more common strains of flu to save you from this one. You don't want to be like Typhoid Mary and get a bunch of people sick or killed because you think you're doing them some kind of favor by toughening them up. Be responsible.

Gee,I hope you're not calling me a grumpy old man who thinks he is immune to illness.I just got over an upper respiratory infection and it was no fun but it disturbs me that we are not discussing the elephant in the room which is plain old influenza.It has killed over 16,000 people and the press is about to cause a pure panic over Corona virus?Sure,it could get bad,but so far from what I read the average person has over a 98% chance of recovery.I will take those odds!
Don't take my word for it though.Here's a quote from Dr. Drew https://www.dailywire.com/news/dr-drew-media-needs-to-shut-up-about-coronavirus-youre-more-likely-to-die-of-influenza

[CalebJ]

Sure,it could get bad,but so far from what I read the average person has over a 98% chance of recovery.I will take those odds!

I'm not panicking either, but your own numbers tell a disturbing story that you seem to be failing to comprehend. Let's assume that the chance of recovery is approximately 2% as you stated. I grabbed some influenza numbers from a quick Google search indicating 32 million cases and 18000 deaths 'so far this season'. That's less than .06%, meaning the corona virus would be roughly 35 TIMES more likely to kill you.

Again - panic is excessive. But very legitimate concern? Absolutely.

[Five Tango]

I'm not panicking either, but your own numbers tell a disturbing story that you seem to be failing to comprehend. Let's assume that the chance of recovery is approximately 2% as you stated. I grabbed some influenza numbers from a quick Google search indicating 32 million cases and 18000 deaths 'so far this season'. That's less than .06%, meaning the corona virus would be roughly 35 TIMES more likely to kill you.

Again - panic is excessive. But very legitimate concern? Absolutely.

Hey CalebJ!We finally agree on something! I'm not ready to panic yet over something that might happen but has not yet happened.I won't press my panic button until it's absolutely necessary because it won't do any good any way.And,yes,I understand COVID-19 is exponentially more deadly than influenza but a 98% recovery rate is still pretty good by me.

FWIW,my grandfather died of Spanish Flu in the pandemic of 1918-1920 that killed 100 million people worldwide.
Here's a little statistical info on epidemics and pandemics.I don't know how I managed to miss the 2009 scare or if I simply have forgotten it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics

[TexasBob]

Gee,I hope you're not calling me a grumpy old man who thinks he is immune to illness.I just got over an upper respiratory infection and it was no fun but it disturbs me that we are not discussing the elephant in the room which is plain old influenza.It has killed over 16,000 people and the press is about to cause a pure panic over Corona virus?Sure,it could get bad,but so far from what I read the average person has over a 98% chance of recovery.I will take those odds!........



I'm not panicking either, but your own numbers tell a disturbing story that you seem to be failing to comprehend. Let's assume that the chance of recovery is approximately 2% as you stated. I grabbed some influenza numbers from a quick Google search indicating 32 million cases and 18000 deaths 'so far this season'. That's less than .06%, meaning the corona virus would be roughly 35 TIMES more likely to kill you.

Again - panic is excessive. But very legitimate concern? Absolutely.

It is the potential for widespread transmission that is the real concern as CalebJ points out that is what is causing all the commotion. This isn't so much about the odds of any one individual recovering from the virus as it is the impact on our population as a whole. To put it in perspective, if as many people get the coronavirus as gets the regular flu every year then more people could die than our war dead from WWI, WWII, Korea, Vietnam and the Middle East combined.
It wouldn't be prudent for public health officials not to be gearing up for a pandemic. Let's hope the virus fades away and we can all look back and say we dodged a bullet.

[Puddlefish]

Gee,I hope you're not calling me a grumpy old man who thinks he is immune to illness.I just got over an upper respiratory infection and it was no fun but it disturbs me that we are not discussing the elephant in the room which is plain old influenza.It has killed over 16,000 people and the press is about to cause a pure panic over Corona virus?Sure,it could get bad,but so far from what I read the average person has over a 98% chance of recovery.I will take those odds!
Don't take my word for it though.Here's a quote from Dr. Drew https://www.dailywire.com/news/dr-drew-media-needs-to-shut-up-about-coronavirus-youre-more-likely-to-die-of-influenza

No, I addressed that issue because it's been posted before, on WhiteBlaze. I spoke with a guy yesterday on another forum who literally said, and I quote, "I only wash my hands leaving the bathroom when someone is there watching, otherwise, they treat me like Typhoid Mary." Maybe he was being cleverly ironic, but I didn't get that impression.

You're wrong about "no one is talking about the flu." A whole lot of news sources and forums and politicians even are pushing the agenda, "but whatabout the flu!" Worrying about the flu, is a red herring. We may as well say, Heart Disease, and Cancer are the greatest causes of death... why is everyone talking about ... diabetes. We have the ability to discuss multiple issues and multiple conversations about different things. It's not one or the other, or this one is at the moment a greater killer. We should know how to mitigate the risks of heart disease, diabetes and how to detect cancer, and the more common flu already. We can still discuss these things, all the while discussing the the warning signs and precautions to take about a strain of virus that's showing both a greater risk of infection and is more deadly on a percentage basis than the flu's that we've seen before.

As a general rule, whenever someone leads with "why isn't the media talking about"... it means that the media is talking about it extensively, and the person saying it relies on too few sources of information. Your Dr. Drew is selling advertising with his "edgy" opinion.

So, sure, we can talk about the standard version of the flu as well. But, we know all about that. Old people and young people will die of it, and it's near impossible to save them because too many of them don't take precautions, or the people around them don't take precautions. "Take precautions" is what I'm selling here, and it applies to all kinds of illnesses.

[Alligator]

Hey CalebJ!We finally agree on something! I'm not ready to panic yet over something that might happen but has not yet happened.I won't press my panic button until it's absolutely necessary because it won't do any good any way.And,yes,I understand COVID-19 is exponentially more deadly than influenza but a 98% recovery rate is still pretty good by me.

FWIW,my grandfather died of Spanish Flu in the pandemic of 1918-1920 that killed 100 million people worldwide.
Here's a little statistical info on epidemics and pandemics.I don't know how I managed to miss the 2009 scare or if I simply have forgotten it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemicsIf your listed age is correct, you have around a 1 in 30 chance of dying if you become ill with the virus. The 60-69 year old age class has a 3.6% mortality rate in a recent analysis. The mortality rate is similar to the Spanish flu but Spanish flu had a bigger impact on young adults.

[TNhiker]

Actually,I am wondering why nobody in the media has reported that over 16,000 Americans have died from influenza




as puddlefish stated—“you are wrong” about this....

ill add in “quite wrong”.....


the news organization that I work for, while we mainly have been reporting flu
deaths in our viewing area, we have also reported national numbers.....

[PatmanTN]

Doesn't seem easy to predict. It might be a good time to be away from civilization, but not sure how smart it would be to sleep in shelters.

Anyone thinking about this other than me?

IMO , hikers are nearly always wise to avoid the shelters when possible. Last December I contracted noro-virus during a week long section. I didn't sleep in the shelters, but used the benches and tables for convenient meal prep rather than mess with the several inches of snow base where I was at. I encountered so many sick hikers coming and going in each direction, that it wasn't a huge surprise. I spent my last couple days on the trail striving hard to not defecate or vomit on myself. Sadly, I wasn't entirely successful.

My vote is avoid the shelters regardless. But, just don't get sick at my favorite camps.....:)

[Nolan "Guido" Jordan]

Ummmmm. Back to the main question.

Yes. I have been thinking about it, but so far the men that have died in the US had health problems before they were infected.

If everyone has a clean immune system, practices good hygiene, and doesn't share germs, then most likely it's not something that we have to worry about.

It's probably smart to avoid shelters anyway, especially when you think you might be sick. It's a lot easier to make others sick when you're sneezing and coughing close to others. This goes for any type of illness. I understand this is common sense, but the reason I'm saying this again is if you make it obvious to other hikers that you are trying to hide your sickness, then that's going to ruin each other's experiences on the trail. Camping would be more of trying to "stay away from this particular hiker because it looks like he's sick" and less of an enjoyable time in the wilderness. I would hate for an adventure to turn that way. Also, our main concern should not be to stay away from this "sick person" to protect our physical being, but rather we should show care and love to that person too. For example, offer him food or/and water, keeping in touch with him to make he's feeling well, and even try to start a conversation or make a friendship with him/her.

Anyway, I guarantee that the coronavirus won't wipe out the entire planet just because the media acts like it is. :D

[Paleolith54]

Actually,I am wondering why nobody in the media has reported that over 16,000 Americans have died from influenza so far but only one death reported from Corona Virus and I think less than a 100 or so confirmed cases.................meanwhile,the surgeon general recommends you not buy the masks as they will do you no good but all hospital personnel will be using them.......

Your best bet is to keep your hands clean and stay away from people who are coughing.

I've seen all these points multiple times in news reports.

[Nolan "Guido" Jordan]

as puddlefish stated—“you are wrong” about this....

ill add in “quite wrong”.....


the news organization that I work for, while we mainly have been reporting flu
deaths in our viewing area, we have also reported national numbers.....

How many people have died from the flu so far this season? How many have died from pneumonia?

[CalebJ]

How many people have died from the flu so far this season? How many have died from pneumonia?
If your point is that those numbers should be discussed, the post you quoted made it clear that those numbers are going out on the news regularly.
If you legitimately want to know the numbers, a simple search would provide them far faster than asking on a forum.

[Slo-go'en]

I have a trip on Amtrak from DC to FL and back early April, then start hiking SOBO. I figure that's about when this will peak. Pray for me :) I always seem to pick up something on that train ride.

[peakbagger]

Be careful on the statistics. The various fatality rates are based on a third world country in urban areas with known long term poor air quality which impact pulmonary function. Add in that 50% of the males in china smoke (2% of the females). The Chinese military branches fund s some of their budget by owning the distribution rights to cigarette distribution of major and minor brands. CV-19 is a respiratory disease and the double risk of poor air quality and heavy smoking means respiratory issues are a major risk factor to the Chinese population. Most reports to date are those dying have pre-existing conditions. The US smoking rate incidentally is around 15%. There is also a big debate that the number of folks who actually have caught it are far higher than reported as even in the US the kits to monitor the virus are just getting out into the population. These two factors tend to point to lower fatality rate. Thru hikers have had to get practice over the last several years for Noro-virus a lot of the recommendations for prevention of Noro virus seem to line up with CV-19.

Not many thruhikers with COPD, asthma, and coronary issues, there are a few smokers but expect they still would test out real well on Pulmonary Function Test. For those over 55 there is Pneumonia Vaccine that hopefully protects against a secondary bacterial pneumonia that likes to swoop in when someone is sick with other lung issues.

If on the other hand they start calling it Captain Trips, its time to head to Boulder Colorado, keep an eye out for an elderly black woman in a rocking chair on porch and avoid Vegas ;) (a literary reference to Stephen Kings The Stand).

[Nolan "Guido" Jordan]

If your point is that those numbers should be discussed, the post you quoted made it clear that those numbers are going out on the news regularly.
If you legitimately want to know the numbers, a simple search would provide them far faster than asking on a forum.

I know how many people have died from those. I was just wondering from TNhiker's perspective since he works for a news establishment, and we both live in the same area. I don't aim to spring up any arguments though.

[TNhiker]

If your point is that those numbers should be discussed, the post you quoted made it clear that those numbers are going out on the news regularly.
If you legitimately want to know the numbers, a simple search would provide them far faster than asking on a forum.



I believe he is trying to make a “the media is wrong with their fake news reporting” or something
along those lines or whatnot......

and you are correct—-the google machine will easy bring up those numbers....


I find it interesting after his statement of “Ummmmm. Back to the main question.”

[FlyPaper]

Be careful on the statistics. The various fatality rates are based on a third world country in urban areas with known long term poor air quality which impact pulmonary function. Add in that 50% of the males in china smoke (2% of the females). The Chinese military branches fund s some of their budget by owning the distribution rights to cigarette distribution of major and minor brands. CV-19 is a respiratory disease and the double risk of poor air quality and heavy smoking means respiratory issues are a major risk factor to the Chinese population. Most reports to date are those dying have pre-existing conditions. The US smoking rate incidentally is around 15%. There is also a big debate that the number of folks who actually have caught it are far higher than reported as even in the US the kits to monitor the virus are just getting out into the population. These two factors tend to point to lower fatality rate. Thru hikers have had to get practice over the last several years for Noro-virus a lot of the recommendations for prevention of Noro virus seem to line up with CV-19.

Not many thruhikers with COPD, asthma, and coronary issues, there are a few smokers but expect they still would test out real well on Pulmonary Function Test. For those over 55 there is Pneumonia Vaccine that hopefully protects against a secondary bacterial pneumonia that likes to swoop in when someone is sick with other lung issues.

If on the other hand they start calling it Captain Trips, its time to head to Boulder Colorado, keep an eye out for an elderly black woman in a rocking chair on porch and avoid Vegas ;) (a literary reference to Stephen Kings The Stand).

Great perspective. I've also wondered about smoking affects on mortality with CV. The official stats show males die more frequently than females, but so far I have not found any official sources nor major news outlets bring up the smoking coloration possibility. Also, I wonder if the normal flu season cycles will soon reign in the CV in the northern hemisphere.

But the concern is not just about ones individual odds of coming out fine. If !% of the US dies, it will bring about social upheaval that will affect everything. Perhaps some will hit the trails to avoid civilization and the trails will be more crowded.

[Alligator]

Be careful on the statistics. The various fatality rates are based on a third world country in urban areas with known long term poor air quality which impact pulmonary function. Add in that 50% of the males in china smoke (2% of the females). The Chinese military branches fund s some of their budget by owning the distribution rights to cigarette distribution of major and minor brands. CV-19 is a respiratory disease and the double risk of poor air quality and heavy smoking means respiratory issues are a major risk factor to the Chinese population. Most reports to date are those dying have pre-existing conditions. The US smoking rate incidentally is around 15%. There is also a big debate that the number of folks who actually have caught it are far higher than reported as even in the US the kits to monitor the virus are just getting out into the population. These two factors tend to point to lower fatality rate. Thru hikers have had to get practice over the last several years for Noro-virus a lot of the recommendations for prevention of Noro virus seem to line up with CV-19.

Not many thruhikers with COPD, asthma, and coronary issues, there are a few smokers but expect they still would test out real well on Pulmonary Function Test. For those over 55 there is Pneumonia Vaccine that hopefully protects against a secondary bacterial pneumonia that likes to swoop in when someone is sick with other lung issues.

If on the other hand they start calling it Captain Trips, its time to head to Boulder Colorado, keep an eye out for an elderly black woman in a rocking chair on porch and avoid Vegas ;) (a literary reference to Stephen Kings The Stand).Italy had just 3 travel related cases until 2/22, when they picked up 6 more. That was 10 days ago. They have 1682 cases and 35 fatalities as of 3/2, a 2% fatality rate. It also takes 2-8 weeks (on average) from onset until death, but only 5 days to incubate. The number of deaths will be lagging behind the rate of new cases, suppressing the case fatality rate until spread slows. This is northern Italy where all the travelers are visiting. Guess that Mediterranean diet isn't so healthy?

There's going to be far fewer internationals on the trail is my guess.

[futureatwalker]

I was wondering the same thing: how might the coronavirus affect the trail (experience) this year?

It's early days, so of course at this point we can only speculate, but here are mine..

1) I think that, based on the recent norovirus outbreaks each year, thru-hikers will not be immune. I suspect that norovirus is more catchy than coronavirus (but I'm sure someone can correct me on this), however.

2) The effects of coronavirus will depend likely be mild for most hikers, because most are young. For older hikers, there may be more of an issue, but I suspect that thru-hikers tend to be in good underlying health to be out there. I think the last place I'd like to be is in a nursing home when this strikes.

3) My reading of the information that's out there would suggest that coronavirus is 10 to 20x more lethal than the normal flu. So, I think it's right to be concerned. Worst-case estimates here in the U.K. are that it could affect 40-70% of the population, which would put a lot of people in the hospital.

In short, I could imagine that some people will be forced off the trail with coronavirus, but because of the demographics (and the ease of social-distancing), the impact may not be dramatic.

[Five Tango]

Here's more info fresh off the press. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who-is-getting-sick-and-how-sick-a-breakdown-of-coronavirus-risk-by-demographic-factors/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/health/coronavirus-flu.html

[Five Tango]

If your listed age is correct, you have around a 1 in 30 chance of dying if you become ill with the virus. The 60-69 year old age class has a 3.6% mortality rate in a recent analysis. The mortality rate is similar to the Spanish flu but Spanish flu had a bigger impact on young adults.

Based on your facts then,I would have a 29 out of 30 chance of survival.No?

[lonehiker]

I'm wondering how it feels to live paranoid.

[CalebJ]

I'm wondering how it feels to live paranoid.
I suspect most people in this thread do no such thing. Discussing something is not the same thing as paranoia.

[Five Tango]

I'm wondering how it feels to live paranoid.

No paranoia here,pal,just living in reality.People are about to freak out because of CV concerns.I would like to point out though that if I could get 29/30 odds of winning on a dice table in Vegas today I would be packing my bags and head to the airport right now.................

[JPritch]

Would you play Russian Roulette with those odds, say with a $100,000 payout?

[FlyPaper]

No paranoia here,pal,just living in reality.People are about to freak out because of CV concerns.I would like to point out though that if I could get 29/30 odds of winning on a dice table in Vegas today I would be packing my bags and head to the airport right now.................

Just imagine a theme park ride where 1 out of every 30 riders died. Or even 1 out of 100. Probably some would volunteer to ride, but not me and not my kids.

Call it paranoia or call it prudent. That kind of odds for a disease I have a high chance of getting gets my attention and is something that one might reasonably want to discuss. For those too busy discussing the latest on Meghan Markle to waste their time with Coronavirus paranoia, I accept that you have different interests.

[Puddlefish]

Would you play Russian Roulette with those odds, say with a $100,000 payout?

The better analogy would be playing with a zero dollar payout. Last I heard, no one is paying cash money for surviving Coronavirus. All you get is bragging rights.

[TexasBob]

I'm wondering how it feels to live paranoid.

Not paranoid. Living in the Houston area, this reminds me of when there is a hurricane in the Gulf and they are not sure where it is going to go. You might get clobbered or it might not be a problem at all but you need to be aware and pay attention to what is going on.

[Five Tango]

You guys are making way too much out of this.My point is that even if you or I get CV,the chances of survival are in our favor;especially if you have no other major medical issues currently.It's not a death sentence.

[Paleolith54]

You guys are making way too much out of this.My point is that even if you or I get CV,the chances of survival are in our favor;especially if you have no other major medical issues currently.It's not a death sentence.

Exactly!

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to learn as we move along (people keep forgetting that we are in the very early stages of this) that the mortality rate is actually even lower than it now appears to be. It's becoming increasingly obvious that there are lots of people who have the virus but exhibit either no symptoms or mild ones and seem to be recovering quite quickly, so the numerator is probably much larger than we currently understand.

[Puddlefish]

You guys are making way too much out of this.My point is that even if you or I get CV,the chances of survival are in our favor;especially if you have no other major medical issues currently.It's not a death sentence.

... and my point remains. It may not be a death sentence for you... but it may be a death sentence for the old person/young person you pass it along to. It may also trash your hiking season financially and timewise... when you have to recover in a hospital. You may not care if you roll the dice for a 1 in 30 chance of living, but don't roll the dice for the people around you.

[SawnieRobertson]

Good morning, All. I have found this thread of particular interest because I believe that there are actions to take at this time. Also, it has been reassuring to read that you who have posted are truly concerned not only about giving your hands a soap bath w-h-e-n-e-v-e-r (and don't forget above your wrists). You are weighing the advisability of choosing to stay at shelters while on your hikes. Thank you. I agree for myriad reasons that can be found throughout WB posts. I do want to say though that in my short life I have survived low attendance in school due to colds and annual cases of flu. Pneumonia almost did away with me at age 17 but was frustrated by what was than called miracle drugs. (I was so far gone by that time that I was not able and have never been able to recall what transpired over the 24 hours before I woke up post injections of the wonder drug. Bronchitis became an annual event during the 1980s and 90s until I figured out that the family cat needed to go because maybe allergy to cats was the culprit. Since then I have been basically cold and flu free (20 years or so) as long as I evaluated others at groceries and such as though I were walking through a lion-infested jungle. So. what point am I trying to make? First, I may not make it through this siege. Yesterday I read that 15% of the people in my age group who contract this flu will NOT survive it. Still, I am going shopping for the OTCs that are decongestants, Tylenol for Arthritis, echinacea tea, and, if any is left, the MH freeze-dried meals that I actually like, and sufficient ZONE bars to take care of nutrients and my sweet tooth for 1 month. All can be used when this fright is behind me if I once again can walk on the trail for long distances, even though at my age 5 miles would be an amazing feat. If you read all of this, bless you, but most of all, listen to the heads up and take care of yourselves.

[Five Tango]

... and my point remains. It may not be a death sentence for you... but it may be a death sentence for the old person/young person you pass it along to. It may also trash your hiking season financially and timewise... when you have to recover in a hospital. You may not care if you roll the dice for a 1 in 30 chance of living, but don't roll the dice for the people around you.

Oh,OK,now that we have established that transmission of CV is apparently my fault,what would you have me do?

[FlyPaper]

Good morning, All. I have found this thread of particular interest because I believe that there are actions to take at this time. Also, it has been reassuring to read that you who have posted are truly concerned not only about giving your hands a soap bath w-h-e-n-e-v-e-r (and don't forget above your wrists). You are weighing the advisability of choosing to stay at shelters while on your hikes. Thank you. I agree for myriad reasons that can be found throughout WB posts. I do want to say though that in my short life I have survived low attendance in school due to colds and annual cases of flu. Pneumonia almost did away with me at age 17 but was frustrated by what was than called miracle drugs. (I was so far gone by that time that I was not able and have never been able to recall what transpired over the 24 hours before I woke up post injections of the wonder drug. Bronchitis became an annual event during the 1980s and 90s until I figured out that the family cat needed to go because maybe allergy to cats was the culprit. Since then I have been basically cold and flu free (20 years or so) as long as I evaluated others at groceries and such as though I were walking through a lion-infested jungle. So. what point am I trying to make? First, I may not make it through this siege. Yesterday I read that 15% of the people in my age group who contract this flu will NOT survive it. Still, I am going shopping for the OTCs that are decongestants, Tylenol for Arthritis, echinacea tea, and, if any is left, the MH freeze-dried meals that I actually like, and sufficient ZONE bars to take care of nutrients and my sweet tooth for 1 month. All can be used when this fright is behind me if I once again can walk on the trail for long distances, even though at my age 5 miles would be an amazing feat. If you read all of this, bless you, but most of all, listen to the heads up and take care of yourselves.

Thanks for weighing in. One thing I've pondered even before the CV outbreak is the consequences of passing along the flu. Last time I had the flu, it was no big deal for me. But I don't know who may have caught it from me. Perhaps I passed it along to a couple of strangers, who passed it along to others where someone down that line eventually died. Although I wouldn't consider this to have been a moral failure on my part, it is something to consider and even more so with CV. Both my parents and my in-laws are old enough and in bad enough health to be at serious risk. It may be a time that the younger members of the family work to ensure our aged parents can stay clear of the virus. Perhaps we can do their shopping (and stay away from direct contact ourselves).

But there are numerous affects of this soon to be declared pandemic that don't solely pertain to our chance of survival. For example, if you were about to start a thru-hike and planned on purchasing hand-sanitizer, good luck finding it in the stores. If you were planning on buying freeze-dried meals, good luck with that too. That has nothing to do with paranoia, but is a simple, practical logistical concern related to hiking.

[Five Tango]

Good morning, All. I have found this thread of particular interest because I believe that there are actions to take at this time. Also, it has been reassuring to read that you who have posted are truly concerned not only about giving your hands a soap bath w-h-e-n-e-v-e-r (and don't forget above your wrists). You are weighing the advisability of choosing to stay at shelters while on your hikes. Thank you. I agree for myriad reasons that can be found throughout WB posts. I do want to say though that in my short life I have survived low attendance in school due to colds and annual cases of flu. Pneumonia almost did away with me at age 17 but was frustrated by what was than called miracle drugs. (I was so far gone by that time that I was not able and have never been able to recall what transpired over the 24 hours before I woke up post injections of the wonder drug. Bronchitis became an annual event during the 1980s and 90s until I figured out that the family cat needed to go because maybe allergy to cats was the culprit. Since then I have been basically cold and flu free (20 years or so) as long as I evaluated others at groceries and such as though I were walking through a lion-infested jungle. So. what point am I trying to make? First, I may not make it through this siege. Yesterday I read that 15% of the people in my age group who contract this flu will NOT survive it. Still, I am going shopping for the OTCs that are decongestants, Tylenol for Arthritis, echinacea tea, and, if any is left, the MH freeze-dried meals that I actually like, and sufficient ZONE bars to take care of nutrients and my sweet tooth for 1 month. All can be used when this fright is behind me if I once again can walk on the trail for long distances, even though at my age 5 miles would be an amazing feat. If you read all of this, bless you, but most of all, listen to the heads up and take care of yourselves.

I hope you have friends or family that could do your shopping for you.Best recourse during flu season is to avoid people and public places as much as possible.Some of the grocery stores in my area will pull your grocery list for you and have it ready for curbside pickup.My aunt used to do that.Best of luck to you.

[Alligator]

You guys are making way too much out of this.My point is that even if you or I get CV,the chances of survival are in our favor;especially if you have no other major medical issues currently.It's not a death sentence.Perhaps our concerns are not for ourselves but for those around us who we love?

Consider this though. There's a room that if you enter you have a 1 in 28 (closer to 3.6%) of dying. What would you go in the room for? Don't answer right away, you've got time to think about it. A thoughtful response might consider what other activities or risks have this high a level of mortality and whether you've avoided those in the past. In other words consider the risk in its proper contex.

With a 1 in 28 probability, if you rolled the dice so to speak 28 times, you'd expect one time for a "success" to happen. That would be any one of those 28 tries.

Nothing wrong with a positive outlook but perspective is important too.

[Five Tango]

Perhaps our concerns are not for ourselves but for those around us who we love?

Consider this though. There's a room that if you enter you have a 1 in 28 (closer to 3.6%) of dying. What would you go in the room for? Don't answer right away, you've got time to think about it. A thoughtful response might consider what other activities or risks have this high a level of mortality and whether you've avoided those in the past. In other words consider the risk in its proper contex.

With a 1 in 28 probability, if you rolled the dice so to speak 28 times, you'd expect one time for a "success" to happen. That would be any one of those 28 tries.

Nothing wrong with a positive outlook but perspective is important too.

Here's my answer to your question.Going into the room does not mean that I have a one in twenty eight chance of dying because it may just be that I am protected by my immune system which might well not be compromised
at every exposure.Additionally,every move we have ever made contains some element of risk.It always has and it always will.

That said,I would enter as few rooms as necessary to live my life the way I want which is in faith,not fear.

[Puddlefish]

Here's my answer to your question.Going into the room does not mean that I have a one in twenty eight chance of dying because it may just be that I am protected by my immune system which might well not be compromised
at every exposure.Additionally,every move we have ever made contains some element of risk.It always has and it always will.

That said,I would enter as few rooms as necessary to live my life the way I want which is in faith,not fear.

Fine, you went into that room, how very brave of you. You NOW may or may not be carrying a virus that can be transmitted to people outside the room. I'm saying it's selfish to not come out of that room and at least wash your hands before strolling into a bigger crowd of strangers. You may now want to monitor yourself for coughs and fevers, before entering a populated area.

No one on the internet cares how brave you are. You started in this thread with a "whataboutism" question. Fine, you were informed why the question wasn't overly pertinent. You then posted two informative links, and I thought "great, this guy gets it." You then started with some poor statistical analysis of odds, and the inner mathematician in me cringed.

I'm saying, its not about you, it's about large groups of people with a common interest (the trail and nature) sharing a communal space. What do I want you do do? I stated that. I want you to wash your hands, and if you could stop spreading misinformation and poor statistical analysis as well, that would be great.

[billreillyjr]

Stock up on hand sanitizer,there's a shortage,at least in NYC

[FlyPaper]

Here's my answer to your question.Going into the room does not mean that I have a one in twenty eight chance of dying because it may just be that I am protected by my immune system which might well not be compromised
at every exposure.Additionally,every move we have ever made contains some element of risk.It always has and it always will.

That said,I would enter as few rooms as necessary to live my life the way I want which is in faith,not fear.

Alligator was just using an analogy. The 1 in 28 reference was not meant to imply that if you enter a room with a Coronavirus patient you have a 1 in 28 chance of dying. It is merely a thought experiment to consider what the implications of catching Coronavirus would mean to you.

We could answer the question by considering different things. For example, would I travel to visit my parents if that gave me a 1 in 28 chance of dying? (Remember, this is just an analogy. In this analogy, it doesn't matter that our parents are at more risk from Coronavirus than us because this analogy is only about the odds). Would I go hiking this year if 1 in 28 hikers were being killed on the trail? No! Would I go hiking this year if 1 in 100,000 hikers were being killed? Yes. Would I go to a concert with 1 in 28 odds? No! Would I go buy groceries? Yes, but I'd probably stock up more and make fewer trips.

Personally, I've never been a germ-a-phobe. I don't avoid contact with people who have colds and I don't worry too much about staying home if I have a mild illness. But increasing risk can change things. Personally, I'll be washing hands a lot more and I've already been practicing to avoid touching my face with unwashed hands.

[Five Tango]

Fine, you went into that room, how very brave of you. You NOW may or may not be carrying a virus that can be transmitted to people outside the room. I'm saying it's selfish to not come out of that room and at least wash your hands before strolling into a bigger crowd of strangers. You may now want to monitor yourself for coughs and fevers, before entering a populated area.



No one on the internet cares how brave you are. You started in this thread with a "whataboutism" question. Fine, you were informed why the question wasn't overly pertinent. You then posted two informative links, and I thought "great, this guy gets it." You then started with some poor statistical analysis of odds, and the inner mathematician in me cringed.

I'm saying, its not about you, it's about large groups of people with a common interest (the trail and nature) sharing a communal space. What do I want you do do? I stated that. I want you to wash your hands, and if you could stop spreading misinformation and poor statistical analysis as well, that would be great.

Why don't you prove for us mathematically that a 40% chance of rain doesn't mean that there is a 60% chance it won't?I don't care how brilliant you think you are,you can't have it both ways.

Since you don't know me,you have no idea how clean my hands are or what my hygienic practices are or always have been but I would put them up against yours and anyone else's.

All the links I have posted were from reputable sources to the best of my knowledge.

For the record,I don't consider myself any braver than anyone else.

Have a nice day.

[CalebJ]

Why don't you prove for us mathematically that a 40% chance of rain doesn't mean that there is a 60% chance it won't?I don't care how brilliant you think you are,you can't have it both ways.

What on earth are you talking about? No one said anything -at all- resembling that bizarre twist of math you just implied.

[Puddlefish]

Why don't you prove for us mathematically that a 40% chance of rain doesn't mean that there is a 60% chance it won't?I don't care how brilliant you think you are,you can't have it both ways.

Since you don't know me,you have no idea how clean my hands are or what my hygienic practices are or always have been but I would put them up against yours and anyone else's.

All the links I have posted were from reputable sources to the best of my knowledge.

For the record,I don't consider myself any braver than anyone else.

Have a nice day.

The point of statistics is about trends over populations. The applicability to the individual is less important. I don't have time to teach you Statistics 101 on this forum. It's not about you. Wash your hands and be a responsible citizen, or don't.

Your chance of surviving is 29 of 30... but that is only if you catch the virus. I'm suggesting to you that you try not to catch the virus in the first place. If you don't catch the virus, your odds of not dying (to the virus) rise to 30 out of 30. Take those odds to Vegas and you can play all night. Take your 29 of 30 odds to Vegas, and you can play until ... you die.

[Five Tango]

You guys crack me up.Go entertain yourselves.

[TexasBob]

You guys are making way too much out of this.My point is that even if you or I get CV,the chances of survival are in our favor;especially if you have no other major medical issues currently.It's not a death sentence.


....I'm saying, its not about you, it's about large groups of people ........

Five Tango is looking at the problem from the point of view of one individual and is right that he has a good chance of getting over coronavirus if he was unlucky enough to get it. Puddlefish is looking at the problem from the point of view of the population as a whole and from a public health standpoint he is right that this isn't about a single individual. As he and others have stated we are citizens of a larger society need to look beyond our own self interest to consider what is right for those around us as well. Just two people looking at a problem from two different aspects.

[Ocallaghan]

I'm guessing any kind of tourist group activities will suffer because having many people from various places only increases the chance of someone being infected.

[JNI64]

Five Tango is looking at the problem from the point of view of one individual and is right that he has a good chance of getting over coronavirus if he was unlucky enough to get it. Puddlefish is looking at the problem from the point of view of the population as a whole and from a public health standpoint he is right that this isn't about a single individual. As he and others have stated we are citizens of a larger society need to look beyond our own self interest to consider what is right for those around us as well. Just two people looking at a problem from two different aspects.

Yep that's all there's to that. This virus as of now isn't gonna stop next section hike, the end of may Erwin to Hampton and I don't use shelters. But this virus is stopping me from taking a bus trip to new York with a couple friends that we were going do this spring.

[irishkat]

98 percent chance of recovery ... but don’t forget 20 percent chance of requiring hospitalization to achieve that recovery:(

[irishkat]

My daughter’s medical school (UPenn) says the Covid-19 virus will be widespread in the US in 7 days. Trains may not be running in April...

[Slo-go'en]

My daughter’s medical school (UPenn) says the Covid-19 virus will be widespread in the US in 7 days. Trains may not be running in April...

They better give me a refund then!

[Miner]

Dehydrated food like Mountain House and hand sanitizer are becoming hard to find, so there is already an impact on hikers. There are people trying to resell at a huge markeup. If the fears don't pan out in the same way with SARs a couple of years ago, in a few months there will be some bargains to be had on eBay.

[CalebJ]

Dehydrated food like Mountain House and hand sanitizer are becoming hard to find, so there is already an impact on hikers. There are people trying to resell at a huge markeup. If the fears don't pan out in the same way with SARs a couple of years ago, in a few months there will be some bargains to be had on eBay.

I'm heading out to New Hampshire on Friday with three other guys. If we hadn't pre-purchased the food for the trip we'd definitely be scrambling.

[gpburdelljr]

You probably interact with fewer people on the trail than you do in normal life in the city. Use common sense. Practice good hygiene by washing your hands when appropriate. Don’t shake hands with people. Avoid shelters. Hand sanitizer may be in short supply, but washing your hands with soap is more effective anyway.

[peakbagger]

Don't need hand sanitizer if you have use alcohol with stove fuel. Some folks have burned hand sanitizer in pinch although its easy to separate (but still toxic to drink).

One minor upgrade to handwashing a nurse told me once, don't wear a wrist watch. There are cracks and crevices in the bands and on the watch that will act as reservoir for the nasties.

[T.S.Kobzol]

That's easy: Everyone will hike SOBO :-) to avoid he crowds.


Doesn't seem easy to predict. It might be a good time to be away from civilization, but not sure how smart it would be to sleep in shelters.

Anyone thinking about this other than me?

[gpburdelljr]

That's easy: Everyone will hike SOBO :-) to avoid he crowds.
Or a flip-flop to avoid the crowds.

[Puddlefish]

I wonder if the trail will get trashed this year. With more people avoiding shelters the stealth camping spots will get slammed, and hardened and expanded too close to the trail and water sources. Maybe I'm just being negative.

[Slo-go'en]

I wonder if the trail will get trashed this year. With more people avoiding shelters the stealth camping spots will get slammed, and hardened and expanded too close to the trail and water sources. Maybe I'm just being negative.

I don't think people will radically change their behavior. I know I'm not. It's possible the more marginal sites will see more use, which might improve them. The trail gets a little more trashed every year.

Sleeping in a crowded shelter might not be the best idea for a while. Anyone just getting on the trail or coming back from town for that matter, could be a potential carrier and not know it yet.

But that's no reason to avoid the shelter area. Casual contact in an open environment is likely risk free, just remember to do fist bump greetings. The norovirus is still a threat.

[gpburdelljr]

I wouldn’t even do a fist bump. If someone has norovirus, or coronavirus, on their palms, then they likely have it on the backs of their hands and fingers.

[Five Tango]

I wouldn’t even do a fist bump. If someone has norovirus, or coronavirus, on their palms, then they likely have it on the backs of their hands and fingers.

We need a new custom."Hi,you don't want MY cooties" has been working fine for me lately.:banana

[FreeGoldRush]

You come across a surprising number of people on a thru hike. Without corona virus you have to take initiative to avoid getting sick. But with corona virus... oh my. Towns and hostels will be the danger zone for this year’s hikers.

[JNI64]

I wouldn’t even do a fist bump. If someone has norovirus, or coronavirus, on their palms, then they likely have it on the backs of their hands and fingers.

Elbow bump , yep should be safe........right?

[Five Tango]

At some point in time we really need to adopt some sort of socially acceptable greeting that does not involve touching other people.What do other cultures do?

[Traveler]

"Hail and greetings fellow biped" said with fingers spread in Spockesque fashion may replace the handshake, high-five, and the ever popular fist and elbow bump over the next few months. Until then, more practical common sense approaches can be observed that helps avoid a host of maladies like Norovirus along the trail. On a practical note, the latter is perhaps more of a concern than the former when it comes to illness, however having a new viral infection in the population is always a concern given the history of such things. As a matter of practice (now habit) for a lot of people who prefer tread ways to highways, simple measures can help reduce exposure to illnesses and include:

- Do not allow anyone to put their hands into your food like snacks in baggies and don't share water from the same containers.
- Whenever possible avoid using surfaces commonly used by others in camping areas or shelters to prepare food or work on gear.
- Wash hands prior to food preparation, following use of a privy/cathole, contact with commonly handled surfaces like railings, table tops, and cleaning up after dogs.
- Do not count on hand sanitizers to work well, nothing works better than a little soap and water to wash away things that can make you sick.
- Do not consume food from others unless its in an original package (I don't share food from others even if its in original wrapping or cooked given the potential consequences).
- Do not pet dogs that are not yours and keep food/water and related containers shielded from inquisitive noses and sampling tongues.

Most of the time I am alone when hiking, but when I do run into others I am usually polite if not openly friendly but I do not have an overwhelming desire to shake hands or otherwise touch fellow hikers, their pets, or share their food. That said, places where people congregate like shelters and mandated camping areas present the highest risk for the unwary. While there are no guarantees, basic practices like these may seem inconvenient but are more likely to keep one from succumbing to a Norovirus or other illness than .

Stay healthy out there!

[Slo-go'en]

My Dad called last night and (strongly) suggested I not go visit for his birthday in April this year. Seeing I travel by bus and train to Florida and him being 97, probably a good idea. I still think the pandemic will peak about then. Probably a lot of others with travel plans comming up soon with similar thoughts. Hope I can get a refund for my train tickets!

I typically visit my Dad before starting a hike, now I can change the timing to earlier or later. If I start April 1 instead of April 18 from Harpers, I think I can make Trail Days :) I wonder if the virus will impact Trail Days any?

[John B]

I don't think that we should worry much about Covid-19. Last night in an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News, President Trump said that the 3-4% mortality rate is a false number, and that it's really a fraction of 1%. He also said that hundreds of thousands of people infected with covid-19 get better just by sitting around or going to work. So based on this, it seems that everything is ok.

[peakbagger]

I don't think that we should worry much about Covid-19. Last night in an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News, President Trump said that the 3-4% mortality rate is a false number, and that it's really a fraction of 1%. He also said that hundreds of thousands of people infected with covid-19 get better just by sitting around or going to work. So based on this, it seems that everything is ok.

I have some prime waterfront house lots for sale in Florida if you believe that source ;)

[TexasBob]

He also said that hundreds of thousands of people infected with covid-19 get better just by sitting around or going to work...........

A really bad plan.

[greensleep]

I don't think that we should worry much about Covid-19. Last night in an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News, President Trump said that the 3-4% mortality rate is a false number, and that it's really a fraction of 1%. He also said that hundreds of thousands of people infected with covid-19 get better just by sitting around or going to work. So based on this, it seems that everything is ok.

This is sarcasm, right? I think I'll stick with the experts in the field of communicable disease and virologists.

[AsoloBootsSuk]

At some point in time we really need to adopt some sort of socially acceptable greeting that does not involve touching other people.What do other cultures do?

You could try folding your hands together in a praying position and bowing to avoid the awkwardness of dodging a hand shake.

[Five Tango]

This is sarcasm, right? I think I'll stick with the experts in the field of communicable disease and virologists.

I didn't see it happen but I am picking up corroborating reports on huffington post and mother jones if you put stock in them as unbiased news sources.

However,I did see an interview with a CV victim who was on a cruise ship,woke up on the airplane ride home with a 103 plus fever,but now reports that it feels like a pretty mild cold.He is at the University of Nebraska being tested daily in qurantine.

BUT HE AND HIS FAMILY ARE NOW RECEIVING DEATH THREATS! Yes,that's what he said.

[CalebJ]

I don't think that we should worry much about Covid-19. Last night in an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News, President Trump said that the 3-4% mortality rate is a false number, and that it's really a fraction of 1%. He also said that hundreds of thousands of people infected with covid-19 get better just by sitting around or going to work. So based on this, it seems that everything is ok.

This is sarcasm, right? I think I'll stick with the experts in the field of communicable disease and virologists.

The statements attributed to Trump on Hannity are legitimate.

"Well, I think the 3.4 percent is really a false number. Now, and this is just my hunch, and — but based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this. Because a lot people will have this and it's very mild. They'll get better very rapidly. They don't even see a doctor. They don't even call a doctor," Trump said."You never hear about those people. So you can't put them down in the category of the overall population in terms of this corona flu and — or virus. So you just can't do that," he continued. "So if, you know, we have thousands or hundreds of thousands of people that get better, just by, you know, sitting around and even going to work — some of them go to work but they get better." (https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/05/trump-disputes-coronavirus-death-rate-121892)
And I'm definitely with you on sticking with the experts.

[Alligator]

Don't spin this into politics folks.

[Five Tango]

I saw on CBS news this a.m. that the Italian government is asking the elderly to stay inside.I also realized what my stock pile of Alcohol Gel is worth after watching the news this morning,but I'm keeping it.

This situation is changing behaviors too.My wife's church suspended the "shake hands with everybody around you thing" yet they still line up to shake the minister's hand on the way out the door.

Some folks will never learn,bless their heart!

[Slugg]

I don't think that we should worry much about Covid-19. Last night in an interview with Sean Hannity on Fox News, President Trump said that the 3-4% mortality rate is a false number, and that it's really a fraction of 1%. He also said that hundreds of thousands of people infected with covid-19 get better just by sitting around or going to work. So based on this, it seems that everything is ok.

Based on his avatar, I think it's safe to assume that was sarcasm, folks.

[Five Tango]

Here's some historical info on health crises we have all survived-NOTE,source is ABC news.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/coronavirus-compares-sars-mers-recent-viral-outbreaks/story?id=69329364

[futureatwalker]

O.K., European perspective here, but it is alarming...

The data from Italy today is shocking. 1,200+ new cases in the last 24 hrs. There is talk of locking down the north of the country, with 15 million people.

[FromNH]

Especially on the trail it will be far more dangerous to poop and not wash your hands than that virus. I know I’m generalizing but given our hobby it’s safe to assume that most of us are in above average shape and that alone gives us a much better chance of survival than a poor 80 year old in a nursing home.

[couscous]

Especially on the trail it will be far more dangerous to poop and not wash your hands than that virus. I know I’m generalizing but given our hobby it’s safe to assume that most of us are in above average shape and that alone gives us a much better chance of survival than a poor 80 year old in a nursing home.
+1 CoVid-19 could have a bigger impact on Trail Days / May 15-17 / than hiking in general.

[Paleolith54]

O.K., European perspective here, but it is alarming...

The data from Italy today is shocking. 1,200+ new cases in the last 24 hrs. There is talk of locking down the north of the country, with 15 million people.

From a Reuters item on the situation there:

"National Health Institute chief Silvio Brusaferro said the average age of patients who have died was over 81. They were prevalently male and more than 80% had more than two underlying health conditions."

[Traffic Jam]

My concern isn’t about getting sick and surviving, it’s about getting sick and spreading the virus to those who are most vulnerable. It doesn’t matter how fit a person is, if they are sick even mildly, they need to stay home. People who are preparing for extended stays at home are smart.

[jurahd]

It’s not the plague. Thru hikers have strong lung apparatus. I’ve gotten the norovivrus on one hike.
Expense goes up when incapacitated. I bet smoking rolling tobacco helps, that and fist bumps. With high employment and virus hysteria looks to be a good year for loner types. Early shelters nice and quiet, an oasis in the woods even if you tent.

[Traillium]

I’m heading to the south of England for the month of May. … I hope …

If the Italian experience counts for anything, I wonder whether England will fare any better?

It’s been only weeks since Covid-19 was found in Italy. Now its government is about to put serious and significant lockdowns on northern Italy. Not quite China-strict, but certainly worth reading up on.

China may be passing through the peak of its original epidemic. That’s taken more than two months to appear, build, perhaps now peak — and then how long to fade away? …

So will Italy be locked down for the month they’re proposing? Or longer in reality?

What will happen in the UK? They’ve gone through serious public health cuts and are facing more. Will the Covid-19 epidemic be peaking in May? Will I be able to get medical treatment if I succumb? Will I be able to get out of the country? Will I face 14 days of isolation if and when I get back here to Canada?

For that matter, how will my Canada do? So far, we’ve done remarkably well, especially with our relatively close ties to China and other affected countries. Here’s hoping our decent state of preparedness and our public health system works well …

More worrisome, how will the US do, given its shocking lack of preparedness? Anyone here from
Washington State? How are the numbers progressing there?

[Night Train]

I have to say, I am not overly concerned. Pathogens (virus) are key to our evolution, this is nothing new for humans. There is no comfort zone in which we exist, we are challenged biologically to survive. Just the way it is. Zika, Swine Flu, Chikungunya, Influenza, SARS, Dengue fever, Ebola we have all lived through that.

[FreeGoldRush]

I have to say, I am not overly concerned. Pathogens (virus) are key to our evolution, this is nothing new for humans. There is no comfort zone in which we exist, we are challenged biologically to survive. Just the way it is. Zika, Swine Flu, Chikungunya, Influenza, SARS, Dengue fever, Ebola we have all lived through that.
Is this sarcasm or ignorance? This new virus will kill far more than the ones you listed. Why would you compare this to Ebola, for example? Ebola is far less contagious, and for that reason is not nearly as deadly.

[Venchka]

+1 CoVid-19 could have a bigger impact on Trail Days / May 15-17 / than hiking in general.
Hmmm! That’s near my new ‘HOOD.
I think that I will stay at home that weekend.
Be safe Y’all!
Wayne

[Durwood]

I'd much rather be in any one of the worst shelters on trail than roaming the Wally world here by AT&T (cowboys) stadium.

This type of thing only reinforces my innate desire to get some space. Remains to be seen how this might affect our AT hiker season...but I'd rather find out...out there.

Anyone know where I can get some N95 masks and sanitizer? I kid, I kid. As Wayne the Tex-pat says, "be safe, y'all".

[Leo L.]

Had been in the Sinai desert recently for 4 weeks, and was travelling back home via Israel.
All worked out fine.
But Israel closed the borders for all Austrian tourists the next day.
That had been a narrow escape! Would have had to stay in quarantaine for two more weeks...

There might be difficulties for international hikes for some months.
Friends intend to start the Camino from right at their front door the other week, we'll see how it will work out.

As a general rule, I belive that being in the outdoors is much safer virus-wise than spending time in crowds of people.
There was this famous Last True Hermit who lived in complete solitude in the woods for 27 years and never got sick, but simply stated that its the (crowds of) people who are carrying diseases.

[AsoloBootsSuk]

I don't know the science that well, but Covid-19 and Saudi oil flooding the market are deadly to my 401K

[gpburdelljr]

I don't know the science that well, but Covid-19 and Saudi oil flooding the market are deadly to my 401K
The market will recover, and your 401k along with it.

[colorado_rob]

Is this sarcasm or ignorance? This new virus will kill far more than the ones you listed.How on earth can you make this Giant Leap????? No one has any idea yet what the impact will be.

[AsoloBootsSuk]

The market will recover, and your 401k along with it.

Agree but if I were 64 plus, I'd be pulling out. Recovery could take a few years based on severity of Covid-19, the up coming election, etc. I plan to ride it out.

[4eyedbuzzard]

I don't know the science that well, but Covid-19 and Saudi oil flooding the market are deadly to my 401KOr, the market is extremely overbought/ overvalued based on historic market cap to GDP ratios (as well as P/E ratios) so any little hiccup becomes magnified and there is a flight to safety (Treasuries and corporate paper). Interest rates are being manipulated to artificial lows and what should (historically) be a fiscally conservative administration is running huge deficits on that cheap borrowed money. Workers keep pouring new money into 401(k)s, and a lot of that money must be fully invested into equities by fund managers. There's a reason Buffet is sitting on billions in cash - and he isn't buying in yet. This isn't over.

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[fancy pants]

I see lots of discussion about whether the virus itself will be a threat or not.

I think the much bigger concern for this season's thru-hikers will be the possibility of closed hostels and shuttle services & difficulty getting hitchhikes. The "social distancing" and quarantines that are likely to increase in coming months could cause a lot of logistical trouble.

[Five Tango]

Now that we have a new national/World obsession,here is a handy site that post the day to day stats by country.
Might be good information if you plan to travel internationally anytime soon.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-symptoms/#duration

[Alligator]

Now that we have a new national/World obsession,here is a handy site that post the day to day stats by country.
Might be good information if you plan to travel internationally anytime soon.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-symptoms/#durationWHO daily situation reports provide country breakdowns at https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports. For instance, Italy had 76 cases in situation report #34 and in Situation report #49, (15 days later), they have 7375 cases, 366 deaths, and the country is now closed. So no Italian thruhikers any time soon, no hiking in Italy.

[futureatwalker]

WHO daily situation reports provide country breakdowns at https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports...

Great link!

It looks like the numbers are increasing rapidly throughout Europe now.

Here in the U.K., it feels like the quiet before the storm. Our numbers are going up each day, and there are a handful of cases nearby. Still, life is normal, the schools are open, the stores well-stocked. Where I work (a school), contingency plans are being developed in case we have to work from home.

Anecdotal (twitter) accounts describe well-equipped hospitals in Italy being swamped with patients, so much so that care is almost not possible.

This is all distal to the A.T. at the moment, but could be a harbinger of what to expect in the U.S. I guess the worst-case scenario would be some type of lock-down regionally which would limit people's movements, and thus make access to the trail limited. But at that point, the situation would be so dire that hiking would likely not be a priority.

[TexasBob]

Here is what my doctor's office is doing about coronavirus. So I have been sick with a cough, sore throat for a week but no fever so I wasn't worried about coronavirus (ended up I just have bronchitits) but decided to go to doctor yesterday as I was not getting better. When I called for an appointment the usual recorded message was replaced at the beginning with "If you have a cough, a fever and traveled internationally, press 0 now." I asked the nurse what they do if you have those symptoms and history. They tell you to come to the office, stay in your car and then call on your cellphone and they will come out to the parking lot to talk to you.

During my visit they took two swabs and I was tested for the flu and strep throat by in office tests in a matter of minutes. Seems to me that a rapid in office test for coronavirus (similar to the strep and flu tests) is what is needed to get a handle on the number of folks who have coronavirus and help stop its spread.

[Alligator]

People often don't realize the size of the US in relation to Europe kboth sides of the Atlantic). Italy is roughly the size of California (https://www.google.com/search?q=if+italy+was+a+us+state+how+big+would+it+ be&client=ms-android-verizon-sscr&prmd=inv&sxsrf=ALeKk01V0dlt2Qq1GFbnBEGAUc95PSQpkA:158385107 4862&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwi1vsaFkZDoAhUOkHIEHfulBeAQ_AUoAXoECA0QA Q&biw=412&bih=670&dpr=2.63#imgrc=Z9Z1yIyo5nl5zM) with less area. States operate their own health bureaus and so may implement decisions on a statewide basis differently than neighboring states. There could potentially be state quarantines. Currently the western states seem to have the most cases but population density is highest I would guess in the Mid-Atlantic states. A lot of international travel through NYC. Hard to say whether states will close borders. I don't think there is any precedent of that happening but if it did that would impact hikers. My guess would be that NOBO hikers wouldn't be affected, that if such a thing were to occur, it would likely be lifted by the time NOBOs were passing the Mid-Atlantic states.

People should start considering whether trail feeds are a good idea this year. They would be a really poor idea from the standpoint of social distancing and honestly not a place where good hygiene is practiced. And before I get flamed, how often do you see a hand washing station or three compartment sink at a roadside trail feed?

[Alligator]

And pack some soap for a change and wash your hands! Won't be any hand sanitizer around. Sold out by me. And dare I say it, you all will need to practice the Minnesota Smith model for your tp needs. Might be in short supply. It'll be more like mountain gold not mountain money!

[brimflop]

An interesting topic for sure, trail hygiene - but it seems a more pressing issue is going to be just getting to the trail head. As the number of cases continues to grow, it appears local authorities are preparing to shut down/restrict movement in those high incident areas. Would really be a bummer to get trapped somewhere on the way - there.
I have always been wary of the usual sickness from the trail and camp shelters, but the latest virus seems to be a little different than the normal flu - not absolutely sure of why it may be worse, but I'll take their word for it.
If I could ( and I can) get to the trail without much interaction with the world - and I had my supplies sourced and ready - I would not hesitate - it is pretty safe in the woods - away from people - but I would work hard to limit time near shelters and most definitely not touch others - maintain my distance. Sorry but that's just good practice given the times we are in with this virus.
The TP comments make sense, would be tough to try resupply on the trail with it all gone at the local m-marts. But - previous to our modern times people still pooped, and didn't die without TP. Funny thought mailing forward TP -
All be safe out there..

I'd bet the trail has many fewer during April, May, headed into May....

[Slo-go'en]

I don't understand the TP issue unless it's related to not being able to go shopping. In which case, I would think food to be more important. There are other ways to wipe your bum. Cut up an old bed sheet if you have to. Now if this was a norovirus pandemic, I'd want a good stash of TP handy :)

Hand Sanitizer is not effective. If you can't wash your hands, use a chlorine based wipe. You might want to carry a small bottle of chlorine. It's also effective to purify water.

Speaking of washing hands, it would be a good idea to come up with some method to easily do this. But please, not in or near a water source! Something you can hang in a tree and dribble water on your hands. Hum, like a water bladder. :-?

Anyway, I still plan to SOBO from Harper Ferry some time in April, haven't decided exact date yet.

[brimflop]

Yep! Its a math thing, and we are all mathimtichins…. or what ever you call people that can add numbers,,,

[rmitchell]

My plans were to begin a northbound section hike at Harpers Ferry on May 2 and ending at Pawling, New York. I've arranged to drive up to Pine Grove Furnace with a friend, leave my car there then catch a shuttle to Harpers Ferry (or Weaverton Heights).

After hiking to Pine Grove Furnace my friend would return home with the car and I would continue north. The plan then called for me to catch the train to New York City then fly back to Knoxville.

Now the finish point of the hike doesn't seem like such a good idea. By May things may change but at the moment I'm thinking about waiting a year.

[rickb]

I would put the over/under on the AMC closing all winter facilities with bunk rooms at about 7 days from today.

Just my wild guess — the club posted on March 6th that they are monitoring the situation.

If closures do happen, I would not be surprised if it takes as long to open them as it will to rebuild a footbridge in Harpers Ferry.

Good news for thru hikers is that there is not a single hut you cannot hike around— so not a huge impact there.

[Kookork]

I’m heading to the south of England for the month of May. … I hope …

If the Italian experience counts for anything, I wonder whether England will fare any better?

It’s been only weeks since Covid-19 was found in Italy. Now its government is about to put serious and significant lockdowns on northern Italy. Not quite China-strict, but certainly worth reading up on.

China may be passing through the peak of its original epidemic. That’s taken more than two months to appear, build, perhaps now peak — and then how long to fade away? …

So will Italy be locked down for the month they’re proposing? Or longer in reality?

What will happen in the UK? They’ve gone through serious public health cuts and are facing more. Will the Covid-19 epidemic be peaking in May? Will I be able to get medical treatment if I succumb? Will I be able to get out of the country? Will I face 14 days of isolation if and when I get back here to Canada?

For that matter, how will my Canada do? So far, we’ve done remarkably well, especially with our relatively close ties to China and other affected countries. Here’s hoping our decent state of preparedness and our public health system works well …

More worrisome, how will the US do, given its shocking lack of preparedness? Anyone here from
Washington State? How are the numbers progressing there?

I think it is safe to say a trip to anywhere in the world in the next 6 months is just un-calculated and unnecessary risk taking. we better be the closest to our home and family and Canadian health system(or any other health system we are part of it).
Can you imagine you are in UK and God forbid you fall ill by Covid and nobody of friends and family could fly there to help you in a country that is not originally responsible for your health and has myriad of their own cases to address first?

Even in Wuhan that China claims they have almost controlled the disease, the moment people get back to their normal life, the disease start to spread and another vicious cycle begins by asymptomatic healthy carriers.
Covid-19 is nothing like Ebola or many others which took a few thousands lives . This is not a blizzard that comes and goes and does some instant damage. It will be a long winter like summer ahead.

I regretfully call it a " Russian Roulette" that might potentially take the lives of a huge chunk of our people especially vulnerable individuals. ( as big chunk as 7 to 15 percent depending on the country and situation).

We should do our best to delay the arrival of Covid to our area because only then we might have enough data and experience from previous cases and countries that will share their experience to help us.
Also even a few week delay will give us chance to empty our hospital beds from seasonal Flu that comes and goes each and every year more or less. Right now in Canada for example the beds are just barely getting empty of elderly flu cases.
Vaccine does not seem to be available until 2021 in best estimated cases. We are left with our immune system and our wisdom not to go to places that people are in numbers until humanity finds a solution for this catastrophe in developing.


It will not be easy to hear every day someone we knew ( and possibly dearly loved) is added to the list of casualties in the future.

By the way my opinion holds a little more water than some of the previous comments because for God Sake I used to be a medical doctor with epidemiology in my front mind and kind of in my family blood since My brother has a PhD in Epidemiology from Cambridge university and also a medical doctor.

The West coast was hit first because oh well it is closer to China ,the source, but sooner or later every corner of this world will be affected.

And people who say we have survived many viruses before seems to forget we as a race survived but individually for example Spanish flue took fifty million lives worldwide and it was 1/3 to 1/5 fatal compared to covid. So yes we will survive as we did before but with how many casualties is the real question and concern.

Take your elderly out of Nursing homes if you can before it is too late. You give them more chance by isolating them more and not visiting them as frequently as you like. we younger folks can be potentially carrier who affect our elderly not even knowing it . We can't answer how long it will take for this disease to be controlled but we better be prepared for a long war.

This disease will test the endurance of the humanity in some new levels. This is our generation "test of a lifetime". Use more of your wisdom for a while. It is about life and death .

[Traillium]

I agree, Kookork. I can’t see going to England. ... Sad to be coming to this realization …

I think the decision will be taken out of my hands over the next several weeks …

Damn! Where shall we hike?


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[futureatwalker]

This is not a blizzard that comes and goes and does some instant damage. It will be a long winter like summer ahead.



Yes, I think the challenge is a normalcy bias - we're not good at recognising that the ground has shifted under our feet.

After reading this view - https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/
I will admit to being alarmed.

Essentially, if you extrapolate from current numbers, all U.S. hospital beds will be taken by May 10th.

[TexasBob]

We maybe on the cusp of a wide spread epidemic and what actions are taken in the next 14 days or so will determine how bad it gets apparently from what I have read and seen on TV. If you are 60 or older this might not be the year to hike the trail as us seasoned citizens are more likely to have serious complications from the coronavirus and you don't want to be out on the trail if that happens. Lets hope we dodge the bullet and things don't get bad.

[Leo L.]

Maybe ist just opposite, being out in the nature, away from any crowds, is the best way to not get infected (given you are obeying the usual precautions when meeting other people)?

[TexasBob]

Maybe ist just opposite, being out in the nature, away from any crowds, is the best way to not get infected (given you are obeying the usual precautions when meeting other people)?

Maybe but you will be needing to resupply, shower, pass through towns etc so you won't be out in nature all the time. Plus you need to get to trail which usually involves some form of mass transit (planes, trains, buses, shuttles etc).

[Leo L.]

I'm just contemplating this very topic myself, our southern neighbour Italy has a complete shutdown, Austria is closing schools and universities and stops all major gatherings, Elderly Homes closed for visits etc.
This comes pretty close to a total shutdown here pretty fast.

So I'm seriously asking myself, will I be more safe to be out in the local mountains Tipi-Walter-style for a week or two?
The plus side would be, no other people means no infection.
The minus side is, if infected and sick far from medical help could proof to be serious.

[JPritch]

My company has sent everybody home for the foreseeable future. My new reality is working from the dining room table.

I have been stockpiling some food, looks like I may need to get more. Anybody's thoughts on impact to the food supply? If SHTF, are we still gonna be able to drive thru a McDonald's, or hit the grocery store?

[TNhiker]

with all the cancellations of large events and what not---i wouldn't doubt if the ATC puts out a statement saying people with plans to thru hike
to put it off for a while....

[Traffic Jam]

My company has sent everybody home for the foreseeable future. My new reality is working from the dining room table.

I have been stockpiling some food, looks like I may need to get more. Anybody's thoughts on impact to the food supply? If SHTF, are we still gonna be able to drive thru a McDonald's, or hit the grocery store?
I expect my reality is an extended stay at work in a hospital. Friday plans include prepping for work and storing essentials in my vehicle. I also wonder about the food situation and whether there will be enough to feed the staff and patients. But I’ll be ready for whatever happens.

[FromNH]

I have way too much backpacking food anyway and a whole forest behind my house but I do feel bad for people who are less fortunate. This can turn very bad very quickly. Most stores only have a couple of days worth of supplies and if no trucks can be loaded.....

[One Half]

I would encourage people to stock up on food and necessary supplies for a minimum of 30 days of staying home. We always have at least 30-60 days (and often more than that) of pretty much all necessities except fresh produce of course.

Keep your gas tanks full as well.

If you can work from home, do it.

Practice good personal hygiene habits - don't touch your face, use paper towels/napkins to open doors etc when going to public places, avoid large gatherings, etc.

Put off non-essential travel.

[4eyedbuzzard]

Well, with the European travel ban just ordered this evening that starts this Friday (no travel to and from Europe excluding the UK), any Europeans that planned a thru-hike who are not already here probably aren't coming until mid-April at the earliest.

[jurahd]

When it rains you want to be in the shelter, to get your stuff organized, platforms and tables are wonderful.
It’s the crowded sleeping conditions in the ‘bubble’.
Of course the the exercise is great. The hardest job you’ll ever have and that’s a great body to fight disease.
I’ve hiked just short of 4 thousand AT miles and now 70 years old would not join the young crowd at springer this spring. You can’t avoid sickness. Better section where people aren’t. Plenty of options. Once did southern mtns
In fall, saw nary a soul. Loner bliss. With good bug strategy and luck on the rain vermud is lovely next two months, whites before summer. Sweep out the empty shelters and enjoy your mountain home!

[Slo-go'en]

Well, with the European travel ban just ordered this evening that starts this Friday (no travel to and from Europe excluding the UK), any Europeans that planned a thru-hike who are not already here probably aren't coming until mid-April at the earliest.

A little late to be closing the barn door. It's here and largely undetected.

[jurahd]

Like most infectious disease a mild response confers immunity. Iran and Italy have close commerce with its source ...the wuhan flu will be arrested by warm weather.

[Leo L.]

Now as Europeans got locked out from US for the next 30 days (and who knows what will come beyond that period of time) so at least there will be this amount of hikers less out there on the famous LD trails.
(Edit: Sorry, nonsense post this one. Didn't see that others had brought this up earlier).

Honestly, We're making up our mind if we could do some 2-3 days local hikes the next week and beyond, due to our young one having no school.
It's far better to do something than to hang around and catch cabin fever.

[4eyedbuzzard]

A little late to be closing the barn door. It's here and largely undetected.
Yeah, was just pointing out the "impact", albeit a small one from numbers of hikers on the trail. I feel sorry for any hikers whose plans will be affected. Given the mobility of modern society - millions of people travelling by air daily - I don't know that closing doors is even realistic. With a 5 day incubation period, stuff like this would likely spread globally before there's enough evidence to respond/close doors.

[Traillium]

Quite the transition in tone and especially in outlook in this thread since it started just a relatively short while ago!

I find it heartening that ‘my community’ is getting the seriousness of what we’re entering into.

I feel like reading up on the Noah story …


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[JNI64]

A little late to be closing the barn door. It's here and largely undetected.

I work for a school system in northern Virginia. The school system just south of us closed last week 100+ schools. I got a call this morning saying our schools are closed until next Friday the 20th. We have over 100 schools over 10,000 employees. They've been educating the teachers how to tela, teach from home. I'm night time essential emergency personnel for all schools. Well guess what I'm sick go figure huh, all the flu symptoms. I'm waiting for the drs office to open for appointment and advice. I don't get sick I don't even own a thermometer that's a question I have for the dr office do I go get one and risk infecting others or just come in? I'll be back with updates.

[Puddlefish]

When it rains you want to be in the shelter, to get your stuff organized, platforms and tables are wonderful.
It’s the crowded sleeping conditions in the ‘bubble’.
Of course the the exercise is great. The hardest job you’ll ever have and that’s a great body to fight disease.
I’ve hiked just short of 4 thousand AT miles and now 70 years old would not join the young crowd at springer this spring. You can’t avoid sickness. Better section where people aren’t. Plenty of options. Once did southern mtns
In fall, saw nary a soul. Loner bliss. With good bug strategy and luck on the rain vermud is lovely next two months, whites before summer. Sweep out the empty shelters and enjoy your mountain home!


Just as a heads up, this particular virus can live for days on certain surfaces in certain conditions. Warm damp conditions specifically, such as a shelter table/surface are far more likely to transmit the virus to you and your gear. It's not just a matter of avoiding people. Wash your hands when you've touched what people have touched recently. It can be spread pre-symptomatically, and symptomatically. So you can catch it from someone sick, even if they aren't actively coughing on you.

Sweeping shelters, should ideally be done by the first and last person each day, that cloud of dust and crumbs mixed with mouse poop can be a respiratory irritant, and Covid 19 is a virus that affects the respiratory system.

But yeah, I'm avoiding crowds as well. For that matter I'm going to avoid the AT this year, and stay on my rarely used local trails.

[chknfngrs]

Should not live in fear. Educate.

[AsoloBootsSuk]

...Well guess what I'm sick go figure huh, all the flu symptoms. I'm waiting for the drs office to open for appointment and advice. I don't get sick I don't even own a thermometer that's a question I have for the dr office do I go get one and risk infecting others or just come in? I'll be back with updates.

lol, I have a scratchy throat, I'm never sick either. Hoping it's just hypochondriasis. Good luck to you!

[TexasBob]

Quite the transition in tone and especially in outlook in this thread since it started just a relatively short while ago!..........

Not just on this thread. I go to the grocery store most days and yesterday for the first time when I was there I noticed that probably 50% of people had toilet paper in the basket, noticeably less pasta and sauce, ramen, canned foods, bottled water on the shelves not to mention Clorox was sold out and toilet was almost gone. I saw one lady with 2 gallons of Clorox, that is enough to make 100 gallons of disinfectant at the rates recommended by CDC for coronavirus. She could disinfect a football stadium with all that. A bit of panic buying setting in.

[chknfngrs]

Plus we we backpackers know how to wipe without TP, don’t we?

[Five Tango]

Plus we we backpackers know how to wipe without TP, don’t we?

On the bright side-maybe now we can re-purpose all that junk mail!:banana:banana:banana

[Slo-go'en]

On the bright side-maybe now we can re-purpose all that junk mail!:banana:banana:banana

Just not the glossy stuff :)

[George]

and we used to worry about internet viruses

[Puddlefish]

Just not the glossy stuff :)

I'm a volunteer driver for the elderly. A 95 year old woman was telling me the story of life before indoor plumbing. She and her cousin used to tear out the soft pages of the Sears catalog and leave the glossy pages for the adults.

[irishkat]

As someone who is/was planning a thru hike this year, I agree with the practical concerns. I would expand that to include concerns about resupply even being available. As schools are starting to shut down nationwide along with day cares, etc.. people will not be able to work. Companies will shut down also and our national supply systems will likely be impacted. So will you be able to find food at normal resupply points? Also expect that it will be possible that hotels and hotels may not be open... and if they are, do you really want to be there? I am going to turn 60 this year so I am in a higher risk group... This is NOT an easy decision. Oh, and if you knew you had the flu and went out in public anyway, you are morally responsible for any deaths you may have caused down the line... just like antivaxxers are responsible for the spread of preventable diseases and the deaths they cause by ruining herd immunity.

[The Josh]

Looks like flip flop festival is cancelled (https://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php/136319-2020-flip-flop-festival-event-cancellation-notice?p=2265864#post2265864). VA has a 30 day ban on gatherings of 250+ people. Trail days is still 2 months out, but it's likely this will be extended in the following month unless there is a very serious slowdown of the spread of the virus.

[trailmercury]

Trail Days should be cancelled.... large crowd + poor hygiene=bad combo

[chknfngrs]

True that!


Trail Days should be cancelled.... large crowd + poor hygiene=bad combo

[chknfngrs]

True that!


Trail Days should be cancelled.... large crowd + poor hygiene=bad combo

[D2maine]

well at least one trail club is taking this seriously

https://continentaldividetrail.org/about-the-trail/cdt-fire-incidents-and-information/

[GaryM]

Until the ATC disinfects the trail I ain't goin' back.... ;)

[4eyedbuzzard]

Until the ATC disinfects the trail I ain't goin' back.... ;)I usually use one Clorox wipe on about a 8 ft x 2 ft kitchen counter. So, assuming the pruned back area of the trail is approx 4 ft wide, each wipe could disinfect 4 linear feet of trail. So that's 1320 wipes per mile x 2180 miles = 2,877,600 wipes / 35 wipes per package = 82,217 packages of wipes. But good luck finding any at your local store. Like the toilet paper, it's all gone. My fellow Americans have interesting priorities...

[rickb]

well at least one trail club is taking this seriously

https://continentaldividetrail.org/about-the-trail/cdt-fire-incidents-and-information/


Its hard for me to wrap my head around all this, but everyone considering any thru hike should read that, I think.

[chknfngrs]

What about weekend hikes? Would ya all consider doing weekend section hikes still?

[FreeGoldRush]

What about weekend hikes? Would ya all consider doing weekend section hikes still?

This seems reasonable if the hike is very close to where you live. That is assuming it is legal at the time you are out. Travel restrictions to fight this virus may seem impossible here in America, but we have done some pretty radical things in our past during times of emergency.

Thru hiking, however, just does not seem realistic this year. I feel bad for those people who have already started.

[morgan]

The list of public and private closings is growing: universities, school systems, court systems, sports leagues, youth activities, houses of worships, and amusement parks, just to name a few. Here in Charlotte, many scout units have temporarily suspended activities, including meetings and camping trips.

It's just a matter of time before private, local, state, and national parks, forests, beaches and campgrounds are temporarily closed to the public. When that happens, hiking and backpacking as we know it will come to a temporary halt.

[rickb]

The ATC needs to come out with a very strong statement now discouraging hiker feeds, and the kinds of Trail Magic that has the potential to spread the virus.

They need to be leaders, even though in the end it’s a matter of personal responsibility and smarts.

[BillyGr]

well at least one trail club is taking this seriously

https://continentaldividetrail.org/about-the-trail/cdt-fire-incidents-and-information/

It definitely seems like more of an impact, based on the way that trail is set up (many more areas that are remote and harder to reach) than what someone is likely to see on the AT side of the country.

[TexasBob]

well at least one trail club is taking this seriously

https://continentaldividetrail.org/about-the-trail/cdt-fire-incidents-and-information/


It definitely seems like more of an impact, based on the way that trail is set up (many more areas that are remote and harder to reach) than what someone is likely to see on the AT side of the country.

What you say is true but it can still be a problem on the AT. Here is what happened to me as an illustration of the problems you could face if you fall ill on the AT. I was thru hiking and started not feeling well in the Smokeys. Luckily I got to Standing Bear Farm before things got worse. Curtis gave me a ride (for $50) to a hospital in Hartford (I think that was the town) where I spent three days in the hospital. When I was discharged, I decided to go to a local motel and see if I got well enough to continue. No cabs and it was pre-Uber so the hospital minister had to give me a ride to the motel. After 3 days in the motel it was clear my hike was over. The problem was getting home. No bus service, pre-Uber days so the only way to get home was to rent a car from a nearby town (thank goodness Enterprise delivers). However, the rental car company only rents instate so I had to drive to another location and rent a different car from another rental car company car that I could drive home to Virginia. It all worked out and I could afford considerable extra expense. Something to think about if you planning to hike it the time of coronavirus.

[johnnybgood]

One unknown with this Coronavirus is whether there might be a dip as temperatures warm, as in the case with the seasonal flu, but as of now we simply don’t know.
There however is little doubt things will get worse the next 2-4 weeks; little doubt too that we will have a second novel Coronavirus season as cold temperatures approach this winter( since getting a vaccine developed, tested, then manufactured won’t occur for another 12 months, possibly longer.
What we do know is, for now anyway, is the virus is being spread rapidly through communities everywhere.
What we also know is that the incubation period is 7 to 10 days before symptoms manifest themselves. By the time one realizes that they are truly sick, go to their PCP, get a mouth swab,test results read ,they have infected a dozen people and those dozen people have each infected a dozen people, multiplying tenfold the impact of the spread of the disease.
What happens to the businesses that rely on the hiking communities to help support them is less clear.

[martinb]

Re-supply would be more of a problem, especially if you need equipment replacement. For example, you get off the trail in Daleville hoping to pick up something at the outdoor trail store but it's closed. Mill mountain coffee would probably be closed, too. The kroger would probably be open so food wouldn't be an issue. Smaller towns, who knows.

[martinb]

What about weekend hikes? Would ya all consider doing weekend section hikes still?

Absolutely. Avoid shelters.

[gpburdelljr]

Article on how it spreads, and infects.

https://apnews.com/545af824f44a22f7559c74679a4f1f53

[Tenda]

Can anyone report on what hiker towns are like at the moment? Is it difficult to resupply or find a place to spend the night? Does anyone anticipate hiker towns to start closing their doors to hikers?

[FromNH]

The virus is spreading in India and 12 of 54 Nations in Africa are reporting infections. I don’t think heat will make much of a difference. They are getting ready for human trials for a vaccine, that’s our best bet.

[CalebJ]

They are getting ready for human trials for a vaccine, that’s our best bet.

Where did you hear this?

[gpburdelljr]

Coronavirus vaccine trial starts Monday.

https://apnews.com/8089a3d0ec8f9fde971bddd7b3aa2ba1 (https://apnews.com/8089a3d0ec8f9fde971bddd7b3aa2ba1)

[soilman]

Can anyone report on what hiker towns are like at the moment? Is it difficult to resupply or find a place to spend the night? Does anyone anticipate hiker towns to start closing their doors to hikers?
Bars and restaurants are closed in several states including MA. Several hostels have closed.


https://nuttyhiker.com/appalachian-trail-closures-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR2681Jo0IaJWIbnSRiICVuhCgPUtOeBecxdmR52 vc8N6QwCwTC_0EMA9Ug

[martinb]

CDC recommending any place hosting 50 or more persons be shut down for 8 weeks. Going to be tough finding any hotels open.

[Five Tango]

Where did you hear this?

I just saw it too,(GASP),on FOX NEWS.Should we believe it?Seems pretty quick to me,just say'n.....

[CalebJ]

I'm not sure what your point is. It's a legitimate story, I just hadn't heard it at the time it was posted earlier.

If you have a problem with me, perhaps you should take it elsewhere?

[JNI64]

And our next big holiday, cinco de mayo sponsored by.........Corona :eek:

[Leo L.]

There are several places in Europe that have a total shutdown now, Northern Italy being one, Tyrol (Austria) being another one.
Not even allowed to show yourself outdoors without special permission.
In our state (Upper Austria) we are still allowed to be outdoors single or together with the folks you are living with.
All restaurants and accommodations are closed.

Corona will hit all countries full-force.
We better be prepared for the worst (no hiking at all) pretty soon.

[Seatbelt]

Sure glad I was able to get some AT hiking in this past weekend; lot's of people out on the trail (Carver's Gap to 19E).

[FromNH]

As a backstory I speak several languages. I read it on European News outlets and it’s now been confirmed here in the US that human testing has begun. However even at an accelerated pace it will be close to a year if not longer to get a vaccine approved.

[FromNH]

Sure glad I was able to get some AT hiking in this past weekend; lot's of people out on the trail (Carver's Gap to 19E).

I chose a very difficult trail and had no one around me.

[futureatwalker]

This has moved quick...

O.K., do we call it? Is the AT thru-hiking season done, except for those already on trail (and even for them, in all likelihood, eventually)?

Full disclosure: I'm writing this from 3,000 miles away, on an island where they are encouraging everyone to stay home, and from which travel to the US has been suspended.

[gpburdelljr]

CDC recommending any place hosting 50 or more persons be shut down for 8 weeks. Going to be tough finding any hotels open.

I think they meant people in a group, not the aggregate of people in individual rooms.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/15/health/us-coronavirus-sunday-updates/index.html

[JC13]

Can anyone report on what hiker towns are like at the moment? Is it difficult to resupply or find a place to spend the night? Does anyone anticipate hiker towns to start closing their doors to hikers?I was in Franklin, NC; Friday - Sunday. The only thing shutdown at that time were the church services, stove fuel was low at the Wal-mart, I didn't check tp or anything else. Hostel I stayed at was intimate (4 persons max) they were staying open for the foreseeable future last I heard.

[martinb]

I think they meant people in a group, not the aggregate of people in individual rooms.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/15/health/us-coronavirus-sunday-updates/index.html

The current president says 10 or less now. You could have that many in a hotel lobby, easy.

[Slo-go'en]

Was at the AMC Highland center today, climbed Field and Willard - great day. They were open when we got there in the morning, but by the time we left there was a sign "CLOSED UNTIL MAY 1" at the entrence.

Just saw a notice that the RMC camps are now closed until further notice. Not sure how that will be inforced.

[CalebJ]

Glad we made it in on Wednesday before they closed the highland center. That would have been quite a disappointment, we were pretty wrecked at that point.

[peakbagger]

Was at the AMC Highland center today, climbed Field and Willard - great day. They were open when we got there in the morning, but by the time we left there was a sign "CLOSED UNTIL MAY 1" at the entrence.

Just saw a notice that the RMC camps are now closed until further notice. Not sure how that will be inforced.

My guess is they will keep a caretaker up there but will just not allow folks to use the facilities. Not that hard to post the trailheads.

[Vince G]

If they do a quarantine like Italy and Spain, (that I think is likely) you've got to figure they will close the National and State Parks to discourage travel. This will mean long roadwalks to get around, or maybe hitchhiking, which creates its own problems. Not a good time to be thru hiking.

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk

[QuietStorm]

It looks like AT shelters in PA may be included in this, but it's not clear. Does anyone know?

https://www.dcnr.pa.gov/Pages/AlertDetails.aspx?fbclid=IwAR0PTV4Jt9EFCqZVK9RA4u7 ne2TtYvqzA77GAe2THeHfvf_vxE9-Cq1dBZg

[CalebJ]

As written it certainly includes the shelters.

[JNI64]

Healthiest state in the nation wv. No Corona. I think I'll stay put. Rumors have it we may have a 2,3 week paid layoff. If that comes to light perhaps I'll head to the dolly sods area tipi Walter style.

[gpburdelljr]

Links to ATC info on coronavirus and the trail.

http://appalachiantrail.org/home/community/blog/ATFootpath/2020/03/13/the-atc-s-covid-19-plan

https://wildeast.appalachiantrail.org/explore/plan-and-prepare/hiking-basics/health/covid19/

[Slo-go'en]

Browsing the Trail journal entries is interesting.

The NOC just closed. That will be a pain.
Some have decided to go home, others are wondering if they should go.
And there are those who will press on.

Hum, what if the GSMNP and SNP get shut down?

[TNhiker]

Hum, what if the GSMNP and SNP get shut down?



GSMNP shut their visitors centers down until further notice.....

[soilman]

ATC is requesting you postpone your thru or section hike this year.
http://appalachiantrail.org/home/community/blog/ATFootpath/2020/03/17/updated-covid-19-guidance-for-a.t.-multi-day-and-thru-hikers?fbclid=IwAR31NeUP4sLafQmq4-FsD7VWmzZEZSjyPXnqPowtzPQL_YvuWx6TeMegOB0

[chknfngrs]

Gotta think with your head, not your heart. Easier said than done

[Mello Yello]

An update from Nantahala Outdoor Center (NOC) (Mile 136.7) – Restaurant, Lodging and Outfitter Store are closed until March 29. The General Store will remain open to thru-hikers for resupply and mail drops. At this time we can only allow six hikers in the store at a time and will be cleaning and sanitizing the store and bathrooms hourly. Due to the health and safety of our community, no camping is currently allowed on-site, and bathrooms will not be open overnight. Please stay safe and we will keep you updated. https://noc.com/about/covid19

[Paleolith54]

GSMNP shut their visitors centers down until further notice.....

They also sent this out to those with a current backcountry permit (and perhaps others also.)

"While backpackers are ordinarily required to stay in the shelter, at this time users are authorized to use a tent outside the shelter to provide for social distancing. It is important that you stay in the area around the shelter, both for your safety and the protection of the resources.

If you exit the backcountry due to a high fever, dry cough and/or respiratory difficulty, please report that to Park Dispatch at 865-436-1230. For the latest CDC information visit: www.cdc.gov/coronavirus. If you have questions about the shelter information, please contact the Backcountry Office at 865-436-1297."

[Seatbelt]

Both hostels at 19E were open this weekend, not sure about any future plans.

[Singletrack]

According to the Task Force doctors, millennials are the transporters of the virus. Many not knowing they are infected, and show no warnings of the virus. Older people (over 65, and with pre existing conditions) are more in danger. If this continues into Summer, I suspect many parks, services etc. will be closed.

[TexasBob]

Gotta think with your head, not your heart. Easier said than done

Wise words. I feel bad for everyone that was planning to hike and now are canceling. Tough but smart and responsible choice.

[hoozurmama]

I was scheduled to leave in two weeks but given the ATC post today I've postponed. I'm hoping that this will subside over the next 6 weeks and I will be able to head North from Damascus at the beginning of May.

[Mockernut]

I was thinking that a nice long solo would be nice...and then the thought occurred to me that I don't really want to end up sick and alone in a tent in a remote area...nothing good comes from that.

[saltysack]

Healthiest state in the nation wv. No Corona. I think I'll stay put. Rumors have it we may have a 2,3 week paid layoff. If that comes to light perhaps I'll head to the dolly sods area tipi Walter style.

Spoke to soon! Ugh


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[JNI64]

Spoke to soon! Ugh


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yep, there goes bragging rights but hey we were the last state to get infected. Somewhere in my area to eastern panhandle ugh is right. Governor said as of midnight shutting down all restaurants, bars,casino's, which I don't visit them places anyway. Well the occasional restaurant. Our supervisor had a talk with us today and said we can take off but we have to use our leave no questions asked no doc note needed. But he said that could change any minute,to just stay home .

[JNI64]

I was thinking that a nice long solo would be nice...and then the thought occurred to me that I don't really want to end up sick and alone in a tent in a remote area...nothing good comes from that.

But if you're solo and in a tent or hammock wouldn't you be fine with no one around to infect ya? If you're home from work paid like a teacher or something perfect chance to go just take everything you need, no resupply no worries.

[Time Zone]

... but hey we were the last state to get infected.


Maybe, maybe not. WV was the last state to know they had a case. There hasn't been much testing. Only 84 tests run in WV as of yesterday per Sen. Joe Manchin.

[JNI64]

Maybe, maybe not. WV was the last state to know they had a case. There hasn't been much testing. Only 84 tests run in WV as of yesterday per Sen. Joe Manchin.

Yeah, yeah, I know I'm just trying to keep a lil sense of humor about me. I went to the gym yesterday morning there was like 8 people, usually about 30,50 spin classes yoga classes none of that, the one thing I truly enjoy going to the gym. I won't be going back to the gym now I guess until this is over. This sucks so bad what pisses me off the most is the Chinese and there eating habits didn't they learn in 2002 sars outbreak not to eat bats and them wet markets *** . I know they have to feed a billion people but find something other then bat soup .why the world health organization doesn't step in and stop some of these very bad animal handling practices . Maybe the fact that their the second biggest donation behind us. And people that speak up around there well they just disappear.

[HankIV]

Pretty quick here. Won't work for this season, but might be ready for next. Which would be historically pretty quick.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51906604

[Tremor]

I am supposed to start in Amicalola April 9th ,as of right now I am holding on to a wee bit of hope . But realistically I think that will change . If all gets cleared up by May 15th I am considering a flip-flop . If it gets into June 15th a sobo , Much after that I would push it to 2021. Being retired gives a bit of flexibility . The trail is a big enough challenge without the added stress of where there would and wouldn't be resupply items. And resupply boxes while an option and are good occasionally ,I think would be a huge hassle to do the entire trail that way . Dan

[Majortrauma]

And as recently as 17 March there is a call to suspend all thru hiking and get off the trail and if you haven't started, dont start. I thi k this is going way too far.
This would also seem to apply to section hikers.
I dont think that shelters can actually be closed unless it's in a Natl Park so this is quite unenforceable. I dont see how anyone can prevent you from walking in the woods just because it happens to be the AT or PCT or any other "trail.".
I seriously doubt you could be arrested and Natl Forest Service employees aren't Law Enforcement so they cant do anything.
I have a section hike planned end of april that will go as planned.

[chknfngrs]

Suit yourself, but use your brain. Common shared spaces right now are suspect. The last place you want to be is sleeping or eating in a shelter or picnic table space close to another person. Dispersed tent camping via Tipi Walter would work. Please listen to what ever authority might happen to close a shelter and avoid temptation to squidgle with the rules. Unenforceable means jackcrap if you get sick and die, or get someone else sick and they die.

[TwoSpirits]

If hiker numbers significantly decrease this year, as seems likely, it will.be interesting to see how certain seasonally overused areas look next year.

[Slo-go'en]

I'm canceling my yearly LASH this spring. First time in like 15 years. Doesn't seem worth the risk or hassle. Instead I'll wait for the fall and do Maine.

Meanwhile, I'll stay close to home and work on red lining my White Mountain map. I have some big voids, mostly the wilderness area traverses. Maybe I'll finish up my 4,000 footer and 100 highest list too.

[TNhiker]

I seriously doubt you could be arrested and Natl Forest Service employees aren't Law Enforcement so they cant do anything.



that is not true....

there are national forest employees that are law enforcement....


https://www.fs.fed.us/lei/

[rhjanes]

that is not true....

there are national forest employees that are law enforcement....


https://www.fs.fed.us/lei/


Yep. There are also state parks employees who are "law". National Parks and State Parks, we call them all "Park Rangers". Usually you can tell the difference in which one carries a utility belt with a taser, a weapon and some handcuffs. I was at a state park one evening awaiting an activity we were doing (Orienteering at night). There was a ruckus up the hill in one of the tent-camping sites. A "ranger" showed up. He got out of the truck, reached for his radio and called for another "ranger". First ranger, no utility belt. Second Ranger (with a weapon and handcuffs) showed up, stepped out of his truck and called for back up to the county sheriff. Instead of a night slumbering in some tents, an entire group of people who got drunk and started fighting, got to "Camp" that night in the local jail and see the judge in the morning. The Ranger with the utility belt arrested most of them.

[TNhiker]

National Parks and State Parks, we call them all "Park Rangers".



yup..

there are law enforcement rangers, education rangers, interpretive rangers, maintenance rangers, heck, even the guy who picks up the trash is considered a ranger......

[peakbagger]

On the other hand there is exactly one NPS aw enforcement officer assigned half time to the entire AT. I was advised as a volunteer that given this fact that its highly likely that someone would ever even see this officer unless it was a very high profile incident.

[Alligator]

And as recently as 17 March there is a call to suspend all thru hiking and get off the trail and if you haven't started, dont start. I thi k this is going way too far.
This would also seem to apply to section hikers.
I dont think that shelters can actually be closed unless it's in a Natl Park so this is quite unenforceable. I dont see how anyone can prevent you from walking in the woods just because it happens to be the AT or PCT or any other "trail.".
I seriously doubt you could be arrested and Natl Forest Service employees aren't Law Enforcement so they cant do anything.
I have a section hike planned end of april that will go as planned.The US Forest Service, National Park Service, and Bureau of Land Management all have law enforcement officers (LEOs), as do many state park and forest service agencies.

I will remind everyone that the WB User Agreement states

4. Discussions involving how to commit illegal acts, or involving the use, production and/or distribution of illegal drugs are forbidden.If parts or all of the trail get closed by authorities, discussions about continued use of those sections will not be permitted.

[soilman]

And as recently as 17 March there is a call to suspend all thru hiking and get off the trail and if you haven't started, dont start. I thi k this is going way too far.
This would also seem to apply to section hikers.
I dont think that shelters can actually be closed unless it's in a Natl Park so this is quite unenforceable. I dont see how anyone can prevent you from walking in the woods just because it happens to be the AT or PCT or any other "trail.".
I seriously doubt you could be arrested and Natl Forest Service employees aren't Law Enforcement so they cant do anything.
I have a section hike planned end of april that will go as planned.

The US is under a state of emergency. Schools, restaurants, bars, bowling alleys, casinos, and gyms are closed in many places. Everyone needs to do their part to minimize the spread of the virus. I have a loop hike of the BMT and AT planned for the end of April. I will probably postpone this hike even though I probably won't see another hiker on the BMT. Am I disappointed, sure. But this inconvenience is minor compared to the workers in bars and restaurants who are out of work. The AT is a unit of the National Parks so I am quite sure they could close shelters if they choose. At this time I don't think anyone is discouraging using trails and walking in the woods. Authorities are just stressing the need to maintain social distancing. The problem I see is for any kind of long distance hike is resupplying.

[CalebJ]

Assuming the relevant sections weren't closed, why would you skip your hike, Soilman? As you said, you are very likely not to see anyone at all on the BMT. Social distancing at its finest.

[Wesgoat]

I understand the severity of this health crisis. But, wouldn't hiking actually be one of the better and safer alternatives you could do to practice "social distancing". Unless you stay in your house 24/7 you will come into proximity of others.

I do think resupply won't be as easy as usual but it can still be done.

My new job training is being delayed until end of May. I am giving serious thought to starting at Springer this weekend and hiking north until then.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

[Majortrauma]

Precisely!

[soilman]

Assuming the relevant sections weren't closed, why would you skip your hike, Soilman? As you said, you are very likely not to see anyone at all on the BMT. Social distancing at its finest.
My plan was to hike Springer Mt to Fontana on the BMT then Fontana to Springer on the AT. I think the BMT portion would have less problems. I was planning on 3 mail drops and no overnight stays in town on the BMT. But I was looking forward to eating as several restaurants. The AT is a different story. I was planning on resupply in Franklin and Hiawassee and stopping at NOC. NOC has limited it services already. There is a chance Fontana Village will have some restrictions. The irony is that I originally planned a thru hike of the BMT back in Sept. 2107. Two days before I was planning to start hurricane Irma hit and parts of the BMT in GA was closed. So I waited a week and skipped the first 100 miles. This hike was to fill in this section.

[CalebJ]

Gotcha. One of these days I need to finish the BMT. Got through Tellico Springs in '14 but never made it back. Definitely sounds like you've thought it through carefully.

[martinb]

This could become a "shelter in place" event. It might be a wiser choice to wait until a vaccine is approved before tackling a thru.

[chknfngrs]

unsupported hikes only way to fly right now

[Alligator]

I understand the severity of this health crisis. But, wouldn't hiking actually be one of the better and safer alternatives you could do to practice "social distancing". Unless you stay in your house 24/7 you will come into proximity of others.

I do think resupply won't be as easy as usual but it can still be done.

My new job training is being delayed until end of May. I am giving serious thought to starting at Springer this weekend and hiking north until then.

Sent from my SM-N920V using TapatalkEvery point on your road trip that you exit your vehicle and every point on your hike that you leave the trail you will be at risk of exposure to or exposing others to the virus. So that you can recreate instead of helping the community and country stay safe. Because you are unwilling to do your civic duty for a couple months. Watch this map (https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6) for a few days, follow the statistics here (https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/a-message-from-one-of-our-doctors-to-his-family-about-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR2xufSLLzvs-yJ15t1miUI8LUM0s1tqSAVo1UfztD3--JpMnnjeSaGygs4), there are estimates of doubling times for cases and death by country here (https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/a-message-from-one-of-our-doctors-to-his-family-about-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR2xufSLLzvs-yJ15t1miUI8LUM0s1tqSAVo1UfztD3--JpMnnjeSaGygs4). There won't be enough hospital beds. There are people dying in Italy (https://www.nebraskamed.com/COVID/a-message-from-one-of-our-doctors-to-his-family-about-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR2xufSLLzvs-yJ15t1miUI8LUM0s1tqSAVo1UfztD3--JpMnnjeSaGygs4) because they don't have enough equipment and beds. It's looking like the only way to avoid that is going to be to shelter in place. Not there yet, give it 1-3 weeks. Maybe not the whole country but large sections of it.

[Deadeye]

I'm going to take this as an opportunity to hike the hike less traveled. There are lots of trails out there that take a 3-10 days where you can supply at home and not have to worry about closures, etc. Many of those trails don't have such disease vectors as shelters where hikers congregate. I might do some off-trail wandering, too. And then there are all those lists to tick off: 4,000 footers, fourteeners, etc. One guy I worked with chose to hike every peak he could see from the hill behind his house, trail or not.

We may have to change our habits for a while, perhaps permanently, but there's no need to avoid enjoying the outdoors.

[Slo-go'en]

I understand the severity of this health crisis. But, wouldn't hiking actually be one of the better and safer alternatives you could do to practice "social distancing". Unless you stay in your house 24/7 you will come into proximity of others.

AT hikers generally fall into two demographics. One is the kids, the 20 somethings. The other is the geriatric crowd, the 60+. Unfortunately this is not a good mix this year. The youngsters can have the virus and not know it, and pass it on to the older folks, many of who have underlying health issues to begin with. Having to segregate by age would be interesting. Seniors get first dibs on the shelter and picnic table :)

[dmax]

Time to hunt morels......

[Alligator]

I'm going to take this as an opportunity to hike the hike less traveled. There are lots of trails out there that take a 3-10 days where you can supply at home and not have to worry about closures, etc. Many of those trails don't have such disease vectors as shelters where hikers congregate. I might do some off-trail wandering, too. And then there are all those lists to tick off: 4,000 footers, fourteeners, etc. One guy I worked with chose to hike every peak he could see from the hill behind his house, trail or not.

We may have to change our habits for a while, perhaps permanently, but there's no need to avoid enjoying the outdoors.Not much to say to this if you are point to point (residence to trailhead) not getting out of your vehicle. Or walking or riding your bike. But don't use the facilities or stop in the convenience store for snacks. Pay at the pump. Bring whatever hand sanitizer you might have or wear gloves, and carry some mountain money.

[Tennessee Viking]

NC restaurant dining rooms and bars have been ordered to be closed as of March 17, 2020. Restaurant drive-thrus and carryout services are still allowed. Individual operations at restaurants near the AT might be hit or miss.

[Crushed Grapes]

We may have to change our habits for a while, perhaps permanently, but there's no need to avoid enjoying the outdoors.
I have the Foothills Trail pencilled in for a few weeks from now, but am hesitant as someone coming from a highly populated area, to a rural one. Also add the factor of possible getting injured on trail (hey, I'm clumsy). Just some things I'm trying to consider before making a decision.

I cancelled my PCT permit for 2020 yesterday. It was tough, but I know it's the correct choice.

[Ankle Bone]

Gee,I hope you're not calling me a grumpy old man who thinks he is immune to illness.I just got over an upper respiratory infection and it was no fun but it disturbs me that we are not discussing the elephant in the room which is plain old influenza.It has killed over 16,000 people and the press is about to cause a pure panic over Corona virus?Sure,it could get bad,but so far from what I read the average person has over a 98% chance of recovery.I will take those odds!
Don't take my word for it though.Here's a quote from Dr. Drew https://www.dailywire.com/news/dr-drew-media-needs-to-shut-up-about-coronavirus-youre-more-likely-to-die-of-influenza

Well, the early tone has sure changed over the past few days. I tried to read the good Dr.s comment but it didn't come up. Maybe he deleted it.

At this point, there is usually a vaccine for flu. And a treatment readily available after a readily available test. None of those yet for COVID-19, so if you don't get the concern at this point, well

[One Half]

any hike you can do without flying or driving great distances (necessitating overnight stops etc) and without having to do a resupply unless it's one you cache, I would think would be great right now.

[Crushed Grapes]

Just got confirmation that the shuttle driver who I was chatting with about a possible shuttle (for the FHT) and said she was highly unlikely to do it now, since I'd be going to rural SC from super busy DC. So yeah, I'm really on the fence about doing anything at this point.

[Sunburn]

I would like to go April 20 or into May to hike Georgia and possibly the Smokies and will if things turn up a little. But seems that we are only beginning to see cases and projections are that we will be worse than much of Europe which will mean pretty much total shutdown for at least two months. My biggest concern would be getting back to the car which I would be stressed about anyway.

If things improve, you will likely see the entire thru-hiker class hit the trail then so probably not the best idea.

As for getting the virus, I have no concerns about it but if it hits the AT it will likely spread like wildfire so once you have documented cases, you pretty much have to get off the trail or avoid it From what I have seen on YouTube pretty much everyone gets noro on a AT thru-hike and corona would be the same although it may die off in spring with warmer weather.

I have seen some experts say that eventually 70% of the US will get it and it will likely resurface in the fall and winter so this could last a year.

Hikers do at least work at limiting exposure to noro so would go a long way to avoiding corona but with traffic on the AT it would be hard to avoid most likely.

[JNI64]

As someone stated earlier it's in at least 12 or of the 54 country's of Africa warm weather isn't gonna stop this monster bug. And some of the doctors and scientists are thinking this thing is mutating to even a much stronger strain of virus. I seen a report where the covid-19 has a 30,000 letter genetic code and is changing by 1 code every 5 days. But I guess the good news is they did their first test vaccine on 45 people.

[HankIV]

Well at least the trail itself will get a year of respite. Privys can settle out a bit. Etc.

[saltysack]

Just got confirmation that the shuttle driver who I was chatting with about a possible shuttle (for the FHT) and said she was highly unlikely to do it now, since I'd be going to rural SC from super busy DC. So yeah, I'm really on the fence about doing anything at this point.

FHT would be a great option imo as no need for resupply. Assuming you can get a shuttle, FHT has a list of shuttlers on website. I used Jim Simpson, highly recommend. Maybe use a shuttler with a pick up ride in the bed or offer to wear a mask and glover during the ride...yea all this sounds crazy!!!!


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[One Half]

As someone stated earlier it's in at least 12 or of the 54 country's of Africa warm weather isn't gonna stop this monster bug. And some of the doctors and scientists are thinking this thing is mutating to even a much stronger strain of virus. I seen a report where the covid-19 has a 30,000 letter genetic code and is changing by 1 code every 5 days. But I guess the good news is they did their first test vaccine on 45 people.

I haven't bothered to look at the outbreak map for Africa but I do know that right now the eastern part of Africa is in the middle of it's rainy season. So not searing heat. Much like TX this time of year I would guess. We have hot days (tomorrow might be in the 80s) but lots of rain keeping the temp down from now until possibly May. Last year was really wet into middle May.

[FlyPaper]

I haven't bothered to look at the outbreak map for Africa but I do know that right now the eastern part of Africa is in the middle of it's rainy season. So not searing heat. Much like TX this time of year I would guess. We have hot days (tomorrow might be in the 80s) but lots of rain keeping the temp down from now until possibly May. Last year was really wet into middle May.

I would suspect that much of Africa would fall way behind on testing. Even more so than anywhere in the world, people will get sick, stay home, either recover or die and not be counted on any WHO stats.

[Crushed Grapes]

FHT would be a great option imo as no need for resupply. Assuming you can get a shuttle, FHT has a list of shuttlers on website. I used Jim Simpson, highly recommend. Maybe use a shuttler with a pick up ride in the bed or offer to wear a mask and glover during the ride...yea all this sounds crazy!!!!
I reached out to Nancy Carkhuff (listed on the website as a volunteer shuttler). Had a nice chat about the situation, but said she'd feel uncomfortable about giving a shuttle to someone from a highly populated area. I'm sure I could probably get away with fudging my original location but I feel that it's important to be upfront with people.

[saltysack]

I reached out to Nancy Carkhuff (listed on the website as a volunteer shuttler). Had a nice chat about the situation, but said she'd feel uncomfortable about giving a shuttle to someone from a highly populated area. I'm sure I could probably get away with fudging my original location but I feel that it's important to be upfront with people.

Totally agree and understand...


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[colorado_rob]

Just a quick editorial comment: The effect of COVID-19 on our hiking plans this year HAS to be the ultimate definition of a "first world, white people problem". BIG deal that we have to postpone our long distance hiking plans! BFD.

Count your blessings if you and yours are healthy and financially solvent

(and if you have plenty of TP ! :-) One windfall of coming off the PCT a few days ago is the many rolls of TP I had earmarked for my resupply boxes!)

[JNI64]

Just a quick editorial comment: The effect of COVID-19 on our hiking plans this year HAS to be the ultimate definition of a "first world, white people problem". BIG deal that we have to postpone our long distance hiking plans! BFD.

Count your blessings if you and yours are healthy and financially solvent

(and if you have plenty of TP ! :-) One windfall of coming off the PCT a few days ago is the many rolls of TP I had earmarked for my resupply boxes!)

Lol, so true that puts things into perspective. Well said cr.

[HankIV]

Lol, so true that puts things into perspective. Well said cr.

Same here!

[Slow Trek]

My Dad's generation lived through the depression. Millions were drafted for a fight we did not start,including my Dad. 416000 of them never came home. Those that stayed here lived with rationing and shortages of everything,doing jobs they had to,for the greater good. And it is asking too much of this generation to simply not go hiking? Really?

[Traveler]

Just a quick editorial comment: The effect of COVID-19 on our hiking plans this year HAS to be the ultimate definition of a "first world, white people problem". BIG deal that we have to postpone our long distance hiking plans! BFD.

This puts the LD hiking issue into pretty clear perspective against what is happening. I wonder if we will hear of any planned "hiker feeds" being changed to help small communities.

[skater]

This puts the LD hiking issue into pretty clear perspective against what is happening. I wonder if we will hear of any planned "hiker feeds" being changed to help small communities.
I'll settle for they just quit doing hiker feeds for now.

[Mockernut]

Hope this is not a duplicate...but I just received an email from the USFS that all AT trailheads in Georgia are now closed.

Here is a link:

https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/conf/news-events/?cid=FSEPRD716965



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[Teacher & Snacktime]

Well, that's that then. I noticed there's no anticipated ending date to this, so my plans for GA this season seem to be fully and finally ended. As I suspected.

[bigben]

I saw that and contacted them for a date. All they could say is "Until further notice, will reopen once its deemed safe to." I was planning on hiking May 11-17, but I too am gonna scrap it this year.

[Christoph]

Next year the AT is going to be totally overrun.

[Slo-go'en]

Next year the AT is going to be totally overrun.

That might be the case. And if little or no mantianace is done this year - removing blow downs, kicking sticks off the trail, cleaning water bars and the like, it could be quite the jungle too.

[Mockernut]

In the interim, the shelter mice may all starve to death!

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[JNI64]

In the interim, the shelter mice may all starve to death!

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Ok that's it I can't take anymore , y'all get back out there and feed them mice and the mice can feed the snakes...........(ripple effect)