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mweinstone
05-16-2006, 20:15
i belive we are in the hay days of thru hiking. there is a couple hiking the IAT right now,jessica and jason,who outfitted themselves from wallmart for 400 dollars for the both of them.and there doing fine thanx.and while i may have only made it to pearisburg this year due to money being short, i was carrying state of the art gear and wearing all patagucci.my point is that more people have access to more gear than ever before. and while no gear can hike for you,having these gear and price options make hiking the trail more doable for more folks.unfortunatly the rare folks like jess and jase are dwindling , and the people rich enough to thru hike are growing less interested in doing it.so i suggest a future where only 20 people make the trip and only 100 start . and i put forth the prediction that this will come about within a year or three. imagine a trail empty. its comming. im okay with this from a hikier point of veiw but its bad from a trail support,government money point of veiw.matthewski wonders.

Kembo
05-16-2006, 20:53
There have always been differences in the equipment that thru-hikers can afford. The equipment can make it a little more comfortable but the equipment or money isn’t what carries a hiker from Georgia to Maine. What drives a thru-hiker is in their minds and hearts. I don’t see that spirit waning. If anything, it’s growing stronger. The total number of thru’s may drop a little now and then but the core spirit will always be there. I can’t imagine the number of thru hikers ever dropping to 20 in one year again.

attroll
05-16-2006, 21:03
You don't have to be rich to attempt a thru hike the AT. I am defiantly not rich and I have not thru hiked the AT yet. I am one of the ones that have been experimenting with gear over the years to find what I like best. Yes some of my gear is expensive but it is really not that expensive. I think the most expensive part of gear you buy is a backpack, sleeping bag and your shelter. To me those are the most essential items and you do not want to skimp on them. Everything else you can get relatively cheap if you look around. There are many people like me who plan ahead for their thru hike and experiment with gear until they find what they like. I did not buy all my gear all at once. I bought something every year after reading and researching. I started out with cheap Wal-Mart and Kmart items until I found what I wanted. So I did not fork out a lot of money all at once. I have experimented with some expensive backpacks that I did not like and one was not a name brand that a lot of people said was a great frameless pack and I took the gamble and bought one and I do not like it. That was $185 I think I could have passed on and I wished I had. But still other swear by that pack.

I think the people to fork out a lot of money all at once seem to be the people who think that have to have name brand items when hiking the AT and do not do there research ahead of time. The only name brand Items I am concerned with are the three essentials that I mentioned above. Those are the three that are very important to me. I have yet to purchase my sleeping bag for my thru hike. That will be my most expensive item in my whole outfit because to me that is one item that will make or break my thru hike in the early stages. I like to sleep warm and if I am not warm I am not a happy camper. So I want one that is very light and warm enough for early March and will stay with me till probably the end of May.

white blaze
05-16-2006, 21:19
so i suggest a future where only 20 people make the trip and only 100 start . and i put forth the prediction that this will come about within a year or three. imagine a trail empty.

I wish you were right, but you forget that Hollywood has the AT in its sights with Robert Redford and Paul Newman pulling the trigger. In just a year or 2, there will be precious little solitude to be found anywhere on the AT, at any time.

max patch
05-16-2006, 21:27
so i suggest a future where only 20 people make the trip and only 100 start . and i put forth the prediction that this will come about within a year or three.

No fricking way.

Care to put your money where your mouth is?

the goat
05-16-2006, 21:52
wish your predictions would come true......but then reality sinks in.

in fact, you couldn't be more incorrect i'm afraid...

Frolicking Dinosaurs
05-16-2006, 22:05
While Hollyweird's focus will temporarily increase the traffic, I doubt it will last. Long distance hiking requires the willingness to forego many comforts and the dedication to remain focused on a goal during adversity. Few who follow the suggestions of Hollyweird will have this willingness and dedication - and those that do will become the newest members of this evolving community.

Tinker
05-16-2006, 22:09
I think that we're probably past the heydays of thruhiking. There will be thruhikers as long as there is a long trail to hike from end to end, but the average (note, I say average) American is less likely to embark on an arduous, ambitious, uncomfortable, and possibly dangerous journey today than they would have when I was in my twenties (the seventies). Comfort and convenience are sought after by the masses today (though the case may be made that the television commercials of the 50's did not dissuade the hikers of the 70's from hiking to "discover nature" or "discover themselves"). The draw of the AT used to be solitude and nature. More and more I see roving bands of town-bound party hounds (not that there haven't always been some). Completing a thruhike on the AT isn't the romantic notion that it used to be to me. Reality has dulled the romance. I will welcome more solitude on the trail, though that solitude will come at a cost. Dollars spent maintaining the trail may find their way to other causes. Volunteers may become fewer and farther between. It is up to those who really care for the trail, as it always has been, to give it a future.

Alligator
05-16-2006, 22:34
"...
Teach your children well
..."

Frolicking Dinosaurs
05-16-2006, 22:39
"...
And feed them on your dreams
...."

KirkMcquest
05-16-2006, 23:15
I wish you were right, but you forget that Hollywood has the AT in its sights with Robert Redford and Paul Newman pulling the trigger. In just a year or 2, there will be precious little solitude to be found anywhere on the AT, at any time.

I agree. We are probably experiencing the last few years of solitude that will be available on the at, not the other way around.

Tinker
05-16-2006, 23:35
My favorite line from Bryson's book, or possibly "I don't know, elevators, maybe".

They Trail might get crowded if Hollywood does a flick on it, but it won't be for long.

Romance is fleeting.

Commitment endures.

Moon Monster
05-17-2006, 00:54
I wish you were right, but you forget that Hollywood has the AT in its sights with Robert Redford and Paul Newman pulling the trigger. In just a year or 2, there will be precious little solitude to be found anywhere on the AT, at any time.

There has been no real news on this proposed movie adaptation since August, and even the first announcement was just a fleeting couple of quotes from Redford. In all possibility, this movie may never happen.

rhjanes
05-17-2006, 09:33
There has been no real news on this proposed movie adaptation since August, and even the first announcement was just a fleeting couple of quotes from Redford. In all possibility, this movie may never happen.

I think the movie HAS to be in smell-a-rama (aroma??) And forget Newman/Redford. Tom Cruise and Jerry Springer. Throw in a hot chick. Don't forget the smell. Sure way to end their careers!!!! :banana

weary
05-17-2006, 09:39
I agree. We are probably experiencing the last few years of solitude that will be available on the at, not the other way around.
I suspect solitude will be around for a bit longer, especially during the off seasons. In 35 years of winter backpacking either on or near the Appalachian Trail in Maine I saw a total of maybe seven other winter backbackers

It is encougaging to note that only a few of the people we invited to join our treks ever came back a second time.

Weary

Jaybird
05-17-2006, 09:40
i belive we are in the hay days of thru hiking. there is a couple hiking the IAT right now,jessica and jason,who outfitted themselves from wallmart for 400 dollars for the both of them.and there doing fine........blah,blah,blah,.......... .................................................. ...........unfortunatly the rare folks like jess and jase are dwindling , and the people rich enough to thru hike are growing less interested in doing it.so i suggest a future where only 20 people make the trip and only 100 start ........etc,etc,etc,.



Man, are you giving a BLEAK picture of the hiking scene..or WHAT?

i hope your dim viewpoint is totally incorrect!

RICH enuff to hike the trail?????
who've you been listening to?:D

lobster
05-17-2006, 09:53
Both the 20 thruhiker prediction and the oodles of folks on the AT because of a movie are fantasies. If there was a movie, there likely would be an uptick, but things would settle down after just 2-3 years and thru-hiker attempts would get back to a narrow range.

Squeaky 2
05-17-2006, 10:00
just wait till "squeaky the movie" hits Banff and other film festivals.
then you will see a decline alright! hahaha

kyhipo
05-17-2006, 10:00
well one must have hiker blood in them to be a hiker!We are a breed of our own,like Levis 501 button flys I still wear them they come out of style and come back.I enjoy many things in life,but the one thing that always stays on my mind is my next hike:D .I think rich,poor, rebell ,or non rebell educated or uneducated the thru hikers long distant hikers are forever,I remember the rainbows when I was a kid,never left me just taking a walk where they wanted too free to wander.ky

fiddlehead
05-17-2006, 21:25
World population grows daily and it's not going to stop.
The planet doesn't get any bigger to accomodate.
The numbers will grow, especially on the AT.
The hope that there will only be 20 a year thru-hiking will only be a fantasy.
Go find other trails if that's your wish. They're out there.
Has anyone ever hiked in Korea? or Japan? You'll find single file lines of hikers in these places in the high season, because Asia is more overpopulated than the US but the US is growing and so will the hikers.

rhjanes
05-18-2006, 11:17
just wait till "squeaky the movie" hits Banff and other film festivals.
then you will see a decline alright! hahaha

sub-40 minute movie? :D

also in smell-a-roma

CaptChaos
05-19-2006, 11:40
Hello All:

I hope that the number of hikers does not drop to such a small level for the AT.

But, at the same time, I hope that the total numbers do not jump to the point that we damage the AT and then by our actions invite the NPS or the USFS into the mix. Having watched them for years as I first went to college to be a park ranger instead of my IT background, I can tell you that we don't need to give either of these two govt agencies a reason to apply their S.W.A.G approach to management to the trail.

As I say this I have to remind myself that over the past 8 years that I have hiked around the Smokies that there have been nights at Russell Fields Shelter outside cooking dinner that the stench of the privy area or toliet area, (for those of you who do not know, there is no privy at Russell Fields, the shelter sits atop a ridge, on the TN side of the slope is the spring, on the NC side of the slope is the tolet area and you do your business in cat holes), can almost make you decide not to go ahead and cook and just eat a candy bar or jerky and call it a night. Been there and done that one myself.

So I know that I am not pointing out anything that we all know already, but there is a balance that we have to maintain. Granted, going North the Smokies gets a lot of hikers and the public as well since it is a National Park, and maybe the in the middle of the AT it is not so bad.

Just my 2 cents don't know if I have even made the point that I wanted to make myself but I hope that I did.

John

mweinstone
05-19-2006, 17:51
by rich i ment not like me, on welfare a couple times when i was younger and making good money the last 5 years only.and i dont hope or want my prediction to happen. i want the situation to stay as it has been since i was a kid (16 in 1976) ,statis quo, ups and downs in the numbers or thru attempts ,but up and down within a small range. its never been less than 50 in my hiking lifetime and never much more than a couple thousand. this is perfect. if 5000 thru atempts were made in a season there would be a major shift to tenting. and if there comes a season where there are 100 thru attempts,ther will be a shift to knowing alot more people around you on the trail. and if one day there arent enough trail maintainers, there will be carried in our packs a clippers and a bowsaw. hiker blood is a rare blood and we must not marry non hikers if we are to go fourth and multiply!matthewski gets weird online.

Just a Hiker
05-19-2006, 19:05
i belive we are in the hay days of thru hiking. there is a couple hiking the IAT right now,jessica and jason,who outfitted themselves from wallmart for 400 dollars for the both of them.and there doing fine thanx.and while i may have only made it to pearisburg this year due to money being short, i was carrying state of the art gear and wearing all patagucci.my point is that more people have access to more gear than ever before. and while no gear can hike for you,having these gear and price options make hiking the trail more doable for more folks.unfortunatly the rare folks like jess and jase are dwindling , and the people rich enough to thru hike are growing less interested in doing it.so i suggest a future where only 20 people make the trip and only 100 start . and i put forth the prediction that this will come about within a year or three. imagine a trail empty. its comming. im okay with this from a hikier point of veiw but its bad from a trail support,government money point of veiw.matthewski wonders.


I was just browsing the internet one last time before I left for Baxter State Park to begin another SOBO thru-hike, when I came across this thread. I feel compelled to respond to this because of the issues brought up in many of the posts. First of all, the gear a person hikes with has nothing to with whether or not they complete their thru-hike. However, the willingness to get up every morning and walk has everything to do with it.

The numbers of hikers, the gear and the cost of a pack of ramen noodles on the AT may change from year to year, but the "Magic" of the AT will remain the same every year. I personally feel that if a hiker finds that "Magic" they will complete their hike regardless of their gear or how much money they have to spend along the trail. And even if they don't finish, that's okay too because atleast that person got out there and tried to find that "Magic". That's why there are so many people finding themselves in Amicolola State Park on cold March and April mornings every year.......They are in search of that "Magic", but more importantly they are in search of answers about their own lives; and if they hike far enough, they may even find some of those answers.

I have spent the better part of each year on the AT since 2001, and what I know to be true is that the AT has alot of friends. And those friends aren't going to let the AT be abused, exploited or overused in any way. If Robert Redford wants to make a movie about the AT, let him make his movie. I am sure it will be complete fiction just like Bill Bryson's book was. I am also sure the movie would peak interest in the trail just like Bill Bryson's book did. But heres the thing, that okay! Because the more people who get involved in the AT, the better. The AT can always use more friends because in case you didn't notice, many of the trail maintainers along the AT are getting up there in years and we need some new blood to help carry on the traditions of the AT.

I guess my overall point is that that Appalachian Trail is going to be just fine. She might get bruised on occasion, but she'll always have her "Magic" for anyone who wants it.

My personal comment to Mweinstone is this.....if you were planning a thru-hike this year but ran out of money in Pearisburg, VA then I am sorry that you didn't get to find your "Magic". Having said that, I will issue you this challenge. If you really want to know what it's like to finish a thru-hike, and if you really want your life to change for the better, and if you are willing to get up every morning and walk, then I'll pay for your food the rest of the way to Maine. Thank You. Just a Hiker

mweinstone
05-19-2006, 19:58
i saved 5 months rent and paid in advance the utilitys and left with enough to finnish if and i stress if,i were to borrow an additional amount from a credit card . the issue is i didnt want to hike on borrowed cash. im old fashoned and im starting in amacalola next feb 18th again. this is the calm clear decision i made on the trail 3 weeks ago. to stop now before i got into debt. and to return to work and have the whole year to save and try again. i was broke and in debt for a while and worked long and hard to get out of it. when the 06 season came i borrowed what i needed and split for ga. i couldnt wait another year and i was okay then with my plan.after 600 miles i was having a hard time as my saved money was gone and my borrowed money seemed to go even faster. so im allready 3000 dollars up since returning and with my hiker ways still freash, im doing alot less spending and alot more working and saving. this way i can hike in 07 with a clear concience.and return debt free with a nest egg. remember ,i must plan around the fact that im alone in this world without a support team. and also know that since i was 16 ive said i would hike this trail the rest of my life if i could. and im still on track .and this years thrubees are the best and all my love to them.i posted a pic of myself on the last day in pearisburg in my gallery.

Programbo
05-19-2006, 20:09
Let me get this straight...You find this outrageously overcrowded walking Spring Break of a reality tv show AT we have now as the "Hay days" of hiking?????...Ack!..Why back in my day... :p

mweinstone
05-20-2006, 13:44
i ment hay day of oppurtunity not hay days of hiker mentality. i also agree its a weird mix of competition and undereating with no hot drinks and too many people with a look of severe pain on their faces while hiking with crutches for some reason and wearing headphones for goodness sake.not to mention the 99% rate of non minimum impactos and the inability to stop talking gear.

Vi+
05-21-2006, 14:42
Mweinstone,

You advise the following (Post #1):

“we are in the hay days of thru hiking.”

How do you define “the hay days?” I hope a good definition would exceed simply the number of declared “Thru-Hikers?”

“the rare folks like jess and jase are dwindling”

Have you polled hiking styles?

“the people rich enough to thru hike are growing less interested in doing it.”

How much money makes someone “rich enough?”

To know the “rich enough” are “growing less interested” we must both answer the previous question, and determine it is either their number which is diminishing, or at least that they represent the greatest portion of the total number of the diminshing.

“a future where only 20 people make the trip and only 100 start.”

I can’t imagine there won't be more than 100 people in the world, who are sufficiently excited each year, by the prospect of enjoying six months of such solitude they could resist beginning a Thru-Hike.

“this will come about within a year or three.”

I have not read a long term, or complex, population prediction which has actually come to pass. People change over time. Governments change.

“its bad from a trail support,government money point of veiw.”

Contracts and purchases already made along the AT corridor should ensure the continuation of most of the course over which the AT traverses.

Ha, ha, ha. Oh, that last paragraph was a good one. I was so naive.

Everything changes. People who loudly extol religious freedom, while trying to impose their singular notion of religion upon us, wield enormous influence on our political process. We have a political party, which proudly claims it supports our individual rights, passing legislation directing our most personal decisions. We are in a “war” we never declared - What is the date we actually declared war? - against the wrong country - if there is a “right” country. We provided massive tax breaks to the oil industry at a time when they were doing quite well, which subsequently posted predictable record breaking profits. We are the only industrialized nation without national health care, cheering the benefits of a deeply flawed medical insurance program.

It’s bad right now, and we’re, as you say, “in the hay days of thru hiking.” I’m not so worried by the drop in people Thru-Hiking the AT. They have always been only a small minority of trail users. I’m more worried about the rest of us.

There are people who will only dream of a Thru-Hike, who will never even start. To them, “dream on.’ There is no harm. Only hope. The mere existence of the AT permits hopes and dreams. There are people who will begin, but not complete their Thru-Hike for a great variety of reasons. Each will gain something from the attempt. There are a few who will dream the dream and hike the hike. Excellent. They keep many of us going.

I make my own prediction: Some things will improve; some things will deteriorate, and; some things will remain unchanged. For a while.

weary
05-21-2006, 15:12
Mweinstone,

.....I make my own prediction: Some things will improve; some things will deteriorate, and; some things will remain unchanged. For a while.
50 plus years ago 10 days into basic training for the Korean War, after 12 hours of ducking live bullets while crawling through New Jersey winter mud, a voice in the dark barracks woke us up:

"Cheer up fellows," it declared in a vague french canadian accent, "things will go along like this for awhile -- and then they'll get worse."

Weary

Tin Man
05-21-2006, 15:14
just wait till "squeaky the movie" hits Banff and other film festivals.
then you will see a decline alright! hahaha

I think your record hike will draw a lot of attention to the trail and we may see a surge in fitness buffs, as well as ordinary buffs, who want to get a feel for just what you accomplished. Perhaps these newbies to the trail will only go out for a day or a week, but I think there will be more traffic, not less, because of your hike. Go Squeaky!