View Full Version : 2006 Thru hiker Statistics
The ATC just updated its 2006 thru hiker statistics as of September 26.
Springer Mountain 1150
Neels Gap (30 mi.) 1076 (94%)
Harpers Ferry (1000 mi.) 659 (57%)
Katahdin (2175 mi.) 119 (10%)
Last year, of the 1392 starters, 1156 (or 83%) reached Neels Gap, 682 (or 49%) reached Harpers Ferry and 352 (or 25%) reached Katahdin.
I thought the completion rate this year looked low so I checked on Trail Journals and noted that that a hiker who finished at Katahdin on September 23 said that she was the 297th person to finish out of those who started from Springer Mountain. That translates to a 25.8% completion rate. With a few more weeks of northbounders heading for Katahdin, this could be a record-breaking year for thru hiker completions. Congratulations to all those in the class of 2006 -- whether you completed 50 miles or 2175! :banana
I would take those statistics as a grain of salt.
In 2001, when I hiked, several hikers I met and hiked with had gotten off the trail and back on skipping sections. When the list of those compleating a thru, published in the AT News, came out I was suprized to see their names listed. One of them listed was a priest and I know he skipped at least 300mi. so that he could return home before his visa expired.:rolleyes:
Brushy Sage
09-28-2006, 10:53
2006 thru hiker "Mad Dog" finished on Aug 19 according to the Sept 28 Asheville paper:
www.citizen-times.com
Frolicking Dinosaurs
09-28-2006, 11:38
And some don't get registered at Springer. When the male dino and I did Springer, the guy taking down info was too busy talking to the kids to take down our names.
Thanks for the link to the article about Mad Dog's hike, Brushy Sage. Once I arrived at the site, there were a few more links to some audio interviews with him -- added bonus.
Alligator
09-28-2006, 15:16
And some don't get registered at Springer. When the male dino and I did Springer, the guy taking down info was too busy talking to the kids to take down our names.The Springer numbers provided by ATC are estimated by Neels Gap numbers assuming a 15% dropout rate.
Frolicking Dinosaurs
09-28-2006, 15:23
The Springer numbers provided by ATC are estimated by Neels Gap numbers assuming a 15% dropout rate.
The ATC just updated its 2006 thru hiker statistics as of September 26.
Springer Mountain 1150
Neels Gap (30 mi.) 1076 (94%)
Harpers Ferry (1000 mi.) 659 (57%)
Katahdin (2175 mi.) 119 (10%)
Not this time.
Alligator
09-28-2006, 15:34
Not this time.Good call.
I think you ought to get a hold of them and see what's up:sun .
http://www.appalachiantrail.org/site/c.jkLXJ8MQKtH/b.851153/k.580C/2000Milers_Where_Do_We_Get_the_Numbers.htm
Alligator
09-28-2006, 15:54
I emailed them. Who knows if they'll get back to me. 2005 was off too.
Brushy Sage
09-28-2006, 18:57
Thanks for the link to the article about Mad Dog's hike, Brushy Sage. Once I arrived at the site, there were a few more links to some audio interviews with him -- added bonus.
I just found those myself. They were put on later this afternoon. Nice coverage.
TJ aka Teej
09-28-2006, 19:31
on Trail Journals and noted that that a hiker who finished at Katahdin on September 23 said that she was the 297th person to finish out of those who started from Springer Mountain.The number from Baxter jives with the number from the Kennebec Ferry. Only about 2/3s of the finishing northbounders take the ATC reporting form from the Rangers when it's offered to them at the Park. There was about 500 GAMErs checked in with the Ranger last year.
TJ aka Teej
09-28-2006, 19:42
You believe the offhand, heresay statistics from someone over the actual statistics of the ATC? This doesn't make much sense. I know there are serious [fatal?] flaws with each set of statistics and the data collection methods, but I'm more inclined to believe what the ATC says rather than what "some girl who wrote in her trail journal who said she was #297.The BSP Rangers keep stats for Park and ATC use, and tell each hiker checking in with them what number they are. If the Ranger told her she was #297, she was #297. The KSC Rangers keep track of sobos, flippers, 100 Milers, etc., too. Steve the Ferryman will tell you what number you are too. The "actual statistics of the ATC" only reflect the number of reported hikes. None of these numbers should be taken as a count of "pure" AT thru-hikes.
briarpatch
09-28-2006, 19:44
I emailed them. Who knows if they'll get back to me. 2005 was off too.
Many Sleeps, the Caretaker for Springer this year, kept several types of numbers for the ATC this year (# of thrus, # of day hikers, how many folks came up the approach trail, etc.). He was on site for 5 days per week from Feb to May, so he missed 2 days worth of hikers per week (generally mon and tue or tue and wed, based on his working days). I don't know if the ATC estimated the missed days, or if they were left out of the statistics.
Alligator
09-28-2006, 20:44
Many Sleeps, the Caretaker for Springer this year, kept several types of numbers for the ATC this year (# of thrus, # of day hikers, how many folks came up the approach trail, etc.). He was on site for 5 days per week from Feb to May, so he missed 2 days worth of hikers per week (generally mon and tue or tue and wed, based on his working days). I don't know if the ATC estimated the missed days, or if they were left out of the statistics.I'd heard they had someone there. Maybe they decided to estimate the Springer counts differently. I was just going by what they said on their website as to how they estimate the counts.
mweinstone
09-29-2006, 23:10
i diddnt know about signing in at springer . not the vis center nor the summit can. i never thaught about it .i sign regesters about 3 times a week or less.some guy caugh up to me and said he followed my entrys. he thaught i was really bookin! he thaught i signed them each day.
Alligator
10-04-2006, 14:27
I'd heard they had someone there. Maybe they decided to estimate the Springer counts differently. I was just going by what they said on their website as to how they estimate the counts.
It appears that the ATC has decided to change the way they estimate the dropout rate. This in response to my question about why the Springer numbers did not follow the 15% dropout rate.
We recently re-calculated the dropout rate based on comparison of
numbers from Amicalola Falls State Park, the Springer Mountain
caretaker, and Neels Gap. We'll have to review what we say on our web
page to bring that up to date.
The ATC just updated its 2006 thru hiker statistics as of September 26.
Springer Mountain 1150
Neels Gap (30 mi.) 1076 (94%)
Harpers Ferry (1000 mi.) 659 (57%)
Katahdin (2175 mi.) 119 (10%)
I wonder about those numbers. They sound awful low. All along the trail I heard that there were 3,000 starters. I was on Springer the night of March 17, and there were 30 people in shelters on tents up there that night alone. Again, that was March 17, not April 1.
At Harper's Ferry they assigned me #555. I'm pretty sure there were more than 104 people behind me.
Lone Wolf
10-12-2006, 12:30
Same every year. There are no exact numbers. Nobody really knows.
The ATC just updated its 2006 thru hiker statistics as of September 26.
Springer Mountain 1150
Neels Gap (30 mi.) 1076 (94%)
Harpers Ferry (1000 mi.) 659 (57%)
Katahdin (2175 mi.) 119 (10%)
NUMBERS, numbers, NUMBERS!....
one boot in front of the other....all the way!
wave to me as you hike by me in VA next year!:D
Good luck with your hike.
I'll be waving Jaybird. Keep watchin for me.
ereynolds
10-12-2006, 14:43
I finished Oct 4 and was given number 400 at the ranger station @ Katahdin Stream Campground.
TJ aka Teej
10-12-2006, 17:07
I finished Oct 4 and was given number 400 at the ranger station @ Katahdin Stream Campground.
Welcome to WhiteBlaze! What class day did you have?
the_iceman
10-14-2006, 15:32
While it does seem unlikely that the completion rate went up 10% in just 5 short years could the number of dishonest people have increased by 10% in 5 years? It is also odd that the southbound number remained absolutely flat for the same time period.
The trail is still 2,175 miles long, give or take a few miles, and it still goes over pretty much the same mountains. It still rains about 1/3 of the time. From a terrain and weather stand point the trail is just as hard to hike as it was 20 years ago. Switchbacks make the grade less but the climb longer. There are days I much prefer the head-on assault and getting the climb behind me. Switchbacks are for trail preservation rather that hiker pleasure.
But most importantly, on an individual basis, one’s odds of completing the hike probably remain exactly the same. While it may be easier to get information and prepare for a hike that is no guarantee that people will actually be better prepared. Equipment is better and lighter but people are still finishing using older and relatively heavy gear.
I have also run into a number of people on the trail that have told me they were thru hikers and in the course of conversation mention skipping whole states or major mountain sections. I think this really reflects the lack of ethics so prevalent in today’s society and the lack of a strong “no short cuts, no cheating” emphasis by a major governing body.
Today’s ultra liberal laissez faire society allows each of us to define the rules as to what we feel is right. I have sectioned hiked for 40 years and I think the number of people taking shortcuts has greatly increased while at the same time they see absolutely nothing wrong with it. HYOH.
The “hike your own hike” slogan is used as a defense to allow someone who yellow blazed from Georgia to Maine to say it was a thru hike. Is it right? Who is to say? There is no test to designate a “True” thru hiker. No check points along the way. The ATC has the 2,000 miler status but many people probably apply that are not qualified while many quailed people do not bother.
The hike has not changed much but society and our values as a nation sure have. It is today's trail socitety that defines what a thru hiker is.