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Skipper the Eyechild
02-10-2007, 18:26
Hi, I was just wondering if anyone had any idea of how (if at all) the weather is going to be different this year, what with it being the "el nino" and all.

Not being fully aware of how such weather systems work, does it just make the weather more extreme, i.e. the cold colder and hot hotter, or is there likely to be real out of the blue freak weather happenings?

Actually, on a weather note, I watched with some supprise on ABC News (which is shown late at night over here) that there were 6 foot drifts of snow in New York State. The last few days here in Blighty we've had about 6 inches of snow which was more than I had ever seen in my life. Ahh, the mediocrity of British weather...

Any information would be very interseting. Cheers.

Tom

rafe
02-10-2007, 18:32
Actually, on a weather note, I watched with some supprise on ABC News (which is shown late at night over here) that there were 6 foot drifts of snow in New York State.

Those six foot drifts are in a very localized area. Parts of upstate New York are subject to "lake effect" where westerly winds blow over Lake Ontario or Lake Erie. Move another 20 miles east or south of these areas and the effect is much diminished.

REBELYELL
02-10-2007, 19:23
Yep we are buried in Stracuse NY.....Come on March I'm waiting....!

Stonewall
02-10-2007, 19:24
Anyone know what the farmers almanac says?

REBELYELL
02-10-2007, 19:25
Syracuse....SP!

Stonewall
02-10-2007, 19:57
Hehe i just looked up the Farmers Almanac on-line and here is what it perdicts for the south in Feb and March

February 2007
1st-3rd. A few showers, then turning fair, colder. 4th-7th. Generally fair, chilly days, cold nights, widespread frost; chilly in Miami for Super Bowl XLI. 8th-11th. Snow Tennessee, mountains North Carolina. Mixed snow, sleet, rain parts of northern Mississippi, Alabama. Chilly rain south. Clearing, turning very cold all sections by the 11th, with frosts northern and central Florida. 12th-15th. Wet weather, then fair skies. 16th-19th. Fair weather continues. 20th-23rd. Snow Tennessee, parts of North Carolina, with possible accumulations. 24th-28th. Showery, then fair, colder, widespread frosts.


March 2007
1st-3rd. Fair skies. 4th-7th. Stormy conditions, then a return to fair weather. 8th-11th. Showery along Gulf Coast. Fair elsewhere. 12th-15th. Showers for Florida, Georgia north, then clearing. 16th-19th. Heavy rain, especially southern, central Florida. 20th-23rd. Fair. 24th-27th. Light rain, then turning fair and cold. 28th-31st. Fair, still cold.

Boat Drinks
02-10-2007, 21:24
My source, local weather guy-golf buddy, said he predicts a warmer, but wetter spring for GA-NC.... For what thats worth. I pick on him all the time regarding the "Weather Prediction" bidness and how much time the local network affiliate dedicates to the brodcasts, he laughs and says, yeah, we pretty much don't have a clue, But we do have a nice Titan Doppler radar and all......:sun :D

4eyedbuzzard
02-10-2007, 21:31
The weather for 2007?

There's gonna bet a LOT of it. :D

My two rules: Never start a hike or go off the first tee if it's ALREADY raining.

Boat Drinks
02-10-2007, 21:34
The weather for 2007?

There's gonna bet a LOT of it. :D

My two rules: Never start a hike or go off the first tee if it's ALREADY raining.


Oh, man. In Florida, thats a BIG NO-NO. YOU check the radar for RED (radar) rain and lightning, otherwise, YOU GO!!!! LOL:eek: Otherwise you may lose your Tee time for a good couple hours!!!:(

budman5
02-11-2007, 02:10
Global warming is predicted..expect the worst and then hike as you would normally....

Moon Monster
02-11-2007, 17:04
Here's how historical el Ninos have affected US climate:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats2/enso/elnino/

Blissful
02-11-2007, 21:35
I'm expecting whatever. Got a down jacket, silk undies. Yaktraxs to get me down those icy hills. And a new silk liner to lower my sleeping bag to the single digits.

eyewall
02-13-2007, 01:37
Check here for the 90 day forecasts, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/index.html
Looks like Normal to Above for temps.

Blissful
02-13-2007, 23:14
Well, it's sleeting and freezing rain like crazy here right now. But at least its okay down south, just rain. Hoping and praying there are no March snowstorms.

ScottP
02-13-2007, 23:24
You'll be on the trail for long enough that you'll see a little bit of everything. If you're starting before may 1st you might catch the tail end of winter--you never know. If you're starting before april 1st you will probably catch some of winter. The last week of march was nasty cold and snowy last year.

Blissful
02-19-2007, 01:23
Long range weather looks pretty good down in GA. And there should be serious melting of any ice this weekend. Good as I wanted to camp under the hemlocks at Stover Creek my first night out and not on an ice patch.

freefall
02-19-2007, 02:21
NOAA's temp. and precip. charts of historical El Niņo data.
http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/forecast.html

Blissful
02-22-2007, 18:46
Hope this weather outlook doesn't change.
Dahlonega forecast for our start March 1st as of right now -
Cloudy, Temp 66
and temps in the sixties for next few days (or 50s in the mtns) and clear weather
:)
(But I know, no rain no Maine)

Rocketman
02-26-2007, 00:10
[quote=Skipper the Eyechild;320062]Hi, I was just wondering if anyone had any idea of how (if at all) the weather is going to be different this year, what with it being the "el nino" and all.

Any information would be very interseting. Cheers.



The link below is to the long range forecast information by NOAA. For June, July and August the 90 day forecast for the Appalachian Trail region is a modest chance of above average temperatures. The precipitation forecast has no indication of higher normal or lower chances of rain - equal chances. There is no good reason to expect higher or lower precipitation at this time.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead04/off_index.html

Jim