View Full Version : If I don't get to "insert place here" by certain date...
when should I consider a flip flop.
I can't for the life of me find this information but I know it's out there somewhere.
Thanks
If you reach Harpers Ferry much past July 4th and are unable or unwilling to push 20 mile days through Pennsylvania, flip to Katahdin and hike south would be my advice. Or flip to Kent, hike north and then south from Kent to HF.
max patch
03-13-2007, 22:47
Don't sweat it.
After a few months you'll know your pace and simple arithmetic can tell you if you are on track to finish by mid October or not.
Lone Wolf
03-13-2007, 22:49
Don't sweat it.
After a few months you'll know your pace and simple arithmetic can tell you if you are on track to finish by mid October or not.
yup. that's the best advice. folks telling you dates won't help much.
Jack Tarlin
03-13-2007, 22:54
Gotta disagree with my friend Sly here......you could leave Harpers around the 4th of July and STILL make it to Katahdin by the second week in October, averaging around 12.5 miles a day, not 20. (It's 1165 miles from Harpers to Baxter, and you'd have say 95-96 days to do it, and you'd STILL finish by the 10th of October). So I think you can postpone your "flip" date well past Harpers Ferry unless you arrive well after the middle of July.
That being said, it takes MOST folks 85-95 days to get from Harpers to Katahdin. Here's a rough picture of time, remember this is MOST folks.
*It takes 2-3 days to cover Maryland, in most cases 3
*Call it 15-19 for Pennsylvania
*10-12 for NJ/NY
*2-3 for Connecticut
*5-6 for MA
*9-10 for VT
*11-13 for NH
*22-26 for Maine.
From my observations, it takes most folks pretty close to 50 days to Katahdin from the MA/VT border. If you're not going to be that far by then, then I'd think about flipping. (And most folks summit Katahdin 37-38 dys after they leave Hanover).
Last advice.....don't freak out and flip too early, but don't put off your decision too late, either, for example, you don't want to be hiking in the White Mountains after the middle of October unless you REALLY know what you're doing and are prepared for some scary weather; likewise, parts of Maine can be pretty hairy if you wait too long. Keep in mind that you can stay on the Trail in southern New England until December if necessary.
Gotta disagree with my friend Sly here......you could leave Harpers around the 4th of July and STILL make it to Katahdin by the second week in October, averaging around 12.5 miles a day, not 20. .
Why am I not surprised. I didn't say average 20 the rest of the way but through PA, knowing full well the rest of the trail would be harder. Also, although unpronounced, I think it's best to finish by the 1st of October, and not push the 15th. Add a few days off, after they finish PA, they still need to average 15 miles per day or so.
Thanks :)
I am not a strong/fast hiker and just wanted some kind of guideline. I would hate to get to a certain point and realize it is too late to make it....
although I think it would be a bit anti-climatic to do a flip flop, but that's just me.
When do you plan on starting?
Jack Tarlin
03-13-2007, 23:09
I'm not saying push the 15th of October.
It's 1165 miles from Harpers to Katahdin.
One could leave Harper's as late as 8 July and make it to Katahdin by 1 October averaging 13.5m a day, not 15.
And the "time chart" I listed above actually inculdes half and full days off.
I honestly think most folks "panoc" and flip too soon. As long as you're thru Harpers by the middle of July you should be fine.
Lone Wolf
03-13-2007, 23:11
finishing anywhere else but Katahdin is anti-climatic.
that's bs. just being outdoors on any mountain is good. katahdin is overrated and usually crowded.
I'm not saying push the 15th of October.
It's 1165 miles from Harpers to Katahdin.
One could leave Harper's as late as 8 July and make it to Katahdin by 1 October averaging 13.5m a day, not 15.
And the "time chart" I listed above actually inculdes half and full days off.
I honestly think most folks "panoc" and flip too soon. As long as you're thru Harpers by the middle of July you should be fine.
Ah, what if they're only averaging 12 miles per day. I don't see any advantage in flipping later than sooner.
that's bs. just being outdoors on any mountain is good. katahdin is overrated and usually crowded.
Yeah sure just being outdoors is great, but finishing a hike on Katahdin is superb. They don't call it the Greatest Mountain for nothing!
Jack Tarlin
03-13-2007, 23:37
The chief advantage of flipping later Sly, is probably psychological.
Would you want to stand on Katahdin knowing you still had 1165 miles to do, or less than 500 (say Katahdin back to Hanover)?
I dunno about you, but if I hit the summit of Katahdin and started downhill, knowing I still has more than 50% of the Trail left to do, it'd be kinda discouraging.
But only 400-600 miles left.....or less....that I could handle.
But to each their own.
Plus....would you rather finish the Trail somewhere beautiful, like Vermont, or in some place really thrilling like Wind Gap PA?
To each their own, but I wouldn't flip south of New England unless I had no choice.
OK, say you're able to hike NH and ME in forty days, the problem with flipping later than sooner is still the weather. Atleast when you flip sooner and finish in the mid Atlantic, you shouldn't be faced with freezing cold and snow.
I always thought the Doyle would make a good ending.
Jack Tarlin
03-13-2007, 23:53
Read my first post in this thread Sly and you'll see that I addressed that, i.e. the risk of flippping too late.
But to each their own.
I know. Personally I wouldn't flip until i was frozen stiff and then it would be too late.
I would just bounce ahead a little bit when I realized I wasn't gonna make the 15th, and then go back and fill in the gap after summitting K. At a certain point you'll kind of realize what's in front of you is just too much to make K by the 15th, just jump forward, it'll likely not be more than a hundred miles unless something really slows you down like an injury or what have you...so you'll only have to get a ride that far backwards and then southbound or something. I wouldn't want to do a big flip flop for some reason...
So many variables in this question. A very important one is the date you leave Springer. Someone arriving in Harpers Ferry on July 10 has little to worry about if she left Springer May 1 but much to worry about (if a continuous NOBO thru-hike is important to her) if she left on March 1. So as Sly and Jack have been saying, hiking pace is important. There is a fairly simple way to gauge this.
If you have the "do I need to flip-flop?" question on your mind just note when you arrive at Harpers Ferry how many hiking days it took you to get there from Waynesboro (a distance of around 160 miles). Exclude zero days, since this can vary randomly in such a short stretch, but just figure out your hiking days. If you took 10 hiking days to go this distance, your fulcrum date is July 12. What I mean by that is if you have arrived at or within a day or two of this date, you are right on the edge as to whether you are likely to get to Katahdin by around Oct. 10. So if you are a hiker taking ten hiking days for this section and you arrive at Harpers Ferry significantly before July 12 you are looking good. Arrive much later than this and you might want to start thinking about the flip-flop.
As Jack points out, there's no need to jump the gun and decide too early, but if you leave Harpers Ferry much after your fulcrum date and find that by Delaware Water Gap you have not improved your miles per hiking day over the previous section from Waynesboro to Harpers Ferry, or cut down on your frequency of zero days, there is a really good chance you are going to want to flip at some point.
Here is your fulcrum date if the number of HIKING days you have taken to get from Waynesboro to Harpers Ferry is:
7 days, fulcrum is Aug. 7
8 days, your fulcrum is July 31
9 days, your fulcrum is July 21
10 days, your fulcrum is July 12
11 days, your fulcrum is July 3
12 days, your fulcrum is June 23
13 days, your fulcrum is June 14
14 days, your fulcrum is June 5
As you can see, someone hiking a lot slower needs to be in Harpers Ferry sooner. Of course all of this assumes the time proportions between sections are about the same for you as past thru-hikers (I've based this on my hiking rates study), that you are taking a fairly "typical" number of zero days, that nothing takes you away from the trail for large chunks of time after Harpers Ferry etc. But this should at least give you a rough idea.
When do you plan on starting?
April 2nd or 3rd
Thanks for all the input guys.
Not to add more pressure, but just as something to keep in mind - the 26th Gathering will be in PA October 6th to 8th. I've never been to one, but it seems like a great event to attend and especially if you just completed or are in the midst of your thru.
April 2nd or 3rd
Thanks for all the input guys.
With that start-date, you need a long-term average of a bit over 12 miles per day to get to Katahdin by October 1. If you take one zero day every week, you need (7/6)*12 (=14) miles per day on the other six days. "Zero days" play hell with your averages. But back in the "real world" most folks get one or two days off per week...
Jack Tarlin
03-14-2007, 15:41
Just wanted to say I can't think of anyone on this website who so consistently provides useful, thoughtful, well-written advice as Mapman.
I wish he would post more often.
Just wanted to say I can't think of anyone on this website who so consistently provides useful, thoughtful, well-written advice as Mapman.
I wish he would post more often.
I just finished rereading his great descriptive article on hiking rates (http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php?t=12885). Yep, love this stuff. Thanks Map Man!
Thanks :)
I am not a strong/fast hiker and just wanted some kind of guideline. I would hate to get to a certain point and realize it is too late to make it....
although I think it would be a bit anti-climatic to do a flip flop, but that's just me.
Map Man provides an excellent guideline as you will get stronger/faster as you put in all the miles to Waynesboro/Harpers Ferry. And with a name like Gazelle, you probably are a lot stronger than you think. ;)
Regardless, a flip flop is nothing to get worked up over. Just take it as it comes and you will figure it out as you go. HYOH. :cool:
I think all of us April starts (4th here) have this in the backs of our minds... assuming the worst, what's the latest you could start at Katahdin for a flip flop to HF?
I think all of us April starts (4th here) have this in the backs of our minds... assuming the worst, what's the latest you could start at Katahdin for a flip flop to HF?
I'd keep in mind the time it will take hiking from Katahdin past the Whites. Lakes of the Clouds and Madison Hut close mid September. I was in the area at the time and planned on just camping in the outside foyer of Madison Hut. The caretaker was still there closing up and he sent me down to the Valley Trail campsite. It pissed me off too since I was hurting at the time and got injured on the walk down. End of hike for that year. What pissed me off more was reading someones trail journal a week later, the same a-hole let some stay in the hut a night later.
A sincere thank you to Jack, 1Pint and Tin Man for your kind words. I think the reason I don't post more is because I am still in learning mode about long distance hiking in general and the AT in particular. The only threads where I tend to comment are ones that cover areas I have reason to believe I might have some insight to share -- so I comment on hiking rates because I researched that article, about stoveless and vegan hiking because I've gained a little experience in those areas, about the Superior Hiking Trail because I hiked the length of it last year, and occasionally about a piece of gear or two I've had good luck with. When I've hiked as much as guys like Jack and Lone Wolf and Stumpknocker (just to name three), maybe I'll get more talkative:D .
Back to the question. Since mel-gazelle mentioned her exact starting date since I last posted (April 2 or 3), here are the tipping point dates for three prominent landmarks along the way (and these should go for Hoku as well since he leaves April 4): A hiker leaving that time in April and hiking in similar style to past thru-hikers would pass Harpers Ferry on July 2, DWG on July 24 and Kent on August 7 if that hiker were on pace to get to Katahdin on October 10. So arriving significantly after those dates might lead you to consider rearranging the order in which you hike the rest of the trail. (Those estimates are making all of the same assumptions I made in the last post.)
And no matter how the hike is rearranged, it seems like a good idea to try to have the whole northern section from Glencliff to Katahdin under your belt by early October at the latest, if you can. I think I'd be more intimidated hiking over Mount Washington in late October or later than Katahdin.
Map Man provides an excellent guideline as you will get stronger/faster as you put in all the miles to Waynesboro/Harpers Ferry. And with a name like Gazelle, you probably are a lot stronger than you think. ;)
Regardless, a flip flop is nothing to get worked up over. Just take it as it comes and you will figure it out as you go. HYOH. :cool:
Actually the gazelle part comes from something totally different.
Debt reduction....Dave Ramsey describes a gazelle through out his book and since me and hubby paid off 20,000 in a little over a year I started using it.
My trail name should be melephant or something stupid like that :)