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Disney
04-13-2007, 09:35
MSN just published a piece on the odds of bad things happening. The list includes bear attacks, lightning strikes, snake bites. Interesting reading. I would bet though, that as hikers, this kind of stuff gets more likely.

Bear attacks 1 in 36 million

Struck by lightning 1 in 240,000

Snake Bites 1 in 37,250

http://lifestyle.msn.com/FamilyandParenting/RaisingKids/articlebhg.aspx?cp-documentid=1027729&GT1=9310

superman
04-13-2007, 09:53
Stats are funny things. When you see numbers like that it seems pretty remote...maybe like seeing a ufo. I've never seen a ufo but I'd like to. However Winter and I were within 10 feet of a black bear. Winter leaned forward and the hair on her back went up. I whispered "stay" and she relaxed in place. We just stood still until the bear finished crossing the trail in front of us. I whispered "stay with me" which tells her to stay next to me in the heel position as I eased backward. When we were a little ways back I just turned and walked away slowly. It was at that time when the stats don't reflect the moment.
I have stupidly continued to hike over high ground during lighting strikes and felt the charge of electricity in the air. The stats are off if you put yourself in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Winter has walked right over the top of rattle snakes and copper heads sunning themselves in the trails. They never have reacted to her but the snakes immediately react as I approach.
I guess stats vary according to where you're standing.

saimyoji
04-13-2007, 09:56
I'd like to see the mathematical basis for those odds. :-?

OHBob
04-13-2007, 13:27
Yeah, those stats can be a bit misleading I'm sure. If you're in NYC, the chances of a bear attack are remote unless you climb over the fence at the zoo. But in the wild areas of Yellowstone, or along parts of the AT, I'm sure the stats would change. It would be nice to know if the stats are based on the population at large, meaning the entire United States, or are they broken down to include stats of bear attacks for those who venture into bear areas.

CaseyB
04-13-2007, 14:05
Assuming they are talking about the entire US population (300,000,000), this means that:
-8 & 1/3 of us will suffer a bear attack
-1250 will be struck by lightning
-8053 will get snakebit

I already met my quota for car accidents, so somebody out there owes me a lightning strike.......

Frosty
04-13-2007, 14:13
Yeah, those stats can be a bit misleading I'm sure. If you're in NYC, the chances of a bear attack are remote unless you climb over the fence at the zoo. But in the wild areas of Yellowstone, or along parts of the AT, I'm sure the stats would change. It would be nice to know if the stats are based on the population at large, meaning the entire United States, or are they broken down to include stats of bear attacks for those who venture into bear areas.The GSMNP has bears up the wazoo, lots of back country, and not too many miles of roads. But if you look at the annual injury report, automobile accidents are the greatest cause of injury in the park. Bear encounters are way down the list, after things like falls, burns and bee stings. I can't remember if lightning was mentioned or not.

I don't know about Yellowstone, but I'll bet that there are still fewer bear encounters than other types of injury.

Frosty
04-13-2007, 14:16
MSN just published a piece on the odds of bad things happening. The list includes bear attacks, lightning strikes, snake bites. Interesting reading. I would bet though, that as hikers, this kind of stuff gets more likely.

Bear attacks 1 in 36 million

Struck by lightning 1 in 240,000

Snake Bites 1 in 37,250

http://lifestyle.msn.com/FamilyandParenting/RaisingKids/articlebhg.aspx?cp-documentid=1027729&GT1=9310I never understand accident rates. Are they talking in an average person's lifetime or every year? Or every some-other-time-frame?

Even more confusing to me are death rates. How can there be death rates? Isn't it pretty much one each?

Alligator
04-13-2007, 14:18
Yes, the odds can change if you condition on them, i.e. conditional probability.

Alligator
04-13-2007, 14:22
I never understand accident rates. Are they talking in an average person's lifetime or every year? Or every some-other-time-frame?
I think yearly, because rates are yearly, although lately it seems policies are for six months.


Even more confusing to me are death rates. How can there be death rates? Isn't it pretty much one each?Everybody gets one but here I think it is per capita per year (1 for every 100,000 people per year for instance).

superman
04-13-2007, 15:03
OK, so as I understand this, since I already died once and was brought back does that mean I don't have to die again?:banana I knew it was my lucky day.

leeki pole
04-13-2007, 15:09
Yeah, but if it happens to you, that's even money. Be careful out there!:sun

CaseyB
04-13-2007, 15:09
Even more confusing to me are death rates. How can there be death rates? Isn't it pretty much one each?

Awesome. Somewhere an insurance guy is reading this and thinking about not showing up Monday.

BradMT
04-14-2007, 01:07
In NC during a 1977 AT walk I was nearly hit by lightening, narrowly avoided stepping on a brood of Copperheads, was chased by a BIG wild boar in the Smokies and startled a black bear at less than ten feet.

Anyone want to go hiking with me?

grin...

fiddlehead
04-14-2007, 02:59
i don't know of anyone that's been attacked by a bear (false charged yes, but attacked, no!) , no one that's been bitten by a snake. and one person who was struck by lightning although that was an indirect hit.
(That's after 17 years of hiking which includes 7 thruhikes on the big 3 trails.) I'd say, nothing to worry about on any of those 3 points.

moxie
04-15-2007, 09:46
Maine has no rattlesnakes and strangely, the biggest one I saw on the trail was within 50 miles of New York City. I have pictures. I only know of one case of an AT hiker being killed by lightning and that was in Virginia. Maine has more black bears than any other State but because they are hunted they are shy and seldom ever seen. Whenever I saw a bear while thru hiking I broke out my camera and started walking right at the bear hoping for a good picture. Din't get many because if a bear knows you are not frightened the bear turns and runs. I have a few pictures of the butts of running bears. I will say if you get between a female moose and her calf she will attack as will a bull in heat in October if he thinks you are between him and true love, The creature you have to fear is the rare landlocked Kennebec Manatee. During the ice age a few were seperated from their Florida cousins and managed to survive in the Kennebec River. Since they are landlocked they are smaller, about 350 pounds, than their Florida cousins. Thay are shy and seldom seen but in late September and early October they have a short mating season. The problem is that a thru hiker smells exactly like a female manatee in heat and often male manatees have knocked over thru hikers fording the Kennebec. The Maine Applachian Trail Club in an effort to save the manatees instituted a canoe ferry service several years ago when several thru hikers were knocked over by mating manatees and almost drowned. The reason for the canoe ferry is advertised as safety but they don't tell you from what. Some thru hikers like Lone Wolf use deodorant and are not attractive the the male manatee so have never been knocked over. Figures on the odds of being knocked over by a manatee have greatly fallen since the ferry service and the population of them is now stable. Before the ferry service several manatees were severly beaten by nalgene bottles and hiking poles.;)

mudhead
04-15-2007, 10:58
Save the baby manatees for Moxie.

saimyoji
04-15-2007, 11:23
Save the baby manatees for Moxie.


You asked for it. Gotta love Conan.

http://hornymanatee.com/

STEVEM
04-15-2007, 13:33
The odds of winning the Powerball Grand Prize are 1:146,170,962. I guess thats about the same as being attacked by a bear, bitten by a snake and struck by lightning at the same time.

rickb
04-15-2007, 14:05
Yea, but if you buy just 5 tickets every week for 20 years, the odds of you winning the Jackpot are more like 1 in 30,000.

Likewise, if you spend a lot of time in the woods, the odds of something bad (or good) go way up.

freefall
04-15-2007, 17:33
I was bitten by a rattle snake at age 10 on the Cedar Run- White Oak Canyon trail in SNP. No venom released.
I was bluff charged on the fire road down below Dark Hollow Falls and had lightning stike a tree not 30 feet from me on the Limerlost trail all on the same trip. 28 at the time.
Bitten by a brown recluse spider and countless ticks.The spider bite area never got bigger than a silver dollar and, as far as I know, never had Lyme or RMSP.
Had a tornado pass overhead in Charlotte and was caught between two of them when I lived in Myrtle Beach. Saw a shark close by in the water but never bitten.

Am I lucky or what?:cool:

Dances with Mice
04-15-2007, 18:46
My wife is one in a million.

That means there are 3 million just like her in China.

BradMT
04-16-2007, 00:39
countless ticks.The spider bite area never got bigger than a silver dollar and, as far as I know, never had Lyme or RMSP.

I got bit by a tick in the early summer of 1999 and got Rocky Mountain Tick Fever (1 in 100000 ticks is a carrier).

Got Hep-A in India/Nepal from the water.

Chit happens...

Rhino-lfl
04-16-2007, 10:48
I have been sleeping in my backyard all last week testing my hammock. Yesterday I took it down because it was raining and I didn't feel like getting up to go pee at night in the rain. Last night the tree was struck by lightening, as well as my fence and the neighbors tree.

If gods out to get me, I'd better keep my eyes open.

Nightwalker
04-16-2007, 14:25
In NC during a 1977 AT walk I was nearly hit by lightening, narrowly avoided stepping on a brood of Copperheads, was chased by a BIG wild boar in the Smokies and startled a black bear at less than ten feet.

Anyone want to go hiking with me?

grin...

Sounds extremely fun? How do you feel about late sleepers? :D