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chris
10-31-2003, 10:09
Does anyone know where I might find long term weather predictions? Specifically, what the feds and their associated eggheads think the winter out west is going to be like.

DebW
10-31-2003, 10:41
NOAA's Cllimate Prediction Center makes such forecasts.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2003/s2100.htm
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Temperatures above normal in the west this winter. Drought in the west will likely continue.

Don't put too much stock in this. They are often wrong. There is a guy at my company who also makes seasonal predictions, and he often does better than the CPC.

Cabo
10-31-2003, 17:30
Forecasts much beyond 72 hours are a long shot at best. Meteorologists use several computer generated "models" and look for a consensus among them. Outside of 72 hours they may be divergent from each other.

Two Speed
10-31-2003, 17:45
Take a look at the Old Farmer's Almanac. Probably about as accurate as anything else, and always has entertaining articles. If you're going to spend time on forecasts, might as well get in some good reading, too! :)

chris
10-31-2003, 18:09
Certainly specific weather forecasts past a day or two are not to be relied upon. What I was after, and found from DebW's links, was what general trend was being predicted for the west. Last year the long term forecast for SoCal and the Sierra was pretty close (wet in the south, drier then normal in the Sierra). They seem to be predicting that the drought in Colorado will continue, which might allow me to complete a northbound CDT hike next summer.

DebW
10-31-2003, 18:14
Seasonal forecasts are different beasts than short-term forecasts. They don't involve forward integration of the equations of motion hour by hour. Instead they look at factors like el Nino, sea surface temperature, snowcover in Asia, etc. They may use statistical techniques to pick analog years when el Nino and other factors were similar. But the skill level is still questionable.


Originally posted by Cabo
Forecasts much beyond 72 hours are a long shot at best. Meteorologists use several computer generated "models" and look for a consensus among them. Outside of 72 hours they may be divergent from each other.