View Full Version : How will this year's drought affect next year's hike?
hopefulhiker
10-08-2007, 18:04
It seems like there might be less water available next year because of this year's drought.. Any thoughts on this?
I suppose it depends on how much precipitation we get over the next half year.
shelterbuilder
10-08-2007, 18:12
If we get some descent snowfall this winter, the drought may have no effect at all. Last winter, all of my neighbors were SO HAPPY that they didn't have any snow to shovel, but they don't realize that a lack of snow now means a lower watertable to start the summer season, which makes dry springs and streams somewhat more likely.
PRAY FOR SNOW!!!:D
Lone Wolf
10-08-2007, 18:16
it'll rain like a mofo soon enuf.
hopefulhiker
10-08-2007, 20:31
There is no rain in the forecast down here in Charlotte...
Not to be a Henny Penny but if it doesn't rain up there in the mountains won't the water tables be affected? I know there have been droughts on the trail before and people had to pump water our of cracks in rocks and suck water out of mud puddles.. It seems like a good idea to consider a pump water filter for next year.
I mean I heard that they are not even stocking some of the trout streams because there's just not enough water... (Somebody please verify this )
If there is a real bad drought going into the first of next year maybe Whiteblazers need to get a trail magic for water effort going so people will be able to thru hike next year without suffering too bad....
Skidsteer
10-08-2007, 20:37
It rained last week in Charlotte.
SGT Rock
10-08-2007, 20:50
Per the Famer's Almanac for the Appalachian Area:
Nov - 4.5" precip 1" above normal
Dec - 3" precip, average amount
Jan - 4" precip, 1" above average
Feb - 1.5" precip, 1" below average
Mar - 2" precip, 1" below average
Apr - 4.5" precip, 1" above average
May - 5" precip, 1" above average
June - 5" precip, 1" above average
July - 4.5" precip, 1" above average
August - 4.5" precip, 1" above average
That covers the 2008 forcast for Noth GA to
Pennsylvania.
For the Northeast:
Nov 4" precip, .5" above average
Dec 3" precip, average
Jan 4" precip, 1" above average
Feb 2" precip, .5" below average
Mar 2.5" precip, .5" below average
Apr 3" precip, .5" below average
May 4.5" precip, 1" above average
Jun 4.5" precip, 1" above average
Jul 5" precip, 1" above average
Aug 5" precip, 2" above average
Sep 2.5" precip, 1" below average
Oct 3" precip, 1" above average
That covers the nothern half.
Two Speed
10-08-2007, 20:58
Let's hope the Almanac has got it right. Kinda dry in Georgia.
SGT Rock
10-08-2007, 21:05
I hope they are right, if so we get some water before I start above normal, then it dries up for the first two months for my start in the winter - then finally it gets wet again for the rest of my hike to keep me in water.
Appalachian Tater
10-08-2007, 21:08
Looks like they took a walk on the wild side for next August, predicting more than 1" above or below the average!
hopefulhiker
10-08-2007, 21:58
Here is an interesting paper on the drought in ME in 2001-2002
http://www.umaine.edu/WaterResearch/research/pdfs/Schmitt%20thesis.pdf
If the almanac is right then next year will be a good year. Seems to be a good balance of 1" above and 1" below average so it should balance out to a near average year.
Tennessee Viking
10-08-2007, 23:45
The folklore prediction say that hot, dry summers bring very heavy cold winters.
The water table normally recharges (refills) in the winter. In a normal growing season, the water table will be reduced by plants, especially trees, drawing water.
As long as there is a normal amount of precipitation this winter, springs and other water sources should be fine in the spring.
Two Speed
10-09-2007, 04:56
. . . As long as there is a normal amount of precipitation this winter, springs and other water sources should be fine in the spring.Which is the problem. Georgia is in it's second significant drought since 2000.
Pennsylvania Rose
10-09-2007, 11:17
Per the Famer's Almanac for the Appalachian Area:
Nov - 4.5" precip 1" above normal
Dec - 3" precip, average amount
Jan - 4" precip, 1" above average
Feb - 1.5" precip, 1" below average
Mar - 2" precip, 1" below average
Apr - 4.5" precip, 1" above average
May - 5" precip, 1" above average
June - 5" precip, 1" above average
July - 4.5" precip, 1" above average
August - 4.5" precip, 1" above average
That covers the 2008 forcast for Noth GA to
Pennsylvania.
7" above - 2" below = 5" above average total
This still doesn't make up for the 6-7" below average that some places are experiencing.
Some hydrologists are saying that droughts tend to run in 2 year cycles, and we're still in the first year. Next year may be worse, since even if we do get a significant amount of rain it won't catch us up to the amount we're behind.
it'll rain like a mofo soon enuf.
It's sure to rain ifn ya wait long enuf, Wolf. In The Green Diamond, there's water enuf to hike now and there will be water enuf next year too.
My grass is still green. Why do you think it's called The Green Diamond?
hopefulhiker
10-09-2007, 16:45
Here is an article about the drought from Charlotte. It has a picture of lake near where I live.....
http://www.charlotte.com/observer/story/310165.html
Per the Famer's Almanac for the Appalachian Area:
Nov - 4.5" precip 1" above normal
Dec - 3" precip, average amount
Jan - 4" precip, 1" above average
Feb - 1.5" precip, 1" below average
Mar - 2" precip, 1" below average
Apr - 4.5" precip, 1" above average
May - 5" precip, 1" above average
June - 5" precip, 1" above average
July - 4.5" precip, 1" above average
August - 4.5" precip, 1" above average
That covers the 2008 forcast for Noth GA to
Pennsylvania.
For the Northeast:
Nov 4" precip, .5" above average
Dec 3" precip, average
Jan 4" precip, 1" above average
Feb 2" precip, .5" below average
Mar 2.5" precip, .5" below average
Apr 3" precip, .5" below average
May 4.5" precip, 1" above average
Jun 4.5" precip, 1" above average
Jul 5" precip, 1" above average
Aug 5" precip, 2" above average
Sep 2.5" precip, 1" below average
Oct 3" precip, 1" above average
That covers the nothern half.
Just curious! What did the almanac show for this year? I know alot of people swear by it.
SGT Rock
10-09-2007, 18:11
I don't have this years but they said:
Our forcast for the winter of 2006-2007 resulted in our lowest verification scores ever with a 61% accuracy rate on the month regional percipitation and a 49% accuracy rate on monthly regional temperature.
I don't have this years but they said:
Not very comforting. I'm gonna go invent a way to carry lightweight water. Just carry an aluminum container filled with hydrogen and some kind of lightweight fusion device. When you want water you just open a valve and the oxygen in the air fuses with the hydrogen and you get water. As long as it can be kept under 10 lbs. I think it has promise.
The drought continues in Maine, when I was in the Bigelows this past weekend, all the water sources listed on the map were dry, or puddles to small to fill your water bottle up with. Also, in the 100 mile wilderness this summer, specifically towards the end of August and the start of September, river levels were way below normal levels, I only had to take off my shoes for one ford, while suppossingly during normal seasons there are many rivers you need to ford that can be just below knee deep.
However, atleast for Portland, rain is due sometime this week, and it is needed badly.
Kirby
2009ThruHiker
10-09-2007, 22:23
I read on a weather website (accuweather maybe?) that this hot dry summer is predicted to give way to a warmer than average winter with below normal precip. Hope this is wrong!
Mother Nature
10-09-2007, 22:34
The water table is at historic lows in north GA at the moment. We need several tropical storms to camp overhead to be effective.
We have plans to go to Black Rock State Park camping next week. Campers with reservations have been alerted that water sources to the park have dried up and all the showers/bathrooms and water spigots in the park have been shut off. Campers must bring all their own water and porto-potties are being brought in.
Several of my neighbors in the vicinity of the AT have reported their home wells have gone dry.
Water on the AT will be a serious problem next spring if the rains don't move in soon.
Dances with Mice
10-09-2007, 22:44
Other considerations: Low water during this growing season lead to a poor crop of acorns which means there will be a lot of hungry bears. By next spring they're going to be REALLY hungry. Be aware all you puny little two legged critters, each packing thousands of calories into the woods.
Other considerations: Low water during this growing season lead to a poor crop of acorns which means there will be a lot of hungry bears. By next spring they're going to be REALLY hungry. Be aware all you puny little two legged critters, each packing thousands of calories into the woods.
Actually, it doesn't work that way. In a drought year, trees drop more acorns -- it's as if they're more concerned about the next generation. Seriously. There were lots and lots of acorns among the fallen leaves, more so the further south I walked.
There's some kind of tree that drops very roundish acorns, and these sometimes were so thick that it was like walking on ball bearings.
Actually, it doesn't work that way. In a drought year, trees drop more acorns -- it's as if they're more concerned about the next generation. Seriously. There were lots and lots of acorns among the fallen leaves, more so the further south I walked.
There's some kind of tree that drops very roundish acorns, and these sometimes were so thick that it was like walking on ball bearings.
That makes sense, I've never seen as many acorns, chestnut oak, etc. on the ground as i have this year. I hope it snows a bunch this winter but the predictions (outside of the farmer's almanac) call for a dry winter in the Southeast due to lower than average water temps in the Southern Pacific (la Nina), whatever that's worth.
Actually, it doesn't work that way. In a drought year, trees drop more acorns -- it's as if they're more concerned about the next generation. Seriously. There were lots and lots of acorns among the fallen leaves, more so the further south I walked.
There's some kind of tree that drops very roundish acorns, and these sometimes were so thick that it was like walking on ball bearings.
But by the winter all of them will be gone. On my uncles farm where I hike all of the wildlife is screwed up. The late freeze this april killed a lot of the nuts. Then those that managed to regrow are being damaged by the drought. It may look like a lot of nuts on the ground now, but that's all there is. They have to last every squirrel, chipmunk, deer, bear, mouse, and anything else that may come across them.
I will add in that Terrapin may be right, I'm not saying you aren't. I am just saying from my experience from a lot of hunting that a late freeze will cause a lot of problems. The last time we had a late freeze it took 2 years before I saw a squirrel on my uncles farm. That is where most of what I said comes from, the freeze. I don't really have much experience on what trees do during droughts though. Hopefully you are right, and the drought is making them produce and drop more nuts. That would counterat the typical shortage that would happen with a late freeze that kills them all off. Kind of a balance.
Well, I'm not saying that drought is good for the trees or the wildlife, only observing that in drought years, oaks tend to drop more acorns. My observations are based on an oak or two in our yard, and my hike this summer. I've been unable to verify this from a web search. Owning a house in New England with a heavily wooded yard, I'm keenly aware of what the trees drop, since I'm the one who cleans it all up and schleps it away.
Well, I'm not saying that drought is good for the trees or the wildlife, only observing that in drought years, oaks tend to drop more acorns. My observations are based on an oak or two in our yard, and my hike this summer. I've been unable to verify this from a web search. Owning a house in New England with a heavily wooded yard, I'm keenly aware of what the trees drop, since I'm the one who cleans it all up and schleps it away.
Then overall it seems promising. In my expierience late freezes kill off all of the nuts and decreases the food source. In your experience droughts cause trees to drop more nuts. I trust experience since it is based on observed facts. So, this means the wildlife should have a good chance this winter. I hope they do because I hate seeing the bark stripped from too many trees where the deer are starving.
shelterbuilder
10-10-2007, 06:28
Well, I'm not saying that drought is good for the trees or the wildlife, only observing that in drought years, oaks tend to drop more acorns. My observations are based on an oak or two in our yard, and my hike this summer. I've been unable to verify this from a web search. Owning a house in New England with a heavily wooded yard, I'm keenly aware of what the trees drop, since I'm the one who cleans it all up and schleps it away.
I know that here in Pa., we've had a bumper crop of acorns - for about three weeks, it was downright dangerous to be in the woods - those big ones hurt when they hit you in the head.:(
I remember reading somewhere that the different types of oak trees have different cycles, but that every few years, certain species will seem to overproduce acorns, then drop back to normal production levels. In the years when the peaks of the species coincide, the animals have plenty to eat, but the years when production is flat, everything goes hungry. I don't think that this has anything to do with drought, though.
I thought acorns were a 2-year kind of thing.
shelterbuilder
10-10-2007, 06:53
I thought acorns were a 2-year kind of thing.
I never really paid that much attention to it in the field - but I'm certain that the cycles are longer than two years. Perhaps someone with more of a background in botany can weigh in on this.
hopefulhiker
10-10-2007, 09:38
I expect there to be more blow downs on the trail next year because of the drought. I think that when the ground gets really dry that the roots pull up easier in a storm. Also I think that trees and their root systems are weakened during a drought.
Pennsylvania Rose
10-10-2007, 10:21
Here's a link to a precip. map that was in today's paper:
http://www.kentucky.com/454/story/198542.html
Dances with Mice
10-10-2007, 10:21
I know that during drought years pecan nuts are smaller and the meats don't fill out the shell. I don't really know about acorns since I don't eat that many.
But there's this from the University of Tennessee (http://forestry.tennessee.edu/oakmastproduction.htm)... which shows some of my assumption was right, some was wrong. Evidently the late freeze this year had a large impact on the acorn production - and we had a very late freeze here in Georgia. Ask the Blueberry Patch hostel about that.
Some oaks product nuts on a one year cycle, some on two. I did not know that. Clever, those trees.
But the take-away portion of the article says:
Considering the flowering of most oaks (red and white) was inhibited by the freeze, the uncertainly of red oak acorns pollinated in 2006, the current drought conditions, and that an increasing proportion of acorns are consumed by insects when acorn production is limited, it is safe to assume that mast (acorn) production will be limited in 2007 and somewhat limited in 2008. Wildlife populations will probably decrease because of the scarcity of hard mast. Many animals will be searching for food outside their usual habitats in urban areas and in urban-rural interface areas.
Be careful about that whole interfacing thing, ok?
Well, I guess the good news is that I am seeing plenty of acorns falling.:)
The bad news is this is a very serious drought and I believe it will be more than a year before we see water flowing at normal levels. Today here in Suches, a friend of mine told me that his spring went dry this week. The spring has never gone dry in the hundred years the property has been in his family. Just about everyone in the area who depend on springs are now dry. And there is nothing to make us believe this will be ending soon.:( There is no rain in the forcast. But at least it did cool down a bit.
Frolicking Dinosaurs
10-13-2007, 07:34
I've been doing a bit of traveling lately due to the death of my mother. All of the creeks and rivers I've seen in north Georgia and middle & east Tennessee are well below their normal stages for this time of year. Unless we have an extremely wet winter in the south, I predict next year's thru and section hikers will have great difficulty finding water in the higher elevations on the southern third of the trail. It might not be a bad idea for us to begin thinking about mounting efforts to provide water to next year's AT hikers. We will know before the 2008 hikers start if the winter has been wet enough to replenish the mountain springs and streams.
A second suggestion - it might be wise for us to begin discussing the desert methods of water gathering. While these have not been necessary on the AT before, they may well become imperative if the drought turns out to be a permanent shift in the weather pattern secondary to the overall warming of the earth surface as some meteorologists fear.
I've been doing a bit of traveling lately due to the death of my mother. All of the creeks and rivers I've seen in north Georgia and middle & east Tennessee are well below their normal stages for this time of year. Unless we have an extremely wet winter in the south, I predict next year's thru and section hikers will have great difficulty finding water in the higher elevations on the southern third of the trail. It might not be a bad idea for us to begin thinking about mounting efforts to provide water to next year's AT hikers. We will know before the 2008 hikers start if the winter has been wet enough to replenish the mountain springs and streams.
A second suggestion - it might be wise for us to begin discussing the desert methods of water gathering. While these have not been necessary on the AT before, they may well become imperative if the drought turns out to be a permanent shift in the weather pattern secondary to the overall warming of the earth surface as some meteorologists fear.
Carry a few clear plastic bags and twist ties. Those would give you a few different ways to collect water.