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dessertrat
10-25-2007, 17:42
Maybe I misread the statistics over at the ATC's website, but looking at their charts, it looks like there are fewer thru-hikers yearly since 2001, though with a higher completion percentage. Is this an accurate perception?

I know that decade by decade, the number of hikers has gone up every decade, it just looks like it is slumping from 2001 onward. Or am I reading the statistics wrong?

If I am right, how to explain? And if I'm looking at the numbers wrong, please correct me.

dessertrat
10-25-2007, 17:44
This is the page I'm referring to.

http://www.appalachiantrail.org/site/c.jkLXJ8MQKtH/b.851143/k.C36D/2000Milers_Facts_and_Statistics.htm

Pedaling Fool
10-25-2007, 17:44
The numbers will go back up after the movie.

dessertrat
10-25-2007, 17:47
I see there's a news article about it, too. About ten percent decline each year over the last few. http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2007/May/27/fewer-hikers-sticking-it-out-to-at146s-end/

But how to explain it, really?

rafe
10-25-2007, 17:50
I see there's a news article about it, too. About ten percent decline each year over the last few. http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2007/May/27/fewer-hikers-sticking-it-out-to-at146s-end/

But how to explain it, really?

They're cyber-hiking instead. ;)

Creek Dancer
10-25-2007, 17:51
What's also interesting is that the completion rate has gone up every year since 2001.

Deadeye
10-25-2007, 17:55
I bet the numbers will start to climb again soon as the baby boomers retire (2022 for me!)

Lyle
10-25-2007, 18:12
I'd assume (possibly with the expected consequences) that the reason the completion rate is increasing is because of the internet. Through Trailplace, Whiteblaze, AT_list, Trailjournals, and other sites a lot of hikers have a much better idea what they are getting into, so either don't start or are better prepared to finish.

I was also going to say because of the lighter packs today, but thought better of it. It was easy enough with 40 lbs. Just changing to an average of 30 lbs wouldn't make much difference. As common knowlege tells us, equipment won't make or break a hike, at least if it's within reason.

Not sure about why fewer are attempting other than the general tend towards couch potatoism. I agree it will probably increase again when more of the baby boomers retire, I know I can't wait!

Jack Tarlin
10-25-2007, 18:19
Hikers are better informed and better prepared and are indeed carrying lighter loads.

But in addition to this, there are a lot more facilities to make things easier for hikers, especially in the critical first few weeks of the trip. In the old days, it wasn't unusual for hikers to frequently go 9 to 12 days between towns or major re-supply points; they spent more time in the woods, less time in towns, and less time under real roofs. Today's hikers can get well into Virginia without being out more than four or five straight days......there are a lot more hostels, cheap motel stops, etc. It makes it a lot easier for today's hikers, both phyically and mentally; they spend more time inside; they get better rest; they eat lots better. And hikers that last six or seven weeks, i.e. those that stick it out til Virginia, have a greatly improved chance of completing their hikes. In short, one of the main reasons we're seeing more completed hikes is that fewer people drop out early, for any number of reasons. When fewer folks drop out early, it means there will be more at the end of the year who make it all the way.

Mags
10-25-2007, 18:26
Not sure about why fewer are attempting other than the general tend towards couch potatoism. I agree it will probably increase again when more of the baby boomers retire, I know I can't wait!



Backpacking and camping has also declined as a whole.

Check 'er out:
http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php?t=14841&highlight=skurka+pct-l

SGT Rock
10-25-2007, 18:44
I think it is like hitting home runs. If you swing a lot, you may hit more, but you will greatly increase your strike outs.

So if you transfer that to thru-hiking. If more people take a shot at it, you will get more completions, but you will probably get a great deal more strike outs.

cowboy nichols
10-25-2007, 18:55
Just a thought- There is more information about many other trails and a lot of hikers , myself included are exploring other trails which are not as well reported as the A T.


Hikeing 'Til -----

Magic Man
10-25-2007, 19:07
I was told recently that Bill Bryson's book caused the extreme spike (1999 or 2000?)
and these numbers have just slowly returned to a more norm.

rumbler
10-25-2007, 19:09
Prior to hiking in 2003 I had never been out longer than 6 days. If it were not for the invaluable information provided by Whiteblaze and the guidebooks my hike would have been VASTLY more difficult.

My gear was poked over by Whiteblaze, my schedule was determined by guidebooks and Jack's ever-helpful resupply guide, and my expectations were suitably prepared for the difficulties of a long hike that no weeklong escape would prepare you for.

The informational resources coupled with more and more creature comforts being more and more accessible to the trail have no doubt been of tremendous benefit to hikers efforts of completing a thruhike.

Not really sure why the numbers attempting have declined though.

SGT Rock
10-25-2007, 19:12
Prior to hiking in 2003 I had never been out longer than 6 days. If it were not for the invaluable information provided by Whiteblaze and the guidebooks my hike would have been VASTLY more difficult.

My gear was poked over by Whiteblaze, my schedule was determined by guidebooks and Jack's ever-helpful resupply guide, and my expectations were suitably prepared for the difficulties of a long hike that no weeklong escape would prepare you for.

The informational resources coupled with more and more creature comforts being more and more accessible to the trail have no doubt been of tremendous benefit to hikers efforts of completing a thruhike.

Not really sure why the numbers attempting have declined though.
Maybe WhiteBlaze also scares off people. :welcome

CoyoteWhips
10-25-2007, 19:22
Are stores like REI experiencing a decline in sales of backpacks?

SGT Rock
10-25-2007, 19:23
They keep opening new ones.

Creek Dancer
10-25-2007, 19:26
Not sure I understand your point. If I understand the ATC stats correctly, fewer people are taking a shot at thru-hiking, yet the rate of completion has increased.



I think it is like hitting home runs. If you swing a lot, you may hit more, but you will greatly increase your strike outs.

So if you transfer that to thru-hiking. If more people take a shot at it, you will get more completions, but you will probably get a great deal more strike outs.

rafe
10-25-2007, 19:31
They keep opening new [REI stores].

Maybe there's an SUV analogy here, Rock. ;)

Some folks go to REI to buy bright-colored clothing with big logos so that they can pretend to be hardy, sch!t-kicking outdoorsy types. When, in fact, they're far more likely to be wearing those clothes to the mall and back.

It's call conspicuous consumption.

SGT Rock
10-25-2007, 19:32
Not sure I understand your point. If I understand the ATC stats correctly, fewer people are taking a shot at thru-hiking, yet the rate of completion has increased.

The raw number of people completing the trail has decreased. In 2000 it was 633, last year it was only 488. It is probably going to be even less next year. So the numbers of home runs has gone down.

The number of people starting has also gone down, but by a bigger number. 2,375 starters in 2001, 1150 last year, so the number of attempts at bat has also gone down.

In baseball, most of the home run kings also have some really high strike out rates. Because when you are swinging hard to make the homer, you also swing a lot.

So, if less people are attempting (swining the bat) it works out like baseball that even though there are less home runs total, there is a higher completion percentage.

SGT Rock
10-25-2007, 19:34
Maybe there's an SUV analogy here, Rock. ;)

Some folks go to REI to buy bright-colored clothing with big logos so that they can pretend to be hardy, sch!t-kicking outdoorsy types. When, in fact, they're far more likely to be wearing those clothes to the mall and back.

It's call conspicuous consumption.
I completly agree, I know people that have bought JetBoils because they look cool but have yet to go hiking. But they plan to someday. It is the "cool" factor that draws them in.

But most Gear stores that make it sell a lot of "hiker fashion" clothing to people that most likely rarely ever hike in it. That is where they make their money.

Lone Wolf
10-25-2007, 19:43
Maybe I misread the statistics over at the ATC's website, but looking at their charts, it looks like there are fewer thru-hikers yearly since 2001, though with a higher completion percentage. Is this an accurate perception?

I know that decade by decade, the number of hikers has gone up every decade, it just looks like it is slumping from 2001 onward. Or am I reading the statistics wrong?

If I am right, how to explain? And if I'm looking at the numbers wrong, please correct me.

yes. fewer numbers cuz they carry less, suffer more and quit early

Huffy1
10-25-2007, 19:57
It could also just be a natural cycle in human intrest.:-?

PJ 2005
10-25-2007, 23:14
I'm convinced that Bill Bryson caused an influx of hikers that had no idea what they were doing or why they were doing it. I love the exposure, but normally only experienced backpackers attempt a thru. At least that's my opinion.

rafe
10-25-2007, 23:25
...but normally only experienced backpackers attempt a thru. At least that's my opinion.

Ha. I saw lots of utterly inexperienced hikers starting from Springer. A few of them made it to K. And I, being quite experienced, did not.

Sly
10-25-2007, 23:30
Next boom will be the next millenium or 3001!

A-Train
10-26-2007, 00:05
Any of the following reasons can explain why the numbers were down this yr:

-people elected to wait on line and wait for the release of the new iPhone.
-people were psychic and bought up Rockies season tickets to get their playoff preference
-afraid global warming would make the mid-atlantic in summer too unbearable
-heard the CDT has been completed. (Its not. even close)
-someone started a rumor that Miss Janets was closed
-trail is simply getting too easy with the plethora of hostels
-didn't wanna miss the premier of Fantastic Four and you're a huge Jessica Alba fan.
-heard it was Springsteen's last summer tour.
-wanted to stick around and read the newspaper more than once aweek to find out the GOP frontrunner.
-given up on running into Bryson on the trail
-couldn't decide between the vapor trail and ULA so just decided to scrap your thru-hike plans
-realized the Long Trail was 1/10th the length and you get to end in Canada!
-too much good banter on Whiteblaze

Miss Janet
10-26-2007, 01:14
But I have been saying for years... Who is counting???? The numbers may be a little lower this year than last... but who says so?? Service providers may give some indications but then they sure don't see everyone.

If only 1150 started last year... and 150 of those dropped out by Fontana...
then I had 400 in Erwin...
Uncle Johnny had 500...
the Holiday Inn reported over 200
and the Super 8 had about 200 as well..

My math isn't that great but it doesn't add up... and again this is repeated in every trail town coming north from Ga. And where do we get the START number?? The park doesn't keep a good count and the guys at Mnt Crossings can't keep a count... Did you guys know that 82% of all statistics are made up 67% of the time, err, or something like that!

Miss Janet
10-26-2007, 01:30
,,,448 nobo plus 38 FF plus 16 forders equals 502 thru-hikers. Congratulations to all the hikers who started, sectioned, overcame injuries and thru-hiked this year!"

This from the Ferryman today... so I guess almost half of the ones who started this year made it? Way to go!!!

Mags
10-26-2007, 10:39
They keep opening new ones.

(making reference to REI).

Yeah..but the REIs are more "lifestyle" stores. Selling mainly apparel. (Big mark up..great profit)

Most of the gear they sell is definitely aimed more towards done-in-a-day type activities. Less and less of their gear is for overnight activities.

My room-mate works part time at REI. His anecdotal evidence seems to support this as well.

The newly rebuilt REI in Boulder, as an FYI seems to have less space devoted to backpacking/camping than in the past.

Just noticed, as usual, Sgt. Rock made the same point..just shorter and better! :D Gotta read the other replies before I post in the morning!


Anyway, just an observation.

dessertrat
10-26-2007, 12:33
They keep opening new ones.

People seem to experiment with new gear a lot more these days, though. It used to be that you just bought a pack and used it, it seems to me. Now some folks have the UL, the Lightweight, the heavy, etc.

And the clothing, the stoves, etc. People like to upgrade their equipment (nothing inherently wrong with that), and they do. There is certainly more new gear out there than you can shake a stick at.

rafe
10-26-2007, 12:35
(making reference to REI).

Yeah..but the REIs are more "lifestyle" stores. Selling mainly apparel. (Big mark up..great profit)

That's my take also, and it applies to EMS as well. The really decent gear that I'm buying these days has to be bought off the 'net -- unless it's simple generic stuff like stuff bags or pack covers.

But hey, I'm sure REI and EMS will both be featuring the MSR Reactor soon.

dessertrat
10-26-2007, 12:35
I'm convinced that Bill Bryson caused an influx of hikers that had no idea what they were doing or why they were doing it. I love the exposure, but normally only experienced backpackers attempt a thru. At least that's my opinion.

Then how come Bryson encountered so many. . . he hadn't written his book yet! Is this one of those time-warp things?:D

Sly
10-26-2007, 13:08
If only 1150 started last year... and 150 of those dropped out by Fontana...
then I had 400 in Erwin...
Uncle Johnny had 500...
the Holiday Inn reported over 200
and the Super 8 had about 200 as well..

My math isn't that great but it doesn't add up..

Are those numbers individual hikers or hikers that stayed X amount of days? And whose to say, the hikers didn't stay at 1 or 2 places in each town. As an example, in Hot Springs I stayed at Elmer's and the Alpine. Cheryl got into town a day earlier than me and stayed in the campground, Elmer's and the motel!

Also, these numbers may not include long distance section hikers that stayed in town

walkin' wally
10-26-2007, 16:20
QUOTE My math isn't that great but it doesn't add up... and again this is repeated in every trail town coming north from Ga. And where do we get the START number?? The park doesn't keep a good count and the guys at Mnt Crossings can't keep a count... Did you guys know that 82% of all statistics are made up 67% of the time, err, or something like that![/QUOTE]

I love that one :banana


Good one Miss Janet
I

Someone said; "there are lies, damn lies, and statistics"

See you in 2010 I hope.

refreeman
10-27-2007, 09:43
The numbers will go back up after the movie.

What movie is that?

Brad
10-27-2007, 10:45
What movie is that?

The oft-spoken of but not yet filmed "A Walk In The Woods" movie.

Pedaling Fool
10-27-2007, 11:05
The oft-spoken of but not yet filmed "A Walk In The Woods" movie.
I'm not sure of the status since Paul Newman dropped out.

Magic Man
10-27-2007, 11:39
Getting an accurate count sounds like the perfect college research project!

Jack Tarlin
10-27-2007, 12:35
There's no way to get an accurate count.

First off, there's no official "Sign In" place. Some of the hikers who start in Amicalola Falls don't sign in anywhere, and more and more hikers start on USFS Rd 42 anyway, and never even see Amicalola Falls.

Secondly, not everyone signs in an Neels Gap, either, plus all sorts of folks have dropped out before even getting there.

Most folks sign in at Harpers Ferry, but then again, these figures aren't necessarily accurate or honest. I've seen people signed in at Harpers who'd skipped most of Virginia.

The most accurate figures are the ones kept by Steve Longley and the folks at Baxter State Park. Steve's numbers are prtetty good, because not too many people get past him or his staff. The Baxter figures are good because just about everyone (with the rare exception of the handful of folks who don't sign in so they can save a few dollars) who gets to Baxter officially registers with Park officials.

The completion reports to ATC are accurate only when one considers that the vast majority of folks reporting a "complete" hike of the A.T. have not, in fact, accomplished this.

For all these reasons, the "completion" numbers are estimates, and while it is certainly true that the percentage of folks who finish (or report finishing) is higher than it used to be, this doesn't necessarily mean that the trip has become as easy as some people think. For one thing, twenty years ago, most of the folks who reported a complete thru had actually achieved one. :-?

A-Train
10-27-2007, 12:46
The only way to truly know would be to stand on Springer (or better somewhere on the trail between US42 and Hawk Mt) and literally count every person.

Even this would prove to have tremendous flaws. First, the AT starting window is gigantic-people are literally starting hikes from January to June-thats a long time to stand somewhere, making sure you don't miss anyone.

This would only tell you who started/attempted, not the actual number of thru-hikers.

You'd also have a hard time trying to determine who was actually thru-hiking, as many other folks like to go out for an annual stroll each march/april. Trying to stop and talk with 2000-3000 people would prove chalenging, especially on weekends in march, when some 50 people are starting per day.
Ever tried to stop and talk with a thru who was on a mission? It's not easy.

There really is no clear method, but bless the person who does figure it out someday:-?

rafe
10-27-2007, 12:55
Agreed, it's an impossible counting task. But why is it so important?

The one thing that's beyond dispute (and hasn't changed) is that many start, and far fewer finish.

The dream gets into your system like a drug or a disease. But once you start, reality sets in.

A-Train
10-27-2007, 13:48
Agreed, it's an impossible counting task. But why is it so important?

The one thing that's beyond dispute (and hasn't changed) is that many start, and far fewer finish.

The dream gets into your system like a drug or a disease. But once you start, reality sets in.

What, days upon days of rain, blisters, lost toenails, old men snoring next to you and mice running over your face aren;t part of your dream?:)

dessertrat
10-27-2007, 14:42
What, days upon days of rain, blisters, lost toenails, old men snoring next to you and mice running over your face aren;t part of your dream?:)

I've heard that the last two aren't nearly as much of a problem if you stay away from shelters, but that might just be a few people talkin'.

Programbo
10-28-2007, 20:45
Not sure I understand your point. If I understand the ATC stats correctly, fewer people are taking a shot at thru-hiking, yet the rate of completion has increased.

Maybe "nay-saying" isn`t such a bad thing after all as it seems to be cutting down on those who really shouldn`t be trying a thru in the first place..Thus the increase in completion rate :-?

rafe
10-28-2007, 21:01
Maybe "nay-saying" isn`t such a bad thing after all as it seems to be cutting down on those who really shouldn`t be trying a thru in the first place..Thus the increase in completion rate :-?

No tragedy either way. Just bruised egos & broken dreams.

minnesotasmith
10-29-2007, 07:59
The completion reports to ATC are accurate only when one considers that the vast majority of folks reporting a "complete" hike of the A.T. have not, in fact, accomplished this.

For all these reasons, the "completion" numbers are estimates, and while it is certainly true that the percentage of folks who finish (or report finishing) is higher than it used to be, this doesn't necessarily mean that the trip has become as easy as some people think. For one thing, twenty years ago, most of the folks who reported a complete thru had actually achieved one. :-?

The vast majority of reportedly-successful thruhikers are lying SOSs? Lying about average daily mileage, or sexual success, sure, but I'm having a little trouble accepting this. Please elaborate on your reasoning here.

jersey joe
10-29-2007, 08:54
I'm convinced that Bill Bryson caused an influx of hikers that had no idea what they were doing or why they were doing it. I love the exposure, but normally only experienced backpackers attempt a thru. At least that's my opinion.

I agree that the spike in hikers is because of Bill Bryson's book. It was a best seller and made the trail known to loads of people who otherwise didn't even know it existed. What the stats page from the ATC does not show is the years before 2001. The number of hikers actually spiked up in 2001 and are now slowly returning to normal.

Sly
10-29-2007, 09:05
I agree that the spike in hikers is because of Bill Bryson's book. It was a best seller and made the trail known to loads of people who otherwise didn't even know it existed. What the stats page from the ATC does not show is the years before 2001. The number of hikers actually spiked up in 2001 and are now slowly returning to normal.

Yeah they spiked from the early 90's, before Bryson's book, up to 2001 aka the millenium. I think y'all are giving Bryson too much credit.

rafe
10-29-2007, 09:09
I think y'all are giving Bryson too much credit.

Seriously, Bryson's picture of the AT isn't entirely flattering. Does anyone think that "AWITW" would induce "Springer fever" in the average reader?

weary
10-29-2007, 10:37
It could also just be a natural cycle in human intrest.:-?
It probably is because the population of this country is getting older -- especially in the East. And not many old coots take to the trails, either then or now.

Also the invention of video games probably didn't help. Adventure is now available without the necessity of getting sweaty.

Weary

sylvan
10-29-2007, 10:53
(making reference to REI).

Yeah..but the REIs are more "lifestyle" stores. Selling mainly apparel. (Big mark up..great profit)

Wow, come on man, you know as well as I do that the REIs of the world have to strike a balance between costs and competitivity to stay in business. They're selling items at or below MSRP. Markup in retail is traditionally double what you paid for it, which holds true with my experience in working for an Outfitter about 10 years ago. There's a lot of overhead to having a brick & mortal storefront, even moreso for the REIs of the world who only pu in 10,000sqft stores in prominent and popular locations.

In my experience, outfitters have approximately the same mark up for apparel that they do for gear and other items. It's almost always ~50%.

Back in the day, I used to love selling a kayak or a pair of skies.

weary
10-29-2007, 10:53
Backpacking and camping has also declined as a whole.

Check 'er out:
http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php?t=14841&highlight=skurka+pct-l
Use of Maine State Parks and state camping areas are up 10 percent this year. Since Maine is the wildest of the trail states, perhaps the problem is the increasing civilizing of the trail. With many hikers these days stopping in towns every 2 or 3 days, it no longer is a wild experience -- except for a few places in Maine.

The Maine Appalachian TRail Land Trust, at least, is fighting to reverse the trend towards more development near the trail in Maine.

Weary www.matlt.org

rafe
10-29-2007, 10:57
And not many old coots take to the trails, either then or now.

I dunno about that, Weary. Lotta "old coots" at the ALDHA gathering a few weeks ago. I was kinda surprised in fact.

sylvan
10-29-2007, 10:58
On topic,

I'm glad to see that the Appalachian Trail is seeing a few fewer thru-hikers these days. I don't think I ever really felt crowded on the trail in 2000, but the partying culture in towns could get a little out of hand.

Having fewer hikers on the trail makes me more apt to want to do another thru.

There is really no doubt in my mind that "A Walk in the Woods" helped spike interest in the trail that wasn't there before. I talked to many hikers in 2000 who said that that book had been a strong source of inspiriation for them.

It wasn't the source of the spark for me, but it sure made me want to hike the AT more.

Mags
10-29-2007, 11:57
Wow, come on man, you know as well as I do that the REIs of the world have to strike a balance between costs and competitivity to stay in business. They're selling items at or below MSRP.


It is a still a lifestyle store and less of an outdoor store. Whether things are marked up or not is just acknowleding a fact and not a judgement. ALL stores mark things up. Apparel happens to be something that is marked up, sells like hotcakes and provides much $$$ for not only REI, but gear companies as well.

Mags
10-29-2007, 12:00
Use of Maine State Parks and state camping areas are up 10 percent this year.


That bucks the national trend it seems:

http://www.funoutdoors.com/node/view/1796

"All of the other regions experienced a decline in recreation visits in 2006. The Midwest led with a 5.0% decline, but the Pacific West Region had the steepest decline in actual numbers - with a decrease of 1.3 million visits. The Intermountain Region’s annual recreation visits decreased for the eleventh time in the last thirteen years. The Northeast region shows the smallest variation, with a decline of just 0.2%."

Speer Carrier
10-29-2007, 13:02
I was told recently that Bill Bryson's book caused the extreme spike (1999 or 2000?)
and these numbers have just slowly returned to a more norm.

What we see is maybe something akin to what happened to marathon running. After Frank Shorter (an American) won the gold in the olympic marathon, there was a big spike in marathon running but the numbers have come down since that time. At the same time, the number of people actually finishing a marathon as a percent of those who start has gone up, and the overall average time for the mass of runners has also come down. Since running my last marathon in 1980, I have been a volunteer for every Atlanta marathon since. We use to get excuse from our duties at noon with many stragglers and walker still on the course. Now we get dismissed at 11:00 AM with every basically everyone who entered having finished.

So the casual runner, caught up in the euphoria of Shorters run is no longer running,and only the serious runners are.

Maybe Bryson's book produced something similar for hikers, and now we see just those who are more serious about completing even making the attempt

I'd be curious to see if the number of section hikers has gone up as the number of thru hikers has gone down.

stranger
10-30-2007, 21:05
Well I can vouch for atleast one statistic being off next year because I do not plan, nor would I know how, to "sign in" for a thru-hike attempt. I didn't register when I completed the Long Trail, either times, and I didn't register at Amicalola in 1995 when I attempted my first thru.

I will leave from USFS 42 in April and will probably forget to sign in at Neels Gap as I don't plan on staying there anyway, we'll see. And if I make it I would imagine I won't care to tell the ATC either, I'm going on the trail to experience it, not anything else.

In 2001 I hiked 500 miles and went through Harpers Ferry, I hung around the ATC and watched everyone get their picture taken. I didn't do the same because I wasn't thru-hiking. It didn't seem right.

jersey joe
10-31-2007, 13:59
Yeah they spiked from the early 90's, before Bryson's book, up to 2001 aka the millenium. I think y'all are giving Bryson too much credit.

I'm not saying other factors, such as the internet, didn't influence the spike in thru hiker ATTEMPTS. But to not give credit to a NY Times best selling book would be hard to do. Here is a quote I just took from wikipedia...

"there is little doubt that the book has attracted many new hikers to the Appalachian Trail. The Appalachian Trail Conservancy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appalachian_Trail_Conservancy) attributes the dramatic spike in thru-hike attempts in the late 1990s mainly to the influence of the book"

A-Train
10-31-2007, 14:35
I'm not saying other factors, such as the internet, didn't influence the spike in thru hiker ATTEMPTS. But to not give credit to a NY Times best selling book would be hard to do. Here is a quote I just took from wikipedia...

"there is little doubt that the book has attracted many new hikers to the Appalachian Trail. The Appalachian Trail Conservancy (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appalachian_Trail_Conservancy) attributes the dramatic spike in thru-hike attempts in the late 1990s mainly to the influence of the book"

Agreed! I had little knowledge and interest in the AT before reading the book and went on to thru-hike it, section on it, and work as a ridgerunner. Guess I can say the book changed my life! or atleast was a vehicle towards a major interest and life change

Lemni Skate
09-24-2009, 11:59
I think a lot of things contribute to the trends, but cheap outdoor recreation gets replaced by all sorts of things when the economy is strong as it had been the past 2 decades and while people have gone "green" in many ways there seems to have been a move away from outdoor sports in general. I think this contributes to the decline and I think this stuff is cylical so look for a rebound.

As far as the completion rate going up. More info, more info, more info.

weary
09-24-2009, 16:26
Maybe WhiteBlaze also scares off people. :welcome
You beat me to it, Sarge. There has to be fewer totally ignorant people attempting a hike now, than when I walked north in 1993. I'd been a weekend and an occasional week long hiker for decades. But I saw people on the trail in '93 who had never seen a trail before, and who had never even read anything about trails.

Now most anyone who bothers can easily get at least some inkling about what a long distance hike entails. Knowledge, I'm sure, must give many second thoughts about their dreams of thru hiking.

Weary

Jack Tarlin
09-24-2009, 16:40
Actually, the "knowledge" thing (i.e. the Internet, etc). does NOT give people second thoughts......I think in some cases it does just the opposite.

Also, Weary, people can spend years reading books, journals, hanging out On-line. This might make them better "informed".

It by no means insures that they aren't still ignorant. Not everyone that is exposed to information or knowledge necessarily profits by it or learns anything from it. Believe me, I encounter Dartmouth students every day of my life, and some of them are the most benighted, ill-educated, ignorant folks I've ever met. :rolleyes:

weary
09-24-2009, 22:44
Actually, the "knowledge" thing (i.e. the Internet, etc). does NOT give people second thoughts......I think in some cases it does just the opposite.

Also, Weary, people can spend years reading books, journals, hanging out On-line. This might make them better "informed".

It by no means insures that they aren't still ignorant. Not everyone that is exposed to information or knowledge necessarily profits by it or learns anything from it. Believe me, I encounter Dartmouth students every day of my life, and some of them are the most benighted, ill-educated, ignorant folks I've ever met. :rolleyes:
Jack. As usual, you offer nothing that I can disagree with. I tried for years to correct the errors a new executive editor was trying to promulgate on the news staff of the newspaper where we both worked.

He now directs the largest university journalism program in Massachusetts. I finally took early retirement (well two months early) to avoid the paper trail he was developing in an effort to fire me.

All newspapers are in financial difficulty these days as reader interests change. But I find it fascinating that both my old newspaper and the newspaper the editor moved to when he finally left, are among those in the most dire circumstances.

Both newspapers won many journalism awards. Both forgot that readers mostly just want to know what happened yesterday, something that is outside of the perview of most award panels..

Weary

Jack Tarlin
09-24-2009, 22:46
Weary:

I wholeheartedly agree with your description of the Boston Globe. :D

weary
09-24-2009, 22:52
Weary:

I wholeheartedly agree with your description of the Boston Globe. :D

My editor never worked for the Globe. He just read it religously and followed its every twist and turn while both papers inched towards death. How do you suppose he became head of a major university journalism department?

Weary

David@whiteblaze
09-26-2009, 16:21
,,,448 nobo plus 38 FF plus 16 forders equals 502 thru-hikers. Congratulations to all the hikers who started, sectioned, overcame injuries and thru-hiked this year!"

This from the Ferryman today... so I guess almost half of the ones who started this year made it? Way to go!!!
I hurt myself almost every day... Yay me!!!:D:D:D

pdhoffman
12-08-2009, 18:11
Love it or hate it (and there seems to be no in between), Bryson's book caused a huge spike in the number of thruhike starters after it was published in 1998. In 2000 there were nearly 3000 starters. That number has rolled off the list at the ATC site with the passing time. And I am sure that many of those people had no business being out there. The Approach Trail and/or Sassafras Mtn. is a rude kick in the butt for anyone who went into this starry eyed.

The numbers declined every year since 2000 and are just basically returning to normal and seem to have bottomed out at 1125 for northbounders in 2007 This year the number was actually up to 1425 due to the economy. There was a ridgerunner camped on Springer when I started April 1 taking a count and talking to people. He said a lot of people were saying that they lost their jobs, and hiking was now an opportunity and cheap besides.

Pete "Old Corpus" Hoffman

weary
12-08-2009, 22:41
Love it or hate it (and there seems to be no in between), Bryson's book caused a huge spike in the number of thruhike starters after it was published in 1998. In 2000 there were nearly 3000 starters. That number has rolled off the list at the ATC site with the passing time. And I am sure that many of those people had no business being out there. The Approach Trail and/or Sassafras Mtn. is a rude kick in the butt for anyone who went into this starry eyed.

The numbers declined every year since 2000 and are just basically returning to normal and seem to have bottomed out at 1125 for northbounders in 2007 This year the number was actually up to 1425 due to the economy. There was a ridgerunner camped on Springer when I started April 1 taking a count and talking to people. He said a lot of people were saying that they lost their jobs, and hiking was now an opportunity and cheap besides.

Pete "Old Corpus" Hoffman
We should be all wishing Bill a happy birthday. Bill Bryson became 58 or so this morning,

All day I've toyed with the idea of mentioning this fact -- ever since Garrison Keillor mentioned it this morning on public radio.

Whatever. Happy birthday, Bill B. and best wishes for many more.

Weary

Okie Dokie
12-09-2009, 00:23
I'd guess the number of "thru" hikers would be relatively constant, year to year...the number of slackpackers, yellow blazers, and blue blazers (who go on to advertise them selves as thru hikers) as well..."starters" may have gone up but starters aren't always finishers...don't think Bryson was a thru hiker...

The Mechanical Man
12-09-2009, 02:50
We should be all wishing Bill a happy birthday. Bill Bryson became 58 or so this morning,

All day I've toyed with the idea of mentioning this fact -- ever since Garrison Keillor mentioned it this morning on public radio.

Whatever. Happy birthday, Bill B. and best wishes for many more.

Weary

Happy Birthday to Bill Bryson. :banana

Post it here, ....... http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showpost.php?p=924636&postcount=1