View Full Version : Shouldn't 07 Thu hike completions be higher?
hopefulhiker
11-26-2007, 21:26
2007 Northbounders as of October 30, 2007
Springer Mtn., Ga. 1125
Neels Gap, Ga. (30 miles) 1005
Harpers Ferry, W.Va. (1,000 miles) 613
Katahdin, Maine (2,175 miles) 188*
That Katahdin number is atleast 225 by now. I think, from what I have read, thru-hiker numbers are returning to reality, they went up after "A walk in the woods" came out, and now they are settling down to realistic number.
Kirby
Tha Wookie
11-26-2007, 21:32
realistic? wait till the movie comes out!
Lone Wolf
11-26-2007, 21:34
there is no movie coming out :rolleyes:
what did happen with the movie? perhaps a topic for a new thread?
SGT Rock
11-26-2007, 21:40
what did happen with the movie? perhaps a topic for a new thread?
Per a reference found via Google:
Redford and Paul Newman were to work together once again in A WALK IN THE WOODS but Newman has opted out, leaving the Redfort heartbroken. (Octobe r2007)
hopefulhiker
11-26-2007, 21:44
2,000-milers2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Total hike completions recorded:
633
622
589
600
578
546
488
It looks like the numbers for this year even if they wre 377 or so then it would still be a drop.. Why is this?
I don't think the word "should" has a place here. I would say it's a matter of statistical fluctuation.
there is no movie coming out :rolleyes:
Thank god, there would be people out there with less experience then me!:rolleyes:
Kirby
SGT Rock
11-26-2007, 21:56
Thank god, there would be people out there with less experience then me!:rolleyes:
Kirby
Don't fret Kirby. I am sure there still will be.
Frolicking Dinosaurs
11-26-2007, 21:57
It was a rough year for both heat and lack of water - that may have reduced the number of completions.
Don't fret Kirby. I am sure there still will be.
I have backpacked 125 miles more than a lot of people who start these things, from what I hear.
'08 will be tough with water as well FD, which could see the completion percentage drop to all time lows.
Kirby
SGT Rock
11-26-2007, 22:03
I have backpacked 125 miles more than a lot of people who start these things, from what I hear.
'08 will be tough with water as well FD, which could see the completion percentage drop to all time lows.
Kirby
Could be - but per the Farmer's Almanac we should have slightly above average rain fall in the Appalachians this winter and spring.
Could be - but per the Farmer's Almanac we should have slightly above average rain fall in the Appalachians this winter and spring.
Which is a good thing, I have heard there are 25-35 mile stretches where this no water. If things don't improve, southern AT hiker/residents might consider leaving water on the trail every now and then in really dry spots, I would hate to see fellow hikers drop off trail because of lack of water, looks like we will have to carry a lot of water Sarge if things dont go by the almanac.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst,
Kirby
Lone Wolf
11-26-2007, 22:09
water will be the least of your worries in georgia during march
SGT Rock
11-26-2007, 22:12
Which is a good thing, I have heard there are 25-35 mile stretches where this no water. If things don't improve, southern AT hiker/residents might consider leaving water on the trail every now and then in really dry spots, I would hate to see fellow hikers drop off trail because of lack of water, looks like we will have to carry a lot of water Sarge if things dont go by the almanac.
Hope for the best, prepare for the worst,
Kirby
Agreed. I've been watching November rainfall amounts for the Smokies starting this month (which is supposed to be the start of the above average rainfall) to see if it is right. Up until today we were about 2.8" which is 1.1" from making the average rainfall for November. Today it is raining - forcasted for the rest of today and maybe more later in the week, so there is a good chance we will have the first month of positive rain fall since this summer's drought. The lakes down in the low ground may need some months of this, but my experience with the creeks and springs of the Smokies and the Nantahals is the water is starting to run again in the high country.
water will be the least of your worries in georgia during march
What else should I worry about besides keeping warm and making sure I don't hurt myself hiking?
Kirby
Jim Adams
11-26-2007, 22:15
Kirby,
You have no idea how much more prepared you are than alot that you will see. You will run into people with 60-70lb. packs, carrying things in their hands and arms and stupid things like hammers for their tent pegs.
You my friend are set!
geek
Agreed. I've been watching November rainfall amounts for the Smokies starting this month (which is supposed to be the start of the above average rainfall) to see if it is right. Up until today we were about 2.8" which is 1.1" from making the average rainfall for November. Today it is raining - forcasted for the rest of today and maybe more later in the week, so there is a good chance we will have the first month of positive rain fall since this summer's drought. The lakes down in the low ground may need some months of this, but my experience with the creeks and springs of the Smokies and the Nantahals is the water is starting to run again in the high country.
This is encouraging, I would hate to have to carry 2-3 days worth of water because of the drought. keep me posted on how the water sources are doing if you venture into the high country over the next couple of months.
Kirby
The population is getting older and young people are more and more into computer games.
Based on history, I expect the numbers will pick. up in a few years. Thru hiking attempts increased greatly in the 70s. No one really knows why. My theory is that those that had spent their childhood entranced by that new thing, television, suddenly woke up and realized their childhood was ending..
I'm hoping and expect that the existing generation of teens and 20s will soon realize that there are more important thing than electronic games, and get back into the outdoors.
Weary
I'm hoping and expect that the existing generation of teens and 20s will soon realize that there are more important thing than electronic games, and get back into the outdoors.
Weary
I certainly hope so, my generation is so lazy, it is rediculous.
Kirby
SGT Rock
11-26-2007, 22:20
This is encouraging, I would hate to have to carry 2-3 days worth of water because of the drought. keep me posted on how the water sources are doing if you venture into the high country over the next couple of months.
Kirby
If? Pffttt. I have to spend a couple of weeks in GA training reservists, but when I get back I'll be out every weekend I can getting over my cold weather wus issues.:sun
Jim Adams
11-26-2007, 22:21
Weary,
good reasoning. I always thought that the increase in the 70's had something to do with the new cars being boring and gas doubling in price...just a thought.
geek
If? Pffttt. I have to spend a couple of weeks in GA training reservists, but when I get back I'll be out every weekend I can getting over my cold weather wus issues.:sun
:D
Fantastic, in that case, I look forward to the water updates.
Show those reservists how it's done Sarge.:banana
Kirby
Kirby,
You have no idea how much more prepared you are than alot that you will see. You will run into people with 60-70lb. packs, carrying things in their hands and arms and stupid things like hammers for their tent pegs.
You my friend are set!
geek
Jim..this is classic! There are hikers that would actually carry hammers to put in the tent pegs? They haven't been camping before and discovered that a rock (which by the way one finds in woods thus doesn't have to be carried!) works just fine?? I got a good chuckle out of this one!
As for the heavy packs..doesn't that work it self out? I mean..if you start off with 65 pounds say...odds are weight will be dropped real soon..like at Neels Gap!
David
I'm hoping and expect that the existing generation of teens and 20s will soon realize that there are more important thing than electronic games, and get back into the outdoors.
Weary
People are getting into the outdoors, even more so than in the 1970s.
However, as has been said before, backpacking (and camping) is not as popular as even 10 yrs ago. Day hiking is about the same.. The big trend is front country "done in a day" actitivities: Mountain biking, climbing, trail running, etc.
I sincerely doubt we'll see a shift towards more backpacking in the years ahead unless we see a big cultural change. Americans want to fill their day with multiple activities.
Go out for a run/bike/hike, grab dinner with friends, head to the party afterwards. I'm guilty of this at times, too A whole weekend dedicated to something as genteel and time consuming as backpacking? Happens less and less in today's society.
I hope I'm wrong. I'm afraid I am not.
Skidsteer
11-26-2007, 23:47
What else should I worry about besides keeping warm and making sure I don't hurt myself hiking?
Kirby
What else do you need to worry about?
That's a nice thing about hiking on the AT. Short list of worries and many can be solved with a long hike to town.
CoyoteWhips
11-26-2007, 23:56
Weary,
good reasoning. I always thought that the increase in the 70's had something to do with the new cars being boring and gas doubling in price...just a thought.
As I recall in my mangled memory of the 70's, mountain man culture enjoyed some fad popularity. We grew up watching Daniel Boone and Davy Crockett. Grizzly Adams got a good long run on TV. Bunch of people wanted to don buckskin and walk around in the mountains.
CoyoteWhips
11-26-2007, 23:59
You don't think the popular survival shows aren't going to make people want to see what they can do in the wilderness for a week with a leatherman and stick?
Skidsteer
11-27-2007, 00:01
You don't think the popular survival shows aren't going to make people want to see what they can do in the wilderness for a week with a leatherman and stick?
Not really. All that stuff is much easier on the couch.
Alligator
11-27-2007, 00:05
Not really. All that stuff is much easier on the couch.That was real funny:).
Skidsteer
11-27-2007, 00:11
That was real funny:).
Damn!
Just burned a hole in the cushion. Too much friction.
Jim Adams
11-27-2007, 00:15
As I recall in my mangled memory of the 70's, mountain man culture enjoyed some fad popularity. We grew up watching Daniel Boone and Davy Crockett. Grizzly Adams got a good long run on TV. Bunch of people wanted to don buckskin and walk around in the mountains.
Never thought of that either! Could be VERY true...that is when the big muzzleloader hunting movement took hold.
Damn Buckskin!!!!:D
geek
Alligator
11-27-2007, 00:27
Damn!
Just burned a hole in the cushion. Too much friction.I can skin a cushion real easy like but I aint eatin no Chinese pillow stuffing:cool: .
Jim Adams
11-27-2007, 00:36
[quote=DavidNH;456485]Jim..this is classic! There are hikers that would actually carry hammers to put in the tent pegs? They haven't been camping before and discovered that a rock (which by the way one finds in woods thus doesn't have to be carried!) works just fine?? I got a good chuckle out of this one!
As for the heavy packs..doesn't that work it self out? I mean..if you start off with 65 pounds say...odds are weight will be dropped real soon..like at Neels Gap!
I am not making this up.
In 2002 I started my thru at the falls and did the approach trail. This was my second thru and I had not done the approach trail the first time. Although it can be a long day due to a lack of conditioning, since I had already completed a thru, I didn't think the approach trail was as bad as everyone said it would be.
About half way to Springer I noticed a VERY tall person ahead of me. His pack was huge and had things strapped to the top of it far above his head. As I got closer I realized that it had a pair of hiking shoes dangling by their laces hanging below the pack and smacking this guy in the ass with every step. There was a gallon can of Coleman fuel strapped to the back of the pack and this guy was moving at about 1/2 mph. He looked to be moving about the speed of the climbers that you see on TV climbing Everest. I could not see his hands swinging or the use of poles. As I past him I found that he had a tent in its stuffsack, carrying it across his arms. I have no idea how big the tent was but the stuff sack was about a foot in diameter and two foot long.
He was a very tall guy and looked to be in great shape but his pack weight was killing him. That night on top of Springer I talked to him some about getting rid of some weight. He didn't know that he could have his spare hiking boots shipped to him later and he also figured that if he was very frugal, the SPARE gallon of fuel outside the pack along with the gallon INSIDE the pack would last him the entire trail!
When he got to Neel's Gap he re-outfitted and immediately blew out a 30 mile day with his new 22lb. pack. He completed the AT and turned out to be one of the strongest hikers that I have ever seen and has since also done the PCT.
You never know what you will see!...guaranteed at least a hatchet or two.
geek
Geek...at first I thought I knew who you were talking about, but the one I'm thinking of from 02 wasn't a tall hiker....but I do remember this particular fellow i'm thinking of carrying around 80-100lbs in the beginning. A few of us helped him get his pack weight down at Gooch Shelter, then again at Neel's with the help of Walasi-Yi...
It's true, you never know what you will see, and you will always be surprised!!
Dakota Dan
11-27-2007, 00:59
Get the ATC to do an "Award Ceremony" at Trail Days. :rolleyes:
Good luck on that one.:banana
It might encourage new and currently-on-trail hikers if you could
You don't think the popular survival shows aren't going to make people want to see what they can do in the wilderness for a week with a leatherman and stick?Naw...people are too lazy to do stuff like that. That's why the shows are popular.
Appalachian Tater
11-27-2007, 08:59
The population is getting older and young people are more and more into computer games.
Based on history, I expect the numbers will pick. up in a few years. Thru hiking attempts increased greatly in the 70s. No one really knows why. My theory is that those that had spent their childhood entranced by that new thing, television, suddenly woke up and realized their childhood was ending..
I'm hoping and expect that the existing generation of teens and 20s will soon realize that there are more important thing than electronic games, and get back into the outdoors.
Weary
Unfortunately, I think the shift from rural to urban is a factor and isn't going away. If they aren't playing games, they're talking on the cell phone. It doesn't look like a fad anymore than the land-line telephone, the radio or television turned out to be. Weary, do you know what a "Wii" is? "The Matrix"?
Critterman
11-27-2007, 10:48
If? Pffttt. I have to spend a couple of weeks in GA training reservists, but when I get back I'll be out every weekend I can getting over my cold weather wus issues.:sun
I know what you mean. I think alot of it is attitude.
There is an old story about the Alaskan pipeline workers from the lower 48 complaining about not staying warm and wondering how the Native American workers seemed to stay warm because they never complained about being cold. The Native Americans said they didn't stay warm but also didn't expect to. Every time I go hiking or backpacking in the winter I think about that story and adjust my expectations and I am usually much happier.
CoyoteWhips
11-27-2007, 12:49
Clever. I will try this.
You should! It really clears up the rash quick.
Kirby,
You have no idea how much more prepared you are than alot that you will see. You will run into people with 60-70lb. packs, carrying things in their hands and arms and stupid things like hammers for their tent pegs.
You my friend are set!
geek
Heh this is funny to read. Several years ago myself and a friend went up to the whites to do some walking for 10 days. I had what ended up being an 80 lb pack (things like a hatchet, extra blankets, several pairs of extra clothes I didnt need, a few flashlights). I think I made it maybe a mile up the Lincoln woods trail before I turned around for the car to unpack as much as I could.
I was fine carrying 80lbs on my back walking around the neighborhood, that all changed once I got in the woods. I am glad we turned around, it made for a much better experience.
Lion King
11-27-2007, 12:59
you better worry about water in GA/NC/TN this year...
If anyone's still interested in numbers...
As of today we've received 226 reports from 2007 northbounders. (we'll update our website shortly). Last year we had received 278 on this date. Reports are still rolling in, though--the total will probably eventually reach about 275.
We've also received reports from 17 sobos and 14 flip-floppers.
Laurie
ATC
March is fine w/ water in Georgia, I have hiked Springer to the NOC 3 of the last 4 years.. and it has been plentiful. I would agree w/ L. Wolf, my worry is always the freak snow-storm that hits sometime each March / April. BUt the water is always good, and if not, just boil some snow ;)
EarlyBird2007
11-27-2007, 14:51
It looks like the numbers for this year even if they wre 377 or so then it would still be a drop.. Why is this?
I heard some folks at ATC say they think the reason the numbers are down has to do with the fairly extreme temperature fluctuations early in the season. It got really cold in the Smokies around Easter, then got really hot in Virginia during June. That caused a lot of people to bail at those times. Personally, I didn't think the weather was too bad during my thru-hike. But I was able to get out of the south before the really hot weather. Others weren't as fortunate.
ferryman
11-27-2007, 20:24
The numbers from the Kennebec River Ferry Service include 448 northbound thru-hikers, 141 southbound "potential" thru-hikers, 37 N-S flipfloppers, 21 S-N flipfloppers, 13 northbound thru-hikers who forded and perhaps close to 30 section hikers finishing up their hikes after many years...at Katahdin. Still waiting on one or two more hikers expected to cross the river later this month. Best for the Holiday season to all! Steve Longley
Bare Bear
11-27-2007, 20:34
Crap......does that mean I have to grow up and start another career (for the third time?)....maybe JellyBean is right and I should just go do the PCT in 08 with the rest of the AT Class of 2006.
Frolicking Dinosaurs
11-27-2007, 20:41
Given what Ferryman Steve has said, it seems quite a few more thru'ed than applied for the patch. Is it just me or is getting the ATC patch becoming less important among thru's?
John Klein
11-27-2007, 21:15
If? Pffttt. I have to spend a couple of weeks in GA training reservists, but when I get back I'll be out every weekend I can getting over my cold weather wus issues.:sun
Do you by any chance train soldiers at Camp Merrill? Last week I camped overnight at "The Bald" on the BMT and the helicopters and gunfire were going right up until sundown.
SGT Rock
11-27-2007, 21:33
No, going down to Fort Stewart near Savannah, GA. I'm taking my gear just in case I get a day off.
And, FWIW, November in the Knoxville, G-Burg, Maryville AO just exceeded the normal average rainfall for November by about 1/4" yesterday. The forecast is fluctuating for the rest of the month, but I hope we get about 1/4" more before December. It's a small victory, but it is a start.
Frolicking Dinosaurs
11-27-2007, 21:39
And, FWIW, November in the Knoxville, G-Burg, Maryville AO just exceeded the normal average rainfall for November by about 1/4" yesterday.We darn-near needed a canoe to get home yesterday! The rain is picking up - just hope it keeps up.
Jim Adams
11-27-2007, 21:40
Given what Ferryman Steve has said, it seems quite a few more thru'ed than applied for the patch. Is it just me or is getting the ATC patch becoming less important among thru's?
I've never applied...the trip was the important part!:sun
geek
No, going down to Fort Stewart near Savannah, GA. I'm taking my gear just in case I get a day off.
And, FWIW, November in the Knoxville, G-Burg, Maryville AO just exceeded the normal average rainfall for November by about 1/4" yesterday. The forecast is fluctuating for the rest of the month, but I hope we get about 1/4" more before December. It's a small victory, but it is a start.
Thanks for the update Rock and FD, this is music to my ears.
Kirby
SGT Rock
11-27-2007, 21:45
On the NC side they have almost gone over the normal average by 1".
On the NC side they have almost gone over the normal average by 1".
:banana:banana:banana:banana
Kirby
Dakota Dan
11-27-2007, 23:27
Given what Ferryman Steve has said, it seems quite a few more thru'ed than applied for the patch. Is it just me or is getting the ATC patch becoming less important among thru's?
It's always about the adventure, even if it doesn't start out that way.
Maybe some just don't know about the patch. But, in this day with the WWW its hard to believe.
Back in 76 at Springer the only thing I knew was the trail ended somewhere in Maine. Knew nothing about the total miles, number of states or that there was an ATC. But I got quickly educated, let me tell you. Without the help (and charity) of my friends relatives I would have hitchhiked back home pretty quickly. For this help I will always be grateful.
I am not making this up. .... snip....
You never know what you will see!...guaranteed at least a hatchet or two.
geek
Yeah, people will carry the most amazing things. I've even seen pictures of this one guy who carried a CAT, yes, a cat... okay, so it was a kitten when he started... but it duh, who doesn't know that a cute little kitten will grow up to be a CAT!?! :eek:
Oh, wait... that was a guy named Jim Adams aka Geek. Wasn't it? :eek:
Thanks for the update Rock and FD, this is music to my ears.
Kirby
I don't mean to rain on your parade, but one month does not make a trend. Still, the news is better than a bucket of dead fish.
General Tso
11-28-2007, 00:58
I was number 325 or something picking up the 2000 miler application at Katahdin Stream on Sept 29th. Like others, I haven't sent my application in yet. I do not care about a patch or a cert but if it would make the numbers a bit more accurate...
The ATC should adapt the policy of using either the numbers from Katahdin Stream or from the ferryman, they are clearly more accurate.
Kirby
Lone Wolf
11-28-2007, 07:30
in the end who really cares? i think lie detector tests should be given to each hiker at katahdin stream claiming a thru-hike. numbers would go way down
The ATC should adapt the policy of using either the numbers from Katahdin Stream or from the ferryman, they are clearly more accurate.
Kirby
Ah, but those numbers would not include the all-important SOBO group!
Seriously, the numbers will never be all that accurate. The claims of purists aside, long distance hiking can be a messy business. There are thrus who have skipped bits that they have to make up later, flipfloppers, section hikers, long section hikers (someone who has hiked from, say, Waynesboro, VA, to Katahdin is likely to call themselves a NOBO by the time they get to Maine, and I wouldn't argue with that description), and stealth hikers who make a point of flying under the radar. The current system of voluntary declarations, plus reports from the state parks and the ferryman is close enough.
hello
If I could make a suggestion on casting for a walk in the woods...Bill Murray and John Goodman. Looks like the weather patterns for hiking this year are allowing for a little more water. Here in the higher elevations of Ky we are having a lot of rain and have even had some snow.
wudhipy
Flush2wice
11-28-2007, 09:30
According to my source (http://averyweather.com/Fearless+Forecast) western NC is in for a dry winter.
60% of average snow
Temperatures 1-2 degrees above normal
Drier than normal
Where I live this is driest I've ever seen it. I was in Erwin the other day and you could just about rock hop the Nolichucky. Paddlers say it's ideal at 2,000 cfs. Right now its at 360.
CoyoteWhips
11-28-2007, 11:29
Seriously, the numbers will never be all that accurate. The claims of purists aside, long distance hiking can be a messy business.
If they can strive to make the numbers consistently inaccurate each year, at least one can see the long term trend.
Though, when you're talking about *0.0001% of the population of the US, it's a pretty cozy club no matter how you count it.
If I could make a suggestion on casting for a walk in the woods...Bill Murray and John Goodman.
Oh, Al Pacino and Tommy Lee Jones!
*Population: 301,139,947. About 300 thrus. I think I have the decimal in the right place.
Jim Adams
11-28-2007, 11:57
Characters for A WALK IN THE WOODS?
Adam Sandler and Ralphie May...the sarcasim alone would make the movie!
geek
The ATC should adapt the policy of using either the numbers from Katahdin Stream or from the ferryman, they are clearly more accurate.
If I'm not mistaken they do already.
2,000-Milers: Where Do We Get the Numbers? (http://www.appalachiantrail.org/site/c.jkLXJ8MQKtH/b.851153/k.580C/2000Milers_Where_Do_We_Get_the_Numbers.htm)
Lone Wolf
11-28-2007, 12:13
If anyone's still interested in numbers...
As of today we've received 226 reports from 2007 northbounders. (we'll update our website shortly). Last year we had received 278 on this date. Reports are still rolling in, though--the total will probably eventually reach about 275.
We've also received reports from 17 sobos and 14 flip-floppers.
Laurie
ATC
seems the ATC waits for folks to report in, Sly
seems the ATC waits for folks to report in, Sly
Yup see the link I added above.
Yup see the link I added above.
The link did not work for me.
The link did not work for me.
Oh well, works here. Search the ATC site.
Oh well, works here. Search the ATC site.
Something must be going on with my ISP and DNS. I cannot get to the ATC site at all.
Frolicking Dinosaurs
11-28-2007, 12:43
Link was interesting and explains a lot about why the numbers are so unreliable. When we started our section hike, there was a guy up on Springer taking down names and such. He completely ignored us. I guess an older couple with the old guy carrying a day pack didn't mean section hiker to this guy. (We hiked up Springer from FS 42, returned to the car and got our real packs to go on to Unicoi Gap :D)
hello
If I could make a suggestion on casting for a walk in the woods...Bill Murray and John Goodman. Looks like the weather patterns for hiking this year are allowing for a little more water. Here in the higher elevations of Ky we are having a lot of rain and have even had some snow.
wudhipy
This made me laugh cause when i read the book i always envision katz to be the fat guy from boogie nights. not sure who could play bill
Strange. The ATC appears to use the Kennebec River count for SOBO numbers by applying a 30% completion estimate, but does not use the Kennebec NOBO count at all. Seems they would get a better number by using the Kennebec NOBO number and applying a 98%+ completion estimate. Or am I missing something here? :-?
(I am able to get on the ATC site now.)
stacy324
11-28-2007, 13:49
[quote=DavidNH;456485]I am not making this up.
In 2002 I started my thru at the falls and did the approach trail. This was my second thru and I had not done the approach trail the first time. Although it can be a long day due to a lack of conditioning, since I had already completed a thru, I didn't think the approach trail was as bad as everyone said it would be.
About half way to Springer I noticed a VERY tall person ahead of me. His pack was huge and had things strapped to the top of it far above his head. As I got closer I realized that it had a pair of hiking shoes dangling by their laces hanging below the pack and smacking this guy in the ass with every step. There was a gallon can of Coleman fuel strapped to the back of the pack and this guy was moving at about 1/2 mph. He looked to be moving about the speed of the climbers that you see on TV climbing Everest. I could not see his hands swinging or the use of poles. As I past him I found that he had a tent in its stuffsack, carrying it across his arms. I have no idea how big the tent was but the stuff sack was about a foot in diameter and two foot long.
He was a very tall guy and looked to be in great shape but his pack weight was killing him. That night on top of Springer I talked to him some about getting rid of some weight. He didn't know that he could have his spare hiking boots shipped to him later and he also figured that if he was very frugal, the SPARE gallon of fuel outside the pack along with the gallon INSIDE the pack would last him the entire trail!
When he got to Neel's Gap he re-outfitted and immediately blew out a 30 mile day with his new 22lb. pack. He completed the AT and turned out to be one of the strongest hikers that I have ever seen and has since also done the PCT.
geek
on March 29th 2002 I passed a guy that met this description while going up Sassafras Mountain. Any chance it was the same guy?
I keep hearing about the Kennebec River ferry numbers, but the ferry is only open what? 4-5 hours a day? I crossed before 7 AM in the morning and left no record of passing through as I suspect many others did. The Kennebec that was so deep at 8 PM the night before was barely mid-calf at 7 AM. Best estimates are the best any one can hope for.
If you look at many of the perrenial hikers out there, they never bother with paperwork. It's their lifestyle.
For me, I did my paperwork and mounted the certificate on a huge map of the AT that is also covered with pictures from all up and down the trail. If the certificate weren't there though, it wouldn't at all detract from the joy I take from looking back on the memories that map and pictures bring me.
Jim Adams
11-28-2007, 19:41
[quote=Jim Adams;456574]
on March 29th 2002 I passed a guy that met this description while going up Sassafras Mountain. Any chance it was the same guy?
No, couldn't have been. I saw him on the approach trail on March 18, 2002.
You just saw another of the many!:D
geek
Dakota Dan
11-28-2007, 19:57
Will there be a positive or negative impact on anything related to the number of thru hike completions or attempts?
Will there be a positive or negative impact on anything related to the number of thru hike completions or attempts?
When what is taken into account?
Kirby
Alligator
11-28-2007, 20:11
Strange. The ATC appears to use the Kennebec River count for SOBO numbers by applying a 30% completion estimate, but does not use the Kennebec NOBO count at all. Seems they would get a better number by using the Kennebec NOBO number and applying a 98%+ completion estimate. Or am I missing something here? :-?
(I am able to get on the ATC site now.)I think you are missing something. For SOBOs they use a 30% drop out rate to estimate the number of Sobo starters. For NOBOs, they used to use a 20% (and then I think it dropped to 15%) drop out rate from the Neels Gap numbers (if I remember correctly) to calculate NOBO starters. Now it seems they have changed the calculation again to "Calculated by comparing statistics collected at Amicalola Falls, Springer Mountain, and Neels Gap."
I think you are missing something. For SOBOs they use a 30% drop out rate to estimate the number of Sobo starters. For NOBOs, they used to use a 20% (and then I think it dropped to 15%) drop out rate from the Neels Gap numbers (if I remember correctly) to calculate NOBO starters. Now it seems they have changed the calculation again to "Calculated by comparing statistics collected at Amicalola Falls, Springer Mountain, and Neels Gap."
Hmm, and I thought counting the people who completed or were near completion might be more interesting. :-?
Alligator
11-28-2007, 21:21
Hmm, and I thought counting the people who completed or were near completion might be more interesting. :-?They do that by counting the applications (http://www.appalachiantrail.org/site/c.jkLXJ8MQKtH/b.851153/k.580C/2000Milers_Where_Do_We_Get_the_Numbers.htm) for completion.
Now I don't know why they choose not to include the Ferryman's counts for NOBOs either is an estimate of something else or just to show the count.
They do that by counting the applications (http://www.appalachiantrail.org/site/c.jkLXJ8MQKtH/b.851153/k.580C/2000Milers_Where_Do_We_Get_the_Numbers.htm) for completion.
Yes, but what is the count about - how many certificates are issued or how many thru-hikes are completed?
Frolicking Dinosaurs
11-28-2007, 21:47
I don't think there is any way to know how many people actually thru-hike each year. Many are not registered on Springer or Katahdin and don't know or care about the ATC certificate. There is certainly no way to know how many section hikers complete the trail each year - even fewer of those care about the certification.
Yes, but what is the count about - how many certificates are issued or how many thru-hikes are completed?
For 2,000 miler numbers, they track which applications state they completed the trail in one season, section hiking, or flip flopping.
Kirby
I don't think there is any way to know how many people actually thru-hike each year. Many are not registered on Springer or Katahdin and don't know or care about the ATC certificate. There is certainly no way to know how many section hikers complete the trail each year - even fewer of those care about the certification.
Agreed, but it seems that the Kennebec crossing might provide a closer estimate than ATC certifications. Of course, now that Steve the Ferryman is retiring a lot of the record keeping might not be as thorough.
For 2,000 miler numbers, they track which applications state they completed the trail in one season, section hiking, or flip flopping.
Kirby
Thanks Kirby for clarifying what I meant to say.
Alligator
11-28-2007, 22:11
Agreed, but it seems that the Kennebec crossing might provide a closer estimate than ATC certifications. Of course, now that Steve the Ferryman is retiring a lot of the record keeping might not be as thorough.Possibly. Personally, I believe that the certificate counts of completions are biased. Too low IMO, as some don't record their hike. Now, some gripe that many thruhikers claiming the certificate have not completed the trail. I suspect it could be true to some extent. But I still get the impression that there are more underreporters than overreporters.
Now for sectioners, I think this is likely biased low too. I don't know how much. I'm not sure about false claims here either. I always pick up right where I left off, but I don't know if all sectioners are like that. If one could park at the ends of town and not walk through, I could see that happening.
Dakota Dan
11-28-2007, 22:24
Possibly. Personally, I believe that the certificate counts of completions are biased. Too low IMO, as some don't record their hike. ........
I agree, I know the 3 of us that did in 76 and several others that didn't. I never even heard of a certificate until 2007, I bet theres a lot of others out there who also haven't and like me still don't care.
Just curious, when did they ( I assume the ATC) started giving them out?
Possibly. Personally, I believe that the certificate counts of completions are biased. Too low IMO, as some don't record their hike. Now, some gripe that many thruhikers claiming the certificate have not completed the trail. I suspect it could be true to some extent. But I still get the impression that there are more underreporters than overreporters.
Now for sectioners, I think this is likely biased low too. I don't know how much. I'm not sure about false claims here either. I always pick up right where I left off, but I don't know if all sectioners are like that. If one could park at the ends of town and not walk through, I could see that happening.
When picking up where we finished our last section, my brother and I have this stupid tradition of touching the last white blaze we passed on our prior hike. :o
Jim Adams
11-29-2007, 01:01
When picking up where we finished our last section, my brother and I have this stupid tradition of touching the last white blaze we passed on our prior hike. :o
nice tradition!
geek
I don't think it's necessary to make sure you to walk through every town. If it happens fine. If it doesn't, no big deal.
Alligator
11-29-2007, 01:52
I don't think it's necessary to make sure you to walk through every town. If it happens fine. If it doesn't, no big deal.It's a big deal all right. A very big DEAL.
To me;). I consider towns as part of the trail. No problem to me if someone skips all the towns, that's someone else's hike.
SGT Rock
11-29-2007, 23:30
I don't think these numbers will ever be accurate - ever. And really there is no good way to even try. But a count of some sort is a good idea in general. Since the ATC has a system of sorts, then a generally normal margin of error is going to be in there that will at least remain at about the same level. So if they counted this way 10 years ago until now, those numbers are off by about the same percentage over time if you think about it. So while it is true that this isn't an accurate count of how many people finished their thu-hike, it does show a trend and gives a historical comparison against other years that were counted in the same way.
The whole thing reminds me of the Million Man March and how it really wasn't a million men. During that whole debate the Park Service explained how they determine how many people show up to an event. They take a picture of the grounds around the Washington Monument/Lincoln Memorial area and then grid it off and count the number of people in one grid, then multiply it by the number of grids that are full. This obviously is not going to ever be a good count - but the system is as good as any real workable system and can give them trends on how many people show up to events. As I recall, it was more like 800,000 people that actually showed up even though the organizers claimed twice that. So while the actual number of how many showed up can be debated for those that real want to debate the issue - the count was comparable to how many people showed up to other events in the past that were counted in the same way.
Programbo
12-01-2007, 21:31
As for the heavy packs..doesn't that work it self out? I mean..if you start off with 65 pounds say...odds are weight will be dropped real soon..like at Neels Gap!
It`s funny because back in the late 70`s it was popular for all the young macho guys to compete to see who was carrying the biggest, heaviest packs!...(And not heavy because you were carrying a hammer or 4-man canvas tent or something else silly, but maybe 2 weeks worth of food at once)...Anyone could rack up the 20 mile days with a small 25 pound pack but to walk up to the shelter after a 25 mile day and set down your 70 pound Kelty Tioga Expedition model with the optional extra pockets!..Man you were it! :p
Bluebearee
12-01-2007, 21:42
I didn't read all 5 pages here, but when I left BSP 10/27 the # reporting in, and maybe just maybe this forum can keep their panties unbunched about this but I doubt it, was 450. The question asked by the Rangers in collecting and assigning numbers is "did you come all the way from Georgia this season?" That number was down by about 500 (BSP) from previous years. Who reports into the ATC after that is another story. I emailed that # to Laurie P in HF when I left, so I don't know if the ATC website has been updated or not.
Bluebearee
07 & 08? Abol Ridgerunner