NOBO Success Rate?

[Survivor Dave]

Thought I'd throw this one out.

Does anyone know if the rate of completing a NOBO Thru-Hike in the last 10-15 years is higher by starting January 1st through the middle of March, or March 15th through May?
Do people tend to hike slower in the earlier months and faster later months?

I know it depends on the individuals passion for the hike, physical conditioning, and all around mental attitude.

I'll leave the ease(or lack of) re-supplies, shuttles/hitching and hostels/lodging out.........Or should I?

Hmmm......:-?

SD

[A-Train]

I think most would be inclined to say that starting later will give you a better shot at finishing, because of bad weather in the early months. While this is true, I wouldn't necessarily say the sucess rate is higher for april and may starters.

From what I've observed, the hikers who start earlier are simply more serious as an overall group (though there are plenty of exceptions). Folks starting in january, feb and early march typically have a deadline, a reason to finish and a great drive than folks who end up taking some 45 odd zero days and hitching up and back to hiker feeds and parties.

I suspect more folks towards the back of the pack have gotten there by adopting a cavalier attitude towards finishing. Just my guess

[HIKER7s]

My opinion of a prospective AT through hiker possibly failing to make the goal:

The mistake I think as I have seen happen a number of times, some people make, is beginning like the stereotypical ball of fire out of the gate. Then end up bouncing out of the groove because they stopped hiking to their OWN plan. Hooking up with someone is great for a day or two. (I found it too restricting to hike with the same person for more than 2 or three days).

When you get hiking with another individual who also thas their own plan you get different walking styles and endurance disiplines. You become freinds and before you know it your re-adjusting mileages and re-supply scenarios to co-incide with your partner. Sometimes this turns out to be a good thing as the hook-up is with someone with all the same goals of the hike as yourself.

However, a lot of times the dependence that forms on each other brings expectancies of each other (waiting up, slacking off
because the other one wanted to, getting too many zero's, etc).

Best is to stick to your plan and be very mindful not to get caught up in goal changing predicaments.



So if you can, keep the vigil and keep to YOUR plan.

[Survivor Dave]

Thanks for the good advice Hiker7s.

I guess, as I stated, that it is about strict dicipline, hiking your own hike, and keeping the focus. Getting up day after day, no matter the weather or pain, and just keep rolling. Of all of the Thru hikers I have spoken with, the good days out weigh the bad ones(whatever bad means), and the journey is a total life changing experience.

[HIKER7s]

Once your on the trek thru about two months. The good days are great, the bad days are few, the wet-wet days are just slogging days. Your endurance should be prime and your main personal objective besides Katahdin should be to stay healthy.

That done before you know it your there. Then the hard part begins....having to leave the trail.