View Full Version : Is April 1st late?
Powder River
01-03-2008, 20:46
I've been planning my thru for at least six months now. I am looking forward to it as an experience, and I hope I'll have the grace to accept whatever my 'lot' is on the trail. I am very determined to make it all the way to K, however I think the real magic of it will be in getting there.
My original plans had me leaving March 22, but then I got an opportunity to make lots more $$$ in the last week of March, putting me at an April 1 start date.
I do not care about the cold, trail conditions or any other of those kinds of differences in the two start dates. What I am concerned about is missing the majority of people who will be 08 NOBOs. I want to meet lots of people, make friends and have good memories of the trail. Can I count on still doing this with an April 1 start date? Or will I daily arrive at shelters to find them empty, only to read in the register about all the fun everyone had? Or will there be plenty of people on the trail that late? I realize that no one person hiking in 08 can meet everyone, but what do you think? Now if the late start date means that the folks I do end up hiking with will always have room in the shelters, that's not such a bad thing. There's something to be said for avoiding HUGE crowds. And I don't NEED people. It's just that I'm looking for a "complete" trail experience.
The other concern is phsycological. I will have exactly six months to hike, and if I really am behind most everyone, I think that could effect morale.
In other words, how big of crowds should I assume will be starting around April 1st?
Thanks.
Jack Tarlin
01-03-2008, 20:49
There will be lots of folks starting right around 1 April, and that's because it's a perfect time to start.
Have a great trip.
mountain squid
01-03-2008, 21:02
Last year there were 39 hikers that started on 4/1, Sunday (not including section hikers - 19). On Monday, 4/2, there were at least 24 hikers beginning (8 sectioners). Don't worry....there will be plenty of camaraderie the first week of April (and you'll probably catch up to many of the March starters eventually.)
See you on the trail,
mt squid
There will be lots of folks starting right around 1 April, and that's because it's a perfect time to start.
Have a great trip.
Because of last minute complications dealing with family matters, I left the summit of Springer on April 15 in 1993 and met hundreds of great people -- too many at times. Some rainy nights we slept head to toe in the shelters to enable everyone to fit.
But some of my fondest memories from a relatively long life are for the people I met in 1993.
BTW I climbed Katahdin six months and one day later. Quite a few hundreds of people will join you on April 1, and a few of those will still be with you or a bit earlier, or just behind, when you summit Katahdin.
There is not one trail experience, but thousands of trail experiences. I know of no evidence that the time of your start will influence that experience one iota in terms of better or worse..
Weary
April 1 is perfect. Go for it.
From what I understand, 4/1 is also popular because some hikers like to walk into Trail Days in Damascus, which is mid-May, and by starting 4/1, that is the general time frame you will arrive.
Kirby
I started April 24th and made it to Katahdin with plenty of time to spare.
It was nice to be behind the crowds.....
AT-HITMAN2005
01-03-2008, 22:48
i started april 1st summited september 25th. took lots of zeros.
<snip>
Because of last minute complications dealing with family matters, I left the summit of Springer on April 15 Weary
I plan to start my first long section hike on that day of this year. Not having to make the entire trip in one hike, I think this will be a great time to start.
TWS
I haven't been able to come up with the time for a thru, but I was thinking that if I started a bit later, I wouldn't have to carry as much winter gear, though winter weather is a possibility in the Appalachians right through the end of May. Winter starts in the White Mountains (my stomping grounds) in mid August (mixed with spring, summer, and autumn) - be prepared there.
Start later lighter? ..... Lighter later?
Have a great hike. Hope to see you on the trail.
Oh, yeah, and if you decide it's not for you, you can tell your friends, "I said I was thruhiking the Appalachian Trail - well, APRIL FOOLS!!!";)
Powder River
01-04-2008, 01:49
Oh, yeah, and if you decide it's not for you, you can tell your friends, "I said I was thruhiking the Appalachian Trail - well, APRIL FOOLS!!!";)
That was EXACTLY what I was thinking! Or maybe because I will have a live blog I could concoct some brilliant April Fools joke for all the good readers at home.... hmmmmmm
Rain Man
01-04-2008, 14:17
I think early starts are a fairly recent phenomenon of oneupsmanship. If you'll read the two-volume "Hiking the Appalachian Trail," edited by James Hare, published by Rodale, I believe you'll see that most thru-hikers in the 50s, 60s, and 70s started in April or May and even later.
But it don't make no never mind ... HYOH!
Rain:sunMan
.
dessertrat
01-04-2008, 14:35
Even if it took you six months, you would summit Katahdin at the end of September. That sounds like perfect timing to me.
Blissful
01-04-2008, 14:38
We talked to hikers that had started April 1st while we were in PA. At Hawk Mtn shelter there were 30 plus hikers and a bunch of tents. No problem meeting people, for sure.
As you head north, the sea of humanity fleshes out. Esp after Harpers Ferry.
Have fun!
What Rain Man said. April 1 used to be a thoroughly acceptable and rather popular start date. ISTM that start dates have been moving forward (ie. earlier) over the last couple of decades or so.
Blissful
01-04-2008, 14:46
Yeah I was gonna start April 1st. Glad I didn't though as those who did got nailed by snow and wind last year down the trail (though I got it outside Erwin). The weather is totally unpredictable.
Go to Ron Haven's April fools party first, then hit springer like the second or third.
Lone Wolf
01-04-2008, 15:35
Go to Ron Haven's April fools party first, then hit springer like the second or third.
It's March 28-30 this year
I'm planning on starting 4/1 this year. See you out there!
It's March 28-30 this year
Well, then, the first is a perfect day to start.
Programbo
01-04-2008, 19:04
April 1st seems a fine time to start and not late at all...I seem to recall that back in the 70`s Mid-April was the standard starting time..Anyone have any stats?
I am planning an April 1 start, taking the approach trail! Its on a weekday this year so maybe not as many all at once! Hope to see you there! WhooHOO!!
April 1st seems a fine time to start and not late at all...I seem to recall that back in the 70`s Mid-April was the standard starting time..Anyone have any stats?
A brief perusal of Roland Mueser's book indicates that most of the successful thru hikers in the class of '89 started after April 1 of that year. It looks to me (very rough guess) as if about 20% started between mid-March and April 1.
Ah, here's the stats (P. 160): 15% March, 60% April, 25% May thru August.
Jack Tarlin
01-04-2008, 20:55
So maybe it was a late Spring that year which helped the late April starters.
Mr. Meuser's book is hardly the bible on these things.
So maybe it was a late Spring that year which helped the late April starters.
Mr. Meuser's book is hardly the bible on these things.
Do you have a better source for stats on start dates? Or handy AT stats, in general? Mueser's dated, but I'm not aware of an equivalent or similar survey done more recently. Love to hear of it.
Jack Tarlin
01-04-2008, 21:12
His book was compiled from figures collected.....and then averaged......over many years. His book came out, if memory serves, in '98 and was based on data collected from around 150 hikers. The data collected went back the better part of a decade before it was published.
In other words, the reader picking up this book today is looking at data and information that in some cases is close to 20 years old, and was compiled from folks who hiked in the late eighties or early nineties.
The Trail has changed a great deal in two decades. What was printed in 1998 may have been reasonably accurate then, or maybe not. But it's now 2008, and lots of things have changed, including hiker start dates, the vast majority of which are now well before mid or late April.
In many ways, and on many subjects, I don't think this book is that good a tool anymore.
His book was compiled from figures collected.....and then averaged......over many years.
No that's quite wrong, Jack. A quick perusal of the intro to the stats, and the stats themselves says otherwise. The questionaire was administered April 90 through April 91. The vast majority (I'm guessing 80-90%) of the 150 responders thru hiked in '89.
The Trail has changed a great deal in two decades. What was printed in 1998 may have been reasonably accurate then, or maybe not. But it's now 2008, and lots of things have changed, including hiker start dates, the vast majority of which are now well before mid or late April.
If you'd read the thread, you'd see that I agree with you, at least about the hiker start dates. :rolleyes:
As for the validity of the rest of it... I'd say Mueser's findings hold up very well with time -- technology notwithstanding. The chapter on water treatment holds up very well (and the conclusion might surprise you.) Again, I'd love to see a newer version of such a study (and done with the same care.)
Jack Tarlin
01-04-2008, 21:50
Um, Terrapin.....
If the stats were collected in '90 and '91, and involved people that hiked in '89.....then how does this conflict with my contention that by the time of publication his stats and questionaires were way out of date?
You just yourself admitted that his data is now almost 20 years old. His data was almost a decade old when it was first published!
In fact, his work has little practical application for most present day hikers.
And you use the phrase "technology notwithstanding." That's pretty funny, since I seem to remember him publishing a supposedly authoritative survey that stated that the most popular backpack on the A.T. was an extrenal Jansport.
Were maybe this was true in '89, but it isn't anymore.
And Terrapin, that was exactly my point.
No point arguing, Jack. It is what it is. What study is newer and better?
"Little practical application?" I disagree, strongly. The most significant and general points still hold. Why people hike... How fast, how far... Water treatment... Food, calories, weight... Footwear... Animals... Insects. He was dead-on, then and now.
Oh we know the gear's changed a lot, but the overall experience of a thru-hike (imo) doesn't vary that much. Hell, there's even a few lessons to be gleaned from the old Rodale/James Hare journals from the 1970s.
Jack, you've got a lot of miles on the AT... but I've got a lot of years.
Jack Tarlin
01-04-2008, 22:04
So you've got a lot of years.
Whoop de doo.
Some of the most foolish things said on Whiteblaze are posted by folks who've been around since Christ was a carpenter.
Having a lot of years isn't necessarily a recommendation, Terrapin.
Having a lot of years isn't necessarily a recommendation, Terrapin.
In terms of observing historical trends, it gives me a leg up, so to speak. :D
I've got photos and/or journals of most of the foolishness. How about you?
One more time I'll ask: do you know of a public study comparable to Mueser's and newer?
Jack Tarlin
01-04-2008, 22:15
Photos and journals of foolishness, at the end of the day, is still foolishness, so I'm kinda missing your point here.
No, I don't know of a survey as allegedly authoritative or one as out of date and potentially inaccurate as the late Mr. Meuser's.
Happy now?
Photos and journals of foolishness...
No none of that. We all know that hiking is dead serious stuff. :cool:
Yer right. I don't believe there are any photos of me dressed as a prostitute on a Damascus street corner. Or passed out drunk. :D ;) :) :p :eek: :cool:
Jack Tarlin
01-04-2008, 22:22
The well-known photo you seem to be talking about was taken in downtown Hot Springs, not Damascus, so once agin, as usual, you're mis-informed.
And dressing in drag doesn't necessarily mean one is clad as a lady of the evening, OK?
And it was for charity, anyway.
Has anyone told you lately, Terrapin, that you're a horse's ass?
Cuz the reminder seems overdue.
Has anyone told you lately, Terrapin, that you're a horse's ass?
And a pleasant good evening to you, too. Mister Tarlin. :rolleyes:
Jack Tarlin
01-04-2008, 22:25
Note to Terrapin:
Enough with assclownery, OK? You wanna just insult me, wait a few months and talk to my face.
This thread was about start dates and the wisdom of a 1 April start.
As a courtesy to the guy who started the htread, let's get back on topic.
This thread was about start dates and the wisdom of a 1 April start.
Which -- amazingly enough -- we agreed upon. D'oh. Mister Tarlin.
I've looked over the book in Borders before and it's an interesting study. Nice to see demographics broken down. Some of the information is timeless like what percentage of men cried on their thru-hike, etc.
However, most of the relevant data is expired. Equiptment has changed, as have trends, like starting dates. Pack weight is lower, people are hiking the trail quicker, starting earlier, and there are probably significantly more women thru-hiking than their were 19 years ago.
I'm sure dozens of thesis' and studies have been done in the last few years by different college/grad students and sociologists, however most of this information isn't easily accessible.
One however could do their own research real easily using trailjournals.com or some other source to get better up to date statistics
the_iceman
01-06-2008, 18:43
Lots of others in the shelters. Snow and 5 degrees in the first 3 days. Felt the need to "break out" of the crowd. Took it easy and finished with time to spare.
First, the original question. If my study of NOBO thru-hikers keeping a journal at trailjournals.com is representative, you will have LOTS of company the first week of April. About one out of eight hikers who complete a thru-hike these days leave in the first week of April. If we conservatively estimate that 1500 to 2000 hikers attempt a NOBO thru-hike each year that would mean that around 200 could be expected to leave the first week of April. Add in the last week of March and just a little under a quarter of thru-hike wanna-bes will leave in that two week time period. So, lots of company.
Terrapin asks if there is CURRENT research on when people start these days, among other questions. Yes, my article, "AT Hiking Rates, Section by Section," in our articles section, is based on the 2001 thru 2006 hiking classes (look at the article and post #28 of the accompanying thread for lots and lots of stats). To compare current data to Muesser's for the year 1989: these days the median hiker leaves in the middle of March. Between 55% and 60% of NOBO thru-hike completers leave sometime in March. Around 25% leave in April. Around 15% leave in February. A very small number leave before or after these three months.
I make no claims about the BEST time to start. I'm just describing when people ARE starting.
OK, if we are talking about start dates, Mueser's survey included the start/finish dates for 64 thru-hikers. The statistical mean duration was 174 days. 50% took between 161 and 184 days (23 to 26 weeks).
I suspect that the typical duration has not changed since Mueser's survey. So, do the math. If you start April 1, and hike at the average rate, you will probably finish late September.
Lone Wolf
01-07-2008, 09:41
If you start April 1, and hike at the average rate, you will probably finish late September.
perfect for fall colors
Photos and journals of foolishness, at the end of the day, is still foolishness, so I'm kinda missing your point here.
No, I don't know of a survey as allegedly authoritative or one as out of date and potentially inaccurate as the late Mr. Meuser's.
Happy now?
For someone who is so insistent on others answering your questions, you should practice giving straight answers to simple questions yourself. The book is what it is. A survey of hiker practices and opinions from a couple of decades ago.
Certainly the research today would produce different answers. But I know of no evidence that the author modified his data to satisfy a personal bias, do you? What do you mean by "allegedly" authoritative?
I've spent quite a bit of time on the trail during all four seasons especially in northern New England, but including six months starting in Georgia in '93. I began in the 60s and continued until I busted my achillies tendon a year ago Thanksgiving. Technically I began in the Whites in the early 40s, but I missed the decade of the 50s, what with Army responsibilities, college and earning a living complications. I read nothing in the book that struck me as wrong about past practices.
If you have read the book, tell us what you found to be wrong in terms of hiker practices in the era covered by the book.
Finally, what do you mean by "potentially inaccurate?" It's either accurate or inaccurate in terms of what it says about the era covered. There is no potential involved.
I await your answers.
As ever,
Weary
dessertrat
01-07-2008, 11:00
Why on earth would anyone find hiker start and finish times worth lying about? Even their own, let alone those of others. . .
Well put, Weary. Naturally, I'm fascinated at the way Mister Tarlin judges my own decades of meandering through the woods to be foolishness, without knowing me at all.
perfect for fall colors
Late September thru October and in to ealy November is a great time of year to hike in Maine.
Kirby
the_iceman
01-07-2008, 13:30
Read everything if you have time. Why not? Some of it is interesting and some of it will motivate you. If you do not like the book return it. No two thru-hikes are the same even if you were twins hiking together. Some people like to go with no background so everything is a "discovery". Others like to plan but plans are laid to waste in the first few weeks as a rule.
Planning does help buiild the excitment and going over multiple scenarios can help you adapt to changes mid-hike.
History shows just about any start date is possible. I would try to get to Katahdin before 10/15 but everything else is up to you. Just do it.
ofthearth
01-07-2008, 14:05
I think early starts are a fairly recent phenomenon of oneupsmanship. If you'll read the two-volume "Hiking the Appalachian Trail," edited by James Hare, published by Rodale, I believe you'll see that most thru-hikers in the 50s, 60s, and 70s started in April or May and even later.
But it don't make no never mind ... HYOH!
Rain:sunMan
.
His book was compiled from figures collected.....and then averaged......over many years. His book came out, if memory serves, in '98 and was based on data collected from around 150 hikers. The data collected went back the better part of a decade before it was published.
In other words, the reader picking up this book today is looking at data and information that in some cases is close to 20 years old, and was compiled from folks who hiked in the late eighties or early nineties.
The Trail has changed a great deal in two decades. What was printed in 1998 may have been reasonably accurate then, or maybe not. But it's now 2008, and lots of things have changed, including hiker start dates, the vast majority of which are now well before mid or late April.
In many ways, and on many subjects, I don't think this book is that good a tool anymore.
Not trying to stir the pot here (dated material) but the two-volume "Hiking the Appalachian Trail," edited by James Hare, published by Rodale is a great read and will give you a good "feel" for what different people encouintered at different times. Link below - amazon(looks like they've become a collectors item or something)
http://www.google.com/products?hl=en&q=Hiking+the+Appalachian+Trail+book+amazon+James+H are,+published+by+Rodale,&um=1&ie=UTF-8
Not trying to stir the pot here (dated material) but the two-volume "Hiking the Appalachian Trail," edited by James Hare, published by Rodale is a great read and will give you a good "feel" for what different people encouintered at different times. Link below - amazon(looks like they've become a collectors item or something)
http://www.google.com/products?hl=en&q=Hiking+the+Appalachian+Trail+book+amazon+James+H are,+published+by+Rodale,&um=1&ie=UTF-8
It's a classic. But two thousand pages!!! And of course, even more "dated" than Mueser... by a wide margin. (IIRC, it was published in 1975 or so.)
You can still find copies on eBay.. or at library used-book sales.
I marched north from Springer on a section on 21 April last year. There were still plenty of nobos around.
stranger
01-12-2008, 20:29
Unless much has changed in recent years I think a 1 April start will mean a very busy trail, full shelters, full hostels, etc...Atleast for the first couple hundred miles. I certainly don't think a lack of people will be a problem by any means, the problem will more likely be too many hikers especially if you are on a limited budget and can't flip for a hotel when hostels are full, or don't like tenting in the rain when shelters are full. Being around other hikers is great, a very much a part of long distance hiking, but it can also get a bit crazy sometimes, although those pockets seem to only last a few days or a week or so in my experiences.
Of course, as the AT becomes more popular more and more people are seeking to minimize the crowds, and over the years it seems like the common approach to this was to start earlier and earlier. So in that sense, maybe more people leave in mid March now then early April - I wouldn't know the answer to that. But it's always made more sense to me to start later to avoid the crowds, even leaving 1 May gives you over 5 months to thru-hike, and you can always flip if you need to. But I guess it all depends on what your style is.
Remember, a 6 month thru-hike means only averaging 12 miles per day including zero days, which works out to 84 miles per week. Even if you take a day off every single week (unlikely) you still only have to walk 14 miles per day (on six days) and can have about 25 days off.
Anyhow...hope to see you out there, I'll be starting around 8-10 April. Have a great hike.
Rain Man
01-12-2008, 23:52
Earl Shaffer started April 3rd (if my math is correct based on finishing in 124 days on August 5th)
Ed Garvey started April 4th.
Just FYI.
Rain:sunMan
.
Earl Shaffer started April 3rd (if my math is correct based on finishing in 124 days on August 5th)
Ed Garvey started April 4th.
Just FYI.
Rain:sunMan
.
And so did I. :sun :sun
Lone Wolf
01-13-2008, 04:55
Earl Shaffer started April 3rd (if my math is correct based on finishing in 124 days on August 5th)
Ed Garvey started April 4th.
Just FYI.
Rain:sunMan
.
the trail was a hell of a lot easier back in them days. although i never found it hard in modern times
Programbo
01-14-2008, 22:38
the trail was a hell of a lot easier back in them days. although i never found it hard in modern times
There was certainly a lot more road walking back then..But at the same time a lot of the trail would go straight up and down the sides of mountains instead of making all the switch-backs and gradual cross-cuts it does now....Did someone say that people are hiking it quicker now?..I thought I had recently read a statistic saying the opposite?
Who needs books when we have whiteblaze! You can find any number of opinions on any subject here. Just pick the ones you like.
Johnny Swank
01-15-2008, 14:43
I did a study with about 550 thru-hikers recently using a fair amount of Muesser's stuff to build on. I'll be posting the results on our blog as they are finalized at www.sourcetosea.net, as well sending the final results to the respondents that wanted them. Also planning a book, but that's a ways off.
I'm starting on Sunday, March 30th. (Originally planned for April 1st, but our friends have "jobs" and would like to see us off, and nobody can give us a ride to Amicalola on a Tuesday). Hope to see you out there! There will be lots of people around, I'm sure, but don't worrry about what everyone else is doing, do what works for you! I chose Late March/early April instead of earlier to lessen the chance of encountering snow.
Slingshot
01-15-2008, 21:19
I started April 1st in '06 and I will be this year too ^_^
I think it's a great day to start
DuctTape
01-16-2008, 02:42
Georgia shelters are like refugee camps in early April. It's hard to be alone even if you try.