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Minority Funk
04-20-2008, 21:50
Lets say a group of four young men (ages 18-20) in very good physical condition want to thru hike in a matter of 3 to 3.5 months, any one think this is fesable? I realize many people do a thru hike for the beauty and recommend not rushing it, but at this point in our lives it might be the only chance the four of get to do the AT together, and we want to do it in one sitting. I've done the math and do complete the trail we must average around 30 miles a day if we rest one day a week and have about 10 extra days off for various needs. Like i said before, we are in very good physical condition and 30 miles a day with inclines is possible for us, but we are uncertain if it is possible on the AT due to terrain. Any input would be greatly appreciated. thanks!

Lone Wolf
04-20-2008, 21:54
go for it. totally doable.

KirkMcquest
04-20-2008, 21:57
I've met plenty of young dudes who claim to be doing huge numbers of miles per day, and I believe them. One group seemed to be doing well over thirty per day ( south of Mass.). Maybe they get slowed down in NH.

warraghiyagey
04-20-2008, 21:57
Totally possible. The stats show it is unlikely that the entire group will finish. But the reality is that groups like yours have and you should definitely go for it.

Appalachian Tater
04-20-2008, 22:15
http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php?p=556823

That pretty much tells you what you need to know.

Warraghiyagey makes a good point.

If each hiker has an above-average 1/3 chance of finishing, the odds of all four finishing would be 1/3x3x3x3 = 1/81 or 1.23%. The odds of three finishing would be significantly higher, well over 3%.

Minority Funk
04-20-2008, 22:26
thank you for all of your relpies and so quickly. because of what many of you have pointed out and what the stats say, we each will be packing enough to finish the hike alone if need be

dessertrat
04-20-2008, 23:24
Earl Shaffer's first thru hike was in something like 140 days, and his second took him 99 days. We have much better gear and maps and resupply now. So yes, it's totally doable if someone has the willpower to make miles every day.

fiddlehead
04-21-2008, 03:08
He travels fastest who travels alone.

I think having 4 people involved together will slow things down considerably.
You may think you can easily do another 5 one day but the slower or hurt guy will say: "No way, we did our miles already today, i'm not moving another inch"
These kind of things could mean that none of you finish it. Just something for you to think about.
Like Grandma Gatewood said: "It's more head than heel"

earlyriser26
04-21-2008, 08:06
Go for it. So what if you don't make it? I missed my shot in 1975, now it will be 2012 before I can attempt it. Don't wait 40 years!!!!

oops56
04-21-2008, 08:32
Yep do it now in 40 years there be no trail we will be in a ice age

warren doyle
04-21-2008, 09:02
Lets say a group of four young men (ages 18-20) in very good physical condition want to thru hike in a matter of 3 to 3.5 months, any one think this is fesable? I realize many people do a thru hike for the beauty and recommend not rushing it, but at this point in our lives it might be the only chance the four of get to do the AT together, and we want to do it in one sitting. I've done the math and do complete the trail we must average around 30 miles a day if we rest one day a week and have about 10 extra days off for various needs. Like i said before, we are in very good physical condition and 30 miles a day with inclines is possible for us, but we are uncertain if it is possible on the AT due to terrain. Any input would be greatly appreciated. thanks!

In my opinion, your present plan is not realistic if you expect all four of you to start and finish at the same time. The history of long-distance thru-hiking on the AT supports this.

3.5 months equals 117 (approx.)days which equals 16.5 weeks (approx.).
That's 26.5 rest days according to your plan and 90.5 days of walking at 24 mpd.
This average mileage would be very difficult for four hikers together.
I suggest you cut your rest days by at least half to increase the chances of you reaching your stated goal.

Tin Man
04-21-2008, 09:39
First you say you want to do this together and this is your only chance. Then you say you will pack so you can be independent in case one or more drops out. The former sounds like you want to have fun with your friends. The latter sounds like you want to race to the finish. Perhaps you may want to discuss this as a group and decide what is more important: a long distance hike together -or- completion of a trail with purely artificial start and stop points.

Perhaps you want to consider staying together and doing however much of the trail as you can. Certainly plan A can be a thru attempt, but what if it becomes clear early on that perhaps that is not going to happen for one or more of you? Consider how you will feel if you leave someone behind. Is finishing the AT more important than staying together? How will you feel if you leave someone behind and then you don't finish? Why not consider plan B with the attitude that it is not about the destination, it's about the journey and spending a once in a life-time opportunity with your friends rather than pursuing a race to the end? These are only a few questions you may want to consider before finalizing your plan. A final thought - the AT will always be there to finish; what about your friendships in this point in time?

clured
04-21-2008, 09:49
Won't work as a group. Easy as an individual.

Alligator
04-21-2008, 10:20
http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php?p=556823

That pretty much tells you what you need to know.

Warraghiyagey makes a good point.

If each hiker has an above-average 1/3 chance of finishing, the odds of all four finishing would be 1/3x3x3x3 = 1/81 or 1.23%. The odds of three finishing would be significantly higher, well over 3%.That doesn't necessarily work that way Tater. Your probability is based on an independent hiker's success rate and doesn't necessarily reflect a group's success. You multiply probabilities like that when the trials are independent, like flipping a coin four times.

Wags
04-21-2008, 10:23
Go for it. So what if you don't make it?

best advise on this page imo

Minority Funk
04-21-2008, 10:39
you are right, if we dont make it, it isnt the end of the world. while our goal is to finish, our ultimatum is to have fun with our friends. and for tater, 95% of stats are made up

Gray Blazer
04-21-2008, 10:41
Yep do it now in 40 years there be no trail we will be in a ice age
Dam global warming. Do it now!

Wags
04-21-2008, 10:44
seriously bro go for it! the worst that will happen is you guys walk into a town, party it up, and take a bus home. no regrets is the only way to live

warren doyle
04-21-2008, 10:49
If your goal is to have 'fun with your friends', then doing the trail in 3.5 months together is a very unrealistic goal. These two stated goals are incompatible so I hope you decide between yourselves which goal is going to be the most important.

Wags
04-21-2008, 11:04
the statistical majority is that most hikers, whether solo or w/ others, don't make it the whole way. so with that in mind, if you all leave seperately you still don't have very good odds of making it. so just go as a group and have fun, if you make it you make it

Grumpy5280
04-21-2008, 11:09
Starting at Springer with the goal of an uninterrupted finish-line at Katahdin is only for uncreative and dogmatic purists.

The trail is there for recreation...use it in a way that fits your group members' own goals. You don't have to

For instance, a creative approach could be to to do four "chunks" of the trail, one selected by each member. You could skip some of the less desirable (to you) parts of the trail, and see the parts you really want to.

If I knew this 3 month time period might be "it" for me and my friends, then for I'd rather do GA to Harper's Ferry then skip Penn and NY and be sure to do The Whites of New Hampshire and Maine without feeling like I had to rush, and possibly end up with a hike-ending injury (like seems to happen to many).

Or you might want to do 1000 miles on the At and 1000 miles on the PCT or CDT.

Hike Your Own Hike, and don't be limited by lack of imagination!

Bare Bear
04-21-2008, 15:13
TinMan had it. Go out and start as a group and see where the dynamic take you. You may find that it becomes less important to finish or to finish as a group. You may find that being there is much more important that 'finishing'.
Do what works for you. HYOH.

Minority Funk
04-21-2008, 19:02
i appreciate what everyone is saying. And while many people are saying its never going to work, it just makes me more determined to do so. I may just sound like a rookie talking to most of you, but I think most of us can agree that it is possible, wether or not it is plausible is a different story. We are a group of people that sets high goals in order to achieve them, and strive off of eachothers energy and drive. Wether or not we finish will not determine how much fun we have, but we have to try now or we never will. thank you all for your words of wisdom

Blissful
04-21-2008, 19:33
i appreciate what everyone is saying. And while many people are saying its never going to work, it just makes me more determined to do so. I may just sound like a rookie talking to most of you, but I think most of us can agree that it is possible, wether or not it is plausible is a different story. We are a group of people that sets high goals in order to achieve them, and strive off of eachothers energy and drive. Wether or not we finish will not determine how much fun we have, but we have to try now or we never will. thank you all for your words of wisdom


Well it kind of looks like you have made up your mind before the thread began...


So...Best now (to use a word of wisdom from someone who has been there and who hiked the whole trail with a 17 year old) is to figure out how to cut your pack weight to nothing and make sure your knees make it and you have the attitude to make it all the way (with or without the friends). No one is immune to injury both physically and mentally in this game.

And check Kirby's journal and posts for another perspective on a teen out there in the trenches right now.

Minority Funk
04-21-2008, 19:49
Well it kind of looks like you have made up your mind before the thread began...


So...Best now (to use a word of wisdom from someone who has been there and who hiked the whole trail with a 17 year old) is to figure out how to cut your pack weight to nothing and make sure your knees make it and you have the attitude to make it all the way (with or without the friends). No one is immune to injury both physically and mentally in this game.

And check Kirby's journal and posts for another perspective on a teen out there in the trenches right now.

you are probably right, our minds were mostly made before beginning this but I also thought it would be a good idea to get experienced hikers opinions. also, the way i have phrased things up until now make me appear somewhat ignorant to the vast difficulities that the AT can provide. I guess our goal really is to push ourselves and see where our friendship can take us, be it Mt Kadahdin or not.

and with that being said, we will keep in mind what you said, although we are teenagers and would like to believe we are invincible, we simply are not.

notorius tic
04-21-2008, 19:58
Just get out there an feel your way.. You will soon relize that there is way more to the trail than you think like a zero on Max Patch just to catch a LUNAR or Metor shower.. I can claim a heck off time just waighting for the next BIG SHOW.. Enjoy an have fun..

Tin Man
04-21-2008, 20:57
i appreciate what everyone is saying. And while many people are saying its never going to work, it just makes me more determined to do so. I may just sound like a rookie talking to most of you, but I think most of us can agree that it is possible, wether or not it is plausible is a different story. We are a group of people that sets high goals in order to achieve them, and strive off of eachothers energy and drive. Wether or not we finish will not determine how much fun we have, but we have to try now or we never will. thank you all for your words of wisdom

Well then, go forth and conquer the trail if ye's must. And don't let us tell you that it will be hard. Seems you know that already, so just do it.

FYI - there were two brothers from CT who did the AT in 99 days a few years ago. I believe the story was similar to yours - young and determined to play off each other's energy and drive.

Wags
04-21-2008, 23:35
although we are teenagers and would like to believe we are invincible, we simply are not.

conversely you will probably not be in any better shape physically (as far as quickly rebounding from aches and injuries). f'ing go for it man! i wish i tried it back in my late teens, instead of doing lots of partying

Paul Bunyan
04-21-2008, 23:52
Hey, sounds great that you guy's are getting out there and doing it! Just am a little worried about your time problem. 24 miles a day seems a little bit pushy to me, especially just starting off. But hey, it's HYOH. Just as a 2 little specks of advice (yea, i'm oly 17 but i've done the trail), keep your weight low. Sharing gear is definately the best way to do that. Also, don't rush. You'll probably some across other hikers, and may want to spend an extra day just hanging out. Do it. The worst thing you can do is just push push push, then get too the end, and realize you wish you could hae spent those few extra days. Just from personal experience. But hey, glad to see you guys getting out there, and hope all goes great.

Trillium
04-21-2008, 23:53
Here's a link to a Trail Journal of 3 young guys, Ant, Slick Shoes & Whateva, who thru-hiked last year in approx 4 months. They started 2/11/07 and finished 6/16/07. I believe they were in the spring of their sophomore year in college.

http://www.trailjournals.com/entry.cfm?trailname=5131

Have a GREAT time!

Appalachian Tater
04-22-2008, 00:09
That doesn't necessarily work that way Tater. Your probability is based on an independent hiker's success rate and doesn't necessarily reflect a group's success. You multiply probabilities like that when the trials are independent, like flipping a coin four times.Please explain to me the proper calculation. I would like to know how to do it correctly.

Wags
04-22-2008, 00:12
my math may be off b/c it's late at night, but i think the correct formula is:

don't be a negative nancy + they have as good a chance of finishing as everyone else who leaves springer x they can share their fun after the hike is over, regardless of how far they made it, as opposed to just mulling it over in one's mind or typing about it on the internets = they should go

JAK
04-22-2008, 08:28
Depends on what it means to the group, and what the group means to the individuals.
The real enemy is angst. What if something better comes along?

JAK
04-22-2008, 08:32
somewhere along the Appalachian Trail...

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/f/f4/The_Scream.jpg

Marta
04-22-2008, 12:34
This fellow took four months to hike the trail, but at least 30 days of that time were zero days.

http://trailjournals.com/entry.cfm?id=125267

He hiked most of it with a couple of other really fast hikers. They each carried their own, very lightweight, gear, and separated when they felt like it, then got back together when they wanted to.

Good luck to you guys!

dloome
04-22-2008, 21:59
I would guess that all of you are more than physically capable of thru hiking in 3 months, but few or none of you are mentally motivated enough to push your bodies that hard. And I seriously doubt any of you will finish together.
Not being cynical, just realistic, based on what I've seen.

That being said, GO FOR IT! What do you have to lose? I'd never backpacked before I thru hiked the AT and did it in 3.5 months without rushing at all, and did the PCT (2,663 miles) in 90 days flat the next year. Your body can do pretty much anything at our age, but know that you have to mentally hike these miles as well. Hiking on a schedule can require a great deal more motivation than a more relaxed pace.

jersey joe
04-23-2008, 09:47
I hiked the trail in 3 1/2 months and you guys can certainly do what you are setting out to do...
24miles per day could be tough. My suggestion would be to not plan any zero days and instead do a bunch of lower milage(nero) days along the way, like 5 miles into or out of town. Do this as the situation presents itself while you are out there. This will help you keep your average miles per day up and help you make it to Katahdin!!!

KirkMcquest
04-23-2008, 10:31
It is definitely possible. Will you do it? Nobody knows, so all these opinions are worthless speculation.

jersey joe
04-23-2008, 11:37
It is definitely possible. Will you do it? Nobody knows, so all these opinions are worthless speculation.
Not worthless if the advice helps to increase their chances of completing their goal.

derek
04-23-2008, 13:28
i have 3 friends that had this same goal. 2 ended up completing the trail in that time frame. however you have to be willing to make sacrifices to keep up with the mileage. while it's cool to have friends hiking with you, it can't be all about having fun. if one starts to fall behind you don't have time to wait for him every day. just go into it realizing that i guess. odds are all of you won't make it the whole way but either part of your group could or you could all go for as far as you get together and still have a great time. you cant tell whats going to happen, but go for it. it will be an experience nonetheless.

earlyriser26
04-23-2008, 14:23
Knowing that your group is unlikely to make it doesn't prevent you from trying. Your goal is very tough, to average 24 mile days you must do many 30+ mile days, but it can be done. Your real question will be what happens if some of the group decide these 30 mile days, many in the rain, many in pain, and a few 95 - 100 degree days are no longer their cup of tea. Plan for it. At some point your goal will be put to the test. How you react will be key. My best advice is to HAVE FUN. 30 mile days can be fun as tests often are, but if the "FUN" ends change your plan. Be flexible. Good Luck