how busy is the trail pre march?

[NEMESIS]

hey, i am thinking about a feb 15 start, but dont want to miss out on hanging out with other hikers. how big is the crowd at that time?

[celt]

It used to be very few but it seems like more people are choosing Februrary to start. Its still a very small percentage.

I did a quick count of www.trailjournals.com 2008 journalists. Of 363 people who openened journal accounts and announced starting dates for northbound hikes in 2008 only 28 were in February, that is less than 8% of the total. Most were in March and April, some in May and I believe three in January. Not everyone who journals on Trailjournals actually starts.

[smaaax]

I started Feb 16 this year. No crowds and had loads of shelter space. There are definitely other hikers out there, just fewer than a couple weeks later. I saw people every day, though one stretch I was alone in shelters for 7 nights.

If I did the trail again, I would do the same thing. Just me though. You will have some cold nights and snow, but that can come in April too. Just a few more starting early but no big deal.

[sticks&stones]

50 to 70 hikers will have came off springer by feb 15. Average miles, average downdays, will result in it being unlikely that you will see very many people, at least nothing like the numbers coming off springer 2 weeks after you, which I've counted 100 a day if march 1st falls on a weekend, which it does. the good part about starting a little early is there's less trash along the trail

[Manach]

the good part about starting a little early is there's less trash along the trail

Are you referring to gear people dump near the beginning as they realize their packs are too heavy, or actual garbage?

[Serial 07]

feb 15 is a little early to start...plus you'll miss the fall colors of maine which add a touch of splendor to your trip that won't be forgotten...

[bigboots]

From the looks of the 2009 registry you will have plenty of company nomatter which month you start(Feb or March). I will be with the masses starting the first week of March but mostly due to work commitments. If you start early and theres noone around you can always hang out at a shelter for a day or two and hike slow to let more people catch up with you. As mentioned above, the big group is not far behind. Just be aware that the more people the less shelter space if you are planing on using them.

Bigboots

[Zzzzdyd]

I have hiked between Springer and Dick Creek Gap twice in Mid-Feb, and

once the first week of Feb, and twice in Mid-March.

If you want more people wait until March. Trail was sloppy though.

I hear April has even more people ?

Mid Feb. Much COLDER, but a few people.

First week of Feb. one other hiker and a beautiful FOX in full winter coat

walked along side me as it snowed.

Stop at shelters as you will usually find someone there and lots of mice and

maybe a bear or two !

If I can get this shoulder rehabbed in time I will shoot for the first week of

Feb.. Hike quite and hope I see more wildlife !

[trailfoot]

A Feb. start date is great. I started March 1st this year and caught up to a lot of Feb. starters. One word of caution. You will see more show with a Feb start.

For some advice. If you don't want it don't read ahead.
Use hiking tennis shoes such as Montrail. Forget the boots.
Practice in the mountains b4 leaving if possible. As much as possible!!!
Do some aerobic activity
Osprey Atmos back packs are the bomb
Get out of GA as fast as possible. Reason? I think people go too slow early on. Push yourself.

Hope this was helpful

[little_daddy979]

I'm planning on Feb 15 too, so at least one other person. What degree sleeping bag are you taking? I'm thinking a 20* bag with synthetic insulated clothes, a bivy, and a reflective VB bag and pray thats enough up in the smokies.

[Pound Hound]

Garage Man and I are also leaving Feb 15- we'd rather be cold than hot, so we figured we'd start early and get moving north before a southern summer- not that we will hurry. We're putting in some Yak Trakkers so that we are less likely to slip on frozen rocks and we have 15 degree bags. Based on journals we have read, the weather will be unpredictable in the mountains no matter when we leave at least until we are through the Smokeys. Remember, it's not about the number of people- it's about meeting people you enjoy seeing.

[corialice81]

I'm also heading out in Feb. I originally planned on feb. 9th but I'm thinking of maybe pushing it back just a few weeks...maybe...def. leaving in feb though.

[tucker0104]

I am thinking sometime soon after valentine's day.

[smaaax]

For what its worth, I started out with a 20* bag on Feb 16 (North Face Cat's Meow), and ditched it at Neels Gap bacause I didn't think it would be warm enough based on my nights so far. Got a 10 and it worked great. Also had a silk liner.

I would have only used Yak Trax 2 days if I had them along. Yeah, there are icy stretches on occasion, but except for the smokies it is brief patches. I wouldn't have bothered putting them on for 10' stretches of trail.

[The Solemates]

ya'll are killing me with springer fever. i may not be able to wait the 3 weeks til my next trip.

[rdsoxfan]

I too am going to start in Feb. I want to avoid the crowds and not be rushed or forced to do 16 to 20 mile days later on if I don't want to. I want to enjoy the trip take it all in. Enjoy the people I encounter and maybe give back a few days labor to the trail. Great information on the weather to expect and the bags needed for this time of year though. I think I'll go with a zero degree rated bag and a liner. I definitely am starting to get the fever. I'm itching Fo' Sho.

Rem Dawg

[Jack Tarlin]

This has been discussed extensively elsewhere.

Unless you need to finish the Trail early (like by mid-August for college, etc.), in most cases, you'd probably do better to wait a few weeks to start your hike.

A February start, especially an early one, means a virtual guarantee that you'll run into extended periods of bad weather, meaning a lot of days when you'll make a late start on your hiking day; more days when you'll stop early; days when you'll come to a shelter at 2 or 3 in the afternoon and stop for the day, instead of doing another five or six miles; days when you'll take town time or down time that you hadn't previosuly planned on; days when you'll take extra town time or days off because of weather, etc. I promise you, if you wake up in a motel in Hiawassee or Franklin on Valentine's Day, and it's snowing out, you won't be going anywhere.

In short, you won't "gain" that much time on folks who start a week or so later as you'll have an abbreviated pace; the "crowd" that's a few weeks behind you that you're trying to stay ahead of will catch up with you thanks to your slower pace; you'll be fighting the weather a lot; and you'll be spending a ton of time off the Trail, and will in all likelihood spend hundreds of extras dollars that you might need later.

The single most compelling reason for not starting too early: A lot of folks who start early (like February) get discouraged by extended periods of bad weather.

And a great many of them quit. In many cases, these are folks who, in all likelihood, would have had an easier time of it by waiting a week or two to begin; they'll have an easier and happier beginning to their trip; they'll probably have better weather and hiking conditions; they'll have fewer problems during that critical first few weeks of their hike; and they're less likely to get discouraged early and quit.

Here it is very simply: There aren't that many benefits to an early start to a Northbound thru-hike, and there's one significant reason NOT to start too early:

The earlier you start, the greater the chance of your quitting early.

[The Solemates]

we started the 1st of February. Would not have done it any other way.

Next time we'll start either 1 Feb or before, or 1 may or after.

[A-Train]

My personal opinion about start times is that there is no hard and fast rules. Every year seems to bring different weather patterns and the southern Appalachians have wacky weather. It could be snowstorming in the mountains and then 65 and sunny the next day.

Jack is correct, the earlier you start, the more likely you'll be to deal with cold and nasty weather.


But, do not let this discourage you, as long as you are prepared.
I used to use this as an example. When I started my hike (March 1 2003) this was still considered pretty early. I hit snow twice-once at the end of March/begining of April near Erwin, once a week later near Damascus, 2nd week of April.

The folks who started 3-4 weeks behind experienced these storms but actually missed out on the first couple weeks in March which provided mostly great hiking weather with warm days and little to no precipitation.

Point is you can't count on the weather to turn on any particular day. It can snow down south in late May. You just don;t know. Will the weather generally be better in April than February? Yep, but you shouldn't let that stop you IF you're ready to go and prepared in February.

[nitewalker]

if your not in a hurry then feb is a great time to hike if you have the right attitude and gear. i have been section hiking the southern parts of the AT during feb over the last 4 or 5 yrs and its been great. the weather is really unpredictable at that time but keep an eye on the forcast when in town and adjust your plans accordingly. rainy cold days at that time of year may keep you off the trail but you will get back on.. the crowds are definitly less at that time of year but im sure you will run into your share of hikers whether its day hikers, sec hikers or some thru's...i will be on a trail somewhere during feb just not sure where.....

peace

[smaaax]

I have to disagree with some of the posts above. I started Feb 16 and didn't have to bail at all. Its the luck of the draw, I heard there were some big storms behind me. I had a great time without hoards of hikers, just a few to keep me company.

I did see some hikers drop out early, but it was mainly the usual issues (knees, not for them), and not necessarily related to the weather.

I did have winter camping experience when I left, and I had the right gear for the weather. The coldest night I encountered was around 15 degrees and 4" of snow. It definitely could have been worse, but if you are prepared and don't mind the cold you are in for a great time.

I didn't start seeing leaves at the elevations of the trail until after SNP. When there aren't leaves, you can get the views even if there aren't lookouts.