View Full Version : Late February start vs. early March start
ATX-Hiker
12-14-2008, 13:12
I have planned on starting my NOBO hike on 02/26/09, but I have been starting to wonder about the cold weather. I was wondering if starting a few days to a week or so later, say march 1st or so would be any better weather wise to start? I live in TX and when it hits the 30's at night here, that's cold for most of us. I've read the post and nobody can predict the future, but leaving 02/26, what's the worst I should expect?
Hiking in snow everyday? till... mid-march, end of march?
Temps at night? 15* and below every night?
Icy/slippery trails to hike on?
Lone Wolf
12-14-2008, 13:16
i would just stick to your original plan. a couple weeks later won't make much difference
papa john
12-14-2008, 13:26
You can never predict what you'll get. In 2000, I was in the snow at Whitley Gap Shelter in early April.
joshua5878
12-14-2008, 14:12
I have planned on starting my NOBO hike on 02/26/09, but I have been starting to wonder about the cold weather. I was wondering if starting a few days to a week or so later, say march 1st or so would be any better weather wise to start? I live in TX and when it hits the 30's at night here, that's cold for most of us. I've read the post and nobody can predict the future, but leaving 02/26, what's the worst I should expect?
Hiking in snow everyday? till... mid-march, end of march?
Temps at night? 15* and below every night?
Icy/slippery trails to hike on?
I paid for a report published by a company that predicts precipitation probabilities by city. This company provides this information for people that are planning outdoor weddings and other activities. I ran the report for Feb and March of 2009. If these reports are accurate, (they claim 85%) late Feb and early March 2009 the probability of precipitation (rain or snow) is very high for Hiawassee GA.
That early in the year it probably wont matter much. I have seen snow in the Smokies on May 8th at Icewater Springs in 08 and this year we had snow just north of Hiawassee about April 15th so its going to be cold no matter what.
What will be different is the ammount of people. One week will leave you closer to the crowd where shelter and hostel space gets short in nasty weather.
ATX-hiker do what you feel is right, its your hike, if you think that march would be better than do it. If you feel you cant wait, than feburary is the time. Either way you are going to get cold and probably hike in the snow. As long as you are prepared than you will be o.k. Just dont do anything stupid.
In general the later you leave the better the weather will be.
Some people leave early because they have to complete their hike for one reason or another by a certain date, like they have to go back to school or something like that.
Do you have any compelling reason why you have to start in the middle of winter?
If you schedule permits I would leave later like the end of march or early April. The later you leave the better the weather will be and the less your hike will cost.
Panzer
ATX-Hiker
12-14-2008, 16:08
In general the later you leave the better the weather will be.
Some people leave early because they have to complete their hike for one reason or another by a certain date, like they have to go back to school or something like that.
Do you have any compelling reason why you have to start in the middle of winter?
If you schedule permits I would leave later like the end of march or early April. The later you leave the better the weather will be and the less your hike will cost.
Panzer
Need to be back for school in the fall.
Need to be back for school in the fall.
start as early as possible then, you don't want to be rushed
Tennessee Viking
12-14-2008, 16:27
It will still be quite cool on either schedule. But the later you start, the more crowded it will be.
Need to be back for school in the fall.
Yea, that's a good reason.
Just be certain that you have enough warm gear. Check this site for average temps:
http://www.appalachiantrail.org/site/c.jkLXJ8MQKtH/b.1025291/k.72A0/Average_Temperatures.htm
Panzer
ChinMusic
12-14-2008, 16:59
start as early as possible then, you don't want to be rushed
You can't predict Feb/Mar weather with any specificity form a Dec vantage point. Late Feb COULD be better than early March....never know.
Start early and have a back-up plan to pull off the trail (wait it out) if the weather becomes unacceptable to you. It would really suck to move your plans forward only to find the week(s) you passed up were perfect.
daddytwosticks
12-14-2008, 17:12
The southern AT in late Feb.- early March...cold and wet. You can usually bet on it.
It would really suck to move your plans forward only to find the week(s) you passed up were perfect.
Read that again.
BookBurner
12-14-2008, 20:02
A week or two isn't going to make any reliable difference. March in the southern mountains is highly variable. You are about as likely to get snow on 3/1 as 4/1, and for that matter, hot days on 3/1 as 4/1. One other thing, snow is possible but not near as likely as you might expect. You can get a few inches every now and then, but certainly the white stuff is the exception rather than the rule. Cold rain -- now count on that! Good luck.
Blissful
12-14-2008, 20:08
Weather is so unpredictable. Go with what you have. I only started a week later than your plan and ended up with 70s in mid March in the Smokies and snow in early April.
modiyooch
12-14-2008, 20:10
it's the mountains. there are NO guarantees. you will never catch me out there before march 15. I'm a wuss. I think some hikers got stranded a couple of years ago in the Smokies in a bad snow storm in April. But, there are people out there that do it. It's their preference. There's a poster that says they are starting at the end of this month.
Happy Feet
12-14-2008, 20:25
In '97 we left the first of April and had tons of cold Spring rain.
In '01 we left Feb. 22 and of course it was cold, and we had a blizzard the first day of Spring in upper East TN, but our early start was so much better.
It's easier to stay warm in snow than it is in a cold rain. We also made it to the Mid-Atlantic states before many of the springs dried up, and beat the heat in Virginia and points north. We were also ahead of the "pack", although we still had plenty of company.
We'll leave at least that early next time! Don't worry about the weather--just be properly outfitted. Happy trails.
modiyooch
12-14-2008, 20:30
--just be properly outfitted. Happy trails.that's the key.
The Solemates
12-15-2008, 11:05
we needed to be back in school in the fall as well. we left 1 feb. we had probably 75 of our 149 nights on the trail below freezing.
ofthearth
12-15-2008, 11:44
threads vaguely related to winter starts
First out the gate
http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php?t=42940
http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/wb_style/misc/navbits_finallink_ltr.gif (http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php?t=40643) Why a slow thru is better than a fast thru.
http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php?t=40643
Jack Tarlin
12-15-2008, 16:46
Interesting comments so far.
People are right when they say there's no sure predictions......sometimes it's great in late February and really horrible in mid-March. Sometimes it's the opposite. You never really know what each year will bring.
But all things considered, one has a much greater chance of running into protracted periods of bad weather if one starts earlier in the season, so in most years, one will encounter better weather if one waits til after February to start.
Another thing to consider is that the more bad weather you encounter, the more this will likely affect your progress:
*When the weather is bad, you'll have shorter hiking days, and will make
shorter daily mileage
*You'll likely break camp late, and will take longer breaks at shelters you
encounter
*When the weather's bad, you'll come to a shelter and may well stop for the
day, rather than continue til suppertime as you would on a good day, as
nobody likes to hike in the cold and wet and you won't want to risk
that the farther shelter may well be full when you get there at nightfall.
*In bad weather, you'll spend more time in hostels and towns. You'll go into
towns you hadn't planned on stopping in; you'll stay at places you hadn't
planned on visiting.
*If you wake up in a town and the weather is horrible (whether or not this
was a "planned" stop) you may well elect to spend an entire extra day off,
especially if you become part of a group of friends. (Group dynamics means
if one or two of your friends wants to take a day off, you will,too). This
extra town time burn days and money both.
In short, the earlier you start, the greater the chance that you'll kill time with
shortened or abbreviated hiking days; time off from hiking; extra or unplanned time off, etc. Thgis will cost time and money. A lot of folks who start early (like February) end up getting "caught" by folks who started many days, if not weeks later, so in the end, they've gained nothing, and spend most of their early days cold, wet, and miserable.
It is certainly possible to start early and have a woonderful trip. It is also possible to start early, and, as someone else just pointed out, you may spend 50% of your trip hiking in, or dealing with, cold, grey, wet, miserable weather.
If you have the option, start a week or two later. You'll likely have better weather; will have better scenery; will make better miles; will save several hundred dollars; and will have a much better time. Assuming that "getting back to school" doesn't mean finishing by mid-August, I'd simply start a week or two later than you've planned. A Northbounder is gonna encounter lousy
weather no matter when they start, but why insure you'll get any extra?
You might want to look at the TJ of someone who started at a similar time, for similar reasons:
http://www.trailjournals.com/entry.cfm?id=167927
Feb. 26th, the day he started, had excellent weather.
Slo-go'en
12-15-2008, 17:14
I agree with Jack on this one. An early start does not always mean an early finish. One thing Jack forgot to mension is the shorter days also affects how far you can go in a day and even then you'll likely do some of it by headlamp and cook in the dark.
It's likely that starting late March or even April 1st with lighter pack, better weather and more daylight will have you finishing within a week or two of when you would have if you had left a month earlier.
By now, you have probably got the idea. February is normally wretched. March ranges from sunburn hot to snowy. There is usually an Easter Surprise in April with near zero cold and often snow. The unpredictable weather continues through May with what we call winter in Central Texas. Start when you want to, prepare for near zero weather and change to a summer bag around June 1.
TrippinBTM
12-18-2008, 23:08
I was in the Smokey Mountains in mid April and there was still snow (but then, that's your higher elevations). Sorry, my southern friend, but there's going to be some cold times for you. But as the other posts said; knowing this, you can prepare and dress for it. It won't be too bad.
I have planned on starting my NOBO hike on 02/26/09, but I have been starting to wonder about the cold weather. I was wondering if starting a few days to a week or so later, say march 1st or so would be any better weather wise to start? I live in TX and when it hits the 30's at night here, that's cold for most of us. I've read the post and nobody can predict the future, but leaving 02/26, what's the worst I should expect?
Hiking in snow everyday? till... mid-march, end of march?
Temps at night? 15* and below every night?
Icy/slippery trails to hike on?
In 1993 helicopters were taking hikers off the trail after three feet of snow fell in Georgia and North Carolina in March.
Weary
Rockhound
12-18-2008, 23:19
I have planned on starting my NOBO hike on 02/26/09, but I have been starting to wonder about the cold weather. I was wondering if starting a few days to a week or so later, say march 1st or so would be any better weather wise to start? I live in TX and when it hits the 30's at night here, that's cold for most of us. I've read the post and nobody can predict the future, but leaving 02/26, what's the worst I should expect?
Hiking in snow everyday? till... mid-march, end of march?
Temps at night? 15* and below every night?
Icy/slippery trails to hike on?
postponing a week or so wont make any difference. You're going to have some cold days and nights at the beginning of your hike. Just be prepared. By the time you reach Erwin you can probably ship your cold weather gear to Glencliff as you'll need it again as you enter the White Mountains.
Hikerhead
12-18-2008, 23:26
postponing a week or so wont make any difference. You're going to have some cold days and nights at the beginning of your hike. Just be prepared. By the time you reach Erwin you can probably ship your cold weather gear to Glencliff as you'll need it again as you enter the White Mountains.
I'd wait till I got to Pearisburg or Roanoke before shipping my winter gear up north. It can still get quite cold in the mtns in SW Va in early April.
ATX-Hiker
12-19-2008, 12:06
Thanks for all the input everybody. I'm going to stick to my plan and just prepare for bad weather, and plan on some extra zero days if the weather gets too bad. Any advice on planning "Plan B's" for getting off the trail during the start, if bad weather hits?
Jim Adams
12-19-2008, 12:27
Thanks for all the input everybody. I'm going to stick to my plan and just prepare for bad weather, and plan on some extra zero days if the weather gets too bad. Any advice on planning "Plan B's" for getting off the trail during the start, if bad weather hits?
If you need to save money then stay at the closest shelter to town that you can find. Shelters are breezy, cold and dirty but usually they are DRY. Walk to town and buy heavy, cheap non-backpacking food just to keep you amused and somewhat satisfied while you wait out the weather AT THE SHELTER. You may spend alittle unplanned money on the food but it will make the wait much more tolerable. If the weather is prolonged, say up to a week, then try to get into town, get a shower, restuarant food every 3rd day and then back to the shelter just to keep your spirits up alittle. If you can afford to stay, then stay at the cheapest place that you can find overnight and then head back to the shelter the next morning.
This plan will definitely work but as pointed out several places earlier in this thread...if you try to do this in the presence of other thru hikers then the plan will probably go out the window and all of you will likely stay in town the entire time. The only saving grace then will be slitting the room costs with the others.
OTOH, if you are not on a budget...find a place with a sauna and hot tub!
Good luck.
geek
Need to be back for school in the fall.
Don't tell me you're one of those teasippers! Whoop! ;) TAMU forever!
Now, to answer your question, as most have said, it probably won't make a difference. It'll be cold some days, it'll be nice some days, it'll be wet some days, and it'll be dry some days. You'll see snow whether you start in Feb or Mar... I had snow in the Great Smokey Mountain National Park in April and again outside Erwin much later that month. So, just go, and enjoy!
ATX-Hiker
12-19-2008, 13:05
Don't tell me you're one of those teasippers! Whoop! ;) TAMU forever!
Now, to answer your question, as most have said, it probably won't make a difference. It'll be cold some days, it'll be nice some days, it'll be wet some days, and it'll be dry some days. You'll see snow whether you start in Feb or Mar... I had snow in the Great Smokey Mountain National Park in April and again outside Erwin much later that month. So, just go, and enjoy!
I'm not too into tea, and if I don't make it back by August, oh well. Life goes on and school can wait, not going to short change my trip so I can get a piece of paper a whole semester sooner. I'm also slightly partial to the Ag's, I did a short stint there.
Rockhound
12-19-2008, 14:16
I'd wait till I got to Pearisburg or Roanoke before shipping my winter gear up north. It can still get quite cold in the mtns in SW Va in early April.
Ill meet you 1/2 way. Lets say Damascus.
max patch
12-19-2008, 14:59
Ill meet you 1/2 way. Lets say Damascus.
One rule of thumb is to not mail your cold weather gear home until after Mt Rogers.
Thats a pretty good rule.
One rule of thumb is to not mail your cold weather gear home until after Mt Rogers.
Thats a pretty good rule.
I was lucky. I didn't carry any winter gear. I figured that Georgia in early April would be the same as Miami in January. I was wrong. What I discovered was that April on the mountain ridges of Georgia and North Carolina is quite similar to April at home on mid-coast Maine. But it was still a lot of fun, and I survived without major problems.
Weary
Doubletime
12-19-2008, 15:48
Hey ATX;
I'm leaving 3-4-09 and have alot of the same thoughts as you but you seem to be asking all the questions I am thinking. So I like reading your threads. We seem to be on target with alot of our gear choices as well. I just bought a seedhouse sl2 and I was looking at the aether70 but went with the Gregory z55. I hope it's enough room. I saw you bought a helium but it was to much money for me, so I got a little heavier bag in the Marmot Sawtooth.
Anyway hope to run into you on the trail, maybe hunkered down in a shelter together taking turns running into town to bring back pizza.
Jack Tarlin
12-19-2008, 15:59
I have been sleeted and snowed on well North of Damascus as late as 23 May.
You don't want to send your cold weather gear home at Damascus, especially if you start in February or March.
Waiting til Bland or Pearisburg makes a great deal of sense.
garlic08
12-19-2008, 18:46
I got some good, belated advice from Lois at the Dutch Haus. She sees lots of cold hikers there in May, me included. She said wait until after Trail Days weekend, no matter where you are, to jettison the cold-weather gear. I sent mine home at Pearisburg, then got marginally cold weather the next week near Montbello.
Jim Adams
12-19-2008, 18:49
Ill meet you 1/2 way. Lets say Damascus.
Definitely wait till you are past the Grayson Highlands. Damascus is 100 miles too early. In 2002 everyone sent the cold gear home at Trail Days and then stayed in Damascus for the 4 days past Trail Days due to an ice storm in the Highlands.:-?
geek
Happy Feet
12-19-2008, 19:05
I'd wait till I got to Pearisburg or Roanoke before shipping my winter gear up north. It can still get quite cold in the mtns in SW Va in early April.
I agree with Hikerhead. We sent our cold weather gear home from Pearisburg both trips. We left the church hostel into blowing snow, but when we got out of town, it was fine!