AT Thru-hiker Study Results: Backpacks

[Johnny Swank]

Part I (http://sourcetosea.net/thru-hiker-backpacks/) and Part II of the Backpacks (http://sourcetosea.net/thru-hiker-backpacks-part-ii/) section of my Appalachian Trail Thru-hiker Study (http://sourcetosea.net/category/at-thru-hiker-study/) are now finished and posted. I got more into difference by decades, brand preference, overall trends, and, drumroll please..... The Most Popular Pack on the Appalachian Trail (http://sourcetosea.net/the-most-popular-pack-on-the-appalachian-trail/).

The easiest way to stay up-to-date on the findings is to subscribe to our website feed via email (http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/emailverifySubmit?feedId=579382&loc=en_US) or RSS (http://feeds.feedburner.com/sourcetosea). That way you'll get updates as I post them.

Take care,

-Johnny Swank

[RememberYourZen]

this is quality stuff!

Not surprised about the granite gear though, ULTRAlight

[Jim Adams]

Nice work. Can't wait to read more!

geek

[Phreak]

Great work!

[Johnny Swank]

Thanks. I had to take a hiatus from working on this study for about a year (new job changes, etc) but it's been nice to get my hands dirty with this again. I'm going after the low-hanging fruit of the data first (demographics and whatnot) before getting into the real meat of things (looking for relationships, factor analysis, etc). This way I can clean up things and present some stuff as I go.

Yes, some days I wish I was back to being a full-time student again. I could do this for 8 hrs/day if I didn't have this job-thingy to deal with!

[Digger'02]

Bootstrapping! all Bootstrapping!

[Plodderman]

Thank you.

[Jack Tarlin]

Great work, and very interesting reading.

I feel compelled, however, to point out that the data and research involved pack use in 2006 and 2007.

It is now 2009.

From my own observation, from discussions with all of the popular Trailside outfitters, and from discussions with manufacturers and manufacturers representatives, I think that Osprey has either equalled, or more likely passed Granite Gear in popularity. I think this was the case in 2008, and I suspect that it will be this year as well, at least on the A.T.

There are several reasons for this:

*There was indeed a period (admittedly brief) where certain Granite Gear packs were having wear-and-tear issues, which is a more pleasant way of saying that more than a few of them had durability problems. This problem was immediately addressed and corrected.

*While GG clearly led the field, other manufacturers (notably Osprey and ULA to name just two) started chipping away at the "liteweight" market, and these were backpack customers who almost certainly would've gone with GG a year or two earlier.

*The Osprey Atmos series was an extraordinary success, and for good reason: They are great backpacks, as was the Aether series before it.

In short, I have no reason to doubt any of Johnny's data or findings. I am merely suggesting that was true in 2006 and 2007 is not necessarily still true today.

[Johnny Swank]

Oh yeah, I agree. I tried to make it clear that I was going with that 2006-2007 cohort but probably need to bold a few lines. Makes and models were all over the place, and I put more trend-related stuff in the last paragraph or so. That's the stuff I'm more interested in to be honest.

All this stuff is a moving target, but it's been fun to wade through it.

[Digger'02]

Christos would be proud of you, you old blues hound.

[frisbeefreek]

I'd love to see a regression of packweight vs. miles/day (and also packweight vs. year). Unlikely this data exists (you'd have to collect all the variables (gender, age, weight), and unless you have a time machine...

I'm sure many have had the same awakening as I--

My pack/bag/tent/stove weight was ~18# in 1995. It's now ~9#, with better and cheaper equipment. That weight alone permits me to extend my distance between resupply by 4-days.

This is equipment alone, and does not include the effect internet information availability (like this great site) has had (I now tarp tent and alcohol stove, which can cut my base weight to 5# on summer trips!).

[Johnny Swank]

I've got the data to do that, with at least these caveats.

1) Daily mileage is going to be affected by zero days, and unless everyone was consistent in guessing their number of zeros, it'll through things off some. I'm not really sure myself about the number of zeros I took, other than "a bunch"
2) Most of my responses were from 2000 on. I'd love to get some older data to play with. Muesser's book, Lessons from the Appalachian Trail, has some great stuff from 1989.
3) Packweight - this is going to be a guess for most folks, and dependent on water, food, etc.
4) Trail mileage by year. The trail gets longer every year, and I'd have to plug that into things
5) Blue/yellow/aqua/other blazing

Again, I'm as much interested in larger trends as anything super-specific, but I'll be playing with scads of regressions and factor analysis just because I'm a dork who's interested in it.

I've already done some cipherin' concerning water treatment (rates and types) related to water-borne illnesses that probably going to get some folks in a tizzy, but I want to sit down with one of my stats peeps to verify that I'm going about that analysis right before spilling the beans.