View Full Version : Winter Storm - What Storm???
Wise Old Owl
01-10-2009, 14:10
I am more frustrated than ever, the news teams make blown out proportions about how bad a winter storm is. I always think they get to charge more for advertising or something. I had plans to go north this morning for a trip to the Poconos and was promptly talked out of it by concerned relatives. It was supposed to start early this morning and as it progressed on radar - nothing came down! I know they are good at what they do, but to have it wrong by over 6 hours?
For folks outside PA Philadelphia is a very fickle town about weather, and weather guys. We have a news team with a character called Hurricane Swartz, who wears a bowtie, the nut, the darth vadar of weather reporting. The only reason he has this job is because a nut before him made a bigger mistake of prediciting the storm of the century that never happened. Yup John Bolaris! He was asked to leave, putting "trust the bow tie! - Hurricane in the prime slot. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Bolaris
Which begs the question, when Channel 10 Wcau predicts a winter storm that can keep you off the trail.... Have you seen a flake or two?
I am sure we will get hit with snow but to be wrong by 1/2 a day or more when you can see it on the radar... frustrating.
StarLyte
01-10-2009, 14:20
Same thing happened here in Cleveland Ohio yesterday...we kept hearing "8-10 inches"...nothing happened, "blizzard warning", nothing happened...then in the middle of the night the snow started falling 3 inches PER HOUR !
Driving is impossible because of hasty or inexperienced drivers. The snow plows cannot keep up because of the rapid snow fall.
So all I can tell you is....it's on the way to your doorstep ha ha !
I would be always be concerned about winter driving, but on the hiking side of things I think its possible to go anyway, as long as you are prepared for the worst weather, and stay within reasonable range for trudging out in deep snow. Even in the worst storm you can stay with a mile of your car or truck if you need to and still have a great time and learn alot, but the driving is the thing. Here I am rather fortunate because I can just leave from my house in winter. In summer I need to bike or drive to get somewhere interesting, but in winter you don't have to go as far.
I use the climate data, and prepare for the worst for that month. That way you can be your own weatherman. For going up mountains that isn't practical, but for stuff in the woods its practical to be prepared for the worst. Well, I shouldn't say that. The worst here can be -30F and deep snow, and I can handle that for a day or two but I don't think I'm prepared for a week of it, so in winter I stay within trudging out the day distance, which isn't far, but doesn't need to be.
Feral Bill
01-10-2009, 14:53
I go straight to the Weather Service web site for the forcast and ignore the TV people. Sometimes I check Intellicast as well. Before Christmas we had 27" without warning. That could have be nasty in the back country. As JAK says, prepare for the worst you might get.
jersey joe
01-10-2009, 15:42
I am sure we will get hit with snow but to be wrong by 1/2 a day or more when you can see it on the radar... frustrating.
Not sure how much different philly is then northern jersey, but weather.com said yesterday that the snow would start at 11am today and gosh darn it, that's what it did, right on time...
Blissful
01-10-2009, 15:49
We've had a half inch of snow so far this season. In early November (!)
But my parents in the Catskills of NY are getting whammed this year.
tell me about it...63* and dry pavement outside
jersey joe
01-10-2009, 15:58
Yes, the northeast has had a lot of snow already this year.
today...3 inches and counting...
No snow in GSMNP either http://www.nature.nps.gov/air/webcams/parks/grsmpkcam/grsmpkcam.cfm
Pokey2006
01-10-2009, 16:33
I picked a good year to move south, out of New England! Hahahahaha....
Chenango
01-10-2009, 17:41
Snowing right now in central NY (1 hr north of Binghamton). It started about 2 hours ago (2:30). It is really coming down.
Pedaling Fool
01-10-2009, 18:02
We still have a lot to learn about weather. They always screw up the rain forecast down here in Florida.
I've heard that 'significant weather', meaning precipitation and such, is more difficult to predict than stuff like wind speed and temperature. They make mistakes both ways though. We got some wet snow and freezing rain which was supposed to ruin out cross-country skiing conditions for awhile, but instead it laid down a great base, and was followed by 2" of perfect snow rather than more rain. Full moon tonight, so my friend and I are going for a night ski on the Kennebecasis River.
Pedaling Fool
01-10-2009, 18:20
I'm sure it is. Just to clarify: I wasn't being critical of anyone who studies climate, it is a tough nut to crack.
I didn't think you were. Nature in general is very complex, which makes it all the more interesting. As I get older I'm getting increasingly bored with theoretical lab science and applied engineering where the environment is out and your system is in, and I'm more and more fascinated and inspired by natural science and processes, and natural history.
Amazing stuff, and its good to be apart of it.
tell me about it...63* and dry pavement outside
I think I am going to remember this about 7/1.
Wise Old Owl
01-10-2009, 19:00
Driving is impossible because of hasty or inexperienced drivers. The snow plows cannot keep up because of the rapid snow fall.
That hit home, I don't mind a thread swerve.... about 5 or 7 years ago we had a very strong storm dump so much snow some roofs were on the verge of collapse. It wasn only a couple of feet but very water laden and heavy. I remember most of the cars were off the road but the folks with 4 wheel drive came out and ripped up the snow (with no ablilty to break) Mostly teens and some Humvees owners.
Just a dusting right now.
Wise Old Owl
01-10-2009, 19:12
I go straight to the Weather Service web site for the forcast and ignore the TV people. Sometimes I check Intellicast as well. Before Christmas we had 27" without warning. That could have be nasty in the back country. As JAK says, prepare for the worst you might get.
Jak & Feral Bill I have been watching it all day and I can see why they get it wrong sometimes. I agree trying to be your own weather guy is downright difficult. I discovered today that if it is snowing above and the ground temps are 2-3 degrees above 32, nothing hits the ground.
So if you are big intellicast fans as I am, I circled where the real storm was and it was a whole day late,
http://i250.photobucket.com/albums/gg275/MarkSwarbrick/Storm.jpg
IT's official- they blew it, this picture was taken about 2 pm and the storm broke up and moved north. we got a dusting.
Just cuz you can get going doesn't mean you can turn or stop.
I use three internet weather sites, two local channels, and the WC. Still have to wonder sometimes. I try to use this function to get a handle on timing.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php
Scroll across the blue time header.
For further out:http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml
Click on day 3, then top middle right to advance thru day 7.
The Scribe
01-10-2009, 19:16
I am more frustrated than ever, the news teams make blown out proportions about how bad a winter storm is. I always think they get to charge more for advertising or something. I had plans to go north this morning for a trip to the Poconos and was promptly talked out of it by concerned relatives. It was supposed to start early this morning and as it progressed on radar - nothing came down! I know they are good at what they do, but to have it wrong by over 6 hours?
For folks outside PA Philadelphia is a very fickle town about weather, and weather guys. We have a news team with a character called Hurricane Swartz, who wears a bowtie, the nut, the darth vadar of weather reporting. The only reason he has this job is because a nut before him made a bigger mistake of prediciting the storm of the century that never happened. Yup John Bolaris! He was asked to leave, putting "trust the bow tie! - Hurricane in the prime slot. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Bolaris
Which begs the question, when Channel 10 Wcau predicts a winter storm that can keep you off the trail.... Have you seen a flake or two?
I am sure we will get hit with snow but to be wrong by 1/2 a day or more when you can see it on the radar... frustrating.
I am sure it isn't any different anywhere else. Here in Maine the TV weather guys treat every snowfall as an "event." Like people here have never seen snow before. I just shake my head and say, "this isn't Atlanta people. (nothing against Atlanta)." It is totally over the top. And that doesn't even address the issue of whether they are correct or not.
I am sure it isn't any different anywhere else. Here in Maine the TV weather guys treat every snowfall as an "event." Like people here have never seen snow before. I just shake my head and say, "this isn't Atlanta people. (nothing against Atlanta)." It is totally over the top. And that doesn't even address the issue of whether they are correct or not.
The potential threat of snow flurries in Atlanta is a Breaking Story with warnings to go buy milk and bread every 10 minutes:eek:
Wise Old Owl
01-10-2009, 19:18
Wow Mudhead I havn't seen true isobars in years! yes it works.
Wise Old Owl
01-10-2009, 19:22
I always enjoy reading your posts Egads, You never fail to add to the conversation and bring up other ideas. I always wondered why folks need to stock up on bread & milk. I bearly need the stuff! If I did we can make bread right here from scratch with little effort. Now if I could just bring back the distillery in the basement!
saimyoji
01-10-2009, 19:30
Hmmm....i was at the trailhead at 309 this morning at 6, and it was near whiteout conditions for the first half hour. biggest issue was the ice leftover from earlier in the week. i didn't brave knife edge. hiking in the snow rocks.
Its crazy really, what we buy before a storm. Up here it seems to be water.
Six inches of rain coming and we are all out buying water. Like we can't just wait. :)
Toolshed
01-10-2009, 19:41
WOO, WE are about 30 minutes N of you and have about 4" and still falling. North of us they got more.
saimyoji
01-10-2009, 19:48
Its crazy really, what we buy before a storm. Up here it seems to be water.
Six inches of rain coming and we are all out buying water. Like we can't just wait. :)
a storm like this comes through, first thing i do is set up my tent in my yard and get ready to test out my gear. just like i did last night......i had to be home, but i didn't have to be in my home. :cool:
Pedaling Fool
01-10-2009, 19:49
Its crazy really, what we buy before a storm. Up here it seems to be water.
Six inches of rain coming and we are all out buying water. Like we can't just wait. :)
It's our animal instincts. I feed squirrels in my yard, they got plenty of food, but they still fight over it, unless I spread it out. It's kind of fun to watch them chasing one another around the tree. We think we're civilized, but we do the same thing as soon as supplies seem to be getting stretched. This is the root of greed, which is all about survival -- it's not about money (it seems like it is, but that's just an illusion) -- it's our animal instincts to ensure we're good to go in the rough times. All animals have this greed.
Same thing happened here in Cleveland Ohio yesterday...we kept hearing "8-10 inches"...nothing happened, "blizzard warning", nothing happened...then in the middle of the night the snow started falling 3 inches PER HOUR !
Driving is impossible because of hasty or inexperienced drivers. The snow plows cannot keep up because of the rapid snow fall.
So all I can tell you is....it's on the way to your doorstep ha ha !
what's snow? oh, yeah...that stuff that falls in the Atlanta area once or twice a year, and accumulates about once every 10 years....
one of my facebook buddies (dad of another westpoint plebe who lives in Ohio) posted this pic today
johnnybgood
01-10-2009, 20:26
The potential threat of snow flurries in Atlanta is a Breaking Story with warnings to go buy milk and bread every 10 minutes:eek:
Richmonders are the same as they apparently are there in Atlanta. Just the mention of snow has people rushing to the grocery stores for Milk and Bread. Its better they stay home anyway ,most folks here cant drive a lick in good weather much less snow.:eek:
Hoop Time
01-10-2009, 21:38
Hmmm....i was at the trailhead at 309 this morning at 6, and it was near whiteout conditions for the first half hour. biggest issue was the ice leftover from earlier in the week. i didn't brave knife edge. hiking in the snow rocks.
Drove 78 from just wet, with next to no snow accumulation in the Harrisburg area to Easton, where it was snowing pretty good and the roads were treacherous.
Along the way, in many spots it was snowing hard enough for the mountains to the north of the highway to be obscured almost completely. Looked to me there was lots of snow on the ridge tops where the trail runs from maybe 501 on north.
Toolshed
01-10-2009, 22:13
Yup - Me!!! on a Ridgetop by Easton. We got about 5"now.
Wise Old Owl
01-11-2009, 22:32
Turns out the non event storm did some AT damage and serious icing, and downed trees. The affected area is near the North East Turnpike exstention in PA. I will check it out in the spring.
Toolshed
01-12-2009, 00:36
Youbetcha I was pissed this AM. Last night I blew about 4-5" of fresh powder off teh driveway and thought about pulling out the BC skiis, but since it was so cold, I figured I would get out this AM for a couple of hours. I thought perfect. Frozen ground means cold enough to keep it powder.
Go out this AM and everything was completely frozen over with a 1/4 to 1/2 inch crust of Ice - It rained an Sleeted late last night. Screwed up my entire plans. Effing PA and it's miserable weather patterns.
The Late December melt screwed me out of 3 days of XC skiing in Buffalo over Christmas too.. :(
For folks outside PA Philadelphia is a very fickle town about weather, and weather guys. ... Which begs the question, when Channel 10 Wcau predicts a winter storm that can keep you off the trail.... Have you seen a flake or two?
I am sure we will get hit with snow but to be wrong by 1/2 a day or more when you can see it on the radar... frustrating.
I lived in the Philly area for a few years. It used to amaze me, whenever they predicted snow, the salt trucks would be out along the Schuylkill Expressway, engines running, lights on, loaded with salt hours before the first flake fell, just waiting in case it got slick.
Here in Michigan the trucks usually wait to come out until after the Sheriffs Dept. has been called out to at least 40 or 50 spin-outs and fender-benders. Even then, if it's a Friday night, side roads won;t be touched until Monday morning, if then. Can't pay overtime, you know. Farmers tractors get a good workout and keep things moving.
Richmonders are the same as they apparently are there in Atlanta. Just the mention of snow has people rushing to the grocery stores for Milk and Bread. Its better they stay home anyway ,most folks here cant drive a lick in good weather much less snow.:eek:
It's funny, people from the north always talk about how people in the south panic at the first sign of snow. Then here in Atlanta the yanks that are filling up our burbs rib us about not being able to drive in snow. Then when we get some winter weather they're the first to wipe out because while there is only a 1/2 inch of snow on the ground, it's covering 2 inches of ice :) .
When we had the "blizzard" back in `92 or `93 we were stuck in our house for well over a week without power. Never once saw a snow plow on our rural NW GA road. Good thing we had a fire place and neighbors with a 4 wheeler. Going to the grocery store 5 miles away on that was fun:) . The metro Atlanta area just doesn't have the infrastructure to deal with even fairly mild snows/ices .
leeki pole
01-14-2009, 10:38
Its crazy really, what we buy before a storm. Up here it seems to be water.
Six inches of rain coming and we are all out buying water. Like we can't just wait. :)
Winter storm, we buy whiskey and beer. Hasn't snowed here since New year's eve 2000.
Wise Old Owl
01-15-2009, 23:11
I lived in the Philly area for a few years. It used to amaze me, whenever they predicted snow, the salt trucks would be out along the Schuylkill Expressway, engines running, lights on, loaded with salt hours before the first flake fell, just waiting in case it got slick.
Here in Michigan the trucks usually wait to come out until after the Sheriffs Dept. has been called out to at least 40 or 50 spin-outs and fender-benders. Even then, if it's a Friday night, side roads won;t be touched until Monday morning, if then. Can't pay overtime, you know. Farmers tractors get a good workout and keep things moving.
I remember that when I learned to drive in Chicago! All hell would have to break loose before the truck hit the road!
Wise Old Owl
01-15-2009, 23:19
It's funny, people from the north always talk about how people in the south panic at the first sign of snow. Then here in Atlanta the yanks that are filling up our burbs rib us about not being able to drive in snow. Then when we get some winter weather they're the first to wipe out because while there is only a 1/2 inch of snow on the ground, it's covering 2 inches of ice :) .
When we had the "blizzard" back in `92 or `93 we were stuck in our house for well over a week without power. Never once saw a snow plow on our rural NW GA road. Good thing we had a fire place and neighbors with a 4 wheeler. Going to the grocery store 5 miles away on that was fun:) . The metro Atlanta area just doesn't have the infrastructure to deal with even fairly mild snows/ices .
I bet you keep more groceries on hand now!