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TJ aka Teej
04-26-2004, 17:36
ATC reports these GAMEr figures:

Springer Mtn., Ga. 3/31 623, 4/9 801, 4/22 1120

Neels Gap, Ga. 3/31 498, 4/9 641, 4/22 896

Fontana Dam 3/22 133, 4/4 238

Harpers Ferry 4/9 - 2, 4/22 13

Kozmic Zian
04-26-2004, 22:03
Yea......Count. Seem kinda light this year, TJ?

TJ aka Teej
04-26-2004, 23:13
Yea......Count. Seem kinda light this year, TJ?

Seems that way, and then we hear about 30 hikers at one shelter! The one number you can 'count' on is from Harpers Ferry - everyone seems to stop by to get their poloroid taken! I'll see if I can scare up last year's numbers.

flyfisher
04-27-2004, 08:31
TJ,

Any idea how they get the Springer number? Is it from people posting at the mountain as a thru-hiker, or from checking in at the visitor's center, or what?

tlbj6142
04-27-2004, 08:33
My brother left spinger on 3/28. He sleeps in/around shelters every night. They were "full" only the first 3 nights. A couple of nights he was in the shelter alone! From phone calls and journals I'd say the "average" so far has been ~7 (in/around).

I've been quite suprised by this news. As I expected him to be in crowds at least through Damascus. He was amazed, though, at how many folks drop out by Neels Gap. We had both heard stories, but until you actually see it happening I wouldn't have believed it. Mentioned that one guy (on the approach trail) had a giant pack and was carrying a duffel bag full of food. Must have been plannig on 1mi/day until he made it to the Walasi-Yi center for resupplies.:D

My brother just left Hot Springs 2 days ago (25-Apr). He has been doing 10-12mi a day.

flyfisher
04-27-2004, 08:53
My brother just left Hot Springs 2 days ago (25-Apr). He has been doing 10-12mi a day.

Is he posting to trailjournals? Name there?

tlbj6142
04-27-2004, 09:25
Is he posting to trailjournals? Name there?
Here is his journal (http://www.trailjournals.com/cburnett/). It is my job to transcribe them. Sometimes I think he is trying to write a dissertation, not a journal. But it is his journal, not mine.

Since he is mailing me his written entries. It is usually 10-14 days behind. I'm expecting 9 day's worth of journals (Fontanna thru Hot Springs) tonight.

flyfisher
04-27-2004, 09:51
Here is his journal (http://www.trailjournals.com/cburnett/).


Thanks Yellow Jacket! I will follow his progress. I hope he takes a trail name soon, the indexes are easier to follow with a name.

Jaybird
04-27-2004, 09:55
ATC reports these GAMEr figures:

Springer Mtn., Ga. 3/31 623, 4/9 801, 4/22 1120

Neels Gap, Ga. 3/31 498, 4/9 641, 4/22 896

Fontana Dam 3/22 133, 4/4 238

Harpers Ferry 4/9 - 2, 4/22 13



looks like the LEAP YEAR is a LITE YEAR (numbers wise)!
but, i think on another post....i saw there were large groups of "thru-hikers" all packed together in shelters & hiking 6, 8, up to 15 hikers in groups. .....whatever gets you to Maine... :D

Moon Monster
04-27-2004, 14:15
It does indeed look lower than 2003, but not by much. I kept an eye on the ATC's website statistics as I went north in 2003. ATC extrapolates its estimated Springer count based on the Walasi-Yi's count.

As of April 15, 2003, an estimated 1120 hikers had left Springer that year. So, it took an extra week this year to get to that same count. But, ATC now lists 1750 NOBO starts for 2003. That means 36% of prospective NOBOs in 2003 started after mid-April. When I hit Harper's Ferry on May 20, 2003, fewer than 1400 Springer starts were listed for that year. That means more than 20% of 2003's prospective NOBOs started (or were counted) after mid-May 2003.

So, 2004 could still see several hundred more starts added to these numbers.

Of course, 2003's count was lower than 02, which was lower than 01, which was lower than 00--the record year.

I believe what we've seen in 2003 and 2004 are realistic counts for a typical year in the post Bill Bryson era. That is, they are not light in general; they are only light when compared to the record years around the millenium. Years 1999-2001 are not typical. 3,000 hikers do not start from Springer every year. 1700 is more typical. The only hikers who are in jammed packed shelters every night from Springer to Damascus are those who wish to be with friends. It is possible to be alone or only with a few thru-hikers and section hikers in the South.

tlbj6142
04-27-2004, 14:26
Thanks Yellow Jacket! I will follow his progress. I hope he takes a trail name soon, the indexes are easier to follow with a name.He has been given a few. But he doesn't like them. Though I heard from my mother last night that he may have found one he likes.

I, honestly, think he thinks they are sort of stupid. Which I don't blame him. But it seems like they are sort of hard to avoid.

tlbj6142
04-27-2004, 14:34
i saw there were large groups of "thru-hikers" all packed together in shelters & hiking 6, 8, up to 15 hikers in groups.I think this is true. My brother mentioned that he was "between" groups. While he has been hiking with a small number of folks (2-3) initially, I think he is down to just one (someone called Sampson or is Samson).

He has also been the type not to push an extra mile or two to make it into town. I think he stopped a mile or two short of Neels, Hiawassee and Fontanna before hiking into town. This, as noted in one of his journal entries, has caused him to fall out of a crowd at times.

Just goes to show that if you make an effort it is possible to be somewhat alone on the AT even in the south. Though I do NOT think he wants to be entirely alone. Maybe just a bit subdued.

Tater
04-27-2004, 14:39
He has been given a few. But he doesn't like them. Though I heard from my mother last night that he may have found one he likes.

I, honestly, think he thinks they are sort of stupid. Which I don't blame him. But it seems like they are sort of hard to avoid.
I think the problem is not much thought is given to trail names. Usually someone spouts out the first thing that pops in thar head, just so they can annoint them with a name. You're eating noodles tonight, I'll name you Noodles.

tlbj6142
04-27-2004, 14:42
You're eating noodles tonight, I'll name you Noodles.That is exactly what happened to him. He described the name as "one dimensional".

TJ aka Teej
04-27-2004, 15:26
TJ,

Any idea how they get the Springer number? Is it from people posting at the mountain as a thru-hiker, or from checking in at the visitor's center, or what?

The ATC adds 20% to the Neels Gap total, assuming that's how many drop out by then.
Back in 2003, the ATC had these Nobo numbers on these dates:
Springer 4/8 1005, 5/14 1375
Neels Gap 4/8 804, 5/14 1100
Fontana Dam 3/31 263, 4/30 859
Harpers Ferry 5/14 66

totals: 2002 2003
Springer, 1875 1750
Neels Gap, 1500 1400
Fontana, 999 1028
Harpers, 687 741
Katahdin 347* 352*
*data collected at Baxter State Park is higher
Where the ATC gets these numbers:
http://www.appalachiantrail.org/hike/thru_hike/source.html

flyfisher
04-27-2004, 15:27
That is exactly what happened to him. He described the name as "one dimensional".

He has two choices, unless he has given up one. He can choose a name and pretend that its been his forever, or he can accept one given in a not so generous mood. To be honest, from reading his journal, he is likely to be given one, not like it, and get stuck with it when everyone starts using it - real soon.

This is how it works in fighter squadrons. It seems to work the same way on the trail.

If he still has time and wants to try to apply a multiple dimension tag to himself, let me proclaim that from now until Katadin, he is "Matrix." (A matrix has unlimited dimensions.)

tlbj6142
04-27-2004, 15:53
If he still has time and wants to try to apply a multiple dimension tag to himself, let me proclaim that from now until Katadin, he is "Matrix." (A matrix has unlimited dimensions.)Just heard from Mom that he may stick with "Father ounce" (or Father oz) which sounds like a good name for him. As he has been helping just about everyone cut their weight. Without being a snotty a-hole about it.

He even had the gaul to tell Flying Brian that he should consider a pot cozy. Once he realized who it was, he knew that he should be doing the listening instead of making suggestions.

Brian said on the AT Cozies are not worth the "trouble" as you can re-fuel every few days (almost daily if Brian was going full speed, which he is not this year). So, the quarter/half oz of fuel you save doesn't really buy you much.

chris
04-27-2004, 15:53
He has two choices, unless he has given up one. He can choose a name and pretend that its been his forever, or he can accept one given in a not so generous mood. To be honest, from reading his journal, he is likely to be given one, not like it, and get stuck with it when everyone starts using it - real soon.

This is how it works in fighter squadrons. It seems to work the same way on the trail.

If he still has time and wants to try to apply a multiple dimension tag to himself, let me proclaim that from now until Katadin, he is "Matrix." (A matrix has unlimited dimensions.)

Whenever someone doesn't like a nickname, that is when it gets stuck on. Of course, stupid names won't last, neither will ones that the person is really offended by. I like renaming people who clearly gave themselves their own trail names, although to be fair to them I never used my own name with them personally, only in smaller cliques.

Not to pick a quarrel, but a matrix is pretty finite dimensional. It is just a few numbers, put into a block. If you want to get technical, a matrix is just a linear map from one vector space to another. That is, from a mathematical perspective (and, as we all know, mathematicians are all knowing, all powerful, and stunningly handsome) a matrix is described by a finite set of numbers. If you want something infinite dimensional, try something really fancy, like a weakly symplectic Banach algebra. Now, that would make a fabulous trailname!

flyfisher
04-27-2004, 15:54
I find some hope in these figures.

First, let me dismiss the Springer number... it is only calculated anyway. Some variable number of people will quit in the first 30 miles. Let me think of them as ill prepared for the hike. In this number will be the people carrying dutch ovens, bicycles, and people that do not sleep in hammocks (just kidding!).

The great news, is that of all the hikers that arrive at Neels Gap, a quarter of them will get to Katadin. A full quarter! I had always believed it was only about 10 percent - that figure being used widely in books I have read. When I look around at the thru hikers in Georgia, one out of 4 will make it! Amazing!

Half of those hikers passing through the arch at Neel's gap will make it to Harpers Ferry and have a hike to think about the rest of their lives! Amazing! They will make it past the knee crunching NC mountains, past the Smoky Mountains, and through the VA roller coaster. It is with more esteem and pride that I will look at drawn faces in the shelters those first 100 miles!

It is with a bit more confidence that I will look in the mirror at my own.

flyfisher
04-27-2004, 16:06
Not to pick a quarrel, but a matrix is pretty finite dimensional. It is just a few numbers, put into a block. If you want to get technical, ... a matrix is described by a finite set of numbers. If you want something infinite dimensional, try something really fancy, like a weakly symplectic Banach algebra. Now, that would make a fabulous trailname!

I like Banach, it has panache. (do they rhyme?)
I like Father Oz. Yellow Jacket.

But to take on the quarrel, A matrix is described by a finite set of numbers, true, but the concept of "matrix" encompasses spaces of any numer of dimensions. They are usually most beautiful when described in terms other than a finite set of numbers. To say that A matrix is not more multidimensional than a car ignores the purpose of the matrix concept - to describe anything, anywhere, in any complex string dimension.

chris
04-27-2004, 16:17
Banach has a hard ch at the end, so it rhymes with lock.

The definition of a matrix is: A rectangular array of numbers. Alternatively, a matrix is a linear map of vector spaces. Given a finite basis (i.e, more vector spaces), one can the represent the map as a rectangular array. The only purpose of a matrix is to represent a transformation of finite dimensions in an easily digestable, computer friendly way. If these words don't have mathematical meaning for you, then you'll just have to trust me or ask your local mathematician. If the vector space happens to be infinite dimensional (infinite basis), then with a little extra structure, you have a Banach algebra (which are related to WSBMs). I suspect you've been reading too many general knowlege string theory or quantum mechanics books, as they tend to deal with things called complex Hilbert spaces, which are a lot like Banach algebras.