PDA

View Full Version : Things you can do to increase success rate..



joshua5878
01-26-2009, 17:54
Been reading this forum for years now and one thing I have had to come to grips with, is that, the Thru Hike, (NOBO or SOBO) completion rate without interuption is low.

At first I thought it was 1 out of 3 made it all the way, but now it seems more like 1 out of 10?? :0(

But aren't there things you can do in advance to increase your odds?? For instance, I am from FL, grew up in PA. (suburb of Phila) A lot of my child hood and high school and college friends are all wanting to meet me at different points of the trail ranging from VA to Maine! To me that is all the encouragement I need!

I know there are tons of other factors like money, illness, injury, weather etc... can take you off but putting all of that aside, one thing I have learned from all of you, namely Lone Wolf, is that it is just a walk! The rest is mental and then the above mentioned. But forget all of those things.

So, guess what I am saying, is that I intend to be 1 of the 10, or 12 or 14 or whatever the # is! Mean while I will keep watching the Rocky marathons, Rudy, Remember the Titans, The Natural, Field of Dreams.

Good luch to the entire class of 2009! Joshua

Grampie
01-26-2009, 18:12
I think the first thing you have to understand what a hard gruling feat you are about to take.
Too many hikers think it's all just fun and games while you walk the trail. The begining is quite hard. You have to adjust your life style to the trail. Be ready to be dirty, hungary and sometimes wet for days on end. Your feet will hurt and so will a lot of other parts. You probably will be cold and not sleep very well at night. Then there is the mental part. Being away from home and the ones you love. Spending hours alone just walking step after step after step.
There is no easy solution to doing a sucessfull thru other than good luck and a lot of determination.
Good luck on your quest to become one of the few and happy trails to you.:sun

emerald
01-26-2009, 18:17
Read Some hikers better than a 20% chance? (http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php?t=30727) It has more hits than any other thread I started.

joshua5878
01-26-2009, 18:27
Read Some hikers better than a 20% chance? (http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php?t=30727) It got more hits than any other thread I started.

Just glanced at the thread, get back to you in a couple of days after I have read. 12 pages?

A-Train
01-26-2009, 18:28
First off, odds are probably closer to 30 % now. A thru-hike is a difficult undertaking, but not impossible.

Some things to improve chances:
Continue researching on this site as you've been doing
start off slow and work up your mileage. Prevent injuries by gradually increasing mileage.
Take days off when you need them.
Have extra money for when things pop up (injury, sickness).
Stay flexible, don't be married to a schedule. Likewise, avoid partnerships that will alter your trip. Stay true to what you want out of the hike, not what others want.
Stay in touch with people at home, they can provide good motivation.
Stick with your commitment. Sending out emails or starting a trailjournal or blog will put some "pressure" on you when things get tough.
Keep your gearr really light
Have fun. If you keep the mood light and stay thankful for the opportunity, it's just walking.

emerald
01-26-2009, 18:44
First off, odds are probably closer to 30% now.

I'm not sure I'm buying 30% or that it means anything. ATC's numbers vary from one year to the next and interpreting them is not a simple matter. Completion rates could have a great deal to do with what's happening in the media as some have suggested. Weather, honesty and information may influence them too. I'm not convinced completion rates should be how we measure whether we are doing all we might to help A.T. hikers.

I would like to believe no one's getting into something they didn't understand at the outset and is as prepared to make the most of the opportunity as possible. That might be a good measure of whether we're succeeding in accomplishing our objective.


12 pages?

Just wait until it sets in what 2000 miles and 5 million steps entails.:D

emerald
01-26-2009, 18:46
Likewise, avoid partnerships that will alter your trip.

Isn't that a good thing sometimes?

Slo-go'en
01-26-2009, 18:49
I think the most critical thing to do in advance to increase your odds is to have at least some prior backpacking experiance, so you know what your getting into. The drop out rate in the first two critical weeks on the trail is the highest for those who haven't done this kind of thing before.

It also helps to do a lot of walking just before you hit the trail, which will reduce the chances of having foot problems early on, which stops a lot of people.

take-a-knee
01-26-2009, 18:53
1) Start out in shape www.crossfit.com

2) Consume enough protein daily to prevent muscle/tendon wasting. Using Zone Diet principals this would be about one gram per pound of lean body mass (you weight minus your body fat).

3) Prevent stress fractures by consuming enough protein (your bones are 25% protein, IE collagen matrix), see 2 above

4) Get a shoe/sock system worked out before you start

5) Keep your pack light and don't be a mileage hog.

Johnny Thunder
01-26-2009, 18:56
I think the most critical thing to do in advance to increase your odds is to have at least some prior backpacking experiance, so you know what your getting into. The drop out rate in the first two critical weeks on the trail is the highest for those who haven't done this kind of thing before.

It also helps to do a lot of walking just before you hit the trail, which will reduce the chances of having foot problems early on, which stops a lot of people.

Agreed. How many quit in the first weeks because "it wasn't what I expected." If everyone went out with a reasonable understanding of what they were in for then we would probably avoid a lot of the immediate attrition.

Tipi Walter
01-26-2009, 19:24
An AT thruhike is an arduous endeavor and not for everyone. If it was easy, a lot more people would be doing it. And there are so many ways of backpacking the AT that it seems strange to categorize the experience as to whether a 5 or 6 month nonstop thruhike is more fulfilling than a lifetime of section hiking. But as you said, a nonstop thruhike does have a high attrition rate, just look at so many of the Trail Journals with 20 enthusiastic pre-posts and then after 2 weeks on the trail they quit writing and disappear.

Or look at the recent January hikers who got off the trail to wait for warmer weather. For the most part, successful thruhikers are a motivated bunch and will reach the end one way or the other. It's hard to say what exactly you could do to be certain of success. It's mostly mental, and the mind has a way of changing when conditions turn sour. For some it's not the hiking that is rough but the homesickness and loneliness. You could always turn down the volume on your mileage knob, and shoot for a lower mileage-per-day thereby reducing the pressure to move forward at a relentless pace. You could do a 12 month trip at 7 miles per day, take it easy and look around. Not much pressure then except for the wallet. And a full year would give you the whole four seasons. Unrealistic, I know, but it sounds good.

Jack Tarlin
01-26-2009, 19:28
Or you could just wait a few weeks to start.

I bet the completion rate is a whole lot higher for those electing to start after 21 March.

These February-March starters are sure beating the big crowds all right.

No crowds when they start, and no crowds when they're home three weeks later, either. :rolleyes:

garlic08
01-26-2009, 19:32
A couple of posts above have put pack weight near the bottom of a good list of stuff. I like the lists, but I would put lower pack weight nearer the top.

A-Train
01-26-2009, 19:34
Isn't that a good thing sometimes?

Sure if you meet your future wife or something :)

Point being I've seen a lot of people lose sight of what they came out to experience and achieve because they got in lock step following a cute chick or a really cool guy and forgot how independent they were when they started the trail.
Groups and other hikers have a funny way of convincing others to push extra miles, take a short day, take one more zero, hitch to a concert, take a week off at the beach, catch a ride 200 miles to a hiker feed, etc. Nothing wrong with that if one wants their "once in a lifetime hike" to be dictated by others wants and desires.

Gaiter
01-26-2009, 19:37
click your heels together three times and think of what you want most

but really, hike your own hike, keep in mind that the trail isn't going anywhere... if your thru hike turns into a section hike because of physical, financial, or time reasons thats okay, just enjoy the journey till you reach your limits,
some of the most likely candiates for a completed thru don't get past nc, while some of the most unlikely candiates do, there isn't really anything that will be a sure fire way to complete a thru hike, so just enjoy every min. and you'll go much further...

Pedaling Fool
01-26-2009, 19:58
I think the vast majority of people that fail a thru is a result of boredom or not liking to hike every day, day-after-day. I think many of them make excuses, but the real reason they get off is because they got sick of hiking every-damn-day!!

When people say it's mostly a mental (not physical) challenge to do a thru-hike, they're absolutely correct.

Jack Tarlin
01-26-2009, 20:02
Actually, I just spent a few minutes thinking about this. One can get in great shape; one can become the world's biggest gear-head; one can hang out for months or years on every A.T. website there is......

But truly, if you wanna increase the chances getting thru those critical first few weeks, and if you really want to increase your chances of finishing a Northbound thru-hike, then here's one of the best pieces of advice I can give you:

Don't start until at least 15 March.

Tinker
01-26-2009, 20:08
Most people are ready to finish when they reach Maine. The novelty has long worn off, the monotony has set in, the aches and pains never go away, they miss their friends at home, ahead of them, behind them, the bugs never give you a day off, the food doesn't change much, etc. Coming from a section hiker it seems to me that time spent in towns helps recharge a lot of folks, but it can be a double-edged sword - the draw to return to the creature comforts might just get to be bigger than the draw to return to the rigors of the trail. Weeks of rain, weeks of sweltering heat, etc.
I doubt I could do it, but, given the time and money, I'd be more than willing to give it a try.

Tinker
01-26-2009, 20:13
Actually, I just spent a few minutes thinking about this. One can get in great shape; one can become the world's biggest gear-head; one can hang out for months or years on every A.T. website there is......

But truly, if you wanna increase the chances getting thru those critical first few weeks, and if you really want to increase your chances of finishing a Northbound thru-hike, then here's one of the best pieces of advice I can give you:

Don't start until at least 15 March.

Knowing what I know now, after talking with countless thru-hikers and attemptees :D, I couldn't agree more.
Most folks used to start in the middle of April and still finish by September. They traveled lighter and faster because they didn't need all that winter junk, and they didn't freeze their fannies off right away, get discouraged, and go home.
To paraphrase a line from "A Walk in the Woods" - What'd they expect - elevators, maybe? :D

FritztheCat
01-26-2009, 20:13
I was thinking about the mental aspects of the trail. Boredom, tedious one foot in front of the other, day after day, and homesickness. I haven't thru-hiked (will go in 2011) but have to wonder if someone such as myself, a (will be in 2011) prior military member, wouldn't have at least an advantage on one aspect.

I've done plenty of six month deployments and even a couple of overseas tours - all away from the family back home. The first one was the toughest because homesickness is really hard to overcome. After that, the deployments and time away from family became easier - not more pleasant, but easier to cope with. They became not only easier for me, but easier for my family. The wife learned to be independent (she always has been but it's different when the spouse is gone) and the kids adjusted.

I think that's probably one of the hardest aspects of a thru-hike for many people. Homesickness from the hiker and also the "I really miss you" calls from the family members back home.

Penn-J
01-26-2009, 20:19
I made a list I'm going to bring with me called "Reasons To Finish The Trail"
I'm thinking I can pull it out and read when I get discouraged.
For example:
1. You have to much time and money invested to not finish.
2.You have the rest of your life to stare at a tv and computer screen.
3. It will be "words of success" for you. Knowing that you finished what you started will give you confidence in the future.
I have 26 so far and I add to the list all the time. I've included some of my favorite quotes and personal reasons as well.

joshua5878
01-26-2009, 20:24
Most people are ready to finish when they reach Maine. The novelty has long worn off, the monotony has set in, the aches and pains never go away, they miss their friends at home, ahead of them, behind them, the bugs never give you a day off, the food doesn't change much, etc. Coming from a section hiker it seems to me that time spent in towns helps recharge a lot of folks, but it can be a double-edged sword - the draw to return to the creature comforts might just get to be bigger than the draw to return to the rigors of the trail. Weeks of rain, weeks of sweltering heat, etc.
I doubt I could do it, but, given the time and money, I'd be more than willing to give it a try.

I just realized, as a 2009 Thru Hiker, I need to "ween" myself off of WB. Thanks for all of the great advice, I need to leave. Thanks again to all of you! Joshua

Pedaling Fool
01-26-2009, 20:25
I made a list I'm going to bring with me called "Reasons To Finish The Trail"
I'm thinking I can pull it out and read when I get discouraged.
For example:
1. You have to much time and money invested to not finish.
2.You have the rest of your life to stare at a tv and computer screen.
3. It will be "words of success" for you. Knowing that you finished what you started will give you confidence in the future.
I have 26 so far and I add to the list all the time. I've included some of my favorite quotes and personal reasons as well.
Your list will probably end up shredded and tossed off some mountain:D

mountain squid
01-26-2009, 20:29
So, guess what I am saying, is that I intend to be 1 of the 10, or 12 or 14 or whatever the # is! Why even worry about it? Just Have Fun. It seems like it might be unnecessary stress to worry about completing when you haven't even started and don't really know what to expect. Just Have Fun. If you stop having consistent fun, find something else to do and don't worry about whether or not you finished. The trail will still be there. (I highlighted consistent because there will be plenty of days that aren't fun, but overall you are still Having Fun. If you go for several days or a week and it feels like a chore and is no longer fun, start thinking of something else to do. You don't want to be in NH and hate every step of the way...)

In my opinion there is too much emphasis on success/failure. Just Have Fun. Too many hikers can get too wrapped up in that sentiment. Just Have Fun. Then if they have to get off the trail for whatever reason, they feel embarrassed because they didn't finish. What difference does it make? The trail will still be there the following year. Just Have Fun.


Good luch to the entire class of 2009! I'm with you in wishing Good Lunches to the entire class of 2009.:D

Good Luck and Have Fun!

See you on the trail,
mt squid

rickb
01-26-2009, 20:39
Deleted

mountain squid
01-26-2009, 21:28
but have to wonder if someone such as myself, a (will be in 2011) prior military member, wouldn't have at least an advantage on one aspect.

I've done plenty of six month deployments and even a couple of overseas toursI don't believe it is an advantage. It can be similar but the main difference is that a six month deployment isn't something you choose to do. You have to do it and have no choice in the matter. Even when it sucks there is nothing you can do about it. You get up at 0430 every morning so chow can be ready at 0600, etc. You just do it. Yes, it does become routine and you always manage to persevere, though.

A thru-hike is a choice and although it can become routine, it should most importantly be fun in my opinion. If it stops being fun, why make yourself continue? Once it stops being fun, for whatever reason, homesickness, excess rain/cold, tired of walking, being hungry, etc, you have a choice, unlike a deployment when you don't have one.

While hiking I thought of this analogy, but realized that I had the choice to continue or not. It took me 3 seasons to finish the trail (04-06 - I just took alot of zeroes:rolleyes:...)I had fun.

See you on the trail,
mt squid

Marta
01-26-2009, 22:14
Being stubborn by nature is a huge advantage. It may be the single most important factor.

Stellbell3
01-26-2009, 22:52
As I plan my 09 thru hike I am going into it just taking what comes. I would LOVE to make it to Katahdin but it isn't going anywhere. I will not push myself mileage wise and take it slow, especially in the beginning. I like the idea to make a list of reasons to finish the trail but I know what to expect and know myself pretty well that I MAY get homesick, sore feet (god damn plantar fasciitis). Knowing people are at home cheering me on will be a HUGE motivator!!

I am looking forward to the fitness/weight loss aspect of the hike!!!! AND meeting new people is always fun!

GOOD LUCK Class of 2009. Look forward to seeing you on the trail!

Tin Man
01-26-2009, 22:54
Just Have Fun.



Being stubborn by nature is a huge advantage. It may be the single most important factor.

Equal parts of these along with picking a warmer start date and you can improve your chances.

And remember the adventure soon wears off and it becomes a job. Do it as long as your body cooperates (and you feed it and rest it proper) and keep your mind in the game (remember why you are doing it and think about whether that still matters). If you ever feel like quitting, take a zero or six and rest or do something else, then hit the trail again and see how you feel.

Above all else, do it for yourself and should you decide to finish early do not even think about how anyone else may look at your or your hike, especially the folks here. :)

Blissful
01-26-2009, 23:10
First off, odds are probably closer to 30 % now. A thru-hike is a difficult undertaking, but not impossible.

Some things to improve chances:
Continue researching on this site as you've been doing
start off slow and work up your mileage. Prevent injuries by gradually increasing mileage.
Take days off when you need them.
Have extra money for when things pop up (injury, sickness).
Stay flexible, don't be married to a schedule. Likewise, avoid partnerships that will alter your trip. Stay true to what you want out of the hike, not what others want.
Stay in touch with people at home, they can provide good motivation.
Stick with your commitment. Sending out emails or starting a trailjournal or blog will put some "pressure" on you when things get tough.
Keep your gearr really light
Have fun. If you keep the mood light and stay thankful for the opportunity, it's just walking.


This is excellent advice.
And all true...

Have a great trip, 2009'ers. I'm excited for you.

Pootz
01-26-2009, 23:32
My hiking partner Evil Eye and I talked about this a lot during our 07 thru hikes. A few things we felt helped us.

1. Completing your thru hike has to be #1 on your lkist of things to do. There will be lots of time for other things once you are finished.

2. Get everything in order at home before you leave. You cant be on the trail for 6 months worreing about things at home. Take all of the mental load off before putting on your pack.

3. keep your goals small, resupply to resupply. Things on the trail have a way of taking care of themselves. To many hikers spend time thinking agout things far up the trail. Focus are where you, you will get there soon enough. Do not spend time worrying. Have fun every day

4. Start your hike with enought money to finish and some extra. Things come up that you will need money for and once your out of money your done. And stick to your budget. If you cant afford to stay in hotels and eat expensive food then don't do it. There are not many ways to make money on the trail. What ever your budget it will be enough.

5. Do not skip sections, no mater what anyone tells you. Once you start skipping sections you lose your focus. Take side trips if you want but not at the expense of skipping trail. Stand on Kathadin knowing in your heart that you walked all 2175 miles of the AT. This should be your #1 goal, SUCCESS

6. Enjoy everyday. Every monent will not be fun but you will have fun everyday. This is a once in a lifetime event for most people enjoy it. You are going to make memories that will last a life time. If you are like me it will be the best 6 months of your life.

Good luck, hope to see you on the trail.

Tin Man
01-26-2009, 23:54
My hiking partner Evil Eye and I talked about this a lot during our 07 thru hikes. A few things we felt helped us.

1. Completing your thru hike has to be #1 on your lkist of things to do. There will be lots of time for other things once you are finished.

2. Get everything in order at home before you leave. You cant be on the trail for 6 months worreing about things at home. Take all of the mental load off before putting on your pack.

3. keep your goals small, resupply to resupply. Things on the trail have a way of taking care of themselves. To many hikers spend time thinking agout things far up the trail. Focus are where you, you will get there soon enough. Do not spend time worrying. Have fun every day

4. Start your hike with enought money to finish and some extra. Things come up that you will need money for and once your out of money your done. And stick to your budget. If you cant afford to stay in hotels and eat expensive food then don't do it. There are not many ways to make money on the trail. What ever your budget it will be enough.

5. Do not skip sections, no mater what anyone tells you. Once you start skipping sections you lose your focus. Take side trips if you want but not at the expense of skipping trail. Stand on Kathadin knowing in your heart that you walked all 2175 miles of the AT. This should be your #1 goal, SUCCESS

6. Enjoy everyday. Every monent will not be fun but you will have fun everyday. This is a once in a lifetime event for most people enjoy it. You are going to make memories that will last a life time. If you are like me it will be the best 6 months of your life.

Good luck, hope to see you on the trail.

awesome post...

...it has been said that yellow blaze fever has tilted the stats, so if you get the fever, then don't hide it like many have before

lingo
01-27-2009, 04:01
My way of looking at it is one foot at a time. I am pretty stubborn too which doesn't hurt. I just finished up my itinerary this evening. I am planning a couple of week long hikes in the next 6 weeks to help with the first few weeks. The support that I am getting now is going to help me while I am out there. Good luck on your trip maybe we will meet on the trail.

lingo
Class of '09

DavidNH
01-27-2009, 10:31
Joshua,

If you want to maximize your chances for successfully thru hiking the AT:

Allow enough time. Plan for 6 months at least. Some do it in four months but they tend to be doing high mileage (20 plus) with little time off. Hiking 30+ mile days is counter productive as it results in more zero days (I never did this but that is my observation of others).

Do a short (weekend or three day) hike first, maybe even a one week trek. This allows you to see if you really like backpacking and you have chance to iron out mistakes. If you don't like hiking after a week..imagine six months of that?

Keep checking in on white blaze like you have been doing. Lots of experts here with advice to offer.

Hike south to north if you can. If for no other reason, the highlight of the 100 mile wilderness and those first close up views of Katahdin makes the rest of the trip worth it! Of course..you have to get there first!

Expect that the trip is not always fun. There are days when it is wet and miserable and you are starved and everything is sopping wet. I found the occasional night in a motel to dry off and rest did wonders.

Have at least 5000 socked away. Yeah you could probably get by on less.. but why not have a cushion? some have quit because there money ran out.

Remember.. the more town time you take the more you will spend.

David

Jim Adams
01-27-2009, 11:01
Jack has a good point...don't start before March 15. You will be faced with enough adversity on your trip w/o adding more.
Other than that follow LoneWolf's advice...just walk.
You will be cold, you will be hot, you will be wet, at times you'll wish you were wet, you will be hungry, you will be tired, you will be sore BUT everyone out there will experience these things also not just you and some of them will make it and some won't. People can overcome setbacks...it is usually attitude that will complete or end your hike. Have fun and walk...if you are not successful, it will be because YOU quit and went home not because of anyone else. Don't get too detailed ie:
1. Start on or after March 15.
2. Walk and have fun as much as possible.
3. Touch the sign on top of Katahdin.
That pretty much sums it up.

geek

ScottP
01-27-2009, 11:02
#1 Have fun

joshua5878
01-27-2009, 11:38
Joshua,

If you want to maximize your chances for successfully thru hiking the AT:

Allow enough time. Plan for 6 months at least. Some do it in four months but they tend to be doing high mileage (20 plus) with little time off. Hiking 30+ mile days is counter productive as it results in more zero days (I never did this but that is my observation of others).

Do a short (weekend or three day) hike first, maybe even a one week trek. This allows you to see if you really like backpacking and you have chance to iron out mistakes. If you don't like hiking after a week..imagine six months of that?

Keep checking in on white blaze like you have been doing. Lots of experts here with advice to offer.

Hike south to north if you can. If for no other reason, the highlight of the 100 mile wilderness and those first close up views of Katahdin makes the rest of the trip worth it! Of course..you have to get there first!

Expect that the trip is not always fun. There are days when it is wet and miserable and you are starved and everything is sopping wet. I found the occasional night in a motel to dry off and rest did wonders.

Have at least 5000 socked away. Yeah you could probably get by on less.. but why not have a cushion? some have quit because there money ran out.

Remember.. the more town time you take the more you will spend.

David

Thanks David.

Serial 07
01-27-2009, 14:06
PMA...positive mental attitude...

emerald
01-27-2009, 14:26
Nothing wrong with that if one wants their "once in a lifetime hike" to be dictated by others wants and desires.

I was thinking more along the lines Jan Leitschuh has posted. When one's will is weak, the remedy may be to draw upon the strength of another.

Groups can be good or bad on or off-trail. Be careful with whom you associate yourself especially in the early weeks. Many of the people you meet will quit. One or the worst things to do is to fall in with an unhappy camper.

warren doyle
01-27-2009, 14:31
1) Download my one-page book from my website and read/ponder it several times

and/or

2) Attend the Appalachian Trail Institute at least one year before your planned thru-hike.

Happy trails!

Footslogger
01-27-2009, 14:35
I would tell you to just "get real" about the whole thing. Realize up front that hiking for several months isn't going to be fun all the time. Make up your mind right from the outset that you are going to focus on the journey and not the destination ...and then stick to that line of thought.

All else aside (and there are a lot of other reasons that thru-hikes get cut short), setting realistic expectations will serve you well in terms of sticking it out making it all the way.

'Slogger

jersey joe
01-27-2009, 14:44
Being stubborn by nature is a huge advantage. It may be the single most important factor.
I thought it was dedication to a commitment and perseverance...but you might be right, it's stubbornness...this is a huge factor in completing a thru hike.

archy
01-27-2009, 14:44
Enjoying the expericence is the most important part. You can not prepare for that. As long as you enjoy the trail and trail life keep going. When you do not enjoy it get off.

RITBlake
01-27-2009, 14:54
A successful thru hike is based on a three part recipe:

Positive Attitude + Stubbornness + Sense of Humor

RITBlake
01-27-2009, 15:09
It would be interesting to create a chart of some 20-30 characteristics and track thru hikers to see who fits the mold as the ideal candidate.

Age, Sex, Departure Week, MPD, Amount of $ Saved, Outlook, etc.

Johnny Swank
01-27-2009, 15:48
Or you could just wait a few weeks to start.

I bet the completion rate is a whole lot higher for those electing to start after 21 March.

These February-March starters are sure beating the big crowds all right.

No crowds when they start, and no crowds when they're home three weeks later, either. :rolleyes:

Jack - I'm poking around in that part of the dataset right now. This is one of the things I'm especially interested in.

I'd also be willing to bet that folks starting before April 1 or so spend much more in lodging (and overall), but that's going to have to wait for a bit.

A-Train
01-27-2009, 15:59
Jack - I'm poking around in that part of the dataset right now. This is one of the things I'm especially interested in.

I'd also be willing to bet that folks starting before April 1 or so spend much more in lodging (and overall), but that's going to have to wait for a bit.

As a one-time March 1st starter I've been interested in true statistics and data, but no one seems to be able to provide it.

I started making a list of all the thru hikers and attempted thru-hikers I met on my 2003 hike, but I'll have to go back to my notes to complete such a list. Surely there will be a few I forgot and some I'm not sure what ever happened to. Much like counting yearly thru-hikers, every piece of research has its flaws. I can report that so far, almost 2/3rds of the hikers I listed starting in early March/late February made it to Katahdin.

Additionally, I wouldn't be so sure about spending lots more than April starters on lodging.

-each year is different, and sometimes Feb and March are very mild down south
-late NOBO's will sometimes get lodging and accomadations to beat the heat and get AC. I experienced one week of hot weather on the hike.
-Many early starters are motivated folks who are starting due to a school schedule, needing to be back by late August. I was one of those, as were most of my trail companions. Mostly, this group was determined, avoided excessive zeros and town stops. Most finished in 5.5 months and under. From my observations many of the folks who start in late march/April have no timetable other than Baxter closing and generally take loner and more leisurely hikes, which often involves spending money.

Like I said, the weather vacillates annually so there is no steadfast rule, but I wouldn't say March 15th is a "safe" date. With anything, you need a little luck and a lot of determination.

Tipi Walter
01-27-2009, 15:59
Why even worry about it? Just Have Fun. It seems like it might be unnecessary stress to worry about completing when you haven't even started and don't really know what to expect. Just Have Fun. If you stop having consistent fun, find something else to do and don't worry about whether or not you finished. The trail will still be there. (I highlighted consistent because there will be plenty of days that aren't fun, but overall you are still Having Fun. If you go for several days or a week and it feels like a chore and is no longer fun, start thinking of something else to do. You don't want to be in NH and hate every step of the way...)

In my opinion there is too much emphasis on success/failure. Just Have Fun.
mt squid



#1 Have fun

I think these sentiments hit it exactly but I can't quite put it into words. It's expressed with a word like 'fun', but there's something else working inside the backpacking human heart. It might be about freedom and nature combined, a powerful drug for some. The happiest people I've seen in a long time have been thruhikers on the AT. Most of them are young, w/o the usual Worry that invades the older crowd, and so therefore can sport in simple abandon. What better place to do it than on a long trail with your home on your back?

Mags
01-27-2009, 16:14
Make sure you enjoy hiking more than camping.

Sounds silly, but many people who start the AT love to camp. That's great..I love to do to at times. :)

But, even on a "slow" 6 month hike, you are doing an average of 12 MPD.

So, be sure you enjoy the hiking part of backpacking as much as the camping! Walking for a good portion of the day and almost every day is not something everyone necessarily enjoys.

Other than that? Enjoy the trip. Laugh. And have that odd combo of flexibility and stubbornness that LD hikers seem to have!

Slo-go'en
01-27-2009, 16:35
As a one-time March 1st starter I've been interested in true statistics and data, but no one seems to be able to provide it.

Maybe if someone camped out at Springer for a couple of months, handed everyone a questioner to fill out along thier trip and told them they'd get 20 bucks back if they actually sent it in, maybe you'd get some data. Good idea to get a goverment research grant for, eh? :-?

A-Train
01-27-2009, 16:41
Maybe if someone camped out at Springer for a couple of months, handed everyone a questioner to fill out along thier trip and told them they'd get 20 bucks back if they actually sent it in, maybe you'd get some data. Good idea to get a goverment research grant for, eh? :-?

There was a guy who did that in 2003. Stopped a bunch of us south of Dicks Creek Gap. Except is was more about the psychology of a long-distance hike and how our moods and feelings changed. I did one when I finished and sent it back to him to chart change, but I'm not sure how many others followed thru.

Yes, collecting data from Springer all spring would be really interesting, but a tough, tough job.

Tin Man
01-27-2009, 16:49
Maybe if someone camped out at Springer for a couple of months, handed everyone a questioner to fill out along thier trip and told them they'd get 20 bucks back if they actually sent it in, maybe you'd get some data. Good idea to get a goverment research grant for, eh? :-?

Actually, Larry Luxenberg wrote an interesting study of thru-hikers. The excerpt has some interesting data relevant to the discussion...

http://gorp.away.com/gorp/books/excerpts/thruhike.htm

Kanati
01-27-2009, 18:21
Why even worry about it? Just Have Fun. It seems like it might be unnecessary stress to worry about completing when you haven't even started and don't really know what to expect. Just Have Fun. If you stop having consistent fun, find something else to do and don't worry about whether or not you finished. The trail will still be there. (I highlighted consistent because there will be plenty of days that aren't fun, but overall you are still Having Fun. If you go for several days or a week and it feels like a chore and is no longer fun, start thinking of something else to do. You don't want to be in NH and hate every step of the way...)

In my opinion there is too much emphasis on success/failure. Just Have Fun. Too many hikers can get too wrapped up in that sentiment. Just Have Fun. Then if they have to get off the trail for whatever reason, they feel embarrassed because they didn't finish. What difference does it

make? The trail will still be there the following year. Just Have Fun.
I'm with you in wishing Good Lunches to the entire class of 2009.:D

Good Luck and Have Fun!

See you on the trail,
mt squid



I think Mtn Squid has given some good advice in his postings, and others have also. If I can add my 2 cents worth, do not, I repeat do not carry a cell phone unless you must have it. I did and it haunted me the whole trip. My wife does not in any way support my hiking enthusiasm. In fact I think she hates it because it takes me away from home. I simply cannot understand that. I thought bymy having my phone, I could talk frequently with her and keep her encouraged and help resolve things like broken appliances and other things that I normally handle without getting her involved. BUT, every time I talked with her, I was depressed and felt guilty for 2 days afterwards until it wore off. It was like a disease. It added about 20 pounds to my pack weight. Then I would screw up and call her again and the depression would come back. I know this sounds like bitching and I apologize, but what I'm saying is, if you do not have a support base back home, my advice is to send them a card about once a week to let them know you're still alive. You will be much more happy and more apt to finish your hike. Take a fools advice.

joshua5878
01-27-2009, 19:18
I think Mtn Squid has given some good advice in his postings, and others have also. If I can add my 2 cents worth, do not, I repeat do not carry a cell phone unless you must have it. I did and it haunted me the whole trip. My wife does not in any way support my hiking enthusiasm. In fact I think she hates it because it takes me away from home. I simply cannot understand that. I thought bymy having my phone, I could talk frequently with her and keep her encouraged and help resolve things like broken appliances and other things that I normally handle without getting her involved. BUT, every time I talked with her, I was depressed and felt guilty for 2 days afterwards until it wore off. It was like a disease. It added about 20 pounds to my pack weight. Then I would screw up and call her again and the depression would come back. I know this sounds like bitching and I apologize, but what I'm saying is, if you do not have a support base back home, my advice is to send them a card about once a week to let them know you're still alive. You will be much more happy and more apt to finish your hike. Take a fools advice.

I wish to God I didn't have to bring my cell. There is only 1 reason I need to. I am divorced, so no wife to worry about, but I have an 11 year old son. If there was an emergency there would need a way for them to get a hold of me. But I know what is going to happen, every time I check my messages they will all be from my ex, bringing me down. I will want to talk to my son weekly to be sure he is ok, don't mind that, just don't want to here the ex's voice.. Suggestions anyone?? I have thought about getting him his own cell but it would be a matter of time before she busted him talking to me. He is ok with me doing the hike.

Jack Tarlin
01-27-2009, 19:37
If your ex is unhappy, or if the sound of her voice makes you unhappy, well there's not much you can do about it.

Concentrate on your trip and enjoy yourself.

But staying in touch with your son is really important. Bring the phone along and don't think twice about it.

Jim Adams
01-27-2009, 22:15
But staying in touch with your son is really important. Bring the phone along and don't think twice about it.

GREAT ADVICE JACK!!!!!! There were many times on my thrus that the only thing that made my day and kept me going was talking to my kids.

geek

Sleepy the Arab
01-27-2009, 22:16
Or you could just wait a few weeks to start.

I bet the completion rate is a whole lot higher for those electing to start after 21 March.

Oh really? I'd like to add myself to your study.

If you're like to increase your success rate, there is only one logical thing to do if only 1 out of four or five make it: cause four or five people to keep from finishing.

Ha ha! Just a little hiking humor. I pull that joke out every time I'm in Georgia, followed by a menacing look at some goober.

Seriously though, don't start on Springer with your eye on Katahdin. You won't get there in a couple of weeks so take it easy. Celebrate your small victories: Hiking to Franklin, of Fontana is an accomplishment and a lot of hard work. Make sure to see the humor in the small things. Make sure you are comfortable spending hours - or possibly days - by yourself.

Tinker
01-28-2009, 00:28
There are a lot of sedentary people who start the trail with the very best lightweight gear, have read all the right books, love to camp, etc. only to quit before they reach NC, if not sooner.

If you HATE hard physical work, it would be unlikely that you'll finish - however, some comfort seeking nonphysical people stick with it long enough that they see themselves getting shape maybe for the first time in their lives and realize that it doesn't seem like WORK to them, and they finish. It's hard to say who will and who won't make it. Some people complain every step of the way, apparantly hating the journey, but finish anyway. Must be the "conqueror" mentality that keeps them going - that or embarassment about quitting.

ARambler
01-28-2009, 00:29
My hiking partner Evil Eye and I talked about this a lot during our 07 thru hikes. A few things we felt helped us.

1. Completing your thru hike has to be #1 on your lkist of things to do. There will be lots of time for other things once you are finished.

2. Get everything in order at home before you leave. You cant be on the trail for 6 months worreing about things at home. Take all of the mental load off before putting on your pack.

3. keep your goals small, resupply to resupply. Things on the trail have a way of taking care of themselves. To many hikers spend time thinking agout things far up the trail. Focus are where you, you will get there soon enough. Do not spend time worrying. Have fun every day

4. Start your hike with enought money to finish and some extra. Things come up that you will need money for and once your out of money your done. And stick to your budget. If you cant afford to stay in hotels and eat expensive food then don't do it. There are not many ways to make money on the trail. What ever your budget it will be enough.

5. Do not skip sections, no mater what anyone tells you. Once you start skipping sections you lose your focus. Take side trips if you want but not at the expense of skipping trail. Stand on Kathadin knowing in your heart that you walked all 2175 miles of the AT. This should be your #1 goal, SUCCESS

6. Enjoy everyday. Every monent will not be fun but you will have fun everyday. This is a once in a lifetime event for most people enjoy it. You are going to make memories that will last a life time. If you are like me it will be the best 6 months of your life.

Good luck, hope to see you on the trail.

This response as my favorite among many good ones. However, you must take all advice and apply it to you. For example, "1...your thru hike has to be #1 on your list..." Does not really tell you what to do. But if you were serious with your question, you will be able to report back to this thread and tell us what you are doing to achieve you goal. There is no right answer. You might start March 15 to maximize the length of the season if you are slow. You might start April 15 to minimize the chance that an extended snow storm will knock you out. Most things will take real effort, like increasing your budget, doing test hikes, physical training, equipment selection that's right for you, etc.

I'm a little worried about your question. I don't know where you came up with a 1 in 10 chance, but that is not a realistic assesment of the overall population and picking up on 10 % when the success rate may be closer to 30 % is kind of negative. Certainly just saying you are going to be 1 in 14 is not going to make you more prepared. It may be a way to deal with the prehike jitters most of us have.

Good Luck,
Rambler

superman
01-28-2009, 01:08
"If thru-hiking isn't the most important thing in your life at the time
you are doing it, then stop doing it and go do what is." --Wingfoot:)

Screech
01-28-2009, 02:22
Having more money than you could ever need would seem to me to be the best way to stay on the trail.

fiddlehead
01-28-2009, 04:19
If you love to walk, it'll be fun and games.
If you don't...........Well, you'd better be strong-willed.

Ramble~On
01-28-2009, 06:00
Wow...interesting thread.

If you start with Jedi mind tricks already in your head maybe you ought to save your money and go on a nice vacation instead.

If you are thinking about starting a thru hike and it turns into a section hike instead are you going to be harmed in some way? Enjoy the trail, enjoy the freedom that you have. Enjoy your hike as regardless of the outcome your time spent on the trail will stick with you.
When High School or College got tough....did you quit ? or did you roll with the challenege and come out with a major boost in "self".

If I needed reasons to help me along...I wouldn't start.
Every day is a good day if you put it in the right perspective.
PMA - Positive Mental Attitude has already been mentioned and I (strongly) second it.
I'll agree with/add to what's already been mentioned to increase your chances.

1. Have more than enough time
2. Have more than enough money plus a chunk to come home to
3. Have a burning desire to do it and an understanding that it won't be easy
4. Keep in mind that you ARE doing what many people wish they could do but never will.

emerald
01-28-2009, 13:49
4. Keep in mind that you ARE doing what many people wish they could do but never will.

When I didn't seem to be enjoying myself on a few occasions early in my own through hike, I pondered #4 and continued walking.