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View Full Version : Nobo Count as of 5/10/04



TJ aka Teej
05-12-2004, 13:37
ATC's 2004 Thru-hiker Estimate, from the ATC website;

Northbound. ------ May 10. ----------- 2003 Totals
Springer Mtn. ------ 1,186 --------------- 1,750
Neels Gap----------- 949 ---------------- 1,400
Fontana Dam (5/5) -- 741 ---------------- 1,028
Harpers Ferry -------- 48 ----------------- 741
Katahdin --------------------------------- 391

Earlier totals are on this thread:
http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php?t=4549

Singletrack
05-12-2004, 14:23
I just returned from a hike, from Rock Gap to Fontana Dam, and there are alot of NOBOs out there. Must have seen 20 or more. I suspect they are still leaving from Springer.

flyfisher
05-12-2004, 15:00
Last year, the NOBO starting numbers dropped by about 500. It looks like there will be a drop this year too.

I imagine that most (almost all) NOBO thru hikers with the potential to finish this year have already started. 5 months from now will be 12 October.

Why are the numbers down? Economy doing better? More couch potatoes? People have to stay home to watch reality shows? Fear of West Nile Virus? Fear they will meet me on the trail? :-?

Thanks for posting the numbers TJ.

TankHiker
05-12-2004, 15:19
Yes, I noticed that the numbers have been going down, but the completion rate has been going up. Interesting.

I hate to say it, but I think one factor is that the "Bill Bryson factor" is wearing off. Say what you want about his book, but there was a huge spike in hikers after it was released. I would also say the employment numbers are up, causing a drop in hikers.

-Tank

Moon Monster
05-14-2004, 00:12
[QUOTE=flyfisher]

Why are the numbers down? Economy doing better? More couch potatoes? People have to stay home to watch reality shows? Fear of West Nile Virus? Fear they will meet me on the trail? :-?
[QUOTE]

I think the last couple of years should be compared to the mid-1990s and not to 2000. If you do that, then they are not really down.

Still, as the NOBO count has dropped each year since the record year (2000), I'm inclined to believe that the millenium and Bill Bryson were indeed two major factors in the puffing of the numbers in and around 2000.

jersey joe
05-14-2004, 11:16
I think Bryson's book was the #1 reason for the spike in thu-hike attempts. The book introduced the concept of thru-hiking and even the existence of the AT to countless people around the world (for better or for worse). On my 02' thru I met several people who cited the book as a reason why they were hiking including a guy from England. I wonder how much the British thru-hiker numbers spiked because of how popular the book was in his home country.

Rain Man
05-15-2004, 12:40
I wonder how much the British thru-hiker numbers spiked because of how popular the book was in his home country.

His home country???

Kozmic Zian
05-15-2004, 21:11
:p Yea......The British Guy!

smokymtnsteve
05-15-2004, 22:16
Bill Bryson's home country is the USA...he only moved to jolly ole england as an adult...and then he moved back to the USA later in life. BB is a born american.