Diffeence in Weather March 1 Vs 18th?

[gonewalkabout]

I was planning to start my thru on March 3rd. Someone at the ATC in Harpersferry said I see a significant improvement in weather if I waited 15 or so days until around the 18th of March. How acurate is this?

I know the weather is highly variable in the mountains and anything can happen at any time but in gerneral what do you think. I iked the LT in VT form the end of October to the the week before Thanksgiving so I am used to nights in the low teens. I know I could get snow off for a day or two. Is it likely to get snow off for musch longer or on multile ocassions?

Before you ask I am trying to get done before Labor day if possible.

Thanks

[Rockhound]

Either way you could hit some nasty weather. I'd just leave on the 3rd and if the weather turns too bad there's plenty of places to hole up for a day or two at the beginning of the trail. Just get a weather report before you enter the Smokies. You'll be fine.

[bigcranky]

You should be fine starting 3/3, especially if you want to finish by Labor Day. The extra two weeks will make more of a difference in being able to slow down (a little) on the hike than they will in the weather, in my opinion.

[Slo-go'en]

No doubt what the ATC says is statically true, but one year early March could be great and late March nasty. Or the other way around. Its close enough to beginning of March now, so you should be able to get a reasonably good long range forcast for the month. Lately, it seems it's been pretty warm down south and not too many storms and those have been moving through quickly.

[Lilred]

It's 71 in Nashville right now. Tomorrow morning it's supposed to be 29. It really is a crapshoot when it comes to the weather down here. I'd leave March 3rd.

[q-tip]

I am leaving March 4th, weather be what it be. I still have a fair bit of anxiety about the trip having been very sick in july last year, but I am leaving anyway. I am giving myself 7 months to finish, most of that includes a very slow start of 8 +/- miles a day for the first week and some zero days for my body to heal. I am bringing a warm bag, if I have to I'll just jump in and wait it out with the rest of the crowd.

[Pedaling Fool]

Night time temps won't be much different --although the average will probably be a little warmer, but it'll be cold at night. Maybe a little warmer daytime temps. I've hiked thru that area 4 times and I've seen snow on two seperate trips during the month of May.

[Panzer1]

"March goes in like a lion and out like a lamb.."

Does that answer your question?

Panzer

[Jack Tarlin]

The folks in Harpers Ferry told you exactly right.

While it's true that some years, the early March starters have great weather, you have a MUCH greater chance of experiencing milder and warmer weather by waiting 2 or 3 weeks to start.

In addition, if you do this, you'll almost certainly experience fewer shortened or abbreviated hiking days; will have less unplanned time off in towns; will spend less time in towns; and will probably save several hundred dollars.

[Nean]

I was planning to start my thru on March 3rd. Someone at the ATC in Harpersferry said I see a significant improvement in weather if I waited 15 or so days until around the 18th of March. How acurate is this?

I know the weather is highly variable in the mountains and anything can happen at any time but in gerneral what do you think. I iked the LT in VT form the end of October to the the week before Thanksgiving so I am used to nights in the low teens. I know I could get snow off for a day or two. Is it likely to get snow off for musch longer or on multile ocassions?

Before you ask I am trying to get done before Labor day if possible.

Thanks
Go early and don't think twice about it.:banana The world may come to an end by the third week of March!:eek::-?:rolleyes:;):(

[Pedaling Fool]

I would carry the same cold-weather gear for a March 18th departure date as I would if I started March 1st.

[Nean]

I was planning to start my thru on March 3rd. Someone at the ATC in Harpersferry said I see a significant improvement in weather if I waited 15 or so days until around the 18th of March. How acurate is this?

I know the weather is highly variable in the mountains and anything can happen at any time but in gerneral what do you think. I iked the LT in VT form the end of October to the the week before Thanksgiving so I am used to nights in the low teens. I know I could get snow off for a day or two. Is it likely to get snow off for musch longer or on multile ocassions?

Before you ask I am trying to get done before Labor day if possible.

Thanks
Go early and don't think twice about it.:banana The world may come to an end by the third week of March!:eek: :-? :rolleyes:

[gonewalkabout]

Thanks everyone for all your opinons. If I can pull it all together I be there on the 3rd. Thanks agian.

[SGT Rock]

Go for it. Last year the late starters hit bad weather in early april. Weather is weather.

[Rockhound]

The folks in Harpers Ferry told you exactly right.

While it's true that some years, the early March starters have great weather, you have a MUCH greater chance of experiencing milder and warmer weather by waiting 2 or 3 weeks to start.

In addition, if you do this, you'll almost certainly experience fewer shortened or abbreviated hiking days; will have less unplanned time off in towns; will spend less time in towns; and will probably save several hundred dollars.
I don't know about "a Much" greater chance. And as far as it costing "several hundred" dollars. Please. It will most likely be a little colder with a slightly better chance of running into foul weather. Some hikers prepare for such weather and hike and some only hike when it's 72 and sunny. I guess those are the ones that are spending hundreds of dollars extra.

[SGT Rock]

I stared in January and didn't take any days off for weather - just hiked in it (I did get some frostbite on my ears one day). I did take days off for illness and family visits. I had to walk through some knee deep snow and had temps in the single digits (without windchill factor) and it worked out.

[Panzer1]

And as far as it costing "several hundred" dollars. Please.

You could easily go through several hundred dollars pretty quick by just staying a few extra nights in motels and having a few extra restaurant meals.

Panzer

[Doxie]

I started march 30th and finished the day after labor day. We got quite a bit of crappy weather, even in May on Mt. Rogers, so you can't really avoid it, you just gotta hike through it. I live in Athens, GA, and March weather here is all over the place. It's true you're slightly more likely to miss some bad weather by waiting, but who knows? It could be Beautiful in the beginning of March, and it often is. We get a lot of thunderstorms in March and wide temperature fluctuations the entire month, so it's all luck of the draw. Go when is best for you, and don't worry about the weather.

[hopefulhiker]

If you leave earlier, it may give you more flexibility later.. to take an extra zero day, and you may not be as pushed towards the end to make the Labor Day deadline.

[Rockhound]

You could easily go through several hundred dollars pretty quick by just staying a few extra nights in motels and having a few extra restaurant meals.

Panzer
Let's say this hiker starts 2 weeks earlier and a huge blizzard hits and he has to zero for 7 of those 14 days. In the beginning of the trail there are enough hostels so you don't have to use hotels unless there is a group of 3 or 4 where the money will work out to be the same. Eating out is a choice not a necessity. Let's say this hiker spends a generous $10 on food eating in instead of out. $15/day lodging + $10/day food= $25/day X 7 days for a total of $175 for the week. It still ain't "hundreds" of dollars. On the other hand if this hiker chooses to hotel by himself and eat out for every meal I could see how it could cost "hundreds".

[Kirby]

I started march first and it was 65 degrees on Springer. One week later it was a blizzard.

Guess it depends on what time you want to hit Maine. Starting later into march means you will most likely be in Maine during early september, which is a nice time to be here.

[RadioFreq]

So all this talk about when to leave has got me thinking specifics:

Just how much snow cover is there on Springer and the higher elevations
to the immediate north right now? Anyone been up there recently?

[JAK]

JAK hasn't hiked the AT though.
You always want to know what the very worst might be, and be prepared for that.

[Shadowman]

In my 2004 Thru hike I started March 4.and finished July 9. It is true what has been said about the inability to predict weather. I encountered people that had started in Mid February (Dusty and Lefty) and one guy that started New Years Day, gave it up, changed out all his gear and then came back again. Just an opinion but early March is okay. I am one of those who carried the same gear in spring and the only thing I would definitely do different is carry a 10 degree bag instead of a 15. Twice I stayed out 10 days at a time without resupply and this is rather spartan compared to many but saves a lot of money. I only stayed in motels three times on the Thru-hike and also only three times on my previous section hike. Others prefer the socialization a town might offer but be prepared to pay for that. Others hit the towns more often because they are light hikers and need to resupply more often, however, once there the lure of pizzas, icecream, beer, etc. are hard to resist after about three weeks and the starving feeling starts. Also some feel obligated to check in by computer, charge various electronic devices, etc., or have made too many mail drops and have pick them up, re-direct them, foreward them ahead, etc.

Happy Hiking.

[Egads]

I was planning to start my thru on March 3rd. Someone at the ATC in Harpersferry said I see a significant improvement in weather if I waited 15 or so days until around the 18th of March. How acurate is this?

I know the weather is highly variable in the mountains and anything can happen at any time but in gerneral what do you think. I iked the LT in VT form the end of October to the the week before Thanksgiving so I am used to nights in the low teens. I know I could get snow off for a day or two. Is it likely to get snow off for musch longer or on multile ocassions?

Before you ask I am trying to get done before Labor day if possible.

Thanks
You may miss a front or two by delaying your start


So all this talk about when to leave has got me thinking specifics:

Just how much snow cover is there on Springer and the higher elevations
to the immediate north right now? Anyone been up there recently?

I wish there was some snow. BTW, the amount of snow we get in the south will not slow you down very much. Also, it will mest out within a couple or three days.

[Rockhound]

Looked at a weather report about 5 days ago and it said there was a chance of snow flurries today. So far we have about 4 inches worth of flurries today.

[Egads]

Looked at a weather report about 5 days ago and it said there was a chance of snow flurries today. So far we have about 4 inches worth of flurries today.

I am green with envy

[FatMan]

Statistically speaking the ATC is correct. I cannot speak for further north but here in Suches the Ave High and low on the first are 55/30. For the 18th they are 60/35. The big difference is that in early March we have seen single digit temps and about the lowest you will see in late March are upper teens. March has always been a crap shoot in Georgia. You may get lucky and have wonderfull weather or it may just downright suck. Chances are you will experience both. Enjoy your hike.

[DavidNH]

Well, it is very true that the later you wait, even waiting a couple weeks reduces your likely hood of bad (ie cold, snowy or icy) weather. However, Even a March 18 start does offer the possibility of encountering ice/snow/ very cold temperatures even if short lived. So I'd say you will need to carry the same gear either way.

Since you want to be done by labor day, I'd go with the earlier date of March 3 to give your self a little extra time. It would really suck to get into Beautiful Maine and find that you really have to hoof it instead of taking your time and enjoying swims scenery and camraderie. A March 3 start would probably also present less crowds (only a presumption on my part.. no idea if t his would in fact be the case).

David

[Jack Tarlin]

Gotta disagree with Rockhound's argument and his math.

Let's assume that one ends up taking, as he says, 7 unplanned zero days because of horrible weather.

He says one can save money by staying at a hostel instead of a motel.

Problem is that some places don't have a hiker hostel, or if they do, you can't stay seven days. And even if you could, his $25.00 a day figure is just wrong. First of all, most hostels charge more than $15.00 a day just for lodging fees, and secondly, if a hiker is holed up at a place that sells food, or has access to a town, then he's going to spend a helluva lot more than $10.00 a day on food. Hell, hikers will spend that on one restaurant meal. What does that leave them for food for the REST of the day? (And this doesn't include tobacco, beer, candy, snacks, coffee or any number of other things that hikers will spend money on in hostels or in town). It's kinda hard to stay at a hostel for 10 bucks a day when you're surrounded by friends eating Ben and Jerry's pints or ordering cheeseburgers or whatever. Taking time off, whetehr in a town or hostel, will inevitably cost you money, and usually, a lot more than you expected.

The $25.00 a day figure Rockhound presents is simply unrealistic for most hikers when they come to a hostel or town. Most folks will spend much more. If you end up taking a week or so off, inplanned, in the early part of the trip, it will indeed cost you several hundred dollars. At least. In many cases, this can be avoided by the simple expedient of starting one's hike two or three weeks later.

[Rockhound]

I went to the other extreme to make a point. 1st the chances of having to take 7 zeroes in the first 2 weeks is extremely unlikely. Also Mt. Crossings $15/night, Blueberry Patch works on Donations. Ms. Janets in Franklin I'm sure wont be charging more than $15 a night. 3 hostels in the first 108 miles $15 or less and if the weather was truly that horrible I'm sure these places would extend a 2 or 3 day rule. Also Ben & Jerrys' Cheeseburgers, beer, candy, snacks, going out to eat....these are choices not necessities. My $25/day for 7 zeroes may seem unrealistic but no more so than starting 2 weeks earlier costing a hiker "several hundred" dollars. Yes if you start in the begining of march as opposed to the middle of March you may run into some colder temps and some bad weather. Here's a crazy idea but how about hiking in it?

[Rockhound]

If you start later there will be more hikers. Much greater chance of making some friends and becoming part of a group. Be careful. That group mentality may wind up costing you several hundred dollars extra.

[Skyline]

Unless you have to—really have to—get it done in 2009, I'd start in mid-April. You'd still be very wise to pack for winter until after Memorial Day, but odds are significantly better you'll have a more enjoyable hike.

IMHO don't stress about making it to K in one hiking season, which for you seems to mean a cutoff at Labor Day. Most hikers can find a way to finish up another year.

[Rockhound]

Part of the thrill and challenge of thru-hiking is facing the elements. At least for some.

[kyhipo]

just go for it,I lover winter hiking,or early spring,ky

[Gray Blazer]

http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/vbg/showimage.php?i=20218&catid=member&imageuser=6217

Copper Ridge Bald, Nantahalas March 24, 2006

[Gray Blazer]

http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/vbg/showimage.php?i=20217&catid=member&imageuser=6217

Copper Ridge Bald, Nantahalas Mar 25, 2006

What a difference a day makes.

[Gray Blazer]

BTW, the nightly temps for the next 3 nights was about 10 degrees.

[RadioFreq]

I prefer March 24th.

:) T-minus 7 days...and counting :)

[frisbeefreek]

I'm trying to get a read how cold I can reasonably expect it to be for a March 8 Springer departure. I have a 20F bag + tent, so that doesn't worry me.

I was planning on evening temps of 32F up in the hills. I'm experienced enough to know that being wet is the bigger threat.

Mostly, I don't want to freeze while cooking dinner. I generally would wear a long-sleeve + light fleece top + light nylon rain jacket.

[Kanati]

I'm trying to get a read how cold I can reasonably expect it to be for a March 8 Springer departure. I have a 20F bag + tent, so that doesn't worry me.

I was planning on evening temps of 32F up in the hills. I'm experienced enough to know that being wet is the bigger threat.

Mostly, I don't want to freeze while cooking dinner. I generally would wear a long-sleeve + light fleece top + light nylon rain jacket.

What you may want to do is check out some trail journals for the month of March 06, 07, and 08. Many people talked about the weather in their daily recordings. In about an hour or two, you should be able to get a feel for what to expect.

As Panzer posted. If March comes in like a Lion, it goes out like a Lamb, and the reverse is true.

Happy hiking. :sun

[Rockhound]

I'm trying to get a read how cold I can reasonably expect it to be for a March 8 Springer departure. I have a 20F bag + tent, so that doesn't worry me.

I was planning on evening temps of 32F up in the hills. I'm experienced enough to know that being wet is the bigger threat.

Mostly, I don't want to freeze while cooking dinner. I generally would wear a long-sleeve + light fleece top + light nylon rain jacket.
I would plan on temps lower than that. Even in late march you can see it drop into the teens. Then again it may be one of those warm years. Best just to be prepared. Hope for the best and plan for the worst.

[Panzer1]

I started march first and it was 65 degrees on Springer. One week later it was a blizzard. ...

Well this year I guessing it must have been in the 30's today, March 1.

Panzer

[CherrypieScout]

March is the most unpredictable month of winter/early spring. I ran yesterday in the 60's in shourts and t-shirt. Today I layered 3 different qicking layers under a light rain jacket, stockings and warm wind proof tights, toboggan and gloves and did not get too warm. The snow was nice too. Should be back to the 70's by Wednesday. I would dress for cold, snow and ice for any start in March.

[Blissful]

Mostly, I don't want to freeze while cooking dinner. I generally would wear a long-sleeve + light fleece top + light nylon rain jacket.

You're gonna be really cold. I'd take an insulated jacket over a fleece until May. Rain jacket does nothing to insulate. Good for wind and maybe rain at camp and that's about it. This week the low here is 12 for 2 nights. That means single digits up in the mtns.

[Blissful]

March is the most unpredictable month of winter/early spring.

April is too.

Actually, nothing is predictable until mid May on the AT.