Time Frame and Likelihood to complete?

[Tuesdays_child]

Hey you all. I've been lurking around whiteblaze for about three months, after deciding semi-spontaneously to tackle the Appalachian Trail this spring. Ya'll are super informative and I love the articles.

That said, I have a question.

From what I've read, typical timeframes for thru-hikes seem to be about 3-6 months. I, however, don't have that time. I'm in the National Guard. I've gotten one drill off, after asking. As such, my time frame is from the day after one drill, through the next month, but I have to back in time for the following one. This leaves me approximately 70 days. I'm taking a week out of that for traveling, ectity ect. so, 63 days.

I think a thru-hike is totally possible in that time frame. I've been practice hiking every other day about five miles through decent elevation with a fifty pound pack(Fifty pounder is just for training purposes. My actual fully shredded out pack comes to a little less than 25 pounds). I've taken a couple of weekends and hit two 25-35 mile days consecutively and felt like I could keep it up afterwards. My first really hardcore gear/mileage run-though is next week, but I have high hopes.

I figure I'll need to hit approximately 35-40 miles a day to finish within my time frame, with few zero days.

Before you ask about enjoying the trail and not rushing, don't. Hehe. I've thought this through, and all I really want out of this is to make the whole thing in one go, spend some time in the woods, and get a decent physical work out from it. I'll have plenty of opportunities in the next few years to savour the woods on slow hikes, but very few to no opportunities for a thru, even a rushed one like this.


That all said, am I completely kidding myself?

I'm in very good shape. I've put the time in planning, preparing, and training physically. This isn't even a completely hardcore goal--I'm not doing anything outrageous.

But ya'll are experts. Can I do this? Will it work? On paper it works, but with the trail and all it's challenges thrown in, do you think it's likely?


Thank you for the time...And opinions.

[Lone Wolf]

give it a shot but you'll most likely not make it

[4eyedbuzzard]

...I'm taking a week out of that for traveling, ectity ect. so, 63 days.
I figure I'll need to hit approximately 35-40 miles a day to finish within my time frame, with few zero days.

That all said, am I completely kidding myself?

I'm in very good shape. I've put the time in planning, preparing, and training physically. This isn't even a completely hardcore goal--I'm not doing anything outrageous.

I ain't no expert, but

1) Go for it. Why not if it's what you want to try to do. You aren't hurting anybody else by trying. Either way, you'll learn something.

2) I'd say it's pretty downright hardcore and as close to outrageous as you can get unless you're an ultrarunner with experience on mountain trails(those guys are, well... hardcore and outrageous). Even if you are though, and especially unsupported (carrying your own gear and resupplying yourself), I think the odds are slim to none.

[karoberts]

What happens when something slows you down? Say you hike a few 15 mile days and then find that it is impossible to finish in your time frame? Will you leave the trail, or keep hiking knowing you can't finish?

If you set yourself up with unrealistic expectations, I think you will find yourself wanting to quit when you do not meet those expectations. And I do think you are underestimating the trail.

[phenimore]

I'm planning on starting in June and I've got an ambitious time frame set up for myself. I'm a non-hiker in great walking shape but I've tried to incorporate some flexibilty to it though. Everything I've read tells me that it's mostly mental. I know that my hike starts the first day on the trail and all my plans mean nothing.
Stay flexible; are you going to be satisfied just by enjoying your trip if you can't make the time you want? If not maybe you need to rethink your options; if I were in your place I would make my goal to be in Hanover, NH with 28 days to get to Katadhin... which might require some other compromises. More power too ya though, what a great way to get to know your ability than to push the limits like that.

[Maddog]

you ain't got a chance in hell! good luck! let me know how that works out for ya! :)

[Slo-go'en]

Good luck kid! To do the trail in 60-70 days you will have to run it. Much easier said then done. Even at a fast walking pace of 3 to 4 miles an hour, that 10 hours of steady walking to do 30 to 40 miles. Every day. With a pack and no support, it is unlikely you can maintain that kind of pace for very long, no matter how good of shape you think your in.

A much better plan is just to take your time and get as far as you get in the time you have, with no set goal as to how far you'll get in that time. Much better for your body and soul.

[max patch]

This is either an Aprils Fools post or the OP is incredibly naive.

[RITBlake]

You'll walk yourself in to the ground, doesn't sound like much fun to me but hell, hike your own hike.

[Pootz]

Its your goal, you should go for it.

It has been done in less than 63 days before. In my opinion you will need to get some support. If you have to do your own resupply it will cost you a lot of time getting into and back out of towns.

Good luck.

[Lone Wolf]

60 days unsupported is the record. shoot to beat that

[Tuesdays_child]

Dang, that was sobering. Thank you all! I have to admit I'm rather more motivated to tackle this and I appreciate the cold (in a good way) water. That sounds sarcastic, but I don't mean it to be. None of you came out and straight up said that it's impossible, so now I've kinda got to do this. Nothing like being told you aren't likely to make it to spark some drive, right? (From what I've read around here, most Thru-hikers seem to be the type of 'free-thinker' (aka obstinate SOBs) that would understand that...)

So, on a related note, I've seen a /lot/ about male hikers who have done the trail in similar time periods (or less) than what I'm proposing, but where do the girls stand in that? I haven't seen anything about hard timeframes and femmes, but I don't know if I haven't looked in the right places..?

Also:


Lone Wolf
give it a shot but you'll most likely not make it

XD Thanks for the reply. I was kind of hoping you would, I've liked reading your replies on the threads.


4eyedbuzzard
1) Go for it. Why not if it's what you want to try to do. You aren't hurting anybody else by trying. Either way, you'll learn something.

2) I.

1.) I like the learn something bit. It won't hurt my feelings to for the mountains to kick my ass. There's something a little aweinspiring and poetic in getting your ass kicked by a mountain.
2.) I'm not an ultrarunner, although I run Marathons and train on some pretty decent WV 'hills'...


karoberts What happens when something slows you down? Say you hike a few 15 mile days and then find that it is impossible to finish in your time frame? Will you leave the trail, or keep hiking knowing you can't finish?


If I get in a little bit and realize there's no way in the firepit that I can finish, I'm planning on at least making it to Harper's Ferry. No way am I giving up the two months I have to be out there just because a schedule doesn't work out.

Underestimation noted, however. Thank you.


phenimore I'm planning on starting in June and I've got an ambitious time frame set up for myself. I'm a non-hiker in great walking shape but I've tried to incorporate some flexibilty to it though. Everything I've read tells me that it's mostly mental. I know that my hike starts the first day on the trail and all my plans mean nothing.

I like the way you think! I start in May, but maybe I'll run into you. I agree about the mental part-- and that for all the prepping we do, who really knows, right? Good luck on your hike..


droptopbenz you ain't got a chance in hell! good luck! let me know how that works out for ya! :)

Thanks for the motivation. ;o) And I will. Even if it means coming back here and going 'Ok, so yeah, you guys were totally completely right and the trail kicked my arse.'


Slo-go'en Good luck kid! To do the trail in 60-70 days you will have to run it. Much easier said then done. Even at a fast walking pace of 3 to 4 miles an hour, that 10 hours of steady walking to do 30 to 40 miles. Every day. With a pack and no support, it is unlikely you can maintain that kind of pace for very long, no matter how good of shape you think your in.


Thanks for the reply. I've got a lot of respect for you from your posts around whiteblaze. Gee, I sound like a stalker or somemat, I swear I'm not. Just been reading up on the trails for a while around here. XD

I plan on 14 hour days, two mile per hour pace, most of the time. I've timed myself on our local trails with my 50 pound pack, and although the climbs/elevation aren't as hardcore and the time period shorter, my usual not pushing it pace is around 3 mph. I love being out and walking, and with a lighter pack and fresh territory (hard to stay motivated to keep going when you have the trail memorized, like here at home.) I should be able to it.

But I appreciate the warning, and you're probably right.


max patch This is either an Aprils Fools post or the OP is incredibly naive.

*puts a check mark beside Incredibly naive* But I'm gonna have fun with it.


RITBlake You'll walk yourself in to the ground, doesn't sound like much fun to me but hell, hike your own hike.

It does to me though. I plan on being completely exhausted, worn out, and used up by the end...to me, that's a fair bit exhilarating. Probably just 21 stupidity talking.




Thanks for the replies, motivation and the like.

[Tuesdays_child]

Lone Wolf
60 days unsupported is the record. shoot to beat that

....See, I like you. You're awesome. Totally awesome. XD Even if that was sarcastic.


Pootz Its your goal, you should go for it.

It has been done in less than 63 days before. In my opinion you will need to get some support. If you have to do your own resupply it will cost you a lot of time getting into and back out of towns.

Good luck.

Thank you! I've thought about support, but none of my friends/family are really capable of even having the time to tackle any of the trail with me, much less run support. I do have people who are going to mail drop me stuff, in the case I decide to follow that more than I'm doing currently.

[Lone Wolf]

no disrespect. do you have any long distance hiking or trail running experience? i've spent a lot of time with speed hikers and ultra runners. they're a different breed. 35+ miles a day unsupported ain't easy. you planning north or south? south is easier

[Tuesdays_child]

My long distance hiking caps out at around 250 miles in one go so far. Going to try and break that next week on a 300 miler, following the mileage plan I want to keep for the trail.

I was planning on going Northbound, originally, but now I'm a little torn. I like the idea of SOBO, but I'm afraid that starting in may would put me in the midst of the thickest SOBO pack. I'm not really sure I want to do that. (Although theoretically, I'd pass the worst of it up, I suppose?)

[Lone Wolf]

Most SOBOs leave late June-early July

[Tuesdays_child]

I was under the impression they left May/June. Interesting.

[Tuesdays_child]

But wait. I've seen this posted so many places, that a SOBO is shorter/easier than NOBO. That has yet to make sense to me. It's the same trail, yes? Same mountains.

[Blissful]

With SOBO you encounter the most difficult section of trail first - southern Maine and the Whites. I beg to differ that it's easier.

In order to accompish your goal of 35-40 miles, you'll have to trail run for sure and be used to marathon days. And probably need support. It's a lot easier to talk about it online than to be out there experiencing it. The AT is difficult.

But you're young. If you want, go for it.

[CrumbSnatcher]

springer mt. to baxter peak(katahdin) 2,178.3 miles
baxter peak(katahdin) to springer mt. 2,178.3 miles

[Slo-go'en]

Well, doing a SOBO, once you get through Maine, the rest will seem pretty easy.
Early June is a typical SOBO start, you got to wait for the snow to melt, the trails to dry out and the rivers to receed.

Male, female, I don't think it matters. Long legs helps. Females might have slight advantage in stamina and pain endorence. Being young helps too.

Once again, good luck. Let us all know how it works out. We often see posts from people saying thier going to do a fast hike, then we never hear from them again.

[gravityman]

But wait. I've seen this posted so many places, that a SOBO is shorter/easier than NOBO. That has yet to make sense to me. It's the same trail, yes? Same mountains.

It ain't shorter, that's for sure! Although technically a SOBO is slightly down hill as you 'officially' start at 5267 ft (Katahdin) and end at 3780 ft (sprniger), so it's down hill from start to finish going sobo, but with a lot of up and down between! Of course you also have to get to the start and off from the finish...

I think from the 'easier' side, this mainly applies to fast hikers. Their chances of success are usually determined by how they do in Maine/whites. So, from that standpoint, you will know a lot earlier in to the hike if you have a chance of finishing within your time frame once you get through the whites.

Gravity

[Marta]

A little info on the women's supported record, set last year:

http://www.blueridgenow.com/article/20080819/NEWS/125254

The women's unsupported record is quite old, and probably "soft," as records go.

There are people on Whiteblaze who can offer solid information on speed hiking, Lone Wolf being one of them. Two people who are rarely or never on Whiteblaze, but who helped Jennifer achieve her record, are Warren Doyle and David Horton.

One piece of advice Warren Doyle offered Jennifer was to try for a record on a shorter trail first, to see how it felt physically and mentally to push herself like that. She speed-hiked the Long Trail, decided she liked it, and went for the AT record last year.

I know you're not talking absolute record attempt, but when you drop under three months, you're edging into the Extreme Hike category, IMO.

Good luck with whatever you decide.

[Dogwood]

You will have to fly at an Andrew Skurka type pace to pull that off, but it's not impossible. I wonder if you fully realize what you will be attempting? Which leads me to ask why do you want to hike? Just to say you pulled off a 70 day AT thru-hike? Why not choose a large chunk and come back to finish within, say, a yr. You will get to experience more of the trail and still pull off a thru-hike. This eliminates the logistics, hurried time frame, and loss of connection with the thru-hiking experience. Like Sly said on another thread, "thru-hiking isn't just about hiking."

[Lone Wolf]

But wait. I've seen this posted so many places, that a SOBO is shorter/easier than NOBO. That has yet to make sense to me. It's the same trail, yes? Same mountains.

it's the same distance but easier on the body. you knock the toughest 400 miles out of the way first while you're fresh whereas a NOBO is finishing pretty much physically spent

[Dogwood]

Additionally, being in GOOD(whatever that means) shape is NOT necessarily the same as being in thru-hiker shape. Doing 2-3 25-30 mile days(even with the heavy pack) is not exactly the same as going week after week, 2 months in a row, doing 35-40 mile days. Not trying to piss on your parade, but I want to make sure you consider what you will attempt, your level of thru-hiking experience and how that plays into what you will attempt, and what you may be sacrificing in order to achieve a 70 day AT thru-hike. I'm not saying you will not do it(I wish you all the best), but there is a good reason why so many who attempt a thru-hike of the AT don't make it all the way. And, you will only be making it that much harder/different/challenging/difficult if you attempt to complete a thru-hike in the time frame of 70 days. There exists a romance to hiking the AT that doesn't always match that in real life(doing it) or a desire to check off thru-hiking the AT as a goal accomplished that seems to be a lot harder for most to accomplish in real life than actually talking about it!

[Tuna]

Wow, that's a serious challenge you've set yourself. Best of luck.

How good are you at being alone? Fourteen hour days, week after week of fast hiking. Are you content enough with your own company to get it done?

[4eyedbuzzard]

May wouldn't be most peoples choice for hiking or running in ME. Mud, snow, flooded streams, and bugs. Just more obstacles to slow you down. And there really aren't enough SOBO's to make much of a pack in comparison to NOBO's. Most SOBO's leave between mid June and mid July, maybe 200 or so, and just like NOBO's a lot will drop out along the way, although not as many by percentage. For whatever reason they tend to be a hardier bunch. SOBO in May you will have plenty of company though all the way through New England--from black flies.

[4eyedbuzzard]

it's the same distance but easier on the body. you knock the toughest 400 miles out of the way first while you're fresh whereas a NOBO is finishing pretty much physically spent

Makes me think about something that hasn't been completely brought up yet. A "hike" (run) like he's talking creates a lot of physical trauma with little to no time off to heal/repair muscle and tissue. Add to that the nutritional issues that will factor in. Beating the snot out of your body for 60 days straight without rest is going to take its toll even on someone in superb shape.

[Blissful]

Makes me think about something that hasn't been completely brought up yet. A "hike" (run) like he's talking creates a lot of physical trauma with little to no time off to heal/repair muscle and tissue. Add to that the nutritional issues that will factor in. Beating the snot out of your body for 60 days straight without rest is going to take its toll even on someone in superb shape.


That's why a 21 yr old can do it, not like us oldie moldies. :)

[4eyedbuzzard]

That's why a 21 yr old can do it, not like us oldie moldies. :)

Moldie, eh? I thought I was just turnin' green with envy. Oldie and moldie, huh. :( GTG, time for my Geritol and Prune juice martini.

[Alli]

Why not just wait til your contract's up and take the time then? That's what I'm doing.