View Full Version : Only 650 thru hikers this year?
Tha Wookie
04-20-2009, 12:23
Now I know that many many people don't register in the book at Amicalola SP, but I have been told by staff at Walasi-Yi that there have been only 650 folks in the books for thru-hiking this year.
I thought that many people would be ready, especially considering the collapse of the economy. Maybe all those jobless people need a year to get ready?
But besides not being a lot more, there seem to be a lot LESS...... (although I don't know the number from last year)
what gives?
Lone Wolf
04-20-2009, 13:03
the jobless ones out here are freeloading quite a bit
well like my industry building choppers,its been real slow its like hike or bike unless you invested in oil,our heat bill was crazy like most the gov had surcharge of 60 bucks on top of are reg bill plus the storms we had but to be honest people dont have the cash,really enjoyed your west coast web,been to most places you hiked.ky
The overall amount of people who backpack are going down considerably. I am not surprised that thru-hiking numbers are starting to reflect this reality. I predicted that a few years back.
See post three:
http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php?t=14841&highlight=backpacking+skurka
The Solemates
04-20-2009, 13:51
The overall amount of people who backpack are going down considerably. I am not surprised that thru-hiking numbers are starting to reflect this reality.
really? are there studies showing this?
really? are there studies showing this?
I think this has been the trend since the late 70's, early 80's.
really? are there studies showing this?
I added the link just before you posted, but yes.
Anecdotally, park officials also report that reservations for backcountry camp sites are going down as well.
http://www.newwest.net/index.php/main/article/8349
The cold reality is that besides having LESS time on our hands to get out and find ourselves in a world of greater electronic distractions, most increasingly-urban Americans find the idea of trudging dozens of miles with a heavy pack toward remote campsights to be utterly unappealing. In a word, backbreaking.
..and that about sums it up. :)
There may be a temp bump with people looking for cheap activities in the down turned economy, but I think it is a long term trend. Society, as a whole, wants a Disney experience. Backpacking ain't.
(..and I don't think lightweight backpacking is going to "save" backpacking...)
Pedaling Fool
04-20-2009, 14:21
I think the large numbers were a result of Bryson's book (I know, not an original theory), and basically I agree with Mags on the whole when it comes to outside activities, esp. hiking.
Ox97GaMe
04-20-2009, 15:07
not sure where your source is coming from, but I can tell you that the numbers I am seeing is above that of last year and the year before. Maybe hikers are getting better informed about where hiker feeds are at, but I find that hard to believe, as most of my trail magic events are rather spontaneous. Im feeding about 15% more hikers this year than past years. Hard to believe there are significantly fewer hikers based on that.
Now I know that many many people don't register in the book at Amicalola SP, but I have been told by staff at Walasi-Yi that there have been only 650 folks in the books for thru-hiking this year.
I thought that many people would be ready, especially considering the collapse of the economy. Maybe all those jobless people need a year to get ready?
But besides not being a lot more, there seem to be a lot LESS...... (although I don't know the number from last year)
what gives?
My thought would be that some people may be unwilling to quit their jobs and go hiking with the economy so bad.
I wonder how many people on average have they had in their "Books" the last few years? Is the number of hikers down or are less people stopping at Walasi-Yi. It will be interesting to see the numbers at Harpers Ferry.
Blissful
04-20-2009, 16:12
I know a lot appear to be sectioning this year it seems. We saw all college-aged thrus out there last week, and having fun.
Tha Wookie
04-20-2009, 16:44
The overall amount of people who backpack are going down considerably. I am not surprised that thru-hiking numbers are starting to reflect this reality. I predicted that a few years back.
See post three:
http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php?t=14841&highlight=backpacking+skurka
I hate to burst the bubble nastrodomos but I have yet to see a peer-reviewed study or one with solid methods that provides evidence that backpacking or hiking on a whole has decreased. Industry studies are notoriously subjective with potential customers usually being the population of interest, which leaves out many people from the sample.
In the only nation-wide study on recreation that properly samples the US population (National Survey on Recreation and the Environment or NSRE for short), conducted by the Forest Service's Research Station in Athens, GA. It found that recreational walking has increased more than twofold up to 2003 and backpacking saw almost a 100% increase, even when compared to early 80's data. I doubt that less people are hiking, but they might be hiking more places (the AT is old hat for a lot of people and they are seeking more "out there" experiences, that no doubt maintain less data on their use).
Many park numbers have gone down in the past decade, but not because there are actually less users. It's because they used inadequate methods that systematically counted more than what was actually coming (like the practice of counting a visitor upon arrival AND departure, which doubles the figure in one swoop). The NSRE was created to provide a single methodology for areas since most data didn't synch and it was impossible to compare or aggregate with all the inconsistencies.
So maybe less people are simply avoiding Amicalola. i know I didn't sign it on my thru. Maybe more people are simply going straight to Springer, because sites like this tell you how to do it when before it was more mysterious.
I do know one thing for certain. Until there is a survey that adequately counts on the AT and other trails, all we do for now is speculate. Which is fun.
:D
Tha Wookie
04-20-2009, 16:48
My thought would be that some people may be unwilling to quit their jobs and go hiking with the economy so bad.
I wonder how many people on average have they had in their "Books" the last few years? Is the number of hikers down or are less people stopping at Walasi-Yi. It will be interesting to see the numbers at Harpers Ferry.
That's interesting. Sure, they aren't sure if there will be jobs when they get back so it's harder to risk it with everyone looking to cut the fat.
The number given from the Walasi-Yi guys weren't from the store. They were from the book at Amicalola, the first register if you do the approach trail. Annual numbers are often taken from there and then compared to the Harper's Ferry numbers.:D
superman
04-20-2009, 16:59
I think there was a spike of hikers in 2000 when I hiked. I'm planning on re-hiking the AT in 2010 so you can anticipate another spike. Why, because I'm so damn entertaining that apparently people come from far and wide just to hike with me. :rolleyes:
neighbor dave
04-20-2009, 17:14
I think there was a spike of hikers in 2000 when I hiked. I'm planning on re-hiking the AT in 2010 so you can anticipate another spike. Why, because I'm so damn entertaining that apparently people come from far and wide just to hike with me. :rolleyes:
:-? is Lois going too?;)
Lies. Damn Lies and statistics.
Wook, just go to any outdoor store, pick up an outdoor magazine and go to any park.
The ads in outdoor magazines are aimed at people doing done-in-a-day activities. If there were more backpackers, there would be more ads for backcountry use. Advertisers ain't stupid...they sell schwag people want. Likewise with retailers.
People are backpacking less. Simply put. (Notice I said BACKPACKING. Day hiking has bumped up a bit for casual users.. Again, going with the trend for "done in a day activities".)
I'll counter your lies, damn lies and statistics with my own lies, damn lies and statistics:
""Camping is one of those areas that is a concern to us," said Butch Street, a statistician for the National Park Service who compiles the figures each year. "That is definitely going down. "
http://www.denverpost.com/search/ci_4391721
So the National Park Service disagrees with you.
(and so on : http://www.google.com/search?q=decline+backcountry+use&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a)
My research and gut instinct (based on what I've seen with my own two eyes, the way society is heading, etc.) tell me backcountry use is down.
I suspect that is also why the NPS is now allowing MTBs on a case-by-case basis. Less backcountry users are up in arms about it..but more people mountain bike.
I'll say it again: Backcountry use is going down (backpacking, mutliday climbing, camping) , front country activities have been blossoming. (MTBiking, trail running, hiking, climbing, etc.)
Rather than continue the pissing contest, let us just say we have different views.
Lone Wolf
04-20-2009, 18:47
Now I know that many many people don't register in the book at Amicalola SP, but I have been told by staff at Walasi-Yi that there have been only 650 folks in the books for thru-hiking this year.
I thought that many people would be ready, especially considering the collapse of the economy. Maybe all those jobless people need a year to get ready?
But besides not being a lot more, there seem to be a lot LESS...... (although I don't know the number from last year)
what gives?
cool. less hippies i gotta kick when they come thru town
traildust
04-20-2009, 20:10
I hate to burst the bubble nastrodomos but I have yet to see a peer-reviewed study or one with solid methods that provides evidence that backpacking or hiking on a whole has decreased. Industry studies are notoriously subjective with potential customers usually being the population of interest, which leaves out many people from the sample.
In the only nation-wide study on recreation that properly samples the US population (National Survey on Recreation and the Environment or NSRE for short), conducted by the Forest Service's Research Station in Athens, GA. It found that recreational walking has increased more than twofold up to 2003 and backpacking saw almost a 100% increase, even when compared to early 80's data. I doubt that less people are hiking, but they might be hiking more places (the AT is old hat for a lot of people and they are seeking more "out there" experiences, that no doubt maintain less data on their use).
Many park numbers have gone down in the past decade, but not because there are actually less users. It's because they used inadequate methods that systematically counted more than what was actually coming (like the practice of counting a visitor upon arrival AND departure, which doubles the figure in one swoop). The NSRE was created to provide a single methodology for areas since most data didn't synch and it was impossible to compare or aggregate with all the inconsistencies.
So maybe less people are simply avoiding Amicalola. i know I didn't sign it on my thru. Maybe more people are simply going straight to Springer, because sites like this tell you how to do it when before it was more mysterious.
I do know one thing for certain. Until there is a survey that adequately counts on the AT and other trails, all we do for now is speculate. Which is fun.
:D
Yeh! What he said. Besides is less a bad thing for the A.T. Many other trails across the nation - long trails and short are seeing a surge. The Red River Gorge in Ky and the trails that go through there are seeing an increase.
RITBlake
04-20-2009, 21:11
My thought would be that some people may be unwilling to quit their jobs and go hiking with the economy so bad.
I fit this profile 100%
The ads in outdoor magazines are aimed at people doing done-in-a-day activities. If there were more backpackers, there would be more ads for backcountry use. Advertisers ain't stupid...they sell schwag people want. Likewise with retailers.
I see lots of ads for tents. That's not a done-in-a-day item. Granted, I don't see lots of ads for backpacks, but I've got to wonder about all those tent ads with declining campers and backpackers.
Not saying I disagree with you necessarily, but I do find your logic a bit simplistic. I'd place my bet closer to Wook's logic, that the market is growing, maybe slowly, but morphing in a way where the industry standards of weights and measures are slow to adapt.
4eyedbuzzard
04-20-2009, 21:18
It costs both time and money to thru-hike. A bad economy hits hikers too. It's a discretionary expenditure. Recreational activities of all kinds are down.
[quote=scope;824571 that the market is growing, maybe slowly, but morphing in a way where the industry standards of weights and measures are slow to adapt.[/quote]
Megan Davis, spokeswoman for the Boulder-based Outdoor Industry Association, said the outdoor market is changing but remains strong.
People are seeking outdoor activities that take less time, are easy to learn and can be done close to home, Davis said.
Snowshoeing and trail-running have become more popular over the past eight years, while overnight backpacking has fallen in favor, she said.
Mike Foley, spokesman for nationwide outdoor-gear retailer REI, said the industry is closely watching the youth market.
http://extras.mnginteractive.com/live/media/site36/2006/0924/20060924_111352_cd25endofcamp_400.jpg
I think most people on a site dedicated to long distance backpacking really don't like to think otherwise.
SHRUG. . I wish it was different, but I think you are all incorrect about this dynamic swing in backcountry outdoor use. Time well tell I suppose if I am wrong, or if there is this huge upswing in backpacking vs other activities. You have a more optimistic outlook than I have...and seem to read the retail sales differently than I do.
ps. Ads for tents? Really? In magazines other than BACKPACKER? (Which now has quite a few sections for day hiking? I am sure they put in day hiking articles because so many people now backpack instead of dayhiking. :D)
BTW: Here is an article from 2007 which essentially says tent and sleeping bag sales are falling. Your example is wrong it appears: http://www.getoutdoors.com/goblog/index.php?/archives/1699-SGMA-Release-Industry-Sales-Figures-Camping-Officially-Dead.html
...and that's about it from me (otherwise I am repeating myself).
Ladytrekker
04-21-2009, 00:12
I kayak more than hike, and for the last two years have been kayaking all over north and central florida. I camp on most of these trips and do alot of primitive kayak/camping trips, my point is that there seems to be kayaks and kayak camping groups in abundance I have seen it grow tremendously in the last two years. Alot of the kayakers I have met are also hikers and/or backpackers. So, I think that alot of people are diversifying their activities, not necessarily switching over but adding the paddling and cutting back on their hiking. I have met several AT alumnis while kayaking. I have also noticed an increase in tent camping this year which I am really glad to see and by the opening of outfitters and all the ones on the internet I really think times are good for them right now. Once you have your gear you can vacation anywhere for practically anywhere and I would much rather camp than hotel it any day of the week. But thats just me.
This is just my own personal observance.
River Runner
04-21-2009, 00:23
What I've heard from various park officials matches what Mags says - more day use visitors, and less backpackers and overnight campers. Local/state park use seems to be growing, probably thanks to last summer's high gas prices when many decided to vacation at/near home instead of traveling to distant places.
freefall
04-21-2009, 01:38
What I've heard from various park officials matches what Mags says - more day use visitors, and less backpackers and overnight campers. Local/state park use seems to be growing, probably thanks to last summer's high gas prices when many decided to vacation at/near home instead of traveling to distant places.
I'm with Mags on this one as well. Over the past, say 10 years, I can say I have seen fewer people out backpacking and more out day-hiking. But it can be a good thing. There may be more people hiking but at night, you have the place to yourself!
Where does interest in backpacking originate? I developed mine in the boy scouts. According to the census, boy scout membership in the 11-13 year old line in the link below peaked in the late 60's to early 70's and has remained relatively flat since the mid-80's.
http://www.allcountries.org/uscensus/443_boy_scouts_and_girl_scouts_membership.html
My own experiences as an adult leader the past years is that scouts today do more car camping than backpacking than they did say 20-30 years ago. This is pure anecdotal evidence from talking to other leaders, but it rings true to me. I have no idea how this relates to the declining backpacking/overnighter trends. Is it simply mirroring overall trends or part of the cause of the trend?
I think Tin Man is on to something.
My own experiences as an adult leader the past years is that scouts today do more car camping than backpacking than they did say 20-30 years ago. This is pure anecdotal evidence from talking to other leaders, but it rings true to me. I have no idea how this relates to the declining backpacking/overnighter trends. Is it simply mirroring overall trends or part of the cause of the trend?
Even 20 years ago all we really did was car camp.
Where does interest in backpacking originate? I developed mine in the boy scouts. According to the census, boy scout membership in the 11-13 year old line in the link below peaked in the late 60's to early 70's and has remained relatively flat since the mid-80's.
http://www.allcountries.org/uscensus/443_boy_scouts_and_girl_scouts_membership.html
My own experiences as an adult leader the past years is that scouts today do more car camping than backpacking than they did say 20-30 years ago. This is pure anecdotal evidence from talking to other leaders, but it rings true to me. I have no idea how this relates to the declining backpacking/overnighter trends. Is it simply mirroring overall trends or part of the cause of the trend?My involvement in backpacking started at Camp Greenville back in 1980 when I was 11. When we were signing up my parents asked me which program I wanted, regular 2 week camp, or the backcountry backpacking program that had a limited enrollment. I liked the what the backpacking program had to say. Took it for 2 years straight and for 2 sessions in a row on the second year. I was hooked. Without that early experience, I doubt I would have taken in up. Honestly, it's one of my favorite memories and has given me a lifelong hobby that never gets old. Start 'em young!
superman
04-21-2009, 08:25
:-? is Lois going too?;)
I certainy hope so. When I'm not leaping over tall mountains in a single bound it's good to have someone to brag to.:rolleyes:
Only anecdotal . . . but Rodman (Mountain & Valley Shuttle Service, www.mvshuttle.com (http://www.mvshuttle.com)) has been getting a lot more inquiries from section hikers, newbies, weekenders, etc. than in previous years. These calls are logged and put into the system so he can reference the conversations when they call back to make an actual reservation.
The experienced hikers in particular are planning longer sections than in years past. For example, instead of hiking one or two sections of SNP, many are asking about going the whole distance of SNP, or even further up to Harpers Ferry or beyond.
Actual reservation numbers so far are slightly ahead (tho going longer distances) as last year but we think that will increase even more as folks solidify their plans. Some are, predictably, shopping around for price more than in the past. That's good— gas prices are down so he has been able to lower prices a little.
Should know more in a month or so. But up until now there's some evidence of more section hikers actually hiking and going longer distances—with significantly greater interest than a year ago. Not sure how or why this relates to the overall economy and job situation, just sayin'.
There are also more people wanting to do SNP's Lodge-to-Lodge Hike that was featured in the ATC's magazine a couple years ago. In fact, a separate website and marketing effort will be launched soon to promote that even more... www.HikeLodge2Lodge.com (http://www.HikeLodge2Lodge.com) . (Still being tweaked, but take a peek.) This is a completely separate niche that is probably a bit off-topic here, but it's somewhat interesting that even without promo there is more interest this year in that kind of relatively inexpensive vacation by folks who want to hike part of the AT but don't want to carry weight or camp in the woods.
As for thru-hikers, we have no way of knowing: they are not really that much a part of Rodman's overall business and typically they only need rides into town anyway—calling at the last minute if they can't get a ride by hitching. Toward the end of June some thru-hikers do call asking about shuttling ahead to catch up with friends, go into DC for the 4th of July, getting better positioned to finish, etc. There have only been a few thru's signed into registers at SNP overnight huts as of now—kinda early for them this far north.
My involvement in backpacking started at Camp Greenville back in 1980 when I was 11. When we were signing up my parents asked me which program I wanted, regular 2 week camp, or the backcountry backpacking program that had a limited enrollment. I liked the what the backpacking program had to say. Took it for 2 years straight and for 2 sessions in a row on the second year. I was hooked. Without that early experience, I doubt I would have taken in up. Honestly, it's one of my favorite memories and has given me a lifelong hobby that never gets old. Start 'em young!
I got hooked on Backpacking at age 11, when I saw a slide show on Backpacking at Philmont Scout Ranch in NM. After many local trips and three years went by, I had the time of my youth when I made the trek to Philmont. Later, I joined my boys scout troop as an adult leader in charge of the Outdoors Program primarily to get them outdoors away from the car camping. Our biggest trip yet earlier this month, was a rainy, snowy, cold, water over the boots slosh along the AT in CT. I was worried the cold and miserable conditions would be a big turn-off, but the boys and other adults persevered and are looking forward to future, longer trips. Start 'em young for sure, but you can also convert your adult friends too. I have converted a few, but my biggest conversion was my brother who has logged over 600 miles with me now.
SlowLightTrek
04-21-2009, 09:27
cool. less hippies i gotta kick when they come thru town
You sure they are all hippies? Maybe they forgot to bring their razor.
You sure they are all hippies? Maybe they forgot to bring their razor.
there are no hippies, just wannabes
The overall amount of people who backpack are going down considerably. I am not surprised that thru-hiking numbers are starting to reflect this reality. I predicted that a few years back.
See post three:http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php?t=14841&highlight=backpacking+skurka
Did my Federal TAX dollars PAY FOR THIS STUDY?
hehehehehe:D
see ya'll out there May 2-14 NOBO Harpers Ferry,WV to Swatara Gap,PA
(w/ "Jigsaw" & "Model-T")
double d
04-21-2009, 10:23
I think one of the contributing variables to the decline of hiking/overnight backpacking trips is the fact that a lot less young people (under 15 years old) are socialized to the outdoors and thus do not enjoy outdoor leisure events. Such as: with so many young people since 1990 (when I was 22) growing up with a close association with technology as their first source of leisure (such as the internet and computor games), "roughing it" is seen as something they are not interested in.
Also, families do not spend much time together during the average week, let alone having their family go on a week long "camping trip" at some national park or forest. When I was a kid, my family went to Wisconsin on camping trips, which introduced many folks to a world outside of sidewalks, neigborhood parks and four lane highways. Then something wonderful happened, we got hooked at a young age that the outdoors offered us something we didn't have in our daily lives (which for many of us, is still true). I guess many young and obese kids playing Madden 08' football all summer long do not have the ability nor desire to hump a 35 pound backpack anymore as part of their summer vacation.
Did my Federal TAX dollars PAY FOR THIS STUDY?
hehehehehe:D
No, your Federal tax dollars are earmarked for my retirement check. So far this year you have paid for a month-long trip to Central America for me, a new backpack, a new cellphone, and a new laptap.
In May you are paying for a week in Quebec and Jean Cartier NP, and trip down to Trails days (Thanks!).
This summer I want a new GPS to bring with me to Texas, and I want to do the Northville Placid trail again, so I would appreciate it if you would work some OT. I could use the extra. Thanks!
I think one of the contributing variables to the decline of hiking/overnight backpacking trips is the fact that a lot less young people (under 15 years old) are socialized to the outdoors and thus do not enjoy outdoor leisure events. Such as: with so many young people since 1990 (when I was 22) growing up with a close association with technology as their first source of leisure (such as the internet and computor games), "roughing it" is seen as something they are not interested in.
Also, families do not spend much time together during the average week, let alone having their family go on a week long "camping trip" at some national park or forest. When I was a kid, my family went to Wisconsin on camping trips, which introduced many folks to a world outside of sidewalks, neigborhood parks and four lane highways. Then something wonderful happened, we got hooked at a young age that the outdoors offered us something we didn't have in our daily lives (which for many of us, is still true). I guess many young and obese kids playing Madden 08' football all summer long do not have the ability nor desire to hump a 35 pound backpack anymore as part of their summer vacation.
The electronic world may be part of it. Hard to say really. But I don't think 'young and obese kids' explains it all. There are many other factors at work here.
I do know that outdoor sports has become more of a time commitment than when I was a kid. For example, baseball and football programs now pretty much demand kids commit their time, if not most of their summer to the sports with baseball running right into football season. I also know that once you unplug kids from their electronics, they do have fun with outdoor activities, including sports, camping, and backpacking. So, is it less interest from kids or other activities, like sports, or less interest from parents? Or is it just a matter of everyone's lives have become so busy that they just want to do more restful activities and vacations when they do have down time?
leeki pole
04-21-2009, 11:18
I blame parents for not taking time to introduce their children to the outdoors. My college age girls amaze their "big city" friends that they can shoot a rifle, clean a fish and bait a hook. Us older folks are the ones to blame, not the kids.
I blame parents for not taking time to introduce their children to the outdoors. My college age girls amaze their "big city" friends that they can shoot a rifle, clean a fish and bait a hook. Us older folks are the ones to blame, not the kids.
Agreed. But I also see that people's lives are busier than when I was a kid and people are prioritizing other organized activities over doing things on their own.
Yo Mags you have anything more up to date? You're pushing articles several years old.
I blame parents for not taking time to introduce their children to the outdoors. My college age girls amaze their "big city" friends that they can shoot a rifle, clean a fish and bait a hook. Us older folks are the ones to blame, not the kids.
Neither of my parents backpack or day hiked. :-?
All counts we've gotten at Amicalola, Springer, and Neels Gap are actually up this year. If the number Wookie posted seems low, keep in mind Amicalola registrants typically account for about 55-60% of thru-hikers starting at the southern end of the Trail. Some go directly to Springer; some go to Amicalola but do not sign in there. I'll try to post more details later.
Laurie Potteiger
ATC
4eyedbuzzard
04-21-2009, 11:47
Neither of my parents backpack or day hiked. :-?
Neither did mine--didn't even car camp. An uncle introduced me to hiking/backpacking. My friends and I just kind of drifted into hunting and fishing on our own. I've took all of my four hiking and camping as kids. Only one has an interest in hiking as an adult(that is a 25% success rate though). She also likes shooting but not hunting. Another one likes to fish. All four will still go car camping, but only for a weekend or so. It just isn't what everybody wants to do even if they've experienced it.
Yo Mags you have anything more up to date? You're pushing articles several years old.
2005 and 2006 is hardly several yrs old. Maybe just maybe it spiked in 2007 and 2008! :D
/Anyway, the last one was from 2007. At most, less than 1.5 yrs old.
As you probably know, it takes time to research and publish.
FWIW, here is a speech from Jan 2009:
http://www.unbc.ca/assets/continuingstudies/events/nscwinter2009/dave_king.pdf
"But a parks staff person noted there has been a decline in backcountry campers. ..."
(Granted, for Canada...but think Canada and the US have a similar culture in many ways)
I think many people here have rose colored glasses. Others think myself and others are incorrect.
I've already made my point a few times, however If you wish to do your own research, go for it:
http://www.google.com/search?q=decline+backcountry+use&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a
Thanks.
I agree there are so many "new" activities kids get involved with these days. When I was young there was scouts and baseball. Now young boys and girls play one or two sports each season. Too much "organized" fun for my taste.
2005 and 2006 is hardly several yrs old. .
Several equals 3 or more, believe it or not, it's 2009 already!
I thought that was interesting stuff by Mags about the shift to days and weekends.
It would be nice if North Americans could get more vacation time built into their careers.
Not sure if that has changed since the 70s though. College has gotten more expensive though, at least in Canada. Maybe student debts in both countries has forced us to do our recreation in shorter bites while trying to hold down jobs. Less job security might also be a factor, though that does create opportunities between jobs and careers. Not sure.
I think its a marketing thing. :D ;)
( I blame everything on marketing. )
I think most people on a site dedicated to long distance backpacking really don't like to think otherwise.
SHRUG. . I wish it was different, but I think you are all incorrect about this dynamic swing in backcountry outdoor use. Time well tell I suppose if I am wrong, or if there is this huge upswing in backpacking vs other activities. You have a more optimistic outlook than I have...and seem to read the retail sales differently than I do.
ps. Ads for tents? Really? In magazines other than BACKPACKER? (Which now has quite a few sections for day hiking? I am sure they put in day hiking articles because so many people now backpack instead of dayhiking. :D)
BTW: Here is an article from 2007 which essentially says tent and sleeping bag sales are falling. Your example is wrong it appears:
First, let me say that you might try being a little less smug with your arguments. I said nothing about tents being sold, I said I saw a lot of tent ads, the point being that manufacturers typically get aggressive with marketing when market share is going down. They might not go with those ads if the general perception was that there was nothing to be gained, and instead go the cash cow route with their products.
And its was not about me or others being optimistic or not wanting to "face the music" about something we love to do. Certainly there are many of us that would welcome reduced numbers.
It was not my intent to say you were wrong, just offering an opinion of my own which you seemed a little too eager to shoot down. Well, you need to visit this link...
http://www.outdoorindustry.org/research.new.php?action=detail&research_id=72
This is not to say you were wrong in your assessment, but to say that you need to give others a little more consideration. Who knows if these numbers are correct, just like I questioned what you presented. I think, though, that perhaps you were a little overly pessimistic about a hobby which you obviously love.
Now, this research is just about participation. Actual sales info is a little harder to come by, but please keep in mind that data for tent and sleeping bags may not be the best indicator anymore of how sales of backcountry equipment sales are going. Findings seem to indicate a rebound in backpacking, especially in my age group.
And to get back to the original question for this thread, I did notice in the results that numbers were way down across many categories, including backpacking, for the 18-24 age group. My assumption is that the percentage of thru hikers in this age group would be high historically, possibly accounting for lower numbers this year, if indeed that is the case.
p.s. not trying to bang on you Mags, just trying to get my point out over what seemed to be some heavy artillery.
gravityman
04-22-2009, 18:20
It's hella-tough to get a car camping spot up near Buena Vista on the weekends, and forget a long weekend. Very hard to get a 10th Mnt hut reservation. Very busy camping on the 4-pass loop in the Maroon Bells. If it's less now than 10 years ago, I'd hate to have seen it 10 years ago. Of course I was on the east coast, but it didn't seems as busy then as it does now...
Gravity
sliderule
04-23-2009, 22:47
Anecdotally, park officials also report that reservations for backcountry camp sites are going down as well.
Maybe that has something to do with the fact that they won't answer the phone!!!
there are no hippies, just wannabes
How many Hippies does it take to change a light bulb?
None, they just wait for it to burn out and then follow it around for 20 years.
Rockhound
04-28-2009, 08:06
Ive heard sensationalist claims that there will be 2....3....even 4 or more times the number of people hiking this year due to this global economic meltdown! Sensationalist BS. The numbers are the same.
oso loco
04-28-2009, 11:02
FWIW, here is a speech from Jan 2009:
http://www.unbc.ca/assets/continuingstudies/events/nscwinter2009/dave_king.pdf
"But a parks staff person noted there has been a decline in backcountry campers. ..."
(Granted, for Canada...but think Canada and the US have a similar culture in many ways)
I think many people here have rose colored glasses. Others think myself and others are incorrect.
I've already made my point a few times, however If you wish to do your own research, go for it:
http://www.google.com/search?q=decline+backcountry+use&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a
Thanks.
Mags -
I'm with you. I first made this point back in 2002. Got about the same reaction then, too. But the disbelief doesn't make it any less true.
Not gonna get into a pissin' match about formal "studies" - especially since most studies these days are done to prove someone's opinion is the "one and only" valid viewpoint. But I've spent the last 3 years hiking and wandering - from Florida to Alaska and back. And I've found a couple things to be consistently true.
First, that backcountry backpacking use has declined, but backcountry horse, mountain bike and ATV use has increased. For several years there was a thruhiking spike on the CDT - but that's declining now, too. PCT usage hasn't changed for the last 10-15 years - but that's largely because the "feeder system" for the PCT (the AT) has been sufficient to keep the PCT numbers up. The AT numbers are obvious - go look at the ATC site. Resistance is futile - argument is just a waste of time - and opinion (like advice) is worth what you pay for it. :D
Hmm - I should also mention that last summer car camping was also way, way down. And gas price were out of sight.
Second - the BS that sometimes gets kicked around about the lack of funding for NPS during the Bush administration is just that --- BS. In the last 3 years, we've driven over 60,000 miles, hiked well over 5,000 miles and visited more than 150 NPS parks and facilities as well as a gaggle of BLM areas. I've seen too much fru-fru "front country" NPS and BLM construction to believe the "under-funding" garbage. And at the same time I've seen a lot more backcountry trail construction and maintenance than I would have expected - certainly more than the supposed "under-funding" would allow. But the point here is that the NPS, like any other organization, puts their money where the bulk of their clients (customers) are - in the front country.
Re: backacking, I got the same story at nearly all those NPS and BLM units - backcountry usage is down, down, down. Doesn't matter whether anyone believes it or likes it - it is what it is. Deal with it. Or rather - enjoy it while you can 'cause the vacuum WILL eventually be filled - by horse, bikes and ATV's.
MoodyBluer
04-28-2009, 11:11
cool. less hippies i gotta kick when they come thru town
:p Assuming you could in your present post-surgery kittenlike state...:)
Phoenix7
04-28-2009, 15:00
Whatever the case I think there will always be enough backpackers throughout the world to support a market for gear. Just do what you enjoy doing and don't worry about it!
Shutterbug
04-28-2009, 17:47
Mags -
..., I got the same story at nearly all those NPS and BLM units - backcountry usage is down, down, down. ..
I realize that my personal experience is only one person's experience, but I have observed that it is getting harder and harder to get backcountry permits in the Grand Canyon and in Mt. Rainier National Park. I certainly have not observed any slacking of demand.
Just yesterday, I spoke to a person who was trying to get a reservation at Phantom Ranch. The wait used to be 5 months and is now a 2 year wait.
On Feb. 1, I was in line when the backcountry permit office opened in the Grand Canyon. I arrived at opening time and was already the 32nd person in line. There certainly didn't seem to be any slacking of demand for permits.
Dearborn
04-28-2009, 19:00
It definitely seems like certain sectors of the outdoor market are increasing while others are decreasing. Of course it would be disappointing to see revenue for park services begin to decline, but thru-hikers are not much of an additive to this anyway since they are generally not parking, buying souvenirs, taking the cog, and what have you. Mountaineering has certainly been getting increasingly popular, especially high-altitude. We also should probably remember that sales revenue for retailers might not be the best measure, since buying new gear often has more to do with expendable cash than amount of recreation (however this is also related to cash flow). Also a poor economy is probably much more of a reason for recent graduates (the entry position folks) to thru-hike as an excuse to "ride out the market storm" than older folks who are more dependant on the job market to stay afloat amidst piling bills. Although I've been setting to do a thru-hike for about eight years (I started backpacking when I was still in the backpack), the economy downturn is certainly an added bonus, since I am missing out on less right now.
I realize that my personal experience is only one person's experience, but I have observed that it is getting harder and harder to get backcountry permits in the Grand Canyon and in Mt. Rainier National Park. I certainly have not observed any slacking of demand.
Just yesterday, I spoke to a person who was trying to get a reservation at Phantom Ranch. The wait used to be 5 months and is now a 2 year wait.
On Feb. 1, I was in line when the backcountry permit office opened in the Grand Canyon. I arrived at opening time and was already the 32nd person in line. There certainly didn't seem to be any slacking of demand for permits.
In my experiences in the Adirondacks, once an area gets mentioned in Backpacker, Outdoors, etc. the traffic to that area goes way up and other, nearby areas, the traffic seems to go down.
[QUOTE=Shutterbug;828471
Just yesterday, I spoke to a person who was trying to get a reservation at Phantom Ranch. The wait used to be 5 months and is now a 2 year wait.[/QUOTE]I wouldn't confuse the Phantom ranch with backpacking in the back country. Most people getting those Phantom Ranch reservations pay people to carry their stuff to and from the Ranch.
oso loco
04-29-2009, 22:52
I wouldn't confuse the Phantom ranch with backpacking in the back country. Most people getting those Phantom Ranch reservations pay people to carry their stuff to and from the Ranch.
Thank you - Phantom Ranch doesn't class as backcountry. More like a dayhike - which is the way we did it a few years ago. Not to say that there isn't backcountry in the Grand Canyon.
Can't speak for Mt Rainier - haven't been there since ... hmm - 2000 maybe? But we'll be there again this year. I'll let you know in Oct/Nov. :)
There are some Parks that haven't suffered much attrition, but overall the NPS numbers for backcountry usage are down about 25% in the last 10 years. That comes from NPS literature that I've got buried in a box right now. The Forest Service reports similar numbers.
If you want backpacking crowds, go to the designated wilderness areas. There are millions of square miles of National Forests that are essentially unpopulated - but if there's a Wilderness area nearby, it'll be downright crowded. Desolation Wilderness in CA, for example, requires a permit for a dayhike. Yeah, it's that crowded. Now you know where all the hikers have gone. But there are still less of them than there were 10 years ago.
Bulldawg
04-29-2009, 23:22
That's interesting. Sure, they aren't sure if there will be jobs when they get back so it's harder to risk it with everyone looking to cut the fat.
The number given from the Walasi-Yi guys weren't from the store. They were from the book at Amicalola, the first register if you do the approach trail. Annual numbers are often taken from there and then compared to the Harper's Ferry numbers.:D
I was in the store a few weeks back and the word was that the numbers in the register there were down just a bit, but not much.
I got hooked on Backpacking at age 11, when I saw a slide show on Backpacking at Philmont Scout Ranch in NM. After many local trips and three years went by, I had the time of my youth when I made the trek to Philmont. Later, I joined my boys scout troop as an adult leader in charge of the Outdoors Program primarily to get them outdoors away from the car camping. Our biggest trip yet earlier this month, was a rainy, snowy, cold, water over the boots slosh along the AT in CT. I was worried the cold and miserable conditions would be a big turn-off, but the boys and other adults persevered and are looking forward to future, longer trips. Start 'em young for sure, but you can also convert your adult friends too. I have converted a few, but my biggest conversion was my brother who has logged over 600 miles with me now.
How do you convert them? I need help with my wife. She thinks she needs two showers per day or she will die (that is a joke for all you people who hang on every word like it is so serious and truth)
I blame parents for not taking time to introduce their children to the outdoors. My college age girls amaze their "big city" friends that they can shoot a rifle, clean a fish and bait a hook. Us older folks are the ones to blame, not the kids.
My 7 and 8 year old love the outdoors. we can't even get home from one day hike or overnighter before they are planning the next one.
All counts we've gotten at Amicalola, Springer, and Neels Gap are actually up this year. If the number Wookie posted seems low, keep in mind Amicalola registrants typically account for about 55-60% of thru-hikers starting at the southern end of the Trail. Some go directly to Springer; some go to Amicalola but do not sign in there. I'll try to post more details later.
One additional bit of anecdotal info... Johnny told me that the number of mail drops sent to Uncle Johnny's Hostel is about double as compared to last year.
How do you convert them? I need help with my wife. She thinks she needs two showers per day or she will die (that is a joke for all you people who hang on every word like it is so serious and truth)
If you met your wife indoors, don't expect to get her outdoors. Instead, just enjoy the peace and quiet. :)
Ox97GaMe
04-30-2009, 07:26
I talked with Morgan from the Asheville regional office this week. He stated that information he has gotten from Springer (Many Sleeps) and Neels Gap (Walasi-Yi Outfitter), indicates the number of thru hikers reported through mid April are up about 20% from last year.
Chaco Taco
05-02-2009, 10:04
Its never going to be a true accurate number. There are those that avoid signing anything, people jump around. At an ATC function a couple of weeks ago they announced that the number reaching Maine was well below the number that is printed on my Baxter camping pass. The numbers are probably slightly up like they are each year. To be honest, we will never really know the true numbers
[quote=Mags;824506]Lies. Damn Lies and statistics.
People are backpacking less. Simply put. (Notice I said BACKPACKING. Day hiking has bumped up a bit for casual users.. Again, going with the trend for "done in a day activities".)
In my number one sport of hunting they, (magazine articles primarily) say the same thing, that there are fewer hunter every year. But every time I go in the woods I am overran by hunters!!! They may be right, but not where I hunt.
Analogman
05-02-2009, 13:25
I think this has been the trend since the late 70's, early 80's.
I imagine a lot of folks who might otherwise take up hiking have been preoccupied with simply keeping their job and paying the bills.
randyg45
05-02-2009, 14:04
Maybe all those jobless people need a year to get ready?
My guess is jobless people need to find jobs.
randyg45
05-02-2009, 14:13
"I think most people on a site dedicated to long distance backpacking really don't like to think otherwise.
SHRUG. . I wish it was different, but I think you are all incorrect about this dynamic swing in backcountry outdoor use. Time well tell I suppose if I am wrong, or if there is this huge upswing in backpacking vs other activities."
It may be selfish of me, but I go in part for the solitude.
Let them stay home.
randyg45
05-02-2009, 14:16
You sure they are all hippies? Maybe they forgot to bring their razor.
Beard does not make the hippie.
As the population ages, which it is, think it's pretty safe to assume that fewer people will be backpacking.
There are seniors on the trail no doubt, but not in abunduance.
Rockhound
05-22-2009, 07:51
One additional bit of anecdotal info... Johnny told me that the number of mail drops sent to Uncle Johnny's Hostel is about double as compared to last year.
Could this have anything to do with Miss Janet moving out of Erwin? As far as thru-hiking numbers go, they are just about the same as the last few years, and I suspect they will be just about the same in the next few years. This is based on the number of hikers that stop at Standing Bear according to Curtis and Maria. Again, every hiker does not stay there, (although they should) just as every hiker does not sign in at Amicolola or Mountain Crossings and many may even miss the guy in the tent near Springer Mt. shelter. (whats his name again?) I suspect he might have the best idea as to increases or decreases.
Earlier this month I needed to change my itinerary in the middle of a hike due to high water levels. I called the backcountry reservation office from the ranger station and explained the need to make a change and where I wanted to go. The reply was that on this short notice I would not get the campsite I wanted, but after checking he came back and said it would be no problem there was no one else at the site even though it was a Saturday. He went on to mention that this is the 3rd time in the past few days that he was able to get someone a site on next to no notice and that never used to happen.
As for the decrease in backpackers, some of it is economical I have no doubt. But I think it is also societal, have you seen the average waistline in WalMart recently? :-?
If you want backpacking crowds, go to the designated wilderness areas. There are millions of square miles of National Forests that are essentially unpopulated - but if there's a Wilderness area nearby, it'll be downright crowded. Desolation Wilderness in CA, for example, requires a permit for a dayhike. Yeah, it's that crowded. Now you know where all the hikers have gone. But there are still less of them than there were 10 years ago.
Branding surely helps. I'm amused at all those here in PA who are interested in the Allegheny National Forest compared to all the empty PA State Forests they drive through to get there. (But the State Forests have higher hills without all the stinking oil wells in the backcountry. ;) )
Just yesterday, I spoke to a person who was trying to get a reservation at Phantom Ranch. The wait used to be 5 months and is now a 2 year wait.
Probably true, but few backpackers in that bunch. When I was there I had breakfast with a family from LA who were spending only one night at the Ranch "because there's just nothing to do down here!":eek:
I wanted to ask them if they knew all the geology, fauna, flora, weather, etc.. or even if they were comfortable just enjoying their surroundings, but I knew they would miss my point. :(
Yes, please! Go back to California as soon as possible!!
the jobless ones out here are freeloading quite a bit
Hey Wolf!...
the 7 or 8 thru-hikers "Jigsaw" & I encountered in PA were not "LOAFING"...they were moving on up the TRAIL @ a fast pace...:D
I think there was a spike of hikers in 2000 when I hiked. I'm planning on re-hiking the AT in 2010 so you can anticipate another spike. Why, because I'm so damn entertaining that apparently people come from far and wide just to hike with me. :rolleyes:
Forget Lois, how about Lana?