View Full Version : 25-30% thru hiker success rate!!!
chefbrian1
06-02-2009, 12:51
The ATC reports success rate for thru hikers at 25-30%. That is amazing considering all of the factors involved. The last time I looked that rate was like 10% with 25-50 percent bailing after the first 100 miles.
What is behind the huge rise in success rate?
Are there less people attempting a thru-hiker?
And are the new thru-hikers fitter and more prepared than there predecessors?
One of the factors noted behind the success rate was the internet because of the great info that is out there. This is a huge pat on the back for whiteblaze.net and the other sites.
With all of the info out there, I think would-be thru-hikers have a better idea of what they are getting into. This may scare off some people while motivating others to be more prepared.
The folks here on this site have hooked me up with great info for my section hike from pearisburg to harpers ferry this year. (thanks)
The other factor that I can attest to is the lightweight backpacking revolution. It is much easier to hike with 20-30 pounds then 45-60 plan and simple. The equipment on my first section hike was all wrong...metal frame pack, heavy tent, canned food and a lot of extra stuff. In fact my pack was so heavy that when I put it on for the first time, I feel over and turtled in my living room.
I watched the film lightweight backpack secrets revealed by Lynne Whelden and forever did it change my hiking.
My current pack with everything including a 3 Lbs tent which I usually left at home (to be a shelter hog) weighs in at 30 LBs with 6 days of food, water, and fuel.
Another factor I have noticed is a building up of hostels/outposts along the way. Mom and Pop hostels and way station are sprouting up all of the time, most in the last 5-10 years. These increased opportunities for a bed, shower, laundry, a mail drop and possible shuttle into town take the edge off and helps make the miles go a little easier.
On my last section hike, I called myself "townzilla" because I was on a town kick. I went in for any stop over opportunities for a sandwich, ice cream and a cola that I could find. The result was a super light pack with 1-2 day supply.
My current trip will have more time in the woods and less at a quicky mart.
With all of this said, the trail itself has not gotten any easier. Even for a hiker on a day hike, the trail is still the trail. The miles are still the miles and up is always up.
Whether you are going for a thru hiker, section hike, or day hike, congrats to you for getting off the couch and experiencing the woods. And congrats for the class of 2009 who finish and congrats for those who don't for trying.
Chef Brian
What is behind the huge rise in success rate?
One of the reasons could possibly be that more people than ever claim they have fully accomplished something when in actuality they have not. IMO, the true success rates for completing a thru-hike are much lower than are claimed. See it over and over again on the long distance trails in this country. Folks, for whatever reason, ego, pride, sense of accomplishment, crossing off a goal, being able to boast, padding a life resume, etc. claim to have done something or possess certain talents or skills when they do not. I've heard more explanations, justifications, and rationalizations about why it was OK to skip major mileage on a thru-hike and still claim that the WHOLE(ENTIRE, ALL, COMPLETE) trail was hiked. Say what you mean and mean what you say.
chefbrian1
06-02-2009, 22:05
Good point dogwood.
I am not sure where the 25-30% number comes from. It did seem rather high. I know the ATC is located in Harpers Ferry where the trail goes through, so I assume that they get to met all of the thru hikers who pass. But the problem is that no one is really tracking anyone and it is on a person honor to be truthful about the miles they hiked.
I have 800 miles left and will not consider myself done until they are done.
Chef Brian
fiddlehead
06-02-2009, 22:19
2 reasons: Google and Whiteblaze
The world is changing.
DuctTape
06-02-2009, 23:15
2 reasons: Google and Whiteblaze
The world is changing.
Gotta disagree. No matter how much info is available before heading to Springer, nothing really prepares you for the reality of keeping at it day after day after day.
Answer = more hostels, more services, more slackpacking, bigger budgets, etc.
DuctTape
06-02-2009, 23:16
Oh yeah, bigger shelters too... ;)
fiddlehead
06-03-2009, 05:11
When i started from Springer, heading to Maine my first time, i had jeans on, a tube tent, and carried canned food.
I doubt you'd see much of that today. (by the way, i only made it DWG that 1st year, but i learned a lot)
ps. i was lighter than most that year ('77)
jersey joe
06-03-2009, 08:32
I highly doubt the completion percentage is as high as 30%. If I had to guess, I'd say that a lot of the people that only make it a week or two are never even counted.
Since there is no requirement for anyone to check in ANYWHERE on the AT, any numbers posted are suspect.
There are more and more shelters, hostels and trail magic.
Take away these three things and you'll soon see those percentages drop.
One other possible explanation:
Many who are counted in 2008's list of completions may be section hikers or others who reported completion in that particular year. As I understand it, they are counted as being part of the "class" for the year that they reported completing the AT in. But in reality, they were part of multiple "classes."
If I'm wrong about this, perhaps Laurie or someone else with inside knowledge from ATC will update, and I'll stand corrected.
In todays age it has become exceptable to stretch the facts. Be it a job application or a thru-hike.
I have met quite a few hikers who have claimed to have done a thru-hike. During our conversation I soon discovered that they had not but were telling everyone that they had.
I think that the world is now made up of a lot of folks who take their dreams and turn them into truism.:-?
Phoenix7
06-03-2009, 10:29
I wonder if there are a lot of thru-hikers who have already completed a thru in the past, so maybe there are many who already know what they're doing?
If anything, our numbers of finishers and the success rate are conservative. The number who claim to thru-hike from Georgia to Maine at Baxter state is considerably higher than those who send in a 2,000-miler application to us. In recent years, when we've had 300+ report to us, Baxter has counted 500+. By the same token, a variety of folks at the southern end have said our estimated drop-out rate is too high (we have gradually been lowering it over the years). In other words, local people at each end would say fewer people start, more people finish--therefore, perhaps higher success rate than we calculate.
In recent years, we've had more accurate counts than some may realize, even if there is still some guesswork. The Georgia A.T. Club hires a full-time caretaker who works on Springer Mountain 10 out of 14 days from the end of February to mid-May. Part of his job is to count hikers of all types. Those counts are shared with us. Amicalola Falls also tracks thru-hikers and sends their counts to us. The Georgia caretaker asks hikers whether they started at Amicalola, just signed in there, or went straight to USFS 42, so it helps us interpret the numbers from Amicalola.
As for Harpers Ferry numbers we collect at ATC, I've never heard anyone estimate we capture fewer than 90-95%.
Neels Gap provides us numbers, but we've relied less on those in recent years. At one time, that's all we've had, and that may be the case again in the future. Some years we get counts from Fontana; most years we get them at the Kennebec.
Section-hikers comprise only 20% of 2,000-milers. Thru-hikers are the vast majority (80%). Some of people who report section-hikes were originally thru-hikers who were not able to complete the A.T. in one year.
Our stats can be found at http://www.appalachiantrail.org/2000milers.
This year, the Springer Mountain caretaker count was up 15%; the Amicalola State Park count was up 19%. In Harpers Ferry the numbers are just about even with last year. More people are starting out, but more people are dropping out. Anecdotally, both trends can be attributed to more people being unemployed: a greater number of people have more time and opportunity to hike, but those people probably don't have enough money set aside to make it all the way. They may also not be as well prepared or as committed to the goal of finishing if the hike was a spur-of-the-moment decision after a job was lost.
Laurie P.
ATC
modiyooch
06-04-2009, 08:32
Thanks Laurie. One thing that needs to be factored in at Harper's Ferry, is the office hours. Basically, it's hard to get an early start out of the town with wanting to stop at the ATC office, and visiting the historical sights, and the food; but I bet there are some on the fast track and leave town before the office is opened. I'm not sure, is their outside registration for these folks? I got into town at dark; but I did hang around for the visit.
MattBuck30
06-04-2009, 08:45
I thru hiked last yr and I cannot tell you how surprised I was at the number of people who claim they are "thru hikers" even after they skip hundreds of miles. I saw many people "blue blaze", "yellow blaze", etc. To me, you are not a thru hiker unless you complete the entire trail BY FOOT. I do not mean to degrade the ppl who do this. It is great that they are getting outdoors and experiencing the wilderness, but to claim that they are thru hikers is unethical. In the end, each person truly knows if they hiked the entire trail or not, and they must live with that on their conscience. I would say the actual thru hiker rate is closer to 10%.
In todays age it has become exceptable to stretch the facts. Be it a job application or a thru-hike.
I have met quite a few hikers who have claimed to have done a thru-hike. During our conversation I soon discovered that they had not but were telling everyone that they had.
I think that the world is now made up of a lot of folks who take their dreams and turn them into truism.:-?
This is an echo of my mind. The sad reality is that in today's America honest takes second place to winning. A growing number of kids are not taught the importance of telling the truth or doing what you say you are going to do. All you have to do is watch the tube and most of the role models are the worst possible examples.
In other words, the end justifies the means, is becoming the norm.
I can't imagine lying about how far I hiked. That's like cheating at solitaire.
max patch
06-04-2009, 16:58
30% = bull*****
callook66
06-05-2009, 06:06
"townzilla"!! haha excellent term for it.
Thanks for the info on how the numbers are arrived at, Laurie.
Before we get too far down the road of attacking other people's hikes:
1) You've overheard someone claiming to be a thru-hiker... So you starting hiking in Georgia and aqua-blazed the Shenandoahs. Now you're in Massachusetts, ordering a meal in a restaurant and the waitress asks if you're thru-hiking. Will you say yes? Of course. The waitress is not interested in a long, philosophical discussion of when a long hike loses its thru-hikiness. Plus, as Lone Wolf has said many times, if you really want to get technical, no one should claim to be a thru-hiker until they're thru.
2) As a southbounder, I ran into a number of NOBOs who were picking up sections they had skipped for reasons of illness, family events scheduled, or whatever. There were quite a few of them. One guy had made a long trip to hike across the bridge over the Interstate near DWG, which had been closed because of flooding when he hiked through earlier. Don't assume everyone who skipped a section is not going to make it up.
3) Don't worry so much about other people's business!!!
Czechtrecker
06-06-2009, 12:46
What is behind the huge rise in success rate?
One of the reasons could possibly be that more people than ever claim they have fully accomplished something when in actuality they have not. IMO, the true success rates for completing a thru-hike are much lower than are claimed. See it over and over again on the long distance trails in this country. Folks, for whatever reason, ego, pride, sense of accomplishment, crossing off a goal, being able to boast, padding a life resume, etc. claim to have done something or possess certain talents or skills when they do not. I've heard more explanations, justifications, and rationalizations about why it was OK to skip major mileage on a thru-hike and still claim that the WHOLE(ENTIRE, ALL, COMPLETE) trail was hiked. Say what you mean and mean what you say.
I was talking with a clerk at EMS about his prep for a future thru-hike when he told me how his girl friend thru-hiked the trail last year. After he told me how quickly she completed it I probed a little deeper and found out that she skipped the southern half of VA and CT and MA because she hiked those sections years previously. That's what? about 20%- 25% of the trail. That's a section hike in my book, but she still claims a 2008 thru-hike.:-?
modiyooch
06-06-2009, 13:09
I was talking with a clerk at EMS about his prep for a future thru-hike when he told me how his girl friend thru-hiked the trail last year. After he told me how quickly she completed it I probed a little deeper and found out that she skipped the southern half of VA and CT and MA because she hiked those sections years previously. That's what? about 20%- 25% of the trail. That's a section hike in my book, but she still claims a 2008 thru-hike.:-?still, this is a notable achievement. She hiked the trail, 70% long distance, and 30% sectional. I think very possibly that she may not be claiming a 2008 thru hike; just a vocabulary slip up for the boyfriend. My goal is just to finish.
30% = bull*****OK, provide the correct percentage and where you referenced it from.:-?
Alright, I saw the can of worms and I opened it. I apologize in advance.:sun
kayak karl
06-06-2009, 13:57
OK, provide the correct percentage and where you referenced it from.:-?
Alright, I saw the can of worms and I opened it. I apologize in advance.:sun
where would you get numbers from? most people i met in the winter don't sign logs or even know what WB is. pasted alot SOBO in jan and feb. im sure all year there are many like this. no number could be accurate.
where would you get numbers from? most people i met in the winter don't sign logs or even know what WB is. pasted alot SOBO in jan and feb. im sure all year there are many like this. no number could be accurate.Exactly my point, Karl. I wasn't picking on max patch, and I'm sorry if it seemed like I was.
bigcranky
06-06-2009, 14:49
I was talking with a clerk at EMS about his prep for a future thru-hike when he told me how his girl friend thru-hiked the trail last year. After he told me how quickly she completed it I probed a little deeper and found out that she skipped the southern half of VA and CT and MA because she hiked those sections years previously. That's what? about 20%- 25% of the trail. That's a section hike in my book, but she still claims a 2008 thru-hike.:-?
She completed her 2000-miler status in 2008. Nothing wrong with that. The ATC doesn't recognize "thru-hikers," only "2000-milers."
Once you've completed the trail, no matter how long it takes, you're a 2000-miler, same as any other.
3) Don't worry so much about other people's business!!!
Hear hear!
Czechtrecker
06-06-2009, 18:42
She completed her 2000-miler status in 2008. Nothing wrong with that. The ATC doesn't recognize "thru-hikers," only "2000-milers."
Once you've completed the trail, no matter how long it takes, you're a 2000-miler, same as any other.
Hear hear!
I thought the original post was about the % of thru-hikers that actually complete the thru-hike and that 30% seems high. I'm just saying that one reason could be that if section hikers are claiming they thru-hiked, that could be one reason for a higher percentage.
Are you saying there is no difference between a section hike and thru-hike?
kayak karl
06-06-2009, 18:52
Exactly my point, Karl. I wasn't picking on max patch, and I'm sorry if it seemed like I was.
didn't think you were. think of the young adults that have had to move back in with their parents, older people needing to move in with their children. are they on the homeless list. NO. numbers are only as accurate as the data found.
This is one of those statistics can prove anything deals.:rolleyes: At best these numbers represent a good guess, and BTW, the trail has become much easier over the years, unless, of course!:D, you are trying to remember 50 years ago as you hike along as an eighty year old!:-? The actual figures are that only 10% of people who claim to be thru-hikers really are!;)
bigcranky
06-06-2009, 21:03
Are you saying there is no difference between a section hike and thru-hike?
Am I saying that? No. I'm saying that the ATC only recognizes "2000 milers" and they don't care how long it takes to hike all those miles.
I was talking with a clerk at EMS about his prep for a future thru-hike when he told me how his girl friend thru-hiked the trail last year. After he told me how quickly she completed it I probed a little deeper and found out that she skipped the southern half of VA and CT and MA because she hiked those sections years previously. That's what? about 20%- 25% of the trail. That's a section hike in my book, but she still claims a 2008 thru-hike.:-?She claims? You said her boyfriend said she was a thruhiker. Being a normal person, it probably didn't matter much to him what order or which months she walked. She walked from Georgia to Maine and that was good enough for him (as it is will the entire world population who do not belong to AT internet forums) so he calls her a thruhiker, and if you tried to explain it doesn't count because she didn't hike it in the right order, he would think you weird.
Anyway, once she finishes the trail, she gets a 2000-miler certificate, no matter when she started her hike, or in what order she did it.
I can't see how it really matters.
Some questions/thoughts:
1. It seems that there is indeed data concerning how many people cross certain "points" along the AT (i.e Springer Mtn, Harper's Ferry, Baxter, etc). However, I do not believe that anyone is actually tracking WHOthose people are. Thus, we do not really know if "John Q. Smith from Anytown, USA" was at Springer, Harper's Ferry, Baxter and various other points along the trail. Am I correct in this assumption? If so, we don't REALLY know how many people are thru hiking.
2. Much of the data appears to be based upon "self-reporting". I would guess that there are many people who begin a thru hike and quit after only a few hours or a few days before quitting. Many such people probably would not want to self report this type of fact. Thus, do we REALLY know how many people begin a thru hike?
3. I would repeat what several other people have already written: I believe that many people today would have absolutely no problem falsely claiming that they have completed a thru hike--when they have not really done so.
Jim Adams
06-07-2009, 00:15
[quote=bigcranky;849717] The ATC doesn't recognize "thru-hikers," only "2000-milers."
Not so. In 1990 a gentleman named "High Pockets" was attempting "another" thru hike but was not successful due to health problems. He had attempted a thru in 1989 and hiked from Georgia to his third day in the 100 mile wilderness and walked out due to snow. He then went to Baxter and climbed Katahdin 2 days later. He applied to the ATC for his 2,000 mile patch since he had hiked over 2,000 miles of the trail and was refused by the ATC due to the section of the 100 mile that he hadn't hiked yet. The patch says 2,000 miles but requires the 2,165 to recieve it. They only recognize completions. He never did finish due to health problems.
geek
Lone Wolf has said many times, if you really want to get technical, no one should claim to be a thru-hiker until they're thru.
Maybe through traffic shouldn't use the lane designated for it either. Still, it's true 2000 miles is a long way and many things can happen.
Through or thru- is used to describe many different kinds of AT hikes and hikers these days and its meaning sometimes can be discerned from the context of the conversation or written words, not always. I've thought it would be desireable to improve our AT lexicon to more readily distinguish amongst these various types of hikes and hikers, but that's a topic for another thread.
bigcranky
06-07-2009, 08:28
[quote=bigcranky;849717] The ATC doesn't recognize "thru-hikers," only "2000-milers."
Not so. In 1990 a gentleman named "High Pockets" was attempting "another" thru hike but was not successful due to health problems. He had attempted a thru in 1989 and hiked from Georgia to his third day in the 100 mile wilderness and walked out due to snow. He then went to Baxter and climbed Katahdin 2 days later. He applied to the ATC for his 2,000 mile patch since he had hiked over 2,000 miles of the trail and was refused by the ATC due to the section of the 100 mile that he hadn't hiked yet. The patch says 2,000 miles but requires the 2,165 to recieve it. They only recognize completions. He never did finish due to health problems.
geek
The ATC makes it clear that the "2000 Miler" designation is reserved for people who have hiked the entire trail, not just 2000+ miles of it. Very clear. The name is simply an historic artifact.
Sorry, I thought that was pretty obvious. The purpose of my comment -- that the ATC doesn't care how long it takes to do the entire trail -- still applies.