2009 Thru-Hiker Stats

[Jack Tarlin]

Earlier this year, in Georgia, North Carolina, and Tennessee, many people who lived or worked along the Trail (Outfitters; Hostel or Motelkeepers, etc). told me they thought hiker figures were "up" this year by 10-15% over the past few years. They were near unanimous in saying so.

But in recent weeks, in Vermont and New Hampshire, I've heard folks say just the opposite, i.e. they think numbers are down.

I think both views are correct.

I think numbers WERE up in March and April. I think there were lots of folks who'd just lost their jobs, figured they could live pretty cheaply on the Trail, that the job scene might look better in six months, and therefore decided that this was a good year to hike.

On the other hand, I think a lot of these folks quit fairly early, especially because of the poor weather, and that as a consequence, final numbers will be down this year a bit, mainly because of a higher attrition rate.

Any thoughts on this? Would especially like to hear from folks in Trail towns, hostelkeepers, etc.

[rcli4]

I think the weather pretty much sucked. I hiked for 8 days in may, it rained everyday. That gets old in a hurry.

Clyde

[modiyooch]

Is it true that the percentage of SOBOs completing a thru hike is greater than the percentage of NOBOs completing a thru hike? If so, why do you think this is so?

(hope I'm not hijacking, but contributing to the topic. stats are stats)

[Lone Wolf]

Is it true that the percentage of SOBOs completing a thru hike is greater than the percentage of NOBOs completing a thru hike? If so, why do you think this is so?

(hope I'm not hijacking, but contributing to the topic. stats are stats)

true. they're mentally tougher

[JillyBarb]

You can get the latest facts and statistics at the Appalachian Trail Conservancy Site. They have 1425 starting at Springer so far (as of August 24), and 214 starting at Katahdin. 23 finished at Katahdin so far and 4 at Springer.

[modiyooch]

You can get the latest facts and statistics at the Appalachian Trail Conservancy Site. They have 1425 starting at Springer so far (as of August 24), and 214 starting at Katahdin. 23 finished at Katahdin so far and 4 at Springer.Thanks, knowing that SOBOs get a much later start, I'll check back later in the season. It's interesting to see the start stats, though. I ran into alot of the SOBOs.

[Jeff]

My Manchester, VT stats are very preliminary:


NOBO's are even with last year, maybe a bit higher.


SOBO's are down a little -- The June starters really got hammered in Maine!!

[Jester2000]

While Laurie P would be the go-to person about this kind of thing in my neck of the woods, numbers here seemed to be very slightly up over last year.

[TJ aka Teej]

You can get the latest facts and statistics at the Appalachian Trail Conservancy Site. They have 1425 starting at Springer so far (as of August 24), and 214 starting at Katahdin. 23 finished at Katahdin so far and 4 at Springer.
Many, many more than 23 GAMErs have summited Katahdin so far this summer according to the register at Katahdin Stream.

[Lauriep]

The Katahdin number on ATC's 2,000-miler stats page (http://www.appalachiantrail.org/2000milers) refers to the number of 2,000-miler reports we've received.

It's just too easy to be counted as a northbound thru-hiker at Baxter for us to use those numbers (not that there's anything wrong with the way Baxter collects information for their own management purposes). If we used the northbound thru-hiker numbers at Baxter, the success rate some years would have been close to 40% (although it likely won't be this year).

The number of northbound starters at Springer this year was up 14% over last year; by Harpers Ferry it was only about 5% higher.

For southbound thru-hikers, we do use Baxter's numbers.

Laurie P.
ATC

[David@whiteblaze]

Is it true that the percentage of SOBOs completing a thru hike is greater than the percentage of NOBOs completing a thru hike? If so, why do you think this is so?

(hope I'm not hijacking, but contributing to the topic. stats are stats)
They have to have a lot of confidence to go against the grain. Therefore, they are looked upon as brashen and are more adamently determined to finish. also, the nobo approach is the old standby for people (myself included) and a lot of people just say that theyre going to hike to get away from something, lose weight etc. and turn around and leave. theres 8 mi. or less off springer. theres 100 miles of wilderness after nantucket (i think) so once you get through that, you are used to the mental and physical beating. also its a "percentage" so if 10 people leave katahdin and 3 make it, its 30% if 2000 leave springer and 250 make it, thats 25%

[David@whiteblaze]

wait, thats 12.5%

[Jester2000]

Nantucket?

[jersey joe]

true. they're mentally tougher
This may be true, but I think southbounders are generally more AT savy and are better prepared. Hikers with less AT knowlege/experience generally flock to Springer because "that's what thru hikers do", it's more traditional.

[Jester2000]

This may be true, but I think southbounders are generally more AT savy and are better prepared. Hikers with less AT knowlege/experience generally flock to Springer because "that's what thru hikers do", it's more traditional.

This was once true, but is currently in flux. A lot of Southbounders now are college students that are SOBO because they can do it and only take one semester off from school rather than the two they would have to take off to Northbound. As this becomes more popular it may affect completion rates.

[Jack Tarlin]

I think Jersey Joe might have a point. Also, southbounders must become self-sufficient pretty quickly and must learn to rely on themselves (and spend a lot of time by themselves) almost immediately, which is tied into what Lone Wolf termed "mental toughness".

And don't forget that Southbounders do the hardest two states first. Those who get thru this (and it takes most of them 35-50 days to get to Hanover) have an excellent chance of completing the Trail; it gets much easier for them after they get done with Northern New England.

And one more point: One sees lots of older folks starting in Georgia, including lots of biddies, i.e. out of shape women in their fifties and sixties, most of whom have little or no chance of completing the Trail. The older NOBO's quit the Trail in much higher percentages than younger hikers, and SOBO's tend to be recent college graduates, i.e. most of them are young and quite fit. It is only natural that a 23 year old in great shape has a better chance of completing a long hike than an out-of-shape 62 year old of either sex.

In short, there are any number of reasons why Southbounders probably have a higher completion percentage.

[rickb]

The stats would be skewed if more NOBO thru hikers elect not to report their hikes to to the ATC. For whatever reason.

Not sure.

I did take note that while there was record of 451 NOBO thru hikers taking the Kennebec Ferry in 2007, only 307 NOBOs sent in for a patch.

[David@whiteblaze]

Nantucket?
millinocket, sry.

[modiyooch]

Is it true that the percentage of SOBOs completing a thru hike is greater than the percentage of NOBOs completing a thru hike? So after looking at the stats posted at ATC, this statement isn't so. Percentages are close, with NOBO have a higher percentage

[Tinker]

This may be true, but I think southbounders are generally more AT savy and are better prepared. Hikers with less AT knowlege/experience generally flock to Springer because "that's what thru hikers do", it's more traditional.

Fewer "dreamers", more real hikers.
If I ever get the chance to thru, I'll probably do a sobo, since I've already visited both ends. An ending on the highest peak in Me. would be nice, but in no way necessary. Also, I'm not much of a hot weather person, so hiking with fall appeals more to me than getting overtaken by summer.

[Jack Tarlin]

Whoa, a little over the top there, Tinker.

Over the years, I've met thousands of thru-hikers, and the vast majority of them were Northbounders.

They sure seemed like "real" hikers to me. :D

[HedgePig]

Although it fluctuates from year to year, the stats seem to show that NOBO's have a higher completion. http://www.appalachiantrail.org/site/c.mqLTIYOwGlF/b.4805579/k.DA92/2000Milers_Facts_and_Statistics.htm (thanks for the link, Lauriep!) shows that from 2002 to 2008, 26.4% of NOBO's completed while 22.7% of SOBO's finished their thru-hikes.

“Get your facts first, then you can distort them as much as you please.”

[modiyooch]

“Get your facts first, then you can distort them as much as you please.”
???? not sure what this means.

[Jack Tarlin]

Quick thought:

Before we talk too much about "distorted" figures, we'd do well to keep in mind that ALL of these figures are approximates.

More and more thru-hikers every year head up the Forest road and "tag" the Springer summit, and never ever see Amicalola Falls State Park, never mind sign in anywhere. And while there is a "caretaker" on the Springer summit who does his best to keep a head count, a lot of folks get by him. And not everyone "signs in" at Neel Gap, either, so what this means is that the Georgia "starting figures" are guesswork. (And then there are people who quit at Woody or Neel Gap without ever having "signed in" anywhere.

For all these reasons, the figures detailing how many people actually start each year are approximate figures, i.e. they are guesstimates......and therefore, the completion rate figures are also guesswork. After all, if nobody really knows for sure how many folks have started, then it becomes impossible to accurately determine the percentage that actually finish.

[double d]

The NOBO vs SOBO debate might be centered on the important factor of time. It seems to me that many NOBO hikers have to leave in March or April, while SOBO hikers have to leave later, so that is a factor that must considered. Met a NOBO thru hiker this past July in Vermont who was 57 years old (he was from Fla.) and he had to complete his hike during the spring and summer months. Not sure about the mental toughness issue, that seems to me a little silly of a statement because once someone gets to Vermont (from either direction), you either have it by then or you don't.

[HedgePig]

“Get your facts first, then you can distort them as much as you please.”

Sorry, I meant to add that was a quote from Mark Twain (I believe).
Not aimed at anyone, it just amused me.

[garlic08]

Sorry, I meant to add that was a quote from Mark Twain (I believe).
Not aimed at anyone, it just amused me.

I've also heard this attributed to Mark Twain, though I think it's Disraeli: "There are lies, dammed lies, and statistics". That applies here, as well. I agree with Jack, the "statistics" might be misleading. I agree that there are many uncounted hikers--it's sort of the nature of many people in the woods.

[Lemni Skate]

Yes, it's a real inexact figure, for sure. From what I know of thru hikers, I imagine some of them don't care much about reporting their hikes. Also from my hikes in Georgia I know a lot of people start off not really calling themselves thru-hikers. They just say, "going as far as I can" (or some version of that). Also, knowing what I know about human nature, I am sure some people lie and claim to complete hikes when they didn't. How we would judge how many people fit in these categories for North and South, I don't know.

My guess is that only about 10-15% of people who start out hoping (even if they won't say it) that they'll complete a thru-hike really do it.

Not a big deal to me either way. If somebody hikes it, I figure they've got a lot of fortitude and I don't really care which way they go.

[Mango]

I think Jersey Joe might have a point. Also, southbounders must become self-sufficient pretty quickly and must learn to rely on themselves (and spend a lot of time by themselves) almost immediately, which is tied into what Lone Wolf termed "mental toughness".

And don't forget that Southbounders do the hardest two states first. Those who get thru this (and it takes most of them 35-50 days to get to Hanover) have an excellent chance of completing the Trail; it gets much easier for them after they get done with Northern New England.

And one more point: One sees lots of older folks starting in Georgia, including lots of biddies, i.e. out of shape women in their fifties and sixties, most of whom have little or no chance of completing the Trail. The older NOBO's quit the Trail in much higher percentages than younger hikers, and SOBO's tend to be recent college graduates, i.e. most of them are young and quite fit. It is only natural that a 23 year old in great shape has a better chance of completing a long hike than an out-of-shape 62 year old of either sex.

In short, there are any number of reasons why Southbounders probably have a higher completion percentage.


BJ, do you have data to support these claims, or are they your pesonal observations? When I thru'ed in '06, the older ones seemed to have more determination / mental toughness / stubbornness on average than the younger ones, many of whom saw the Trail as a vacation after 4 or 6 years of school. Older hikers are not in as good shape physically as 23 yr olds, but we have more maturity and focus (some do, anyway).

[Blue Jay]

One sees lots of older folks starting in Georgia, including lots of biddies, i.e. out of shape women in their fifties and sixties, most of whom have little or no chance of completing the Trail. The older NOBO's quit the Trail in much higher percentages than younger hikers, and SOBO's tend to be recent college graduates, i.e. most of them are young and quite fit.

I have to disagree with you about this. As you know I spend quite a bit of time every other year, when I'm not hiking, hanging out on the trail around here. I see many older, 50s and 60s folks of both sexes going both north and south. The little or no chance comment is completely wrong. I do think there are more SOBOs this year, but remember every single opinion here, including mine, is a complete guess. Unless you sit in a lawn chair 24/7 and do not sleep you are going to miss quite a few.

[Jester2000]

. . .And one more point: One sees lots of older folks starting in Georgia, including lots of biddies, i.e. out of shape women in their fifties and sixties, most of whom have little or no chance of completing the Trail. . .


I have to disagree with you about this. As you know I spend quite a bit of time every other year, when I'm not hiking, hanging out on the trail around here. I see many older, 50s and 60s folks of both sexes going both north and south. The little or no chance comment is completely wrong. I do think there are more SOBOs this year, but remember every single opinion here, including mine, is a complete guess. Unless you sit in a lawn chair 24/7 and do not sleep you are going to miss quite a few.

I don't know how much I agree with him on this point, but Jack's "little or no chance" comment may have been in reference to "out of shape women in their fifties and sixties" rather than older people generally.

Jack, in another post, already commented on the sketchy nature of our guesses, but I will point out that if we're talking about completion percentage, the fact that you see a lot of older folks near East Poestenkill, NY isn't incompatible with Jack's statement. (if you accept the possibility that much greater numbers than what you see there are starting in Georgia and quitting long before they get to you).

[Jack Tarlin]

Jester is correct in that I was not referring to ALL older hikers.

[David@whiteblaze]

wait, you just agreed w/ jester :eek: (dundundun)The horror!

[Jester2000]

wait, you just agreed w/ jester :eek: (dundundun)The horror!

I choose to believe that secretly, deep down inside, everyone agrees with me.

[Blue Jay]

I don't know how much I agree with him on this point, but Jack's "little or no chance" comment may have been in reference to "out of shape women in their fifties and sixties" rather than older people generally.

Jack, in another post, already commented on the sketchy nature of our guesses, but I will point out that if we're talking about completion percentage, the fact that you see a lot of older folks near East Poestenkill, NY isn't incompatible with Jack's statement.

Clearly I was not clear. Many women in their 50s and 60s, who may or may not have been out of shape, complete the AT. I do not believe their persentage rate is lower than any other demographic. As for hikers near East Poestenkill, other than myself, I think Sasquatch would more likely be spotted. I was referring to the entire states of Mass. and VT.

[David@whiteblaze]

I choose to believe that secretly, deep down inside, everyone agrees with me.
I realize that... OH NO!!!! I JUST AGREED W/ JESTER:eek:!!!!! AAAAUUUUGGGHHH!!!

[MileMonster]

Feels like fewer hikers in Hanover this year, but that's not based on anything other than what I see around town. Could be that hikers are spaced out more this year and the numbers were steady but there just never was a really busy time. Could be that I'm just mistaken and it was basically the same as years past. Hmm, was that helpful?

[Jack Tarlin]

No, I think you're right.

Numbers are down in these parts, and this was confirmed to me a few days ago by the guys who run the hiker hostel in Glencliff.

I can think of two reasons why:

*It was the wettest Trail year since 2003, especially down south, and while
the number of starters may have been a bit higher than in recent years,
the attrition rate was pretty high, too. Numbers are down in Hanover and
elsewhere for the simple reason that an awful lot of folks didn't make it this
far.

*I met a ton of folks down south in Georgia and North Carolina who were
hiking thanx to their unemployment benfeits, i.e. they had months of checks
coming to them, they figured they could live cheaper on the Trail than at
home, and that the job situation would probably look better in 6 or 7
months. There were dozens of folks like this on the Trail, and these folks
figured this was as good a year as any to hike. I think a lot of these folks
who in many cases decided to hike the Trail on a whim or on short notice
quit early on, while more committed, and better prepared people stuck it
out a bit longer. Deciding to thru-hike isn't a decision to make lightly.

[jersey joe]

No, I think you're right.

Numbers are down in these parts, and this was confirmed to me a few days ago by the guys who run the hiker hostel in Glencliff.

I can think of two reasons why:

*It was the wettest Trail year since 2003, especially down south, and while
the number of starters may have been a bit higher than in recent years,
the attrition rate was pretty high, too. Numbers are down in Hanover and
elsewhere for the simple reason that an awful lot of folks didn't make it this
far.

*I met a ton of folks down south in Georgia and North Carolina who were
hiking thanx to their unemployment benfeits, i.e. they had months of checks
coming to them, they figured they could live cheaper on the Trail than at
home, and that the job situation would probably look better in 6 or 7
months. There were dozens of folks like this on the Trail, and these folks
figured this was as good a year as any to hike. I think a lot of these folks
who in many cases decided to hike the Trail on a whim or on short notice
quit early on, while more committed, and better prepared people stuck it
out a bit longer. Deciding to thru-hike isn't a decision to make lightly.
Both theories seem plausable. The incredibly wet weather this summer couldn't have been very fun to hike in, day in/day out.

[TJ aka Teej]

Finishing GAMErs last week were already being numbered in the high 300s - way up from recent years if memory serves. BSP only numbers 2000 milers this way, for what it's worth.

[pjbarr]

what is the forecast for 2010 starting thru-hikers? economy still isn't good but it's expected that it won't be as bad come spring 2010 than it was at that time in 2009. unemployment still remains high, though its increasing skid is leveling...

[Blue Jay]

what is the forecast for 2010 starting thru-hikers?

Mostly smelly, with occasional fart gas.

[Gator 65]

We summited on Sat. Sept 26 and when we checked in with the Ranger at Baxter (Katahdin Stream campground) she assigned us numbers whom she said were for thru hikers. My number was 398 ( I left Springer on March 9th) she had recorded 416 thru hikers registering to summit this season to date. She also told us that being in touch with Amicalola State Park the estimated that 1450 or so logged in as thru hikers this year. The ranger station at Katahdin Stream Campground will provide you with the figures.

[Jeff]

Mostly smelly, with occasional fart gas.

My grandson says it will be "Cloudy with a chance a Meatballs."

[Gator 65]

I need to disagree with you Jack on the "old Folks" dropping out more than the young folks. My impression this year was the older ones hung in there about the same average as the young folks if not even more so.
The four (4) primary things that cause you to leave the trail are........

Weather-Finances-Health-Time.

Most of us senior citizens need only to worry about health.
For example, When we get to town, say Erwin for example, I can afford to spend the night at the Holiday Inn Express ($125.00) and not have to sleep in the bunk room at Uncle Johnny's with someone who has bronchitis or the flu. We can also afford to eat light weight $9.00 Mountain House meals and forgo the need to carry jars of peanut butter. We can pay for shuttle rides into town, if necessay, for our food drops and other items and not need to hitch hike.
Time is never a factor. No need to rush home for the next semester or get back to work. My biggest problem was preventing injury. We all experience the weather at the same time but I believe the older folks looked at it just the same as the younger folks. One other observation, all of the younger folks I hiked with were were well educated, good character men and women with a great outlook on life and they all had a great time on the trail. Myself and another "senior citizen" had a great time with a the younger group we first met in the Smokies and we all summited with 3 days of each other.

[Jester2000]

Sounds like you had a great trip! Congratulations!

[DavidNH]

I wasn't on the trail this year, but I think that Jack is very likely dead on in that numbers where up in the south and down in the north.

June and July weather was absolutely atrocious in New England this year. With rain day after day after day I bet many folks left the trail. I would have left the trail with these conditions. In fact, I attempted the Cohos trail end of June early July and left due to the wet conditions.

I don't remember ever a summer rainier than this years. As it turns out, the weather service declared this year to be among the three wettest summers (for June thru August) ever recorded for southern New Hampshire.

I may be wrong about this, but didn't the south get reasonably dry weather early on only to be pounded by rain this fall?

DavidNH

[Slo-go'en]

she had recorded 416 thru hikers registering to summit this season to date. Amicalola State Park the estimated that 1450 or so logged in as thru hikers this year.

Wow, that's a 28.7% completion rate. It rained a whole lot down south in late April and most of May too, at least were I was in Virginia.

[George]

I for one am not going to doubt Jacks opinion on dropouts, few have been out there as much and no one talks to more hikers up and down the trail over the years

[Jester2000]

[quote=Gator 65;906976] she had recorded 416 thru hikers registering to summit this season to date. Amicalola State Park the estimated that 1450 or so logged in as thru hikers this year. quote]

Wow, that's a 28.7% completion rate. It rained a whole lot down south in late April and most of May too, at least were I was in Virginia.

Gotta be careful with those numbers. Anyone who enters the park after doing the 100 mile wilderness is considered a thru-hiker by Baxter.

[volleypc]

I wasn't on the trail this year, but I think that Jack is very likely dead on in that numbers where up in the south and down in the north.

June and July weather was absolutely atrocious in New England this year. With rain day after day after day I bet many folks left the trail. I would have left the trail with these conditions. In fact, I attempted the Cohos trail end of June early July and left due to the wet conditions.

I don't remember ever a summer rainier than this years. As it turns out, the weather service declared this year to be among the three wettest summers (for June thru August) ever recorded for southern New Hampshire.

I may be wrong about this, but didn't the south get reasonably dry weather early on only to be pounded by rain this fall?

DavidNH

David, I have to disagree with you about it being wetter in the north than the south. It was wet everywhere this year. I started on march 2nd and about 500 miles into it we looked throgh our journals and it had rained 46 percent of the days we were out. It seemed like every town we went into the locals would tell us that this is the most rain they had in 10-15 years. While I did get dumped on in Penn, Mass, VT, and Maine.. it seemed like I had more clear days then I did in the south. It was just a wet year overall this year.

[Ramble~On]

I wasn't on the trail this year, but I think that Jack is very likely dead on in that numbers where up in the south and down in the north.

June and July weather was absolutely atrocious in New England this year. With rain day after day after day I bet many folks left the trail. I would have left the trail with these conditions. In fact, I attempted the Cohos trail end of June early July and left due to the wet conditions.

I don't remember ever a summer rainier than this years. As it turns out, the weather service declared this year to be among the three wettest summers (for June thru August) ever recorded for southern New Hampshire.

I may be wrong about this, but didn't the south get reasonably dry weather early on only to be pounded by rain this fall?

DavidNH

:D Wrong....it would rain early on in the south for 10 days at a time...stop for a day and rain for another week. This was a wet year everywhere.