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View Full Version : hurry! HURRY! HURRY-CANE!!! to AT by Labor Day



steve hiker
09-02-2004, 00:40
H. Frances is coming to the AT by Labor Day! Just south of Springer.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/020253W5.gif

And you thought the winds were strong in the gaps in the springtime? Just wait till this hungry hurry-cane starts drawing air through the Appalachians this weekend as it approaches N. Georgia. What a ride that will be! I'm thinking of doing the north Georgia section just for kicks.

Before then, it looks like Frances is gonna paste south Florida. From the latest update:

FRANCES HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. THE SONDE DATA HAS PRODUCED SOME INTERESTING AND DISTURBING RESULTS. THE HEIGHT DATA FOR THE VARIOUS PRESSURE LEVELS...COMPARED TO 18Z SURROUNDING UPPER-AIR DATA...APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST 20 METERS TOO LOW. HOWEVER...THE WIND DATA CLEARLY INDICATE A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N 75W...OR ABOUT 500 NMI NORTHWEST OF FRANCES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.

Hurry hurry HURRY! :banana

'Till When
09-02-2004, 01:23
Let's go!


Wonder what most NGA shelters are wind rated for.............

I live near the water, everyone's packing up!

pvtmorriscsa
09-02-2004, 02:30
Howdy All,
Am I the only person who lives in the "ass deep in snow" zone of the country that smiles when it is hurricane season in the "snow??? What is snow??" zone?
Just curious.

Tabasco
09-02-2004, 08:33
I am planning on doing the NOC to Fontana Sept 10-12. Should I be concerned about this weather?

eyahiker
09-02-2004, 08:39
Should be past by then.......


Wow, the hurricane is bigger than the state of Florida...........
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/RGB/20.jpg
guess we may have to get out soon.

If you like cool weather photos......

I liked the following photo because you can see the blue 'undisturbed' ocean ahead and in the wake of the 'cane the foam of the ocean, even from this far away (color hi res photo..)
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/images/frances090104-1121z.jpg

2XL
09-02-2004, 08:40
Howdy All,
Am I the only person who lives in the "ass deep in snow" zone of the country that smiles when it is hurricane season in the "snow??? What is snow??" zone?
Just curious.
Snow in Columbus?
I lived there or a while and never saw snow over 3 inches, it never lasted on the ground more that a day.
You should come to New England if you want snow. We had snow on the ground for 3 monthes last year. Not quite Buffalo, NY but not too shabby.
As for smiling in Hurricane season, :-? I feel bad when homes are blown away but when you live down there you know what you're in for.
Can you believe the people from Punta Gorda "want answers" because the forcasters did not give the a dead on b@lls location for the storm's landfall.
I'll have to remember that one for the next snow squall that turns into a blizzard that shuts down the entire east coast.
If you live in Tornado country, Hurricane country or the snow belt.
Like it or leave it.

eyahiker
09-02-2004, 09:01
2xl is right! Like the gorgeous superfund mansions along the outerbanks and those who continue to build over and over along the flood plains of the MS river.

Tax dollars hard at work. Punta Gorda people asking for answers.......silliness.

God still has the weather in his hands, we never will!

tlbj6142
09-02-2004, 09:26
Snow in Columbus?
I lived there or a while and never saw snow over 3 inches, it never lasted on the ground more that a day.I've lived here since '92 and I can only think of 2 or 3 snow storms since then. I'd love to get one of those snow half way up the front windows kinda storms. But they just don't happen here in Columbus.

In fact, our weather is actually rather boring. Though (IMO) it gets way too hot in the summer and not cold enough in the winter.

eyahiker
09-02-2004, 12:14
Sometimes in N AZ there are great high in the window storms, Flag. is at 7500 feet in town.I love those storms!

art to linda
09-02-2004, 12:57
If you want snow, we usually have some to spare here. Minnesota saying, "If you don't like the weather stick around, tomorrow it will be totally different." ..... unoffical state bird: The Mosquito..... why we like winter: no mosquitos. As for storms, a good oldfashion tornado can shake you up pretty well, and the regular thunder and lightening type storms put on quite a show :D

eyahiker
09-02-2004, 13:01
art to L:

I've always wanted to spend a month in MN in the winter. I've heard the Ely festival was pretty cool, opinions?

(Plus, I'm a Garrison Keiler fan and he makes the locals sound so NICE. Minneapolis is my favorite city to travel to for a weekend visit, great music!)

ga>me>ak
09-02-2004, 13:14
Frances is one huge @ss kicking storm. The damage I saw with Charley's 110-115 mph winds was devastating. I can't imagine 140+ winds, and, I have no intention of being in them firsthand( even though I'm a storm freak). There is supposed to be high winds up to 180 miles from the center of this cane. There is a good chance this could go a cat.5 hurricane. The pressure is still dropping and it will hit some warmer water as it gets closer. If this sucker starts south and heads north on land, it's gonna rip FL a great big new......you get the picture.

art to linda
09-02-2004, 13:22
eyahiker.... check out this link http://www.deep-portage.org/
They do a winter survival thing every January that people come from all over the world for. Two of my kids made Jr. champions and one the young adult when he was older (Mom is the slacker LOL). Great fun for the whole family, everything from black powder to tracking. :cool:

2XL
09-02-2004, 13:24
IfMinnesota saying, "If you don't like the weather stick around, tomorrow it will be totally different." :D

Here in New England the saying goes" If you don't like the weather, wait ten minutes."

MN was always someplace I wanted visit,especially in the winter.

I agree with Eyahiker, Garrison does make the people sound very nice. I just love Sven and Olly jokes.

sgtjinx
09-02-2004, 13:54
Should be past by then.......


Wow, the hurricane is bigger than the state of Florida...........
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/RGB/20.jpg
guess we may have to get out soon.

If you like cool weather photos......

I liked the following photo because you can see the blue 'undisturbed' ocean ahead and in the wake of the 'cane the foam of the ocean, even from this far away (color hi res photo..)
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/images/frances090104-1121z.jpg
That is one wild photo of the Hurricane. I just missed out on Charley, but I'm going to get hit by Frances. Just my bloody luck!!! Been through to many of the damn things. Here in Florida and also in Hawaii in the 80's.:mad:

I still hope I can do the AT in October, and not finding a new house to live in.

Sgt Jinx in Tampa Florida and hanging on to a tree :D

sgtjinx
09-02-2004, 14:13
Frances is one huge @ss kicking storm. The damage I saw with Charley's 110-115 mph winds was devastating. I can't imagine 140+ winds, and, I have no intention of being in them firsthand( even though I'm a storm freak). There is supposed to be high winds up to 180 miles from the center of this cane. There is a good chance this could go a cat.5 hurricane. The pressure is still dropping and it will hit some warmer water as it gets closer. If this sucker starts south and heads north on land, it's gonna rip FL a great big new......you get the picture.
Looks like we are both screwed on this one! I have seen the damage from Hurricane Isabell and Betsy with 135 mph winds when I was growing up in Venice Florida in the 60s and 70s. I watched the Venice Beach disappear in 1969 from Hurricane Camille.

If you want more information about hurricane strikes in Florida. Check this out.
www2.sptimes.com/weather/HF.menu.html

Good luck to you oga>me>ak on the storm.

Sgt Jinx
Riverview Fl

grrickar
09-02-2004, 14:36
You won't have to worry about water sources. The AT will be a Class III river by the time that thing dumps. No filtering needed, just open your mouth and look up when you want a drink:jump

steve hiker
09-02-2004, 15:01
Looks like we are both screwed on this one! I have seen the damage from Hurricane Isabell and Betsy with 135 mph winds when I was growing up in Venice Florida in the 60s and 70s. I watched the Venice Beach disappear in 1969 from Hurricane Camille.
It's about time your Floridians got another ass kicking. Frances is gonna wipe the slate clean down there.

Ain't it sweet. Like when LSU broke "unbeatable" Florida's win streak a few years ago in Baton Rouge. :banana

Shredder
09-02-2004, 15:49
Howdy All,
Am I the only person who lives in the "ass deep in snow" zone of the country that smiles when it is hurricane season in the "snow??? What is snow??" zone?
Just curious.
Ohio, ass deep snow?? thats the bannana belt....Shredder (N. MI)

eyahiker
09-02-2004, 16:33
thanks art2Linda, I'll definately check this out, sounds like a lot of fun!
sgtjinx: I'm on a tree on the east coast.........waiting for evac instructions:confused:
Hope it misses Tpa !

2XL
09-02-2004, 16:44
Ohio, ass deep snow?? thats the bannana belt....Shredder (N. MI)
Do we have a Buckeye/ Wolverine rivalry brewing?

art to linda
09-02-2004, 17:31
eyeahiker & 2XL

It's a great state, people are friendly & helpfull, coffee is always on and easy to add extra to the pot and another place at the table. We smile and look people in the eye, which makes it a lot of fun when I'm in a big city... they're not sure if I'm going to mug them or what so they just scurry on by ;) Sven & Olie jokes, we don't even want to go there LOL

eyea... don't get blown out of your tree, good luck with the evac

2XL... you must be about the size of my 2 boys. both 2XL, size 14 & 15 shoe!
and me, not quite 5'2" :D

eyahiker
09-02-2004, 17:37
Yup. Minnesota. And Prince lives there;)

Tater
09-02-2004, 20:24
It Frances passes over the AT it'll be a good opportunity to check out how well my HH sheds the rain and wind. Looling forward to it.

Pole Climber
09-02-2004, 22:14
They just said on the news Frances is the size of Texas. I'd say it's not anything to mess with. Being that large, it could cover a lot of trail territory!

eyahiker
09-02-2004, 22:17
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/RGB/20.jpg

You may not be able to see this link right away, noaa is jammed up pretty well. Right now can't get on main page for over an hour.

TedB
09-02-2004, 22:40
One of the most beautiful and exhilarating storms I ever enjoyed in the Sierra occurred in December, 1874 ... Being accustomed to climb trees in making botanical studies, I experienced no difficulty in reaching the top of this one, and never before did I enjoy so noble an exhilaration of motion. The slender tops fairly flapped and swished in the passionate torrent, bending and swirling backward and forward, round and round, tracing indescribable combinations of vertical and horizontal curves, while I clung with muscles firm braced, like a bobo-link on a reed.

-John Muir (http://www.abovecalifornia.com/lib/JohnMuir/MountainCa/10.shtml)

steve hiker
09-02-2004, 23:47
The National Hurricane Center page is just as good as National Weather Service, and I've had no problem navigating around and pulling up satallite pics.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Latest report says Frances is slowing down as it approaches the very warm Gulf Stream right off the coast. Remember what happened with that cane a few weeks ago, that hit warm waters just before landfall and jumped from a 2 to a 4. :banana

Groucho
09-02-2004, 23:49
Be careful out there! H'canes in the mountains can be dangerous. Hugo in '89 went through SW VA. In one cove on the way to Knot Maul Branch Shelter the trees looked like a giant pick-up-stick game. Two trees came down as I was hiking, perhaps they had been weakened by the hurricane?

Paraphrased from the VA trail description: Hurricane Camille devastated the Tye River Valley in 1969, 100 deaths in Nelson County alone. More than a mile of the AT was washed away. The Trail had simply disappeared, with the mountainside “washed white” to bedrock and trees lying everywhere.

If I remember correctly, over 30" of rain fell in about 6 hours. Of course, the effects will diminish away from the central path, but be careful where you camp. Might be good weather for a shelter.

sgtjinx
09-03-2004, 15:50
It's about time your Floridians got another ass kicking. Frances is gonna wipe the slate clean down there.

Ain't it sweet. Like when LSU broke "unbeatable" Florida's win streak a few years ago in Baton Rouge. :banana
If I ever hear a loud pop! It must be your head coming out of your ass!!! Also If your born in Florida, your a Florida cracker not a Floridian.:bse :dance

steve hiker
09-03-2004, 19:12
If I ever hear a loud pop! It must be your head coming out of your ass!!! Also If your born in Florida, your a Florida cracker not a Floridian.:bse :dance
Blow it out your ass you Florida cracker! :datzHear those loud popping sounds? That's Frances hammering the farts out of you Floridians tonight. :banana Hope she gets Steve Spurrier too.

Flash Hand
09-04-2004, 19:03
Look like Ivan is following Frances into Florida next week. Third strike, your'e out. Insurance companies might be too broke to keep Florida moving.

Flash Hand :jump