View Full Version : Ivan the Terrible
steve hiker
09-05-2004, 23:47
Frances wimped out on us but Ivan means business. Catagory 4 and soon a 5, heading straight to Florida. :banana
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES SUGGEST THAT IVAN
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 115 KT (132 MPH). CONVECTION IS REMARKABLY STRONG IN THE CORE REGION WITH PEAK CLOUD TOPS APPROACHING -80 DEG C. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG IN ALL QUADRANTS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WNW...285/18. ALL FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST A
SIMILAR TRACK FOR IVAN OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER
ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE,
BRINGING IVAN INTO THE VICINITY OF BARBADOS IN 36 HOURS. FOR THE
120 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD A STRONG CONSENSUS REMAINS IN THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. AFTER 72 HOURS THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... (TO FLORIDA) NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
IVAN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING IVAN UP TO 125 KT (144 MPH) AT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY INDEX SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION PHASE WILL CONTINUE AS THE PROBABILITY FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NEARLY NINE TIMES THE SAMPLE MEAN. GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND AND THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...IVAN IS FORECAST TO REACH 130 KT (150 MPH - KNOCKING ON CAT. 5) IN 12 HOURS. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY AFTER THAT
TIME.
Nightwalker
09-06-2004, 11:27
Frances wimped out on us but Ivan means business.
The Frances 3-day still looks nasty for those of us in the SE US.
ga>me>ak
09-09-2004, 16:19
One mean nasty storm. Measured upper winds( 2-300 ft above sea level) at 230-250 MPH today. If it stills supposed to hit here with the forcast on Sat night, I'm gettin the @!&$$(*&^@#$ outta here
steve hiker
09-13-2004, 13:12
I don't like the way this cane is acting. Go to Florida, Ivan, you'll like the beaches better there.
You wished DOOM on Florida, but it will come back to you two fold!!!! :jump
To bad, so sad
Pop was that your head:bse
Frances wimped out on us but Ivan means business. Catagory 4 and soon a 5, heading straight to Florida. :banana
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES SUGGEST THAT IVAN
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 115 KT (132 MPH). CONVECTION IS REMARKABLY STRONG IN THE CORE REGION WITH PEAK CLOUD TOPS APPROACHING -80 DEG C. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG IN ALL QUADRANTS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS WNW...285/18. ALL FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST A
SIMILAR TRACK FOR IVAN OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER
ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE,
BRINGING IVAN INTO THE VICINITY OF BARBADOS IN 36 HOURS. FOR THE
120 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD A STRONG CONSENSUS REMAINS IN THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. AFTER 72 HOURS THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... (TO FLORIDA) NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
IVAN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING IVAN UP TO 125 KT (144 MPH) AT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY INDEX SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION PHASE WILL CONTINUE AS THE PROBABILITY FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NEARLY NINE TIMES THE SAMPLE MEAN. GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND AND THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...IVAN IS FORECAST TO REACH 130 KT (150 MPH - KNOCKING ON CAT. 5) IN 12 HOURS. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY AFTER THAT
TIME.
steve hiker
09-13-2004, 13:54
You wished DOOM on Florida, but it will come back to you two fold!!!! :jump
To bad, so sad
Pop was that your head:bse
I got news for you sgtjinx, Florida is jinxed and if Ivan does head my way, I'm going to bump it east to Florida. Y'all have been waiting for another Andrew, and were jealous of Camille, so I'll make sure it comes your way. :banana
I got news for you sgtjinx, Florida is jinxed and if Ivan does head my way, I'm going to bump it east to Florida. Y'all have been waiting for another Andrew, and were jealous of Camille, so I'll make sure it comes your way. :banana
Hurricane Camille was a bitch that is for sure. I hope no one ever goes through a bitch like her.
I don't hope doom on anybody!!! Even a clown like you :D
smokymtnsteve
09-14-2004, 13:08
as long as disney world survives :D
steve hiker
09-14-2004, 13:13
Hurricane Camille was a bitch that is for sure. I hope no one ever goes through a bitch like her. I don't hope doom on anybody!!! Even a clown like you :D
Well, believe it or not, most of what I say is in jest. Hurricanes do get me excited, though. :banana
Right now Ivan is heading our way, but looks to pass to the east and hit MS/AL. I'd hate to be in Mobile Bay.
I'm inland and on high ground (50 feet is high ground in La.), so won't get offed by the storm surge even it it makes a direct hit on La. This is a bad one though, and those people in Miss. always seem to get it.
You're right about Camille, which most people don't remember. It was the second most powerful hurricane ever to hit the U.S. (worst was a 1935 storm), much more powerful than Andrew, as seen in this very good link:
http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/hurricanecamille.htm
HURRICANE CAMILLE- August 17, 1969.
WINDS: 190 mph - 220
PRESSURE: 909 Mb./26.84 inches.
STORM - SURGE: 22 - 25 feet above Mean Tide.
The National Hurricane Center estimates Camille had sustained winds of 190 mph with gusts in the 210 - 220 mph range. The lowest barometric pressure recorded on land in Camille was 909 mb (26.85) at Bay St. Louis.
This is the second lowest barometric pressure ever measured in the United States. Only the 1935 Hurricane produced a lower pressure in the middle Keys of 892 Mb (26.35). Several reports of pressure under 915 Mb (27.00), were reported by survivors near the eye.
Hurricane Camille produced the highest hurricane tidal surge ever recorded in the United States. According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Mobile District 1970), a still-water, high water mark, of 22.6 feet above mean tide, was measured inside the VFW Clubhouse building in Pass Christian, Mississippi. Additionally, debris drift was found 25 feet above mean sea level in the vicinity of East Beach Blvd.
steve hiker
09-14-2004, 16:06
Now this is a hurry-cane. Looka the shape of that Camille, ain't she a beauty?
http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/camille.jpg
Beauty in the eye of madness. :-?
Jersey Bob
09-15-2004, 14:40
at least 10 characters
smokymtnsteve
09-15-2004, 15:13
Hurricanes are no laughing matter but this gave me a chuckle. It's on a sign in front of a church:
Hurricane prayer service today.
The sermon this morning: "Jesus Walks on Water."
The sermon tonight: "Searching for Jesus"
PLEASE STAND FOR THE GOSPEL OF ABBEY!
"Jesus don't walk on water no more; his feet leak."
THANKS BE TO ABBEY!
squirrel bait
09-15-2004, 15:54
Ya'all be careful down there, here Ivan comes. Watch the water, it kills more than anything else. Help when ya can and be safe, ya can't help if your hurt. Our prayers are with ya.
Jersey Bob
09-15-2004, 16:02
at least 10 characters
Nightwalker
09-15-2004, 22:58
THANKS BE TO ABBEY!Yo Steve, you don't have to do that crap when ya ain't bein' baited!
:)
steve hiker
09-16-2004, 18:22
Once again, Ivan steered clear of La. after heading right for us. :mad: We got maybe 40 mph winds and not a drop of rain. Like Camille and so many others, it jogged east just as it touched the mouth of the Mississippi, and went elsewhere. Those folks in the Mobile and Pensacola areas must have some real cleaning up to do. (Told you I'd send it to FL Sgtjinx!!! :banana )
One thing's for sure, we won't have any problem finding water on the AT this fall. Just checked the SE radar, and the whole southern Appalachian area is being deluged with rain. Will be quite a few blowdowns to climb over and detour around for awhile also, that's for sure.
Lone Wolf
09-16-2004, 18:26
It's just starting to sprinkle here in Damascus.
It's just starting to sprinkle here in Damascus.
Some heavy rain bands are about to hit Chattanooga. About an hour ago a utility pole 3 houses down snapped when a tree fell on the wires miid-span. Everyone to my left is out of power. We're still rockin' & rollin' with the lights, but I don't know for how long..
Lone Wolf
09-16-2004, 18:41
Oh boy. The slightest wind around here knocks the power out.
steve hiker
09-16-2004, 19:03
From Accuweather.com --
Ivan will be changing characteristics as we head through Friday and into the weekend, with the winds in the system subsiding but the threat for catastrophic flooding increasing. The current forecast is for the storm to slow down and perhaps stall out over the central Appalachians, which would be the focus for torrential rainfall. Severe weather and tornadoes will also be a threat east of the system.
orangebug
09-16-2004, 19:14
They seem to be predicting Ivan to pass between Damascus and Boone on Saturday. This just seems to keep getting more nasty every hour.
Atlanta has been fun with horizontal rain, big winds and trees toppling as the ground gets saturated. I hope this isn't the Opal of the 21st Century regarding blow-downs and trail problems.
Bill...
smokymtnsteve
09-16-2004, 19:20
Power just come back on it Atlanta
SavageLlama
09-17-2004, 21:57
Nantahala got beat up by Ivan...
http://www.charlotte.com/mld/observer/news/local/9693174.htm?1c
steve hiker
09-18-2004, 01:05
Nantahala got beat up by Ivan...
http://www.charlotte.com/mld/observer/news/local/9693174.htm?1c
Damn, and I was planning to go hiking there next weekend. With all those blowdowns, it'd be like picking your way through a pile of matchsticks.
Don't bother registering at the Charlotte website, it takes forever and only has one sentence saying the U.S. Forest Service has closed the Nantahala area.
Brushy Sage
09-18-2004, 16:14
Power is gradually being restored in the Asheville area. All the mountain streams flooded, and the French Broad is just cresting and flooding) this afternoon (Sat) at Marshall and Hot Springs. Over 200 roads were closed in Buncombe County (Asheville) alone. I-40 is closed 14 mi east of the TN line, so traffic to Knoxville is being routed through Asheville onto I-26, which goes over Sams Gap and close to Miss Janet's place enroute to I-81 and into Knoxville. One thing for sure: the water tables will be high, and hiker's next spring will not encounter any water shortage in the southern Appalachians.
Spent some time out on the trail today on Cowrock and Wildcat Mtns and the Blue Blaze to Whitley Gap Shelter. No problems other than the occasional deadfall and lots of debris. However we couldn't get up logan turnpike to Tesnatee Gap. The trail for the most part was a raging creek although if you know the trail that is of little surprise.
I would say this area of Georgia fared very well considering two tropical storms in a couple of weeks.
Brushy Sage
09-19-2004, 18:09
According to Asheville Citizen-Times, I-40 has been reopened this afternoon (Sunday, Sep 19) four miles east of the TN/NC border, with one lane of traffic in each direction.
At 0200 to 0300 Thursday, the eye of Ivan passed over my house (Fairhope, AL). The eerie calm allowed us to let the dogs out and to inspect the damage caused by the front edge of the storm. Big freakin' mess, but the house was okay! Later, the back edge of the storm was a big nothing, at least the part I didn't sleep thru. By daylight, it had mostly moved on. Utilities were only off for a few days. We were the lucky ones, strange as it may seem, the eye is not the worst place to be. Those East of us (such as Pensacola, FL) beared the brunt, though Orange Beach and Gulf Shores, AL, where the eye came ashore, were largely destroyed. Right now, my only problems are some missing window trim, a bashed in garage door and a severe lack of cable TV.
chief
Flash Hand
09-21-2004, 12:39
I ve read some news that rainwaters flooding and mudslides caused a huge problem in or near Franklin, NC. Want to know how they are?
Flash Hand :jump
Brushy Sage
09-21-2004, 13:57
According to local news reports in western North Carolina (as well as New York Times), several homes were washed away, and there were some fatalaties, in the small community of Peeks Creek between Franklin and Highlands, NC, along US 64. As of this morning (Tuesday), a search and recovery operation was still underway. That section of US 64 has been closed, and I haven't seen any reports yet of its having been reopened, but of course the events aren't all reported immediately. This is farther east from Franklin, and not near the AT.