View Full Version : February Start vs. March/April Start
Is there really MUCH of an advantage to starting a NOBO thru hike in February versus starting sometime between March 15-April 7th?
What are your thoughts and experiences?
(I will give my own thoughts and observations in the next post)
I have my serious doubts regarding the advantage of the earlier starts.
Here are some personal observations that I wish to make from looking at things posted here on WhiteBlaze and in various hikers' trail journals. (These observations are CLEARLY open to debate and do not necessarily apply to all early NOBO starters. The weather and trail conditions also vary greatly from year-to-year).
1. Early starters often seem to have more low mileage days (at first) when compared to those who start their hikes just a few weeks later. (Perhaps this is due to snowy & icey terrain and less hours of daylight).
2. Many early starters seem to spend quite a few "zero days" waiting out bad weather in town or in shelters/tents.
3. Early starters seem to carry more (and heavier) equipment in order to deal with the cold weather. This heavier weight would seem to slow them down a bit (and perhaps physically wear them down a bit more).
4. Early starters probably have greater overall trip costs due to having to obtain more cold weather clothing and cold weather equipment (and spending more time in town & hotels).
5. New hikers who start earlier in the season seem to have a higher drop out rate than newbies who start just a few weeks later.
Thus, it would seem to me, that people who start a NOBO thru hike in February don't really gain much of an advantage (in the long-term) over those who start their hike in the last two weeks of March (or even the first week in April). However, the costs seem to go up quite a bit for an earlier start.
I think this stuff has been thrashed out before, but it's hard to resist playing along sometimes! :-)
I personally am starting in late Feb as my wife has some plans for the fall. But in the "make lemonade out of lemons" department, I see a couple of virtues in starting a bit on the early side. One nice thing is that I anticipate a somewhat less crowded trail, to include more likely having an easy time finding shelter space to sleep and dry things out on wet days.
Related to this is at least the possibility of meeting an overall more adventurous group of folks on trail? Or maybe it just means that they have a reduced level of common sense like myself ... maybe a mix of both. Put another way, I'm guessing and hoping that the survivor subset of the early starters will be a great group of folks to get to know (assuming I'm one of those survivors).
W.r.t. the negatives cited, no doubt that the reduced daylight is a factor, as perhaps is the weather to doing a lot of miles. Sometimes unpleasant weather can increase the miles, but not so much starting out --- I at least won't be in fantastic physical condition right out of the gate. The possibility of more zero days is just the luck of the draw, but indeed a risk incurred in starting earlier.
While I agree that somewhat heavier gear might be needed, I read accounts of very cold temps extending on into March and April sometimes; I'm not sure that I'll be carrying all *that* much heavier gear than I would with a start a month or so later. My starting base weight is just over 17 pounds; that doesn't seem too bad to me for a cold weather start.
Trip costs: maybe a bit more expensive for gear, but same factor as above ... probably not that different, at least for me, and the same "more zero days" factor; hard to estimate but likely. I just wonder how much of a percentage increase in total trip cost this might be. It also depends on the individual which conditions will drive one person into town while another will (safely) continue walking.
Higher drop out rate --- I could see this going either way, depending on the experience level of the individuals involved. I wonder if there is any clear data showing that the drop-out rate is higher among earlier starters? It's a somewhat vague statement to begin with, i.e., do January starters have a higher dropout rate than Feb starters, or are we more talking about March vs. April, or just a general linear (or non-linear) increase in successful conclusion as start date advances, perhaps to some optimal start date window?
Or is this just an impression from looking at a few trail journals or talking to people or whatever? No aspersions intended, I'm just wondering how well founded this statement is.
Even though scheduling issues set my start a bit on the early side, I'm looking forward to it now!
...is this just an impression from looking at a few trail journals or talking to people or whatever? No aspersions intended, I'm just wondering how well founded this statement is.
I have absolutely nothing scientific or concrete to support ANY of the statements that I made--just some "gut-level" observations from looking at the few trail journals available and from looking at various postings here (and elsewhere).
That is why I am throwing this topic out for debate.
I plan on attempting a 2012 thru hike--and I am trying to decide if I would gain much by starting in February vs. starting late March or even early April. I don't think I would gain much from the early start. However, I am willing to be persuaded by the experienced folks here on WB.
actually I am pretty sure there are no advantages to starting a thru-hike attempt. Unless you like hiking. In which case low mileage days are not a problem. After much research I am starting to think you can't win the AT.
garlic08
01-13-2010, 10:04
From a very limited and biased sampling, some of the later starters tend to be slightly more experienced hikers. They are more confident in their ability to finish in six months or less. They start with better habits, better gear, and better weather, so the hike is faster and cheaper. That might be skewing the results you're noticing.
Spirit Walker
01-13-2010, 12:19
If I were to do another thruhike I would start in mid-April. I don't like being cold. I don't like going to bed at 5:30 because it's dark. I don't like sleeping in shelters as I would probably end up doing with an earlier and colder start. I don't like holing up for a day or longer because of bad weather.
If you start in February, you will have winter conditions off and on for the first three months of your hike. (e.g. mostly very cold with occasional nice days). If you start in April, you will probably only have winter conditions for a few weeks, if that. On my April 1 start dates, we had several nice 60 degree days, a lot of rainy 40 degree days, mixed with a few snowy and freezing days. By mid-May it was mostly warm. I started getting spring flowers by the end of April. In February, nothing is blooming. One good side to that is views through the trees. But brown and gray do get tiresome after a while when you're hoping for spring to come.
ShelterLeopard
01-13-2010, 12:27
I love snow and cold, and I want to start out slow. And I kinda would like to be done by early August, but don't really care too much about when I finish.
Well, If I were to do an early start, it would probably be because I wanted to do some winter hiking, not for any tremendous scheduling advantage. I've done it before and it can be very enjoyable overall, just like any other time of year, if you have proper gear.
Of course there will be times when you are miserable, just like when you are three-season hiking. Your days will be shorter, so fewer miles generally, but this isn't a reason to fore-go a winter hike.
You do need to take some type of camp entertainment - photo gear, books, FM radio, etc. for the long evenings. That's probably the toughest part, especially if solo.
ClassicMagger
01-13-2010, 12:52
Personally, the ONLY reason why I opted for an early hike is that I have to be on a plane on the 17th of July 2010. I've gotta finish before then if I'd like to complete this lifelong goal and I feel that leaving on January 30th provides me with the best opportunity in doing so.
I'd rather leave in April, because several of your observations I believe are true.
ClassicMagger
01-13-2010, 12:53
Well, that and the fact that I have nothing better to do then wait to get on the trail and I'm just getting way too excited...
I have my serious doubts regarding the advantage of the earlier starts.
Here are some personal observations that I wish to make from looking at things posted here on WhiteBlaze and in various hikers' trail journals. (These observations are CLEARLY open to debate and do not necessarily apply to all early NOBO starters. The weather and trail conditions also vary greatly from year-to-year).
1. Early starters often seem to have more low mileage days (at first) when compared to those who start their hikes just a few weeks later. (Perhaps this is due to snowy & icey terrain and less hours of daylight). Take it from one who learned the hard way, low mileage days to start does not put you at a disadvantage in terms of being able to finish a thruhike.
2. Many early starters seem to spend quite a few "zero days" waiting out bad weather in town or in shelters/tents. Ditto, same as above. Rest days are good in the beginning.
3. Early starters seem to carry more (and heavier) equipment in order to deal with the cold weather. This heavier weight would seem to slow them down a bit (and perhaps physically wear them down a bit more). Kind of irrelevant I think. If you assume 1. and 2. above to be true, then extra gear won't slow them down becasue they are already doing low mileage days with zeroes sprinkled in.
4. Early starters probably have greater overall trip costs due to having to obtain more cold weather clothing and cold weather equipment (and spending more time in town & hotels). Cost of an extra jacket or heavier bag is real if you don't have one, but not significant compared to the $4000 to $6000 you will spend on the thru hike overall. Cost of holing up for bad weater is also real, and you are right in that it is a definite factor if you barely have enough money to finish your hike. If that is the case, then an April start is probably best, and you can minimize paid lodging stops over your entire hike. Even with an APril start, you may have bad weather days, but luckily they will occur mostly at the start in GA and NC, where cheap lodging can be found. Once you spring for a motel in NY or CT, the cost of a few extra nights in GA won't bother you at all.
5. New hikers who start earlier in the season seem to have a higher drop out rate than newbies who start just a few weeks later. I never saw any data to back up this statement, but true or not, whether you finish your hike or not has nothing to do with whether or not anyone else finishes theirs. There is no magic formula that will help you finish your hike. Start it when you want, walk at the pace you want. The goal is not to check off a box in some To-Do List, but to do something you enjoy doing. You want to take your time and still finish by October, start in February and do low mileage days. You want to spend as little as possible, Start May 1 and take advantage of a lighter pack and good weather to do long days and finish in early September.
Thus, it would seem to me, that people who start a NOBO thru hike in February don't really gain much of an advantage (in the long-term) over those who start their hike in the last two weeks of March (or even the first week in April). However, the costs seem to go up quite a bit for an earlier start.Costs go up, but not very much. If you barely have enough money to finish your hike, and cannot absorb a few hostel days in the south, then you are definitely better off starting in April to minimize bad weather days and to carry less gear so you can make better time and finish the trail sooner. People talk about dollars per mile on the trail, but it is probalbyl closer to dollars per day. You will spend more on a 180-day hike than a 120-day hike.
Other comments (all my opinion and not intended to be taken as gospel)above in red
FROSTY: I think most people would agree with you that low mileage days and zero days are good--especially at the beginning of a thru hike. (I think that is true whether you start in early February or in late April). However, with an early start, it seems that Mother Nature tends to decide when/where your low mileage and "zero days" occur--and not the hiker. Due to a heavy snowstorm, you may get three "zero days" in a row--whether you want them at that time or not (and perhaps not at a location of your own choosing). It would seem that, with a later start, the hiker would have at least a little bit more control over "when" and "where" the zero days occur.
Blissful
01-13-2010, 15:53
After much research I am starting to think you can't win the AT.
Ha ha - the AT will mash you and bash you and try to overcome by showing its ugly white teeth (like in southern ME), but you CAN beat it and claim victory!
:)
Blissful
01-13-2010, 15:54
Well, that and the fact that I have nothing better to do then wait to get on the trail and I'm just getting way too excited...
Good for you. Have a great time, be flexible - take it one day at a time. If today is bad on the trail, realize tomorrow might be great.
Have a great time, be flexible - take it one day at a time. If today is bad on the trail, realize tomorrow might be great.
Very well said. I plan to keep repeating this to myself on those bad days:sun
A kind of random thought occurred to me along the line of this thread: I wonder if early starters tend to get less blisters starting out?? In warmer weather I just wear liner socks; in colder weather I anticipate at least sometimes wearing a wool or wool/synth blend outer sock.
I doubt anyone has specific data on this, but who knows --- for a subset of folks, perhaps, the combination of less hours per day to walk and of wearing a second pair of socks might make the foot break-in period go a bit easier. That first month or so when soft feet turn into hooves ...
I guess the flip side of the colder weather, second pair of socks algorithm would be if the feet tend therefore to stay more moist.
Having met a BUNCH of thruhikers over the years (since the 1970s), I've found that, as a whole, the bulk of hopefuls leaves earlier each year. There is even a competition as to who leaves the EARLIEST.
In the 70s and 80s most hikers started out in early to mid April, with a few leaving in late March. Since the mid 1990s it seems that the bulk of the hopefuls are starting out in early to mid March.
Starting out later means carrying less gear at the beginning, maybe more toward the end. Most hiker friendly hostels along the way have shifted along with the hiker time, so if you wanted to start in Feb. there would probably not be a problem finding lodging (you will probably spend more time [and money]) in town starting earlier, too.
You would need more and warmer clothing, a warmer and heavier sleeping bag, more food because you burn more calories carrying more gear, more fuel for cooking more food, etc.
In short, I guess you would be doing more of EVERYTHING except miles.
Oh, I see that other posters have pretty much covered this material. :)