starting point for thru 2011

[Megapixel]

I'd like to get some opinions for a locational starting point for an inside out hike, which will start on 4/22... it needs to be in Virginia, heading towards big K, then back to that point and south to Springer. We also cannot pass the point of Harpers Ferry b4 May 14th due to our daughters' wedding and getting to it (our ride can pick us up from Harpers or anywhere south on the trail). Originally we thought of starting in Waynesboro, VA, but that means we will average 8 miles for the first 3 weeks as to not pass harpers b4 the said date. I'm assuming this is too low of an estimated average for those 3 weeks. Is this a correct assumption? If so, where would be a good starting point? Damascus?

:confused:

[Megapixel]

Now that i'm thinking this thru even more, i guess a better question to help me decide is what do you think a good guess is to my mpd average over the first 3 weeks of a thru hike? Take into consideration age is late 40's, and we're talking starting in VA somewhere between damascus and waynesboro heading N.

[Blissful]

4 weeks out. I'd say maybe start at Pearisburg, VA. (best guess). You should not go more than 12 miles a day to start. SNP is easier to do mileage-wise.

[LIhikers]

I know it's not exactly what you asked, but, why not start at Harper's Ferry right after the wedding?

[Megapixel]

I know it's not exactly what you asked, but, why not start at Harper's Ferry right after the wedding?

can't. my L.O.A. from work is fixed, as is my lease ending date of 4/20/11.

[Megapixel]

4 weeks out. I'd say maybe start at Pearisburg, VA. (best guess). You should not go more than 12 miles a day to start. SNP is easier to do mileage-wise.


thanks Blissful for the thoughts. that would definitely be a safe point. since our date and area of start are somewhat fixed, we are hoping to avoid some of the mid-atlantic hot summertime as a bonus. do u think we will actually average that high (12mpd) over the first 3 weeks?
oh, also, did you get the maps yet???

[MediumRare]

Unless you have some significant long distance hiking experience to factor in, I suspect the short answer is going to be that there is just too much individual variation to predict what your hiking rate will be over the first several hundred miles.

There is much more at play here than the terrain and your fitness level or age. I've spent a great deal of time observing thru hiker speeds and have found that it's as if each hiker is driven by their own internal clock -- a clock that determines when they leave in the mornings, how often they rest and for long, how fast they walk while they're walking, when they believe they've suffered enough for one day, when they feel they need to zero, and so on.

That said, a tremendous resource regarding hiking rates is the article posted here by Map Man - "AT Hiking Rates, Section by Section" (http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php?p=170578#post170578) -- easily one of the best articles on this site. In any case, a significant quote from that article is the following:

``One thing I discovered is that if a group of hikers in this study taking four months to thru-hike takes 20% less time to get there than a group taking five months, 33% less time than six month hikers and 43% less time than seven month hikers, those figures tend to stay true for each section within the thru-hike as well.''

Which is to say that once you do hike several hundred miles you *will* be able to reasonably be able to predict the rest of the hike (barring the unusual, YMMV, etc).



Now that i'm thinking this thru even more, i guess a better question to help me decide is what do you think a good guess is to my mpd average over the first 3 weeks of a thru hike? Take into consideration age is late 40's, and we're talking starting in VA somewhere between damascus and waynesboro heading N.

Good luck with your 2011 hike -- White Jeep

[Megapixel]

thanks Medium Rare. this data is defintely helpful as a reference point. Very good stuff here.