View Full Version : Thru-hike completion rates
Doc Mike
01-14-2011, 12:24
Does any one know the completion rate comparison between nobo and sobo. Is there a difference and if so why do you think this is?
4eyedbuzzard
01-14-2011, 12:27
http://www.appalachiantrail.org/site/c.mqLTIYOwGlF/b.4805579/k.DA92/2000Milers_Facts_and_Statistics.htm
Only a 4% difference in 2009. Thought it's be higher.
Cool!
Interesting...the data shows slightly more completions NOBO than SOBO. I would have guessed differently...figured that the NOBO hike would attract more hikers who hit the trail on a whim.
If I had to guess then as to why better completion for NOBO's then...maybe more of a community of hikers as a support group. SOBO's travelled in much smaller numbers obviously and you might only see a few each day oand sometimes go a couple of days without seeing any. On the other hand, the difference in % may not even be great enough to be statistically significant.
Doc Mike
01-14-2011, 13:42
Thanks for the stats. Very interesting that completion rate consistently lower for sobo.
Doc Mike
jersey joe
01-14-2011, 14:27
Interesting...the data shows slightly more completions NOBO than SOBO. I would have guessed differently...figured that the NOBO hike would attract more hikers who hit the trail on a whim.
I too thought the completion percentages would be higher for SOBO than NOBO. My thinking was that more experienced hikers tend to hike SOBO while newbies hike NOBO...guess not!
Could it be that the numbers of hikers heading north is so much larger than the number heading south that the numbers are skewed?
If 100 NOBOs started and 90 finished there would be a 90% completion rate.
If 80 SOBOs started and 60 finished there would be a 75% completion rate.
max patch
01-14-2011, 14:42
Nobody at Springer is handing out 2,000 miler forms to be completed and submitted.
4eyedbuzzard
01-14-2011, 14:43
A lot of people think the completion stats are exaggerated as well. The tracking and reporting is all voluntary.
There definitely are SOBO dropouts, however. I recall meeting a fellow on the top of Baldpate Mountain in Maine this past year --- he had started with a big group of SOBOs and already a few had dropped out. He was waiting for the remainder to catch up to him.
I agree that it's tough to put too much stock in statistics that are essentially voluntary and in some cases driven by current dynamics --- i.e., perhaps a tired hiker doesn't bother signing a register at Neels Gap or whatever. Seems like Harpers Ferry is the one place that everyone seems to make a point of going to, getting their picture taken, etc, but I suppose that not even they catch everyone.