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Does anyone practice weather forecasting skills based on cloud types, wind direction, animal behavior, etc.?
The past few months I've been reading and trying to apply what I've learned by reading various books, primarily "Basic Illustrated Weather Forecasting" by Michael Hodgson.
I did buy an altimeter/barometer as well though I'm trying to avoid using instruments in my predictions.
It's pretty interesting - just wondering if anyone else is into it.
Hikes in Rain
02-05-2011, 16:01
I do, albeit not always successfully. Rain brings noticeable changes well before it gets to you, a slight "heaviness" to the air, a change in wind patterns, increasing humidity, and change in cloud types, and so forth. The air smells different, as well, as it gets closer. Not the usual "going to rain in a couple of minutes', but similar and fainter. Beats being blind-sided, at least quite so much.
hikerboy57
02-05-2011, 16:12
when a low is coming in, you'll notice a lot more birds feeding on bugs whose wings get weighted down with more humidity. Seeing the underside of leaves on trees usually signals a coming front as well. Red sky at noght- sailors delight, red sky at morn, sailors be warned.altimeters can be somewhat unreliable as air pressure can change from the bottom of a pass to a summit.When thunderstorms are on the way, you can usually smell the ozone in the air, and if your hair actually raises, there's lightning around.Or just go with "today will be partly to mostly cloudy with a chance opf precipitation.Temperatures will range from the 40s to the 70s depending on your location." in my next life I want to come back as a weatherman.
Before a storm, you can feel the wind direction switch, coming from the south or the east, and the increased humidity. There are a few other things one can notice when studying the weather map (when a low pressure system approaches by example) and actual observations outside. Another one (not 100% reliable) a red sunset means a nice day tomorrow, a yellow sunset into clouds means probable precipitations.
I love trying to come up with my "own" forecast.
Slo-go'en
02-05-2011, 16:26
Red sky at noght- sailors delight, red sky at morn, sailors be warned.
:-?That saying must be true out at sea someplace in the world, but it sure the heck doesn't apply to east coast weather!
A more approperate saying would be:
Red sky at night, hikers take fright, red sky at morn, get up and hike.
That is because weather fronts move west to east, so if it is clouding up in the evening, something is moving in. If it is spring time, good chance it will be raining by morning.
In New England during the summer, if the black flys suddenly become pesty in the afternoon, a T storm is coming soon.
And the most important thing to remember, no matter how bleek the morning looks, the sun (almost) always shines at noon:sun
Pedaling Fool
02-05-2011, 17:02
According to my local weather we still got some unseasonably cold weather coming and it's still somewhat chilly here for this time of year, but doesn't seem to matter to the birds. For a couple days now there have been tons of them around, especially in the mornings, late afternoon and evenings. Numerous species and they shlt all over the place; it looks like smashed blueberries everywhere.
Also noticed many of my dead plants coming back including a banana tree and I'm starting to feel pollen in my nose.
Just recently the winds seem to come more from the south, southwest as opposed from the northwest. It use to be the nor'easters I hated, but over the last few winters we've been getting more arctic blasts from the northwest. I've learned that these new arctic winds from the northwest are much worse; I'd rather go back to the good ol' nor'easters.
I try this on occasion, with middling success. The biggest problem when I'm hiking is getting good observations. Wind direction can be hard to pin down unless you are on a ridge, and it's often hard to get a good look at the sky.
If you really want to get good at it, try checking ongoing current data at a local airport or educational institution (Weather Bug has a lot of this easily available). After tracking the data for a while, try and make a prediction based on the rules in various books.
Geeky fun,
Cosmo
Wise Old Owl
02-05-2011, 18:30
There is a barometer/altimeter built into some Garmins
Otherwise it's ususally stuff like this:
http://www.ehow.com/how_2131426_read-clouds-forecast-weather.html
If you're able to see the silver underside of leaves (due to wind) rain is generally on it's way. And cows supposedly lay down right before it begins to rain.
sixguns01
02-05-2011, 18:53
Halo around the Moon usually means rain/snow the next day. Also wispy streaks of clouds also mean rain is coming soon or rain just left. Campfire smoke does not float up and away but rather stays low to the ground- low pressure front coming which could lead to rain.
Worked for me
Before satellites came along, the Navy spent over $3 million to find that the best pressure, wind, temperature methods for predicting weather were accurate about 45% of the time. The conclusion at that time was if you want to predict the weather, look out the window today, and there is a 50% chance the weather will be the same tomorrow.
I just ask myself. Am I wet? If so there's a decent chance it's raining. ;)
4eyedbuzzard
02-06-2011, 00:01
I took a meteorology course about two years ago (needed a science elective toward my degree). It's quite fascinating and complex, but it is difficult to predict more than maybe one day out without having access to NWS data. Also, given this area of New England, we have three weather patterns that tend to collide right here, so it makes it even more difficult, especially with the mountains contributing to the mix.
I've come to the conclusion though that unless the forecast is for something really miserable I'll just keep my jacket, hat, etc handy and go about what I'd like to do anyway.
swjohnsey
02-06-2011, 00:11
I have a weather rock.
garlic08
02-06-2011, 00:27
I studied weather seriously when I was a wildland firefighter. Predicting wind changes correctly could help you see you next birthday. So sure, I use that all the time when I'm hiking. I saw some altocirrus clouds one morning in NH, predicted heavy rain later that day, and witnessed my first flash flood. It works.
fiddlehead
02-06-2011, 00:30
I usually hike with a Suunto watch that has a built in barometer.
Of course, it changes with elevation so, predicting better or worse weather while hiking is moot.
However, once you reach camp, it is a good idea to look at it, memorize the number, and see how it goes (up or down) while you are there and in the morning, you will have a good idea what's going to happen.
I agree with the underside of the leaves and the ring around the moon.
Everything seems to change with location however (I'm talking thousands of miles)
Here in Thailand, it rains a lot. We tend to look for dark clouds to determine if and when.
Ashevillian
02-06-2011, 01:28
Hey 10-K, just a few observations I’ve seen: I have learned that the winds in the mountains are very unreliable to predict weather. At my house the winds always comes up the valley from the south no matter which the prevailing winds are overhead. I do watch clouds and which direction they are coming from. Morning or evening thermal winds get much stronger when the temperatures are going fluctuate greater. Mountain Laurel leaves turn downward and curl up when a cold front is moving in. Tulip Poplar leaves move up past perpendicular when rain is coming. And my favorite, they call off my childrens school when it is going to be 60 and sunny but need bread and milk sales at the Ingles grocery stores.
I pay particular attention to groundhogs here in Pennsylvania's Piedmont where I haven't seen one in months and have faith it must surely mean I can expect hepaticas before the end of March. Little could please me more.:sun
One that I've known since science class when I was in the 7th grade is that small altocumulus clouds that look like cotton balls means rain within 48 hours. This one almost never fails...
Also...
Smoke rising during fair weather and staying close to the ground indicating rainy weather approaching is another one.
Clouds moving in different directions means a storm is coming.
What I'm having the most trouble with is cloud identification with the various subtypes of cirrus, stratus and cumulus clouds - anyone know a good way to learn those?
I'd like to spend a week each with someone who was good with map and compass, handheld GPS and weather lore.. :)
(http://weather.about.com/od/photoglossaryonweather/g/altocum.htm)
Pedaling Fool
02-06-2011, 08:29
Also, given this area of New England, we have three weather patterns that tend to collide right here, so it makes it even more difficult, especially with the mountains contributing to the mix.
Everything seems to change with location however (I'm talking thousands of miles)
Here in Thailand, it rains a lot. We tend to look for dark clouds to determine if and when.
Those are two very good points. When I lived in Hawaii, weather was a very boring topic of discussion. Talk about groundhog day:) Every day was like the last.
freefall
02-06-2011, 09:24
What I'm having the most trouble with is cloud identification with the various subtypes of cirrus, stratus and cumulus clouds - anyone know a good way to learn those?
(http://weather.about.com/od/photoglossaryonweather/g/altocum.htm)
Back before I switched my major from meteorology to business, this was one of the things I had trouble with as well. Here’s how I got them down.
Stratus basically is sheeted or stretched out clouds and cumulus are better defined individual clouds. The rest, for the most part is about altitude.
Cirrus or the cirro- prefix refers to the highest clouds (16,000-43,000 ft in middle latitudes.)
1. Cirrus- wispy “mares tales”, most common high altitude, usually indicates fair weather
2. Cirrocumulus- “mackerel sky”, small rounded puffs
3. Cirrostratus- thin, sheeted, can indicate precipitation in 12-24 hours, halo possible
Alto- refers to middle level clouds (6,500-23,000 ft.)
1. Altocumulus- gray, puffy, larger/ thicker than cirrocumulus
2. Altostratus- gray to blue-gray, covers large area, can give “watery sun” look, does not produce halos
Low clouds (ground to 6,500 ft)
1. Stratus- fog that does not reach ground, usually covers entire sky, uniform gray
2. Nimbostratus- dark gray, produces light to moderate, steady precipitation
3. Stratocumulus- lumpy, in patches, light to dark gray, larger individuals than altocumulus
Vertical development (from 2000 typically-over 23,000 ft.)
1. Cumulus- floating cotton, sharp outlines and flat base, detached, some vertical
2. Cumulonimbus- large vertical development, anvil, can be single or wall cloud, moderate to heavy precipitation
beartripper
02-06-2011, 14:56
I also have some books on cloud idenification. When I hike in the mountains it is sometimes hard to see enough of the sky to get an idea of just what coulds they are. While duck hunting around Dyerburg TN which is very close to the Mississippi River I could see the sky for a very long way. This helped me in my ID of clouds.
One day there was a ring around the Sun.
Wise Old Owl
02-06-2011, 16:31
I just ask myself. Am I wet? If so there's a decent chance it's raining. ;)
What if you swim across a river?:rolleyes::D
ISBN # 0-679-40851-7
Freefall did a good explanation, but I can get confused even with the diagram to go with the terms.
Plenty of in depth description, good for the bookcase as a reference.
I once lived where there was a feedlot 20 miles east. If you caught a wiff, it was going to rain.:eek:
ISBN # 0-679-40851-7
Freefall did a good explanation, but I can get confused even with the diagram to go with the terms.
Plenty of in depth description, good for the bookcase as a reference.
I once lived where there was a feedlot 20 miles east. If you caught a wiff, it was going to rain.:eek:
Wow, I ordered this very book off Amazon this morning!
mweinstone
02-06-2011, 21:00
Does anyone practice weather forecasting skills based on cloud types, wind direction, animal behavior, etc.?
The past few months I've been reading and trying to apply what I've learned by reading various books, primarily "Basic Illustrated Weather Forecasting" by Michael Hodgson.
I did buy an altimeter/barometer as well though I'm trying to avoid using instruments in my predictions.
It's pretty interesting - just wondering if anyone else is into it.
when leaves blow up
when fish swallow rocks
when wind picks up
when temps drop
when skys darken
when hikers run
when bones hurt
when ears clog
when sound carrys further
when birds go nuts
when daylight turns to weirdlight
when bread rises lousy
when dayhikers disapere
when thunder claps
when heat lightning flashes
when rolling papers stick together
when hostels are full at noon
when tang needs scrapeing with a fork to get out of the jar
lots of ways to tell weather without tecnology. lots.
freefall
02-07-2011, 01:48
ISBN # 0-679-40851-7
Freefall did a good explanation, but I can get confused even with the diagram to go with the terms.
Plenty of in depth description, good for the bookcase as a reference.
I once lived where there was a feedlot 20 miles east. If you caught a wiff, it was going to rain.:eek:
Wow, I ordered this very book off Amazon this morning!
Sorry, thought it was at least a decent explanation in layman's terms. Those were my actual notes from class to help me identify different cloud formations. I could give all the scientific differences but that is not what was originally proposed.
After all, if you have trouble with the 11 or 12 basic ones, the other 20 or so could be difficult.
Does anyone practice weather forecasting skills based on ....... animal behavior, etc.?
.....
10-K, 2009 was a wet thru hike year and I discovered that whenever I began to see lots of little toads appear on the trail rain was not far in the offing. Seriously freaky! Apparently toads can predict earthquakes (http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1977090,00.html) however.
Does Michael Hodgson say anything about that?
fredmugs
02-07-2011, 11:48
I've noticed that it rains about an hour into a hike when the weather channel indicates no rain.
shelterbuilder
02-07-2011, 21:54
"Pocket Weather Trends" c.1974 by Weather Trends, Inc.
An over-sized pocket reference "slider" that allows you to make predictions by matching cloud patterns and wind directions for your region and time of year.
"Weathering the Wilderness", c. 1980, by Wm. E. Reifsnyder. ISBN: 87156-266-9.
"intro to weather"; "regional climatologies".
"The Sager Weathercaster", c.1969, by Raymond M. and E.F. Sager.
An actual forecasting tool, to be used in conjunction with a barometer. From my limited experience with it, it seems to be surprisingly accurate within a 12 to 24 hour timeframe.
10-K, 2009 was a wet thru hike year and I discovered that whenever I began to see lots of little toads appear on the trail rain was not far in the offing. Seriously freaky! Apparently toads can predict earthquakes (http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1977090,00.html) however.
Does Michael Hodgson say anything about that?
Actually yes... he says that frogs come out of the water when an incoming storm is approaching because the increased humidity allows them to keep their skin moist.
It might also save them from being electrocuted!
Feral Bill
02-08-2011, 00:55
Halo around the Moon usually means rain/snow the next day.
Worked for me
I have found this to be very reliable.
Immediate weather warning signs.
Learn to recognize down drafts. That much cooler breeze that suddenly approaches from the direction of heavy clouds. this is air falling off of the top of rapidly building thunderstorms from convection. Probably will start raining hard pretty soon.
Wall cloud light; usually described as green, yellow, or weird air. This is light reflected off of a wall cloud, often at the front of a supercell. Seek shelter immediately.
Hairs standing up on your arms...get off of the bald. I've seen a womans long hair stand all the way straight up on a boat.
S
Actually yes... he says that frogs come out of the water when an incoming storm is approaching because the increased humidity allows them to keep their skin moist.
Amazing! Now I know I'm not going crazy.
When I told people that they looked at me as if I said I'd been abducted by aliens and my belly button was sore from the large needle they used to take samples of .......... We'll that's a another story.
Thanks for an interesting thread!
.....I've seen a womans long hair stand all the way straight up on a boat.
YouTube link please!
YouTube link please!
Sorry, pre-tubes experience.
We were on a ferry going from Cedar Point to Ocracoke and there were low dark clouds all over the place, but no lightning. You could feel every hair on your body standing up, and then the hair on our heads started going up. One of our group had really long hair and when it started lifting into the sky, we figured it was time to go into the cabin areas. It also erased all of the cards in my wallet.
S
Wise Old Owl
02-09-2011, 00:51
OK glad we have that all cleared up... like a teen with an acne problem,,,,,
Cloud question:
I watched a bunch of cumulus clouds turn into nimbocumulus clouds. Then, as the wind picked up and before it started raining, all of the nimbocumulus clouds bunched up and the sky became a solid gray.
Did the nimbocumulus clouds morph into stratus clouds (they were at the same altitude)?
Bigger question on same theme: Can a cloud of 1 type convert to another type or do clouds dissipate and get replaced by different types?